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California's $68 Billion Bullet Train Project Faces Major Hurdles (latimes.com)
New submitter willworkforbeer writes: The proposed US$68B high speed rail project in California faces extraordinary hurdles, both in terms of budget and timeframe. Even Einstein (no, not that one; Herbert Einstein, an MIT civil engineer and top tunneling expert) says the schedule is probably not possible. "Having looked at a number of these long tunnels, [the California] plan is aggressive," said Einstein, who has consulted on a 35-mile-long tunnel under the Swiss Alps. "From a civil engineering perspective it is very, very ambitious — to put it mildly."
New York's 11-mile East Side Access tunnel project is 14 years late and about 2.5x its original budget. If California's 72 miles of tunnels (twin tunnels of 36 miles) go like New York's, that would be over US$160B spent, with an opening date sometime in the 2030s. The article goes through a number of complicating factors for the tunnels, from the major faults they must cross to the melange of rock types they must drill through.
New York's 11-mile East Side Access tunnel project is 14 years late and about 2.5x its original budget. If California's 72 miles of tunnels (twin tunnels of 36 miles) go like New York's, that would be over US$160B spent, with an opening date sometime in the 2030s. The article goes through a number of complicating factors for the tunnels, from the major faults they must cross to the melange of rock types they must drill through.
Anyone who didn't know this was a giant fucking scam before it even got off the ground has to be a fucking idiot.
who's this for? By the sound of it It's going to be so expensive that if I could afford to take it I'd just take a plane instead. Maybe if we didn't all have cars, but again if you can afford to ride this you can afford a car, and you're probably going to prefer that. If it's just pork I'm surprised it made it though.
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This is absurd (and not an argument presented in the article, because the author isn't a moron). You can't just act like all tunnel building costs are the same per mile, they vary by orders of magnitude. The East Side Access project is to go through some of the most valuable, infrastructure-heavy, densely populated real estate in the US and to merge into Grand Central Terminal.
"Oh, goodness. Look at my wrist, I have to go." "But what about your clothes?" "I don't love these."
Fucking build it. We excel at building giant projects. This is an infrastructure project that will pay off in spades over the next 200 years. It's not like the zombie apocalypse is going to come through and wipe out 2/3rds the population of California every 25 years. Long term this is absolutely needed. Just cough up the dough and move forward with it. Dig those tunnels, lay that track.
Big projects need big vision, and if we don't have that kind of vision in America anymore, I don't want to live here anymore, we're just any other country.
P.S. Even Morocco has high speed rail now. Let's try and keep up with Northern Africa perhaps? "Oh it's such a big project we can't handle that". Well fucking fire that guy let's put someone in place that actually believes they can do their own damn job. You don't hire a guy who's afraid of heights to do your balancing wire act at the circus.
moox. for a new generation.
... I can state two things:
- it's buying the land that shifts the schedule. Definitely true, to the extent the south-east is not covered by our 'bullet-trains' 20 years after going operational elsewhere (TGV is for 'hi-speed-train' in french, over 300Km/h)
- when the rails are done, then, it's over for train/airplane competition. Definitely. 90% of the air traffic switches to rail.
Even when the rail stations are not close to cities.
When adding every delay, car/parking/x-ray/plane and the same at the other hand, generally the bullet train is at least as fast, and way less of a bother (no X-ray, you can take metallic objects, load your computer, walk and get decent coffee in a decent train bar...)
So, to me it's a matter of patience but the switch is unavoidable. The only thing is, for people in their fifties like me, one has to be aware this in some places is just an investment for our children, not for us.
Initial estimate - $68 billion and completed by 2022
Final bill - $250 billion, and completed by 2045.
Or, never...But they will spend that $250B.
Anyone who uses the word "melange" is a faggot.
I would have used, "melange" in the submission, if I spoke what my guidance counsellor called "High School Graduate Level English You Moron".
I think I used, "crazy messed up".
Pretending this is my office full of bitter coworkers..
Time to declassify those nuclear-powered tunnel-boring machines?
No one wants it but politicians and construction companies.
This is not true at all. I live in California, and most people I know think it is great idea. It is voter approved. The only people that are opposed to it, are those that can do math, and there aren't many of them left in California.
The article sounds remarkably like the articles written when the Anglo-French Channel Tunnel project was proposed. Various aspects of the project were allegedly impossible when digging began, including concerns about the nature of the rock under the Channel and that the air in the tunnels would overheat because of the absence of ventilation tunnels under the sea. The project did run over-budget, but it worked, and is still working, and has transformed the way people and freight travel along that route.
Virtually serving coffee
J'aime bien les Trains de Grand Vitesse!
Here in Atlanta, we are spending $1.1 Billion on widening just one highway interchange: Contractors vying to build $1.1 billion Ga. 400/I-285 interchange
IMHO, that makes the $68 billion California is spending seem like a bargain since they'll be getting 36 miles of tunnels, plus "300 miles of track, dozens of bridges or viaducts, high-voltage electrical systems, a maintenance plant and as many as six stations".
