Estimating Damages From the VW Emissions Scandal (acs.org)

ckwu writes: Last year, the news broke that in the U.S. almost 600,000 Volkswagen diesel vehicles, model years 2009 to 2015, contain software that altered engine performance and lowered emissions of toxic nitrogen oxides (NOx) during emissions tests but not during normal driving. A new study calculates the societal impact of this extra NOx: 46 excess expected deaths and $430 million in excess damages. U.S. regulators have filed a federal lawsuit against the automaker alleging violations of the Clean Air Act.

Comments

Imagine Europe

[110010001000]

Since VW diesel is much more common in the EU, imagine what harm the German manufacturer caused there. Unfortunately I doubt the EU is going to stand up to the lying German corporations, since they fund a lot of the EU activities. So much for the myth of high quality German engineering and standards.

Re:Imagine Europe

[shortscruffydave]

So much for the myth of high quality German engineering and standards.

Not at all - from what I can tell the defeat device worked flawlessly, so very high quality engineering developed to a high standard

Re:Imagine Europe

[Bob the Super Hamste]

So much for the myth of high quality German engineering and standards.

Hey the engineers who graduated at the bottom of their class need to go somewhere and my experience from late 90s early 2000s VW seems to indicate that they all work for VW.

Like Software Metrics

[jrumney]

These figures remind me of software metrics. Management loves them and thinks it lets them put a dollar (and lives) figure on some random event, but in all reality they are meaningless, constructed from a formula pulled out of some overpaid consultant's arsehole.

I don't understand?

[Grand Facade]

They passed the test.

It's obvious the test is/was broken!

Re:I don't understand?

[drinkypoo]

They passed the test.

No, you don't understand. They did not pass the test. The rules of the test prohibit defeat devices. You don't make a touchdown if you run out of bounds first, and you don't pass the test if you use a defeat device to appear to be able to meet the numbers.

On the other hand, the idea that you can actually count deaths due to VW's actions is a sad joke. You can't. 46 deaths due to air pollution are well below the level of noise. Over 50k people allegedly die in the US yearly due to air pollution. Take that number at face value; you can't accurately account for 46 more.

Re:I don't understand?

[drinkypoo]

This is kind of silly, "Do whatever you want but don't let us catch you coloring outside the lines."

Games have rules, life has rules, emissions tests have rules, don't expect to pass the test if you don't follow the rules. It's not unusual, it's how life works. Why am I having to explain life to you? How old are you?

They should not be singling out VW, What about the rest of the OEM's, BMW, GM for sure, and I have not heard of any Asian makers (yet) involved. (Maybe they covered their tracks better?)

Companies have been cheating on emissions tests about as long as we've had emissions tests. VW is getting caught right now and singled out because they are blatantly cheating. They are completely disabling emissions system features while the vehicle is in motion. The rules are explicitly designed to prohibit this.

Do I think other automakers are cheating on emissions tests right now? Yes, yes I do, and I have said as much. I also think we'll see more of them get dinged for it.

As if only EU...

[DrYak]

Since VW diesel is much more common in the EU, imagine what harm the German manufacturer caused there. {...} So much for the myth of high quality German engineering and standards.

Except that VW is far from the only existing car manufacturer.
And lots of them are NOT in the EU.

If the first caught lying happened to be Japanese, you would be saying "So much for the myth of Japanese technological innovation."

What, you expected VW to be the only one lying ? They just happen to have been the first caught doing it.

Car manufacturer and lying is a redundancy.

Re:As if only EU...

[110010001000]

Nope. No one lies like VW has. "But they all do it" is not an excuse.

Re:As if only EU...

[macsforever2001]

Nope. No one lies like VW has.

This is unsubstantiated speculation. How do you know that other manufacturers are not lying now and have not been caught yet?

"But they all do it" is not an excuse.

Very true.

Re:What a joke

[rmdingler]

Ah. Everyone else is doing it, and some of them are doing worse, so that excuses Volkswagon's wrongdoing.

Look. Older vehicles are known polluters, but it is factored in that they'll eventually end up on the scrap heap. Of course, there are many nations that will be unable to immediately upgrade to the Western nations' standards of pollutant emissions, but again, it is factored in. We can't hold the poorest of us to the same standard.

