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The Humans Crashing Into Driverless Cars are Exposing a Key Flaw (bloomberg.com)
schwit1 sends in a story from Bloomberg pointing out that the rigid adherence to traffic laws and overcautious programming have caused self-driving cars to rack up a crash rate twice that of an average human driver. "This may sound like the right way to program a robot to drive a car, but good luck trying to merge onto a chaotic, jam-packed highway with traffic flying along well above the speed limit. It tends not to work out well. As the accidents have piled up — all minor scrape-ups for now — the arguments among programmers at places like Google and Carnegie Mellon University are heating up: Should they teach the cars how to commit infractions from time to time to stay out of trouble?" While the autonomous vehicles aren't at fault in these crashes, their relative unpredictability on the road are nonetheless leading to more accidents than expected.
I have always thought that for automated vehicles to be a reality, ALL traffic has to be automated.
It takes almost an A.I. to be able to adjust to the random nature of human driving.
- Don't do what I do, it's probably not healthy nor safe. -
I'm sure there will be AI defenders who will question the assertion about a crash rate "double" that of average humans. But it doesn't matter. The point is that human drivers are idiots and drive in all sorts of unpredictable ways. They also tend to hate other drivers who operate in demonstrably safer ways (e.g., allowing plenty of space in front of them, not accelerating wildly just to stop 100 feet ahead in stop-and-go traffic, not zooming past a slower lane in a merge situation, but instead attempting a "zipper merge" at the same speed as the slower lane, etc). Of course, a lot of the less safe human behaviors also tend to be the reason for traffic snarls in the first place, but you'll have a hard time convincing most drivers of that, since they want to drive as if they are on a racetrack and somehow think that weaving back and forth to get into that tiny gap you've left in front for safety is going to allow them to get home so much faster (even if it's only 2 seconds earlier).
I imagine the biggest problem with having AI cars obey traffic laws strictly is not the accidents -- rather that it's going to lead to human road rage, which often leads humans to be even more irrational and drive in even less safe ways. Thus, while AI cars are still a minority on the roads, I'm not sure it will lead to a net improvement in accident statistics -- just as a "slow driver" on a highway can block up traffic, cause other drivers to drive unsafely around them, and ultimately lead to the potential for more accidents, even if that slow driver thinks they are being "safe" by driving the speed limit or a little below.
Or the dummies who are speeding could just slow down and go the speed limit.
This is nothing more than a sophisticated from of "everybody else is doing it" argument that you get from small children. If the rules aren't working, the solution is to either enforce the rules better or to change the rules. Having everybody ignore the rules and not change them is the worst possible outcome. It creates a situation where things simply can't get better. Nobody can know the real effect of properly enforced rules so there's no data that can be used for improvement of the rules. What we need is better enforcement for human drivers. It's almost inexcusable that neither cars (nor trains) have automatic speed control systems that prevent exceeding the limit. Invariably somebody will point out the fantastical corner case where accelerating and swerving makes sense but those can be easily solved.
So...everyone? The issue here is that people tend to drive as fast or as slow as the road allows, normally it's the common law speed limit. Humans can usually adjust to this, robots with strict rules can't.
Which is a great theory, but the reality is that if the speed limit is set very low on a road for no apparent reason then a lot of drivers won't respect it, and unless you can and will enforce that limit strongly and consistently, that is unlikely to change. Putting the remaining drivers -- those who do want to be responsible and safe -- in a position where they have to choose between breaking the law and driving as safely as possible, is bad law-making.
If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
From TFA: "They’re usually hit from behind in slow-speed crashes".
If this is in fact the dominant accident mode, I would suggest that this is not such a big deal and will, over the long term, be self-correcting as the insurance rates for idiot non-automated drivers shoot up because they can't get it through their thick skulls not to tailgate other vehicles.
Which is a great theory, but the reality is that if the speed limit is set very low on a road for no apparent reason
Oh there is a reason, it just has nothing to do with safety.
So...everyone? The issue here is that people tend to drive as fast or as slow as the road allows, normally it's the common law speed limit. Humans can usually adjust to this, robots with strict rules can't.
That is incorrect. People tend to drive as fast or as slow as enforcement of the speed limit allows. If authorities start enforcing the speed limit, the speed driven will decrease. Since there is no real penalty to speeding, people speed.