Years ago, BART in San Francisco was able to tunnel through the same tectonic plate boundary - underwater. A century ago, Switzerland built high tunnels through the Alps like the ones being contemplated here to connect Germany, France and Italy. But because those tunnels required trains to spiral up into the mountains to reach one end and then spiral down from from the other end of the tunnel, It is now driving a series of straight "base tunnels" underneath the entire range. These will allow bullet trains to rip through as though the Alps didn't exist.
Moi aussi. Et les trains à grand vitesse japonaises!
nt
If the government wants to support public transportation, I wish they'd spend money on projects for which there's a demand.
For example in the SF Bay area, a public transit train system is BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit). One problem with BART is a lack of parking spots at its stations. I wish the government would spend a few million dollars to build a multi-story parking lot at the BART stations where there is a shortage of parking spots. That would definitely get more people out of their cars.
The cost overruns they're noting here are almost certainly just the tip of the iceberg. It was originally only said to cost around $34 Billion, they've barely gotten started and its already ballooned to at least in the neighborhood of $70 Billion but even the Authority admits it "may" go up to almost $120 Billion suggesting it will probably hit that and quite possibly go even higher. Even at the ~$70 billion number it is almost double the cost per KM as similar European systems. At the same time the anticipated ticket prices will be below that of world counterparts (20%), specifically set to try to attract airline passengers. And even at that rate its not expected to compete very well with car/truck transportation costs.
We can't do things any more.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Big giant massive nuclear powered autonomous self repairing tunnel boring machines with on board smelters to extract the minerals would work perfectly. We should have had these things 10 years ago. It's the 21st Century for Chrissake! Let's stop living in the 19th...
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
...for a train that no one will ever ride in numbers significant enough to justify it at 1/100 the cost.
According to wiki the entire Interstate system (in 2006 dollars).
If you vote me for governor, I promise to defund the rail, subject to any necessary propositions and/or legislative action. Furthermore, I will use the funds currently set aside for high speed rail to do two things:
1. Eliminate grade crossings at existing rail lines, starting with Caltrain from San Francisco to San Jose, or alternatively starting with those crossings that have killed the most people if the aforementioned route isn't actually the most deadly.
2. If there's sufficient money left over after that, I will establish the SF-LA Autobahn program which will entail building a limited access highway that parallels portions of US 101 and Interstate 5. The program will be partially funded with a special licensing and inspection program, which will permit drives who are willing to pay increased fees to travel at a minimum speed of 80 mph in the right lane, and maximum speed of 200 mph in the passing lane. Autobahn-like lane discipline rules will be strictly enforced.
For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
Elon Musk's Hyperloop is a far better idea for so many reasons, and far cheaper.
Scrap this train and build that instead.
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"Florida Gov. Rick Scott joined three other Republican governors in rejecting Obama administration funds for rail projects, saying a planned high- speed line in his state could saddle taxpayers with $3 billion in added expenses." Yeah, nobody could have predicted this.
If the voters voted to spend a certain amount of money for the bullet train, and if the actual cost is way more, and if the trains will be slower than a bullet train, then does CA have the legal authority to go ahead with the project?
The voters voted for X, and the state is doing Y. Seems to me that the state wouldn't have the authority to do Y, only to do X.
Hyperloop has some advantages here.
1. Large ranges can be approached on a parallel and slowly elevate over instead of drilling.
2. Hyper loop tubes could have more seismic give, similar to oil pipelines in permafrost, than train track.
3. Now that we hav realistic price assessment (more anyway), we can get on our way to having a real comparison with hyperloop.
If you didn't know: Your infrastructure crumbles. Most of is is from the 30s, some was built in the 50s and 60s and that's it. The rest is sometimes a hundred years old or even older. Because you don't want to fund it with higher taxes, that's not going to change.
Public projects like these are going to have cost overruns. The Swiss NEAT (Trans-Alp-Tunnel) is about 65% over budget right now.
You can't have a State, a Country without investing in its infrastructure.
In another decade or two, you'll be just another emerging nation, but with nukes.
You're just proving you're nation as such is not a sustainable model.
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I can't help but wonder how much better the ROI would be if this money was put towards California's urban transportation problems rather than fighting congestion on rural patches of the I-5. Even the infamous MUNI could accomplish wonders with it.
In New Mexico, the Rail Runner connects Santa Fe and Albuquerque, and some other smaller cities.
After 9 years, ridership doesn't pay for operating costs, not even 1/10th of the operating costs, let alone pay for the cost of the capital invested. Add the cost of capital and fares pay only 1/20th of the cost.
California had better think not once, not twice, but ten times about the economic case for their bullet train--if it is as much of a flop as New Mexico's Rail Runner, it'll blow a huge hole in the state's budget.
--PM
The Japanese got it to work but they connected larger population centres than Santa Fe and Albuquerque - just as the Californians are going to do.
It is a bit annoying that the last time a train did 100MpH near where I live was a century ago - on steam FFS.
