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Study: Sixth Extinction Event Is Underway

garyisabusyguy writes: We've heard proposals in the past that a new extinction event is underway. However, a new study takes into consideration many other factors that may be tilting the data, and still comes to the inevitable conclusion that we have triggered a large die-off, and that we may become victims of it as well.

From the paper's abstract: "Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 114 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way."

The authors suggest that rapid work to avert the worst of the die-off is still possible. The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner.

294 comments

  1. The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Funny you should mention FUD in the summary, considering the entire premise is a textbook demonstration.

    We can have an intelligent and productive movement towards a clean, ecologically healthy world without the fear mongering bullshit.

    1. Re:The irony by Crashmarik · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Funny you should mention FUD in the summary, considering the entire premise is a textbook demonstration.

      We can have an intelligent and productive movement towards a clean, ecologically healthy world without the fear mongering bullshit.

      LOL the problem is that has been exactly what has been happening for the past 3000 years. We have been making progress towards a much better world. The problem is that it doesn't leave room for doomsayers and scaremongers

    2. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      How do you justify your claim of it being BS with no evidence?

      Give some evidence, better than the one in the paper (note: several studies have shown that this is a massive extinction event and we're probably the ones doing it). Or just make shit up and stick your head up your ass and go "All I see is bull shit!".

      Your call.

    3. Re:The irony by Skarjak · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Dude, you don't get it. He's a programmer or some other tech sector kind of guy. That means he's smarter and better than all the scientists. Isn't that how it works?

    4. Re:The irony by FooAtWFU · · Score: 1

      Funny that he should mention finger-pointing, too, only to point fingers at "paid trolls" and FUD as well. Physician, heal thyself.

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    5. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Less than 99.9% of all species that ever existed still exists. Man is still alive and doing better than ever before.

    6. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If we wanted to stop the die off of less fit species, halt anthropogenic global warming, etc., we would need to first kill off 95+% of humans and go back to the dawn of the agrarian times at the transition point between the hunter/gatherer and the early farmer. Good luck getting ANYONE to agree to do that. I mean even the beer was awful then!

    7. Re:The irony by NostalgiaForInfinity · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Give some evidence, better than the one in the paper (note: several studies have shown that this is a massive extinction event and we're probably the ones doing it).

      The Holocene extinction is a well known phenomenon; you can read about it here:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      The paper doesn't present any new evidence; it's a biased interpretation of existing, known data.

      Ehrlich is simply wrong when he says "[the study] shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event"; that would require 75% or more of all species to disappear; the paper only looks at a small subset of species, those most affected by humans. The paper also incorrectly extrapolates from the past into the future, but 19th and 20th century trends simply aren't relevant to the 21st century or beyond. Growth is entirely different in the 21st century, and the high extinction rates in past centuries were due to particularly susceptible species and pristine ecosystems being affected. Think of it this way: if we were actively trying to kill species, we are now reaching the point where we have killed off all the ones that are easy to kill, and if we wanted to continue, it would be a lot harder and we would have to slow down.

      Finally, the paper presents no evidence that an anthropogenic extinction or mass extinction event would be harmful to humans. Gibbons, bison, manatee, oryxes, tapirs, and all those other endangered species are wonderful to have around, and I think everybody should donate and volunteer trying to provide habitat for them. But misrepresenting their significance doesn't help: Bartel's Rat going extinct is no more a threat to human survival than the Mona Lisa going up in flames would be.

      All I see is bull shit!

      The paper is bullshit, and if you knew anything about the subject, you would recognize it as such.

    8. Re:The irony by gl4ss · · Score: 2

      they say that humans will be the first to go.

      they do not offer any reasoning whatsoever for why humans would go extinct before cows or seagulls, yet humans can hunt seagulls to extinction.

      that is - the published part of the 'study' just is 100% scaremongering without any rationale whatsoever... I'm not disputing their findings (the data), but the conclusion they come with from that data is highly suspect. and they made it just to get headlines. they made the study just for that reason.

      --
      world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    9. Re:The irony by mrbester · · Score: 1

      It would take so much effort to hunt seagulls to extinction that out wouldn't be worth it. At least around here. So, instead, the gulls will flourish on all the tasty rotten human corpses to become the next dominant race.

      --
      "Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
    10. Re:The irony by Bengie · · Score: 2

      Man is still alive and doing better than ever before.

      Famous last words. I'm feeling great! I'm poking this lion with a stick. Obviously poking a lion with a stick is not bad for my health.

    11. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      http://www.pnas.org/content/112/3/E238.short

    12. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Bartel's Rat going extinct is no more a threat to human survival than the Mona Lisa going up in flames would be

      I believe they said the same thing about bees. Yet now bees look like they play an important part into the ecosystem. Fact is, we don't know much about these *other* species because they usually don't end up on our plate, so we don't know either about how their extinction is going to affect the whole foodchain (or just something else we have not thought of).

    13. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Man is still alive and doing better than ever before.

      Lets evaluate that again after the next 60 million years, shall we? Then we would only be as old a species as the whales are. If we take another look on the issue after 125 million years and find ourselves thriving, we would be almost as successful as a species as many dinosaurs were.

    14. Re:The irony by penguinoid · · Score: 0

      We have been making progress towards a much better world. The problem is that it doesn't leave room for doomsayers and scaremongers

      Also doesn't leave room for millions of other species.

      --
      Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
    15. Re:The irony by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      We have been making progress towards a much better world. The problem is that it doesn't leave room for doomsayers and scaremongers

      Also doesn't leave room for millions of other species.

      Evolution runs on death.

    16. Re:The irony by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

      The present growth rate permits us about 400 years...

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    17. Re:The irony by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      100% scaremongering without any rationale whatsoever

      Apparently you've never done any fund raising...

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    18. Re: The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Romantic notion. Evolution actually runs on phenotype diversity driving differential rates of reproductive success.

    19. Re: The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Absolutely. And the more money you make (or think maybe you'll make someday with all the great ideas you haven't implemented), the better equipped you are to pass judgment on complex technical fields you aren't even familiar with. It has to be "clean" money, though, made from enriching shareholders... none of this working for the public good nonsense.

    20. Re:The irony by waveclaw · · Score: 1

      Ehrlich is simply wrong when he says "[the study] shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event"; that would require 75% or more of all species to disappear; the paper only looks at a small subset of species, those most affected by humans.

      I wondered if the extinction record could be used as evidence of past intelligent species on Earth. If there were any kind of prior top-shelf minds spreading across the globe one unmistakable evidence would be in how they shaped the foreign ecology they spread into.

      Tools and buildings may not survive deep geological time. We may not even recognize something created by a very different kind of intelligence as a tool. Ancient hearth and midden piles on the Amazon are mined today for rich soil and charcoal but really hide the enormous human presence on the river that disappeared overnight to mostly likely European diseases. It took a surprising amount of time for someone to figure out that stuff came from us just a few centuries ago. But a sudden biodiversity decrease without a volcanic or meteoric crater and a change in seafloor sediments might be a smoking gun.

      I would think humanity is almost a best case for leaving behind a detectable legacy. Outside of a pathogen we are the ultimate bad neighbors for a tasty species. Humans are aggressive territorial omnivores with very poor hygiene as a group. We may leave behind just enough trash to tell someone we were here long after our radio and radar signals are lost to the background noise. But what about our paleontology record?

      If we cannot even kill most of the vertebrate species then that argues against using the extinction record to track prior intelligence that may have arose here. A technological species that develops green ethics before hitting the shoot-it-if-it-moves level may leave little change at the level we can detect.

      --

      "You cannot have a General Will unless you have shared experiences. You cannot be fair to people you don't know."
    21. Re: The irony by Crashmarik · · Score: 2

      Cambrian explosion would like to have a word with you.

    22. Re:The irony by NostalgiaForInfinity · · Score: 1

      Any intelligent civilization populous and large enough to cause a detectable extinction event would leave lots of fossils. None of the fossils in the fossil record that we have found could plausibly have been intelligent even if they didn't leave any artifacts.

      In addition, there is little indication that humans will actually cause a significant extinction event. Sure, in the space of 1000 years, we cleared off the same number of species that might normally go extinct in 100000 years, but that's a blip that wouldn't even be noticed in the fossil record. We'd have to keep going for a long time before that because a geologically noticeable extinction event, let alone a mass extinction. And it looks like we're slowing down killing off things.

    23. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Evolution is not what is happening - thousands of people who are born every day would have died before having children, as they are not fit, yet we are changing that.

    24. Re:The irony by MBGMorden · · Score: 1

      What is considered "fit" isn't so simple as a longer neck or stronger muscles.

      Technology and social structure are PART of evolution. As a matter of fact it seems that such things outweigh almost any of the other "natural" advantages a species might have.

      At the end of the day, we squabble, and we can be short sighted, but the human race is the most evolved and complex species to ever walk this planet. From an evolutionary standpoint we're crowding everything else out. Honestly I don't think most species will survive long-term unless they are of use to us - either as pets, food, or work animals.

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    25. Re:The irony by MBGMorden · · Score: 2

      Any species that doesn't feel a very strong need to reproduce will eventually die out. Wanting "Babies, BABIES, BABIES!" is a required long term survival trait.

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    26. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I, for one, welcome our new Duggar overlords.

    27. Re: The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If their offspring are surviving to reproduce then they are fit.

    28. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe they said the same thing about bees. Yet now bees look like they play an important part into the ecosystem.

      Are you kidding me? The importance of bees for agriculture has been understood scientifically for more than a century at least.

      Fact is, we don't know much about these *other* species because they usually don't end up on our plate, so we don't know either about how their extinction is going to affect the whole foodchain (or just something else we have not thought of).

      "Bee" isn't a species; there are about 20000 species of bees. For comparison, the total number of species considered "threatened" is about 16000. Comparing bees to Bartel's rat is ludicrous.

      And species that are near extinction obviously cannot "affect the whole food chain" because, by definition of being "near extinction", they are rare.

    29. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't see this extinction pattern at all!!

      Considering we have never truly and accurately counted every type of animal on the planet (so many are unknown and have no names yet).

      How can they say we are in the middle of an extinction event? I think it's more likely that it's just that we are now counting more and more types of animals and making the data available.. If we count more types of critters, of course we can say more are dissappearing..

      I truely think it's just that we now have more data on the number of critters and number of types of critters that chicken little is shouting that the sky is falling the sky is falling, when in fact it's simply a case of we are just documenting what's happening better. It's not that the rate of extinction has increased its merely that it's being reported better now..

      Don't get me wrong critters are going extinct... It's just that the rate has not actually increased its just that it's being reported more...
      Just like (dare I say it) cases of rape have been increasing sharply since the seventys, when it probably hasn't. It's just that more cases are being reported.( thanks to awareness and empowerment of women)... now don't go twisting my words saying I'm advocating rape of wiping out critters.. Just saying its being reported more, thus everything is on the increase..

    30. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When you says that we have used all the farmable land

      Bullshit.

      When you point out the increasing temp and CO2 levels on the planet

      Great! I hope it continues.

      When you point out that oil is finite and will not last past ~2038 and that we have too many people

      Bullshit.

    31. Re:The irony by LinuxLuver · · Score: 1

      No....You can't. Most people can't stop eating chips and watching football long enough to even know this guy said anything.....never mind do anything about it.

      --
      Only boring people are ever bored.
    32. Re:The irony by LinuxLuver · · Score: 0

      ...or other species.

      --
      Only boring people are ever bored.
    33. Re: The irony by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      Many, many species just plain don't matter. Some bacterium that only lives in one cave in Antarctica doesn't matter to the rest of the world. Some newly hybridized daylily, judged insufficiently interesting by its creator and destroyed, matters to nobody. Lowering species diversity by stamping out a fatal disease is a good thing.

      The point is, this issue should be handled intelligently. Each species that is considered should be evaluated for its actual and potential worth to humanity and the costs involved in preserving it. Claiming that just because it exists now, it MUST be preserved, is nonsense.

      The implied claim, that we will never be able to compute the desired structure of a new antibiotic in the absence of its existence in nature, is unjustified.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    34. Re:The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Man is still alive and doing better than ever before.

      He's right... sort of... white rich men are still alive and doing better than ever before! Point proved.

    35. Re:The irony by RockDoctor · · Score: 0
      Death isn't a necessary part of evolution. Variation in reproductive success (for whatever reason) is what drives evolution.

      But I suspect that if you're touting glib comments like that, you either don't understand evolution, r aren't interested in making comments that have some connection to reality.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    36. Re:The irony by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Really ?

      So without death we would have had natural selection ?

      Please explain to me how that would work. The specter of the earth filled with every organism that ever lived is truly terrifying.

    37. Re:The irony by RockDoctor · · Score: 1
      [SIGH] Is suspect that I've got a god-squaddy (or someone who has been "educated" by god-botherers) here. But ...

      Death happens whether or not there is evolution in your species, ecology, or whatever your experimental system is. You can have an evolving system and a non-evolving system with the same death rates (organisms dying per day, percentage dying per day, pick a metric) and the death [count or rate] will not distinguish between the two systems. Deaths are not a determining characteristic of an evolving versus non-evolving system.

