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Could the Volkswagen Cheating Scandal Improve Emissions Standards? (citiesofthefuture.eu)

dkatana writes: An article in Cities of the Future suggests that the "automaker's emissions scandal could end up being a boon if it pushes governments and the industry to reassess diesel's impact more honestly and move away from it altogether." The article also asks the European Union to accelerate the introduction of new emissions standards, currently slated to take effect in September 2018, and to order mandatory recalls for all the vehicles affected, as Germany has. It points out that some drivers could refuse to have their cars "fixed" out of fear that the diesel engine will lose gas efficiency and power output.

91 of 144 comments (clear)

  1. Predestiny? by msauve · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "automaker's emissions scandal could end up being a boon if it pushes governments and the industry to reassess diesel's impact more honestly and move away from it altogether."

    So, the author has already decided on what the result should be, without the benefit of the reassessment they've said should happen. That doesn't seem "honest" to me.

    --
    "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    1. Re:Predestiny? by bobbied · · Score: 4, Interesting

      To be honest, diesel is dirtier than gasoline no matter how you slice it. It's just really hard to keep diesel emissions down and we've not been pushing the technology to do so as hard as gasoline engines. European governments have pushed diesel use in the past though favorable treatment in tax codes, not necessarily trying to get more diesel cars, but more to permute diesel's use as a transportation fuel.

      I think the article writer is engaged in some wishful thinking though and you are correct that the author is certainly biased. But I also see where it could be read as advocating for regulatory changes which seem long over due in Europe. It's an opinion piece, not a news report....

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    2. Re:Predestiny? by tomhath · · Score: 1

      Try reading the article. The entire opinion piece is that diesel and gasoline powered vehicles should be banned.

    3. Re:Predestiny? by dbc · · Score: 3, Insightful

      But diesels can meet emission standards honestly if auto makers include a urea tank. They just fear consumer reaction to having another consumable fluid (that needs to be refilled every 9 thousand miles, or so) and don't want to do the heavy lifting of consumer education. Considering we are a lot closer to a renewable biodiesel fuel than other fuels, it seems like it makes a lot of sense. Of course, that begs the secondary question of whether farm land should be used to grow food or to grow fuel for cars, but that is a secondary debate.

    4. Re:Predestiny? by bughunter · · Score: 2

      Read the sentence again without being so critical. He's not predetermining the result, he's just saying X = Y && Z .

      If both Y and Z become true, then X (the scandal will be a boon) will become true.

      In this case Y and Z aren't independent variables. Z likely won't happen unless Y does, but Y could happen without causing Z.

      --
      I can see the fnords!
    5. Re:Predestiny? by ganjadude · · Score: 2

      lets all be honest. as far as the customer goes, all any of this means is higher costs on your next new car

      --
      have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
    6. Re:Predestiny? by CCarrot · · Score: 1

      But diesels can meet emission standards honestly if auto makers include a urea tank. They just fear consumer reaction to having another consumable fluid (that needs to be refilled every 9 thousand miles, or so) and don't want to do the heavy lifting of consumer education.

      Or the consumer could provide 'incremental' top-ups. Just market it as a new feature: "No more 'Mom, I gotta go!' during long road trips!" ;-)

      --
      "I love animals! Some are cute, others are tasty, what's not to like?" - Betsy Schroeder, Jeopardy contestant
    7. Re:Predestiny? by bobbied · · Score: 1

      Actually it's the primary debate for me. It makes zero sense (and cents) to go out and actively *grow* motor fuels by farming plants to me. All this ethanol we are making and burning in our gasoline powered cars is pretty stupid environmentally, as is growing oily crops just to burn as fuel. It's also very expensive.

      Personally, and I know this isn't popular with the huge farming voting block, I don't think we should do this, any more than we should pay farmers not to grow specific crops like we have in the past.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    8. Re:Predestiny? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Hmm .. No. There's 17% more energy in a gallon of diesel than a gallon of gasoline. My 2014 TDI achieves 56mpg while cruising at 80mph in 6th gear. A diesel engine produces more torque. Once the vehicle is rolling is uses less energy. I average 680 miles per 12 gallons of diesel. NOx is a byproduct of a lean burning engine. CO emissions of a new TDI is very low. NOx is actually higher when running biodiesel.

    9. Re:Predestiny? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      nah.. an SCR system costs $100.00 every 9k miles and has been proven not to work. The 2.0L TDI with an SCR also exceeds NOx. believe it or not a TDI running biodiesel emits higher NOx.. google it. I own a TDI. I know. My TDI has the LNT system. No SCR. There are 2 Catalytic Converters. The problem with both designs the Catalytic Converters run outside the temperature window. I checked the chemistry of my LNT system. The NOx Cat also has the DPF filter. They used platinum and ceramic with an aluminum oxide coating. The REGEN cycle heats up the CAT to 1100F to incinerate the soot particle that were caught in the filter and the ash is stored in the DPF. The DPF has to be either replaced or removed and cleaned out every 120k miles. My vehicle gets 56mpg cruising at 80mph in 6th gear.. that's the economy that makes it worth it. If the emissions fix reduces mpg and performance then it's not worth it because there are some costly maintenance and diesel costs more than gas. I'm pissed at VW destroying the brands resale value. I have vehicle ADD.. I usually drive something different every 2 to 3 years.

    10. Re:Predestiny? by NotInHere · · Score: 1

      Don't use farm land to farm stuff. Farming is highly inefficient, photovoltaics is much better.
      If you farm crops for fuel, you are doing it wrong.

