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Tesla Will Have Self-driving Cars In Just Two Years, Elon Musk Boldly Declares (fortune.com)
An anonymous reader writes: In a new interview with Fortune, outspoken Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the electric automaker is just two years away from developing fully autonomous vehicles that can operate ably and safely in any type of environment. While Musk has long championed an automotive age filled with self-driving cars, this is the most optimistic timeline for their deployment we've seen Musk make yet. In fact, Musk in 2014 said the requisite technology to manufacture a self-driving car was still about five to six years away. "I think we have all the pieces," Musk said, "and it's just about refining those pieces, putting them in place, and making sure they work across a huge number of environments—and then we're done. It's a much easier problem than people think it is."
The google cars are driving themselves already now. One could easily just replicate the technology they use and get those things onto the streets, right now. But it would be extremely risky, because google drives them in a fairly controlled environment, and the number of accidents that will happen will multiply by a large count. The question is whether one should start throwing a technology onto the markets when its still incomplete and not polished, or whether one should wait some years before that is possible.
When you launch rockets, you have fairly moderate risk connected to it. Yes, money can burn, but unless you have manned missions, no human will get harmed. Most rocket launches don't have humans on board. Cars on the other hand drive so that they can transport humans. Many cars also drive to transport cargo, but even if they drove without human oversight, they would still be on roads populated by cars with humans. So the risk connected is far higher for cars. Also, with rockets, the astronauts chose themselves if they want to become astronauts, and live with the risk of dying in a rocket accident. But with cars, you can't chose if a self driving car is with you on the street.
We should do what the AC in the rocket launch story suggested: wait until the first service pack is out. We shouldn't throw an immature technology on the market.
Also, one has to talk about software updates for self driving cars. Almost every hardware stops getting software updates by their manufacturer at some point. You can't have cars with EOLed firmware driving on the streets. Nobody should make money by selling security improvements that just mean to flip a switch.
More context:
“We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” That doesn’t mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company’s Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it’s safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says.
So when will they be able to handle round-abouts and unmarked lanes?
I don't know about roundabouts, but Tesla Autopilot, can already handle unmarked lanes. Tesla collects GPS data while you are driving. So if you drive down a street with unmarked lanes, it just follows the same path as other Teslas that have driven down the same street. My street has no lane markings, and my wife's Tesla can drive it on Autopilot with no problems. So this is a solved problem, and the solution is already in use by consumers.
"But with cars, you can't chose if a self driving car is with you on the street." I already can't choose if drunks, teenagers, and idiots are on the street with me -- I'll take self-driving cars over at least half the drivers I see every day. Self driving cars would be easy to be on the road with -- predictable, not distracted, and no road rage.