      Deaths are however a way of distinguishing between systems with living organisms and ones without living organisms. The death rate in a system with living organisms is not going to be lower (on the medium to long term) than in the system without living organisms.

      Since you seem to be trying to make points straight out of the goddidit handbook, I'll be very explicit about the final step : what determines whether a population evolves is whether some blood lines have higher numbers of offspring surviving to reproduce than in other bloodlines. If there is that differential, then the population will evolve to be dominated by the faster-reproducing bloodline even if the death rates for the two blood lines are identical. If there is not that differential in reproduction, then there is no evolution in that population.

      I suppose I could rebut you by asking for your example of a living system which does not have death in it. But that would leave the door open for you to take the goddidit's excuse that "I'm not a biologist", as if that were any sort of excuse for not learning about biology before making comments about it.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    38. Re: The irony by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      Who knew money would be the new driving force for evolution, is there any problem an economist with an excel spreadsheet can't solve?

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
    39. Re:The irony by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      [SIGH] Is suspect that I've got a god-squaddy (or someone who has been "educated" by god-botherers) here. But ...

      Does this tactic ever work for you ?

      BTW just what are the consequences of greater reproductive in an ecosystem with finite resources ?

    40. Re:The irony by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Does this tactic ever work for you ?

      Sometimes the god-botherer gets the message that they;re being treated with fully-justified contempt and fuck off. Not often, because almost by definition they're idiots, but it works often enough to be worth the effort. Not so often with American god-botherers because they're not used to being treated with contempt for adhering to a religion, but it still works sometimes. I think it's worth the effort.

      BTW just what are the consequences of greater reproductive in an ecosystem with finite resources ?

      There has been a lot of work done on addressing the subject. If you want to get within a couple of centuries of the present day, then this text might help you get a handle on this not exactly challenging question. After that, feel free to follow papers that cite this source until you have educated yourself to a reasonable degree.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    41. Re:The irony by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      Sometimes the god-botherer gets the message that they;re being treated with fully-justified contempt and fuck off.

      Not many people are so proud of being a bigot. I suppose that with no regard to race, creed or color was too good a thing to last very long.

      There has been a lot of work done on addressing the subject

      The answer you were looking for is extinction. I.E. DEATH.

    42. Re:The irony by niftymitch · · Score: 1

      We have been making progress towards a much better world. The problem is that it doesn't leave room for doomsayers and scaremongers

      Also doesn't leave room for millions of other species.

      The interesting component in this seems to be invasive species.
      Cats took out the Dodo bird.

      This invasive species component alone can account for a large percentage
      as the small, medium and large invaders upset the local ecology.

      Replacing one species with another reduces the resilience of the eco system
      but the modern mobility and transportation of species is new.
      Grasslands now grow grain... and feed billions, is this good or bad.

      This invasion effect is new and will so dominate the data that important perhaps smaller changes
      can be missed until too late.

      --
      Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
  2. The answer is by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 5, Informative
    No, we can't get past the naysayers.

    And between the pecuniary interests, the people who cannot imagine anything beyond 3 months, and the folks who actually want the world to end, via either religion outcome, or just wanting to see the world burn - I suspect we're going to drive the bus off that extinction cliff while singing happy days are here again.

    --
    The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    1. Re:The answer is by kheldan · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You and I, sir, are apparently of like minds, even if we are brothers only in our cynicism; I, unfortunately, completely agree with your asessment: Humanity, in general, is suffering from a case of extreme, chronic myopia, and it could very likely end in discovering we're about to walk off a cliff only after we've walked off it.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    2. Re:The answer is by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      ... and on the way down, we'd be sued for an unauthorised public performance.

      Maybe it really is time to let the ants have a go.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    3. Re: The answer is by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      We gave their ancestors - worms - a go and look what happened... :p

    4. Re:The answer is by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      we're going to drive the bus off that extinction cliff while singing happy days are here again.

      I *love* that song. And boy, look at that wonderful view!

    5. Re:The answer is by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      we're going to drive the bus off that extinction cliff while singing happy days are here again.

      I *love* that song. And boy, look at that wonderful view!

      It's morning again in America.....

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    6. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      You and I, sir, are apparently of like minds, even if we are brothers only in our cynicism; I, unfortunately, completely agree with your asessment: Humanity, in general, is suffering from a case of extreme, chronic myopia, and it could very likely end in discovering we're about to walk off a cliff only after we've walked off it.

      Seriously? You base this on a prediction from Paul Erlich, the guy who is famous for always being wrong about his pronouncements of gloom and doom?

    7. Re:The answer is by gladius17 · · Score: 1

      "No, we can't get past the naysayers." The problem isn't "naysayers." The problem is simpletons who see there is some kind of problem, but who are easily duped into believing in scams like "global warming", and are easily swayed into becoming zealots who persecute others for being "deniers" of their pet theory, all while failing to observe and understand the real serious problems (like the past 15,000+ years of human agriculture; and no, I don't need any corrections on the timeline from the peanut gallery) and think of real solutions to those before they end in complete disaster.

    8. Re:The answer is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He wasn't wrong, because his predictions about famine were conditioned on factors remaining the same--they didn't. We improved crop yields through new varieties, fertilizers, irrigation, etc. and got rid of a lot of smog and pollution.

      A lot of those solutions were researched and put into effect because Erlich and people like him pointed out that we were speeding toward a cliff, and stepping on the gas instead of the brake.

    9. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      He wasn't wrong, because his predictions about famine were conditioned on factors remaining the same--they didn't. We improved crop yields through new varieties, fertilizers, irrigation, etc. and got rid of a lot of smog and pollution.

      Yes, he was wrong. Regardless of the ASSUMPTIONS he made, he made public predictions, and they were all rather uproariously wrong.

      A lot of those solutions were researched and put into effect because Erlich and people like him pointed out that we were speeding toward a cliff, and stepping on the gas instead of the brake.

      Concrete example? Citations?

      Even if, as you assert, his failed predictions helped, the fact remains that they are failed predictions. Still, I'd be interested to see any of them causally linked to remediating changes.

    10. Re:The answer is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Concrete example? Citations?

      Huh? Jane, you've repeatedly said that you don't need to provide citations. Don't you feel like a hypocrite asking others for citations? Or are you just a psychopath who can't experience those emotions?

    11. Re:The answer is by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      The problem isn't "naysayers."

      That's easy for naysayers like you to naysay

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    12. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Same old out-of-context bullshit.

    13. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Let's be clear about this: if you want to prove your point, and the relevant information about it is not right in front of everybody or commonly known, yes indeed, you should cite references.

      But in the situation you are referring to, I made it very clear that I am not interested in proving it to you at this time. Since I'm not trying to prove it, I don't have any obligation to cite anything.

      The two situations are not even remotely similar, and your comment is yet another example of your habitual out-of-context fallacy.

    14. Re:The answer is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... in the situation you are referring to...

      Actually, I was referring to the situation where you fantasized about washing balls and insulted a "fucking stupid" "dumbshit" rather than just giving a citation: http://slashdot.org/comments.p...

    15. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Another good one for the records.

      "Fantasized about washing balls"??? Not only is that a distortion of what I wrote and why, it was clearly intended maliciously.

      More of that would make my archive of your bullshit more juicy, but it rather violates truth.

      Your true colors have been coming out lately, and they're pretty ugly. You have explained openly before why you dislike me (which, again, I have on record) but your belief that it is justification for libel or slander or other forms of character assassination you have been attempting, I assure you that the law disagrees.

    16. Re:The answer is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ..."Fantasized about washing balls"??? Not only is that a distortion of what I wrote and why...

      Why did you write what you wrote then, instead of just giving the fucking stupid dumbshit a citation?

      ... Your true colors have been coming out lately, and they're pretty ugly. You have explained openly before why you dislike me (which, again, I have on record) but your belief that it is justification for libel or slander or other forms of character assassination you have been attempting, I assure you that the law disagrees.

      It must be pretty ugly being surrounded by so many fucking stupid dumbshits. You don't seem to dispute that this is an example where you've said you don't need to provide citations. Again, don't you feel like a hypocrite asking others for citations? Or are you just a psychopath who can't experience those emotions?

    17. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Why did you write what you wrote then, instead of just giving the fucking stupid dumbshit a citation?

      Thanks. Now I don't have to bother to look it up, and you proved me right again.

      It must be pretty ugly being surrounded by so many fucking stupid dumbshits. You don't seem to dispute that this is an example where you've said you don't need to provide citations.

      I don't see very many from here. Mostly just the one, who's too stupid to realize when he's lost the argument.

      Again, don't you feel like a hypocrite asking others for citations? Or are you just a psychopath who can't experience those emotions?

      Not in the slightest, when I'm not interested in proving something. If I'm not trying to prove something, I'm also not obligated to provide supporting evidence. I've explained this to you before.

      You, on the other hand, made some serious assertions and YOU were supposed to be supporting them with facts here, remember? To try to prove yourself correct? Which you haven't done. You've just devolved into name-calling again.

      Why? Was it because you were just shown to be wrong about Hayhoe? You hate that, don't you? That has tended to be when you have resorted to direct insults. Apparently to distract people (or yourself, maybe?) that you lost again.

    18. Re:The answer is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait, who was just shown to be wrong about what? And what does that have to do with you refusing to provide citations? Since you never explained why you fantasized about washing that fucking stupid dumbshit's balls rather than just giving him a citation, there wasn't any distortion. And don't you feel like a ridiculous hypocrite complaining about all the direct insults from fucking stupid dumbshits?

    19. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Since you never explained why you fantasized about washing that fucking stupid dumbshit's balls rather than just giving him a citation, there wasn't any distortion.

      You distorted again right there. Where was there any indication in the actual sentence that was written, that anybody was "fantasizing" about anything? Nothing of the sort exists, nor would a reasonable person think it was even implied.

      You just demonstrated clearly, once again, how you make defamatory statements up as you go, out of nothing that existed before. That's distortion and misreprentation. Rather egregious distortion and misrepresentation at that, and quite dishonest. But again, I've come to expect that kind of behavior from you.

    20. Re:The answer is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So why did you write about washing that fucking stupid dumbshit's balls rather than just giving him a citation?

    21. Re:The answer is by Sardaukar86 · · Score: 1

      and no, I don't need any corrections on the timeline from the peanut gallery)

      Of course not. Nobody would dare challenge the conclusions of a self-aggrandizing jackass who just *knows* all this 'climate change' phooey is little more than a money grab aimed at the 'sheeple', those poor fools.

      --
      ..Mullah or Pope, Preacher or Poet, who was it wrote: "Give any one species too much rope and they'll fuck it up"?
    22. Re:The answer is by imidan · · Score: 1

      Jesus. Why do you even engage with this fool?

    23. Re:The answer is by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Jesus. Why do you even engage with this fool?

      Because he has a habit of making false public accusations and other misrepresentations, and I want others to see how wrong he is.

      That, and to save his rantings "for posterity". And maybe for other purposes, as I see fit.

      One thing I want to make clear is that I am NOT baiting him. He's the master baiter. I am just responding to his own comments. I have no reason to bait or troll him... I'd far rather he just went away.

    24. Re:The answer is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When you're done writing about a master baiter, posterity might want to know why you wrote about washing that fucking stupid dumbshit's balls rather than just giving him a citation.

      How else could posterity decide whether Jane's public accusation of a malicious "distortion of what I wrote and why" was a true or false public accusation?

  3. Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Most of the earth's species offer nothing other than potential diversity in case of another type of disaster. If most of earth's animal species die off, as long as the food chain is preserved for the plants/animals that directly benefit us, then most people will not care.

    Personally, I would like to see some data on what exactly is "dying off". For example, if it's a random type of tree frog in the amazon because of logging, that's one thing. If it's something that will cause the massive collapse of society because I can't get a steak... That's another thing entirely.

    Anyway.. Adapt, or die.

    1. Re:Does it matter? by Z00L00K · · Score: 4, Informative

      Considering that most of Earth is overrun by humans and that many species are in minority and located to small shrinking areas it's a cause for concern. Only species that benefits humans or live in areas inhospitable for humans have a better chance of survival.

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    2. Re:Does it matter? by Crashmarik · · Score: 0

      http://all-that-is-interesting...

      That is a map of the worlds population density.
      Before we start 3/4 of the world is ocean
      and roughly 70% of the rest is barely populated.

      So when you say most of the world is overrun, you must be projecting where you live on to everywhere you have never been.

    3. Re:Does it matter? by fnj · · Score: 2

      Big whoop. Nobody lives in the desert or in arctic tundra.

    4. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Barely populated but still heavily manipulated by humans.

      It only takes a couple of people to run a 3,000 acre farm but the entirety of that 3,000 acres is strictly for human purposes and quite hostile to most animals (a monoculture alone will cause numerous issues).

    5. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, and 3,000 acres is considered a family farm in that part. Corporate mega-farms are closer to 25,000 acres.

    6. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most of the earth's species offer nothing other than potential diversity in case of another type of disaster. If most of earth's animal species die off, as long as the food chain is preserved for the plants/animals that directly benefit us, then most people will not care.

      Personally, I would like to see some data on what exactly is "dying off". For example, if it's a random type of tree frog in the amazon because of logging, that's one thing. If it's something that will cause the massive collapse of society because I can't get a steak... That's another thing entirely.

