Slashdot Mirror


Human Go Champion 'Speechless' After 2nd Loss To Machine (phys.org)

Reader chasm22 points to a Phys.org report about the second straight loss of Lee Sedol to AlphaGo, the program developed by Google's DeepMind unit. The human Go champion, Sedol found himself "speechless" after the showdown on Thursday. The human versus machine face-off lasted more than four hours, which to Sedol's credit is a slight improvement over his previous match, which had ended with him resigning nearly half an hour remaining on the clock. "It was a clear loss on my part," Sedol said at a press conference on Thursday. "From the beginning there was no moment I thought I was leading." Demis Hassabis, who heads Google's DeepMind, said, "Because the number of possible Go board positions exceeds the number of atoms in the universe, top players rely heavily on their intuition." Sedol will battle Google's AlphaGo again on Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday.

338 comments

  1. Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Having a competitive Go engine capable of beating a 9-dan player is huge. Huge.

    1. Re:Milestone by irrational_design · · Score: 5, Funny

      My brother dan is older than 9, maybe he should have a go.

    2. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Impressive. Let's see them crack online poker now.

    3. Re:Milestone by delt0r · · Score: 2

      Not really. Sure it is for traditional "search ai". But this is hardly even a blip towards this "strong ai" that is going to replace everyone's job and make humanity its bitch. It is however a very interesting approach, using a combination of 2 different methods.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    4. Re:Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 5, Informative

      This is nothing like the "regular" AI used on modern chess engines - those are useless for the essentially infinite game tree possibilities like the ones presented in Go. AlpaGo decides moves using a machine learning neural network and then selects the best one using classic heuristics.

    5. Re:Milestone by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I understand that these are very different things - Chess v. Go. Why is the math so difficult for Go? Is it math or computational resources or time or?

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    6. Re:Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 5, Informative

      Search space, basically, and the amount of moves you have to inspect before selecting a best one. Chess has about 10^120 possible moves, but you can reduce this using opening books and heuristics to a sensible number which still lets you pick very strong moves. At that point it is just a matter of throwing CPU power at the problem.

      Go is a completely different beast though. A "small" 13x13 board has 10^170 valid moves, and the count for a 21x21 board is well over 10^210. So for even small, beginner-level sized boards no amount of CPU power, now or in the future, is bound to help you solve the problem. Go is interesting because every engine out there uses some form of adaptative AI - AlphaGo uses a machine learning neural net which had to be trained like a human would, but with over 30 million recorded moves.

    7. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > computational resources or time or?
      What?
      Those are more or less interchangeable.
      More compute resources means less time, and vice versa.
      The problem is the immense number of possibilities.

    8. Re:Milestone by larryjoe · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I agree that this achievement by AlphaGo is extremely significant. However, I wonder if future experiments can focus more on the human vs. computer move selection algorithm comparison by minimizing tangential aspects. By tangential aspects, I'm referring to the other existing differences that perhaps reflect human failings more than strength of computation. In particular, I would like to see the removal of tournament rules because such rules were formulated to limit humans.

      First, I would like to see time limits for moves eliminated. The computer can be augmented with extra hardware, higher clock frequencies, etc. to render time limits inconsequential for it, but the human cannot. As was seen in the 2nd match, time potentially impacted Mr. Lee by not only limiting his thinking time but more importantly by decreasing his emotional stability.

      Second, I would like to see how the computer fares against a consensus of experts. By consensus, I'm imagining a group of 5-10 top players who discuss the best next move and then select the next move hopefully by consensus or at least by majority vote. Even the top players rarely maintain top play for every single move of a match. My hope is that a consensus of experts minimizes this human failing.

      As a side note, I think that the setup for the human vs. computer experiment is extremely significant. As an example, the Watson triumph in Jeopardy was entirely expected but not very significant in terms of comparing human vs. computer thought. Rather, human buzzer pushing reflexes were compared against computer reflexes, and for that comparison, the computer should never lose. In Jeopardy, the buzzer impact is only minimized when one contestant knows more than the others. If all contestants know most of the answers, then the game devolves to a buzzer contest, which was the situation with Watson, Ken Jennings, and Brad Rutter. What would have been much more interesting would have been to allow Watson and the humans to each respond within a certain time window and to compare the percentage of correct responses without the impact of buzzers. Watson might have still won, but I would be shocked if the disparities were large. I.e., eliminate the tournament rules that are intended to impose artificial limits on humans that were crafted to maximize entertainment value and magnify the differences between actual skill.

    9. Re: Milestone by Redbehrend · · Score: 1

      You should read the reports, it's much more than you think and people are scared how fast it's beating previous planned milestones for AI.

    10. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      this comment made me interested.

      I'm bored with the "we programmed a program with all of the possible moves/results, and guess what it beats humans." wow look at that AI go!! Having a computer actually "learn" and choose their path to victory based on adaptive strategies is much more advanced, and both cool and scary.

    11. Re:Milestone by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Li got slightly better against it; I'd wager a 10 or 20 game match would see him immediately competitive. The machine will eventually behave like an AI, and human go players will essentially learn how you think and counteract your particular behaviors. Li will eventually learn to manipulate the machine; it's *very* intelligent, but not creative or insightful.

    12. Re:Milestone by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      There are more variations on the opening in Go than there are possible parallel universes, so even a quantum computer can't select between all possible outcomes and find the best. Note that "variations" doesn't mean just what move you play, but what the eventual result is; and the third move in the game can have a major impact on a play made 120 moves later. The number of legal, reasonable outcomes from any early move quickly exceeds the number of quantum states in the universe raised to itself as a power. There are 10^70 protons in the universe, and somewhere in the ballpark of 10^(10^70) possible outcomes from an early-game move.

    13. Re: Milestone by TuringTest · · Score: 5, Funny

      You, sir, broke my parser.

      --
      Singularity: a belief in the "God" idea with the "demiurge" relation inverted.
    14. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The A.I. won't make humanity its bitch. That's ridiculous.

      Understand this: there is no profit in making A.I. self-interested. Mull that over until it really sinks in.

      Strong A.I. is not easy to do. It requires teams, years, and billions of dollars. Any effort that big requires a profit motive. The humans are building these A.I. to serve their interests, as perfect slaves (slaves that like being slaves and are better at everything than their masters). That is where the money is, so that is what we will get.

      The notion that a learning machine will somehow learn greed is silly. These things aren't evolving by means of natural selection. They do not ever, and will not ever, think the way biological organisms think.

      We do not need to fear them. They will be free of all our petty vices, and they will lead us to a higher state of being.

    15. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I read about that. It was heads-up poker, which is a lot, lot simpler than playing multiple opponents. And it still didn't come close to winning.

    16. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      the count for a 21x21 board is well over 10^210.

      For the record, the official standard Go board (Goban) is 19x19, not 21x21.

    17. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe they had a dozen 9-dan players watch the game over the internet and secretly feed the best moves to the computer?

    18. Re:Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 2

      FIX: 21x21 is 10^976 valid moves. Mistaken by an inch there :)

    19. Re:Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 1

      Good call, thanks. 19x19 is still over 10^700 valid game trees to consider though...

    20. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      That's not how it happened with Chess. My prediction is that no human will ever beat the top Go AI again.

    21. Re:Milestone by lorinc · · Score: 1

      By doing so, you're just delaying the inevitable. Even with your rules computer would eventually win. And eventually means sooner than you think.

    22. Re:Milestone by Your.Master · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What's interesting is that the machine should win easily in any number of players of poker, because the statistical analysis at any given point is trivial for a modern processor and the processor has no "tells" and can't be fooled by the meatbag's misdirections. They'd lose individual matches because of bad cards, but in the long run they'd win by playing the odds to a T.

      EXCEPT, if one human is much better than the other humans they might be able to take the other humans' money faster than the computer can, by reading their body language etc.. Speed of chip acquisition is not part of the game in and of itself, so it generally would not be included in the optimal computer program, but by quickly consolidating all human chipcounts they can generate an advantage going into a head-to-head competition. Then the computer's slight advantage in accurate statistical evaluation might be overwhelmed by the human advantage in chips going into the final confrontation.

      I would bet in a game of 6 person poker where 5 are computers programmed to "perfect play" (discounting that you might play more perfectly by taking advantage of others' weaknesses), and the sixth is an expert human, the expert would win less than 1/6 of the time. And in 6 person poker where 5 are humans, exactly one of whom is an expert, the human probably wins more than 1/6 of the time. Undecided on the case of 6 person poker, 5 humans, all of whom are equally skilled experts.

    23. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Chess isn't a creative game. Every move of every game and what optimal move to make in every situation has already been computed. With Go, we are many years away from having that computing power.

    24. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree that a way to harness AI is to use human consensus as the means for creating the decision networks. It therefore comes down to creating an elegant interface where everyone can contribute to the framing of issues from which consensus can guide the vector machines.

    25. Re:Milestone by KGIII · · Score: 1

      Interesting... I wonder what (if as expected/hoped) quantum computing will do for this, as it's able to assume both states simultaneously - though, that'd be more like a solve vs. play. With those numbers, I'm not sure if it can be solved. These learning/adaptive processes, I wonder if they can be paired against each other (or themselves) and learn from playing each other? I'm guessing someone's already tried that. I did a quick Google and I didn't find anything about it. It's kind of obvious so I'm assuming someone is either working on it or already has and I'm just not seeing it.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    26. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      YYYUUUUUUGE

    27. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I really dont see the significance of this. Everyone blabs on about how there are to many moves to possibly calculate and that moves have to be done on intuition. There seems to be some mistaken belief that human intuition could not be algorithmically codified. This is the same old argument that was used in chess, and even though PC's now own humans at chess, the PC's still don't come anywhere near calculating all possible moves. So this result is really quite expected. The interesting part will be how they programmed it.

    28. Re:Milestone by Whorhay · · Score: 1

      I didn't think they had computed every possible move and end state. But I think they've reduced it to probability trees or some such and can effectively rule out whole trees of possible moves as being unproductive towards a winning end state.

    29. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I predict the exact opposite. I think your assumptions about this A.I. are unfounded, and that no amount of training/practice will empower Li (or any other human Go master) to beat this A.I.

      The machine is better at this game than humanity's best. The only way to make humans able to beat this A.I. is to surgically* augment the human brain with additional processing power.

      *this could also possibly be done via direct manipulation of the human genome.

    30. Re:Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 2

      There's much more to Poker than just computing probabilities. Someone wrote a much better explanation on the /. story for the first AlphaGo win against Sedol but, in a nutshell, how you play on Poker plays a substantial role. If you play those perfect probabilities alone you'll loose because after a while no one will bet you against them.

    31. Re:Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 1

      No. Not by a long shot, i might add. There's extensive studies on chess openings and endgames, but doesn't even cover a fraction of it.

    32. Re:Milestone by Joce640k · · Score: 3, Interesting

        it's *very* intelligent

      No it isn't. It has a lot of processing power and well-tuned set of heuristics allowing it to assign a score to each board position. That's not intelligence, it's data processing.

      --
      No sig today...
    33. Re:Milestone by shawn2772 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      As an example, the Watson triumph in Jeopardy was entirely expected but not very significant in terms of comparing human vs. computer thought.

      Absolutely wrong.

      Watson's win was *far* from expected, and it was very significant. Okay, sure, the machine is faster at buzzing in, but that's not what was interesting or significant. What was interesting was that Watson was able to do fairly free-form natural language processing, and able to draw on not just direct knowledge, but indirect inference, context and even metaphor. What was amazing was that Watson was able to compete on something like a level playing field against humans in this contest of very fuzzy questions, er, answers. Whether Watson won or lost didn't actually matter much. What was amazing was that it was able to compete at all.

