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The Science Behind the Paris Climate Accords (thebulletin.org)

Lasrick writes: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists offers a pretty thorough run-down of the pros and cons of the Paris climate accords. William Sweet examines not only the political machinations behind the agreement but much of what the agreement entails and how it got there after 21 years of COP meetings. "As for the tighter 1.5-degree standard, this is a complicated issue that the Paris accords fudge a bit. The difference between impacts expected from a 1.5-degree world and a 2-degree world are not trivial. The Greenland ice sheet, for example, is expected to melt in its entirely in the 2-degree scenario, while in a 1.5-degree world the odds of a complete melt are only 70 percent... But at the same time the scientific consensus is that it would be virtually impossible to meet the 1.5-degree goal because on top of the 0.8–0.9 degrees of warming that already has occurred, another half-degree is already in the pipeline, 'hidden away in the oceans,' as Schellnhuber put it." In an additional audio recording of a teleconference briefing given to the Bulletin's Science and Security Board and other leading scientists and policy makers, Sivan Kartha and Richard Somerville (both on the S & S Board) explain what was accomplished (and not accomplished).

118 comments

  1. On-line dating sites and the muppet women by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    "I suspect he means this current trend where no woman can take a self picture that's not from about 45 degrees above them so you can't see the triple chin as clearly and their eyes look twice their actual size because they're looking upward like they're on their knees giving you fellatio.

    OP, I'm less disturbed by the fact that the majority of them outweigh me by well over 100 lbs (while being about 6 inches to a foot shorter than I am to boot) than I am by the fact that women's profiles on dating sites all read like hostage demand lists for their vagina.

    Seriously, nearly EVERY profile lists how you must have this, must do that, must not do this or that ... while not taking even a single line to describe what they have to offer. Like the thought never once crossed their mind that perhaps ... they might not be an amazing catch and might actually have to put in effort."

    - http://www.givemegossip.com/fo... - Sir Phydeau

  2. "Atomic Scientists" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    Lol.

    Hasn't this rag been discredited enough already?

    These so-called "Atomic Scientists" don't actually do any "Atomic Science" (whatever the fuck that is), because they're staunchly anti-nuclear, so this would preclude any type of "Atomic Science".

    Captcha: NIMBY.

    1. Re:"Atomic Scientists" by Penguinisto · · Score: 2

      Before parent post gets modded to oblivion, it should be noted that the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (home of the 'Doomsday Clock' if I'm not mistaken), does tend to run a bit activist in its public statements. Now as to whether or not the science they print is sound/skewed/whatever, I'll leave to the reader.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    2. Re:"Atomic Scientists" by hey! · · Score: 1

      The Bulletin is a policy journal, not a technical journal. Always has been.

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      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    3. Re:"Atomic Scientists" by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This article is a good one, anyway. It's one of the best reports of what happened at the Paris accords. It talks about the different factions (the island nation coalition, the group of 77, etc), and discusses what negotiations went on, compromises made, and how it managed to come to something that looked like an agreement.

      It's worth a read if you're interested in what goes on at these conferences.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    4. Re:"Atomic Scientists" by sg_oneill · · Score: 1

      These so-called "Atomic Scientists" don't actually do any "Atomic Science" (whatever the fuck that is), because they're staunchly anti-nuclear, so this would preclude any type of "Atomic Science".

      No, they oppose atomic *weapons*, which is an eminently sensible position to take. They are not anti nuclear power, however, and in fact their stance is that Nuclear power is probably the best way forward in reducing greenhouse emissions.

      Their staff are mostly nuclear or related hard scientists with some policy experts. They are about as respectable as you get for a policy thinktank.

      --
      Excuse the Unicode crap in my posts. That's an apostrophe, and slashdot is busted.
  3. Yet more lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

    ...another half-degree is already in the pipeline, 'hidden away in the oceans,' as Schellnhuber put it.

    To the contrary.

    1. Re:Yet more lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The only thing clear about climate change is that every day we learn that we know less and less about the Climate.

      Climate Scientists are like ants on a tree trunk trying to infer the shape of the Forrest. All they know is what little they see.

    2. Re:Yet more lies by allcoolnameswheretak · · Score: 1

      The oceans are not only composed of the deepest "abyss".

    3. Re:Yet more lies by riverat1 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The article you cite is about the abyssal ocean below about 7,000 feet. There's a lot of water between 7,000 feet and the surface. As per usual simple analyses like yours are usually wrong.

    4. Re:Yet more lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "One more point, the media and the climate alarmists like to say that the reason atmospheric temperatures are not rising with the increase in carbon dioxide is that the extra heat is “hiding” in the deep ocean. It has to be the deep ocean because measurements of shallow ocean temperatures have not shown any excess warming. Certainly, as we have seen, most of the heat is going into the oceans. But, the temperature rise caused by that transfer is very small. Since heat only moves from a warmer object to a cooler object, the heat will never exit from the ocean until the atmospheric temperature drops. At that point we will want that heat. If indeed, carbon dioxide is causing more heat to be trapped in the atmosphere, the oceans are the perfect place for it to go."