    11. Re:Predestiny? by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      diesel may be 'dirtier' but their engines are more efficient than a gasoline engine

      Correct, though they are not very much more efficient. Generally it is in the 10% range.

      burning less fuel per mile

      This is true, but misleading. Diesel is more energy-dense. It takes more crude to make diesel than it does gasoline. Apart from the 10% efficiency advantage, it does not burn much less petroleum.

      add the fact that diesel cars tend to be smaller and lighter and therefore more efficient in that regard as well

      I'm not aware of many (any?) diesel-only cars. A diesel car with similar performance will by definition be either (a) heavier or (b) a lot more expensive than a gasoline car.

      we got 40-45+ mpg reliably in any driving condition in a 80s era escort always a 10 gallon fill-up always 400-450+ miles per tank even after 250k miles, and can't break 40 in a late model focus with 100k miles driving highway commutes in the country.

      While that single example may be true, fleet mileage has gone up. Cars are, as a whole, more efficient than in the 1980s. Things have gotten better, not worse.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    12. Re:Predestiny? by SydShamino · · Score: 1

      That's all just VW screwing up. The researchers who found this did so because they were running a BMW and VW side-by-side and saw weird fluctuations in emissions in the VW. The BMW was consistently good.

      So an SCR system has been "proven not to work" - VW's in their 2.0L TDI. Other SCR systems work fine.

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    13. Re:Predestiny? by rtb61 · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Pretty much ban the infernal combustion engine, logical and sound decision. Should have happened decades ago. Think that shit is safe, park in your garage with the engine running and see how long you last. Does any ever have the right to pollute the air someone else breathes.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    14. Re:Predestiny? by calque · · Score: 1

      While that single example may be true, fleet mileage has gone up. Cars are, as a whole, more efficient than in the 1980s. Things have gotten better, not worse.

      I have always gotten worse mileage than the EPA ratings. However, I had a 1992 Civic that would get 36-38 mpg overall, not highway. My 2012 Civic is consistently right around 30 mpg for the same mix of driving in the same area. The '92 had a lean-burn engine that presumably couldn't be made clean enough for modern standards. Fleet mileage improving doesn't mean that cars within a class have necessarily improved.

    15. Re:Predestiny? by calque · · Score: 1

      I have heard that a modern engine would only smother you with carbon dioxide, long before killing you with carbon monoxide. I haven't noticed that a new gasoline car these days smells bad at all so I don't think they are producing much besides CO2 and water.

    16. Re:Predestiny? by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      It's not that cars have gotten worse - you can, after all, still buy a car that gets you 38MPG. But in this case, Civics have gotten larger and more powerful. In 1992, your Civic weighed far less than 2500lbs and had a 1.5 liter, 100 HP engine with stick shift. Now, a Civic is pushing 3000lbs and has a 1.8 liter, 143 HP engine.

      You can get yourself a Honda Fit and have a similar, high-mileage car (albeit with more power). Or you can jump over to a Ford Fiesta and get the SFE edition, which basically gives you a tiny 3-cylinder engine (but still more horsepower than your old Civic!) and good fuel economy.

      Most of the high-mileage market has been usurped by the hybrids.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    17. Re:Predestiny? by calque · · Score: 1

      Hmm .. No. There's 17% more energy in a gallon of diesel than a gallon of gasoline. My 2014 TDI achieves 56mpg while cruising at 80mph in 6th gear.

      This is exactly why I haven't bought a diesel. Even though diesel is cheaper relative to gas than in a long time, it's still 13.7% more expensive where I live, which means assuming your number is right, I'd only save less than 3% on gas. Roughly $500 over 15 years. A Chevy Cruze diesel averages $5000 (!!) more expensive than a top of the line LTZ gasoline version of the same car. So there is just no payback at all.

    18. Re:Predestiny? by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 2

      Not really. It takes the engine at least 5 minutes and usually 10-15 to get up to temperature where the SCRs work effectively. The SCRs also do not react quickly to changing load. Average trip lengths are likely in the 10-20 minute range.

      To make a diesel efficient, your best bet would be as a range-extender engine in a plug-in hybrid, where the engine can run at peak efficiency for a longer period of time... But this is still less effective than using cng/lng for the same purpose.

    19. Re:Predestiny? by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

      But diesels can meet emission standards honestly if auto makers include a urea tank. They just fear consumer reaction to having another consumable fluid (that needs to be refilled every 9 thousand miles, or so) and don't want to do the heavy lifting of consumer education

      Since the urea consumption is proportionate to fuel consumption (about 1:100), the easy solution is to fill both at the pump. I mean, either use a nozzle that will dispense both together or a special filler nozzle. That way the consumer simply dispenses "clean diesel" into their car and everything's taken care of.

      No need to remember to fill another tank or anything - you just fill up like you normally do.

    20. Re:Predestiny? by rapiddescent · · Score: 2

      That's quite a difference to where I live (Scotland). Here, car dealerships often have no, or very few petrol (gas) engined versions of the new family sized cars for sale and pretty much all are diesel.

      Price per litre of petrol (95RON) is within 3% of a gallon of diesel. Most diesel for sale here includes 5-10% biodiesel.

      My own Subaru XV with a 2.0l turbo boxer diesel engine averages 42mpg and can get towards 60mpg on a motorway (highway) drive. It has the same torque as the famous STi 2.0ltr boxer petrol engine but about half the power. There is a slight downside in that Diesel freezes at only -15'C, although some gas stations include addtive to stop that happening.

    21. Re:Predestiny? by jabuzz · · Score: 2

      You think diesel is dirtier than petroleum spirit because you are focusing on the NOx and nothing else. You are for example ignoring all the un-burnt carcinogenic hydrocarbons in the exhaust of the petroleum spirit engine that are absent from the diesel engine. You are also not considering the reduced CO2 emissions from the diesel compared to the petroleum spirit engine. You are also not considering the half life of the NOx in the equation; that is NOx does not stick around while CO2 and the un-burnt carcinogenic hydrocarbons do.

      Is diesel cleaner? Hard to tell in my view probably if you step back and look at the full picture. Certainly the idea it is dirtier is not the simple case you are making out.