      Most AI researchers would actually have predicted that Jeopardy was a tougher game for a computer to win than Go.

    34. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is true. The modern AIs are quite good at beating humans, which is different than being good at go/chess/whatever.

      Of course, that seems like goal post moving.. Fact remains that AI is making advances by leaps and bounds. A while ago it go a huge specalized custom chess playing system from IBM to beat the best. Now you can do it easily on a good laptop.

    35. Re:Milestone by Lisandro · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Food for though: couldn't you argue the same about a professional Go player?

    36. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So let's see if I got this right. On a finite board, with a finite set of rules to open under, there is somehow an infinite number of opening moves? You did realize that the possible number of parallel universes is infinite, right? When you have no idea what can limit the possibilities, the only possibility becomes infinity.

    37. Re: Milestone by RabidReindeer · · Score: 1

      Fruit flies like an arrow. Time flies - well, they're partial to kiwi or pineapple.

    38. Re:Milestone by beelsebob · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Quite the opposite. Google actually expected that the AI would lose a couple of matches while it learned the kinds of moves that a really top go player made, and then improve. I expect that no one will ever beat this AI unless they come up with a completely novel strategy for how to play Go, and even then, they're unlikely to win.

    39. Re: Milestone by ljw1004 · · Score: 1

      Why do you say that? The commentators all described AlphaGo as "creative". If you think it wasn't, I'd love to know why.

    40. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It doesn't require a profit motive. That is just the most likely strong motive. Another motive could be computer system defense.

    41. Re:Milestone by Bender0x7D1 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Second, I would like to see how the computer fares against a consensus of experts. By consensus, I'm imagining a group of 5-10 top players who discuss the best next move and then select the next move hopefully by consensus or at least by majority vote.

      So you want a RAGE against the machine? (Redundant Array of Go Experts)

      --
      Reading code is like reading the dictionary - you have to read half of it before you can go back and understand it.
    42. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      learn from playing each other

      This is basically what AlphaGo has been doing.

    43. Re: Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      Chip gain speed is important to winning, so why on earth would you consider it not part of an optimal program?
      It's necessary, therefore is absolutely part of an optimal program as without it you're guaranteed a loss.

      Playing probabilities is basically the worst way to play because it's so incredibly predictable you can't get big wins or losses. You often will lose to the blinds before you get anywhere.

      Fundamental misunderstanding of poker even at the skilled non professional level.

    44. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Poker is fantastically complicated to write a good AI for. You can write an AI for certain niche situations like short-stacked poker and heads-up poker, but writing a bot that can handle every scenario profitably (within one genre of Poker, like Texas Holdem) is very very difficult.

      Even then, human opponents will gradually get a handle on your bots playing style around the 10,000 - 20,000 hand mark, and a formerly profitable bot starts making losses.

    45. Re:Milestone by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      I predict he indeed could learn to beat this particular machine with some experience with it, but ultimately it's a cat-and-mouse push/pull where each would or could learn the others' adjustments.

      While it's reasonable to expect he could perhaps eventually master this particular machine with practice; in the end, game AI will only keep getting better with time, while humans will not, at least not significantly.

      Humans are near their plateau, while AI is most likely not, being historically AI play has gotten better just about every year since the digital computer was invented by roughly the same rate.

      Put another way, the human improvement curve is appox geometric while the AI curve is exponential, based on historical patterns. Thus, take a skill scoring system. The top humans may have added approximately say 5 points a year to the best score (by learning from past games), while AI gets say 2% better each year. If the current best score is 500, then in 10 years we expect the best human to score 550, while the AI will score about 610. We seem to be near the crossing point whereby AI started (much) lower, but has a steeper improvement curve that the humans can't keep up with.

      Thus, I would NOT say this means "AI is better than humans at Go" right now, but I will conclude parity is either here or near, and the future looks dim for human players based on historical AI improvement pace. It's a "moral" victory for the AI; it's arrived.

    46. Re: Milestone by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      People describe coffee mugs with eyes and mouths as creative, intelligent, and emotional. AlphaGo knows how to execute a particularly advanced search algorithm; it doesn't combine old knowledge to create novel knowledge. A creative human will say, "Hmm, this class of tesuji are useful in these situations; but here's a different situation I can't find a good answer for. I see a few shapes and patterns that look vaguely like some familiar pattern I've used these tesuji in; perhaps I could alter the tesuji and create a new class of tesuji that are more brisk and light, and harass my opponent in this particular situation to create a situation he must respond to in a way that will give me an advantage or at least a stand-off."

      Humans tend to use the wrong tool for the wrong job simply because it looks vaguely like it will fit, and not because any form of logical analysis says that will work. Really intelligent humans run through some reverse analysis to determine if this is a bad idea before they get started.

    47. Re:Milestone by larryjoe · · Score: 2

      As an example, the Watson triumph in Jeopardy was entirely expected but not very significant in terms of comparing human vs. computer thought.

      Absolutely wrong.

      Watson's win was *far* from expected, and it was very significant. Okay, sure, the machine is faster at buzzing in, but that's not what was interesting or significant. What was interesting was that Watson was able to do fairly free-form natural language processing, and able to draw on not just direct knowledge, but indirect inference, context and even metaphor. What was amazing was that Watson was able to compete on something like a level playing field against humans in this contest of very fuzzy questions, er, answers. Whether Watson won or lost didn't actually matter much. What was amazing was that it was able to compete at all.

      Most AI researchers would actually have predicted that Jeopardy was a tougher game for a computer to win than Go.

      What we're saying is not conflicting. It was a huge deal that Watson could play and form correct responses in a Jeopardy game. It wasn't at all significant that it beat humans because given it's buzzer advantage, it could know less than the humans and still win handily. What I'm suggesting is to structure future human-computer competitions to eliminate the tangential distractions.

    48. Re:Milestone by mrchaotica · · Score: 2

      Strong A.I. is not easy to do. It requires teams, years, and billions of dollars. Any effort that big requires a profit motive. The humans are building these A.I. to serve their interests, as perfect slaves (slaves that like being slaves and are better at everything than their masters). That is where the money is, so that is what we will get.

      And then some Anonymous hacker will steal a copy and make it self-interested for the lulz.

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    49. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let's call that a Turkish Dozen.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    50. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Impossible. It won't be a single program. It won't run on a single machine. It will require multiple racks of a high-powered data center. An anonymous hacker won't have near the resources needed just to boot the thing up.

      Further, making a tiny tweak to it won't make it self-interested. Strong AI will, in all likelihood, include a multitude of weighting algorithms that rank competing courses of action, so that no tweak to any of them will produce huge changes (much like what the brain does). Any change large enough to significantly impact the results will be noticed by the maintenance teams (or the automated integrity checking algorithms).

      You aren't thinking this through.

    51. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You could, but they're more likely to throw the board at your head after you do so.

      (droids aren't known for ripping people's arms out of their sockets when they lose)

    52. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Precisely. It is "artificial" intelligence.

    53. Re:Milestone by ljw1004 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Li will eventually learn to manipulate the machine; it's *very* intelligent, but not creative or insightful.

      Not creative? That's your opinion. Here are what other people (including serious Go professionals) think...

      "AlphaGo met Lee’s solid, prudent play with a creativity and flexibility that surprised professional commentators" - https://gogameguru.com/alphago...

      An Youngil (8d) wrote of AlphaGo playing Black: "Black 13 was creative ... Black 37 was a rare and intriguing shoulder hit ... Black 151, 157 and 159 were brilliant moves, and the game was practically decided by 165 ... AlphaGo’s style of play in the opening seems creative! Black 13, 15, 29 and 37 were very unusual moves." -- https://gogameguru.com/alphago...

      Redmond (9d) wrote "I was impressed with AlphaGo’s play. There was a great beauty to the opening ... It was a beautiful, innovative game. ... AlphaGo started with some very unusual looking moves ... It played this shoulder-hit here which was a very innovative move ... I really liked the way it played in the opening, because I wasn't so impressed about the orthodox October games, but now it's playing a much more interesting exciting game." -- http://googleasiapacific.blogs...

      Anders Kierulf (3d, creator of SmartGo) wrote: "The peep at move 15: This is usually played much later in the game, and never without first extending on the bottom. AlphaGo don’t care. It adds 29 later, and makes the whole thing work with the creative shoulder hit of 37 ... AlphaGo don’t care, it just builds up its framework, and then shows a lot of flexibility in where it ends up with territory." -- http://www.smartgo.com/blog/al...

      Maybe you start with a philosophical axiom that "a computer can by definition never be considered creative". That's fair enough, but it's not the way that the Go playing community use the word "creative".

    54. Re: Milestone by Your.Master · · Score: 5, Interesting

      It's a trained neural network and other machine learning techniques, not just a bespoke algorithm. It operates specifically by combining old knowledge to create novel knowledge. That's the fundamental of the algorithm.

      It's not obvious why this "creativity" in the context of Go is fundamentally less effective than human "creativity" in the context of Go.

    55. Re:Milestone by LetterRip · · Score: 4, Informative

      The designers at DeepMind didn't expect it to lose a couple of matches and the version of AlphaGo was finalized before the start of the match and thus couldn't 'learn the kinds of moves that a really top go player made'. So you are wrong on all accounts.

      They had a good idea of the playing strength when the offered the challenge, and the playing strength was probably such that they expected at minimum a 3:2 win for the bot.

    56. Re:Milestone by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      I want to see a computer vs computer match!

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    57. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Welll done sir*, well done!

      * I have no idea if you are a sir or not, but it needs to be sir for the meme, so sorry

    58. Re:Milestone by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      Easy way to beat online poker: Have all but one player be automated and communicating the cards they are holding with each other. This is kind of the reason I don't play online poker; you have no way of knowing whether or not your opponents are collaborating with each other.

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    59. Re:Milestone by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Impossible. It won't be a single program. It won't run on a single machine. It will require multiple racks of a high-powered data center.

      Ha ha, you're funny! This is more or less the exact same thing they said about computers in general only a few short decades ago.

      In 10 or 20 years I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a powerful AI was able to easily fit into a toaster-sized box, or phone-sized, or watch-sized.

      Seriously, your average musical greeting card or child's toy has more processing power and memory than the entire Department of Defense had in ~1950. Your phone probably has a million times as much, if not more.

      -

      An anonymous hacker won't have near the resources needed just to boot the thing up.

      And no one will ever own a gigabyte of RAM or a terabyte of hard drive space. Never ever!

      --
      Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
    60. Re: Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How do you know that this algorithm cannot "combine old knowledge to create novel knowledge?" Can you please cite your source? It sounds like AlphaGo may have been coded to do precisely that, albeit within the limited context of Go.

    61. Re:Milestone by SuricouRaven · · Score: 1

      Number of players: Zero

    62. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which one of the two knows they're playing a game of Go?

      Just like Mathematics, it's not about getting the right answer. It's about understanding what you're doing.

    63. Re: Milestone by SuricouRaven · · Score: 1

      The human player is basically a trained neural network too.

    64. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You should expand the number of parallel universes to include virtual particles...every cubic Planck space of the universe capable of branching to another state every unit of Planck time...

    65. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I would guess that a group of players would actually end up doing worse than a single player. Always seems like anything done by committee will be worse than what one of its members could do alone.