      Anyway.. Adapt, or die.

      Sea crabs for one giving this morning's news. An entire beach full of sea crabs washed up on the California coast this weekend. I made a joke that someone somewhere obviously chose "The big gun" and not "The Good Package" like they were supposed to, but John Ritter is dead so no one will likely get the movie reference. Then I see this article.

    7. Re:Does it matter? by Crashmarik · · Score: 0

      Thank you, Long ago I realized environmentalists didn't care if their arguments had any facts. It's very hard for me to convey this to others, but people like you do a very good job.

    8. Re:Does it matter? by thrich81 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "Overrun" can mean more than just someone having a house covering a spot. In that 3/4 of the world that is ocean, look at how several of the commercially important fisheries have collapsed. And the big whales? They had all those oceans to live in and it didn't do them any good once technological humans decided they had useful oil and parts. Just because an area is big and no one has a house there doesn't mean it hasn't been effectively "overrun". As it is now, we need a lot of open land, water, and air to provide the resources we want and to take back the trash we create. Those areas are "overrun".

    9. Re:Does it matter? by Crashmarik · · Score: 0

      Really ? heavily manipulating the oceans ? Why not, give it enough I am sure there will be a definition of the term that can work for you.

    10. Re:Does it matter? by kheldan · · Score: 1
      Wow. Speaking of 'trolls', if I wasn't 99% sure you were one, AC, I'd have to say 'see someone about that crippling case of myopia you've got, because apparently you can't see past the end of your own nose'. Otherwise you may as well be saying 'there is no point to further scientific research, we've discovered everything worth discovering', or 'there is no point to developing new technologies, the ones we have now do everything we need', or 'there is no point to medical research, we cure enough diseases and save enough lives with what he have currently'. Of course the same people who say these sorts of things also would have been likely in the past to say 'why abolish slavery, things are fine the way they are', or 'who cares if the Earth is flat or round', or 'of course the Earth is the center of the Universe, isn't it obvious from the way the Sun circles around us?'. Sure thing, buddy, let's decrease the biodiversity of the entire planet without actually understanding what it is we're allowing to be destroyed (or actively destroying ourselves, as the case may be)? What we don't know won't hurt us, right? Blissful (read as: willful) ignorance, what a blessing that is! Thinking like this is right up there with certain religious types, who believe the Earth is only a few thousand years old, is here entirely for our (ab)use, and that it won't matter what we do to it, it's all going to go away soon and the Faithful will be whisked away to Heaven. What utter bullshit! Even the Pope is coming out and saying we must take proper care of the Earth! And if I may make a poor joke on that note: It must be a goddamned cold day in Hell, because I'd never have thought in a million years that the Catholic Church would come down so firmly on the side of science, given their history with it!

      Anyway.. with regards to this:

      The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner

      You want to do an end-run around the 'paid trolls, FUD and finger-pointing'? Maybe we need to shut off the Internet for a few decades, because over the last 20 years it went from a potential Font of Wisdom to a breeding ground for trolls, FUD-spreaders, and finger-pointing. I'm seriously beginning to think we were better off when it was only accessible by academia and the government, and not every random whack-job with $50 a month to spend.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    11. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "many species are in minority" -- Say what? Have You seen an Ant colony? Now imagine how many colonies there are. Based on that alone, You should recheck Your math.

    12. Re:Does it matter? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Big whoop. Nobody lives in the desert or in arctic tundra.

      Also, very few people live in the rain forests, the taiga, the steppes, etc. The population is becoming more concentrated, as the world is becoming more urban. Big areas of Siberia have been emptying out. Many small towns on the American prairie are dying, as young people head off to the cities. If you want to preserve wild habitat, the best thing to do is to encourage even faster urbanization, especially in the third world. Urban people have a smaller ecological footprint, and also have fewer children.

    13. Re:Does it matter? by guises · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Okay. If we want to start with the ocean, which is 3/4 of the world: marine fish biomass has dropped by 80% over the last century.

    14. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Considering that most of Earth is overrun by humans and that many species are in minority and located to small shrinking areas it's a cause for concern.

      That's about as rational as saying "Given that the world is full of sinners, the possibility of God raining down fire and brimstone is cause for concern."

    15. Re:Does it matter? by itsenrique · · Score: 4, Informative

      Over fishing, petrochemical spills/pollution, and indirectly raising the temperature...

    16. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only species that benefits humans or live in areas inhospitable for humans have a better chance of survival.

      Cows would claim that this is a wonderful era.

    17. Re:Does it matter? by The+Living+Fractal · · Score: 1

      Curious to know how you measured this 80% figure. A source would be nice.

      --
      I do not respond to cowards. Especially anonymous ones.
    18. Re:Does it matter? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Nobody lives in the desert

      Tens of millions of people in Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, and southern California disagree with you. And that doesn't count all the people living in the Middle East and northern Africa.

    19. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "Oooh, so Mother Nature needs a favor?! Well maybe she should have thought of that when she was besetting us with droughts and floods and poison monkeys! Nature started the fight for survival, and now she wants to quit because she's losing! Well I say, hard cheese"

    20. Re: Does it matter? by Rujiel · · Score: 1

      "breeding ground for trolls" He said paid trolls. There is no "breeding ground" for paid trolls, they all arrive at once and hit the ground running. Paid trolls are a proven fact, and they don't even try to hide their nature here on slashdot.

    21. Re:Does it matter? by guises · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Well, I got it from this XKCD. And he got it from this report by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The trouble is, the AAAS seems to have changed around their website since then and the report is either no longer available or is just no longer findable by me.

      So there you are. I'm willing to trust the XKCD guy, he's always been pretty diligent, but you can go hunting for the original document if you'd like.

    22. Re:Does it matter? by ahodgson · · Score: 1

      For example, if it's a random type of tree frog in the amazon because of logging, that's one thing. If it's something that will cause the massive collapse of society because I can't get a steak... That's another thing entirely.

      Actually, the best way to make sure something doesn't go extinct is to make it taste good.

    23. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      There's a study of oysters. down 88%. A model claiming cod biomass is down 96%

    24. Re:Does it matter? by Demanufacture · · Score: 1

      If you're taking ethical advice from C. Montgomery Burns then you're probably on the wrong side of the argument

      --
      --- "When you're strange"
    25. Re:Does it matter? by The+Living+Fractal · · Score: 1

      Thank you for sharing. IMHO it seems a stretch to say that the entire marine fish biomass in the world's oceans has declined by 80% based on a URL that is clearly indicating "fisheries". I am sure fisheries have declined but I doubt that extrapolates into a decline for everything else. Could even mean other fish species are enjoying a boon of food because we're removing some of their competition from the equation. Just thinking out loud.

      --
      I do not respond to cowards. Especially anonymous ones.
    26. Re:Does it matter? by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      Looking at the pictures, it appears that most of the Earth is inhospitable for humans and not overrun by them at all. We're still picking low hanging fruit (and have only dug about 5 miles deep) when it comes to the abundance the planet has to offer. All the water we use is less than 1% of what is available and about 11% of the total land surface is used for agriculture.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    27. Re:Does it matter? by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 2, Informative

      If most of earth's animal species die off, as long as the food chain is preserved for the plants/animals that directly benefit us, then most people will not care.

      The "food chain" is actually a complex food web, and the more we prune it back, the less resilient it becomes. If it actually turns into a chain, we are one broken link away from disaster. That is one of the reason why diversity is good. Another is that plants and animals provide an enormous amounts of services, many of which we don't even understand. We know about mangroves protecting coasts and filtering water, trees reducing soil erosion and landslides, earthworms improving soil quality, legumes (or rather their symbiotic Rhizobia) providing nitrogen fixation, and most plants photosynthesising to provide us with oxygen and most of the biosphere with complex carbohydrates. But we are far away from a full understanding - we couldn't even keep Biosphere 2 running for a few years.

      In this situation, allowing the biosphere to degrade is like a man cutting firewood from the frame of his house - sure, maybe that one piece is not crucial.

      --

      Stephan

    28. Re:Does it matter? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      Urban people have a smaller ecological footprint

      Citation needed.
      There's an ecological optimum somewhere between a hamlet and a megalopolis. If you live in a remote place, you need to take the car for many basic needs. If you live in a huge city, you need to import all your food, and export all your waste.

    29. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You may want to give the local university a call, get in touch with the Statistics Department, and ask one of their professors how such a projection might be made - trust me, you'll be surprised. I was.

    30. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, the best way to make sure something doesn't go extinct is to make it taste good.

      Actually, that's not true. According to many press releases of the activists for the indigenous peoples of New Zealand, the Maori never hunted anything to extinction. According to the archaeological record, however, the Moa was most likely hunted to extinction.

      I also recall when one government department executive was arrested for fraud, one activist went on TV and announced that Maori would never do anything like that. I always felt that it was simply because - at that time - they had not been given a chance. Not because Maori are inherently thieves or bludgers, but most simply because Maori happen to be human.

      Setting yourself aside and above others of a different race is often used to dehumanise them.

    31. Re: Does it matter? by kheldan · · Score: 1

      I don't care if they're 'paid' or not, there should be any such thing as 'trolls' to start with. All they are is destructive.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    32. Re:Does it matter? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget rats.

    33. Re: Does it matter? by Rujiel · · Score: 1

      There's a meaningful difference. but sweet platitudes bro

    34. Re: Does it matter? by kheldan · · Score: 1

      Apparently you're a shitty troll, too, and as such you can fuck the fuck off.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    35. Re: Does it matter? by Rujiel · · Score: 1

      Because all trolls go out of their way to out the fact that there are paid trolls among us, as i have? How does that make any sense? What i said about it is a lot more specific than your banal response of "trolling sucks derp"

    36. Re:Does it matter? by ahodgson · · Score: 1

      Obviously I meant in the modern world. I have no doubt hunter-gatherers killed off many species.

    37. Re:Does it matter? by Sardaukar86 · · Score: 1

      Do you understand the use of the word 'many' and why the writer chose this instead of the word 'all'?

      --
      ..Mullah or Pope, Preacher or Poet, who was it wrote: "Give any one species too much rope and they'll fuck it up"?
  4. It's not really so bad. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    I think the human species as a whole is well positioned to make it through this extinction event and come out even stronger than we are right now. It's really about competition and natural selection being two fundamental characteristics of nature. In a system such as this, if a 'super' organism evolves, eventually it is the ultimate end result it will dominate the species space at the expensive of lots of others who are less adaptable or capable. There's nothing un-natural about this, it's and end stage of the system that got us to this point. A lot of the species that exist right now should be identified, analyzed, sequenced, their DNA digitally saved, and then allowed to fade from the ecosystem into the dustbin of history along with the mammoth and the dodo. A fully 'mature' world may very well consist of a single dominant intelligent species, with only a handful of supporting species. No need to panic about this or try to alter the natural progression of things. We should celebrate that we've finally made it this far as a world.

    1. Re:It's not really so bad. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Uh, you ever hear of something called the food chain? Let me look that up for you... https://en.wikipedia.org/?titl...
      It would cause a cascading effect if species start dying off, unless you prefer soylent green.

  5. Paul Ehrlich? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 4, Informative

    Is this the same Paul Ehrlich who became famous for predicting that overpopulation would kill off humanity long before we would see the 21st Century? Of course environmentalists, in bestowing upon us their latest set of apocalyptic "predictions" would pick someone who has been spectacularly wrong so often in the past.

    1. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      “By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people ... If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000." Ehrlich, Speech at British Institute For Biology, September 1971.

      "In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish." Ehrlich, speech during Earth Day, 1970

      http://reason.com/blog/2010/12/30/cracked-crystal-ball-environme

    2. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 1

      "Not only that, but here's the stuff I want us ALL to do to fix the problem.. If we all work together to do exactly what I say...." etc. etc. etc.

    3. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by catsRus · · Score: 2

      I am an old grey beard and they were selling this bull and many other FUD stories in the 70's. None of it came to be. Seems to me we are going to get to relive all the paranoia and BS again. Nothing new in this old world.

    4. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I guess the summary forgot to add one other obstacle: cynicism with its only goal of creating a suicidal/homocidal mindset.

      CAPTCHA: reasoned

    5. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by alfredo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      How much of our problems stem from overpopulation? I think he was right about the dangers of overpopulation, but his timeline, and efforts to mitigate the damage was off. I remember when deer overran our area. They denuded large swaths of land. By the time the local governments got around to doing something to cull the herd, disease and hunger took them down. The human race will be culled either by self discipline (ZPG), or war, disease, and famine. Which course is the best in your opinion?

      --
      photosMy Photostream
    6. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      THe 70s were only 40 years ago. And I'm pretty sure that 300 years ago, someone on Easter Island had the same attitude as you.

      And much of that "bull" and FUD is coming to pass.

    7. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My vote is for war, disease, and famine.

      Survival of the fittest, culling of the weak. It's nature's way. Who are we to interfere with nature.

    8. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      I remember when deer overran our area. They denuded large swaths of land. By the time the local governments got around to doing something to cull the herd, disease and hunger took them down.

      Was this back when everyone was whinging that hunting was evil and shouldn't be allowed?

