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US No-Fly List Uses 'Predictive Judgement' Instead of Hard Evidence

HughPickens.com writes: The Guardian reports that in a little-noticed filing before an Oregon federal judge, the US Justice Department and the FBI conceded that stopping U.S. and other citizens from traveling on airplanes is a matter of "predictive assessments about potential threats." "By its very nature, identifying individuals who 'may be a threat to civil aviation or national security' is a predictive judgment intended to prevent future acts of terrorism in an uncertain context," Justice Department officials Benjamin C Mizer and Anthony J Coppolino told the court. It is believed to be the government's most direct acknowledgment to date that people are not allowed to fly because of what the government believes they might do and not what they have already done. The ACLU has asked Judge Anna Brown to conduct her own review of the error rate in the government's predictions modeling – a process the ACLU likens to the "pre-crime" of Philip K Dick's science fiction. "It has been nearly five years since plaintiffs on the no-fly list filed this case seeking a fair process by which to clear their names and regain a right that most other Americans take for granted," say ACLU lawyers.

The Obama administration is seeking to block the release of further information about how the predictions are made, as damaging to national security. "If the Government were required to provide full notice of its reasons for placing an individual on the No Fly List and to turn over all evidence (both incriminating and exculpatory) supporting the No Fly determination, the No Fly redress process would place highly sensitive national security information directly in the hands of terrorist organizations and other adversaries," says the assistant director of the FBI's counterterrorism division, Michael Steinbach.

29 of 264 comments (clear)

  1. Right to travel...? by serviscope_minor · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Tell me Mr Anderson, what good is a phone call if you can't speak?

    Sure, feel free to walk to whereever you want to go.

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
    1. Re:Right to travel...? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Not a REASONABLE choice.

      This is what happense when people relenquish CONTROL. Homeland security and their TSA dogs were supposed to just keep everybody safe, but we see it is much more than that. It's only a matter of time. until they expand on the information they require. They have already asked me for the name of Facebook account, and other information; disinformation can be useful. I provided them with nothing because "I don't have one".

      TSA is also located in train stations and bus stations, and we already have Border Patrol with checkpoints far away from the border, and other law enforcement setting up checkpoints in other parts of the country, and the judges are just going along with it, which makes them accessories, or just plain stupid. They have metal detectors and police in schools, and there are rumors of Metal detectors and armed guards being set up at movie theatres and malls.

      This is exactly what the Nazis did. It's what happens in all totalitarian societies, when powerful people get into political offices, and those people need removed. And many people are convinced that peaceul solutions are no longer an option.

    2. Re:Right to travel...? by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 5, Interesting

      What is important is if they have a totalitarian mindset or not.

      Not really - the neuroscience on this is pretty clear - exercising power makes them into bad people. It's a long, slow process for most, but the brain's reward system is something that science can study, has studied in this case, and has found clear results.

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    3. Re:Right to travel...? by kilfarsnar · · Score: 2

      They have metal detectors and police in schools, and there are rumors of Metal detectors and armed guards being set up at movie theatres and malls.

      Which probably has less to do with anyone's totalitarian ambitions and more with the seemingly neverending supply of armed domestic terrorists striking there.

      Never ending supply? There were 1.27 billion movie tickets sold in the US and Canada in 2014. Let's say, for the sake of ease, that half those were sold to Americans. That's over 600,000,000 tickets. Now how many people were killed at theaters? 100? Probably less than that. So what purpose would metal detectors serve, other than to be a huge pain in the ass for everyone involved?

      I think you're right, that this is driven more by irrational fear than totalitarian ambitions. But those ambitions do exist, so it's wise to watch out for them as well.

      --
      "What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
  2. They just don't want to get sued by rossdee · · Score: 5, Insightful

    for racial /religious profiling

    1. Re:They just don't want to get sued by bondsbw · · Score: 2

      Well, there are two solutions I can think of to fix this:

      1) Stop profiling and only use hard evidence. The downside is that they may be giving up a weapon that, for all its bad, is a net good. (As in, inconveniencing a few million people is worth saving a few hundred lives.)