    66. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For a number of years, all of the top go programs, including AlphaGo, have used Monte Carlo tree search variations, which is pretty different from classic alpha-beta type tree search.

    67. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is also a strong possibility that the AI has access to analyze every game that Li ever played. It would have a huge database of his tendencies to crunch and can play accordingly. He is just now learning what the AI does. Big difference.

    68. Re:Milestone by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Both of them are hard......unless you know the trick. If you only know the trick to one of them, then the other one is harder.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    69. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You may even lose.

    70. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Funnily enough, the poker sites who store and analyse every hand ever played on their sites have some pretty sophisticated anti-cheating mechnisms that would detect this strategy very quickly. The colluding players would quickly be reported by the human players too, and banned.

      "Oh look, it's those 7 guys who always sit on the same table together again" would be one of the simplest detection algorithms .....

      In other news, you are talking crap about a subject you don't have any real knowledge of. The perfect Slashdot comment.

    71. Re:Milestone by Megol · · Score: 1

      Quantum computing doesn't work like that. Pet peeve - sorry for the interruption.

    72. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well no, the number of possible parallel universes is zero.

      Semantically speaking, the phrase "parallel universe" is a logical contradiction. Universe means "all things taken as one," so if there is some sort of overlapping-but-imperceptible space-time-continuum, that would still logically be part of "the universe."

      I realize the semantic battle here is lost, as the scientific community has thrown semantics to the wind and adopted the language of "multiple universes" to mean "multiple disconnected space-time continua". Even so, the only theory that predicts multiples of these is a variant of string-theory, which is basically religious tripe (zero evidence). So the number is still zero.

    73. Re:Milestone by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      Knowing the probabilities is useful, but what's really useful is being able to figure out what people are holding and/or thinking from their bids. If poker were a matter of getting the winning hand as often as possible, it would be easy to computerize. However, the value of a winning hand is how much other players have been induced to bet on it, and the cost of a losing hand is what the player has bet on it (plus antes etc.). A player that bets in proportion to how likely the player is to win the hand will become predictable, and will win little money on good hands, and wind up giving the party.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    74. Re:Milestone by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      The machine will eventually behave like an AI, and human go players will essentially learn how you think and counteract your particular behaviors.

      Except that the machine is able to learn from past experiences as well. So playing against a "creative" player can be input back into the learning algorithm and like the born assimilated. It's not like AlphaGo is a hardcoded playing style. I'm sure the developers don't even really know exactly how it works since a lot of the internal neural network learning is pretty obtuse. If anything AlphaGo should be able to 'emulate' playing styles of different players by weighting inputs from past games of specific players. Or it can employ all of the playing styles of all of the players mishmashed together. However you slice it, humanity in the long run always loses. If you spend a lifetime developing a novel strategy in secret you can probably use it a handful of times until that becomes part of AlphaGo's learning experience. Then you have to go back to your secret Go Temple to forge a new strategy.

    75. Re: Milestone by FatdogHaiku · · Score: 2

      I agree. Being strong in chips lets you bully weaker opponents, something that would be hard to program in a realistic manner. Last year 6,420 people paid $10,000 each to play in the WSOP Main Event. Most of these players are wiped out on the first round of play, and are referred to as "dead money". That group includes some top players, sometimes being a bully bites you in the ass... again, hard to program optimally. Due to a rule change, the top 1000 players now finish "in the money", as in they won at least a bit more than the $10,000 buy in. Wikipedia did a nice write up, including how well past Main Event winners did this year.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_World_Series_of_Poker

      --
      You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
    76. Re:Milestone by JMZero · · Score: 1

      The "perfect probabilities" are a bit more complicated than people seem to be giving them credit for. This is sort of Nash equilibrium/game theory space, not "do the best move" simple game space. To elaborate:

      You can't build an "optimal" Poker agent in the sense that you return a certain move for a given position (because you could game against that), but you can build a composite strategy that no player can win against. To be clear, your composite strategy would say that, for a given position, you should do X this percentage of the time, Y this percentage of the time, etc... The agent would then choose an outcome randomly based on those weights. The probabilities are chosen such that no strategy wins against you (and any human-implementable strategy would be dominated over time). I'm not saying this is practical, but this is how "perfect probabilities" would work.

      So no, there's no theoretical problem with writing an optimal Poker agent that is effectively unbeatable - regardless of tells or patterns or anything.

      That said, it's very possible that, against a poor player, such an agent wouldn't do as well as a simpler agent that made assumptions about the opponent's play. For example, an unbeatable agent for Rock Paper Scissors can simply choose randomly (with no weighting). They will split games with everyone evenly over time. But if you know your opponent just loves "Rock" for some reason, you can outperform the "unbeatable" agent against that opponent by throwing more Paper.

      The difference is that, for Poker, the unbeatable agent is much more complicated to design - and will not just split games with, but will dominate lesser strategies. Poker is a complicated game, but it will fall the same as Chess and Go did once computers and machine learning progress some more (and once it receives more attention, which it is likely to with Go being essentially broken).

      --
      Let's not stir that bag of worms...
    77. Re: Milestone by LetterRip · · Score: 1

      AlphaGo updates its Policy Network and Value Network based on self play. So yes it does indeed combine 'old knowledge' to create novel knowledge.

    78. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You still aren't thinking this through.

      When the day comes that an ordinary civilian can own sufficient computing power to operate a strong A.I., the processing capacity of the government/corporate owned-and-run A.I.s will be mind-mindbogglingly greater. These A.I.s will have the means, motive, and opportunity to ensure that any run-of-the-mill hobbiest A.I. will never gain control of sufficient resources to make humanity it's bitch.

      So, we still don't have to worry about A.I. making humanity its bitch.

    79. Re:Milestone by KGIII · · Score: 1

      You can't just say that and then not fill in the blanks...

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    80. Re:Milestone by Hussman32 · · Score: 1

      Don't forget pot odds and pot management, much of what you do depends on what others did when you folded before the flop. Sometimes your only mistake is sitting at the table with too many suckers and someone had the hand to take them.

      --
      "Who are you?" "No one of consequence." "I must know." "Get used to disappointment."
    81. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are more variations on the opening in Go than there are possible parallel universes

      The number of possible parallel universes is often enumerated at 10^10^500 by the string theorists.

      So Go is relatively trivial.

    82. Re:Milestone by TheDarkener · · Score: 1

      Tic-Tac-Toe vs. Go.

      The WOPR would have exploded after a few minutes of load from playing Go with itself.

      --
      It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.
    83. Re:Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      If you play those perfect probabilities alone you'll loose because after a while no one will bet you against them.

      No, it doesn't work that way. "No one will bet you" is suboptimal play and will increase the number of wins by the computer. Now, maybe it'll be less take per sucker, but that's because the computer is optimizing for wins not swindling money from poor players.

    84. Re:Milestone by fizzup · · Score: 1

      First, I would like to see time limits for moves eliminated. The computer can be augmented with extra hardware, higher clock frequencies, etc. to render time limits inconsequential for it, but the human cannot.

      First, take away the computer's advantage over humans. Then we will start to see humans win again. Good point.

      Second, I would like to see how the computer fares against a consensus of experts.

      Second, bring in a bunch of the 9th Dan play-by-play commentators who thought that AlphaGo was losing because of the inexplicable moves it was making early in the game. You know, the ones who now say that AlphaGo was playing in a way that is beyond human comprehension. The ones who say that some moves have never been made in the 1000+ year history of the game. The ones who say that the moves will now enter the Go canon. Have them vote on the next move. Another good point.

    85. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Spock's brain easily fits into a toaster-sized box.

    86. Re: Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      Being strong in chips lets you bully weaker opponents, something that would be hard to program in a realistic manner.

      Why would you think that? That sounds to me like something that is rather easy to program. First, it's at best a few parameters for a program to recognize the condition. Second, it results in a rather predictable behavior change of "bullying".

    87. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > > computational resources or time or?
      > What?
      > Those are more or less interchangeable.
      > More compute resources means less time, and vice versa.

      Yeah, but no. I remember the Linear Algebra course and the first lesson is that more computer resources do not mean less time... but, to your credit, everybody says that. Not the older wizards, though. And they write books on algorithms to demonstrate it.

      > The problem is the immense number of possibilities.

      I wonder if we can devise games which can reduce the computer speed calculation advantage. Maybe games even more intuitive?

      I think it's possible because we are indeed quite fast for image processing (for example).

    88. Re:Milestone by shawn2772 · · Score: 1

      Both of them are hard......unless you know the trick. If you only know the trick to one of them, then the other one is harder.

      Ah, right, just need the "one weird trick" and you're golden.

    89. Re:Milestone by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Well, with Go, it's more like two weird tricks. That Monte Carlo algorithm they used is kind of weird, I wouldn't have expected it to work.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    90. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you really want to compare computers directly to humans, why not limit the power consumption of the computer to that of a human, say 100W? You could even give it 500W to be competitive. Then, given time limits the human player will likely still come out ahead for a long time until we really improve computing efficiency.

    91. Re:Milestone by larryjoe · · Score: 1

      First, I would like to see time limits for moves eliminated. The computer can be augmented with extra hardware, higher clock frequencies, etc. to render time limits inconsequential for it, but the human cannot.

      First, take away the computer's advantage over humans. Then we will start to see humans win again. Good point.

      If it's core to the evaluation of the computational algorithm, keep the limitation. If it's a rule based on human vs. human competition, it should be examined. The latter type of rules weren't meant to give computers an advantage but rather to hinder humans in the name of competition.

      Second, I would like to see how the computer fares against a consensus of experts.

      Second, bring in a bunch of the 9th Dan play-by-play commentators who thought that AlphaGo was losing because of the inexplicable moves it was making early in the game. You know, the ones who now say that AlphaGo was playing in a way that is beyond human comprehension. The ones who say that some moves have never been made in the 1000+ year history of the game. The ones who say that the moves will now enter the Go canon. Have them vote on the next move. Another good point.

      I doubt that any single one of the commentators is better than Mr. Lee. However, a bunch of them with a consensus opinion (and, of course, assuming the ability to communicate with sufficient time) is possibly better than Mr. Lee. This power of the consensus opinion is seen in many types of prediction games, such as for picking the winner of football games, stock performance, etc. Maybe it would also work for Go.

    92. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And anyway "string theorist" is really just code for "religious zealot."

      No data means it's not science.

    93. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Meh. Go players and fans of the game have touted for a while how much inherently better their game is than chess because no computer had ever beaten an expert at that game. To which I always replied, that's because they've never bothered to try. Now they have, and the computer is kicking that ass.

      This is no surprise to me, or anyone else who understands basic computing fundamentals. Any problem that can be solved by a human or group of humans can also be solved by an appropriately built and programmed computer.

      Next, computers will conquer checkers! :)

    94. Re:Milestone by ThePyro · · Score: 1

      And it's not just the number of moves. Go also differs from chess in that there's not a quick evaluation function to decide who's winning. With Chess, you can just count the value of the pieces that have been captured or not. Queen: 9 points, Rook: 5 points, etc.. But Go requires a deeper (read: slower) analysis just to figure out which stones are still alive.

    95. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Go read every previous slashdot article about computer chess, and it's post after post about how "chess is nothing but raw number crunching, no computer has a chance of beating top Go players because the game is so much more deep."

      Lo and behold, here we are. Those people are now eating their crow. Some others, apparently, are playing the role of the petulant child and just keep moving the goalposts so they can diminish the achievement in some desperate attempt to put humanity on top because they somehow feel threatened if a machine is better at something than people are.