      Note that hunting seasons pretty much eliminate that sort of problem, unless of course you make owning firearms illegal....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    9. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Alomex · · Score: 3, Informative

      How much of our problems stem from overpopulation?

      Almost none. Human indicators have improved markedly over the last forty years while world population doubled.

      I think he was right about the dangers of overpopulation,

      He was particularly wrong about this, just like other Malthusians, and just like all of them 200 years of wrong predictions have made no difference in their opinions.

    10. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      Note that hunting seasons pretty much eliminate that sort of problem, unless of course you make owning firearms illegal....

      So coming back full circle to our topic, you're advocating hunting season on our excess human population? What a fine (if modest) proposal.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    11. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Well, that was an impressive leap!

      so, got any evidence of overpopulation among humans? Other than a number that frightens you badly?

      Since I was a kid, population has more than doubled, but people are living longer, there are fewer famines (other than those engineered by governments to get rid of undesired minorities), fewer plagues, fewer wars. Basically, double-triple the population but living better than any time in history....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    12. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by drinkypoo · · Score: 0

      so, got any evidence of overpopulation among humans? Other than a number that frightens you badly?

      I think the planet can support more humans than are on it now, but not like this. I don't even think we have to become vegetarians. We do, however, have to stop shitting where we eat... well, more to the point, where we drink. And start processing our shit, and then putting the results where our food comes from. That's the natural cycle that everything our food supply depends upon evolved to exist within, and even if we can replace it (e.g. with indoors aeroponics etc.) there exist good reasons to prevent coming to that pass — if we still can.

      Basically, double-triple the population but living better than any time in history...

      ...but predicated upon endless growth. Barring plans for getting humans off this mudball and into space, an idea which I am wholeheartedly behind but which is clearly not coming to fruition any time soon, endless growth is unsustainable.

      I think we're overpopulated for our current level of sphincter control. So in summary, my position is that we either need to get our assholes in check, or diminish the number of assholes.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    13. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by alfredo · · Score: 1

      You understand the term carrying capacity? All the advances in agriculture mean little when the aquifers are emptying faster than they can be recharged. Just because Ehrlich was wrong doesn't mean we aren't facing a crisis.

      --
      photosMy Photostream
    14. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Alomex · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I understand the term perfectly well, and the carrying capacity of the earth is at least 15 perhaps 20 billion. Currently we produce more food that we can consume. The problem is we distribute it rather badly.

      In terms of water, we wast so much of it, that this is not really a problem. Call me back when we have ripped out our lawns, moved to high efficiency European washing machines, 1 gallon toilets, drip irrigation, etc. Then I'll believe your claims of water shortages.

      Just because Ehrlich was wrong doesn't mean we aren't facing a crisis.

      Ah crisis, the most over used word of the environmental movement. Everything is a crisis. Ebola is a crisis of a million dead with an actual final tally of thousands, rape on campus (which happens at lower rates than elsewhere) is a crisis, water "shortages" are a crisis even though Israel seems to manage fine (though not without trouble and ingenuity), population is a crisis even though most countries are moving rapidly towards below replacement fertility levels .

    15. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      And when we don't have enough oil for everybody, we'll have a huge fucking problem.
      Climate change and peak oil wouldn't be a problem at all with less than 1 billion humans on the planet.

    16. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 0

      carrying capacity of the earth is at least 15 perhaps 20 billion

      No it isn't. It's just not possible to sustain our current world population and living standard without oil.

      Israel seems to manage fine (though not without trouble and ingenuity)

      Yes! Israel just takes all the water it wants, and leaves droplets to occupied Palestinian territories. How ingenious!

    17. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's a big difference between Paul Erhlich's book deal and a team of scientists doing their best to use the most conservative numbers.

      The real surprise is that people can think that we can alter the fact of the planet so much, and not kill off something really important. Iraq used to be full of cedar forests so thick the light didn't touch the ground, as you might note reading the Epic of Gilgamesh.

    18. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Alomex · · Score: 3, Informative

      We have plenty of oil, or did you miss the current drop in price? and if that wasn't enough solar continues to drop in price along an exponential curve.

      As for the Israeli situation, here's the reality:

      A major national effort to desalinate Mediterranean seawater and to recycle wastewater has provided the country with enough water for all its needs, even during severe droughts. More than 50 percent of the water for Israeli households, agriculture and industry is now artificially produced. [New York Times]

    19. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by tompaulco · · Score: 1

      I am an old grey beard and they were selling this bull and many other FUD stories in the 70's. None of it came to be. Seems to me we are going to get to relive all the paranoia and BS again. Nothing new in this old world.

      They will claim that it was due to their warning that those predictions did not come true and that we should pay attention this time, too.

      --
      If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
    20. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also note, I can't think of a single country that has made hunting firearms illegal. You don't need an AK-47 to shoot a deer.

    21. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      The largest increases in population are always for countries with a late agrarian economy. You need to pop a large brood of children to help out in the fields and then to provide for you in old age. When a country industrializes, the birthrate always drops sharply. Early in the last century we worried about Japan and its "teeming millions." More recently it was China, but it too is going through the same transition with industrialization.

    22. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      We have plenty of oil, or did you miss the current drop in price?

      Yes, a price drop automatically means there will be enough oil for everyone forever.
      It has nothing to do with OPEC setting prices and the US destroying their environment in order to get the last few drops available.

      As for Israel : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
      I guess I know where a big part from the other 50% is coming from.

    23. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Alomex · · Score: 1

      It is clear you've reached a conclusion and will reject all evidence to the contrary: you rather go on a side tangent about the Israel-Palestinian conflict than pause and think about the main point: 50% of Israel water comes from artificial sources, up from 15% less than a decade ago.

      Talk of water shortage is nonsense on the face of these figures.

    24. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      Back to the original point : it's just not possible to sustain 15-20 billion people on Earth. Time will tell if 7 billion are even possible.
      Moreover, you cannot extrapolate Israel example to the whole world. This country gets a lot of support from the USA and Europe, and doesn't see anything wrong with colonization.

    25. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Since I was a kid, population has more than doubled, but people are living longer, there are fewer famines (other than those engineered by governments to get rid of undesired minorities), fewer plagues, fewer wars. Basically, double-triple the population but living better than any time in history....

      SOME people are for sure. But when you factor in 700M people in India in poverty, most of rural china, big chunks of Africa, etc I'd bet a good portion of that population expansion has quite a shitty life. Can the planet support 20B people? Sure. But we might have to live in crates (like the already do in some cities in China) and live on antibiotic vitamin shakes. We've already got 8B people. Thats 8,000 on in a millions for a million different things. Are we really that precious?

    26. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He was particularly wrong about this, just like other Malthusians, and just like all of them 200 years of wrong predictions have made no difference in their opinions.

      You're at least right about his predictions about how many people would die of hunger per decade. He was too low by a factor of about 2.

      The really, really annoying part of the quote is that it's fairly obvious that it's conditional, with one of the preceding, or following sentences containing the conditions, but no-one seems to have the full text. All I can find are the excerpts that people love to hold up as an example of an incorrect prediction. Trouble is, without the rest of it, who can tell what the conditions are, and whether they were met or not.

      For example, the population of the UK was under 60 million in 2000, not 70 million. I'm pretty sure his argument was along the lines of "If trend X and trend Y" continue... By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people". The fact is, certain trends that existed back in 1970 didn't continue.

      It's interesting too that certain predictions from the time that are often laughed at as not having come true actually have. For example, predictions that the amount of sunlight hitting the earth would be reduced by human pollution were completely correct. It has measurably decreased, especially over land. Nevertheless, it's frequently trotted out as a crazy prediction that didn't come true.

    27. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Alomex · · Score: 1

      it's just not possible to sustain 15-20 billion people on Earth.

      [Citation needed]

      People were saying the exact same thing 70 years ago, except with "it is not possible to feed 7 billion people".

      And guess what? here we are feeding all 7 billion. Just because you cannot see a way to sustain 15 billion people it doesn't mean one doesn't exist.

    28. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      I'm talking about a sustainable society. There's not much sustainable about the way we do things right now. It's still too early to say if those people were indeed wrong when they said that it's not possible to feed 7 billion people.

      Heavy smokers also tend to think that risks are grossly overestimated, and that there's no problem in smoking one pack a day for 30 years. 5 years later, many are dead after a long and painful illness.

    29. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Alomex · · Score: 1

      I agree that at present we are not doing our best to have a sustainable society, but we easily could: increase recycling efforts, switch over to renewable energy sources, live in denser configurations, change diet to be less meat based.

      In other words, that currently we are not living sustainably doesn't mean in the future we couldn't. There really is no solid evidence to suggest that if we put our hearts and minds to it we couldn't do it.

      And you know what? we have it even better: population is likely to top at 9 billion and then start falling rapidly. See Japan where population is falling at a rate of .250K a year and likely to be aroun 30% less than present by 2060. Most other countries in the world are tracking the Japanese curve, some a mere few years behind others a couple of decades, but essentially every one is tracking it, from Germany to the fastest growing countries in Africa.

    30. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by swillden · · Score: 1

      Heck, some European countries are beginning to get fairly concerned about population decline. Denmark has gone so far as to to run PSAs encouraging people to have children. Globally, it seems pretty clear that we've already passed the peak birthrate and it seems that we can expect it to continue dropping. Although births are declining the total population will continue to rise for a while because right now the world demographics are heavily weighted to the young end, so population will rise as the age distribution is "filled out". We're on course to hit a peak of about 10 billion people, sometime around 2040-2050. This assumes we don't make great breakthroughs in life extension.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    31. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      Yes, now we begin to agree.
      It's true that we could live sustainably, provided we stop using cars and planes for everything, we live in smaller flats, we eat local and seasonal food, and stop buying so much crap.
      Even though we could, the real question is if we ever will do so before it's too late.
      The heavy smoker could also stop smoking any day in theory. But in practice?

      I hope you're right for the demographic curve. I'm not so optimistic. WW2 didn't change much the demographics curve for example. You really need a shitload of famine/war/drought to kill a few billion people.

    32. Re:Paul Ehrlich? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's true. The Sand Nigger has the UK by the balls. Much as I used to respect the UK they now seem to be getting exactly what they deserve as a bunch of PC softcocks.

  6. Do we survive? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner"

    No.

    Got any other questions?

  7. Why focus only on the negative? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The population of certain species such as wheat, corn, and chicken have increased 1000-fold with the intervention of man.

    1. Re:Why focus only on the negative? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which breeds more biodiversity destroyers

    2. Re:Why focus only on the negative? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So if it all becomes simple bacteria, the count of that will be a million times higher, therefore the good news is that there were vastly more living things in the first billion years of the earth than today!

      Talk about a dumb fucking claim, asshat.

    3. Re:Why focus only on the negative? by alfredo · · Score: 1

      But the high CO2 is hampering the uptake of nitrogen, and the warmer temps is moving their habitable zone north.

      --
      photosMy Photostream
  8. Scorpions will stay by ehiris · · Score: 2

    I've been trying to trigger the extinction of scorpions out of my desert mountain yard for four years now. These things won't go anyway and they love the hot weather.
    Lets say that we'll probably survive eating bugs.

  9. Slashdot UI faces extinction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    Served just fine nearing on 20 years, slowly pushed to extinction by the rise of soulless, repulsive Dice Holdings now known as DHI.

    1. Re:Slashdot UI faces extinction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Use links or other text browsers. I've only seen a row of pictures added to the front page.

    2. Re:Slashdot UI faces extinction by EdgeCreeper · · Score: 1

      The new UI changes are brain dead. If I was someone coming to Slashdot for the first time I am much more likely to think it is just a list of stories with summaries since the comments link is not obvious. This would cause me to either treat the site as something to quickly scan for a list of stories and leave, or just forget about. I have found the comments section to be the most interesting part of this site (helped massively by the fairly unique moderation method). It should have the link to the comments section as one of the most prominent features of a story, not just tucked into a little icon on the top right of a story.

  10. uh huh by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner

    In other words, "the question is whether we can get past people who don't agree instantly with me. We just need to put aside our differences and agree with me. "

    1. Re:uh huh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner

      In other words, "the question is whether we can get past people who don't agree instantly with me. We just need to put aside our differences and agree with me. "

      This is exactly right. God forbid you don't follow the party line or you'll be ostracized as a troll or, alternately, some simpleton who just can't grasp the complexity of their argument. They cannot accept, in their narcissism, that someone could be educated and possibly disagree with them. They're always right (in their own minds) , so logically, anyone who disagrees must be intentionally wrong or just stupid in their eyes.

    2. Re:uh huh by itsenrique · · Score: 1

      You bring no facts to the table, I can't even tell if you deny there is a huge loss of biodiversity or you just don't care.

    3. Re: uh huh by Rujiel · · Score: 2

      the question is whether we can get past people who don't agree instantly with me" He specifically said *paid* trolls. If you don't think there is paid shilling on environmental issues on the web, either you're not paying attention or you're in on it.

  11. Humans are fine, just not all of them. by gmtbrs · · Score: 2

    No environmental issue is a concern for humanity anymore. The rich survive, we all die. Nothing short of a planet killer would be an impact for humans as a species.

