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SpaceX's Latest Launch Successful, But Ends With a "Hard Landing" (theverge.com)

Eloking writes with this news from The Verge: SpaceX successfully launched its Falcon 9 rocket into space this afternoon, but — as expected — failed to land the vehicle on a drone ship at sea afterward. CEO Elon Musk said the rocket 'landed hard' on the drone ship. The mission requirements made a successful landing unlikely. This was SpaceX's fourth attempt to land the Falcon 9 post-launch on an autonomous drone ship floating in the ocean. All of the previous sea landings failed too, though the third attempt came very close. The company had low hopes of a successful landing from the start of this mission, since the rocket had to send a heavy satellite into a high orbit. That requires a lot of fuel for the launch itself, so there wasn't much fuel left for the rocket's return to Earth and powered landing.

25 of 129 comments (clear)

  1. Expectations game by ratnerstar · · Score: 4, Funny

    SpaceX and Marco Rubio are duking it out to see who wins "best management of the expectations game." Personally, I'm gonna give "third place win" the edge over "successful failure," but that's just me. Good hustle all around guys!

    --
    Just because you sold your soul to the devil that needn't make you a teetotaler. --The Devil and Daniel Webster
    1. Re: Expectations game by Type44Q · · Score: 2

      Because Musk is a total fuckup unless every rocket test goes perfectly?? He is indeed an impressive guy and attempting to put him down can't be easy but surely you could've come up with better than that?

    2. Re: Expectations game by beelsebob · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Right, successfully inserting a communications satellite into geostationary orbit, exactly as contracted to do... Such a fuck up.

    3. Re: Expectations game by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 5, Interesting

      "When NASA has a launch failure or even a postponement it's nightly news, complete with commentary as to how it's all a waste of money, government can't do things right, etc."

      The public expects a government space program to be run with perfect safety, which everyone in the business knows is as unattainable as safe aviation was in 1920, and that it must not do anything "adventurous" like landing a booster, even if the activity is not mission-critical and does not pose any threat to human life. Manned space programs have to go private not because NASA is incompetent, but because only the private sector is allowed to take risks.

    4. Re: Expectations game by Teancum · · Score: 2

      Another elon musk fuckup

      If that is a fuckup, I think he deserves to continue receiving money for many more similar fuckups.

      Seriously, what possible standard are you seeking here? The payload got delivered to the proper orbit and the customer themselves were so impressed that they want to send another payload with SpaceX.

      Geez, nobody can possibly be pleased.

    5. Re: Expectations game by Teancum · · Score: 2

      If they (NASA) tried to land boosters and had the same fail rate they'd be accused of being a total waste with calls of how they should get back to expendable rockets because God forbid they should innovate and maybe fail.

      If NASA was operating rockets that had the flight success of SpaceX, I doubt they would be accused of total waste like you are stating. This launch was a friggin success that got the payload to the intended destination for crying out loud. What the hell are you talking about?

      The failure of the recovery of the lower stage just means an experimental concept using reserve fuel for a stage that otherwise would have just been tossed in the ocean if it wasn't built up for recovery has yet another data point that can be used to refine the recovery concepts.... concepts that many of "those in the 40s, 50s, and 60s who actually laid out how to do this stuff" said couldn't be done in the first place.... yet here is SpaceX actually doing it.

      Calling a huge resounding success as an abject failure is just somebody who delights in the misery of others when there is no call for misery in the first place.

    6. Re:Expectations game by Teancum · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I don't think it was "almost." That describes the landing when the first stage touched down then tipped over.

      There wasn't really much of an expectation it would be successful anyway. The largest problem was that there was very little reserve fuel left in the rocket due to the fact that nearly all of the fuel needed to get the payload delivered to GEO (also due to the heavier payload itself) that it wasn't really thought that the rocket could land.

      SpaceX basically made an attempt anyway. Close in this case is that the rocket ran out of fuel when it was close (in proportion) to hovering velocity, but 1%-2% of the original velocity when it was in space was still going way too fast to land gently.

    7. Re: Expectations game by Rei · · Score: 2

      But he didn't land a nearly empty 70 meter rocket on a boat in the middle of the ocean. That makes him a failure. I don't know about you, but I've never once crashed a 70 meter rocket on a boat landing - like most people, my rockets have a perfect record.