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/21/the-holocene-thermal-optimum/

      It has been much warmer in the past (8-14kyear ago and much warmer 5 degrees 125kyear ago).

      The deep ocean hypothesis is excuse number 63 for why the temperature of the earth has not according to satellite measurements NOT increased in the past 18 years.
      They are manipulating the surface data to get a political result. They cool the old records to make a warming trend.
      Just search google for"GISS adjustments"
      The best USA temperature data the un-adjusted USCRN data has shown NO warming in the past 10 years.

    5. Re:Yet more lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Want lies?

      Here you go:

      NOAA often fails to consider all available data in its determinations and climate change reports to the public. A recent study by NOAA, published in the journal Science, made “adjustments” to historical temperature records and NOAA trumpeted the findings as refuting the nearly two-decade pause in global warming. The study’s authors claimed these adjustments were supposedly based on new data and new methodology. But the study failed to include satellite data.

      “We have little doubt that our lawsuit helped to pry these scandalous climate change report documents from the Obama administration.

      http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-sues-for-documents-withheld-from-congress-in-new-climate-data-scandal/

      THIS IS NOT HOW SCIENCE WORKS

    6. Re:Yet more lies by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      It has to be the deep ocean because measurements of shallow ocean temperatures have not shown any excess warming.

      What are you talking about? There has been lots of warming in the upper ocean. It is clearly shown at this NOAA page on ocean heat content.

      Since heat only moves from a warmer object to a cooler object, the heat will never exit from the ocean until the atmospheric temperature drops.

      Since over 90% of the heat energy from global warming goes into the oceans it only takes a slight change in how much goes into the ocean for major changes in atmospheric temperatures. For example 2015 is about to set a new temperature record because El Nino has reduced the amount of heat going into the ocean leaving more of it in the atmosphere.

      I doubt it was much warmer during the Holocene Thermal Optimum than it is now. Most of the science I've seen says the temperatures may have been similar.

    7. Re:Yet more lies by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      The only thing clear about climate change is that every day we learn that we know less and less about the Climate.

      So the outcome could in fact be much WORSE than the current IPCC projections?

    8. Re:Yet more lies by unimacs · · Score: 1

      It's not just NOAA who thinks that we have a problem and it isn't something made up by the Obama administration. Climate scientists across the world have come to the same conclusion.

      Besides, look who is behind the funding of judicialwatch.org and I think you'll know how seriously to take their accusations.

    9. Re: Yet more lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Of course they've come to the same conclusion. Scientists across the world have a tendency to reach the conclusion that will maximize their funding (whatever the research). The public has become wise to this over the last two decades and have tuned out. Since climate "science" is one of the most politicized research areas, it tends to have a higher concentration of tinfoil hats. I.e. preach doomsday prophecy for 50 years (to trick people into giving you money), then start bitching when people stop listening to your failed predictions.

    10. Re:Yet more lies by blue9steel · · Score: 2

      So the outcome could in fact be much WORSE than the current IPCC projections?

      Oh definitely. In a worse case scenario we get huge methane clathrate releases that result in MASSIVE temperature increases, possibly large enough for a global extinction event. It's a low probability scenario, but certainly scary.

    11. Re:Yet more lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The only thing clear about climate change is that scientists will never defeat the sheer power of absolute stupidity.

      Which is to say that we are doomed, since it seems that the vast majority of the people living in America are clearly far too stupid to understand even basic science.

  4. "The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" by NotDrWho · · Score: 5, Funny

    Is that a real journal? Because it sounds like something that would give me +5% radiation resistance perk in Fallout 4.

    --
    SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    1. Re:"The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 3, Informative

      I believe it's the official journal behind the "Doomsday Clock". It used to be only about nuclear war. Now, it's all ELEs

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    2. Re:"The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Is that a real journal?

      Yes.

      http://thebulletin.org/

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulletin_of_the_Atomic_Scientists

    3. Re:"The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Its in the middle of the blast crater in the Glowing Sea

    4. Re:"The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      I believe it's the official journal behind the "Doomsday Clock".

      Didn't some kid get into trouble for bringing one of those to school?

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    5. Re:"The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" by delt0r · · Score: 1

      What no zombie apocalypse?

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
  5. Can I buy mod points? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm willing to pay $10 per mod point. Maybe up to $1024.

  6. "science behind" by turkeydance · · Score: 0, Troll

    politics ahead.

  7. Won't come to that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Luckily for us all, the world is about to enter an age of massive barbarism, with islamic states taking over much of the globe - happily barbaric civilizations will generally emit less carbon as there will be a lot fewer people. Win-Win!

  8. Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0, Troll

    The one bright spot in climate change is that Miami, Florida is about to be wiped off the face of the Earth. The high-water levels there have been going up by an inch per year. Water is already seeping up through the limestone and flooding the place on a regular basis.

    http://www.newyorker.com/magaz...

    Why else would LeBron move back to Cleveland? He knew what was up.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
    1. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      That's not from the 3-5 mm/year sea level rise. That's from overpumping of groundwater. Once you suck the fresh water out, the silt compacts and the land subsides. You can fairly blame that on overdevelopment, but it doesn't have the slightest connection to climate.