Don't make self-driving cars shitty drivers just because everyone else is one.
I love how strictly obeying traffic laws is called "unpredictability".
If you think keeping up with the flow of traffic and/or occasionally driving in excess of the posted speed limit makes one a despicable person, I hate to imagine how you cope with everyday life surrounded by people you hate.
Which is a great theory, but the reality is that if the speed limit is set very low on a road for no apparent reason
Oh there is a reason, it just has nothing to do with safety.
Or there is a reason, it has to do with safety, or with optimising throughput, or some other valid concern, but that reason is not obvious to every dummy driver on the street. I don't trust every guy who owns a pair of pliers and a power drill to have a go at my dental care. So why would I assume that I know better than the experts which speed limits are optimal for a given set of goals?
Stephan
Oh there is a reason, it just has nothing to do with safety
Surely this article shows that the speed limit is indeed about safety. If you think that you actually driving at a safe speed and then run into a car that is travelling at the legal limit then obviously you were driving too fast to be able to avoid a hazard on the road. If you travelled slower then you would have more of a chance to see the car, correctly gauge it's speed, and then stop before you ran into it.
Not only is it not an infraction to drive in such a way as to save lives and prevent accidents, when you can save a life or prevent an accident, but it requires you to go against the suggested speed, or swerve into the left lane (even when the divider is solid) you are actually required to do so.
WHAT?!?
In >99% of such situations, the correct decision is to hit the brake, NOT the accelerator. Unless you're participating in a car chase and fleeing from terrorists as in some action movie, there is almost never a situation where slamming down the accelerator is the correct choice to prevent an accident.
In general, you are much more likely to cause a serious accident by doing this (since the combination of swerving and accelerating is much more likely to cause you to lose control and even roll or flip), not to mention running into other cars. By braking, the worst that can usually happen is you get a much less-serious crash into your rear from a car behind you that was following too close to isn't paying attention.
That is the entire point of cars having a maximum speed of several times the maximum suggested speed is because you are supposed to speed in many situations to save lives.
Good to know. I was wondering why my speedometer goes up to 140 mph or whatever. So, next time something weird happens in front of me while I'm going at 65mph on the highway, I'll slam on the accelerator, swerve left into oncoming traffic, and go 140mph to avoid the accident.
Are you freakin' kidding me? And this was modded up??
I'm training a new driver, and we have the same problem. She understands the rules of the road, but I spend a lot of time explaining to her where other driver's will expect her to behave differently than she expects based on those rules.
Agreed. Human drivers tend to have this sense of entitlement and exceptionalism so that they believe that they can break the law but anyone else who does it is a dangerous idiot. Automated cars are a new type of vehicle that these drivers have to negotiate. Expect a learning curve with a spike in accidents while drivers get used to it. I remember the same thing happening in Barcelona when they re-introduced trams. There was a sudden, dramatic spike in accidents, some of them fatal, while drivers learned what they could and couldn't "get away with." The answer is to give time for lawless drivers to learn about automated cars and adjust their law-breaking appropriately so that they don't get involved in as many accidents. And while we're at it, how about automated cars recording everything that happens around them that can be presented as evidence in court?
I read long ago about a race-car driver teaching urban driving. He taught students to 'go with the flow' rather than compete for a place -- he'd make eye contact with other drivers, slow slightly to make a bigger space for someone to change lanes, wave and point to indicate where he was going, and almost never either accelerate or brake suddenly -- tap the brakes before stepping on the pedal to flash the lights. And at the end of the class he challenged the students to drive cross-town in rush hour, and he did as well. He was sitting in his car at the finish line waiting when the first of them arrived. He said you can flow faster than you can compete in traffic.
I'd always found that idea worked and when I read his methods I started applying it very seriously.
I'm in California. I get the momentary double take from other drivers when I do something gracious like the above -- the look twice at my hand signal to see if I'm really waving "come on over" or pointing "I'm moving that way" rather than something dumb and offensive.
And then, invariably, there's a blink and a smile and they make the flow work.
Another example -- when I'm behind another car, and that car ahead of me is coming up behind a slow moving truck, I'll put on my turn signal to change lanes early. It signals the driver ahead of me that, duh, we BOTH are going to have to change lanes soon, you might as well do it rather than be stuck behind that truck as I come up on your left. That almost always gets the driver ahead to move left in plenty of time for us both to flow around the truck. Otherwise, the contentious/oblivious driver will run up behind the truck then dart left into the passing lane as I'm coming up on them, endangering everyone. People do take a clue.