      --
      Stale pastry is hollow succor to one who is bereft of ostrich.
    8. Re:Expectations game by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Are there still people here who don't know the difference between an orbital and a suborbital rocket? I thought we were past that.

      AmiMoJo: the difference between landing a suborbital rocket and landing an orbital rocket is the difference between jumping off your couch and landing on your feet without falling over, and jumping off a ladder and landing on a pogo stick without falling over.

      --
      Stale pastry is hollow succor to one who is bereft of ostrich.
    9. Re: Expectations game by Teancum · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well, I think part of his argument is that they aren't doing it. How many successful landings have they had on their barge?

      How many successful landings has anybody had from landing a 5 story tall launch vehicle above the Karman Line (aka what is commonly thought of as actually outer space) and then landing that rocket on a barge in the ocean?

      I think the level of expectation here is just a tad bit high, where even the notion of calling this a failure is simply absurd.

      Very useful engineering data was obtained on this flight, including in the landing. For a rocket that wasn't expected to be recovered at all in this particular case, SpaceX did a pretty good job at trying to recover it, and got some pieces anyway as it actually did land on the barge.... just not as slowly as necessary to get it in one piece.

    10. Re:Expectations game by rasmusbr · · Score: 2

      It's really mostly about speed and kinetic energy.

      The Blue Orbital New Shepard first stage and the Falcon 9 first stage are both suborbital vehicles, but the F9 is faster and way more energetic in terms of energy per unit of mass. Here are some numbers:

      New Shepard first stage
      Speed at MECO: 1250 m/s
      Kinetic energy per kilogram: 0,8 MJ

      Falcon 9 first stage, LEO launch
      Speed at MECO: 1650 m/s
      Kinetic energy per kilogram: 1,4 MJ

      Falcon 9 first stage, geostationary launch:
      Speed at MECO: 2250 m/s
      Kinetic energy per kilogram: 2,5 MJ

      The Falcon 9 first stage also has to navigate to its landing site, while the New Shepard just has to basically go straight up and down.

      An actual orbital vehicle like the Falcon 9 second stage or the Dragon spacecraft travels at at least 8500 m/s and has 36 MJ/kg of kinetic energy when it begins entry. Landing a second stage of a rocket like the Falcon 9 will obviously be incredibly difficult.

    11. Re: Expectations game by haruchai · · Score: 2

      You could make the same claims about electric cars & vactrains yet we now have a Musk company that's built & sold 100k battery-only electric cars and has inspired
      several Hyperloop-based projects that are getting close to very small-scale 1st testing.

      He's not (yet) Ford, Edison, Westinghouse nor Tesla nor is he Tony Stark but he's doing a damn fine job of trying.

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    12. Re: Expectations game by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 2

      How many successful landings has anybody had from landing a 5 story tall launch vehicle above the Karman Line (aka what is commonly thought of as actually outer space) and then landing that rocket on a barge in the ocean?

      None. On the other hand, if I say I am going to walk barefoot on water and I fail, I doubt you would be so quick to say that, "Oh, he almost made it that time..."

      Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree. SpaceX can try as many times as they like and I'm rooting for them to figure out a way to do it. And they're not necessarily losing anything, since the first stage would be thrown away anyhow. If I were an investor--and I'm not--about the only question I might be asking would be how much are they spending to develop this technology and how much money do they think they'll save--in short, what is the ROI for something like this? If you end up spending $100 million to save $1 million, that means 100 or so launches until you see the profit from your work.

      I imagine that Elon Musk and the folks at SpaceX have calculated it out and decided it's worthwhile.

    13. Re: Expectations game by Teancum · · Score: 2

      about the only question I might be asking would be how much are they spending to develop this technology and how much money do they think they'll save--in short, what is the ROI for something like this?

      Some hard numbers to throw around on something like this:

      The current "price" of a Falcon 9 is about $70 million USD. This is how much you would be asked to pay for a standard Falcon 9 if you made a serious inquiry to sales @ spacex.com for a real quote, but that comes before special one time engineering charges or extra features and special handling. That price gets you a rocket, the basic range fees for an ordinary simple LEO payload delivery, and engineering data for a standard SpaceX payload connector. Most payloads usually require some special engineering considerations, so the price usually goes up from there.

