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What Will Happen When Cascadia Subduction Zone Slips
Noryungi writes: The New Yorker has published a chilling account of what would happen in the case of a major earthquake (roughly magnitude 9.0) inevitably striking the Cascadia subduction. "Under pressure from Juan de Fuca, the stuck edge of North America is bulging upward and compressing eastward, at the rate of, respectively, three to four millimetres and thirty to forty millimetres a year. It can do so for quite some time, because, as continent stuff goes, it is young, made of rock that is still relatively elastic. (Rocks, like us, get stiffer as they age.) But it cannot do so indefinitely." Most of the west coast of the U.S. and Canada is at risk, from Vancouver all the way down to Los Angeles and beyond. Most of the states and cities within this region are woefully under-prepared for a large earthquake. Scientists peg the odds at 1-in-3 for a quake within the next 50 years, and 1-in-10 for a really powerful one.
Geology is a Commie Pinko pseudo-science. God-fearing Kochites know that scientists are evil monsters who must be destroyed!!!! Vote GOP and get a government that knows what to do with scientists.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
That's really nice of you to wish death and destruction on millions of people because you see them as "arrogant".
than Juan will be fuca'd
Think I'll wait for the DVD
Are rocks stiff in the morning, too?
Get free satoshi (Bitcoin) and Dogecoins
....since when it goes off, it'll probably either be in conjunction with or set off the Yellowstone supervolcano, and everyone else will have their own catastrophic issues to deal with.
Hey, but at least we might stop hearing about global warming for a while. There's a silver lining.
-Styopa
Are you sure that a disaster on the coastal infrastructure will have negligible effect on the non-coastal regions of the country? Last I checked our ports are on the coast and our ports are where most of our clothing [1], and non-negligible amount of food [2] come from.
[1] http://abcnews.go.com/Business...
[2] http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafi...
Everything will be destroyed or flooded except for Ozzy Osbourne's mansion. Ozzy is immortal. You can't kill him. He's survived more self-abuse than humanly possible. He'll rise above the ashes and throw a concert for the survivors. :P
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
You guys are behind the times, this is Hilary's fault.
I though that was Lemmy.
The simple truth is that interstellar distances will not fit into the human imagination
- Douglas Adams
That's because the really arrogant assholes are in the midwest.
If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
... the quake will show how stunningly unprepared that region will be for the ensuing catastrophe.
I was about to comment that I'm pretty sure there was a James Bond movie where this was part of the plot.
And then I went and started reading the linked article, and the whole article is talking about a guy called Goldfinger.
Why not take out of Oklahoma's or Texas's playbook and do some fracking near the fault line? It will likely cause earthquakes but hopefully they would be minor, and would relieve the pressure a little bit at a time, instead of all at once.
It figures. When something like a mild climate seems too perfect there is some catch like impending doom. At least it's not tornado alley, right? Stock up on water and nonperishables. If you live through it there will be no plumbing or power for a while.
I've been told for the last 30+ years that the BIG ONE that will send California off into the Pacific Ocean is coming any day. Guess what? It should happen within the next 30 years. If the next 30 years was like the last 30 years, I got nothing to worry about.
This jumped out at me:
"In 2009, Dougherty told me, he found some land for sale outside the inundation zone, and proposed building a new K-12 campus there. Four years later, to foot the hundred-and-twenty-eight-million-dollar bill, the district put up a bond measure. The tax increase for residents amounted to two dollars and sixteen cents per thousand dollars of property value. The measure failed by sixty-two per cent."
The average house price in Oregon is $246,000. I assume in this area due to proximity to the ocean it will be higher, but let's just use the average. That "measly" $2.16 is $531.36 a year. The average American leaves home at 21 (and thus, even if renting, is in some way exposed economically to those taxes) and dies at 79. That's 58 years exposed to property taxes. Assuming an average interest rate of 3% over all that time, that school cost the average citizen $369,826.56.
I am happy to see, however, that 62% of people in that city know that $2.16 can actually cost them almost $370k.
I already know what will happen. We will spend no time or money preparing for it but billions and billions and years and years paying for our lack of planning.
If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
Every so often I like to look over this list just so see what kinds of things can go wrong with the planet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
This one has always gotten my attention, I have heard about from multiple sources.
10 deadliest volcanic eruptions --1815 eruption of Mount Tambora-- 92,000 dead -- Year Without a Summer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
It just boggles my mind that there is a real potential for global disaster like this. I believe there is only a 40-90 day world wide food surplus available. I remember in the 1970s there were some discussions on the talking head shows about it. I think it was after Vietnam and the talking heads were scraping the barrel for things to get people excited about. A few economists said it was too big of a capital expenditure on something with a speculative return. But the possibility of an event is not 0... gives me something to ponder when I don't have anything else to worry about.