    2. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by thoromyr · · Score: 1, Informative

      wow. posting is undoing my moderation and my apologies but I don't think my lone positive moderation is having any impact anyway. I just can't believe that your post is being bottomed out as a troll. Apparently the climate change deniers are even stronger here than I thought.

      To anyone reading this: just because you don't believe in climate change and the fact that Florida is facing real consequences doesn't make PopeRatzo's post a troll.

      To the person who replied with "3-5mm/year" and "flooding is caused by compaction resulting from pumping water out" -- care to explain how the limestone is compacting? Or do you really think that building houses, roads, etc., on silt actually works?

    3. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      FWIW, the highstand of the ocean during the last interglacial period roughly 120,000 years ago was probably about 8 meters (25 feet for speakers of American) above current sea level at Miami. That's without any help from human CO2 emissions.

      On the bright side, sea level rise is slow and anyway South Florida will likely eventually make a magnificent coral reef. Many people would consider that to be an improvement.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    4. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They just forgot to mention the ground water and its effects.

      Some dude in Seattle was doing a survey on water level rising in Seattle, "do you think climate change/global warming/human activity will cause...."

      I asked whether he was taking into consideration the subduction zone off the western coast of Washington State, do you think Seattle would experience a sudden rise in water level when that sucker lets go? Historical records show a two-three feet drop in ground level near the coast....

      Have you ever read an email that did massive backpedaling?

      Merry Christmas all

    5. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by riverat1 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Silt is compacting and land subsiding in California's central valley from groundwater pumping but that isn't the case in Florida where the underlying bedrock is limestone. What groundwater pumping does in Florida is allow the ocean saltwater to intrude further inland contaminating existing freshwater supplied. Subsidence is not the issue in southern Florida.

    6. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      FWIW, the highstand of the ocean during the last interglacial period roughly 120,000 years ago was probably about 8 meters (25 feet for speakers of American) above current sea level at Miami. That's without any help from human CO2 emissions.

      It might be worth looking at the state of Milankovitch Cycles then and now to understand the difference. Since the different components of Milankovitch aren't in harmony with each other each glacial/interglacial cycle is different from others.

    7. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      Don't worry about Miami. They'll get their product, come hell or high water

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    8. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      All true. And the cycles have time scales that aren't too dissimilar to glaciation cycles.

      A lot of people are looking at Milankovic cycles and trying to reconcile astronomical information which is probably very good with polar ice core temperature data that is maybe less so. So far, the results are kind of underwhelming. But maybe that'll change. Or maybe Milankovic is one component of whatever triggers and terminates glaciations and we don't have the other factor(s) well worked out yet.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    9. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by Ferretman · · Score: 1

      Nothing wrong with Florida that a few feet of global warming won't fix.

      Ferret

      --
      Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
    10. Re:Goodbye Miami, and thanks for all the cocaine. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Nothing wrong with Florida that a few feet of global warming won't fix.

      That's my point! I guess the Scrooge mods are out tonight.

      Oh well, Merry Christmas everyone. Hold tight to the ones you love.

      https://youtu.be/TBJLhOB8O0A

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  9. Smoke and mirrors. by fred911 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Considering how none of the new "agreements" are binding, what real difference does it make? Show and no go, feel good BS.

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    09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B - D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
    1. Re:Smoke and mirrors. by jandersen · · Score: 1

      Considering how none of the new "agreements" are binding, what real difference does it make? Show and no go, feel good BS.

      And how binding do you think a "binding" agreement would be? Considering the fact that most of these state leaders would have to go home and have their binding agreements ratified. This is how all politics work; you state your intentions, and then you start working towards making it happen, but nowhere is it guaranteed that it will. One of the costs of having democracy. Hopefully the respective parliaments and electorates are not all too benighted to actually go and do something about things.

    2. Re:Smoke and mirrors. by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      Public shame actually has some value so I wouldn't call it completely worthless.

  10. Where is the science? by Tokolosh · · Score: 1, Informative

    Where is the science and economics that tells us that the agreement is the optimal solution? That reducing CO2 emissions is the only possible response to the problem? That the cure won't be worse than the disease?

    --
    Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    1. Re:Where is the science? by gmadmin · · Score: 0

      Do you understand the definition of the word 'science'? It does not provide 'optimal solutions'.

      --
      Attempts at pre-emptive discounting of accurate observations do not make them any less accurate

    2. Re:Where is the science? by Tokolosh · · Score: 1

      I'll settle for a solution. Any solution. Based on science.

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      Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    3. Re:Where is the science? by Tokolosh · · Score: 1

      We have a scientifically verified problem. So in response we should just do the first damn thing that comes into our heads because science does not provide optimal solutions? Nevermind that the unintended consequences are not considered?

      Sounds like right-wing nutjobbery to me.

      --
      Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    4. Re:Where is the science? by Coren22 · · Score: 2

      We will all move to the moon and Mars in order to escape the catastrophic heating. In the far future, we will escape out to other star systems. /sci-fi

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    5. Re:Where is the science? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, lets spend another 20 years talking about solutions to conclude that it's too late to do anything and CO2 emissions should have been reduced 40 years ago. Or we can curb emissions and look for a more optimal solution instead of continuing to drag our feet until the "don't do shit" faction wins.