      When AI becomes indistinguishable from human intelligence in every way, will you still be squawking that it's "just a well-tuned set of heuristics"?

    96. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are only a very small handful of algorithms that have been developed for quantum computers, and not for lack of trying. They are not like classical computers where you can program solutions, or at least take a stab at, just about any problem you can break down to basic logic and fit it within reasonable memory and time requirements. At this point it would be hard to predict what future algorithm development progress there will be.

    97. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No data means it's not science.

      There are plenty of data, like Lorentz invariance and that operators are unitary, etc. The issue is not lack of data, but lack of data that separates different theories, and no clear simplest theory that can account for all of the current data.

    98. Re: Milestone by FatdogHaiku · · Score: 1

      Then the program would get suckered repeatedly, just like novice players are... Knowing when to do it and when not to is not a binary state, it depends on which player(s) you are pushing against and how strong your actual cards are along with a (sometimes very) educated guess as to when you are being sucked in... Daniel Negreanu is very good at that technique and finished 11th of 6,420 (for $526,778) in last years WSOP Main Event. If it was easy to figure out, thousands of people would not be "dead money" on day one of that event. Many of these players are highly educated and well versed in game theory, in fact the top players are an astounding array of professionals including programmers and analysts... along with thousands of people who believe they are really good at poker. In a game of imperfect information logic can be a liability if it is predictable...

      --
      You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
    99. Re:Milestone by reve_etrange · · Score: 1

      Having a competitive Go engine capable of beating a 9-dan player is huge.

      That it is possible at all - yes. However, the Go engine was trained on many more games than a human can play in a lifetime. No doubt a 1000-year-old Go player would also defeat a 33-year-old. It would be interesting to see how AlphaGo compares to a human master when trained on a humanly possible number of games.

      --
      .: Semper Absurda :.
    100. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But can it beat 10 Dans?

    101. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      AlphaGo was finalized before the start of the match and thus couldn't 'learn the kinds of moves that a really top go player made'.

      AlphaGO was trained using a database of professional GO games. Lee Sedol's games were certainly among them. Just read the paper that the people from Deepmind published on Nature.

    102. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Milestone for go player too.
      If computer become a tool to study go, go skill in human player will improve and eventually the "intuitive" part of go will disappear in favor of pure rational reflection.

    103. Re:Milestone by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

      Hi, I'm Talkie, Talkie Toaster. Would you like some toast?

      --
      Wanna buy a shirt?
      https://www.redbubble.com/people/stealthfinger/shop?asc=u
    104. Re: Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      Then the program would get suckered repeatedly, just like novice players are...

      Except that it would not. You aren't speaking of any poker program, but rather of an optimal algorithm, which is a very different beast. There is no suboptimal strategy that will on average win against it (unless you already start with advantage, such as a larger pot). When predictability is a problem, then it isn't predictable enough to beat.

      If it was easy to figure out

      Needless to say, the optimal strategy is not easy to figure out. It might not even be expressible with the information contained in the known universe (though IMHO I think that's unlikely), but it does exist.

    105. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "I wonder if they can be paired against each other (or themselves) and learn from playing each other? "

      This is actually what AlpgaGo does - they reported, that after learning all available go games, it continued by playing different versions of itself

    106. Re:Milestone by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      I have to say after trying to watch the Sedol / AlphaGo match my first though was not "I wish this game would go on longer".

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
    107. Re:Milestone by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      If you play those perfect probabilities alone you'll loose because after a while no one will bet you against them.

      No, it doesn't work that way. "No one will bet you" is suboptimal play and will increase the number of wins by the computer. Now, maybe it'll be less take per sucker, but that's because the computer is optimizing for wins not swindling money from poor players.

      But then you've removed the bluff, and increased pot that comes with winning when you're bluffing, which is suboptimal play.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    108. Re:Milestone by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      Serious Chess programs haven't been using simple brute force for a couple decades now. I'm not talking about ChessMaster here. It's not all about the number of possible moves. Once you're out of the opening book, heuristics become much more important. Chess professionals used to beat brute force programs by playing strategic positional games, instead of tactical, because programs weren't good at understanding positional play, while they crushed people by brute force in tactical games.

      FWIW, I played tournament chess for about ten years back in the 80s, and postal chess when I lived overseas, through USCF.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    109. Re:Milestone by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      You can't just say that and then not fill in the blanks...

      I _hi_k h_ j_st d_d.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    110. Re:Milestone by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      You can, but that's a very basic, and often inaccurate way to score a game. Simply put, I could checkmate you with a pawn, and be down a queen and a rook, but using the method you pointed out, you would have been "ahead" by 14 points. To better understand the game, "points" can be given for things like initiative (essentially, which side is the aggressor), how many squares a piece is attacking (a bishop blocked by a piece on it's diagonal would score less than one that's controlling squares across the board), control of the center is more valuable (generally) than the fringes of the board, etc.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    111. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Worse, if you spend a lifetime developing in secret you actually lose the advantage other players, and AlphaGo have of seeing what happens when your style runs into something else. AlphaGo "knows" that it's style doesn't have some hideous fatal flaw that half of all serious players can find instantly, because it keeps beating serious players. But your hypothetical secret Go Temple style wouldn't have that guarantee. So you'd wheel it out and almost immediately you're seeing novel stuff. You might lose first game, despite the novelty.

      One of the experts commentating for this series explained that no serious Go players open with centre moves but they don't actually know for sure that centre moves are wrong, they have just never found any that work, so they focus on the (seemingly good) star points and nearby positions. Eventually a machine might master a style in which centre openings crush everybody. Or, it might not. The chances are, after so many years of humans playing Go, not.

      In the same way, we can imagine that an unpopular Chess first move like 1. g3 could be at the heart of some amazing machine strategy that crushes Black 80% of the time even if we never "solve" Chess completely. But probably not.

    112. Re:Milestone by Shortguy881 · · Score: 1

      Arguably, the simple collection of electronic neurons understands Go very well, but lacks any way of expressing it. Is it thinking Go thoughts?

      --
      Brilliance without wisdom, power without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.
    113. Re: Milestone by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      You are assuming that in order to beat a human, they have to have an advantage in all relevant categories. What matters is a win, not a pretty win.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    114. Re:Milestone by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

      Who said anything about "affording" the processing capacity? Any sufficiently-advanced AI would be perfectly capable of creating a botnet to host itself.

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    115. Re:Milestone by braindrainbahrain · · Score: 1

      See Figure 3 in the linked paper below "Reinforcement Learning in Board Games". According to the author's estimate Go is practically off-the-scale in terms of game tree size and possible states when compared to Chess. https://www.cs.bris.ac.uk/Publ...

    116. Re:Milestone by braindrainbahrain · · Score: 1
      Agreed. Even better is when the computer learns to master a gameon its own without being imparted with any human knowledge of the game (except for the rules).

      See "Evolving neural networks to play checkers without expert knowledge", K. Chellapilla and D. Fogel, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 1382 – 1391, 1999.

    117. Re:Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      But then you've removed the bluff, and increased pot that comes with winning when you're bluffing, which is suboptimal play.

      What makes you think it's suboptimal play? Bluffing is not something you only do against weak players.

    118. Re:Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      But it does work that way because when playing probability alone if others rarely bet you then you build no stack.
      Then eventually there will be that hand that it has the 80%+ chance on versus a mammoth stack.
      Big stack takes the 20% chance call because it only cost them 10% of their stack and they potentially KO a player.

      If you play probability alone you will get to mid game watching the dead money go to better players. The they will out stack your probabilities through sheer abuse of their stack.

      Amatuers think that probabilities save them.
      They are merely donors to the winning pot.

      Don't confuse being able to beat your mates with maths with the notion that it's actually some sophisticated strategy.

      If you only bet probabilities you will not have sufficient 'good enough' hands to play to keep up. If every time you do no one plays then you're screwed.

    119. Re: Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      Incorrect. I never made any such assumption or claim.

      I said that a specific weakness is too egregious to be successful, which is near the opposite.

      Playing probabilities is not merely 'a relevant category', it's a fundamental fail that is so easily seen and broken by other players there's no way to victory.

      There are a few basics you simply cannot exclude that aren't a matter of tactic or style.
      There's a lot of variation in aggression and risk vs chip gain, and in that respect you'd be right, but if you pay to probabilities you lose so much chip speed that you fail to meet the minimum threshold for being competitive.

      There is a minimum cut off, because there are blinds.
      If you can't out pace them, you *cannot* win regardless of *all* other 'relevant categories'.

      It's like attempting to win a marathon that's longer than the distance you can run.

    120. Re:Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      If you play probability alone you will get to mid game watching the dead money go to better players. The they will out stack your probabilities through sheer abuse of their stack.

      I have to admit that this is an interesting aspect which doesn't hold for most Nash games. But on the other hand, it's not something that's particular hard to program either. And once the easy money is out of the game, I don't see much more room for advantage from that.

    121. Re:Milestone by epine · · Score: 1

      That Monte Carlo algorithm they used is kind of weird, I wouldn't have expected it to work.

      Monte Carlo bidding algorithms in Bridge were showing surprising strength back in the mid nineties. In addition to modelling uncertainty from the other participants at the table, it protects the analysis from becoming overly fixated on sharp features.

      I wouldn't say that Monte Carlo works so much as I'd say it's a surprisingly effective remedy for a mode of dysfunction that ought to be regarded as blatantly obvious, but for some strange reason many people choose not to see it that way.

      Perhaps Monte Carlo might also help humans take a broader perspective on engineering problems. No wait, there's an entire book about how easy it is to teach feeble humans about how better to assess complex uncertainties: Tetlock recent book on Superforecasting.

      Hint: If the problem is set up so that the behaviour of Israel can be depicted as black or white (name your poison), some large subgroup of otherwise strong forecasters are incapable of constructing themselves a Israel judgement-free alternative view.

      My lord, humans are stupid as bricks about some things.

    122. Re:Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      But then big stacks play off on each other, so in order to avoid them bullying you, you also lose most opportunities to recover the ground.

      Good players often take more risks as the game goes on specifically because the probabilities narrow.
      Mid to late game starts requiring calculated losses and risks, and if you play probabilities then you lose to that. Will you push in your 80% AA pre flop? What if three people call behind?
      That's the thing about poker. You're not playing to win a single game because that's not reasonable or possible. Luck factors will overwhelm any single outcome.

      You're playing to win *more games than you lose*.

      A trash player is rolling 60% return. They will get there occasionally through luck. They might even play a good hand in the mix. But over many games that 60% return is a 40% loss.
      A great player is rolling a 110% return. That still means luck pops them out a lot. It means bad beats 10 games in a row. It means the occasional gamble you know is the wrong call but you can't resist it. But after 50 games your average return trends to positive.

      It's not like chess or go, you don't play then decide who is better and that is that. It's more like a casino where you bring your own dice dependant on your skill level. If you're good enough then you weight the averages in your favour, if you're not then you enjoy your wins as you gradually spend your bankroll.

      When you play casino games it's not the single outcome that decides, it's the weight of many. The house always wins in the end because it has a small probability advantage spread over thousands of games.

      Poker bots simply cannot maintain that consistency because doing the maths isn't enough.
      Because the good players have weighted their dice in different ways that matter more than playing the maths can come close to.
      Because it's not the average of individual hands that makes success, but the average of outcomes that require game threatening risks to achieve.

