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Perfect Coin-Toss Record Broke 6 Clinton-Sanders Deadlocks In Iowa (marketwatch.com)
schwit1 writes: While it was hard to call a winner between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders last night, it's easy to say who was luckier. The race between the Democrat presidential hopefuls was so tight in the Iowa caucus Monday that in at least six precincts, the decision on awarding a county delegate came down to a coin toss. And Clinton won all six, media reports said.
Amazingly, the coin tosses weren't done intelligently. They weren't called in the air, they weren't videotaped closely enough to show which side was up or that the coins were not double-headed, etc...
I'm not saying it's a conspiracy--just that it was a really stupid way to decide an election. Obviously the state should count all of the coin-toss delegates and split them between the tied candidates. They can't do that retroactively for this election but should change the rules for the next one.
Who cares, Hillary has already reached her term limit.
Play the futures market as well as Hillary, can arrange to have a perfect 6 out of 6 in a simple coin toss contest..
Can I see that coin again?
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
Seems Bill isn't the only Clinton that can get some head when in need.
It is a 1 in 64 chance of it happening. The odds are not all that bad.
where they just throw the coin in the air and declare it flipped.
How is it any less likely then any other combination?
Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
Low probability things do happen.
I'd look elsewhere for caucus fraud (and there are already reports coming out). A conspiracy to cheat the coin tosses would be huge and impossible to keep quiet.
See that "Preview" button?
I have absolutely no trouble imagining the Clinton campaign giving its people loaded coins. Not that I have proof that that's what happened.
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Well considering these were 6 different coin flips in 6 different locations with 12 different people calling heads or tails, how can you group them together. It seems odd, but is it really?
Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
6 coin flips and all for one person, I am going to call B.S.!
Calling Bernie Sanders? How's that going to help?
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
I could think of a couple of worse candidates.
Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
While yes, each specific combination is equally as likely, looking at each toss in a non-unique way makes the odds a but less likely. Considering 6 tosses, you're much more likely to get 3 head and 3 tails in no specific order than you are 6 heads.
If a republican wins, she wears orange. The dirt that Bill had on them has gone past it's 'use by' date.
Not sure if Sanders would help her evade justice. More than likely he would. Be he doesn't stand a chance in the general, unless the R's really fuckup. If he stands a chance, so does a 3rd party.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Who do you think provided the coins? The big banks! And who created the coins? The establish-MINT.
Wake up, sheeple!
"Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
Sounds to me like the "system" worked as designed, except that Hillary didn't walk away with a clear margin of victory. Don't worry, there is no way Sanders is going to beat the Clinton machine at this game. There is no way some crazy white guy calling himself a socialist is going to best "the Hill" like the unknown junior senator from Illinois did 8 years ago..
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
I'm reminded of Bush-Gore. Where the sole R representative in the ballot counting room had been a D 3 years earlier. They tried to close the doors and were barely stopped from flat stealing the election.
It's easy to cheat on a coin toss, if the people aren't really who they say they are.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
If she can bend the laws of probability, she has my vote!
There are 2^6 possible ways the coin tosses could have gone down (eg toss A for hillary, toss B for bernie, etc). Of these 64 scenarios, only one results in Hillary winning all six tosses. Thus the odds are 1/64.
Compare this to a scenario in which each party wins exactly three of the six flips. Of the 64 possible scenarios, twenty of them result in a 3-3 split (you can write it all out to confirm). so the odds of a 3-3 split are 20/64.
So the odds of hillary winning all six coin tosses are 20 times less likely than the odds of a 3-3 split! she basically won the lottery (or somebody had their thumb on the scale).
NEVER say those last three words again!
No you can't look at them as a group. They were all done by completely separate people. They did not all land heads and Bernie's people called some of the tosses. There is no common ground for the tosses so you have to take the individually.
Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
Why on Earth would anyone ever actually vote for Hillary Clinton? She is a horrid shitstain of a human being who belongs in prison. She is power-mad and worse, part of a dynasty. We don't need that shit in America. So, who are you people who support her? More importantly, WHY do you support her? How can you possibly reward her lawbreaking with an election to the highest office in the land? The arguments I've seen so far are that she's a woman so women should vote for her, and voting Hillary is a kind of protest vote against Trump. Look, there's already Sanders for people who want to throw their votes away, you don't need two protest candidates. I am really geniunely curious how so many of you out there can support her.