    6. Re:Where is the science? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget the massive heatsinks that major cities in the world create.

      Now there is a plan, create heat resistant concrete, it actually gives off cold air under all conditions.

    7. Re:Where is the science? by Tokolosh · · Score: 1

      It's already too late. We need other options, quick, but I detect an irrational reluctance to consider them. You are the foot dragger.

      --
      Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    8. Re:Where is the science? by unimacs · · Score: 1

      Taking a course of action doesn't mean that research can't and won't continue on other options. Pursuing the EPA's current clean power plan doesn't mean economic collapse either. Minnesota is already half way towards its 2030 emissions goal and its economy is doing quite well.

    9. Re:Where is the science? by Tokolosh · · Score: 1

      Taking a course of action doesn't mean that research can't and won't continue on other options. Pursuing the EPA's current clean power plan doesn't mean economic collapse either. Minnesota is already half way towards its 2030 emissions goal and its economy is doing quite well.

      I'm just not seeing the research into other options happening. Am I missing something?

      No economic collapse is a pretty low hurdle. The latest statistic is that the US economy grew by 2%. What if it could have been 5%? Minnesota is doing "quite well". Maybe it could be doing fantastically, if not for emissions goals.

      I am not arguing for or against emissions controls, only that they are being implemented on an entirely unscientific basis.

      --
      Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    10. Re:Where is the science? by unimacs · · Score: 1

      Look up "Geoengineering" to see a few examples of other research that's going on.

      The fear mongering that's gone on related to dealing with climate change is that fixing things will be too expensive and will drive energy prices sky high. Minnesota is well on its ways to meeting its emissions goals for electrical power generation yet electricity costs in Minnesota are relatively low. The national average is 10.45 cents per kWh. The cost in Minnesota is 9.63 cents. So no, the emissions goals are not holding back the economy.

      You also have to realize that there are economic consequences for allowing to climate change to continue unabated.

      It is rather surprising to me that there is so much angst over whether or not this problem really exists and whether or not it should be tackled. We have a pretty recent example of a potential global crisis that was averted. A ton of money was spent doing so and yet the world economy boomed. I'm talking about Y2K. Companies spent a fortune updating their hardware and software to avoid the problem. It worked. And the economy didn't tank. In fact, just the opposite. The difference then was that it was the companies themselves that would suffer the consequences for not addressing the problem rather than some poor folks living in coastal areas. That's why they just sucked it up and did what they needed to do.

      As far as things being implemented on an unscientific basis, I don't think that's entirely true. Obviously however, getting 200 countries to agree to do anything is absolutely going to be a very political process and to a certain extent the science of any solution will suffer to some degree as a result. There is no way around that.

    11. Re:Where is the science? by Tokolosh · · Score: 1

      Thanks for your reply. I'm not sure you are getting my point. Just saying that things aren't bad because of controls does not mean that the controls are ok. You have to consider what might have been otherwise. You say electricity is reasonable at 10.45 c/kWh, but what if it were 5 c/kWh? Maybe the economy, living standards and life expectancy would be better. Maybe we would not have a disappearing middle class.

      You make a valid point that not addressing global warming has consequences and costs. But these costs have to be balanced against the costs of emissions controls, to confirm that we are better off overall. I'm not seeing these scientific studies and economic evaluations.

      Other approaches, such as geoengineering, may be orders of magnitude cheaper. I just don't see them getting serious consideration and funding.

      --
      Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    12. Re:Where is the science? by unimacs · · Score: 1

      What I'm saying is that implementing energy efficiency measures plus replacing coal with wind and gas turbines hasn't negatively impacted how Minnesota ranks nationally in terms of what it pays for electricity. In 1999, Minnesota paid more for it's electricity than did other states (on average). Now it pays less in spite of being a leader in cutting emissions from electricity generation. I suppose it could be paying 5 c/kWh if Minneapolis didn't mind looking like Shanghai, but that would have required removing controls that were already in place and replacing nuclear plants with coal plants.

      Forget CO2 for a minute and just look up the term "externalities". There are lots of studies on the costs to society of generating electricity by various means. If you want one in particular, here's one from Harvard that says that the true cost of electricity generation from coal is 500 Billion annually. http://cleantechnica.com/2011/...

      Other potential solutions haven't seen serious consideration and funding because so far there's not enough evidence that they are more practical than the approaches already being pursued. Perhaps if the Koch brothers quit funding campaigns to discredit climate scientists and instead poured money into geoengineering research, it would be farther along.

    13. Re:Where is the science? by unimacs · · Score: 1

      A shorter answer is that if you really want to see scientific studies and economic evaluations they are out there. I would imagine life expectancies improve with fewer emissions. As far as the shrinking middle class goes, that probably has little to do with the cost of electricity since for most people the electric bill is a small portion of their total household costs. If that weren't the case, people would be much more concerned about saving electricity than they tend to be.

    14. Re:Where is the science? by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Nevermind that the unintended consequences are not considered?