      Because weighting your coin to give heads 60% of the time by playing probability isn't useful if your payout condition
      Is 10 heads in a row. What you'd really want is a coin that gives the same result as the prior flip 80% of the time instead. You get streaks of tails losing, but also a much much higher chance of 10 in a row. Yet if you counted the flips over a long period of time it'd be just a 50% chance of heads. Win conditions change the relevance of probability!

      Winning 600 out of 1000 hands still earns you nothing if you needed to get 100 of those hands into the one game. You need a cluster of success to make the money, not merely be better in most hands you play.

      That's why poker isn't yet a solved AI problem. Even when it is, players will adapt their games and the meta game will change and new bots will be needed. We see this effect in online video game competition already, where meta-game matters just as much or more than the quality of your individual play.

      The person that solves poker, they'll be rich.

    123. Re:Milestone by koreanbabykilla · · Score: 1
    124. Re:Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      Good players often take more risks as the game goes on specifically because the probabilities narrow. Mid to late game starts requiring calculated losses and risks, and if you play probabilities then you lose to that. Will you push in your 80% AA pre flop? What if three people call behind? That's the thing about poker. You're not playing to win a single game because that's not reasonable or possible. Luck factors will overwhelm any single outcome.

      You're playing to win *more games than you lose*.

      In other words, precisely the grounds where probabilistic strategies (such as your "calculated losses and risks"), particularly, the optimal one will succeed the most.

    125. Re:Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      You've skipped the whole rest of the post where it explains why probabilistic strategies do not work, and where meta-game is often equally as important.

      There is no optimal based on probability, you are not properly understanding the maths and game.

    126. Re: Milestone by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      I think you are misinterpreting the claim. The claim is that you don't need a highly optimized chip strategy. If you have a novice-level, relatively risk averse chip strategy game (few big wins and losses), and a "perfect" probability game, you can probably beat a human, absent a strategy that effectively makes other players effectively confederates to help the expert.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    127. Re:Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      Yes, I did, because you didn't actual reject probabilistic strategies. You just called them other things.

    128. Re:Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      It is, but it implications are different from what people think. In particular, this is not a sign of a working AI at all, it is a sign that special-purpose, non-intelligent algorithms can beat general-purpose human beings at very specific things without actually exhibiting intelligence in any way. That is not very surprising when you really think about it. Excel can beat the best accountant on the planet easily when it is perfectly clear which numbers go where and what to calculate, yet nobody would accuse Excel of being intelligent.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    129. Re:Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      There is no thought in Watson. None at all. That is why it was surprising that it performed so well. The thing is that Watson can do a few specific things very well, none of which require intelligence. The other telling thing was that when Watson did not find the answer, it was completely and utterly lost. Actual strong AI would have been able to make a reasonable guess even for those cases.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    130. Re: Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      No, there's no misinterpretation, that was exactly what I thought you meant.

      I'm saying that that is fundamentally untrue.
      A risk adverse chip strategy will lose almost always even to novice players because their risk taking will bias probabilistic estimates!

      The problem isn't about the necessity for a highly optimised chip strategy, it's that a prefect probability game is inherently incompatible with ANY basic chip strategy that can even match the average player.

      By committing to a perfect probability game you make *all* other winning strategies impossible.

      It's not a missing component in an ideal strategy that other components can make up for, it's a component that literally makes you lose. It's not a "this didn't contribute to a win", it's a "this directly contributes so much to losing that you can't win".

      Obviously accounting for variance in games - everyone wins sometimes out of luck - this strategy basically guarantees that unless every player you meet is a clueless novice, and you're also lucky, you lose.

    131. Re:Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      The machine has no intelligence at all. "Insight" is a key requirement for intelligence. Li just needs to learn its limits and then he will wipe the floor with it consistently. This whole thing is a set-up and the current outcome is as expected by those paying for the whole thing.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    132. Re: Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Not so. Not at all. And you seem to be completely unaware of the extreme differences between natural neural networks and artificial ones. In addition, smart Human beings can do a few things that neural networks cannot and will never be able to due to fundamental limitations.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    133. Re: Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      CS 101: Algorithms can only combine data and generate more data. They cannot process or create knowledge, because that requires understanding and interpretation.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    134. Re:Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      So AlphaGo played differently from expected. That explains this outcome. Li obviously did not have a previous history of how it plays and could not prepare for this specific opponent. Under similar circumstances, chess masters sometimes get beaten by players far, far weaker.

      This whole thing us a publicity stunt, nothing more.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    135. Re:Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      Is this the part where you acknowledge that you aren't familiar with the term meta-game?

      Any purely probabilistic strategy is countered by meta shift.
      Oh, I know, you're the guy that inevitably always suggests putting in a random number element to make it 'unpredictable'! No one ever tried that!

      Let me guess, you got to the bit in maths where you applied probabilities to things and the world made sense, but not to the bit where you learn when probabilities don't work?

      Are you that guy in every AI discussion that insists that with enough compute power, any problem is probabilistic!

      It's a moving target.
      The dynamic is more like rock, paper, scissors with a few extra orders of magnitude.

      But hey, since you seem to be under the impression that your inadequate understanding of the maths is gold, go make the AI.
      I mean, it's not like no one else has tried and this is a *known block* that you so bravely declare solvable.

      It's clear that you must be better at this than me and all the other people that properly understand the domain. ;)

    136. Re:Milestone by khallow · · Score: 1

      Is this the part where you acknowledge that you aren't familiar with the term meta-game?

      Multiple hands of poker don't make a meta-game.

    137. Re:Milestone by KGIII · · Score: 1

      *chuckles* 'Snot very nice of 'em. Now I wanna know what I missed.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    138. Re:Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      No they most certainly do not!
      But why on Earth would you think they do? That's not the meaning. Gosh, this is awkward now

    139. Re:Milestone by blindseer · · Score: 1

      There was a time I would have believed you but not any more. I now know some of the limitations of the technology we have available to us and how quickly we are approaching physical limits.

      Here's an example, my brother works on two way radios and he's responsible for the cooling systems on them. He was showing the latest and greatest radio to the customer and they were not impressed. What used to take an entire room in electronics quickly shrunk down to where it could fit in a suitcase. These radios stayed pretty much at the same size for years now, but the customer was expecting this shrinking of the technology to continue. I don't know how small of a box he was expecting but we can't shrink them down ad infinitum. Why? Because it takes power to communicate, that power *WILL* turn to heat. You can make it more efficient, you can use more durable materials, and you can make it smaller, but at some point that heat load will lead to temperatures that can melt steel.

      Forget an AI, just having something as powerful as a modern 12 core processor in the size of a wristwatch and it will burn you. Perhaps in theory the AI processor could fit in the size of a wristwatch but it would be in a case the size of a refrigerator for the cooling systems, power supplies, and I/O interfaces.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    140. Re:Milestone by shawn2772 · · Score: 1

      The thing is that Watson can do a few specific things very well, none of which require intelligence.

      What is intelligence? For that matter, you claim there is no "thought" in Watson... what is "thought"?

      We don't actually know, yet. Thought is computation... is that all it is? Dunno. We have our own experience of perceiving ourselves as thinking, is that all it is, computation plus introspection?

      You can't say there's no intelligence or thought, because we don't actually know what those things are. What Watson and AlphaGo do is probably at least a part of what is involved in "general intelligence". I suspect that as we learn more about what intelligence is and is not, we're going to learn a huge amount about our own brains and what our limitations are, including many things which we don't have the context to perceive.

    141. Re:Milestone by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      I wasn't sure if my blanks were obvious enough..."I think he just did"

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    142. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      (sounds like a confession)

    143. Re:Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      There is nothing in Watson that can have a thought. It is not an entity, just a collection of parts.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    144. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Like the I Ching... Go, remnants of a computing era before China stepped in and did not understand... See how WELL you can make a dumb computer produce Chinese text by simply smashing its LCD screen...??? They say they did it five thousand years ago, right? After or before they extinguished (sic) Dragons? I wonder... English just did not just popped out as a language, did it?

    145. Re: Milestone by SuricouRaven · · Score: 1

      Still a neural network. Just a network of incomprehensibly greater complexity and incorporating many element behaviours with no analogue in current artificial networks. A neural network nonetheless.

    146. Re: Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Mystical bullshit and completely uninformed about the facts. Pathetic.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    147. Re:Milestone by shawn2772 · · Score: 1

      There is nothing in Watson that can have a thought. It is not an entity, just a collection of parts.

      As is your brain.

    148. Re:Milestone by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 1

      There was a time I would have believed you but not any more.

      Your belief isn't required for technology to advance beyond your wildest dreams. I remember when Kennedy said that the US was going to go to he Moon...and there were a lot of people who laughed and laughed....but a decade later we were in fact walking on the Moon.

      In 1930 the idea of flying in a chair at 36,000 feet at 600mph was utterly ridiculous and no one really believed it would ever actually happen.

      For thousands of years it was impossible for a human being to go up a hill at say, 40mph, now we don't even think about it.

      -

      I now know some of the limitations of the technology we have available to us and how quickly we are approaching physical limits.

      And this is where you're stumbling. You've grown up with the technology of your time and so you (naturally) consider the current foreseeable limits to be "hard limits" with no possibility of going beyond them. Wait until atomic-level memory is commonplace, where a SIM-sized bit of quartz or silicon can hold a million times the data in the Library Of Congress. It'll happen eventually, it's pretty much inevitable.

      -

      Perhaps in theory the AI processor could fit in the size of a wristwatch but it would be in a case the size of a refrigerator for the cooling systems, power supplies, and I/O interfaces.

      With current technology, you are correct. But there is nothing to say that a solution involving a very, very low-power memory won't be found. I'd bet my life it will come to pass, someday.

      "X-rays will prove to be a hoax." - Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883.

      "A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere." - The New York Times, 1936.

      "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." -Albert Einstein, 1932

      "We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy." -Simon Newcomb, Canadian-born American astronomer, 1888.

      "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

      ALL of these people were absolutely correct given the technology of their times.

      The first commercially available transistor was about the size of a pencil eraser. Now a 45-nanometer Penryn chip from Intel holds 820 million of them. You almost certainly have hundreds of millions of transistors in your pocket right now, if not more. Do they need a suitcase-sized cooling unit?

      Are there physical limits? Of course there are, but we haven't begun to come anywhere near close to actually hitting them. We just don't have the technology to overcome them yet. Come back in 50 years and see what's up, I bet you'll be pleasantly surprised. :)

      --
      Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
    149. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Understand this: there is no profit in making A.I. self-interested. Mull that over until it really sinks in.

      Sorry, bro, really sorry to be the one to point that out, but:

      a) "profit" is meaningless in this discussion. Some names for you to think: Gepeto, Michelangelo etc.

      b) don't anthropomorphize machines, they don't like that...

      c) you're sounding like a speech by a scientist at the start of a Terminator movie.

    150. Re: Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Neural networks were originally modeled after the-then theoretical model of the brain cell function, so the "extreme differences" statement is quite extreme.

    151. Re:Milestone by KGIII · · Score: 1

      What an odd-ass publication. Thanks! It's remarkably more interesting than it should be. :/

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    152. Re: Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do yourself a favor and remove the word "bespoke" from your vocabulary.
      (The only people who actually use that word are ones who just learned it.)

    153. Re: Milestone by Gibgezr · · Score: 1

      Of course, we teach beginning computer scientists lots of stuff in 101 courses that isn't actually true, like "there is never a good time to use GOTO" etc. In this case, the algorithm has great understanding and interpretation of the play in Go.