      2) Stop profiling and put everyone on the no-fly list. Then make everyone clear their names before being allowed to fly.

      --
      All my liberal friends think I'm a conservative, all my conservative friends think I'm a liberal.
    2. Re:They just don't want to get sued by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      The downside is that they may be giving up a weapon that, for all its bad, is a net good. (As in, inconveniencing a few million people is worth saving a few hundred lives.)

      Last time I checked, airport security theatre had not saved one single life or stopped one single terrorist attempt.

    3. Re:They just don't want to get sued by StikyPad · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If inconveniencing a few million people is worth saving a few hundred lives, then inconveniencing a few hundred million people is worth saving tens of thousands of lives, yes?

      So let's ban driving.

      Shall we continue, or can we agree that line of reasoning would lead to all sorts of unintended consequences?

      "National security," needs to be reserved for existential threats. Terrorism is not, and has never been, an existential threat, and it should be treated proportionally, as a crime.

    4. Re:They just don't want to get sued by mrbester · · Score: 2

      Goats are caprines. Sheep are ovines.

      --
      "Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
    5. Re:They just don't want to get sued by Half-pint+HAL · · Score: 2

      Yes, virtually every terrorist threat to the United States is sponsored or instigated by some Islamic group or individual.

      Only if you ignore all the ones from white, nominally-Christian Americans.

      --
      Got them moderator blues I blieve I walk out the do', With these mod-points I been gettin', I 'most never post no mo'
  3. Nice Nazi regime you got there by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Land of the free", indeed... I'm quite amazed how you Americans put up with all that.

    1. Re:Nice Nazi regime you got there by edibobb · · Score: 2

      We are cattle.

    2. Re:Nice Nazi regime you got there by ihtoit · · Score: 2

      you know if it wasn't for us "Eurofag"s, you arseholes would be speaking Cherokee.

      You're welcome.

      --
      Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
  4. Secret Laws and Rules are the Threat to Security by Nyder · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Secret Laws and Rules do not create national security, they are the threat to national security. The problem is, without a clear set of rules, it's a law that is open to abuse towards whomever those who are in charge don't like. Secret laws & courts are what shows you that instead of caring about protecting it's citizen, the government is using it to further their own ends.

    We can NOT have freedom when we have secret laws & courts.

    --
    Be seeing you...
  5. Re:Proof by currently_awake · · Score: 2

    Under the Constitution of the US you have the right to a trial before you get punished. Sure this is only flying, but they could extend this to train travel with ease, and then car travel.

  6. Re:Gotta love it by AntronArgaiv · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Yeah, but it's no big deal that the secretary of state was using her own private email server to store top secret and confidential information.

    Ironically, given the recent OPM and IRS breaches, Clinton's server was perhaps more secure than the State Department's... :-)

  7. In other news... by meta-monkey · · Score: 4, Insightful

    In other news, during criminal procedures the prosecutor will no longer be obligated to present evidence the defendant is guilty of a crime before incarcerating them.

    "If the Government were required to provide full notice of its reasons for placing an individual in prison and to turn over all evidence (both incriminating and exculpatory) supporting the incarceration determination, the incarceration process would place highly sensitive criminal justice information directly in the hands of criminals and other adversaries, like the American people," said some fuckstick.

    --
    We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
  8. Re:Gotta love it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Uh....you know that this all started under Bush, right?

    Right?

    And the current administration utterly failed to change it.

  9. So dangerous they can't fly but by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So let me get this straight these people are so dangerous that they can't fly yet aren't dangerous enough to be brought in for questioning, gotten off the streets for the safety of the general public, and are likely not under direct surveillance? I am a bit confused here.

    And before someone mods this troll that was sarcasm. I also happen to believe that if the administration were to reveal their "State Secrets" it would be something like the emperor has no cloths.

