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North Korea Accused of Testing an ICBM With Missile Launch Into Space (examiner.com)
MarkWhittington writes: Reuters reported that North Korea launched a long-range missile that is said to have placed a satellite into space. The launch happened much to the consternation of North Korea's neighbors, South Korea and Japan, as well as the United States. Pyongyang claimed that the missile launch was part of that country's peaceful space program. But, other countries are pretty sure that the launch was a test of an ICBM capable of placing a nuclear weapon on any target in the world, particularly the United States.
The only difference is the payload.
It's amazing that NK still has the means to play serious games with the rest of the world. Of course, this test was intended to scare the rest of the world into throwing more money at the madman in charge hoping he stays quite again, for a little while at least. Instead, new ways to provoke an eventual land war will be dreamed up. They won't just go away. China needs to do more to keep NK under control, unless NK's games are tolerated by China for reasons unknown.
They aren't signatories to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. They are parties to the outer space treaty but as long as the US and others have ICBMs I find it hard to argue that ICBMs are covered by that treaty. Makes sense since the weapons don't reside in space nor are designed to target space objects but just pass through space on the way to their targets.
I don't get the US centric bias towards military policy. Basically anyone that becomes capable of attacking the US is automatically an aggressor that needs sanction. What about the US' ability to attack everyone? How about those pricks disarm and reduce their military to 1/10th the size, stop toppling governments because they don't like them etc?
China needs to do more to keep NK under control, unless NK's games are tolerated by China for reasons unknown.
The reasons are far from unknown. China is currently grabbing as much territory as they can, anywhere they can:
Baekdu Mountain (North Korea) ...)
Bhutanese enclaves in Tibet (Bhutan)
Demchok, Chumar, Kaurik, Shipki Pass, Jadh, and Lapthal (Taiwan, India)
Hong Kong (Taiwan)
Jiandao (North Korea, South Korea)
Kula Kangri and points West, Haa District (Bhutan)
Macclesfield Bank (Taiwan, Vietnam)
Paracel Islands (Taiwan, Vietnam)
Scarborough Shoal (Taiwan, Philippines)
Senkaku Islands (Taiwan, Japan)
Shaksgam Valley (India)
Arunachal Pradesh (Taiwan, India)
Spratly Islands (Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei)
Taiwan (Taiwan)
Eastern Bhutan (Taiwan, Bhutan)
Mainland China, Hainan (Taiwan -- but the PRC has a pretty good claim here 8^)
Western Heixiazi / Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island (Taiwan)
Penghu, Jinmen,Matsu Islands, Pratas Islands (Taiwan)
Songling District, Jiagedaqi District (Mongolia)
Pamir Mountains (Tajikistan)
Yalu River islands (North Korea, South Korea)
Shaksgam Valley (India)
Anything that keeps peoples attention focussed elsewhere is all to the good, as far as China is concerned. The territorial waters claims in the South China Sea, in particular, are important to them in terms of extending their range of control, in order to control fishing rights, since their population is still rising, despite sterilizations after the second child, and similar measures.
NK with ICBMs is a big concern because there is doubt that the NK leaders are 'rational actors.' So normal considerations like self preservation of the country or people may not apply.
"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble. I like my coffee black, just like my metal" - Mindless Self Indulgence
North Korea is currently under international sanctions for violating several UN Security Council resolutions. That means that the majority of the UN considers North Korea's missile/nuclear program to be a problem, specifically destabilizing the region and undermining the global nonproliferation regime. In case you forgot, the nonproliferation treaty states that aside from the "nuclear weapon states" (China, France, Russia, the US and the UK), no other nation state should receive, manufacture or acquire nuclear weaponry. The NWS are also the five permanent members of the Security Council.
So within the bounds of international law and politics, North Korea is indeed disallowed to have ICBMs. Who's disallowing them? Everyone. As of the last few resolutions, even China has decided to withdraw their support, making the resolutions passed unanimously. Nuclear weapons aren't something you get to unilaterally decide you'll develop and own, and if you do, other countries will be extremely suspicious of you and for good reason.
Let's not kid ourselves here: North Korea is a farce. Its people is continuously under threat of famine, is being brainwashed, held back on just about every level, because the leadership of the country wants to conserve an iron grip on their small patch of land. As such, it's one of the poorest and most isolated places on the planet, and politically is extremely unstable and dangerous. You can't consider them on a rational level because they are not a rational actor. They have severe delusions of grandeur, regularly threaten just about every neighbor of armed conflict, often for no apparent reason, etc. The best possible thing that could happen for NK and the rest of the world would be a slow transition towards democracy and a complete reconstruction of its political sphere (including eliminating all current military and political personnel, up to Un himself). Failing that, I hope that one day the rest of the world decides to act upon this retarded stepchild and cut the head off - the transition would be far more traumatic, but at least it'd happen.