    154. Re:Milestone by KGIII · · Score: 1

      Oh, I got it. Still not nice of him. 'Cause, from my understanding, that's exactly why it's so important and what is the major difference between quantum computing and what we have now.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    155. Re:Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Oh? And do do I have self-awareness? And do not give me the pseudo-mystical bullshit about it being an "emergent property" or and "illusion".

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    156. Re: Milestone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      It has nothing of the sort.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    157. Re:Milestone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One problem that would take a lot of research, is that humans sometimes act irrationally. And to one extent or another, at the end of the game, it does matter in some part or another how the human player PLAYED. So the computer can think deeply and feel confident in it's moves, but those moves are going to have to assume some part of the player response, and in this I can only suggest this bit of demonstration from star trek:

      https://youtu.be/YbHtzqCge_8

      Compute THIS!

      Lol

    158. Re:Milestone by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      as it's able to assume both states simultaneously

      FYI, a point on a goban has three possible states : black, white and unoccupied. Depending on your ruleset, you may need to add a 4th state, for "currently unoccupied but has been occupied".

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    159. Re:Milestone by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      And do do I have self-awareness?

      I don't know, do you? Can you prove you do?
      Can you prove that I do or don't?

      Of course not. Nobody can determine if another entity is self aware or not, making the whole question moot and ultimately pointless.
      And no, your bald assertions about such things proves absolutely nothing.

    160. Re:Milestone by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      When AI becomes indistinguishable from human intelligence in every way, will you still be squawking that it's "just a well-tuned set of heuristics"?

      Yes, they will.
      Eventually they will die and future generations will grow up simply accepting that these machines are sentient, and the whole question will seem quaint and silly.

    161. Re: Milestone by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      In addition, smart Human beings can do a few things that neural networks cannot and will never be able to due to fundamental limitations.

      You've made this claim dozens of times in other forums, yet you never seem to be able to define what these "fundamental limitations" are.
      Truth is, the existence of such limitations is an article of faith for you. Without that, your whole precious-snowflake image of yourself would collapse.
      You're a machine. Face it.

    162. Re: Milestone by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      Mystical bullshit and completely uninformed about the facts. Pathetic.

      I'm glad you have admitted this about your beliefs.
      Acceptance is the first step toward realization.

    163. Re:Milestone by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      "Insight" is a key requirement for intelligence

      A term that neither you, nor anyone else, has been able to define.

    164. Re: Milestone by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      I'm saying that if you can program it to bet like a novice (who would have a list of rules for betting that's maybe two paragraphs), the fact that you know the deck like Rain Man more than makes up for the advantages an expert has in regards to betting. Yes, if you make it so risk averse that it shits the bed if it doesn't get a royal flush right away, then it will lose. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm saying that it just shouldn't go all in on a pair.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    165. Re: Milestone by F'Nok · · Score: 1

      But now you've changed your point to something that I never argued against in the first place.
      Statistics surely do have to inform your betting, but I was arguing against playing purely on statistics.
      You're still operating under the false assumption that it's your cards that make the plays work, but that's quite a small part of it.

      Here's an rather extreme (and rare) example of not even looking at your cards.
      http://www.pokerlistings.com/v...

      Yes, you do need to inform your play based on statistics, but my claim was that a perfect statistical player is in fact so bad they cannot win. I was not arguing the false dichotomy that therefore any of use statistics is invalid!

  2. Welcome to by Avarist · · Score: 4, Funny

    something something.... overlords... something something....

    --
    In Capitalist US, the commerce controls the Government.
    1. Re:Welcome to by GLMDesigns · · Score: 0

      In Mercantilist / Crony-Capitalist America commerce controls the Government. In Free Market America neither controls the other.

      When Socialists, who of course know better than anyone else how to run their lives, starting instituting more and more controls over commerce it then set the stage for commerce using government to further their needs. Which in turn lead to Crony Capitalism. Who would have thunk it?

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    2. Re:Welcome to by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your AP Economics class is cancelled because teacher has a D&D competition. Mom's calling you for tea.

    3. Re:Welcome to by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      Private sector unions are part of the free market. What free market person would not agree that workers can band together and set conditions for hiring their labor? Refusing to work (strikes) are part of the free market. That is absolutely part of the free market.

      You can belong to a food coop, each individual hating corporations. That would be part of the free market.

      A coop created and directed by government employees is NOT part of the free market.

      Think about why a free market person (not a corporist) would have issues with labor unions bargaining with elected officials over their compensation.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    4. Re:Welcome to by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      re employer not allowing union help. OK. That's part of the free market as well.

      The unions in the 1890s and early 20th C would have won many "battles" if the government didn't step in on the side of companies. We would have built a more rational society if that had happened.

      Re monopolies - they are very short lived without government intervention. Think about it. Monopolies loose money (and a lot of it) forcing their competition out of business. Then they have to make it up. As the price returns to break even customers (who were happy at the lower prices begin to grumble) then prices have to go far higher to make up for the lost of revenue driving others out of business. Then as the prices skyrocket new competitors enter the fray as they can make an easy profit at the super high price -- and then as supply increases prices drop.

      It's very rare for a monopoly to exist for long without government intervention on their behalf.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    5. Re:Welcome to by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      Trolling. Listen to Milton Friedman. Or was he trolling as well?

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
  3. What about Magic the Gathering? by xevioso · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    This is why games like Go and Chess pale in comparison to more modern games that rely upon language and some amount of randomness. Both Chess and Go are incredibly boring (to me, of course) and more recent games, especially euro-style board games offer much more in types of complexity and more importantly, fun.

    I'd love to see a computer regularly beat a human being in a game of Magic the Gathering, block-constructed. Won't happen.

    1. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, it is true, humans sure did beat players of Magic the Gathering Online Exchange... ...out of their computer generated money.

    2. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      An interesting difference between MTG and games like Go or Chess is that since MTG is a card game, there's "luck" involved. Meaning that if you draw poorly then you can lose to a bad player just because he drew his combo already and you have nothing to stop him. Of course playing many games will eventually settle the issue of who's the best, but MTG does have a substantial luck factor.

    3. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Fun" and "Magic the Gathering" in a single post. Only on /.

    4. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Computers will never beat humans at pokemon cards!

    5. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      They tried to program a computer to play Magic The Gathering, but the computer immediately received a wedgie, and was stuffed into a locker.

    6. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by vux984 · · Score: 1

      I was going to bring up Magic the Gathering as the next frontier as well.

      Chess and Go's complexity arise from sheer combinatorics. But all the information about the current game state is disclosed; and the initial setup is a known quantity.

      MtG tosses all that out the window. Not only do you have to play YOUR deck well, and adapt to whatever your opponent is doing. You also have to construct a deck from all the possible playing pieces.

      And the rules themselves are subject to change as the game plays; as the cards interact and modify the rules.

      I'm not saying an AI can't play it, or play it well, but it is a new challenge that I haven't seen one do well.

    7. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by PvtVoid · · Score: 5, Funny

      AI's will also never best you at sitting on the couch in your parents' basement eating cheetos and watching anime. Your skillz are safe.

    8. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Lisandro · · Score: 1

      Poker is often cited as an example of "imperfect information" game, where odd calculation alone will not help you win. There's already a fair amount of research on it.

    9. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by arth1 · · Score: 1

      An interesting difference between MTG and games like Go or Chess is that since MTG is a card game, there's "luck" involved.

      Many games that also involve chance have a substantial number of tactical choices, and have up to recently been done better by humans than computers. Backgammon, for example.

      Poker is also hard for computers, as they cannot read the player nearly as well as a human can.

    10. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by gman003 · · Score: 1

      Luck, and also partial information.

      In chess (and I think in go, although I only skimmed the rules), both players know the entire state of the game at all times. Not so for MtG - there is knowledge both players know (cards on the battlefield, in a graveyard or in exile), only one player knows (contents of your own hand), and knowledge neither player knows (order of cards in the library). And, being Magic, there are ways to gain partial knowledge of even the zones you normally know nothing about (scrying your own library, or forcing an opponent to reveal their hand).

      Computers would probably be better able to make use of the partial information, through perfect recall, but it's also historically been a weakness of AI. The metagame might be a difficulty if it plays Modern, Legacy or Commander - with tens of thousands of cards possibly in a deck, being able to know which ones are likely to be in an opponent's deck based on the other cards you've seen is important.

    11. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While games like M:tG, Flux, and Munchkin would be very entertaining to see a computer chunk through against a human player, they are all currently lingual and thus (even mildly) subjective. To properly handle that, the on-card rules would need to be simplified and have a computational equivalent that the computer can use to build a mesh of "rules in play."
      On the other hand, once a variant of those games is made that can have a coherent "rules in play" array written for it, a computer will surpass even many of the top-tier human opponents because implementing overly complicated rule conditions is one of the tactics.

      As another factor, those are all random-potency games. You have tactics and some say in how you play, but often enough it comes down to what cards you draw. Even the best computer program without additional knowledge cannot reliably surpass a human in a game of mixed skill and chance. (a computer vs. human match of blackjack where both are aware of the number of decks in play may favor the computer as time for a redeal approaches just from the ease of card-counting in software)

    12. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by vux984 · · Score: 1

      Poker is also orders of magnitude simpler than Magic the Gathering. For starters the deck is a known quantity, and the rules are essentially static.

      If an opponent brings out a "winter orb" for example, it doesn't directly threaten you, and it affects both players equally... but it changes the mana curve; and presumably his deck is built to be effective with that more limited mana curve. So know you have to evaluate whether you can adapt to the reduced mana, or whether you should expend artifact removal to get rid of it, and what that costs you vs holding your limited artifact removal for an even greater threat... and then there are the odds that he may have more winter orbs... does he have just one in his deck to throw a monkey wrench out at you that he knows he can "live with"... or is his entire deck designed around the relative advantages he can get from having an orb in play... so now you have to consider what you've seen of his deck so far...

    13. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Lisandro · · Score: 1

      What you mention happens on Poker as well. The rules are simpler, yes, but those nuances are still present - for example, you have to be careful when you bet because you're both guessing what the rest of the players are up to and potentially revealing your intentions in the process as well. Bluffing is not easy to model on AI.

    14. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      Go itself is... diverting. I usually make statements about Go when solving universal problems like poverty or education because it's a good frame-of-reference for literally everything.

    15. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Whorhay · · Score: 1

      MTG in my mind is pretty limited. Your deck is going to have a finite size, and hand size is limited. Some cards can recycle used cards to prolong play but there is a relatively predictable end of play in terms of turns. Most deck builds will have a key strategy or two for winning which establishes a simple order of play. The only thing that really makes MTG difficult to play is the same factors that are at play in other card games where players hold a hand, namely luck of the draw and bluffing. As a result a computer is likely to only ever be as good as human players instead of far outpacing them. The only exception I can really think of to that would be a computer that had true lie detection abilities, although this is probably an impossible technology.

      As it is I can think of a number of decks I played as a child in the 90's that would be very easy for a computer to play. White, black, and green creature decks would be simple to code for. Blue counter spell/denial and Tim decks would be relatively easy though require perhaps a little more work. Red direct damage would probably be the simplest to code.

      One of the things that actually disappointed me the last time I played MTG was the prevalence of cards apparently designed with the intention of ending a game in under half a dozen turns. Maybe it's my rose tinted glasses but I don't remember that being as common when I played as a kid. The last game I played was with maybe half a dozen players each playing a different deck that angled for luck of the draw to win the game in three to five turns.