    --
    Flowers By Irene
    1. Re:Humans are fine, just not all of them. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The rich survive, we all die.

      I think it's reasonable to believe that if the system fails to collapse soon, that may be a possibility; the machines will advance to the point that they can mine materials, refine them, build more machines, and so on. But we're very much not there yet. If something goes wrong, it will just go on going wrong, and the system will fail without humans to set it right. The rich, for the most part, know fuck-all about practical matters. The wealthier you are the less you have to know about anything other than how to build magnificent financial structures out of bullshit, and how to put a very small ball into a small hole quite some yards distant. These are not people capable of figuring out how to make things go again if they stop. They need peons.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  12. background extinction rate by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So, last time I checked (a couple of days back, when this first appeared in the news), "background extinction rate" is a great deal of SWAG (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess).

    We don't know the total number of species alive now or at any particular time in the past. We never have, and it's likely we never will (until that number is 1). Which makes any estimate of the rate of extinction now or in the past more guess than science.

    Without an accurate guesstimate of number of species at any given time, "background extinction rate" is an even less accurate guesstimate.

    And with the denominator of (current extinction rate/background extinction rate) a guesstimate, the number produced (114 in this case) is another guesstimate (we don't even know the number of species going extinct now, much less the average number - what we know is the number of species that we notice going extinct).

    So, I'm less than excited by this particular prediction. Maybe in a century or two we'll know enough to make this a major concern (note that 114x background rate translates to ~225 species going extinct per million years - it's hardly going to be a swift extinction, except in geological terms).

    Or not....

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    1. Re:background extinction rate by hey! · · Score: 2

      So, last time I checked (a couple of days back, when this first appeared in the news), "background extinction rate" is a great deal of SWAG (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess).

      Well I guess that settles the question, then.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    2. Re:background extinction rate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Maybe in a century or two we'll know enough to make this a major concern (note that 114x background rate translates to ~225 species going extinct per million years - it's hardly going to be a swift extinction, except in geological terms).

      You've misread the numbers. The background rate is measured in the average species lifespan in millions of years. The corrects for not exactly knowing how many species there are (which isn't relevant for discussing the rate, a rate is a dimensionless number).

      The averages species seems to live a few million years, a factor 114 means it's reduced to an average of around 10,000 years for a species. Humans have been around for a few thousand already so in that sense I guess we're on schedule...

    3. Re:background extinction rate by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

      note that 114x background rate translates to ~225 species going extinct per million years

      No. You don't seem to understand this E/MSY unit.
      If you consider that there are 10 million species on earth (I agree with you, this number is a guesstimate, it could be off by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude), 225E/MSY would imply approximately 2250 extinctions per *year*.
      If you consider just one species, it would go extinct 225 times over in a million years. In other words, its survival expectancy would be about 4500 years.
      Shit, how old is our civilization?

    4. Re:background extinction rate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let's hope that those that set policy are smarter or listen to advice from people that are smarter than you. "We don't know how many species are alive now, and probably never will until there is only 1." How many stupid ideas are contained in this one sentence? How many there are total and the rate at which we are losing them are related, but if your country contains 1 million people, do you not care when 10,000 per year are dying? Would you be more or less concerned if the number jumped to 100,000 compared to 10,000? Would you care less that 10 times more people were dying, if you suspected the population was 10 million since it's "not as much of a dent in the overall number"? Or how about this implication: since we don't know now and haven't known in the past, why bother even trying to find out. Who the fuck cares? And at what point would we have a number that meant enough for you to do anything? If we wait until the number is 1, would we even be certain that the number is 1? What about microorganisms? What about the food chain and it's disruption? What if taking out one species due to global warming, or pesticides, or other human intervention collapses and entire chain of species? Do you care now even though you aren't exactly sure how many we're losing? How long would you wait? If you see species dying all around you and habitats for wildlife shrinking at a rate that is both large and visible in a single human life span, do you think we should sit back and let it pan out for a century or so just to be sure the results are noticeable. And why exactly do we need 7 billion human beings on the planet anyway? Lets apply your cavalier extinction rationale to us, since we're an animal on the planet like any other--but with a noticeably great ability to fuck the place up. Why don't we start extincting sub-populations of human beings? How many distinct sub-populations are there anyway? And for my rant about your retardation, let's assume that I'm thinking biologically significant genetically differentiated populations which may have genes that could later provide very beneficial to our evolutionary strategy (this is arbitrary though, we could base this on a taxonomy of the breast differentiation in our women, if that's more valuable to you). So how many different types of breasts are you willing to lose before you declare that there might be some issue. You may not have properly and personally inventories and classified all of those wonderful things, but at what point would their disappearance start to concern you? Well, breasts aren't really that important. Maybe a race or two of people isn't that important. Maybe all but 1 or two can go? Should we sit back for a century or two and watch it happen to see if it matter? I realize I've meandered around from analogy to analogy, but that's because your thought process is about as haphazard and idiotic, and I want to put this in terms you will understand. Here's the problem: we are fucking the planet's shit up. Has it happened before? Yes. Could we realistically destroy a significant percentage of the Earth's biodiversity? Yes. Are we? Very likely, but do we know precisely yet? No. Does that matter? No. There are many documented instances of species being destroyed because of us, and there's no reason whatsoever that we need to be extincting anything. None. It's not economically necessary, anymore than 7 billion human beings is economically necessary. In fact, it may even be an environmental catastrophe. Therefore we go back to people as animals. If your extended family has 100 people some of which you don't know and we start killing them off one by one so we can have their stuff which we don't even need, would you want to stop that or sit back for a couple years or decades and see whether their deaths mattered? And how exactly would you determine what "mattered" when you have no idea what their future contributions or the contributions of their descendants would be.

      And that's the whole fucking point. It doesn't matter whethe

  13. Oooo no! by Gumpu · · Score: 0

    The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

    1. Re:Oooo no! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...no it's called they need a new grant as their old one is about to expire...

    2. Re:Oooo no! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I noticed articles that focus on human self hate have been getting a lot of press coverage. Buzzfeed could dedicate a whole section to this.

    3. Re:Oooo no! by itsenrique · · Score: 2

      Because if you want to preserve nature, you hate humans....

  14. Paid trolls, Soulskill? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is that what DICE is paying you for?

    You'd think you'd be better at it for a troll shilling for a company paycheck. Shitdick.

  15. Golden Age of Discovery by tomhath · · Score: 1

    This same Paul Ehrlich says we're in a Golden Age of Discovery finding many new species "with a small range". I have to question how accurately they can calculate the background extinction rate when biologists couldn't even identify subtle differences between species that were collected in the field.

    1. Re:Golden Age of Discovery by itsenrique · · Score: 1

      News at 11, science gets better over time.

  16. Ahh, Republicans. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You're a trashy chuzzlewit and I mock your family. Your inbred skank family.

  17. tra la lalala la tra la la laa la.. by Hognoxious · · Score: 4, Funny

    Nobody lives in the desert

    Horses do. The ones with no names.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    1. Re:tra la lalala la tra la la laa la.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Must feel good to be out of the rain.

    2. Re:tra la lalala la tra la la laa la.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually in the Sonora desert around Maricopa AZ there is a herd of free range horse... not sure if they have a name

    3. Re:tra la lalala la tra la la laa la.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      They do not share their real names. It would give people power over them. To us they all sound like "whuwhuwhuwh" anyway.

  18. Re:Some species should be made extinct by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Like the malaria bug, aid virus and the nigger.

    Too bad you haven't died off yet, the future is not going to be a good place for racists.

  19. Still Don't Get Geologic Time by NReitzel · · Score: 4, Interesting

    This paper talks about the background rate, averaged over 350 million (with an M) years, since the Cambrian Explosion. In the middle of that "background" we have had tidal shield volcanism, planet-killer asteroid strikes, the utter destruction of the global ecology by graminoids, and the nearly complete extinction of all anerobic life by cyanobacteria.

    Now, compare this against the "current time frame" -- 100 years. 100 Years! That's insanely short. The analogy is comparing the overall murder rate of people attending church, averaged since we had statistics, to the single two hours in Charleston and then making the claim that "Church Murders are 500 Time Higher."

    Comparing rates is tricky stuff. The data curve is hugely noisy, with one event causing a spike, other times things average out. In mathematical terms using the derivative of a function over short periods to extrapolate a long term event is suspect at best, and an exercise in blithering ignorance at worst. 100 years sounds like a long time to humans, but in geological time it's not even a clock tick.

    --

    Don't take life too seriously; it isn't permanent.

    1. Re:Still Don't Get Geologic Time by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0

      In the middle of that "background" we have had tidal shield volcanism, planet-killer asteroid strikes, the utter destruction of the global ecology by graminoids, and the nearly complete extinction of all anerobic life by cyanobacteria.

      And don't forget the cancellation of Firefly.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  20. Re:Some species should be made extinct by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why are my comments being deleted Slashdot?

  21. NOT naysayers. by denzacar · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Cause... umm... you know... extinct is extinct.
    You can't say "no it isn't" if all you have to show for as evidence of existence it is... you know... nothing.
    This ain't a religious but a question of biology and of ability to count up to more than "one animal".

    E.g. You can't go around claiming that T. Rex is actually hiding. And no, Bill Legend's T. Rex is not THE T. Rex.

    The summary warns of "paid trolls", "FUD-ers" and finger pointers going around acting holier than thou, trying to "solve the problem" by placing the blame and spreading "it's the End Days" fear and panic.

    You know...
    People generalizing the entire humanity as being "people who cannot imagine anything beyond 3 months" and "folks who actually want the world to end" and assuming that "we're going to drive the bus off that extinction cliff while singing happy days are here again."

    Which is also a bit of ye old irrelevant conclusion fallacy.
    Cause... umm... people not able to think beyond 3 months about pandas or people wanting to burn all pandas and people singing "happy days" instead of working on preserving pandas...
    Well... they are not the ones actually working on preserving pandas, aren't they?

    It's almost as if a relatively small group of people (compared to the world population or even the population of China) is taking steps to preserve the damn pandas - regardless of all those other people.
    Making them kinda irrelevant as long as they don't make it their business to get off their ass, fly off to a game preserve and start shooting pandas.

    --
    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
    1. Re:NOT naysayers. by dgatwood · · Score: 2, Funny

      Cause... umm... you know... extinct is extinct.

      Not anymore, it isn't. We now have the ability to snag the DNA of these animals and recreate them by injecting it into fertilized donor eggs from a similar species, and then release them into a habitat that is better suited to their continued existence, assuming that we choose to do so. Before the rise of technology, extinct was extinct. Now, extinct is more like "resource temporarily unavailable". :-)

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    2. Re:NOT naysayers. by dryeo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They're still not the same species. There's things like the mitochondrial DNA that is lost as well as other things like the intestinal fauna and even the cultural parts that get passed on by example from parent to child may be important.
      A Mammoth born to an African Elephant is not going to the same as a Mammoth born to a Mammoth on the Arctic steppes.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    3. Re:NOT naysayers. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Not anymore

      Really? Where is the Tasmanian-tiger? And the Dodo?

      One thing is having the idea on how to do it. Doing it for real is usually a little harder.

      Your post and denzacar's are fine examples of of "happy days are here again"...

      Also, for the guy who said we've been having progress in the last 3000 years: please know that for some progress has not been uniform, we went backwards in a number of aspects.

    4. Re:NOT naysayers. by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      Cause... umm... you know... extinct is extinct. You can't say "no it isn't" if all you have to show for as evidence of existence it is... you know... nothing.

      So what you are saying is it is not possible to make conjecture, until we go extinct? Cuz yea, extinct is extinct.

      You see, extinction does not require everyone to sign on to it. I imagine a shit fit between a few of the major players might do the job even if 90 percent of humanity are peaceful people never to commit a violent act.

      People generalizing the entire humanity as being "people who cannot imagine anything beyond 3 months" and "folks who actually want the world to end" and assuming that "we're going to drive the bus off that extinction cliff while singing happy days are here again."

      Nice argument, but you'll notice that I never said everyone was like that.

      But humans in general are an extremely violent and aggressive species, unless you want to make the statement that one of our major activities is one that we absolutely hate, one that we loathe, yet one that we engage in constantly

      And those who have a more pacifistic bent get killed by those who are not concerned about killing others.

      Tell me, take some certain food that you hate, Say the taste is awful. You get diarrhea, maybe a life threatening reaction.

      You plan on spending every day eating that food? We kill each other because at the deepest darkest level of humanity, most humans enjoy doing just that. Either that, or we are the very definition of self destructive masochists. Perpetually doing the thing they hate the most.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    5. Re:NOT naysayers. by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I think that would be progress in a different direction... Not that I support making species go extinct (and I live with huge numbers of large mosquitoes) or anything like that. Though I am forced to wonder - what extinct species has a negative impact because of their extinction? I mean negative in the overall sense of things. I really do not recall any.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    6. Re:NOT naysayers. by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      A Mammoth born to an African Elephant is not going to the same as a Mammoth born to a Mammoth on the Arctic steppes.