North Korea is currently under international sanctions for violating several UN Security Council resolutions. That means that the majority of the UN considers North Korea's missile/nuclear program to be a problem, specifically destabilizing the region and undermining the global nonproliferation regime. In case you forgot, the nonproliferation treaty states that aside from the "nuclear weapon states" (China, France, Russia, the US and the UK), no other nation state should receive, manufacture or acquire nuclear weaponry. The NWS are also the five permanent members of the Security Council.
Try to see it from NK's point of view. It's biggest enemy, the one that keeps playing war games off its coast and supplying SK with military hardware is part of a powerful club, and no-one screws with them. To get into the top ranks of this club and wield all this, you need nuclear tipped ICBMs. The goal of the club is to make sure no-one else ever gets them, although it's both ineffective (India, Pakistan, South Africa) and corrupt (the US tolerates Israel's nuclear weapons and won't allow sanctions or inspections).
If the rest of the world really wants NK to abandon its nuclear programme then it first the US needs to stop antagonizing it, and then every effort has to be made to normalize relationships. Despite the impression you may have been given, NK isn't a closed state or unable to participate in world events. They hold international sporting events, you can do business with their technology companies.
Yes, they have work camps and a lot of other horrible stuff. The US has Guantanamo and various other black sites, including one in New York where inmates are tortured. Various European countries violate human rights and ignore legally binding UN rulings. The way to address that stuff is to engage, not to stand off and pile on more and more sanctions.
Finally, can we stop calling Un a mad man please? He isn't insane, he isn't stupid. None of them are. They know the game, they play it because it benefits them to do so. It's not unlike how many western politicians bemoan the fact that the political system is broken, but do little to fix it because its how they got there in the first place.
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SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
From what I've seen, even China is getting sick of North Korean antics and have started applying political pressure behind the scenes for them to chill out. Unfortunately, it seems as though NK is ignoring it and going rogue, which is a really bad idea as it's really only the influence that China wields that keeps them from getting steamrolled by any of several other countries or groups.
If anybody here would like to understand the situation in North Korea better, I highly recommend reading Victor Cha's book _The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future_. Cha worked for the George W. Bush administration and he's an expert on North Korea. Not to digress, but it would really be helpful is President Obama would make somebody in his staff who pays attention to North Korea read this too. Secretary of State Kerry keeps demanding that China do more. If he'd just read the book or have a staffer summarize it for him, he'd understand why they won't.
Here's the deal. North Korea started the Korean War on their own and Mao and Stalin weren't really happy about it. Stalin refused to get involved although he was willing to for Soviet pilots to serve as the de facto North Korean Air Force during the war. China committed troops only when it looked like MacArthur might actually get up to the border with China and possibly invade China. China paid a real price in blood to save North Korea. Mao's own son was killed in the fighting. So while the old line of North Korea and China being "closer than lips and teeth" is no longer really true, China does feel involved because a lot of her soldiers died in that war and they don't want it to be for nothing.
What Kerry, Obama and others in the US need to understand is what Cha points out in his book. Namely, that China really doesn't like North Korea causing problems but it views all possible outcomes of a post-North Korea version of Korea as really bad for China. China feels stuck in that it knows that North Korea's regime can't last forever, but if it puts too much pressure on them, they may collapse soon and remember, they view all post-DPRNK outcomes as very very bad for China. China fears that a unified Korea will have US soldiers stationed in what is now North Korea, so that means right on its borders. China also fears that once North Korea falls, the border will be overrun with North Koreans (there is an area of China near the border that is majority ethnic Korean, so refugees would likely go there) and China will have a humanitarian disaster on its hands that it will have to spend time and resources to deal with. Additionally, in exchange for their financial support, North Korea is basically selling its rare earths to China at below market prices, so China is financially very vested in maintaining this. A unified Korea is not likely to let China continue to destroy the North Korean countryside to get rare earths at a discount. China doesn't see any possible outcome of a post-North Korea world where things aren't a lot worse for China, so they are caught in rarely using the influence they have. However, outsiders, especially the Obama administration, seem to greatly overestimate what influence China actually has. The reality is that China has more influence than they are willing to use, but not as much as everybody else thinks. The Kim regime will do what it can to survive and if that means going against China, no problem there. China is simply never going to stop providing money and assistance as long as the regime exists, so expecting China to do anything but maintain the status quo is not very likely to happen.