    22. Re:Predestiny? by tempmpi · · Score: 1

      The SCR System works. The issue is that they did not want to include either a much bigger tank or make it user refillable. The refill is $100 not because of the urea ($10-20), but because some serious disassembly is required to refill the small tank. They cheated to make the tank filling last longer by not using enough urea unless running on a testbench. Consumers would not accept a $100 refill and a visit to the shop every 3k miles. SCR is fine, you just need to use enough urea and make it easy to refill it.

      --
      Jan
    23. Re:Predestiny? by tempmpi · · Score: 1

      I would think that they should also change the tank, install something to allow user refilling or at least make refills free. Because if you use reflash the ECU to use more urea, it will work, but the urea/adblue/def tank will be empty much sooner than initially promised.

      --
      Jan
    24. Re:Predestiny? by tempmpi · · Score: 1

      cng/lng still has the issue with big tanks required. Hybrid+Diesel sounds like a good idea. If you use a small diesel engine and run it mostly at peak power and get additional power for acceleration from the electric motor it will also reach high enough temperatures much quicker.

      --
      Jan
    25. Re:Predestiny? by Discgolferusa · · Score: 1

      Honestly what seems stupid is that our government currently pays farmers to NOT farm almost 4 million acres each year (that doesn't include the almost 600,000 acres that get denied). Removing this subsidy (which at least in iowa, is mostly abused by non-farmers anyway especially since the top 2 recipients of this subsidy are also some of the richest people in the state), would add plenty of usable acres to produce viable biofuel crops. Also, realize that the VAST majority of crops in the US aren't grown for human consumption. 90% of all soybeans, 80% of corn, and 70% of all grains are grown for livestock feed. Luckily, the mash byproduct of producing ethanol is sold as feed anyway, so adding biofuel processing as a middle step gives us additional benefit from the crops we currently grow.

    26. Re:Predestiny? by Thelasko · · Score: 1

      They just fear consumer reaction to having another consumable fluid (that needs to be refilled every 9 thousand miles, or so) and don't want to do the heavy lifting of consumer education.

      Typically, a DEF tank needs to be refilled every time the fuel tank is filled. Volkswagen cheated to get to that 9k mile interval.

      When DEF was first introduced, there was a concern that the infrastructure wasn't available to refill the tanks. Manufacturers were trying to avoid using DEF, or extending fill intervals as long as possible to prevent issues if DEF wasn't available.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    27. Re:Predestiny? by marciot · · Score: 1

      But diesels can meet emission standards honestly if auto makers include a urea tank. They just fear consumer reaction to having another consumable fluid (that needs to be refilled every 9 thousand miles, or so) .

      If auto makers were more like NASA, they would realize that the car already has a totally free and renewable supply of urea that could be tapped to solve this problem, as well as having the fortunate side of effect of ensuring a much longer uninterrupted driving range for the vehicle's operator.

    28. Re:Predestiny? by bobbied · · Score: 1

      Nothing is simple, especially where one is discussing environmental impact caused by transportation.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    29. Re:Predestiny? by calque · · Score: 1

      That's quite a difference to where I live (Scotland). Here, car dealerships often have no, or very few petrol (gas) engined versions of the new family sized cars for sale and pretty much all are diesel.

      Price per litre of petrol (95RON) is within 3% of a gallon of diesel.

      You might think that the difference between gas and diesel in the US is because the US taxes diesel more than gas. However, I just looked it up, and diesel is only taxed about 2% more than gas in my state. So that doesn't explain why diesel is expensive.

    30. Re:Predestiny? by kammermusik · · Score: 1

      What about the urea condensation deposits (biuret/ammeline/ammelide/cyanuric acid) deposits? Is the inherent problem of the catalyst monolith clogging up fixed?

  2. No, emission standard will not get better by bobbied · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Of course, emission TESTING standards might get improved in ways that can catch cheaters faster...

    --
    "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    1. Re:No, emission standard will not get better by Thelasko · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Of course, emission TESTING standards might get improved in ways that can catch cheaters faster...

      Absolutely! The fact that an automaker cheated says the standards are strict. The fact they got a way with it as long as they did says the system lacks proper verification.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
  3. It will probably tighten up standards... by Irate+Engineer · · Score: 3, Funny

    It will probably tighten up standards so tight that bicyclists will have to have an emissions probe stuck up their backside annually to see if they are contributing to global warming.

    May want to skip the beans for dinner for a while...

    --

    Left MS Windows for Linux Mint and never looked back!

    Vote for Bernie in 2016!

    1. Re:It will probably tighten up standards... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It will probably tighten up standards so tight that bicyclists will have to have an emissions probe stuck up their backside annually to see if they are contributing to global warming.

      May want to skip the beans for dinner for a while...

      You joke now...

    2. Re:It will probably tighten up standards... by MerlynEmrys67 · · Score: 1

      Quit handing out advise... Someone will take it

      --
      I have mod points and I am not afraid to use them
    3. Re:It will probably tighten up standards... by mspohr · · Score: 2

      Actually, that's a good idea... but it should be for the cows. They produce a lot of methane and contribute as much to global warming as all transportation fuels.
      Now that WHO has determined that meat is bad for you it might be a good time to ban cows.
      www.cowspiracy.com

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    4. Re:It will probably tighten up standards... by sconeu · · Score: 2

      Where's the "MOOO" guy when he'd actually be on-topic?

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
    5. Re:It will probably tighten up standards... by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      You could make a solid and scientific case that emissions from humans (and indeed, all animals) are carbon neutral (ditto every other gas).
      You can't produce more of any of these gasses than you consume the materials for in the food you eat. Your CO2 output in mass can never be more than 3 times the mass of the food you ate (the other 2X is the oxygen part).
      In reality it's far less than that - a big chunk of that carbon is not emitted at all, but instead used to build the proteins for new cells in your body - those only get turned back into CO2 after you die (and presumably cannot be prosecuted). Of course that too, cannot exceed what you ate.