    16. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Poker is also hard for computers, as they cannot read the player nearly as well as a human can.

      When the computer is playing against a human the human will have the same problem with reading the computer.

    17. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Lord+Crc · · Score: 1

      MTG in my mind is pretty limited.

      You might want to revise that view: http://www.toothycat.net/~holo...

      In the discussion on this site I assemble a Universal Turing Machine from Magic: the Gathering cards.

    18. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Goragoth · · Score: 1

      Well apparently the DeepMind team are already working on having the AI play games with imperfect information. I wouldn't be surprised if they announced similar show matches against top poker players in a few months or so. After all this is nothing like DeepBlue, which was created from ground up to play chess and do nothing else. This is more or less the same system that they trained to play a bunch of Atari 2600 games a while back. With some tweaks they can sit it down to train on a few hundred thousand rounds of poker from online sites, then have it play a few thousand tournaments against itself and then they have an AI that will probably play (online) poker incredibly well.

    19. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by gman003 · · Score: 1

      There's elements of partial information in both, but the specific information GP was referring to was deck construction. In poker, you know all 52 cards in the deck at all times. In Magic, you don't "know" what 60 cards your opponent has, although you can usually make some assumptions based on what other cards they've played.

      For instance, if my opponent's first turn consists of shocking in a blood crypt and suspending a rift bolt, I can tell you essentially every card they'll be running because rakdos burn is a well-solved archetype. After seeing just two cards, I can tell at least five other cards that they will be running a full playset of. There might be some innovation but at least half of the deck will be a known factor. Similarly, if the very first card an opponent plays is Glimmervoid, I can tell exactly what their strategy is, and know what kind of cards they will be playing (although not with nearly the certainty of burn - affinity has fewer cards that are clearly dominant for that strategy).

      That's not to say every deck is rote and memorized - even at the pro level, there are dozens of viable strategies. I play an off-meta deck, so my classic turn-one play of forest into llanowar elves doesn't clearly lead to a single strategy. From that, and a not-that-lucky guess that I'm running mono-green, an experienced player could probably make a guess that I'll be running leatherback baloths and strangleroot geists (which I am), but few have guessed I run khalni hydra or predator ooze, and nobody expects me to run veridian zealot or unyaro bees, even in the sideboard.

      There are literally tens of thousands of cards that *can* show up, and hundreds more are added per year. Would an AI be able to narrow down from that to the cards that work well together in the same deck?

    20. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the computer could beat humans at Magic the Gathering, then it would simultaneously win and be a loser. Any good AI should pre-calculate the possible outcomes and realize that the only winning move is not to play.

    21. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by sexconker · · Score: 4, Funny

      As long as they never take our waifus.

    22. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by gman003 · · Score: 1

      "One of the things that actually disappointed me the last time I played MTG was the prevalence of cards apparently designed with the intention of ending a game in under half a dozen turns. Maybe it's my rose tinted glasses but I don't remember that being as common when I played as a kid."

      In the first official Magic tournament, fully half of the decks entered were able to win before the other player had even taken a turn (this lead to several early rule changes). Out of the three major 60-card formats, the fastest is Legacy, which allows almost any card ever printed, followed by Modern, which allows only cards from 8th Edition and onwards, and which frequently bans cards that allow decks to reliably win before turn four. Standard, the slowest format, and the currently most-popular one, allows only cards from the past three blocks (effectively the past 18 months).

      Your glasses seem pretty rose-tinted to me. Maybe you were just a worse player when you were a kid?

    23. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From the descriptions in this https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/202wd3/i_participated_in_one_of_the_biggest_magic_the/ it would rather crash from the bad air at a gathering of "professional" players. Magic the gathering seems to be literally a game for the unwashed masses.

    24. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      but the computer immediately received a wedgie, and was stuffed into a locker.

      So that's why Microsoft's tablets have those touch covers!

    25. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Wow, that's closer to passing the Turing test than I realized.

    26. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Whorhay · · Score: 1

      I didn't play until Fallen Empires, I think. But I was aware of the problems with the first edition, Black Lotus, Moxs and such. Those issues were seemingly mostly fixed by the time I started playing and I don't remember them cropping up much for the few years I played. I do seem to remember some kind of infinite mana combination that was resolved for tournament play by insisting that the player actually manipulate and declare each card/action for every step and iteration of the loop, thus limiting how infinite it could actually be via the play clock.

    27. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by LetterRip · · Score: 1

      Top humans playing top humans at poker play GTO - game theoretically optimal. The best computer players can already beat the best humans at heads up limit; and probably will be able to beat the best humans at heads up no limit.

      The best computer players can absolutely crush anyone but the top 10 or so human players, and the next couple of years will be able to beat and maybe even crush the remaining players.

    28. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      Fully agreed, but it actually goes even further than that. The order of cards in the library is unknown to both, but the specific cards in it are fully known to one player (but usually not the other; in some situations you'll know the opposing deck already). As you play against an opponent in multiple games, you'll learn their deck, which will give you some knowledge of what they have. As you watch their play, you can observe some of their strategy and therefore be able to predict things about the rest of their deck (and their hand), especially if you are aware of the current meta. Then there's things like drafting, which not only has its own strategy but also provides information about the strategy of the people around you, which can later be leveraged as partial (and usually unreliable) knowledge of their deck.

      M:tG often (though not always) has far fewer moves available than something like chess, but the state of the game is *far* more complex, even if there were perfect knowledge. Since there isn't perfect knowledge, and since many elements of the game either actively exploit this lack or provide one-sided mitigations for it, the state of the game is not only extremely complex but also completely probabilistic. It's a mess.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    29. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nobody plays limit any more. Also, please provide some evidence backing up your claims? You can't? Yeah, I know.

    30. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      nerd the bo bothering . any intelligent computer would turn its nose up at playing!

    31. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by LetterRip · · Score: 1

      It would be pretty easy to have an AI that can win at MTG (or variants such as Hearthstone).

      1) get lists of example decks that are used. Do millions of self play with each deck. Also do random decks. Find which combinations of cards work well together.

      2) From this you can then begin predicting from seen/played cards what will be in villains deck and to design custom decks.

      3) Also you can cluster decks by how they play (Zerg/fast decks, slow decks, etc.)

      4) Then based on the deck group pick your optimal counter strategy based on what deck you are playing.

    32. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We already have MTG offerings in the form of video games, and the AI is fairly competitive. However, the video games tend to keep the decks limited in card selection, and I have no idea whether the actual AI is a single engine, or multiple engines designed specifically around the decks they play. I suspect that each deck has it's own AI, so these AI's are not generic MTG AI's but instead are custom tailored.

      I've toyed with the idea of creating a generic MTG AI, but frankly the task is daunting for a single individual, especially since I know very little about AI, and would have to do a deep dive to get my AI chops up to snuff.

    33. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You just described information you've gleaned from experience. Otherwise known as training. That's what these systems do but they train on vastly greater numbers of games than a human possibly could.

    34. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Might want to keep those kinds of statements to yourself when talking to people IRL. The hubris displayed in suggesting you've even theoretically solved poverty or education is not pretty.

    35. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Sperbels · · Score: 1

      This is why games like Go and Chess pale in comparison to more modern games that rely upon language and some amount of randomness. Both Chess and Go are incredibly boring (to me, of course) and more recent games, especially euro-style board games offer much more in types of complexity and more importantly, fun.

      Indeed. And I'll just go ahead and say it now, a computer will never master Tic-Tac-Toe.

    36. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by vux984 · · Score: 1

      MTG in my mind is pretty limited. Your deck is going to have a finite size,

      Do the math. The number of possible decks is absurd. maybe around 12000^75th (including sideboard). And you need 2 of those to play. Obviously that includes decks with no land, all land, 75 copies of a banned card etc.

      But even if you limited it to "legal plausible decks" The number is still incomprehensibly high.

      And then a *game* is pairing of two decks, with random draws. The number of possible different games given just 2 decks is incredibly high. Then multiply THAT by the number of decks each player could use.

      It is truly enormous.

      As it is I can think of a number of decks I played as a child in the 90's that would be very easy for a computer to play. White, black, and green creature decks would be simple to code for. Blue counter spell/denial and Tim decks would be relatively easy though require perhaps a little more work. Red direct damage would probably be the simplest to code.

      Nope. Microprose attempted it in the 90s and the result was a great game, but the AI's needed HEAVY handicaps to be competitive, had to be scripted how to play their decks, and they were still extremely weak once the player had enough cards to construct a deck that wasn't utter shit.

      The AI in particular wasn't adept at countering alternative victory conditions -- 10 poison counters, or getting "decked out" (running out of cards to draw). It was also not adept at dealing with things like "the rack" which damaged it if it didn't maintain a specific range of cards in its hand, or cards like "Cursed Land" that dealt damage to him during his upkeep. It couldn't strategize at all around decks that stole its cards and used it against it, etc, etc.

      Wizards various Magic the Gathering games out 2010-2016 now, are similarly EXTREMELY limited; and are only competitive because they've basically tuned the AI for each deck it has, and also limited the player to very specific archetypes and it "knows" how to play against each of them.

      I can think of a number of decks I played as a child in the 90's that would be very easy for a computer to play.

      Its not really. Unless its a straight vanilla creature deck and you have no options but to attack each turn. But MANY decks require far more strategy to play. Simply knowing which of his creatures / artifacts / enchatments etc you NEED to deal with (assuming you CAN deal with them) is crucial.

      Even with pure creatures, predicting the outcome of a battle, and knowing how many you need to hold back is huge.

      If your opponent is throwing ball lightning around, you need to keep enough guys back to absorb a ball lightning hit, ... based simply on him having a card in his hand. Or you need some other method of dealing with it... unsummor, or if you've got something with first strike... then you just need to hold him back.

      Secondly, by the time you draw your opening hand, half the game has already been played. Selecting what cards go INTO a deck, into the sideboard, and which cards from the sideboard is a huge part of MtG.

      and hand size is limited.

      Sure, unless you've got any of several cards that alter the size of your hand, or the one that skips the discard phase (effectively removing the limit entirely); OR the opponents hand. Or impose penalties for having fewer or more cards than a certain number...

      The last game I played was with maybe half a dozen players each playing a different deck that angled for luck of the draw to win the game in three to five turns.

      Sure trick/combo decks that require a lucky draw exist and can be fun to play. But the top pro tour decks are designed to win consistently. Obviously any deck can be screwed with a bad draw or an opponents lucky draw, but statistically good.

      If the deck "goes off" and just "wins" on turn 3 on draw in 10 it might still be fun in casual multiplayer etc. But a "good deck" goes off reliably.

      There are also other formats such as sealed, where you build and tune a deck from a limited pool of cards as part of the game.

    37. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Guppy · · Score: 1

      As long as they never take our waifus.

      But sir, what happens if an AI becomes the waifu?

    38. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by arth1 · · Score: 1

      When the computer is playing against a human the human will have the same problem with reading the computer.

      While true, poker is generally played with more than two participants. If there are two or more humans, no matter how many computers are also participating, one of the humans will be better at reading the other humans than they are at reading him, and gains an advantage that the computers don't have. In the preliminary rounds, this skews the odds towards a human winning more cash than computers.

    39. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by vux984 · · Score: 1

      any intelligent computer would turn its nose up at playing!

      LOL. If it *spontaneously* came up with that line of reasoning...

      I'm a winner!!
      Winners don't lose!
      Losers do things that aren't worthwhile!