      Not to mention, speniding millions to make an ersatz species is how smart compared to allowing them to do it the old fashioned way.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    7. Re:NOT naysayers. by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      They're still not the same species. There's things like the mitochondrial DNA that is lost as well as other things like the intestinal fauna and even the cultural parts that get passed on by example from parent to child may be important.

      The intestinal fauna is going to change over time anyway, and there's a nonzero chance that it contributed to the species' extinction by being incompatible with changing food sources, so replacing it would probably make the species more viable. With regards to cultural issues, IMO, there isn't much difference between that and non-extinct species where the only remaining animals were born in captivity.

      As for mitochondrial DNA, you're assuming that the species has been extinct long enough to not have full tissue samples. If you have a frozen tissue sample, I would assume you could use the mitochondria from that sample in addition to the chromosomes. If you don't have a frozen tissue sample, the odds of being able to reconstruct the organism go down pretty rapidly because of the genetic equivalent of code rot.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    8. Re:NOT naysayers. by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      Really? Where is the Tasmanian-tiger? And the Dodo?

      The dodo has been extinct for over 300 years. I'm talking about species that become extinct now or in the future.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    9. Re:NOT naysayers. by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      Besides, this isn't sci-fi anymore. Cross-species cloning using genetic material from one species in the ova of another was done sucessfully more than a decade ago (and I'm not sure if that linked study was even the first one). There really isn't much question about whether it is possible anymore. The only real question is whether we care about a species enough to bother to bring it back from extinction....

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    10. Re:NOT naysayers. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > The intestinal fauna is going to change over time anyway

      Who knows, it might even change back into intestinal flora...

    11. Re:NOT naysayers. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You've got no idea what you're talking about. Cloning a couple of individuals does not bring a species back from extinction.

    12. Re:NOT naysayers. by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      Unless I'm missing something, assuming you have enough tissue samples from distinct individuals to avoid a monoculture that quickly goes extinct again because of inbreeding, the only real difference between creating two living clones and creating a thousand living clones is that you have to spend about 500 times as much time and money to do the latter, and even then, only if economies of scale don't start to kick in along the way.

      Now whether the species will actually stay not extinct in the wild is another question—after all, it presumably became extinct for a reason—but even a species that exists only in captivity isn't truly extinct, just extinct in the wild.

      And whether or not anybody cares enough to spend 500 times as much money to bring that species back is also another question, but I already covered that.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    13. Re:NOT naysayers. by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      Parasitic worms in the gut don't usually change into microbes. :-)

      But seriously, yeah, that bothered me when the original poster wrote it, as I'm assuming the original poster meant flora, but I decided to go with the term used in the post I was replying to, under the assumption that the poster really did mean tapeworms and similar....

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  22. consume at all cost vs sheperding by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's a tough call. Immediate vs deferred gratification?

  23. Meaningless by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Humans are evolved mammals. If you disagree, you are "anti-science"

    What mammals do in nature is, by definition, normal. If you disagree, you are "anti-science"

    Therefore: Everything humans do, including building and using toxic chemicals and nuclear bombs, paving-over nature, eliminating any other species we eliminate, making the air and water toxic, etc is all exactly as normal and OK as a bear pooping in the woods. If human activity causes a mass die-off, then this is as normal as any other species doing something that causes a mass die-off. It could well be that the natural destiny of humanity is to convert the Earth from its current intermediate green state to an environment that is ideal for the next great leap of insect evolution. While this could even lead to the extinction of mankind, this too would be normal and therefore OK; there is nothing special about humans if we are indeed just evolved mammals - there is no "cosmic" or "spiritual" importance to any species or to what any species does or does not accomplish.

    There is simply no rational basis to environmentalism or concerns about extinctions of any number of species. Indeed, we know that all life that exists today arose from an initial toxic primordial soup. You could completely eliminate life on Earth and it could arise again perhaps a billion years from now and it might be a much better form of life. Of course it's also possible that it might never arise again, but that too would be of no importance. We know that if you think there is anything more than time, energy, and matter, stirred by random events, then you are "anti-science"....

  24. Re:Hopefully... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I hope it does, especially when article commenters spew all manner of bigoted nonsense and racism. I mean seriously, there are no less than 4 references to the n-word in this space. I though this site was for "smart people" to debate tech and other significant issues. It has seriously gone downhill over the years. I'm now commenting as anon but I've got well over 2,000 posts to this site.If I keep seeing this nonsense I might as well move to reddit or a platform that is less infested with idiots.

  25. It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by msobkow · · Score: 1

    We're not in the middle of an "extinction event" -- we're simply crowding out other species and consuming their habitats.

    There is a world of difference between an asteroid strike and bulldozing the rain forest.

    --
    I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
    1. Re:It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by alfredo · · Score: 1

      Dying by a knife or a gun has the same end result as starvation or dehydration.

      --
      photosMy Photostream
    2. Re:It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by msobkow · · Score: 4, Insightful

      With one key difference. The crowding out is being caused by humans and humans alone; die-offs as a result of "extinction events" are unavoidable natural catastrophes. There is absolutely nothing "unavoidable" or "natural" about the way mankind is butchering this planet.

      --
      I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
    3. Re:It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      There is absolutely nothing "unavoidable" or "natural" about the way mankind is butchering this planet.

      It's natural because humans are natural. Unavoidable.....you are absolutely correct.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    4. Re:It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      It's natural because humans are natural.

      The current contemporary meaning of "natural" seems to be "whatever would happen if we weren't here". But really, if some other species evolved to be more complicated, they'd probably shit up their environment too.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    5. Re:It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      But really, if some other species evolved to be more complicated, they'd probably shit up their environment too.

      Indeed they do, even as less complicated animals. Have you ever seen bat guano? Or, more destructively, the damage caused by a locust swarm? Nature isn't nice or good, and 'natural' isn't categorically better than 'unnatural.'

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    6. Re:It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      > The crowding out is being caused by humans and humans alone;

      Do you count goats, rabbits, and cane toads? Goats are a core part of the expansion of the Sahara: they graze the grass too short. Australia has numerous examples of ecological disaster from humans importing other animals, especially rabbits and cane toads.

    7. Re:It's not a "die off" -- it's "crowding out" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A more close comparison, I think, is with cyanobacteria, which killed off most life on Earth when they first became widespread, by polluting the environment with a deadly toxin: oxygen. This Great Oxygenation Event is one of the most significant mass extinctions in history. But life evolved and adapted, and most macrosopic life now relies on oxygen in order to survive.

      Nothing we're doing is likely to compare to the Great Oxygenation Event in the scale of catastrophes, and it's almost certain that some form of life - possibly more interesting and complex than at present - will survive the extinction event we're causing right now. That doesn't mean it isn't a bad thing - it just means that our motive for stopping it is self-interest (we depend on all sorts of current lifeforms to sustain our civilization) rather than concern for the long-term viability of life on Earth, which will do just fine, thank you.

  26. Re:Some species should be made extinct by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    On the contrary, the future is going to be bright for those who stick to their own and preserve their own. Racism is a natural human trait. Some groups are simply superior to others in some ways. We got bigger brains, the n*****s chose ridiculous sized penises instead.

    So you are saying you are arrogant, racist and you have a small penis. Noted. One thing that I note from your ridiculous logic, is that in addition to your implied small dick shaming, like any typical racist, you try to make it seem like racism is supported by science and is accepted by all to be normal. You are wrong about this and it is not ok no matter what you white supremacist, small dick idiots say. I hate to be the one to break it to you, but the african population is increasing faster than the caucasian population and has been for decades and this is unlikely to change as they are better adapted to the type of environment that is coming about, that being global warming. You and you small dick are just out of luck it seems.

  27. "rate of vertebrate species loss..." by swell · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So sad to see cute, cuddly and some magnificent animals die off. But they are of little significance compared to small and microscopic life forms. When they die, we die. Poison the ocean, the air and the soil and we are killing vast, unimaginable numbers of critical life forms that make our planet livable. Who is measuring our losses of algae and bacteria, the providers of oxygen that made all the rest of life possible?

    You've heard about the dying honeybees, now consider the rest. You may not care for cockroaches, amoeba, bacteria or fruit flies; but they matter. And it's not just the external ones. Inside our bodies are critical critters that digest our food and symbiotically live with us. They too are at risk as we experiment with chemicals, radiation, genetics, nanotech and other fun stuff.

    We all love lions, tigers and bears. Who can resist adoring a panda, koala or even an ordinary baby kitten? But are these things critical to human survival? Human emotions are fascinating but they often lead us astray.

    --
    ...omphaloskepsis often...
  28. Re:Some species should be made extinct by msobkow · · Score: 1

    You do realize that "race" is merely an accident of melanin levels and sun exposure?

    Nah, of course not. When it was time to learn grade school biology, you took that as your cue to fuck your cousin.

    --
    I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
  29. Re:Fukushima by PPH · · Score: 1

    [citation needed]

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  30. No. by itsenrique · · Score: 3, Interesting

    So because the world you live in hasn't changed significantly ('Still got chicken and cities!'), the idea that biodiversity is on a fast decline is wrong... even though the article asserted it started long before the 1970's. So yes, it did "come to be". Please give us some references that there hasn't been a massive loss of biodiversity over the last 100 years. You can't because there has been. Are you really naive enough to think we can't have any effects on the biosphere, because look we're all still here? We do have finite resources and an ever expanding population.

    1. Re:No. by catsRus · · Score: 1

      If the crap they were selling was true we wouldn't be having this conversation, we would all be dead according to the experts at that time. I have learned most people prefer fear to reason and this is just proving my point.

    2. Re:No. by catsRus · · Score: 1

      I never said we have no affect on the biosphere, i said they were lying about the effects and they were, and likely still are.

    3. Re:No. by itsenrique · · Score: 1
      The fact that you read some alarmist predictions that turned out to be false in the 70's doesn't mean that all reporting on the decline of species diversity is bunk.

      I have learned most people prefer fear to reason and this is just proving my point.

      So any predictions for the future that seem too negative are deemed FUD, even without real hard evidence to counter it, because you once read some FUD? Your logic has some holes in it.

    4. Re:No. by itsenrique · · Score: 1

      we have triggered a large die-off, and that we may become victims of it as well.

      How are they lying about the effects, the author only suggests it's a possibility it would be our demise. It isn't proposed to a certainty. But keep burying your head in the sand, nothing we do could possibly hurt us on a large scale! More CAFOs, more intensive agriculture, more deforestation, more overfishing, and hey, more bush meat while we're at it! We're improving the planet for future generations by doing those things actually!

    5. Re:No. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have learned most people prefer fear to reason

      This seems to be preventing you from applying some reason to a situation because you fear the other person. Please, greybeard or no, grow the fuck up and realise you live in a system with limits. Just because one prediction was wrong does not mean the whole lot are wrong.

      Ever played dice? You must be correct every single time or else the game can't be right!

      That's you.

    6. Re:No. by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 1

      The major extinction event started thousands of years ago with the dawn of humanity. If anything, as a race we have improved over time and are more conscious of the need to care for our environment than ever before. It isn't a new issue and it isn't modernity or 'the western way' that has caused it.

      It's the ''we have got to make immediate major changes NOW'' sentiment that some of us are speaking against. That's the Freshman Activist way of seeing things. The 'grown ups' advocating stuff like that are zealots and opportunists. They are lifetime 'organizers' who benefit mostly from the churn of social frenzy. Don't hang around their lit tables too long. You'll end up either joining their cult or burning out.

      Instead, go out into the world and make the many small real changes you can, which includes raising the awareness of others but does not mean needing to join the cult, chant the chants, or feeding the power base of the opportunists running 'campaigns.' Slogans are feel-good mantras. Real change involves more.

  31. if we run out of food to eat by FudRucker · · Score: 2

    we can always make soylent green

    --
    Politics is Treachery, Religion is Brainwashing
  32. Joke About It by Cycloid+Torus · · Score: 1

    Young to elder on deathbed..."So how long you been dyin'?"

    Craggy brows lift, " All my life."

    --
    Lost in space at an early age. Survived the vacuum. Now rebuilding castle in air.
  33. I'm very skeptical by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Part of the problem is the great difficulty involved in comparing things between scales of millions or tens of millions of years and mere centuries. Maybe if the current rate was sustained for a few thousand or hundred thousand years it would start to be comparable in magnitude to a mass extinction. The conditions would have to persist a long time before you start knocking out, say, 50% of the species. Secondly, many of the species that have gone extinct are ones that are on the precipice of extinction anyway because their numbers and geographic distribution is very limited. This is relevant for two reasons: A) they stood a good chance of going extinct anyway regardless of humans, and B) it's doubtful they would have shown up as fossils in the first place to be counted as part of the standing diversity -- i.e. there are a lot of species that would come and go without any notice if dealing with an ancient record. Show me the hugely important and widespread species that go extinct, because those will be the ones that matter.

    When paleontologists look at mass extinction events we're talking wholesale extinction of entire groups (e.g., whole families), not merely a few species, including species that until the extinction were common and widely distributed as fossils. Extinctions such as the passenger pigeon might be something comparable between the two records, ancient and modern, but something like the dodo that went extinct due to human interference? It's probable we never would have known it existed as a fossil in the first place, were we looking at the present time in the same way as we do fossils. And even with the passenger pigeon extinct there are plenty of other similar species. Kill off all pigeon species and it would be more like the sort of thing that happens at a mass extinction.