      Since the carbon you're adding was removed by plants to become your food just a short while previously - the effect is a nett-zero change in CO2 levels. Ditto for methane and water vapour (you can't breath out more water than you've drunk).

      So no, we probably won't ever see regulations against human emissions - that's a strawman the deniers made up. If anybody proposed it, unlike regulations against fossil fuels - no scientist would support them because they would be... erm... completely idiotic.
      The amazing thing is that such an idiotic idea nevertheless became a strawman that, based on slashdot, a helluva lot of people (who also consider themselves "smart") seriously believe...

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
  4. gas efficiency not affacted. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    They will go for relaxing NOx requirements. A lower gas efficiency is something consumers could sue for.

  5. I'd wager.... by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    That they'll do some random tests of all makes and manufacturers, and discover a few other cheaters.

    To be honest, VW stock could be a fortune maker if you buy it when it's on a drop due to threats of fines, and then one or two other makers are caught cheating on emissions. VW stock will bounce back up.

  6. Never Ban a Technology by Thelasko · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Once you ban a technology, you are also banning any development on it. It may have some undesirable effects now. Ban those effects. If the technology is worthwhile, someone will figure out a way to solve the problems.

    Also, just because there is one bad egg doesn't mean an entire technology is bad.

    --
    One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    1. Re:Never Ban a Technology by TWX · · Score: 1

      That's not really true for automakers. Self-driving cars are not permitted but automakers are developing them. Car companies are able to get exceptions for manufacturing and testing purposes all of the time when they want to drive on public roads, and they have miles and miles and miles of test track on which to run unlicensed vehicles. Plus they test components and systems outside of vehicle chassis too.

      If your argument was true then there would be no auto racing as basically none of those cars are street legal.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    2. Re:Never Ban a Technology by evilviper · · Score: 1

      Once you ban a technology, you are also banning any development on it.

      Even if diesel cars are banned, diesel engines will certainly remain extensively in-use. Semi trucks, stationary electrical generators, train locomotives, massive container ships, etc.

      --
      Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
    3. Re:Never Ban a Technology by khallow · · Score: 1

      Self-driving cars are not permitted

      Actually, they are. They just aren't permitted to drive on public roads except in certain controlled circumstances. If you want to build some private roads and run your self-driving car, you can.

    4. Re:Never Ban a Technology by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Which are all very different from those found in tiny passenger cars. It's trivial to make a very large diesel engine meet emission standards.

    5. Re:Never Ban a Technology by Thelasko · · Score: 2

      Which are all very different from those found in tiny passenger cars. It's trivial to make a very large diesel engine meet emission standards.

      As a diesel emissions engineer, I cannot emphasize enough how incorrect this statement is. All diesel engines function on the same principles. Diesel emissions regulations are the most strict for small engines. The EPA assumes that smaller engines (car and truck) are less expensive to develop than large engines. Medium and large engine (locomotive and ship) regulations lag behind the small engines by a few years so they can benefit from the work already done by the small engine manufacturers.

      Right now it appears all types of diesel engines will eventually end up with similar engine technology (EGR+SCR). There might be some slight differences in execution due to the duty cycle differences. For example, a ship at sea has a very different duty cycle than a semi in traffic.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    6. Re:Never Ban a Technology by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      May I ask you how it scales? Do emissions scale linearly with engine size, consumption, power, torque?

      There's a sweet spot in every such process, but what is it? Is the relationship truly linear, or does it have a peak at a certain point of one of the above specifications? Because while I agree that trucks are a dirty dirty thing I was also under the impression that they generate less emissions per (insert one of the units above that make them so valuable for road haulage).

  7. Vehicles WILL be fixed by flightmaker · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Over here in the UK for example, every vehicle has to have an MOT certificate to be used on the road. No certificate, no go. ANPRS cameras check that passing vehicles have certificates and insurance.

    Part of the MOT certificate is the emissions test. There will most likely be a requirement that VW diesels have to have their ECU firmware updated before they can pass the emissions test.

    That's what I reckon will happen.

    1. Re:Vehicles WILL be fixed by TWX · · Score: 1

      Yep. A lot of blustering VW owners will suddenly change their tune when they go in to renew their tags or else receive mail that tells them that the car will not be registerable past a certain date...

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    2. Re:Vehicles WILL be fixed by Spudboy2003 · · Score: 1

      Fortunately I live in Texas where we don't care about the environment. Still not sure what I'm going to do about my 2014 Passat.

  8. Doesn't look like it by mugurel · · Score: 1

    Not sure whether the timing of this article is a coincidence, but it seems that European has voted today that emissions standards should get more lax: http://www.theguardian.com/env...

    1. Re:Doesn't look like it by dkatana · · Score: 1

      Shit happens!

  9. TDI fanbois by Tailhook · · Score: 2

    We're now over 30 minutes into an automotive related story and so far not one TDI neckbeard has chimed in about getting 69 mpg while towing a boat uphill.

    Wonderful. I don't know if the scandal will ever improve anything with regard to emission standards, but I am certain the Internet has already been improved.

    --
    Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
  10. Refuse to license by Luthair · · Score: 1

    If owners refuse to fix their cars governments can easily refuse to license them for the road.

    1. Re:Refuse to license by silas_moeckel · · Score: 1

      Owners should not be fixing their cars rather it should be VW and not just some firmware flash but a hardware upgrade to keep its performance and mileage the same or pay for the mileage difference. That sounds like replacing the CAT and adding urea (and paying for that in perpetuity) to the system but regardless of how they do it they need to do it and maintain it.

      --
      No sir I dont like it.
    2. Re:Refuse to license by zlives · · Score: 3, Insightful

      actually its a claim for fraud and owners should return the cars and get their money back.