Oh, and for anyone who doesn't think it was a big deal: what if Senator Ted Cruz kept his own private email server that was promptly rooted by several foreign countries, and routed classified emails through there? Kind of puts the right perspective on Hillary's crimes, don't you think?
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
If a republican wins, she wears orange.
Not so. She gets a preemptive pardon. If her nomination is in danger, Biden remains on standby.
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
All your vote are belong to Hillary?
I am not your blowing wind, I am the lightning.
Unless Hillary runs the next 'Justice' department she will go to federal prison.
Don't get between her and the oval office, unless your insurance is paid up.
Who are you kidding? She's not getting charged for ANY of this.
At worst she gets dinged for some "process crime" like Sandy Berger did when he got caught with classified documents stuffed down his pants. There is no way the Obama administration lets her get charged on this unless she's ticked them off and they just want to throw her under the bus out of spite. They may be liberal progressives in the Whitehouse, but I don't see them as vindictive enough to do that to Hillary and blow up the democrat party in the process. Now if Joe Biden was running, then I can see the administration feeding Hillary to the sharks, but right or wrong he bowed out so the Hill is all they really have.
Now if you had worked for Hillary during this time, you better be lawyered up already. You can bet that if there is enough to charge *somebody* here (and I firmly think there is) then I'd fully expect Hillary to be throwing as many others under the bus as necessary to avoid getting perpwalked. She will then plea bargain this down to some minor (non felony) crime and be out on bond seconds after the judge announces the amount. Now if you are Huma Aberdime (sp?) (AKA, Mrs Anthony Weiner AKA Carlos Danger) you best be thinking about how an orange jumpsuit is going to look with your hair color and who's going to be watching the home front (Keeping your husband off of Social Media under assumed names) while you are away...
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
I'm not sure Obama puts that kind of stain on his record for someone he doesn't like or trust.
The push point will come when a FBI agent recommends indictment. Which should be soon.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
3-3 is 20 times as likely as 6-Hillary. This sub-1% result is possible, but it sure seems fishy. Personally I think the fix is in, and Hillary wins no matter what at the convention, but it will be fun to see how it plays out.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
Pretty sure insurance doesn't pay off in case of "suicide".
Taking the contention seriously for a minute: I can cite from personal knowledge that it did in at least one case I know of. I think the policy was of long enough standing that a "no suicide" provision timed out. Don't know if that was due to that particular policy or some regulation, but the claim did get paid.
Obama.
He brought change.
(Ba-dum tsh!)
How is it any less likely then any other combination?
By having only one way it can happen. There's 6 ways you can get 5 heads in 6 tosses, etc.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
Gotta wonder who provided the coins?
What difference [pounds desk] at this point, does it make?
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
Then both Bernie and Hillary could both claim to have won . . . and lost . . . at the same time. Now looking over at the Republican corner . . . I think that the folks who have lost, are the American citizens.
Wouldn't it be cool, if some guy managed to crawl out of the Washington political poop, and declare himself as "socially liberal, fiscally conservative", and get people emotionally enthused about this election? The way I see it now, folks are just looking for the "least worse candidate".
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
For a homework assignment in a statistics course, half the class was asked to record the actual results of 100 coin tosses while the other half was asked to fake the same results by writing down what they thought might be a reasonable random sequence of heads and tails. With only a quick glance at a student's homework, the professor was able to determine whether the statistics were real or faked, with 90% accuracy! The giveaway clue was the occurrence of runs of 5, 6 or even 7 consecutive heads or tails. These are likely to occur in actual sequences, contrary to some naive intuitive notions about randomness.
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The supreme court selected Republican Establishment George Bush instead of the people's popular vote?
No. The US Supreme Court said that the Florida government officials empowered before the election to make decisions regarding counts and recounts and submission deadlines would have their decisions stand.
Plus there is the pesky detail that the newspapers did their own recounts afterwards and found that Bush would still have won.
Plus there is that other pesky detail that the "popular vote" was never the agreed upon criteria for selecting a President. It was always the electoral college and both sides designed their campaigns with that in mind, not the popular vote. If the popular vote was the goal then both sides would have run very different campaigns.