    This study also focuses on vertebrates. Mass extinctions are wholesale disruptions of just about everything, not only vertebrates, and while there are plenty of other species that have gone extinct, vertebrates have the disadvantage of being rather large and edible. They have higher resource demands and are more vulnerable compared to many other creatures that won't catch as much direct human attention. The paper argues that they are a good choice because of the comparably better modern and ancient records, which is a good point, but vertebrates also seem to have a higher turnover (species originations and extinctions) than many other groups.

    Don't get me wrong: we probably are accelerating extinction rates. But this paper is considering a bigger question: are we doing so at "mass extinction" scale. I don't think we're even close. Not yet anyway.

    Original paper is here and is open access.

  34. Wallpaper or papercuts by huckamania · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    This is a new thing that pseudo-scientists and fellow travelers are using, the meta-meta-study. It's either taking a bunch of studies and using them to paper over the problems with your own pet theory. Or it is death by a thousand paper cuts, with more and more 'me too' studies and rolling them together to support your own pet theory.

    This is how we get memes like 97%, which is either some survey of some small group on an email list or a bunch of grad students picking, and more importantly excluding, papers that match a word search for global warming. Whether that is scary run away global warming or just noticing that we are coming out of an ice age doesn't seem to make a distinction for these people. Pointing that out gets a response that implies you are directly responsible for all of the carbon pollution in the world.

    The upside is that they will probably block you if you dare mention that the greenhouse effect is logarithmically challenged.

    1. Re:Wallpaper or papercuts by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      if you dare mention that the greenhouse effect is logarithmically challenged.

      I like the way you phrase that. You should be a writer.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re: Wallpaper or papercuts by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      Trapped gasses everywhere will surely take note of this...

    3. Re:Wallpaper or papercuts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The upside is that they will probably block you if you dare mention that the greenhouse effect is logarithmically challenged.

      Sorry, what? Care to explain that one?

    4. Re:Wallpaper or papercuts by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      You want to know why 97% became a meme? Because a large number of people are irrational about climate science, disregarded the evidence, and took a few odd people as proof that there was an ongoing debate about AGW. Somebody came up with strong evidence of a consensus among climate scientists, to show that there was a consensus that AGW is happening and is serious, and then the deniers concentrated on calling climate scientists incompetent and corrupt.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  35. Decline of the taxonomist? by nicoleb_x · · Score: 1

    Not sure what came first, the decline of new species or the decline of taxonomists. But there has been a steady decline in the number of the taxonomists. In the field of botany lots of newly discovered plants are not described because they just aren't interesting enough for the taxonomists to work on them. Anyway, the best way to stop the perception of an extinction event is to create more species! Admittedly, that would be a short term fix.

  36. Re:Paid Trolls? by durrr · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Paul Ehrlich is a famous doomspeaker known for his predictions of imminent doom and gloom.

    He's not famous for being right though.

    He may not believe in the easter bunny but he certainly believes in The Great Demise despite its consistent failure to materialize in any shape or form.

  37. Ah. Proof by assertion of "It's OBVIOUS!!" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Unfortunately, since you chose the ass-head route, I can respond in kind: you're talking a load of bollocks. IT'S OBVIOUS!!!!

  38. Aibo by drwho · · Score: 1

    Yes, this topic at the same time as Sony is killing of the Aibo.

  39. Fishermen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Since our ability to catch is much higher than ever before, unless you're claiming all this technology and "improvement" a scam perpetratedon the fishermen by private industry, we have dropped our catch of fish by very close to 80%. Add in that there must have been at least *some* improvement on our ability to catch, that is going to be a minimum.

    And so many fish we can't get in any number that we get crap fish stock that weren't EVER considered fit for consumption because we fished the ones we liked so much we can't get them any more.

    So unless you consider both a huge scam by industry selling "improved technology" AND the fishermen themselves to be in on the conspiracy, you have your evidence already.

    Or find your own to support that there is no collapse of fish stocks, in contravention on every single piece of evidence.

  40. Perhaps this is relevant. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.12356/full

  41. Surge in people failing at English by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    Slashdot has always (at least since the five-digit days, which is when I started reading) been a refuge for people for whom English (or even simple logic) is simply too complicated, but what is it lately with people insisting that words have just one meaning? I've noticed a significant upward trend in it here on Slashdot. People want words to mean the one thing they want them to mean, and they want any other use of the same word to be invalid. You can start a flamewar most days just by using the word decimate.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    1. Re:Surge in people failing at English by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not just a recent trend, I recall it in real life going back 20 years. People will exclude all other meanings until it suits them - they learned this skill from how our politicians talk.

  42. Humans are the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    >>The authors suggest that rapid work to avert the worst of the die-off is still possible. The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and >>finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner.

    Here's how to solve the world's problems, join the VHEMT. http://www.vhemt.org/

  43. The end of humanity has been predicted 10000 times by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    and 10000 times it has been wrong. This 'Extinction event' is no different.

  44. Re:Hopefully... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Reddit is not less full of idiots, it's just easier to build your bubble and revel in the group think. The idiots are there, you just don't have to see them.

    Life is always easier when everyone agrees with you.

  45. Re:Hopefully... by alexhs · · Score: 1

    Have faith in Slashdoters ! ;)

    I suspect that there are less of us around here on Saturdays and Sundays, and what you're seeing is concerted shilling by some conservative group outnumbering us.
    Well, that's for the nonsense. I didn't see the racist posts, they're probably by ACs and probably have been modded down by now, as they ought to be.

    --
    I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of killer sig, which this margin is too narrow to contain.
  46. Paul Ehrlich, always wrong. by zerosomething · · Score: 1

    PaulEhrlich, the author of the Population Bomb! You really don't want to put stock in anything he has to say? This man has been so wrong so many times it's amazing he can keep a job.

    From the Population Bomb “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines–hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”

    --
    It all starts at 0
    1. Re:Paul Ehrlich, always wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hundreds of millions of people did starve to death in the 1970s. Hundreds of millions of people have already staved to death in this decade. Just because you don't care about people starving to death or want to ignore it, doesn't make it not real.

  47. Unlike climate change, we can actually do controls by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm not sure how many species were in the "bio dome" experiments, or how well controlled they were. IIRC, not very; but at least a diversity experiment is possible. If you isolate a bunch of humans with a bunch of other organisms, you can in theory determine the minimum diversity for long term survival. Note, I'm not saying it's particularly practical. I'm just saying that it's a lot more practical than having two identical Earths, one with humans and massive carbon output, another with humans and minimal carbon output.

  48. These studies are based on drake's equation by Karmashock · · Score: 1

    Not all of them... but a lot of them... and the overall synthesis of them tends to work that way.

    It works something like this usually "lets study how many species have gone extinct in this acre of land". And that acre could be a place that someone build a parking lot. The acre in question is often cherry picked to give apocalyptic results. And a big thing you have to pay attention to in these studies is that "extinct" doesn't mean the species is gone from wherever in the world... just "that spot" A deer could wander into the box... be counted at time X... then wander out at X+1... and boom... deer are extinct... in the box.

    Then what they do is through Drakes equation they estimate how many species are in the acre that they don't even know exist. And then they estimate how many of those have gone extinct using the number of known species that went extinct in that box... remember the deer.

    Then again using Drake's equation they extrapolate this sample... of one acre... to estimate the extinction rate of the entire planet.

    If you ask the people making these claims to cite species that are actually gone EVERYWHERE... and only to cite species that are known... the numbers fall radically because most of the extinctions are theoretical.

    The next problem is that it is really hard to estimate historic extinction rates. You're doing it from what... Fossils? not all species are captured in fossils. And you can't compared what would show up in the modern fossil record with the past fossil record until the modern fossil record has been created first. So... maybe in 10,000 years... you might be able to compare current extinction rates with past extinction rates. That is unless you have a way of figuring out past extinction rates without looking at the fossil record.

    Are extinctions higher today then in the recent past? Probably. Humans are taking too much habitat away from animals for that to not be the case. However, lets not be hyperbolic about it. I can't take people seriously if they're going to start exaggerating everything transparently for political reasons. The environmental movement did itself great injury when it put politics above all else.

    I am very sympathetic to the environmental cause. But only the rational elements of it. The instant they start trying to treat me like one of their brainwashed zombie cultists... They eat a double barreled boomstick of reason.

    I am all for saving animals. Show me which animals are endangered and I'll do what is possible to save them.

    All of this said, keep in mind that human beings are the biggest thing to happen to this world since the Cambrian explosion. So a higher rate of extinction is to be expected and is not inherently bad.

    The first means of evolution was random mutation.
    The second means of evolution was sexual selection.

    That was it... until humans.

    Now we have a third means of evolution - Intelligent Design... aka genetic engineering.

    And whatever you might feel about that... life couldn't do that before we came along. That's new.

    We are the third stage of evolution on this world. A little chaos as we get our feet planted is normal.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    1. Re:These studies are based on drake's equation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You have no idea what you are talking about, do you? Please, show us just one study in a reputable, peer-reviewed journal that estimates global extinction rates using the Drake equation. If you can't do that, then show us a study that estimates global extinction rates using local extinction data for an acre of land. (As you put it, a study where the authors "extrapolate this sample... of one acre.")

      If you can't do either of the above, then please, stop pretending to be knowledgeable about complex technical fields about which you have no clue, okay?

    2. Re:These studies are based on drake's equation by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      How about the very study in question?

      Its based on the IUCN Red List. A source that is frequently cited for not disclosing data, methodology, or simply making things up.

      I'm sure lots of things are going extinct... again, there's a lot of habitate destruction. However, the means by which this is determined are often fallacious. And as I pointed out as well, even if we are in an extinction event, we're the biggest thing to hit this planet since the Cambrian explosion. So... why would you expect anything else?

      An extinction event doesn't mean all life is dying out. Just means that life that can't adapt is dying out. And most of the life being cited are sub breeds of otherwise successful species.

      If I have four birds that all had a common ancestor a million years ago... and three of those four birds dies but one of them does really well... that's just evolution.

      Don't be hysterical or I will fucking slap you until you have calmed down. Calm down.

      Now that you're calm... what solutions would you propose?.. besides give you huge sums of money and power. Because if that's what we're doing then allow me to submit my request for whores and cocaine. So many of these things are just transparent power grabs that do little more than baffle peasants that can't connect the dots. I've no patience for this bullshit unless it is reasonable and scientific.

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    3. Re:These studies are based on drake's equation by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      http://www.geneticliteracyproj...

      There are lots of links.

      You have to take their reports with a grain of salt. And basing an entire report on their red list is not a good source. Who is going to dig through that pile to find every species that shouldn't be there?

      Your criticize me but you probably didn't even know what Drake's equation was before I cited it.

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    4. Re:These studies are based on drake's equation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about the very study in question?

      No. Did they use the Drake equation to estimate the global extinction rate? Were their results based on extrapolation of local extinction data from a small tract of land (e.g., 1 acre, as you claim)?

      So, care to try again? I'll repeat my challenge for you to back up your claims, in case you have trouble remembering what you said:

      Please, show us just one study in a reputable, peer-reviewed journal that estimates global extinction rates using the Drake equation. If you can't do that, then show us a study that estimates global extinction rates using local extinction data for an acre of land. (As you put it, a study where the authors "extrapolate this sample... of one acre.")

      And please don't respond again with your stupid goalpost moving of criticizing the IUCN red list, since that is a far cry from your original criticisms.

    5. Re:These studies are based on drake's equation by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Jesus christ.

      They don't have to use local data to use drakes equation. What they have to do is estimate and base estimations on estimations on estimations.

      That's what drake's equation is. The local EXAMPLE was just an EXAMPLE.

      Now the CURRENT research you're using for this blog post is based on the Red List. That's its evidence. And already dealt with that. It's been cited repeatedly for activism.

      So did you want to cite something that you feel fits your criteria? Because i'm not going to... you've given yourself enough wiggle room that I could cite anything and you'd just say that even though it was peer reviewed and even though it was cited by international organizations and the media... that it isn't reputable. You can say that about anything.

      So you've basically fucked yourself in the ass with a pineapple by asking for too much. Because you tacked on too many qualifications... I get to ask YOU to cite something. I can't read your mind. I don't know what you consider reputable.

      So your move. And keep in mind that when cited Drake's equation, that was just an example, kay? Thanks.

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    6. Re:These studies are based on drake's equation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      They don't have to use local data to use drakes equation. What they have to do is estimate and base estimations on estimations on estimations.

      That's what drake's equation is.

      Do you actually know what the Drake equation is? If you think "Drake equation" just means any estimation procedure that builds on other estimates, then no, you do not know what it means. It has a very specific meaning as a thought experiment to estimate the number of technological civilizations in the local galaxy. When you claim that global extinction rate studies use the Drake equation, you sound like a fool.

      So did you want to cite something that you feel fits your criteria?

      Why should I have to cite anything? You are the one who is making claims here. Here's what you've said:

      These studies are based on drake's equation. Not all of them... but a lot of them... and the overall synthesis of them tends to work that way.

      Can you find a global extinction rate study that even mentions the Drake equation, let alone uses it as part of the estimation process?