    3. Re:Refuse to license by Luthair · · Score: 1

      The original topic was about owners refusing to take VW's fix.

      Obviously if it affects performance they could sue VW, that will happen anyway as either way this will affect resale values.

    4. Re:Refuse to license by willy_me · · Score: 2

      or VW could offer an alternative. A new firmware and X dollars refunded to compensate for lost milage / reduced resale value. If they offered enough then people would accept the deal and problem solved. It will cost VW a significant amount of money but would save them in the long run.

      Many VW owners would likely see it as a net-gain. Especially those who, after getting the new firmware and compensation check, revert back to the more efficient firmware.

    5. Re:Refuse to license by dkatana · · Score: 1

      I'm sure some lawyers are already working on that!

  11. Yep by rsilvergun · · Score: 2

    and that's why everyone in the Auto industry is shitting themselves right now. They're going to actually be regulated for real for the first time in ages (maybe forever). Seems like every other week another batch of cars are discovered cheating.

    --
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    1. Re:Yep by khallow · · Score: 1

      They're going to actually be regulated for real for the first time in ages

      You can't cheat, if there's no regulation. And if the regulation weren't pretty damn harsh, it wouldn't be worth their while to cheat. It's sad how often a slight change in regulation or the enforcement of regulation is heralded as the magical transition from no regulation to regulation. Needless to say, I take such exaggerated rhetoric as a sure sign that the writer is completely ignorant of the topic and has nothing worthwhile to say about it.

    2. Re:Yep by calque · · Score: 1

      They're going to actually be regulated for real for the first time in ages

      You can't cheat, if there's no regulation. And if the regulation weren't pretty damn harsh, it wouldn't be worth their while to cheat. It's sad how often a slight change in regulation or the enforcement of regulation is heralded as the magical transition from no regulation to regulation. Needless to say, I take such exaggerated rhetoric as a sure sign that the writer is completely ignorant of the topic and has nothing worthwhile to say about it.

      I don't think that it is reasonable to divorce your definition of regulation from enforcement. Zero enforcement can't be seen as other than zero regulation. Going from zero enforcement to some enforcement is exactly what "regulated for real" obviously means. It is entirely reasonable to see that as a transition from no regulation to regulation.

    3. Re:Yep by khallow · · Score: 1

      Sorry, I wrote the above. I don't know why I wasn't considered as logged in since I didn't have to fill out a captcha to post.

  12. Re:tbh by TWX · · Score: 2

    It points out that some drivers could refuse to have their cars "fixed" out of fear that the diesel engine will lose gas efficiency and power output.

    Tbh that is what I would do. It's almost guaranteed that the fix will lose gas efficiency and power output. And then I would never buy another VW again.

    And, if you didn't get it fixed, you'd go to renew your tags through your motor vehicle department only to find that your car is ineligible to be registered.

    --
    Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
  13. Re:tbh by TWX · · Score: 1

    I doubt it. I expect that emissions and inspections will scrutinize these cars more to confirm that they're conforming, not less. They may even issue software updates to their OBD-II/CANBUS emissions test controllers to check the veracity of the software in the car's computer. Then again, if there's still any question there's always a tailpipe test on a dyno.

    --
    Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
  14. Re:more SCR by jerryjnormandin · · Score: 1

    probably a 3 element CAT. platinum/palladium/rhodium. SCR technology is out there on 2.0 TDIs and failing too.

  15. Re:tbh by RandomFactor · · Score: 1

    I have a vehicle ('95, in Georgia) that requires an annual dyno test.

    Finding a working inspection station for these is getting harder every year. I can't imaging telling a pack of people with recent cars to go find them. ('96 and later models don't have to do the dyno test here so they are getting pretty rare...)

    --
    --- Mercutio was right.
  16. Re:Screw emissions, i don't want my car failing MO by RandomFactor · · Score: 1

    Damn I miss 100 watt bulbs everywhere :-)

    LEDs work well enough though. Just a few CFLs left waiting to die now (or me to get pissed enough to help them along...)

    --
    --- Mercutio was right.
  17. Re:tbh by TWX · · Score: 2

    Only CARB states may requires testing, but the VINs of the affected vehicles can simply be submitted to states' motor vehicle departments, and given the nature of Federal highway funding to the states, plus it actually being against Federal law to tamper with the emissions controls of a vehicle, it would not be difficult to compel states MVDs to deny registration of affected vehicles without manufacturer-submitted proof that the manufacturer-created tampering was not corrected.

    These Federal laws are specifically on the books for cases of fraud for profit. The EPA isn't going to go after some private owner taking the catalytic converters of of their '77 Monte Carlo or removing the smog pump from their '76 Mustang or blocking the EGR crossover and removing the charcoal canister from their '79 Magnum, they're going to go after the people that make a business of removing the emissions controls on relatively modern vehicles in quantity or violate the law from the point of original manufacture. This predominately means dealerships and manufacturers.

    --
    Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
  18. Re: tbh by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

    The engines are optimized for (at least a modicum) of emissions already. If you told an aftermarket tuner to completely ignore NOx (and possibly particulates, although the DPF would still catch them), he could substantially increase horsepower (think 25% or more).

    Also, tuning a diesel does not tend to reduce MPG much, because you are actually using the extra power only occasionally. The rest of the time it uses only the same amount of fuel as it did before.

    --

    "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

  19. Re:dumb ass by PPH · · Score: 1

    They don't want their fucking car's polluting.

    TFA states that some people may try to refuse the fix if it affects performance. So perhaps they don't care so much.

    Unlike the cock-suckers who buy old ass cars to get around emissions checks.

    When its all over, VW might have to buy back the cars from people who won't accept the performance hit. The market for pre-smog muscle cars is heating up and the people with refunds in hand might just opt out of the whole emissions rat race for a nice 454 V8.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  20. Re:dumb ass by triffid_98 · · Score: 1

    They don't want their fucking car's polluting. Unlike the cock-suckers who buy old ass cars to get around emissions checks.