    --
    Time to offend someone
  10. winter soldier, zola's algorithm by lkcl · · Score: 5, Interesting

    whilst others may quote george orwell 1984, philip k dick, V for Vendetta, minority report and so on, i'm reminded of the more recent film captain america winter soldier, in which a swiss nazi/hydra scientist, who was permitted to work in the US after the 2nd world war, creates an "algorithm" that can read people's online digital fingerprint, predicts whether they are likely to be a threat (to hydra's "new world order"), and the results are used to murder them... *before* they can act.

    the justifications for such action - delivered by the character played by robert redford - sound so completely sane and rational that it's genuinely hard - rationally - to come up with a counter-argument. questions are asked such as "what if we could stop terrorists before they act?" and to be absolutely honest, the responses by the actors were really not that convincing, as they sounded lame in their "emotive" and "moral conscience" justification.

    and that's really illustrative of what we're seeing here. these films merely reflect to us what's *actually* going on. these films are pointing out to us that there are *genuinely* people out there who can, with no moral conscience whatsoever and with a blatant disregard for the spirit of the U.S. Constitution, use purely rational logic to justify the removal of freedom and even of life itself.

    the problem is, i feel, that the founding fathers had just been through a war that tore what is now known as the U.S. apart: the lesson was burned into their minds, and it brought together people with good conscience to make sensible and far-sighted committments, in the form of "The Constitution".

    by contrast, i cannot honestly say that i can even guess at what truly drives the current power-hungry people who make decisions like the ones that they're making right now. we have people like bruce schneier "calling out" their "security theatrics", but that's just a symptom, not the underlying motivation. we see glimpses that something terribly strange is going on - https://www.youtube.com/watch?... - but it's sufficiently orwellian that even i have a hard time comprehending the implications.

    so help me out here: someone please help me to understand why there are people in the world's leading nation - the one that all others look up to - who would blatantly disregard the principles on which the U.S. Constitution is founded.

    1. Re:winter soldier, zola's algorithm by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Insightful

      someone please help me to understand why there are people in the world's leading nation - the one that all others look up to - who would blatantly disregard the principles on which the U.S. Constitution is founded.

      The Constitution was designed to LIMIT the power of the Federal Government. It has been extended in ways that also limit the power of State governments (14th Amendment, for example).

      There are people in the world to whom POWER is everything. You can frequently identify them by looking at a ballot in an election - you run for office not to "serve" the public, but to "master" them. Yes, "civil servant" is pretty much equivalent to "civil master" in most situations...

      In other words, never trust a politician - he/she didn't run for office for the pay, but for the perks (getting to tell other people what to do)....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  11. Re:Citizens = Adversaries by AntronArgaiv · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "If the Government were required to provide full notice of its reasons for placing an individual on the No Fly List and to turn over all evidence (both incriminating and exculpatory) supporting the No Fly determination, the No Fly redress process would place highly sensitive national security information directly in the hands of terrorist organizations and other adversaries"

    So are US citizens regarded as a terrorist organization or just "Other Adversaries" now? Silly me, I thought we were the bosses of the government. Been reading that Constitution too much. It'll warp your brain.

    No, the information *would not* be placed directly into the hands of terrorists. The information need only be provided only to the defendant's lawyer, an officer of the court, who could be cleared to receive it, and promise, under threat of prosecution, not to divulge it to the defendant.

    This is crap, just like the no-fly list, and the TSA searches. I'm sure there are people too dangerous to fly. But there can't be many of them. And if you're a regular American citizen, who hasn't been convicted of a crime, the Government should have to explain to you why they're restricting your ability to travel by air. If they can't explain it to you, you should be allowed to fly. To do otherwise comes awfully close to violating your rights under the fourth amendment tothe Constitution.

    And our elected representatives are a bunch of pussies for not standing up and saying that.

  12. Freedom does not mean no laws by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We cannot have freedom when we have any laws at all.

    Freedom is not the ability to do whatever you want whenever you want. Never has been. That is anarchy which is not the same thing. Freedom is FAR more complicated than the absence of laws. Freedom is not just absence of restrictions on you but also absence of things being done TO you. A complete absence of laws for you necessarily means a loss of freedom for me because there is nothing restraining you (or me) from removing other people's freedom. Societies cannot exist without rules, both formal and informal and yet freedom under reasonable definitions of the term still exists.

    If there is no law against slavery is the slave-owner free? The slave certainly isn't. But with laws against slavery we can fairly describe both people as free so the absolutist definition of freedom only existing when there are no laws simply makes no sense.