When the 'end-of-the-world' disaster comes, it won't be the one you were expecting.
--Welcome to the Realm of the Hawke--
"Scientists whose continued research grants depend upon a finding of imminent doom peg the odds at 1 in 10 of a really powerful one in the next 50 years."
There's also a problem with liquefaction. Most of Victoria and Vancouver (in BC) are built on soft earth which will become mud and will stop supporting the stuff we've built. All those foundations, bridges, streets, they'll all become impassable. There's a liquefaction map I saw at an engineering presentation and the whole thing was red and black. Victoria is literally built on landfill garbage right next to the ocean. One of its landmark buildings, the Empress Hotel, was slowly sinking until it had a major refurb to drive piles down as far as they could reach.
Vancouver is the biggest port for exporting all of Canada's wheat, lumber, ore, etc. If it shuts down, people could be starving for work and food all over the world. It's not all bad though, because EA North would cease to exist. However, greater Vancouver is where most of BC's engineers live and work. We're your experts in fixing up after an earthquake, and most of us would probably be gone.
It's going to be bad when it hits. The upside is that most people here have earthquake kits, emergency supplies, ninja reflexes (we do earthquake drills) and have some idea that it will in fact happen.
---
ECHELON is a government program to find words like bomb, jihad, plutonium, assassinate, and anarchy.
I can't wait until this happens. CNN will spin off a whole channel for nonstop coverage.
Los Angeles had a minor earthquake some years ago. I think it was like a 4.0 or so, a truck rumble at best. CNN kept running a black-and-white surveillance video of a grocery story where absolutely nothing moved in the background. Nothing falling, nothing breaking, nothing anything. But CNN made it sound like the BIG ONE already happened and California was sliding into the Pacific Ocean.
Who is this Juan de Fuca? How is he applying so much pressure on the United States? He must be stopped. It's not our fault, it's his.
I'm not worried about quakes, they are of course bad but the effects of them aren't long lasting. I'm more worried about when Yellowstone decides to erupt.
If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
Look guys, if I told you once, its like I told you hundred times. I told you what to do when earthquakes are predicted. It worked for Memphis. It will work again. Proven remedy.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Shame then the mid west leech states will actually have to start contributing,
What Will Happen When Cascadia Subduction Zone Slips?
On the West coast we'll all fuckin' die, that's what will happen.
Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
Seriously, we're all doomed here on the west-coast, run-away! sell your property, save yourselves! It's all just rain and drought here anyway - nothing to see here, move along. The midwest is where you you should go. All that nice safe open space. Leave us poor clueless left coasters to die. oh... and take all the telephone sanitizers with you.
As the hipster fail which is Seattle will be flushed out to sea.
"How dare you sir." I'm certain my President Bush would site the movie 2012 as a valid reference, and with biblical quotes to support his supporters.
I can't wait until this happens. CNN will spin off a whole channel for nonstop coverage.
Los Angeles had a minor earthquake some years ago. I think it was like a 4.0 or so, a truck rumble at best. CNN kept running a black-and-white surveillance video of a grocery story where absolutely nothing moved in the background. Nothing falling, nothing breaking, nothing anything. But CNN made it sound like the BIG ONE already happened and California was sliding into the Pacific Ocean.
I was in the San Francisco Bay Area for the World Series in 1989 during the earthquake that was about 7.0. While the shaking was scary, when you watched CNN, all you saw was a picture of one of the deck plates on the bay bridge that fell onto the one below, and some close up shots of some houses in San Francisco that had partially collapsed (they were build on fill in an area that used to be part of the bay so the ground liquefied). Based on what they showed and what they said, you would think that all of the major roads were impassable, the bridge itself had actually collapsed, and the area was like a war zone. The reality is I had to drive far out of my way to find any visible damage or effect beyond a few items that had fallen off shelves (and the baseball game being cancelled). What I saw on the news and what I saw out my hotel room window were two vastly different things.
What sells news is scary stuff, so they look for things that look scary and then push that like there is no tomorrow, or if necessary, they invent the scary stuff for the same reasons.
They are saying there is a 1 in 3 chance that California will experience an earthquake sometime in the next 50 years? Doesn't California suffer Earthquakes on a regular basis? I thought maybe they were talking about major quakes, but the summary immediately goes on to talk about the odds of a major quake.
I read the internet for the articles.
How can an inner bread trailer dwelling meth addict be an arrogant asshole?
in construction jobs, funeral homes business and new jobs for those that have to replace the dead.
by TheSpoom (715771) Uncaring Linux user here. I have nothing to add to this but please continue. *munches popcorn*
I live in Minnesota and will enjoy watching the left coast carnage on Fox News.