    Yes, because tons of people commute in 40+ year old cars with laughable MPG, all to get around your precious precious smog laws.

  21. biofuels by Firethorn · · Score: 1

    Actually it's the primary debate for me. It makes zero sense (and cents) to go out and actively *grow* motor fuels by farming plants to me.

    Why not? It's not like we don't grow a lot of other things - food, lumber, medicine, etc...

    Now, where you have a point is on the 'cents'. Current technologies are just not economical, but figuring out this stuff is still 'good' because it puts a hard limit on the price for fossil fuels - at some point biofuels are cheaper than fossil.

    Matter of fact, the last peak in oil prices was flirting with that price range.

    I'll note that 'biofuels cheaper than fossil' is very much not using corn based ethanol. You need crops that are much more scaleable.

    --
    I don't read AC A human right
    1. Re:biofuels by bobbied · · Score: 1

      Actually it's the primary debate for me. It makes zero sense (and cents) to go out and actively *grow* motor fuels by farming plants to me.

      Why not? It's not like we don't grow a lot of other things - food, lumber, medicine, etc...

      Food, building materials and drugs from growing things is just a little bit different than growing fuel. Lumber grows on trees and we eat plants, these uses for growing plants is cost effective and necessary. But fuel? We have other sources of fuel yet you want to grow it?

      Well ask yourself WHY? Why do you think we should grow fuel?

      If your answer is that you want to protect the environment or reduce CO2 emissions, then it's not helping your cause, at all. It doesn't help and it costs a LOT of money. It's stupid to grow fuel if your concern is the environment.

      Now if you are not using the environmentalists argument to justify growing fuel, we can talk. I've not yet heard a reasonable argument for this, but that doesn't mean one doesn't exist.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    2. Re:biofuels by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      We have other sources of fuel yet you want to grow it?

      You're coming dangerously close to setting up a straw man here. Up here in Alaska, and even down south in the upper parts of the lower 48, a lot of people heat their homes with wood. That's using a biofuel. It's substantially cheaper than heating by oil, if you have the equipment for it, though it does require more user effort.

      Sure, we have other sources of fuel. But said fuel causes environmental damage and isn't free to extract either.

      Well ask yourself WHY? Why do you think we should grow fuel?

      You didn't actually read my post, did you? Hint: "because it puts a hard limit on the price for fossil fuels"

      If your answer is that you want to protect the environment or reduce CO2 emissions, then it's not helping your cause, at all. It doesn't help and it costs a LOT of money. It's stupid to grow fuel if your concern is the environment.

      Protect the environment - Something of a mixed bag; most bio-fuels still pollute by generating things like NOx compounds, but they also tend to be naturally sulfur-free.
      Reduce CO2 emissions: Vehicle traffic is the biggest source of CO2 after coal power. So reducing addition of CO2 will help.
      It costs a LOT of money: There's also the problem that in today's subsidized environment(though better than the past) it's sometimes an energy negative energy - more than a gallon of fossil fuel is 'burned' to produce a gallon of bio-fuel. However, I believe that even corn ethanol is up to about 7:1 today. That being said, another indicator that you didn't actually read my post. Or do you believe that "Current technologies are just not economical" means something other than "it's currently too expensive"?

      Now if you are not using the environmentalists argument to justify growing fuel, we can talk. I've not yet heard a reasonable argument for this, but that doesn't mean one doesn't exist.

      Going back to my post: "Current technologies are just not economical, but figuring out this stuff is still 'good' because it puts a hard limit on the price for fossil fuels - at some point biofuels are cheaper than fossil."

      Basically, at some point biofuels will be cheaper than fossil. We keep drilling deeper and deeper for oil, not to mention that we've graduated to squeezing and melting it out of crushed rock (shale oil and oil sands). These techniques are amazingly more expensive than the old wells, especially in energy cost per barrel extracted. The latter methods are even questionable - they're burning so much natural gas to extract the oil in some cases that you'd get more miles burning it in cars adapted for NG.

      Then I identify that during their last peak, fossil fuels were 'flirting' with the price range at which biofuels can be economically produced. What I mean by this is that they got very close (within ~10%) of what biofuels could be economically produced and sold for in a theoretically fully developed industry, where economy of scale has beaten prices down to close to their natural minimums. IE rather than being $20/gallon, it's $4/gallon. The numbers are all theoretical, so there's a variance in the range depending upon various presuppositions.

      Note that I specifically decried the viability of ethanol from corn. Personally, I'm more for algae farms built in deserts that are fairly close to the ocean so it can be a source of water.

      Finally, you'd most likely see a peak and a fall, IE "peak oil", where oil is more expensive than the minimum price for biofuels, but less expensive than boutique production. At that point you'd be seeing massive investment into biofuels, because profit CAN be made if it can be produced cheaply enough, IE with enough economy of scale. As biofuels start coming onto the market in significant, economically competitive amounts, this will have the effect of diminishing the price of fossil fuels. Drilling new wells and

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    3. Re:biofuels by bobbied · · Score: 1

      No, I'm not surprised. However, opinions differ on this end.

      Directly burning wood for heat aside....

      Long term you may be correct. As Oil becomes more and more scarce and the "easy" stuff to recover is used up, oil will become more expensive. Eventually, this will make biofuels more attractive, all other things being equal. But there are things that may drive the "long" part of the "long term" out to be much longer than you expect.