      By definition, you can't consider unintended consequences.

      The point is not just that you didn't mean them to happen, but that you had no idea they would happen at all.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    15. Re:Where is the science? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Reducing CO2 emissions is something we can do fairly quickly to some extent, and it's going to be helpful. If your boat is sinking, fixing the hole isn't the only solution, but it's going to help a lot with other actions.

      We're getting a lot more energy from solar and wind now, reducing the need to burn coal. This is good. It isn't causing economic problems.

      Obviously, we can't just cut them out entirely, but we can work towards it.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  11. EEhhhhh?? by NetNed · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That contained absolutely no science, it was just political debate on a subject. I think someone needs to tell Slashdot what science is.

    1. Re:EEhhhhh?? by gmadmin · · Score: 1

      That would be swell. Of course, given Merkin's proclivity for Dunning Kruger effect and our prevalence here it would also be a pointless exercise.

    2. Re:EEhhhhh?? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      That's why we come to Slashdot......so I can say something, and everyone can respond and tell me how stupid I am.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:EEhhhhh?? by hey! · · Score: 2

      So? The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is a global security / public policy magazine aimed at a scientific readership. Presumably anyone who subscribes has been following the issues and doesn't need a science primer on climate change; they presumably do need more substantive coverage than they're going to get on cable news.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  12. Watered down agreement thanks to the USA by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I was overseas near the Persian Gulf when the accord came together and the local newspapers were lauding Obama for helping their country water down the "shall" to "should." In other words the final version was considered a huge win for countries that want to continue to sell or use as much oil or natural gas as they can.

    1. Re:Watered down agreement thanks to the USA by phantomfive · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It doesn't really matter, it's not even an agreement in any formal sense of the word. It is not a treaty, it has not enforcing power, and really it would be more accurate to say that the leaders of the world got together and made a statement.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:Watered down agreement thanks to the USA by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      Well, it was a nice travel junket, but I would do it in Germany, during Oktoberfest, with lots of barbequed bratwurst and sauerkraut.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    3. Re:Watered down agreement thanks to the USA by srmalloy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      From TFA, the reference to Kerry's speech "In the version of the speech he delivered upon arrival in Paris, he said the flat-earthers seem to think that as the world’s oceans rise, the water is just going to pour off the sides." shows the fundamental disconnect; the AGW proponents aren't willing to even consider the premises of the skeptics, so they make ad hominem attacks against the skeptics themselves to make them personally ridiculous and their positions inherently fallacial. It's always seemed to me, though, that if the proponents of one side of a scientific disagreement have to resort to bad-mouthing the proponents of the other side, rather than the research and data presented by the other side, they do it because they know that their research and data won't stand up to close scrutiny in a comparison.

    4. Re:Watered down agreement thanks to the USA by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Nobody's mad at the skeptics. They're important. However, there's a lot of deniers out there, and they throw around insults like they were all going to melt at .5C warmer and they have to use them now.

      A while ago, an oil company commissioned a climate scientist skeptic to look at the data. Previously, he had claimed that warming might or might not happen, he didn't know. The scientist looked at the evidence and came to the conclusion that warming was happening, and then some people started claiming he hadn't really been a skeptic.

      If you're not convinced that AGW is happening, that's OK with me. If you are so sure it's not happening that you start insulting the scientists, I'm going to get ticked off.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  13. The only science you need by The+Shootist · · Score: 3, Interesting

    “I’m skeptical because I don’t think the science is at all clear, and unfortunately a lot of the experts really believe they understand it, and maybe have the wrong answer." -- Freeman Dyson

    If Freeman Dyson says your science is rubbish, it is.

    1. Re:The only science you need by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      Do you have a link to that comment in context? I would love to use that quote.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    2. Re:The only science you need by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 1

      Here it is:
      http://www.npr.org/2015/05/02/403530867/a-veteran-scientist-dreams-boldly-of-earth-and-sky

    3. Re:The only science you need by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dyson is great.
      One of the greatest scientists to not win a Nobel prize.

    4. Re:The only science you need by XXongo · · Score: 1
      Sorry, but that is unfair.

      Dyson is a smart guy, and deserves to be listened to... but "listening to him" doesn't mean you have to agree with him. Being smart does not mean he's always right, and particularly not when he's not in his field.

      When you dive into what he actually says, what he says is that he hasn't studied the science and doesn't follow the literature (that's the part where he says he's not an expert) but he simply doesn't trust any computer modelling because they're complicated.

    5. Re:The only science you need by sg_oneill · · Score: 1

      If Freeman Dyson says your science is rubbish, it is.

      Confirming once again that a lot of slashdot posters appear highly incapable of judging expertise.

      Dysons a smart guy, we all know that, but he's not qualified on the topic (and says so himself) and has opinions somewhat at odds with those who are qualified on the topic. his claims on fluid dynamics are decades out of date, he's consistently misrepresented the models (possibly by incompetence rather than dishonesty, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here) and pushes the idea that increasing CO2 would be "good for the ecosystem" despite the abundantly clear evidence that so far the CO2 has had utterly chaotic effects on ocean acidity.