    1. Re:Freedom does not mean no laws by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 2, Interesting

      We cannot have freedom when we have any laws at all.

      Freedom is not the ability to do whatever you want whenever you want. Never has been. That is anarchy which is not the same thing. Freedom is FAR more complicated than the absence of laws.

      Then freedom is not possible to ever happen. Some peopel want to do things to others, and consider it a restriction of their freedoms to do those things to others.

      Any law anywhere, about anything restricts someone's freedom. And yeah, no laws is indeed anarchy. But everyone is free then, but of course, there are those who insist that one of their freedoms is removing freedoms from others.

      We see this in areas like gay marriage, where there are groups that would deny marriage to other groups, even though the other group being married has no iimpact on them at all, except foro removing their freedom to restrict the other group's freedom.

      It's a paradox. But it's real. Actual freedom does not exist. The mere act of forming a society restricts freedom greatly. And that's probably a good thing.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
  13. It's not about terrorism by whoever57 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Last year (?) a teenager was able to get over the perimeter fence and get on a plane. Later, they announced that they did not have the money to properly secure the fence. Depite this, exactly zero planes have been subject to terrorist attacks in the USA.

    What do we infer from this? The risk from terrorists trying to blow up planes in the USA is indistinguishable from zero. I can't be the only person to realize this.

    The administration must realize this, yet, they persist with the ridiculous rules about flying. Clearly, the searches, the no-fly-list, etc. have no connection to terrorism. There is some other reason for their existence.

    Reasons for the searches, no-fly-list etc.? Money? Control? Something else?

    --
    The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    1. Re:It's not about terrorism by Firethorn · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Reasons for the searches, no-fly-list etc.? Money? Control? Something else?

      Theater. The appearance of doing something about the 'problem'. I've also heard of it being a disguised jobs/welfare program.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
  14. Total Information Awareness by bl968 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It's John Poindexter's Total Information Awareness. Even though it was blocked by congress it was quietly renamed. The entire Air Screening program is unconstitutional, but the judges just don't have the balls to rule that way in court.

    Total Information Awareness (TIA) was a program of the US Information Awareness Office. It was operated from February until May 2003, before being renamed as the Terrorism Information Awareness Program.[4][5]

    Based on the concept of predictive policing, TIA aimed to gather detailed information about individuals in order to anticipate and prevent crimes before they are committed.[6] As part of efforts to win the War on Terror, the program searched for all sorts of personal information in the hunt for terrorists around the globe.[7] According to Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), TIA was the "biggest surveillance program in the history of the United States".[8]

    The program was suspended in late 2003 by the United States Congress after media reports criticized the government for attempting to establish "Total Information Awareness" over all citizens.[9][10][11]

    Although the program was formally suspended, its data mining software was later adopted by other government agencies, with only superficial changes being made. According to a 2012 New York Times article, the legacy of Total Information Awareness is "quietly thriving" at the National Security Agency (NSA).[12]

    --
    "GET / HTTP/1.0" 200 51230 "-" "Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; Setec Astronomy)"
  15. Re:I am fine with predictive judgement.... by Shadow+IT+Ninja · · Score: 2

    That's as long as the process complies with the due process clause of the 5th Amendment to the US constitution and does not undermine it by precendent.

    ...Nor shall any person be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law....

    As I understand it the main argument, which the ACLU is using, boils down to saying that the no-fly list deprives people of liberty and this "predictive judgement" is not due process of law.

  16. Re: which "no fly" list? It matters. by ZeroWaiteState · · Score: 5, Informative

    That list includes journalists who embarrassed the government, a few actors, some folks who had similar names to dangerous people, etc. This would have never become an issue if the government actually took people off the list when there was a mistake, but they didn't until forced by judicial sanction. For the longest time they refused to acknowledge that such a list existed at all, and refused to verify if anyone had ever been placed on it. How do you resolve mistakes in a list that's top secret? That was the whole problem; excessive secrecy led directly to the abuse they promised wouldn't happen. If they had acted responsibly we wouldn't be here now.