It is a false urban myth that Gore would have won the recount. The election was "stolen" from Gore not by the Florida Governor nor the Florida Secretary of State nor the Florida Supreme Court nor the US Supreme Court. It was "stolen" by the Democratic Party officials who designed and deployed the butterfly ballot that confused Democratic voters into accidentally voting for Pat Buchanan. Gore lost due to his party's error. Painful but true. To say otherwise is denial.
Getting Biden into the general would be some fancy footwork by the DNC at the convention given he's not been on the primary ballot anywhere. I'm not saying they cannot do it, but somebody would have to get Bernie Sanders to pull a Vince Foster disappearing act to make it happen or there would be lawsuits upon lawsuits in protest from all his supporters.
The only way she gets pardoned is if she has been found guilty. That takes either a trial and a conviction or a guilty plea. A trial would take years to come and I don't see that there is enough time here for her to negotiate a plea, plead guilty and get pardoned given how much time we have before the election. Plus it would further harm her campaign which is showing signs of serious trouble given she cannot soundly beat Bernie Sanders in Iowa.
Seriously, if she does get charged, nothing really changes for her. Yea, she endures some attack ads, but all she need say is it's a witch hunt by the "Vast Right Wing" which is out to smear her because they are mean, women haters or anything else that resonates with the base. It will only cost her a few votes overall in the general. It may cost her the election, but I doubt it will really matter in the end.
But who are we kidding.. She's not going to be charged by this administration.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
Especially considering the semi-rigging that is the 'super-delegates' that the DNC nomination process features. Between having a close ally as the party chairman to rig the debates in your favor (severe limitation on number, scheduling for times when people will be watching other things or not watching TV at all), and then swing extra votes from the establishment behind you at the nominating convention, it's still a lock even with Bernie Sanders wildly outperforming.
Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
Odds of 1 in 56 will win you $2 in Mega Millions when buying a $1 ticket. So yes, she basically "won the lottery", or least "won in the lottery". Not in the way that most people think of when you say winning the lottery, though.
Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
Low probability things do happen.
In coin flips and Options trading when it benefits Hillary, they SURE do. I always wondered why she didn't hit the Power Ball Lottery myself...
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
Pretty sure you're wrong. Life insurance generally comes with a no-pay provision for suicide that runs out after a specified time, typically two years.
In terms of "classified" documents being found on it, so far, no one has said if any of them were ever "classified" at the time they were sent.
Yes, they have. Items sitting on the server in her house were from SAP material (above-top-secret stuff) that by its very definition is classified. We're talking about actual, current, operational intelligence - the sort of stuff that involves moles in foreign governments, satellite imagery from NRO systems, that sort of thing. The State Department has just said that there are over 20 emails just in this latest small batch that can't even be released in any sort of redacted form because the classified material in them is so sensitive. When she got the SoS gig, she signed the usual federal paperwork that says that if she becomes aware of classified material existing in channels that aren't appropriate (as in, government-controlled secure access systems) regardless of whether or not it is so "marked," that she is criminally liable for its mishandling if she doesn't immediately involve security personnel to secure it. She completely blew off that requirement.
She also didn't release any of them to the public, without them going through the proper channels
No, what she did was have her own personal staff (people without clearances!) go through 60,000-some emails and decide BEFORE ANYONE IN THE GOVERNMENT GOT A LOOK AT THEM which were or weren't "work related." Which means that even among the emails they eventually passed along, her non-cleared personal employees at her foundation were pawing through what we now know were SAP-level documents. Further, she took everything and burned it to some USB drives, and gave at least one to her NON-CLEARED lawyer, who then put it in his own personal safe. Crimes, again, at several points along the way.
In other words, all the steps have been followed.
No, they haven't. She explicitly went about conducting official government business, including the handling of Special Access Program material, on a non-secured private server in her home - all for her personal convenience and so that she could avoid FOIA requests looking at her government correspondence. So the very first step that should have been followed never was, right there. She never even had State set her up with a secure mail account in the first place. You understand that, right? She never even COULD have followed the rules because she chose to avoid even the very first step of following the rules. Then she failed the next requirement, which was to turn over ALL of her government-related records at the time she left office - again, something she chose not to do, and she had to get subpoenaed for the information and dragged the process out for years after she left office before delivering the information after she'd had her own staff handle it, destroying over half of it. That's another violation of the required process. The archivists at State are the ones who are supposed to decide what is, and isn't relevant from a record-keeping point of view. She deliberately prevented that step. She then stripped off all of the meta data and other header information from all of the emails she DID deliver, and provided them as context-less printouts, on 50,000 pieces of paper. And that's just her getting started on doing it all wrong.
