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Tesla Will Have Self-driving Cars In Just Two Years, Elon Musk Boldly Declares (fortune.com)
An anonymous reader writes: In a new interview with Fortune, outspoken Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the electric automaker is just two years away from developing fully autonomous vehicles that can operate ably and safely in any type of environment. While Musk has long championed an automotive age filled with self-driving cars, this is the most optimistic timeline for their deployment we've seen Musk make yet. In fact, Musk in 2014 said the requisite technology to manufacture a self-driving car was still about five to six years away. "I think we have all the pieces," Musk said, "and it's just about refining those pieces, putting them in place, and making sure they work across a huge number of environments—and then we're done. It's a much easier problem than people think it is."
As I recall, Google has been saying for while that they'd have something ready by 2017. On the one hand it seems like it should be surprising if Tesla manages to make it to market at the same time, since they got a much later start. On the other hand, it probably shouldn't surprise us if multiple companies get there at about the same time, since it's less about the cleverness in building the system than it is about having all of the fundamental technological pieces to do it. In particular, I think deep learning neural networks are the core technology that will make effective fully-autonomous cars feasible (plus the sensors, but those have been available for years), and to a large degree the whole world got access to that theory and practice at about the same time.
What is surprising to me is that we haven't heard more from the likes of Freightliner. IMO, that is the first really major market for self-driving vehicles, and those don't even need to be fully autonomous. If tractor-trailer rigs can just drive themselves on the freeway, freight companies can immediately get rid of 90% of their drivers and massively reduce their costs, by having a human drive the truck to the freeway then hop out and let it travel to the destination city, where another human will drive it through town to its destination. Plus, given the price of a semi tractor, adding $50K or even $100K for an automation suite is a relatively small incremental cost, while it's a rather large chunk of change for a passenger vehicle.
(Disclaimer: I work for Google, but not on self-driving vehicles and I don't know any more about the status of Google's system than what is in the public press.)
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The google cars are driving themselves already now. One could easily just replicate the technology they use and get those things onto the streets, right now. But it would be extremely risky, because google drives them in a fairly controlled environment, and the number of accidents that will happen will multiply by a large count. The question is whether one should start throwing a technology onto the markets when its still incomplete and not polished, or whether one should wait some years before that is possible.
When you launch rockets, you have fairly moderate risk connected to it. Yes, money can burn, but unless you have manned missions, no human will get harmed. Most rocket launches don't have humans on board. Cars on the other hand drive so that they can transport humans. Many cars also drive to transport cargo, but even if they drove without human oversight, they would still be on roads populated by cars with humans. So the risk connected is far higher for cars. Also, with rockets, the astronauts chose themselves if they want to become astronauts, and live with the risk of dying in a rocket accident. But with cars, you can't chose if a self driving car is with you on the street.
We should do what the AC in the rocket launch story suggested: wait until the first service pack is out. We shouldn't throw an immature technology on the market.
Also, one has to talk about software updates for self driving cars. Almost every hardware stops getting software updates by their manufacturer at some point. You can't have cars with EOLed firmware driving on the streets. Nobody should make money by selling security improvements that just mean to flip a switch.
More context:
“We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” That doesn’t mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company’s Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it’s safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says.
Anyway congrats on landing Falcon rocket. So yeah, he over promises and under delivers. But even his under delivered stuff is way too awesome.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
We'll having flying Teslas in three years! Finally, our childhood dreams embodied.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Perfect is the enemy of good.
"The car is already not YOUR car anymore because the manufacturer controls the spare parts market."
This is an amazingly uneducated response.
Go see the company called "year One" and how they are making parts for cars that have been long abandoned by the manufacturer. Oh and please feel free to continue ignoring every car made from 1927 to 1999 that also have 3rd party parts available.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
So when will they be able to handle round-abouts and unmarked lanes?
I don't know about roundabouts, but Tesla Autopilot, can already handle unmarked lanes. Tesla collects GPS data while you are driving. So if you drive down a street with unmarked lanes, it just follows the same path as other Teslas that have driven down the same street. My street has no lane markings, and my wife's Tesla can drive it on Autopilot with no problems. So this is a solved problem, and the solution is already in use by consumers.
Can someone please give Elon Musk a smack? He's just trolling us now.
You are welcome on my lawn.
Also, one has to talk about software updates for self driving cars. Almost every hardware stops getting software updates by their manufacturer at some point. You can't have cars with EOLed firmware driving on the streets.
Cars with EOLed firmware will not be allowed on the street, you will have to buy a new car. Yay for planned obsolescence.
When will humans be able to handle roundabouts? Because where I live not many people are smart enough to successfully navigate roundabouts.
"But with cars, you can't chose if a self driving car is with you on the street." I already can't choose if drunks, teenagers, and idiots are on the street with me -- I'll take self-driving cars over at least half the drivers I see every day. Self driving cars would be easy to be on the road with -- predictable, not distracted, and no road rage.
Of course, now they are putting more computers in each car, and then embedding the VIN of the car in the code running each CPU, to make it that much harder to replace said computers when they fail.
And I can't believe people are stupid enough to pay for a internet connection for the vehicle, just so they don't have to deal with their children, but also giving the manufacturer valuable information about them and how they use their vehicle, which is sold, will be used against them if they get in any sort of accident, and the cars systems will be able to be remotely altered. And please ignore the terrible track record the car companies have with keeping their systems safe. And the manufacturer partnering with a software maker like Google or Microsoft certainly won't result in code that will be hack-proof.
Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
Of course, now they are putting more computers in each car, and then embedding the VIN of the car in the code running each CPU, to make it that much harder to replace said computers when they fail.
That's not new, but eventually people figure out how to root that out. Bosch ME 5.4 and below are all fully open now, for example, including rewriting immobilizer codes. Using a $10 eBay cable and a netbook, I can theoretically the codes on mid-to-late-nineties Kraut cans in just a couple of minutes. Or, they redevelop the modules. The factory service manual typically includes literally all the information needed to implement workalikes. The good news is that automakers tend to use the same modules over and over again. The Bosch ABS 5 computer in my A8 is also the same as in contemporary A6 and Passat, and probably other modules, and there's no coding because it's fully adaptive. The only modules that tend to get coded to the car are the cluster, PCM, and TCM, perhaps the security module, and maybe the BCM but usually not.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Can it to tell that the man in front is a cop giving hand signals (and obey those signals) as opposed to some crazy person? Can it know not to stop for a potential carjacker? Can it read road diversion signs? Can it read temporary speed restrictions and roadwork signs? Can it negotiate a crossroads where the lights are out in a way that gives priority and due consideration to other drivers? Can it navigate in a long tunnel, double decker road, multi story carpark or other areas that have no GPS signal? Can it tell the difference between a bus which has stopped to pick up passengers, as opposed to a bus which has broken down and needs to be passed? Can it operate when rain or snow are impeding its sensors? Can it tell the difference between a pothole and a puddle? Can it tell the difference between a plastic bag blowing by and a child running across the street and react appropriately? Can it tell the difference between pedestrians waiting to cross vs those standing with no intention of crossing?
I bet there are a LOT of situation that neither Tesla vehicles or any others can be trusted to operate properly. I expect they'll do fine on motorways and certain predictable lengths of urban road. I expect they'll be so annoyingly bad in cities and towns that they'll be turned off or they'll be the cause of accidents.