A third example -- I hit my 4-way emergency flasher if I see trouble or congestion or stopped traffic ahead way early, before I start to slow down and signal which way I'm going if I need to change lanes. When I don't do that, there's usually a pack of fast drivers coming along who will just blaze into the congested area and scramble for place trying to get through.
With the slight early warning, the whole pack slows down and people sort themselves out to flow past the obstruction.
This all works because there are PEOPLE driving the other cars. And it really does work. I get places faster with less hassle and people I've never seen before smile and wave at me on the highway --- because the little kindnesses propagate.
Try to be nice to a Google car? Why bother, there's nobody home.
There isn't any situation I can think of where speeding up will end up saving lives
Getting out of the way. In most cases, a car can accelerate out of the way of a car faster than its brakes can overcome intertia. Even if it can't, I'd much rather an accident where I get T-boned in the trunk than in one of the doors.
nor is that why cars can go faster than posted speed limits
Well, a car that maxed out at 55mph would be laughable in other states where 65 and 75 are common. trying to decide upon a national speed limit would be ridiculous, as it doesn't account for population density or geography/topography. Sure, this argues well for having cars max out at 90, rather than 120 or 140 (higher in some of the high end / exotic models), but a car that maxed out at 75 would be more desirable than one that maxes out at 55, and then we end up with interstate commerce hell...
nor does anybody teach swerving into the left hand (on-coming) lane to avoid an accident.
This particular lesson was covered as follows: "do whatever the hell it takes to avoid an accident". If that includes swerving into the left lane? so be it. Here's a for-instance: residential area, two lane road, a driver isn't looking too closely while backing out of the driveway. Do you retain your lane, or swerve into the left lane to avoid hitting his car in the rear wheel well area? Same for hitting a deer, fallen tree, road construction, idiot texting instead of looking at the road, a situation where the lights aren't synchronized and thus the left side is clear and the person in front of you stopped short...
That's just beyond brain dead
No, assuming that we're only talking about driving in a straight line on a highway, as if it is the only possible scenario where driving skills come into play, is beyond brain dead.
"let me trade this rear end collision with a head on collision, all day long!".
I am certain that the GP wasn't referring to crossing the divider when there was oncoming traffic. To more fully phrase it with the included context, his/her statement was this: "At present, Google cars treat the divider line as sacrosanct, and will not cross it under any circumstances. However, there are edge cases when driving where the best way of avoiding an an accident is to cross the line. Humans know that avoiding an accident is more important than staying in the lane; most humans would look at another human sideways if an accident took place because the driver adhered to lane markers rather than self preservation. This is expected of humans, but not of Google cars."
It sounds more like a flaw with traffic laws.
In >99% of such situations, the correct decision is to hit the brake, NOT the accelerator.
Dear God, no. No, no, no. You're that guy that slams on his brake at the end of an on ramp because he can't process the situation quickly enough to know when it's appropriate and *preferred* to hit the damn gas pedal and merge at speed rather than stop in the middle of the lane and wait until that steady stream of traffic lets up. Here's a clue for you and zillion other ass hats out there...it's not letting up and your over cautious bull shit just put everyone behind you in a worse situation than they would have been if you were never born to begin with because then they would have just accelerated up to speed and merged in little a normal person rather than sitting in a line waiting to for someone to either slam into the back of them or at the very least greatly increasing their risk of getting into an accident when it's finally their turn and they have to come up to 70 mph from 0 mph in about 100 feet. Thanks.
If you're not paying attention to the driver in front of you, then you're distracted. If you''re not leaving enough room to stop if the driver in front of you brakes, then you're driving recklessly. Neither is to be condoned.
--- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
It's people who don't understand that simple rule that cause accidents
People who don't understand that the overtaking lane is also not an excuse for speeding nor does it have a requirement that you do 30km/h above the limit is also what causes accidents. In general idiots who think they own the road in every which way cause accidents.
I get that about once a week. Overtaking some speed limited truck takes about 10-15 seconds when I'm driving the limit. Some idiot will come up behind me at a stupid speed and start flashing his lights and honking the horn. They are just as bad as those people who block the lanes for no reason.