I was working with my father in San Francisco and Oakland, driving across the Bay Bridge twice before the 1989 earthquake. After we got home in San Jose and the earthquake hit, we turned on the TV. A bit scary watching the news as we passed through all the damaged areas prior to the earthquake.
Maybe the aftershocks from a very large quake could set that off.
Like no one noticed or cared when the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami hit or the 2001 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that destroyed the Fukushima nuclear plant hit. When the next Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake hits it will result in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in damage that will take years to recover from.
And don't worry about anthropogenic global warming, you'll be hearing about it for the rest of your life because it's not going away.
Now that will be Bush's fault.
It's way too early in the election season to be turning every thread into a dung slinging festival. Especially since (as is obvious from this thread) the parrots don't have anything to say that hasn't been said a million times already.
The net present value of annual payments of $531.36 over 58 years, at a discount rate of 3%, is $14,958.
Meaning if you set aside $15,000 today in an account earning 3%, you'd have enough money to make those 58 annual payments of $531.36. Per your scenario, the actual cost of the tax increase is about $15,000 per household (consisting of more than one taxpayer on average)
And if Dougherty's property tax millage rate is fully amortizing the bond, then those payments aren't for 58 years, but for the life of the bond, which is probably 30 years. In which case the NPV drops to $10,727 per household.
Not sure where you're getting $369,826 per taxpayer from.
I don't understand your attitude. Was the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake a hoax? How about the 2011 earthquake off Japan? It is well known that the last major earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone was January 26, 1700 at about 9:00 PM, 300 years ago. To expect it won't happen again is foolishness.
1. Keep a container of water and a whistle in each room. You can survive a month without food, but only 2-3 days without water.
2. There is not enough airlift to rescue even 1/20th of the injured. Only children in schools will be rescued. If you are in a Deep Bertha Tunnel, you will die there as the power goes out and the fans and pumps stop working.
3. Don't worry about Tsunami risk if you live in the Puget Sound, south of Everett. Unless you live within a block of the ocean. If so, get on the roof.
4. Half of all buildings and bridges will collapse in anything over an 8.0. Nothing we can do about that. You're safer in buildings built since the 90s.
5. Don't you wish you had a solar panel now? That will keep working, even in cloud cover. Enough for a fridge and microwave.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
This reminds me of the 1971 Ben Bova short story A Slight Miscalculation", where a scientist creates a theory to predict earthquakes. He only makes a slight miscalculation...
It's "the next 30 years" as in "economical Fusion power will happen in 30 years /is 30 years away."
Actually, the University of Washington is making real fusion reactors.
Keep up.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Since the land is rising at 4mm per year, that should easily cancel out the sea level rise from Global Warming--oops Climate Change. Problem solved! Unless we all freeze to death from the Sun going dormant in 2030.
Every area has its potential natural disasters, The west coast has earthquakes/volcanoes, the East coast has some earthquake risks and significant hurricane risks, the center of the country has a super volcano and significant tornado risks and areas in the northeast have significant snowstorms. Every area should prepare for the risks associated with their region, and within those regions people/communities living in especially high risk areas (flood plains, mud slide areas, avalanche areas, pyroclastic flow ares, etc) need to either accept that risk and not expect significant outside assistance or get out of them.
Farnsworth fusors don't count.
CNN will spin off a whole channel for nonstop coverage.
I'd love to see CNN's logo files. You know they have that shit in the chamber and they just pull the trigger when it's time. It's just like celebrity obit files.
Translation: "Someone from California was rude to me once, and I'm still fuming about it".
...It's just popular because it's told in the form of an action movie.
This just in. On a long enough timeline everyone will be killed by
... quakes,... the effects of them aren't long lasting.
Tell that to the residents of Atlantis.
It will be Hillary's fault. Sadly, she will be the next president. Bush will get the nomination. Trump will throw a fit, saying it isn't fair, he was robbed. He will form a 3rd party and run as an independent. This will pull a substantial number of Republican votes from Bush (Ross Perot all over again) This will allow Hillary to win. Anyone that thinks Trump is a Republican, is drinking or smoking some weird stuff! Trump has supported Hillary a lot, and funneled money to her NY State campaign, plus they are good friends. Trump wants to continue to be on tv, radio, newspapers, plus, he would have to put all his holdings and the like in a blind trust. You think he is going to give up the limelight and the money, by becoming president? He's in this to make sure Bush gets the nod, then do the Ross Perot thing to ensure a Hillary victory.
All those 1970's disaster movies again? "The Towering Inferno", "Airport", "Airplane", "Godzilla", "The China Syndrome" and "Earthquake" must have just shown up on Netflix or something...