      Why would you take his word over an expert?

      --
      Excuse the Unicode crap in my posts. That's an apostrophe, and slashdot is busted.
    6. Re:The only science you need by zapadnik · · Score: 0

      Also, the computer modelling is not "observation", according to the Scientific Method it is "hypothesis". The actual data, from the RSS and UAH satellites and well-sited surface stations (not those subject to the Urban Heat Island effect, or unexplained adjustments from NOAA) all agree that the computer simulations do not match what is observed. The simulations predict catastrophe but observational reality shows very little warming for the last 19 years (despite CO2 concentration steadily increasing to 0.4% of the atmosphere). Furthermore, the Transient and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivities have been empirically determined with most probably values around 1.1 C per doubling of CO2, which is comparable to the 1.2 C from CO2 alone - which means water vapor does not create a positive feedback and the CAGW hypothesis is unsustainable based on the observational evidence. This is the position Scientific Method requires us to take - unless we get radically different observations. The CAGW hypothesis must be modified or discarded.

    7. Re:The only science you need by zapadnik · · Score: 1

      "Experts" like psychologist John Cooke? or journalist David Appell? or the disgraced 'Hockey Stick' fraud Michael Mann? or "Climategate" falsifier Phil Jones? or politicians like Al Gore? instead of actual climate scientists like Dr Judith Curry and Dr Roy Spencer and Dr Murray Salby (who literally wrote the graduate-level textbook on atmospheric physics). Your argument is an appeal to authority as much as the Freeman Dyson proponents are (with the difference that Freeman Dyson was not found to be a conspirator to fraud as the series of "Climategate" releases were).

      The pro-CAGW "experts" you appeal to have things to say like this:

      "No matter if the science of global warming is all phony... climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world."

      Where "justice and equality" are based on the involuntary (and thus, immoral) wealth-redistribution on the Marxist model (but re-branded as "Saving the Planet"). There are many, many more disgusting anti-democratic and anti-scientific quotes here:
      http://green-agenda.com/

    8. Re:The only science you need by tehcyder · · Score: 1
      How about this quote from him instead:

      "My objections to the global warming propaganda are not so much over the technical facts, about which I do not know much, but it’s rather against the way those people behave and the kind of intolerance to criticism that a lot of them have. I think that’s what upsets me."

      Unfortunately, the truth has nothing to do with how nice you are.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    9. Re:The only science you need by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Thanks, your rant proves that climate change deniers are driven by extreme right wing paranoia, not science.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    10. Re:The only science you need by dywolf · · Score: 2

      even Dyson can get one wrong.

      besides, you're cherry picking one quote from one scientist who isn't a climate scientist out of context, and he never called it rubbish. in fact, he does NOT actually reject climate science, or even AGW. he is at most a reluctant skeptic (a TRUE skeptic, not a denier that hides behind the word skeptic). and Dyson is also a member (founding?) of the very same group the article is even about, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

      and a personal request: if you're going to be so ignorant, don't do it under the name of the best Wayne movie ever made.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    11. Re:The only science you need by dywolf · · Score: 0

      all you've done is showcase your own ignorance

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    12. Re:The only science you need by zapadnik · · Score: 1

      "extreme right wing paranoia, not science."
      But I urge you to look at the OBSERVATIONAL DATA, and I provide links to quotes directly from sources. It seems that Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Alamists such as yourself are driven by extreme Left wing Collectivist indoctrination that must deny observational reality (UAH and RSS satellite data, and well-sited surface stations) as well as the quotes from the architects of the wealth-redistribution scam. What are you guys going to do when you find the observational evidence shows the Earth is round ?

    13. Re:The only science you need by zapadnik · · Score: 1

      "all you've done is showcase your own ignorance"
      Huh? I suggest looking at OBSERVATIONAL REALITY as shown by the UAH and RSS satellites, and the well-sited surface stations. As well as check out the quotes of the architects of the wealth-redistribution scheme. It appears you are ignorant of the satellite data, and closed minded to observational reality. I urge you to drop the dogmatism and employ The Scientific Method - where observation is king.

      "Feel the Bern!"
      ROFL !!!!! you say that I'm "showcasing my own ignorance" when you are so economically illiterate you are advocating an old white fossil whose failed ideas come out of the 1970s and were comprehensively destroyed with the collapse of the unsustainable socialist model (which is also dragging Europe down at the moment, just collapsing more slowly). Well, if there is a prize for "showcasing ignorance" then you Statist Collectivists really would get first place. LOL !!! it is hard to believe that such ignorance of fundamental economics still exists. "WEALTH IS CREATED" - once you understand this then you see socialism is not only unworkable it is also deeply immoral. Voluntary (and thus, moral) charity is more efficient than Involuntary (and thus, immoral) socialism.

    14. Re:The only science you need by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Michael Mann disgraced? Phil Jones a falsifier? Climategate being taken seriously? Pro-CACW "experts"? If they're experts, leave out the scare quotes. Would you care to identify who said that quote? I'm willing to bet a nickel that it wasn't an expert, meaning climate scientist. A web site called "green-agenda" looks political, not scientific, and you should not just believe politicians like Al Gore.