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Hold the contractors to the price, legally. If they go over, it comes out of their pocket. If they go late, fine the board and the c-suite 1% of the total project per day. Require the c suite and board to stay on the entire time the project is run, or they are jailed.
false. rural is dying. small towns are dead. burbs are dying. all this is good.
The biggest hurdle is that it is not cost effective. It will cost too much to use, and yet still won't pay for itself. We had a similar problem with streetcars in Okahoma City in the early 1900s. When buses came around, they were far cheaper, more maneuverable and could go places that streetcars couldn't, so they were replaced with buses. Now, OKC has the bright idea to raise taxes to create a streetcar system. Hello! History! Read it!.
If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
When I lived there (and voted against it) I vaguely recall the cost per projected rider was a piddly $1200 or so. What's it up to now? Or has it achieved "higher math"??
Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines continues to have direct flights for under $100.
~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
Even if there were NO graft this would be an absolutely useless project. There are so many better ways that the money could be spent that the only possible reason for its existence has to be bribery and corruption. So much for Jesuit training...
a government is required to divert funds towards projects that the private sector would not have built.
Just one problem with your argument. There are hundreds of historical examples of the private sector building railroads. In fact, the private sector was so eager to build railroads that the network was overbuilt; it exceeded demand and a significant fraction of the privately-built railroads entered bankruptcy.
We need to achieve the proper balance between a 19th-century free-for-all, and the current regulatory environment that kills any private initiatives into more modern forms of transportation. When that's accomplished, any route capable of profitable operation would be built. And any route not capable of profitable operation, of course, should not be built.
That that is is that that that that is not is not.
I disagree with the premise of your argument. Just because something is unprofitable does not mean that it should not be built. Also the corollary to that is just because something is profitable doesn't mean it should be built.
For example, a sea wall will never be profitable to the builder. It may or may not prevent property damage in the future but the builder of that sea wall will never ever see those returns. There is no realistic possibility of collecting the funds from the nearby residents, because you are asking them to fund a multi-generational asset which they would only see partial returns on.
Rail is another example. Rail is something that should be considered as part of a wider transport network. If I build rail here, will it reduce load on a road network there? If it does what are the overall economic benefits of that piece of infrastructure? Does that economic benefit exceed the cost of the railway? Note that this is significantly different from "is this railway line profitable?". In fact there are many many many economic arguments for building transport networks that are loss leaders.
If you want to have a look at a non transport equivalent, consider Android the OS. Google develops Android and releases it open source to the market. Loads and loads and loads of people have built devices based on something google did, and not paid a cent to Google. Now Google makes a bucket load of cash from the play store but the actual Android OS is a total cost centre. Google has decided that building Android is better for their wider economy than not building it, despite it not directly making them money. Think about rail the same way, if I build a rail line, does my wider economy benefit?
The market that allowed the rail barons to exist, no longer exists. Land was cheap, labour was cheap, and there was a captive market. Also most of those projects were given government support in some way, be it low interest loans or land grants.
Bullshit. If the sea wall prevents the destruction of property at any occurance which costs more than the sea wall, then it was a profitable endeavor to build it. ROI is calculated by how long it takes to save its own worth in propert that would have otherwise been damaged or destroyed. Profit in the economic sense means you are better off for having done it, not the accounting sense of hard dollars flowing into your pockets.
But the builder of the sea wall will never see those profits. Because the profits are spread across the wider community, unless it is built by the government. There will never be a private entity that will build that sea wall.
Just because something is unprofitable does not mean that it should not be built.
Yes, in most cases, that's exactly what it means. If it's unprofitable, it will have to be subsidized. The perfect example for the subject at hand is Amtrak. The "overall economic benefits" are miniscule compared to the billions in subsidies Amtrak has blown through. Here's just one of many examples of how it's mismanaged:
http://www.the-american-intere...
Why was Amtrak created in the first place? Purely as a pander to two very special interest groups:
1) Politically-connected railworker unions, and
2) Those who wrung their hands about "it's a crying shame what's happened to our railroads... do something to bring back the good old days!" (Not comprehending that there are reasons travelers voted with their dollars and actions such that passenger rail service became unprofitable.)
Please don't double down on the huge mistake that was Amtrak.
That that is is that that that that is not is not.
Just call the Japanese. This entire country (japan), though all the Mountain ranges, and below most cities is a Swiss cheese patchwork of amazing tunnels. They build them on credit in most neighboring countries (i.e. Vietnam and the philipines) and they are glorious feats of engineering. Of course for the question of if high speed rail were a cost effective idea or good idea for California, I have no idea but I'd guess no.
"The train... faces major hurdles"
This should be good.
Political correctness is really just herd psychology pushed by insecure people who desperately seek social conformity.
"Anyone who uses the word "melange" is a faggot."
Or French.
Political correctness is really just herd psychology pushed by insecure people who desperately seek social conformity.
Conversely, many people will also use the word "faggot" as an insult because the thought of having sex with a man is so completely disgusting and revolting that they want apply that derogatory connotation to someone that they don't like.
Political correctness is really just herd psychology pushed by insecure people who desperately seek social conformity.