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North Korea Accused of Testing an ICBM With Missile Launch Into Space (examiner.com)
MarkWhittington writes: Reuters reported that North Korea launched a long-range missile that is said to have placed a satellite into space. The launch happened much to the consternation of North Korea's neighbors, South Korea and Japan, as well as the United States. Pyongyang claimed that the missile launch was part of that country's peaceful space program. But, other countries are pretty sure that the launch was a test of an ICBM capable of placing a nuclear weapon on any target in the world, particularly the United States.
The only difference is the payload.
It's amazing that NK still has the means to play serious games with the rest of the world. Of course, this test was intended to scare the rest of the world into throwing more money at the madman in charge hoping he stays quite again, for a little while at least. Instead, new ways to provoke an eventual land war will be dreamed up. They won't just go away. China needs to do more to keep NK under control, unless NK's games are tolerated by China for reasons unknown.
They aren't signatories to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. They are parties to the outer space treaty but as long as the US and others have ICBMs I find it hard to argue that ICBMs are covered by that treaty. Makes sense since the weapons don't reside in space nor are designed to target space objects but just pass through space on the way to their targets.
I don't get the US centric bias towards military policy. Basically anyone that becomes capable of attacking the US is automatically an aggressor that needs sanction. What about the US' ability to attack everyone? How about those pricks disarm and reduce their military to 1/10th the size, stop toppling governments because they don't like them etc?
For what bizarre reason shouldn't North Korea be "allowed" (by whom?!) to have ICBMs when the US - its biggest enemy - also has has them? And why would China "need" to prevent one of its closest allies from protecting itself from a possible american aggression?
North Korea is a sovereign nation and it has the right to have nuclear weapons and ICBMs, so that it will be safe from any possible Iraqi-style american invasion.
China needs to do more to keep NK under control, unless NK's games are tolerated by China for reasons unknown.
The reasons are far from unknown. China is currently grabbing as much territory as they can, anywhere they can:
Baekdu Mountain (North Korea) ...)
Bhutanese enclaves in Tibet (Bhutan)
Demchok, Chumar, Kaurik, Shipki Pass, Jadh, and Lapthal (Taiwan, India)
Hong Kong (Taiwan)
Jiandao (North Korea, South Korea)
Kula Kangri and points West, Haa District (Bhutan)
Macclesfield Bank (Taiwan, Vietnam)
Paracel Islands (Taiwan, Vietnam)
Scarborough Shoal (Taiwan, Philippines)
Senkaku Islands (Taiwan, Japan)
Shaksgam Valley (India)
Arunachal Pradesh (Taiwan, India)
Spratly Islands (Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei)
Taiwan (Taiwan)
Eastern Bhutan (Taiwan, Bhutan)
Mainland China, Hainan (Taiwan -- but the PRC has a pretty good claim here 8^)
Western Heixiazi / Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island (Taiwan)
Penghu, Jinmen,Matsu Islands, Pratas Islands (Taiwan)
Songling District, Jiagedaqi District (Mongolia)
Pamir Mountains (Tajikistan)
Yalu River islands (North Korea, South Korea)
Shaksgam Valley (India)
Anything that keeps peoples attention focussed elsewhere is all to the good, as far as China is concerned. The territorial waters claims in the South China Sea, in particular, are important to them in terms of extending their range of control, in order to control fishing rights, since their population is still rising, despite sterilizations after the second child, and similar measures.
NK with ICBMs is a big concern because there is doubt that the NK leaders are 'rational actors.' So normal considerations like self preservation of the country or people may not apply.
"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble. I like my coffee black, just like my metal" - Mindless Self Indulgence
It's not about actually attacking the US. It's about perpetuating the propaganda. Our media hypes the threat for him. All he has to do is the NK version of shouting "ooga booga" and we all jump. I'm not saying there isn't a credible threat here, but it actually benefits NK to keep us all wondering. they can spin the hell out of it to their citizens.
As much bad rap as Obama and the US government gets on a daily basis, I would never imagine in a million years anyone in there deciding to declare war over a neighbor and start shelling nukes at them. With NK, it's not only probable, it's almost inevitable if they are left alone long enough. They are not rational, they do not care about the well-being of their citizens, and they think they can get away with many things. At some point they'll think too large and hit a city or contaminate a big area and people will die for no reason.
To compare the US and NK is utterly reductionist and shows a complete lack of understanding of the differences in context.
All NK has to do to fuck the planet is loft some high explosive packed around a tonne of sand into a retrograde orbit and blow it up.
Goodbye trillions of dollars of fancy hardware once the debris cascade starts. Asymmetric warfare is a bitch ain't it.
From what I've seen, even China is getting sick of North Korean antics and have started applying political pressure behind the scenes for them to chill out. Unfortunately, it seems as though NK is ignoring it and going rogue, which is a really bad idea as it's really only the influence that China wields that keeps them from getting steamrolled by any of several other countries or groups.
If anybody here would like to understand the situation in North Korea better, I highly recommend reading Victor Cha's book _The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future_. Cha worked for the George W. Bush administration and he's an expert on North Korea. Not to digress, but it would really be helpful is President Obama would make somebody in his staff who pays attention to North Korea read this too. Secretary of State Kerry keeps demanding that China do more. If he'd just read the book or have a staffer summarize it for him, he'd understand why they won't.
Here's the deal. North Korea started the Korean War on their own and Mao and Stalin weren't really happy about it. Stalin refused to get involved although he was willing to for Soviet pilots to serve as the de facto North Korean Air Force during the war. China committed troops only when it looked like MacArthur might actually get up to the border with China and possibly invade China. China paid a real price in blood to save North Korea. Mao's own son was killed in the fighting. So while the old line of North Korea and China being "closer than lips and teeth" is no longer really true, China does feel involved because a lot of her soldiers died in that war and they don't want it to be for nothing.
What Kerry, Obama and others in the US need to understand is what Cha points out in his book. Namely, that China really doesn't like North Korea causing problems but it views all possible outcomes of a post-North Korea version of Korea as really bad for China. China feels stuck in that it knows that North Korea's regime can't last forever, but if it puts too much pressure on them, they may collapse soon and remember, they view all post-DPRNK outcomes as very very bad for China. China fears that a unified Korea will have US soldiers stationed in what is now North Korea, so that means right on its borders. China also fears that once North Korea falls, the border will be overrun with North Koreans (there is an area of China near the border that is majority ethnic Korean, so refugees would likely go there) and China will have a humanitarian disaster on its hands that it will have to spend time and resources to deal with. Additionally, in exchange for their financial support, North Korea is basically selling its rare earths to China at below market prices, so China is financially very vested in maintaining this. A unified Korea is not likely to let China continue to destroy the North Korean countryside to get rare earths at a discount. China doesn't see any possible outcome of a post-North Korea world where things aren't a lot worse for China, so they are caught in rarely using the influence they have. However, outsiders, especially the Obama administration, seem to greatly overestimate what influence China actually has. The reality is that China has more influence than they are willing to use, but not as much as everybody else thinks. The Kim regime will do what it can to survive and if that means going against China, no problem there. China is simply never going to stop providing money and assistance as long as the regime exists, so expecting China to do anything but maintain the status quo is not very likely to happen.