      Would you care to rephrase that post without all the ad hominems, and in what Wikipedia would call a neutral point of view? If you can't do that and be halfway convincing, you don't have an argument.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    15. Re:The only science you need by zapadnik · · Score: 1

      Why won't you talk about the satellite data, David ?

    16. Re:The only science you need by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Because I haven't looked at it. There is a simple causal relationship between what we are doing and global warming, and the climate is changing. Since the science shows what I was thinking would happen, I don't examine the details. I'm more interested in the forecasts of what might happen.

      So, what about the satellite data?

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    17. Re:The only science you need by zapadnik · · Score: 1

      "Because I haven't looked at it. "
      Epic Fail. You know, what is striking is how strong the opinions of CAGW believers are, without understanding anything about the observed reality/observations. This is a really, really, really bad habit that otherwise smart people fall into.

      The Scientific Method requires you to understand your own hypothesis, as well as any competing hypothesis - and the evidence for an against each one. But you don't follow the Scientific Method and seem quote proud of following dogma blindly. They do say Global Warming Alarmism acts like a religious cult, and your admission puts you squarely in this camp

      Since the science shows what I was thinking would happen, I don't examine the details.

      Your process is ANTI-SCIENTIFIC. You are acting contrary to the Scientific Method and yet you claim to know what the 'science shows' without ever looking at the paleo record or satellite data sets, nor understanding the limitations of the surface data or adjustments made to it. You are not practicing science at all - but are a crystal clear demonstration of Confirmation Bias and how smart people can be anti-scientific while thinking they are doing science.

      Please note, I have a PhD in Physics (specifically Astrophysics) so if you want to debate whether I'm qualified to discuss the Scientific Method then we can go down that track. But it is clear that not only are is your approach deliberately and apparently proudly anti-scientific, but you don't even seem to know the Scientific Method nor much of the observational data. Please get out of your bad and anti-scientific habit immediately.

    18. Re:The only science you need by dywolf · · Score: 1

      again: all you've done is show your own ignorance, your incapacity for thought, and gullibility/capability for believing BS.

      Not one thing you've said is backed by reality.
      Not one.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    19. Re:The only science you need by zapadnik · · Score: 1

      Huh? Look at the RSS and UAH satellite data ! I bet you haven't. Hence, you have zero clue as to what I'm talking about. Also, please look at the paleo record for the last 10000 years to get some perspective.

      Actually, it is the CAGW that is not backed by reality. The ECS and TCS have most probable values around 1.2 according to the latest review of observational measurements (eg. Lewis & Curry 2015). Do you understand the significance of this for CAGW ? CAGW is a DEAD hypothesis. The Scientific Method says so.

    20. Re:The only science you need by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      You don't know much about science, do you?

      I'm not doing climate research in any way, shape, or form. If you want details on things, find a climate scientist. If I were doing climate research, I'd know what the satellite readings were, in general, and their significance. I wouldn't necessarily have the details, since climate science, like all others, has specialties.

      I do know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, that we've been putting a lot more of it into the atmosphere, that we keep seeing higher global temperatures reported, including weather happening now that didn't when I was a kid, and that almost all climate scientists are pretty well convinced that we have caused global warming by releasing carbon dioxide from sequestered carbon. That gives a cause for global warming that I can understand, and the fact that the scientific community believes it is a strong reason to believe it. They aren't necessarily right, but it's the way to bet. In short, I do understand much of the argument, find it convincing, and generally trust scientists to do their jobs correctly. To counter that, I see lame attacks, nitpicking about unimportant details, and vicious attacks on individuals and accusations on the field in general. I construct a theory about it, that people with certainty and no evidence are prone to such things, and find historical confirmations. It's similar in some ways to the Dreyfus affair.

      I also claim to understand Special Relativity, and that it's a good model of the Universe, and have never personally observed relativistic effects. I haven't even constructed a particle accelerator, or plotted Mercury's orbit in any detail.

      I have made something of a scientific study of science in general, partly from talking with scientists and partly from the history of science, and that shows that climate science seems to be proceeding normally, and there's no reason to doubt it.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  14. You may keep your SUV by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And drive it around all you want.

    But I get to shoot you, in that oh-so-unlikely event that every scientist is a moron and every corporate asshole with a vested interest in not having to pay to clean up the mess he makes is right, and you want to escape the water by climbing onto my hill.

    Deal?

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re:You may keep your SUV by amiga3D · · Score: 1

      Just think of all the new sea shore frontage. Atlanta, Georgia will be an ocean port. Too bad about Savannah.

    2. Re:You may keep your SUV by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      But I get to shoot you

      Be sure to use "low carbon" smokeless gun powder in your bullets, otherwise you're part of the problem

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    3. Re:You may keep your SUV by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      Why should I give a damn, I'm 800m above sea level.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    4. Re:You may keep your SUV by Ferretman · · Score: 2

      > But I get to shoot you

      Mind you, I'll shoot back. Choose wisely.

      Ferret

      --
      Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
  15. ClimateDepot.com, wattsupwiththat.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There is no such thing as 'catastrophic man-made global warming'.