Until someone comes out and says that document so and so was classified at the time it was sent and was known or should have been known to be classified by the person sending it and/or receiving it, nothing wrong has occurred that crosses into any type of criminal offence of state secrecy laws.
This has already been established. You're not paying attention. Inspectors General from multiple intelligence agencies have said that there was at-the-time classified material (including the holy grail, SAP-level material) running around on a non-secure computer in her house.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
I wonder where this video of Sanders winning a coin toss came from then.
I stole this Sig
So I guess that money really did decide this election! /rimshot
Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
Who had their own privately managed server that they used to conduct all department business other than HC?
Biden remains on standby.
You mean he'd be.. *snigger* he'd be... *snort*
Sorry. Ahem. He'd be - oh, wait, wait...
*dons sunglasses* 8) ...Biden his time?
YEEEAAAH
systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
The coin toss is just a typical media misdirection, the real story is in the voting machine fraud and the vote count fraud.
Those who understand how the world really works knows The Rothschilds has already picked Clinton (see cover of the 2016 Januaray editions of the Economist).
Clinton voter fraud in Polk County, Iowa Caucus
Voter Fraud and 'Missing' Precincts: How Clinton Stole Iowa
Caucus chair and Clinton precinct captain do not conduct actual count of Clinton supporters and deliberately mislead caucus
Imagine how many other precincts used similar tactics. The fact that even C-SPAN calls it outright voter fraud should leave Americans with no illusions: The Democratic nominee has already been chosen.
But wait, it gets worse:
Sanders's camp says that the Iowa Democratic Party has informed the campaigns that the caucus results from 90 precincts are missing.
â" John Wagner (@WPJohnWagner)
February 2, 2016
That's right: Caucus results from 90 precincts are missing. Clinton is certainly talented at misplacing/deleting things that she doesn't want people to read.
Hillary Clinton receives $200,000/hour to speak to Goldman Sachs behind closed doors (and no transcripts of what she says are allowed, of course). Do you really think this election hasn't already been bought and paid for?
"Democracy" is fun.
True that. I have twice rolled three twenties in a row on a twenty-sider. In 35 years of game play. 20^3=8000, so I don't have a hard time believing a 1 in 64 chance.
(The first time, I was a guest player. The regular players demanded to inspect my dice, and when they found out they were normal dice, they were stunned.)
(The second time was with my regular group. They made me wash my smelly feet, and when I returned to the table, I rolled three twenties in a row. The stuff of legend... )
I can see the fnords!
She did...and made $100k on $10k investment in a day.
Funny how only the governor's wife gets invited into such investment opportunities.
Her fortune and her career and her fame are all from riding Bill's coattails. And she's the choice of modern feminists? I guess modern feminist leaders really are just democratic party stooges.
Actually, one in 32 odds. The chance that a coin tossed one time lands with the same face up is 1 in 1. The chance that a coin tossed two times lands with the same face up is 1 in 2, etc.
A little over two standard deviations.
However, as Washington Post notes, "see the update below: there were other tosses which Sanders won."
The update states:
Update: The initial 6-for-6 report, from the Des Moines Register missed a few Sanders coin-toss wins. (There were a lot of coin tosses!) The ratio of Clinton to Sanders wins was closer to 50-50, which is what we'd expect.
https://www.washingtonpost.com...
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
there will be even more desparate attempts by the DNC to fix this, and the insider party hacks, but at a certain point you can't stop a tidal wave.
They tried this last time, but you have short memories.
Didn't work then.
Won't work now.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Actually, one in 32 odds. The chance that a coin tossed one time lands with the same face up is 1 in 1. The chance that a coin tossed two times lands with the same face up is 1 in 2, etc.
I'd check your math, it's 1 in 64.
If a coin is tossed once, you can have 2 results
H
T
If a coin is tossed twice, you have 4 potential results:
HH
HT
TH
TT
etc...