      First, history shows that as the price of oil increases, the amount of economically recoverable oil grows rather quickly. As oil approached $100/bbl. recently, the amount of proven (economically recoverable) oil grew and literally made the USA one of the largest holders of fossil fuel reserves in the world. At $100/bbl. it made sense to spend the money to frack and use expensive extraction technologies where this wasn't true at $50/bbl. There is a bit of lag in the production rate so we see spikes in oil prices as demand outstrips production, but this is short term. Much of the sharp rise in motor fuel prices we recently saw where driven by supply side limits, and we briefly may have ended up close to parity with Bio-Fuels on cost, but that would have been short term, and turned out to really be an artificial supply problem caused by OPEC.

      Second, bio fuel production costs are directly linked to energy prices. They take fuel/energy to produce (fertilizer, cultivation, harvesting, converting into fuel) especially when you have to convert it into motor fuels like diesel or ethanol. So as overall fuel/energy prices rise, bio-fuels also cost more to produce. Yes, I guess there is a point where the two costs end up on par, but I have no doubt that if you took the government incentives out of the bio-fuel markets it would be a lot higher than you imagine and certainly a lot higher than we've actually seen so far.

      Third, you do realize that we highly subsidize this industry in a number of ways. Government mandates minimum Ethanol content of gasoline in many areas and requires that it be sold. They provide tax incentives and credits for producers and users of Biofuels. It's really hard to tell how much they cost to produce in the real world because government activity is artificially driving prices. I think this is driving the cost of bio-fuels lower, meaning that the break even point naturally is going to be well beyond $100/Bbl. oil we've already seen if the government took it's hands off like it should.

      Fourth, why would we waste food production capacity on this? As the world's population grows at an alarming rate, we are going to struggle more and more to produce food enough for all. The amount of land suitable for this production is limited, as is our ability to obtain the resources (fertilizer, water, sunlight) necessary to make the right kinds of plants grow. We are not running at full capacity in food production, but if we choose to convert more and more of our capacity over to bio-fuel production, we eventually will. Also, because we are now using "food" plants for bio-fuel production, we drive up the price of the food. It may not matter to you, but I can assure you it matters to the poorer folks who depend on these crops we insist on using for bio-fuels. Surely you see how this rush to farm for bio-fuels makes food more expensive, so there are additional indirect costs to consider.

      So, I don't think we disagree in principle here, but in the effective time line. "Long" term unsubsidized viability of bio-fuels has got to be well beyond the future point where oil exceeds $150/bbl. (all prices adjusted for inflation in the future) and I think this puts "long" in the realm of a couple of decades sans any big spikes in demand or available supplies. 20 years is a long time for technology to develop....

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    4. Re:biofuels by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      But there are things that may drive the "long" part of the "long term" out to be much longer than you expect.

      Note that I didn't put any real time-lines in, other than 'long term'. And yes, I'm very well aware that any quotation of 'estimated reserves' has hidden in it a '@$X per barrel' disclaimer, and if you raise X, the 'economically recoverable' amount goes up.

      Long term, to me, I'm thinking that once oil prices exceed the theoretical minimum biofuel production cost, it'll still be 20-25 years before fossil oil becomes a 'niche' product. We've been building fossil fuel infrastructure for a long, long time.

      At $100/bbl. it made sense to spend the money to frack and use expensive extraction technologies where this wasn't true at $50/bbl.

      You do realize that you're explaining something to me that I had in the post you're responding to, right? Except I was thinking more about the literally mile deep wells they've drilled in the Bakken fields up in North Dakota, and that's not including that they go horizontal as well. As well as oil sands(Canada) and shales.

      There is a bit of lag in the production rate so we see spikes in oil prices as demand outstrips production, but this is short term. Much of the sharp rise in motor fuel prices we recently saw where driven by supply side limits, and we briefly may have ended up close to parity with Bio-Fuels on cost, but that would have been short term, and turned out to really be an artificial supply problem caused by OPEC.

      *shrug*, again, you're explaining a concept that I explained in my post - except what happened involved new sources of fossil fuels rather than biofuel. Same deal. Prices go up due to supply side shortage, and stay up until suppliers, on a construction spree, manage to produce enough supply to drop the prices again. I'm not arguing against what happened. It's just that, as time goes on, more supplies are going to dry up, we'll drill more wells, again, but at some point the biofuels will become competitive.

      Second, bio fuel production costs are directly linked to energy prices. They take fuel/energy to produce (fertilizer, cultivation, harvesting, converting into fuel) especially when you have to convert it into motor fuels like diesel or ethanol.

      Right now they use fossil fuels and such for this because it's the cheapest. As prices go up you'd see them shift into sustainable energy sources. Sort of like how manufacturers of solar panels used utility power that included coal, though today a lot of them have their own solar panels on the roof, that displacing most, if not all, of the coal.

      So as overall fuel/energy prices rise, bio-fuels also cost more to produce. Yes, I guess there is a point where the two costs end up on par, but I have no doubt that if you took the government incentives out of the bio-fuel markets it would be a lot higher than you imagine and certainly a lot higher than we've actually seen so far.

      The $20/gallon I quoted earlier is the 'current' price without subsidization. So isn't the theoretical $4/gallon they estimate they can get it down to.

      as for "you do realize" again - you need to filter your talking points through my posts a bit better. I already stated in my previous post "There's also the problem that in today's subsidized environment"

      Fourth, why would we waste food production capacity on this?

      Ahem: "Note that I specifically decried the viability of ethanol from corn. Personally, I'm more for algae farms built in deserts that are fairly close to the ocean so it can be a source of water."

      The spots that I proposed to use for biofuel production are currently mostly empty of plant life, and are very much not being used for food production. There are also proposals for deep-sea algae farms.

      I think this puts "long" in the realm of a couple of de

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
  22. VW tdi Diesel == EOL by ElitistWhiner · · Score: 1

    Diesel is EOL thanks to VW executive decision that it was too costly to make diesel ' Clean'.

    Hydrogen== emergent technology. Hydrogen for the foreseeable future plays increasingly in powering the planet, space and our climate sustainability programs.