    1. Re:ClimateDepot.com, wattsupwiththat.com by amiga3D · · Score: 1

      Not yet, give it another few decades. Of course after all the nukes go off everything should cool down nicely.

  16. Schellnhuber is a Gaia worshiper. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And likely a Satellite Records Denier, too.

  17. Move to lobste.rs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Don't frustrate yourselves good people of Slashdot. Dice has burned the carcas of a once great site. Escape to http://lobste.rs and never again suffer at the hands of Dice staff

  18. I can sum up the "science" in one word by reboot246 · · Score: 2

    Bullshit.

    The Paris Climate Accords = politics, pure and simple
    Nothing more, nothing less.
    The science got left at the door.

  19. that was a restricted study. by mbkennel · · Score: 1


    That was looking at the very deepest ocean. Since greenhouse effect influences warming at the surface, that's where you should look.

    The 0-700m and 0-2000m ocean heat content measurements are barreling straight up.

    https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

  20. Could be worse [Re:Yet more lies] by XXongo · · Score: 2

    So the outcome could in fact be much WORSE than the current IPCC projections?

    Yep. That's what keeps climate scientists awake at night. Most particularly, the long-term feedback of methane released from permafrost and other cold traps as the temperature warms. The emphasize-the-uncertainty community (previously called deniers) doesn't like to emphasize that aspect of the uncertainty.

    1. Re:Could be worse [Re:Yet more lies] by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      No indeed.

  21. Baked In by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    Warming is WYSIWYG. What is baked in is more emissions. But it we magically stopped emissions today, warming would stop and slight cooling would begin within a decade or so.

  22. It's not science, bitches by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's hegemony. The U.S. dollar is the enforced currency tendered for oil purchases. Since the U.S. has confiscated all the oil in the world to enforce this hegemony, all the world must support the U.S. dollar if they want to buy oil. The U.S. will never allow any replacement for oil or its diminished use as this would reveal that their currency is bankrupt and their money worthless. The U.S. electorate will never elect any government that would allow their currency to vaporize.

  23. Re:Yawn by NeoTron · · Score: 4, Funny

    Hey I can play that game too!

    Cue the usual conga line of Useful Idiots who drank the Kool-Aid and have nothing but bad science and ad-hominem attacks to back up their politically-motivated wish to create their socialist Utopia which in effect will render everyone - except a few elite who Know What's Good For Us Or Else - into grey serfdom.

    So easy.

  24. Can't believe /. falls for the climate change bull by LutherDRansomJr · · Score: 1

    Leftist Caused Climate Hysteria is a HOAX to Control and Steal from YOU. That is all it has ever been.

  25. Re:Can't believe /. falls for the climate change b by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    Leftist Caused Climate Hysteria is a HOAX to Control and Steal from YOU. That is all it has ever been.

    I think you need to renew your medication, you're talking bollocks out loud in public again.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  26. Re:Yawn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You are a disgusting thing who should be dragged out into the streets by dogs and devoured.

  27. $$$MORE MONEY FOR CRONIES$$$ is not science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    nt

  28. Load of nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Heat hiding in the oceans" ??? ROTFLMAO
    Where is the proof of that statement? NONE. The measurements that have been taken show the ocean depths not having any stored heat.

    If reality and your theory disagree, your theory is WRONG. It doesn't matter how nice the theory is or who you are or how many other people agree with you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OL6-x0modwY

    A question for everyone who thinks that CO2 controls the climate. How long with rising CO2 and flat or falling temperatures before you admit your theory is wrong? 20 years? 30? Never?

    Both of the satellite datasets (RSS, UAH) show no warming for over 18 years. In that time CO2 has risen 8-10%.

    Why do I use the 2 satellite measurements?
    First they have the greatest coverage. RSS goes from 82.5N to 82.5 S and UAH, 85N to 85S.

    Second they are the least adjusted. Unlike NOAA which makes completely unjustified adjustments by raising good data (ARGO bouy temps) to match what they themselves admit is bad, corrupted data (ship engine intake temps).

    Lastly they are run by 2 scientists with good credentials (Dr Mears & Dr Spencer respectively) and despite looking at what is almost the same data come to different conclusions. Dr Mears thinks CO2 does control the climate and Dr Spencer does not. I like that. Not only does it keep them honest it makes me think and read both sides to see why they are so different in their conclusions despite almost identical data. So far I side with the position of Dr Spencer.

  29. Re:Yawn by Ferretman · · Score: 1

    Sadly typical of the Alarmist -- wanting to see the dissenter killed rather than actually consider he might be right.

    Ferret

    --
    Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
  30. Re:Yawn by Falconhell · · Score: 1

    Oh, let's see, all the credible science is on my side, yes, I'm happy to admit drinking the kook aid of real science.
    It's most amusing to see the same old delusional paranoia of the flat earthers who deny reality.

  31. Re:Yawn by Falconhell · · Score: 1

    Sadly typical of the denialist, unable to read and comprehend. Where did I say anything about killing anybody?
    Lmao.

  32. Re:Yawn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You didn't, the AC he replied to did.

    Now, what was that about reading and comprehension?