      The acre in question is often cherry picked to give apocalyptic results. And a big thing you have to pay attention to in these studies is that "extinct" doesn't mean the species is gone from wherever in the world... just "that spot" A deer could wander into the box... be counted at time X... then wander out at X+1... and boom... deer are extinct... in the box.

      Do you have an example of a global extinction rate study where the sample areas were "cherry picked to give apocalyptic results?" How about one where local extinctions (that is, local losses of animals we know are not globally extinct) were equated with global extinctions?

      Then again using Drake's equation they extrapolate this sample... of one acre... to estimate the extinction rate of the entire planet.

      Can you give even one example of a study where a sample of that size, or comparable size, has been used to estimate the extinction rate of the entire planet?

      If you ask the people making these claims to cite species that are actually gone EVERYWHERE... and only to cite species that are known... the numbers fall radically because most of the extinctions are theoretical.

      Again, show us an example of where this is true.

      You spout a bunch of bullshit about extinction rate studies, and it is painfully obvious that you are way outside of your expertise. Then, when challenged, instead of even attempting to back up your allegations, you pathetically claim that you don't have to provide any evidence, because if you did, I wouldn't accept it anyway. So, I'll ask again -- can you back up even one of your charges against this area of research? If not, are you honest enough to admit it?

    7. Re:These studies are based on drake's equation by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      On drake's equation, that was merely its first application.

      In practice, it exactly as I said:

      From wikipedia:
      R = p * ne * l *i * c * L

      And that's the first version. The final version of drake's equation included about 21 variables nearly all of which were estimated.

      R* = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
      p = the fraction of those stars that have planets
      ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
      l = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
      i = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
      c = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
      L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[8]

      I've seen that equation used in a lot of junk science.

      It works like this:

      Variable you're trying to find a value for =
      Variable you know
      *
      Variable you think you can estimate
      *
      Another variable you think you can estimate
      *
      Wild ass guess
      *
      Wild ass guess
      *
      specific variable taken from one location and extrapolated to everywhere
      *
      wild ass guess

      That's generally how it works. And that's drake's equation applied to whatever specious bit of activist bullshit that's in vogue today.

      As to studies that reference Drake's equation, of course they're not going to cite it. What they'll do is USE IT but not cite it.

      That is they'll do the equation of V = A * B * C * D * E * F * G

      where in about 80 percent of variables are just guesses. And then call V derived by our algorithm. Which... as it often turns out... is bullshit.

      As to the acre figure, I know at least two studies. One of them was pushed by the WWF and was cited by the UN and the EPA. Was it peer reviewed? I don't know... but it was the basis of law. And it did use very tiny sample sizes of about an acre. And before you get upset with me for not citing a peer reviewed something... the Red List isn't peer reviewed either and that's the basis of the cited study that this topic is talking about. The evidence IS the Red List.

      They'd also do stuff like... trout might disappear from a river. They'd call that trout "extinct"... they'd say its the such and such river trout. For example if it is the Red River... they'll say the "red river trout are extinct"... well, no... trout are no longer in the red river but the species itself is not extinct. Now genetically that trout is identical to a lot of other trout in the area where there are still lots of fish. It just disappeared from THAT river. But because the trout in that river were deemed a unique species even though they can produce live young with other trout and those trout are fertile... I don't quite see how they're a different species. And note further, that if a species leave a given area it can usually be reintroduced or it will reintroduce itself unless the habitate was destroyed. So lets say there was a drought and the river dried out entirely. Okay... no fish in that river... cus the water is gone. Then a couple years later the water comes back... and so long as that river is connected to a body of water with that species of trout, the river will be repopulated naturally. You can speed that up if you like by reseeding the river.

      Being unable to breed with another population generally is considered where you draw the species line. That means not just producing infertile young like mules but being able to produce fertile offspring... like dogs. A big 200 pound dog can breed with a little 5 pound dog. Different breeds... same species.

      A lot of the species on those lists are not actually different species. They're

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
  49. You just proved it wasn't BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Well done. You just proved the OP wrong, it's NOT BS. "The entire premise" is that we're having an extinction and it's human caused. You just proved my point.

    But, somehow, you're acting like you proved ME wrong.

    How did you manage to do that? Is it by the same method as one of the other "BOLLOCKS!!!" screamers? IOW you make up some shit it might have said that isn't there but is bollocks, and therefore "it is" bollocks? "

    >they say that humans will be the first to go.
    >
    >they do not offer any reasoning whatsoever

    Neither did the one saying the above offer any place where "they" say that.

  50. Re: Paul Ehrlich?qq by AlMarzian · · Score: 2

    Tell that to the residents of California, and the grain farmers in the Midwest. it isn't just water, it is soil loss and increased salinization of the soil from fertilizing, and drawing from low aquifers. As the aquifers delete, the water gets more saline. It is hard to motivateele to change behavior, especially if there is money involved. Sustainability takes the backseat to short term profits

  51. Suicide cult by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All religions and political systems (same thing really) do eugenics. They only allow those supportive of the administration to breed. This is how they survive as our masters. Nature breeds us differently, so we survive as a species. Once our immune system is modified for politically correct and religiously correct reasons, we will not have the immune system necessary to fight off the pathogens that have evolved naturally to overwhelm our degraded immunity.

  52. The sky is falling by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And if you don't believe me based on computer models that in any other field would get you fired, then you hate women, minorities, children so obey us and give all your income and destroy your economy or the sky will fall.

  53. Re: The extinction of Linux thanks to systemd. by elvesrus · · Score: 1

    They were warned to get off...

  54. Duration by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    One of the tricky things about these great extinctions is they call them "Events" which makes people think the extinctions happened quickly over short periods of time but often they were over tens of thousands or even millions of years. How that relates to our current one is an interesting point.

  55. Re: The extinction of Linux thanks to systemd. by pollarda · · Score: 1

    I'm in the midst of lawn mowing. (It was pretty long.) I have to admit to contributing to the extinction event by ruthlessly and completely without mercy killing the poor cute little ground hog that's been making mounds everywhere. (I'd post a pic but it might offend the sensitive.)

  56. Re:Some species should be made extinct by tompaulco · · Score: 1

    We could all do with fewer niggers. But but they are incapable of developing advanced civilization.

    I don't know. They managed to make the current civilization.

    --
    If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
  57. We're doomed by wardrich86 · · Score: 1

    Unless the die-off is set to happen during the lifetime of the greedy old fucks that continually put money over common sense, we're screwed.

  58. Re:Paid Trolls? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Paul Ehrlich is a famous doomspeaker known for his predictions of imminent doom and gloom.

    He's not famous for being right though.

    He may not believe in the easter bunny but he certainly believes in The Great Demise despite its consistent failure to materialize in any shape or form.

    You are right about Erlich (and Malthus and others) in as much as thier predictions of doom and gloom are highly exagerated in terms of time-scale. However I would question the intelligence of anyone who doesn't understand the basic thermodynamic argument against infinitely sustained growth. The question is when do we reap what we've sown; 100 years? 1,000 years? 100,000 years?

    That we are in the midst of a great extinction event is not news. Might there be a significant reduction in the size of human population in the coming centuries? Probably. However we are a highly adaptable species, barring a massive asteroid impact or a massive nuclear exchange I suspect that humans becoming extinct is highly unlikely.

  59. Re:Hopefully... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Have faith in Slashdoters ! ;)

    I suspect that there are less of us around here on Saturdays and Sundays, and what you're seeing is concerted shilling by some conservative group outnumbering us.

    Sure. Because if I see too many people who disagree with me, it must be a conservative conspiracy!

    Get over yourself, and try to imagine a world where people you disagree with aren't necessarily evil.

  60. jewish comintern 2.0 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    at work here.

    google for "czar jews" and learn more about the folks with a messiah complex.

  61. Re: Paid Trolls? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    who says we will need to grow infintely ? the bible, the wahabists and the commies ?

    time to use non semite theories, it appears.

    and no thats not nazi.

  62. Fermi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Perhaps Fermi is less of a paradox and more of a principal?

  63. In other words... by TheRealLifeboy · · Score: 1

    "The question may really be whether we can get past paid trolls, FUD, and finger pointing in order to act wisely in a timely manner." translated means: There should be not discussion, dissent or alternative opinions. You will only believe our version of the future.

    Reminds me of the Y2K extinction event...

    So here's your first opponent: Bolloks. Even if some of your assertions are true, the world is a living breathing organism. New life appears. Old life adapts. Things change. Climate changes. Things stay the same. Nothing new. Get over it.

    1. Re:In other words... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Do you know why Y2K was mostly not a problem? It's because a lot of people worked at making it not a problem. It took weeks of my time, and I was only involved an a couple of easy parts.

      A good analogy would be the ozone hole. People were saying that there would be serious consequences if nothing was done. However, we did some things, and avoided the more serious consequences.

      Similarly, if we carefully restore habitat, reverse our effects on the climate, etc., we won't have an extinction event.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  64. Re:Paid Trolls? by doccus · · Score: 1

    Well, this time he's right, but not for the right reason. The real extinction event is occurring in the pacific ocean, first , and then on land..in 30 years the level of radioactivity from Fukushima, in large sections of the Pacific will match that inside the reactors.. althogh it doesn't need that much to extinguish all but algael and bacterial life. Or us. with huge concentrations of CO2 in the ocean, a strong atmospheric pressure change could cause a Carbon Dioxide release that would suffocate hundreds of millions overnight. And of course there's no fish then either.. possibly only the southern hemisphere near antarctica would be left for fishing.. . Roast penguin, anyone?

  65. In a Sense by memebrain · · Score: 1

    I see dead people.

  66. Lemme see...... by LinuxLuver · · Score: 1

    Humans have destroyed, degraded or appropriated habitat on a global scale - on land and in the seas - and pushed most things we can't eat (and many we can) to the edge of extinction and beyond. One. More. Shove.... There. Done.

    --
    Only boring people are ever bored.
  67. Re:Paid Trolls? by LinuxLuver · · Score: 1

    He's right. You just don't know it yet. That's the problem with predictions. By the time the slow among us realise they are correct....it's FAR too late.

    --
    Only boring people are ever bored.
  68. They should stick to the facts by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    Unfortunately this is being reported in the media as equivelant of the big past extinctions which is totally out of proportion. The past extinctions are a whole magnitude or two larger. Exaggeration like this is done to try and get the attention of people but in the end it turns people off because the end up going "Ho-Hum" and ignoring the lies. Stick with the facts. The facts are enough to make the point.

  69. Nonsensical political garbage by ToddInSF · · Score: 1

    " depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way."

    yea, that 10,000 year range sure leads a lot of credibility to their argument.

    This is not research in any meaningful way. this is politics.

  70. KEEP PLAYING IMBECILE, IT IS AFRICANS CAUSING IT by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Excrement Color Anthropoids is a dead end. But you are granting them resources. I could not keep my families ALIVE from them. They are very simple destabilizing young people, our people. If they go extinct... we already know, it is US who do care about environment and have the science and technology so the problem gets solved. Leave them BE and an EMPTY planet will be the result. It is a formal statement, not an opinion and should be recognized as mainstream science anytime soon.

  71. Re: Paid Trolls? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    All of our economies require growth.
    when growth stops we have depressions that kill people.
    therefore when or growth globally stops (for whatever reason) we will lose a large chunk of the population.

  72. It's about time by eric_harris_76 · · Score: 1

    We've had far too many species for far too long. It's about time some of them go away, to make room for new ones.

    I'm kidding. I have no idea what the right number of species is. I don't even know if there *is* a right number of species. And I'm actually a little unsure about how to tell a species from a subspecies, anyway. (I hear the biologists have had some trouble in that area, too.)

    The important thing is, nature shouldn't change. Evolution is done. Change in nature is bad.

    I'm kidding. Of course nature is going to change, whether humans are around or not.

    --
    There's no time like the present. Well, the past used to be.
  73. Re: Paid Trolls? by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

    All of our economies require growth.

    Prove it. In particular, note timescale.

    when growth stops we have depressions that kill people.

    When an economy is such that large numbers of people are on the edge of starvation, sure, any change that causes increased unemployment is going to cause deaths of people unable to feed themselves. But many rich countries are awash in food, and it would take a complete economic collapse lasting more than a year for starvation to become significant.

    therefore when or [???] growth globally stops (for whatever reason) we will lose a large chunk of the population

    By what mechanism? Note, you wrote "growth globally stops", which means production doesn't increase, not "production collapses". If production remains roughly constant, consumption remains roughly constant, and production supports life.

    --
    Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  74. Re:Paid Trolls? by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

    in 30 years the level of radioactivity from Fukushima, in large sections of the Pacific will match that inside the reactors

    You are loony.

    --
    Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  75. Extinction by iMactheKnife · · Score: 1

    Does it involve a new tax? Hmmm.

  76. Re: Paid Trolls? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

    Economies can grow without using more resources, by increasing efficiency and developing better versions of the same thing.

    --
    "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  77. Re:Some species should be made extinct by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't see you mentioning genetics here. Are you seriously suggesting that flat noses, huge fat lips, greater aggressiveness and a demonstrably-lower average IQ are all the products of excessive sunshine?