  23. Re:tbh by gl4ss · · Score: 2

    they'll fix it so that you don't lose power / efficiency.

    but here is the kicker to that: some of them need new physical parts. and that is in their fix plan. which is why they're offering deep discounts to owners of some cars in order to buy a new car.. because the fix is so expensive(1.6 tdi's in germany for example afaik).

    basically they will have to bring the engines up to the spec of the newer engine model and that needs swapping out parts.. it's not just a firmware fix.

    --
    world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
  24. Improve emissions standards? by Tijaska · · Score: 1

    It's easy to improve emissions standards. Improving actual performance is the hard part. Hence the VW work-around. The regulators can specify any standard they like, someone with develop a software hack that shows them what they want to see.

  25. Self-driving cars aren't actually banned... by Firethorn · · Score: 1

    Self-driving cars are not permitted but automakers are developing them.

    This isn't a ban though. As you say, car companies, even non-car companies like google, are able to get exceptions for testing on public roads.

    It's better to say that self-driving cars aren't banned, it's just that the current regulatory system for cars is such that a self-driving car isn't useful right now, because the rules don't account for a computer controlling the vehicle, thus the vehicle still requires an operator capable of taking over again at a moment's notice.

    They can make and operate said cars on closed tracks/private property as much as they like, even if they lack all ability for user control(IE no wheels, gas pedal, brake pedal, etc...), outside of something along the lines of an 'emergency stop' button.

    That being said, with the permits and such, they're prodding lawmakers and other regulatory bodies to allow them when they have a sufficiently functional system developed. Hell, technology from self-driving development is finding it's way into new vehicles left and right - lane following, automatic collision avoidance, etc...

    --
    I don't read AC A human right
  26. Re: fear the diesel engine will lose gas efficienc by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

    I get either zero or infinite miles per gallon of gasoline in my TDI. Zero if I pour it in the fuel tank, attempt to drive on it and thereby quickly destroy the engine. Infinite if I get the gallon of gasoline in a jerry can and drive it around; the amount of gasoline never changes.

    If by gasoline you mean petrol, then no, you won't destroy the engine. You may need new engine accessories (pipes, pumps, filters, etc) but the engine itself will be all good. A woman I dated once filled up her Golf TDi with petrol. Dealership sorted the car out in a day.

    --
    I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
  27. Not in the EU by mythix · · Score: 1

    The European commision voted for new tests this week, and they are just marginally better than the current ones.

    Heavy lobbies from Germany, France and the UK are holding us back.

  28. Europe is doing exactly the opposite! by thegarbz · · Score: 1

    Only in today's issue there's talk of Europe pushing back and relaxing the new Emissions guidelines.

    So really wishful thinking on part of the author. But the world does not work like that.

  29. The genesis of the Order of the Engineer by RogueWarrior65 · · Score: 1

    These fools in government really should read up on the origins of the Order of the Engineer and engineers should really grow the balls needed to tell bureaucrats to go pound sand.

  30. Re:tbh by rwise2112 · · Score: 1

    And, if you didn't get it fixed, you'd go to renew your tags through your motor vehicle department only to find that your car is ineligible to be registered.

    The government here in Ontario has already stated that they will require proof that the fix was applied before these cars can be re-licensed. I can only imagine many provinces and states will do the same.

    --

    "For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert"
  31. Smog check stations... by Kazoo+the+Clown · · Score: 1

    Expect smog check stations to be checking the version number of the software on the car via the OBD-II port and fail it if it's not been patched...

  32. Re:tbh by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

    The CARB states include 38% of the US population. So the impact is substantial even if the remaining 62% are not covered. The CARB standards are going national starting with the 2016 model year, though I don't believe that includes a mandate for testing.

  33. Re:tbh by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

    It's true that if you want the specific things on your list, the choices in the US are limited. Manual transmissions are not popular here, so many models are not offered with them. Station wagons are out of fashion, both because of consumer preference and because fuel mileage standards are biased in favor of crossovers rather than station wagons.

    Diesel cars have also never been popular in the US. In the early years there were prejudices against them because of smoky exhaust, poor availability of fuel (most drivers don't want to have to visit a truck stop to fuel their cars), and some ill-fated attempts by American car makers to market diesel cars, notably the Oldsmobile models. More recently, diesels have suffered because of the very strict EPA standards for diesel emissions (which impose tight limits on particulate and NOx, which are problem areas for diesel), which mean that many of the diesel cars sold elsewhere in the world cannot be imported into the US without substantial modification. Conversely, the EU put strict limits on CO2 emissions (where diesels do well) so their regulations were far more friendly to diesel, and the much higher fuel prices that prevail in Europe provided a stronger incentive to buy diesel cars.

    Another reason that some cars from other parts of the world are not available in the US is safety standards. Notably, the US has a much stronger requirement for bumper strength than other parts of the world, so nearly every car model from elsewhere in the world has to be modified to include more substantial bumpers. If a company does not see enough market potential for a car to justify making a special US version, the car doesn't get sold here.

    Finally, very small cars have been a hard sell in the US. Some companies do not choose to import their smallest models here. Notable examples include the VW Polo and the BMW 1-series, as well as all the Japanese "city cars".

    All that said, describing the US as an underdeveloped car market is an exaggeration. There are still plenty of choices, though perhaps not the ones you want. (Like you, I find the paucity of station wagons frustrating.) And the US is the second most successful market in the world for hybrid cars (in part because of economic incentives to buy them), trailing only Japan and far ahead of the EU.

  34. Re:dumb ass by triffid_98 · · Score: 1

    people with refunds in hand might just opt out of the whole emissions rat race for a nice 454 V8.

    Is there a large cross-section between people with mullets and VW diesels?

    Good luck with your 454 project, my dad got 280K out of his before it developed a rod knock. They aren't bad motors but (understandably) not terribly high revving or fuel efficient.