They are NOT documentaries, they are theatrical productions people!
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
With any luck yellowstone will let go and with the sides pushing in It'll turn the middle into a giant lava lake :-)
(not to hot on geography, not going to google it, I'd like to keep it as a nice mind picture as I watch the news and think "If only" )
If you don't like what the midwest contributes, then you could just live without it.
Good luck growing enough crops to feed yourselves, coasties. And, BTW, this is why we keep our guns. Don't bother crawling back, we don't want you.
I don't understand your attitude. ... It is well known that the last major earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone was January 26, 1700 at about 9:00 PM, 300 years ago. To expect it won't happen again is foolishness.
Are you using the word "foolishness" in relation to politicians or scientists - 'cause one is to be expected and one is not.
It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
The old line about "beachfront property" in Arizona will come true! Buy some property NOW on the west side of Arizona.
Allow me to introduce you to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Fifty years of Yippie! 1968-2018
I was using it in relation to the AC I replied to any anyone else who thinks a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake is a hoax.
It'll be the terrestrial equivalent of the moon exploding in Neal Stephenson's latest novel....just the beginning of a bunch of bad stuff that humanity will have to deal with.
Actually, it translates as "I'm a basement-dwelling troll in the inland part of the country who resents that the coasts have a lot going on and I have neither the professional or social skills to succeed in that environment."
AWESOME. So my home in Las Vegas will suddenly become 'beach front property'! That's cool. :-)
No obviously 'not cool' for the 100's of millions of people that will be affected. But really, we've been 'talking' about such an event for ages & each dire prediction always comes with 'people are woefully unprepared'...but here's the thing, what exactly does anyone think 'people' will be able to do to prepare for this eventuality short of having 'survival gear' to hopefully help them make it through until a rescue comes? Sure there may be some architectual changes that could help limit the amount of damage but when large parts of California are predicted to become an 'island off the new coast' which means that other very large parts will be under water what exactly does anyone think people are going to be able to do to stop that from happening? And what exactly in terms of 'emergency measures' would have to be in place to save many 10's of millions of people in 'real time' from dying. There simply aren't enough planes, trains, boats, helicopters & automobiles much less 'trained people' to take on this task.
Sure, go ahead & plan as much as possible for 'rescure missions' but any such plan must recognize that 'many 10s of millions of people' will die. That will be tragic but short of moving everyone out of California & Vancouver/BC what more can be done? Perhaps someone can come up with a better model to the point tha maybe, just maybe they'll be able to 'predict' the earthquake with a high degree of accuracy but when someone gives 'odds' of '1 in 3 in the next 50 years' that's not something anyone can plan with.
I did say "economical" for a reason. :)
Actually, the University of Washington is making real fusion reactors.
You can make a working fusion reactor in your kitchen. I think there's even a kit you can buy online these days. Economical fusion power is the interesting thing - heck, even a sustainable net-positive-power reactor would be a huge step.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
You're talking about a region with very complex infrastructure. When the fault slips it will be impressive. Much of the built environment in populated regions nearby would fall over because they're not designed to withstand even a fraction of an earthquake that size. We are talking bridges, high-rises, houses... I think this article paints a rosy picture of the results and the only saving grace is that none of the major population centers are particularly close to the fault itself or exposed to the ocean where they're at risk of a tsunami.
We're talking an international disaster area of epic proportions. I wouldn't be surprised if tens of thousands died on top of those lost in the quake and tsunami itself due to difficulty in getting supplies to them with so much transportation infrastructure destroyed.
Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
Ask Neal Adams. He thinks subduction itself is a hoax.
The gene pool needs cleaning.
If Ebola doesn't come through, this or the Yellowstone volcano could be the best hope.
Video from the Victimless Crimes Unit. Can you mod this "Funny and Die" ?
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/15/ricardo-diaz-zeferino-video-of-shooting-by-los-angeles-police-made-public
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/07/judge-releases-video-of-cops-killing-suspect-despite-pd-objections/
Just ask Whoopie.
Quacks don't like accountants.
About 10% of great earthquakes trigger a volcanic eruption, and most eruptions are fairly minor, so the volcano risk is small compared to the earthquake risk.
I live in Olympia, and I like to say that when the big one hits, Mt. Ranier is going to blow, and as the black lightning-filled clouds tower over us in the east, all of the metal bands in town will climb onto the roofs of all of the buildings with all of their equipment and it will be the most Metal day ever. But it looks like experts believe otherwise. https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/...
The Cascadia Fault has no relationship whatsoever to Yellowstone. A Yellowstone eruption is pretty unlikely as it is, but in any case the rupture in Cascadia would not change that.