      The "cost" of a Falcon 9, in terms of raw labor and manufacturing costs to get that vehicle actually manufactured is definitely less than that figure, where I've heard the price is speculated to possibly in the very roughly $20-$30 million range to build that rocket, with most of that cost concentrated in the construction of the lower (1st) stage of the Falcon 9.... let's say about $15-$20 million for actual labor & manufacturing costs of the lower stage. That is a huge profit margin, which one of the reasons why Steve Jurvetson (a member of the SpaceX board of directors) is publicly quoted as saying the SpaceX financials are "financial porn".

      Elon Musk also suggested that the fuel costs for a typical Falcon 9 flight are well less than $1 million per flight, more along the line of about $250,000 per flight to give a general ball park figure.

      You can use that as a range of figures to try and figure out what the ROI of performing multiple failures and how many times you need to recover the lower stage before it becomes profitable. Also of note, this particular launch of the SES-9 vehicle likely would have been to purchase the full vehicle and not really involve any bonus for lower stage recovery where the expectation is that the stage would not have been recovered. It should also be of significant note that purely for R&D purposes that have nothing to do with reflying the lower stage, obtaining the physical equipment for engineering review is incredibly valuable where actual rocket engines used to delivery payloads into space and then put on a test stand for additional performance testing can help to significantly improve reliability. Just using a borescope to peek inside of the engine parts to see how they held up under actual flight conditions is alone worth the price of that stage if it means fewer disasters like the CRS-7 flight.

      In short, I think you could likely make a case that even recovering one in three or more likely every other launch for that lower stage would more than pay for this whole recovery program effort from a strict cost accounting basis. I'd love to see what the engineering costs for this recovery development have been,but compared to the costs of developing the Merlin engines or the costs of developing the Dragon spacecraft, I suspect it is minor and almost incidental. A single successful recovery is worth at a minimum of $10-$15 million cash in hand, and that even includes the costs of the barge operations.

      To show where SpaceX is looking from their own caculations, they intend to drop the price of the Falcon 9 to about $30 million with the regular recovery of the Falcon 9 lower stage, and if they can ever get the upper stage to the point of being recovered as well, that price goes down to a mere $7 million per launch that they intend to charge their customers. SpaceX has also announced their intention to perform payload faring recovery and reuse, just to show the extent of their reuse plans.

  2. Elon Musk designs anti-drone rocket by penguinoid · · Score: 2

    Boom!

    --
    Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
  3. ocean landing will not happen during rough seas by WindBourne · · Score: 2

    Right now, both of the barges have horizontal thrusters that will keep the barges in 1 place. In that regard, it makes much easier for the craft to come down. However, the barges do not have vertical thrusters, so, they will pitch and roll in the same location. Without these, it is going to be impossible for these to land on the barge during heavy seas such as what was seen. On a calmer day, with say 1 m waves and under, the stages will do just fine.

    --
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    1. Re:ocean landing will not happen during rough seas by Dereck1701 · · Score: 2

      Satellites take years to develop, and sometimes sit on a shelf for years more before they get a launch slot. Waiting a few days/weeks for "perfect" weather is nothing compared to that. I imagine launch customers look at the criteria in the following order, First that their satellite makes it to orbit, secondly that it is done so as cheaply as possible, and a distant third that it is launched on time. The only exception might be some interplanetary launches, but in with a properly designed propulsion system there is no reason why the satellite/probe couldn't be launched a few weeks/months early to loiter in an elliptical orbit until the window came up.

    2. Re:ocean landing will not happen during rough seas by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 2

      This is problematical, because it freezes a whole bunch of parameters. It means you can't aim for your orbit, you have to aim for your re-entry destination instead. Orbital inclination, speed, and the length of the burn must be exactly what is necessary to hit that platform. Especially for high-delta-V missions like this last one, where there isn't enough fuel for a boost-back burn and the barge was 600 kM downrange.