The nations with the most advantages and resources have to take the lead in these reductions, and to be fair, we have probably been polluting the longest.

Don't worry. VW will survive

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

The American Congress is the best legislature in the world money can buy. Already the House has introduced bills that will limit and protect VW from the common citizen. Senate is going to follow suit. So VW will be safe.

There is a law that says you can't change the law in a way it adversely affects you restrospectively. That is the principle under which some old products are exempted from food labeling, ingredient disclosure requirements, and the rule under which coal power plants operate under older pollution standards. So the affected citizen can claim "the new law can not take away my right to sue VW retrospectively". But VW is safe there too. The claim has to be adjudicated by the Roberts court. There is no court in the world that is more friendly than Roberts' court for Corporations, who are people. So all bases are covered.

But still there are some appeals courts and district courts that show autonomy. The issue will soon be fixed by TPP. Corportate lawyers will form arbitration boards and hear complaints argued by other corporate lawyers, who would be sitting as arbitrators in other proceedings where these arbitrators will be pleading for their clients. It is all chummy-chummy clubby atmosphere with lots of give and take. The arbitrators give tax payer funds and the corporations take it.

So let us all look forward to this brave new world.

Re:What a joke

[Incadenza]

For comparison's sake, look at India where just one of the 40 year old buses spewing black smoke is emitting thousands times more pollutants than a VW car, and then think that India has millions of these vehicles on the road.

Have you ever been to India? I guess not, since you will not find any diesel buses in the capital, New Delhi. The last diesel bus in Delhi ran in 2002! All buses and all auto-rickshaws have been converted to CNG, and do not spit out black smoke.

There are clearly other factors at play there, since New Delhi is the city with the worst air pollution on earth (bypassing even Beijng), such as delivery trucks and industry.

Re:You don't get it.. EPA is forcing me to comply

[ray-auch]

Firstly - no one knows what the performance cost of compliance will be yet, no fix has yet been approved. If they retro-fit an AdBlue SCR it may be negligible.

Secondly, it isn't clear that any other car or mfr would be better, you could have bought an Opel instead - they are currently silently updating cars during services to reduce emissions (and allegedly performance according to some reports I've seen) - http://boingboing.net/2016/01/...

Thirdly, once the dust settles on this the VW engines might even be among the best, they are certainly not amongst the worst in recent independent testing (e.g. http://www.which.co.uk/cars/dr... ). Even the petrols are busting limits (majority exceed CO limits, 10% exceed NOx), and the hybrids.

Or you could have bought a Tesla, which is probably the only unaffected option...

As House says: everybody lies

[DrYak]

Nope. No one lies like VW has.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha...

No. There are just :
- either those who got caught lying
- or those who didn't yet.
(And maybe a couple few exceptions in the middle who forgot that they could be lying).

"But they all do it" is not an excuse.

"But they all do it"
- DOES NOT mean that it should be considered normal
- DOES MEAN that you can't just single out the random one which by (lack of) chance happen to have been caught. You can't consider VW, or all german manufacturer worse than everybody else. They are not worse than everybody, but nearly everybody is just as bad as them.

Or in more practictal terms:
- As VW got caught red-handed, you shouldn't be just pointing fingers at them, and vilify them and consider them as the worst ever.
- You should instead go in panick mode and try to investigate ALL THE OTHERS AS FAST AS POSSIBLE, because it's almost a certainty they have been cheating (but just had the luck of not being discovered yet) and you need to find out fast, before they've had the time to cover their arses.

Re:Someone call Al Gore

[budgenator]

46 excess expected deaths / 320,000,000 US population

The researchers combined this information to estimate the excess NOx emissions in each county and used a model to predict the impact of air pollution by county. The mode l describes pollution movement through the atmosphere, tracks how NOx changes into harmful ozone and particulates, and predicts the health consequences and monetary damages from that pollution. The damages—primarily from particulate matter—include deaths, illnesses related to air pollution, reduced agricultural yield, degradation of buildings, reduced visibility, and reduced recreation. The model assigns costs to each of these to determine the monetary damages from NOx emissions.

in other words they guessed. The lack of error bars, the data points less than the noise floor, Report by a NGO nonprofit based on a paywalled paper, yup all of the warning signs are there.