We understand the problem is your broken perception but don't know what to do about it except keep explaining. Someday you will wake up.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
ROTFL like it matters to them, ALL the candidates are their man.
"I opened my eyes, and everything went dark again"
I'm reminded of Bush-Gore. Where the sole R representative in the ballot counting room had been a D 3 years earlier
You think they can't convince a simple coin to vote their way when they've already had a representative that was a d3?
Last post!
It was a tie, statistically speaking. People for some reason despise that concept. There can be no tie, just more and more recounts will decide it, until the original ballots are shredded from too much handling. The margin of error was larger than the difference in votes. So 50 different recounts would have had 50 different results. A toin coss would have been equally fair and much less controversial (mathematically). So yes, I agree - get over it, nothing was stolen.
Speaking as a decline-to-state voter with no party affiliation, that whole affair just proves there are far too many whiners in both parties.
"Heads Hillary Wins, Tails Bernie Loses"
So what's the problem?
The coins could all have been heads OR they could all have been tails. There are 64 possible outcomes, but 2 are sufficient. 1/32 is correct.
I still don't see it. There is a 1/32 chance that *either* of the two candidates would have won all of the coin flips, but only a 1/64 chance for 'only Clinton' or 'only Sanders'
I knew Hillary was a witch.
You can't prove that it was corruption in action. All you can do is estimate the likelihood. But from other considerations I've say that the likelihood was a lot higher than 64 to 1.
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
Posting this here so it gets more views.
The story is wrong. There were many more coin flips than just the 6 reported and Sanders won his fair share of them. The coin flips are a result of precincts that have an odd number of delegates to the Iowa State Democratic Convention. Say the precinct has 5 delegates and the vote between Clinton and Sanders was a tie. The precinct then sends 2 delegates for Clinton and 2 delegates for Sanders and the 5th delegate is decided by the coin flip. IIRC from the story I heard on NPR there are something like 11,000 delegates to the Iowa State Democratic Convention and it is at that convention where the actual delegates to the Democratic National Convention are selected. So with 11,000 delegates to the state convention the results of a few coin flips aren't going to change much.
In "at least" six precincts, what does that mean exactly? To me that implies that there were more precincts where they had to decide by coin toss, which means there could have been another 6 where Sanders won. Anyone can cherry pick a sub group of tosses out of a bigger total that came out with an unlikely result..
--
Stay tuned for some shock and awe coming right up after this messages!
Please link such finding that says the data was classified and known to be at time of sending. Every article I have found says so far that no one has found evidence that any emails were classified at time of sending:
http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-used-private-email-send-clinton-now-classified-222700568--politics.html
"There was no indication that the information in Kerry's email was considered classified at any level at the time it was sent or if Kerry, then chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, would have considered it particularly sensitive"
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/hillary-clinton-email-state-department-release-214246 " The messages are from January 21 and 22, 2011 and were forwarded to Clinton's private account by Deputy Chief of Staff Jake Sullivan"..."A State Department spokesman said that message, and the others deemed classified, were not marked as such when they were sent to Sullivan by other State officials." (so in other words, Sullivan was sent the message on unclassified systems and he simply forwarded to his boss, which means it was not Sullivan's or Clinton's fault, and is just the spread of a data spill event)
"The other message deemed "SECRET" in Wednesday's release is only classified in a technical sense."..."It appears Abedin, now the vice chairwoman of Clinton's campaign, got the transcript from State officials who downloaded it off the Internet and were debating how to respond to the leak." (In other words, the classified document was on the internet, yep, somehow that is Hilary's fault according to you).
http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/71316/justice-dept-may-probe-compromise-classified-info-hillary-clintons-email
"As has been reported on multiple occasions, any released emails deemed classified by the administration have been done so after the fact, and not at the time they were transmitted"
I could keep on going on and on and on, but so far, there has been nothing that I have seen which has said the emails that have been deemed to contain classified information were generated or created by Hilary and/or can be attributed to a fault that she caused.
We were all warned a long time ago that MS products sucked, remember the Magic 8 Ball said, "Outlook not so good"
So, you don't actually know what SAP material is. Why can't you just say that? Don't be embarrassed.
If it's SAP, it's born classified. It doesn't matter how it's marked, or if markings have been removed by her or anyone who sent it to her. If it's on her personal server, and she knows it's there, she's a felon. It's that simple.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.