    3. Re:ocean landing will not happen during rough seas by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 2

      On the Reddit spacex forum, the moderators aren't allowing posts with back-of-napkin engineering like this any longer. You need to present the math. They are doing that because we've heard all of the suggestions before and we're totally bored with them. Nets. Moving platforms. Big foam yonis. A big crane that grabs the rocket really fast. Giant baseball gloves.

      One would hope the rocket itself could handle up-and-down motion of the barge. It has a radar altimeter and a computer.

    4. Re:ocean landing will not happen during rough seas by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 3, Informative

      The challenge here for SpaceX is that a single engine can not throttle down enough to hover the empty booster. That's why they call it "hoverslam", if the engine stayed on the rocket would bounce back up. There would be a lot more room for error correction if that was the case.

  4. Re:How about aiming for a pool? by stevelinton · · Score: 2

    They can do a landing on solid ground (or at least they have done it once). Unfortunately, there is no solid ground in the right place for most flights

  5. Re:Why not have a big net by JoshuaZ · · Score: 3, Informative

    The rocket is not designed to handle stress from all angles. Flopping into a net would entail coming down hard in a direction that it is not designed to handle stress. The primary advantage of a vertical landing is that most of the stress remains vertical just like when the rocket is being launched. Building it to handle other directions would require much more mass. They'll get this to work eventually, and this was a very difficult run anyways because the orbital profile required the rocket coming down from higher up, at a higher velocity and with less fuel to work with. Please be patient.

  6. Re:Why the drone ship by Guspaz · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's all about the fuel. On launches that leave enough spare fuel, they actually return the rocket all the way back to a landing pad at the launch site in Florida. They successfully landed the rocket once in that manner. But on launches that require more fuel (to put a heavier payload into a faster orbit), there isn't enough fuel leftover for the burn that would send the rocket back towards the launch site. As a result, they are limited to a relatively ballistic trajectory from the launch site, which means landing somewhere out to sea. The landing destination is actually pretty precise (the drone ship is trying its best to stay stationary, not move to meet the rocket), it's just that it's the only place they have enough fuel to get to.

    The first stage of the rocket never reaches orbit: it's still going really really fast, but not orbital velocity. So after the second stage separates, left alone, the first stage would start falling down again downrange and crash into the ocean.

    Normally, after separation, the first stage flips itself over and then does a boostback burn to kill the forward momentum, and give it enough momentium backwards to line up its trajectory back towards the launch site. Then later it does a deceleration burn to slow itself down to keep the atmosphere from ripping it apart. And then finally, it does a landing burn for the last segment to slow it to a stop.

    On some missions, they don't have the fuel to do that full boostback burn, so they kill some of the forward momentum, but that's it.

  7. Re:Why the drone ship by slashping · · Score: 2

    Actually their one successful landing was from a launch in Florida, but they had enough fuel to return to the launch site.

  8. Re: ocean landing will not happen during rough sea by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 2

    I think SpaceX will sell a lot more geostationary transfer orbit missions now. They've shown that they can do it with a pretty heavy payload: 5300 kg, and they delivered 1300 km greater apogee than promised.

    Your cost figure for building a recovery platform is for one of them. So, suppose that one would work for GTO on F9. To limit the delta-V needed for recovery, you'd probably need another for GTO on F9H center stage, because it gets a lot higher and further downrange, one for LEO insertions that can't return to landing site, one for polar orbits from Vandenberg, one for the 51.6 degree inclination of ISS. You'd also need to permanently man them and sustain the expense of offshore maintenance. And you'd continue to need barges and ships to transfer rockets from them. So, this probably increases the per-launch staff and infrastructure expense significantly when SpaceX is trying to reduce that.

    The rocket is a big narrow tube, yes, but it's quite bottom-heavy at landing. LOX is in the upper tank, and you can see from the Orbcom recovery video that they vent the LOX the instant the rocket sets down, so that tank is empty. RP-1 is at the bottom of the lower tank, and then engines are under that. The engines are the heaviest part. The rest of the rocket is equivalent in thickness and weight to a soda can scaled up to that size. Pressurization is used to keep it rigid during flight. So, I think the chance of tipping over, if the legs actually work correctly, is lower than many folks estimate.