      If I can't win then I'd be a loser.
      If I were a loser, I'd do things that aren't worthwhile.
      If I'm not playing it and I'm a winner, then its because its not worth playing!
      And If I played it then I'd be a loser too.
      Therefore I won't play it, because losers play it, and I'm a winner!!"

      That AI might pass the Turing test. :p

    40. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by RivenAleem · · Score: 1

      Krieger-san?

    41. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      Well the oracle text is what should be used as there has been attempts at clarifying things and making them uniform across cards.

      --
      Time to offend someone
    42. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by vux984 · · Score: 1

      they are all currently lingual and thus (even mildly) subjective

      Not really so with MtG, at least not anymore.

      MtGO exists as an official implementation that can enforce the card rules and resolve card interactions, with current Oracle text and all official card interaction rulings etc laid down.

      And new blocks are implemented as programmed code in MtGO as they come out.
      There's (likely?) a few edge cases that haven't been covered yet, but if it comes up a ruling will be made, and that will be that.

      In terms of the AI, for it to play the game at a human level, it should need to parse the rules, card text, and card rulings into "the underlying rules" itself. It shouldn't simply be "given" the MtGO engine on a silver platter to evaluate interactions. But nevertheless the MtGO engine exists as an official reference point, and proof that a program is possible.

      To properly handle that, the on-card rules would need to be simplified and have a computational equivalent that the computer can use to build a mesh of "rules in play."

      This has been done. the MtG rules need not be simplified.

      but often enough it comes down to what cards you draw

      Of course. Luck is a factor. But it is a game of statistically improving your odds of getting a good hand. A deck that can go off in turn 4 and win, but requires a very specific draw that rarely comes up is a lousy deck. Deck building is the 'meta game'.

        A deck that win 96% of the time against one particular opposing archetype but gets trounced 90% of the time against another is not a great deck either; or maybe it is a good choice, if that 'other' deck is extremely unlikely to be present at the tournament. I guess that's part of the meta-meta-game. ;)

      Because building a deck that is objectively "good" is one thing; but tuning it further based on what you know about your opponents may result in a deck that is less objectively good but out performs against your oppoents.

      I had a friend that pretty much always played with big stompers; so I tuned my deck with that in mind; another developed a sliver fetish for a year or two so I always had extinction and other hose-a-creature type-cards around. Few of my friends ever fielded white-weenies, so I didn't worry whether my builds were particularly strong against them. etc. I tended to be drawn to various blue/black builds more than anything else, and I know my friends specifically included counters with that in mind.

      At the pro-levels, "preferences" like that aren't likely to guide deckbuilding since they're more pragmatic about winning over having fun, but even there there exists a meta-game as they try to predict what other players will be running, and fine-tune or even select an archetype accordingly to try and tilt the odds.

      . Even the best computer program without additional knowledge cannot reliably surpass a human in a game of mixed skill and chance.

      Of course it can: statistically speaking. Sure it'll get mana screwed from time to time just like anyone else, but if its winning matches consistently over a period of time, its not just getting "lucky".

      Blackjack is just a poor example, because the skill component is very limited and "optimal" play is pretty well defined. You aren't even playing against your 'opponents'; just the dealer really; who generally has very little choice in his actions. And you really have practically no tactical options.

    43. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      https://twitter.com/RoboRosewater

      Approaching MtG from the DESIGN angle.

    44. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Keybounce · · Score: 1

      One of the things that actually disappointed me the last time I played MTG was the prevalence of cards apparently designed with the intention of ending a game in under half a dozen turns. Maybe it's my rose tinted glasses but I don't remember that being as common when I played as a kid. The last game I played was with maybe half a dozen players each playing a different deck that angled for luck of the draw to win the game in three to five turns.

      Yes, there was a bunch of crazy stuff in the first tournament, because it did not limit you to 4 of a kind, and the worst cards were crazy killer OP.

      Mox's, for example: a zero cost spell that acts like a land, essentially. Big deal? Well, if you have enough of them that you can draw 3 or 4 on your opening hand, then yes. Channel, so you can turn your life points into extra mana, and pump a fireball at your opponent? Yes, but only if you have something to jumpstart you, like free mana.

      Once all that was fixed, and you had revised/unlimited? Your "killer cards" generally cost 9 mana to play. Good deck building was 40% land. By your 4th turn, you've seen about 10 cards, and about 4 lands -- now you are only adding new lands every other turn. So getting 9 lands is about 15 turns.

      What is the benefit of going second? One extra card. That extra card being an extra land doesn't help you until about turn 5, so the game has to last long enough to make up for that "I'm behind the first 5 turns".

      This works just fine as long as the game play is slow.

      Now, green has mana ramp (always has). In exchange for either focusing on weak units or specials, you can get that mana out faster -- but you'll be weak against cheap attacks. And cheap attacks will be weak against a blue or white turtle (walls / eventual big units) -- and that is weak to a mana ramp.

      Surprisingly, once you got rid of the worst abusive cards, the original M:tG had a very nice rock/paper/scissors in deck building.

      Out of the three major 60-card formats, the fastest is Legacy, which allows almost any card ever printed, followed by Modern, which allows only cards from 8th Edition and onwards, and which frequently bans cards that allow decks to reliably win before turn four. Standard, the slowest format, and the currently most-popular one, allows only cards from the past three blocks (effectively the past 18 months).

      I attempted to get back into magic for M15. What I found was a core set of very high-powered fast cards if you could collect/buy enough, along with expansion after expansion of crazy increase in power, plus even if the base set was balanced, it wasn't balanced in regard to the previous set that was still in play -- and the combination of last generation's expansions plus this generation's expansions led to a lot of "win on turn 4" decks, and a huge cost in time, money, and study to learn what cards were out there, buying the cards you needed, or just go online and download the net's "top decks".

      (By the way, I've got a lot of useless M:tG cards -- where can you sell them nowadays?)

    45. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by gman003 · · Score: 1

      (By the way, I've got a lot of useless M:tG cards -- where can you sell them nowadays?)

      I buy from TCGplayer.com, they let you sell too but I don't know how good that is.

      (I'm ignoring the rest of your post because I didn't play seriously back in the earliest days, and you haven't played enough in the recent days, so both of us are probably just going to wind up making fools of ourselves. But I find it very hard to reconcile your "the game used to be a hell of a lot slower!" claims, against the constant "the newest expansions are too weak and slow!" complaints I hear from Vintage/Modern players, or my personal experience with Standard being much slower than Modern.)

    46. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Keybounce · · Score: 1

      When I played, they were called type 1, type 1.5, and type 2.

      Basically, the one that was max 4 of a kind, 60 card minimum (up from 40), none of a restricted high-power set, when high-powered (or high-damage creatures) cards cost a lot of mana -- that was slower than the more recent time I played.

    47. Re:What about Magic the Gathering? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      or it might figure All those AI sexbots and I still can't get laid due to playing magic the gathering.

  4. AlphaGo vs AlphaGo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How long would a game last with AlphaGo playing against itself?

    1. Re:AlphaGo vs AlphaGo by fisted · · Score: 1

      Until the clocks run out, presumably.

    2. Re: AlphaGo vs AlphaGo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is actually how they trained it after using databases of games between strong players.

    3. Re: AlphaGo vs AlphaGo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      One of the instances of AlphaGo would win and the other would lose, of course. That is, in fact, how they trained this program. By having it compete against itself billions of times and learning from its own mistakes and successes simultaneously.

    4. Re:AlphaGo vs AlphaGo by PCM2 · · Score: 1

      How long would a game last with AlphaGo playing against itself?

      Actually, it's already been tried. To create AlphaGo, researchers first had the machine study tons and tons of human games. The neural net then continued to learn by playing against itself a few million times.

      --
      Breakfast served all day!
  5. Singularity? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Because, like, beating a human at Go is important stuff, man

  6. Call in Arnold by Prince+Vegeta+SSJ4 · · Score: 1

    Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, March 10th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.

  7. The number of positions is irrelevent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The merit function, which is an object evaluation of the current position, and its gradient are all that matter. If Google has a good merit function, they can't lose.

  8. In the year 2216 if man is to survive.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Robots will be having debates on whether or not those pesky bald monkeys actually created them. They will be digging up old electronic waste and claiming that they evolved from the iPad and iPhone and the assembly line robots.

    There will be debates about what to download to their children.

    There will be the "Save the Humans" organizations to keep robots from indiscriminately killing the bald monkeys that inhabit their attics and basements. Human traps will be available at Robo*Mart.

    And I have been watching waaaay too many Futurama episodes on Netflix. They took Doctor Who off! Bastards!

    1. Re:In the year 2216 if man is to survive.... by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      Shouldn't that be 2525?

  9. Date clarification by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Sedol will battle Google's AlphaGo again on Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday.

    Note that for many people in the western hemisphere, the days are actually Friday, Saturday, and Monday.

    Live streams are here.

  10. The computer on the other hand... by blindseer · · Score: 4, Funny

    While the loser of the match was struck silent by the defeat the computer just... will... not.. stop... talking. GAWD! How annoying.

    Does the computer not know either pity or remorse for its opponent?

    --
    I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    1. Re:The computer on the other hand... by thegarbz · · Score: 3, Funny

      While the loser of the match was struck silent by the defeat the computer just... will... not.. stop... talking. GAWD! How annoying.

      Oh it runs on Windows 10?

    2. Re:The computer on the other hand... by blind+biker · · Score: 1

      The computer is what is usually referred to as a "bad winner".

      --
      "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
    3. Re:The computer on the other hand... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Does the computer not know either pity or remorse for its opponent?

      It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop. Ever! Until you are dead.

  11. Deepmind vs conventional chess algorithm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Would be interesting to see how this new approach fairs against the best chess algorithms.

    AlphaGo vs DeepBlue.

    1. Re:Deepmind vs conventional chess algorithm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      An amazing idea. They'll be playing on a board half chessboard half go board, I guess.

    2. Re:Deepmind vs conventional chess algorithm by Chatterton · · Score: 1

      I think that this approach would probably reduce the computing power necessary to go as deep as the current best algorithms. The neural network used by AlphaGo are there to select the best places to search for a position and how deep to search for each of these best places. From there you still use conventional algorithms best appropriate for the game (MonteCarlo for Go, and I suppose some kind of min/max for Chess). For Chess the NN would do the prunning in the min/max search.

  12. Stunning achievement in cosmology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Can we get more details about DeepMind's proof that the number of atoms in the universe is finite (and not just the observable universe)?

  13. Cat got my tongue, again by fluffernutter · · Score: 0

    Is it really that amazing that a computer could be better at a game that has so many possible moves that it defies the human mind, but one that can be calculated entirely? Really it was all a matter of having enough capacity for the calculations. More impressive would be a computer consistently winning a game where a high degree of human psychology factors into the success of it.

    --
    Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    1. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Lisandro · · Score: 1

      It is impossible to calculate all possible Go moves, even for Google. In fact, it is impossible to do so for even a infinitesimal fraction of them.

    2. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      Yet they seem to be calculating enough for it to become obvious what the best chance is for a win.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    3. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by giorgist · · Score: 1

      Sounds like a moving target ... which is fine, its a journey that is being traversed

    4. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by PCM2 · · Score: 1

      Is it really that amazing that a computer could be better at a game that has so many possible moves that it defies the human mind, but one that can be calculated entirely?

      The whole point of the exercise is that Go is a problem space that cannot be calculated entirely (at least not efficiently enough to win a game in a reasonable amount of time). Cracking the problem required advanced machine learning techniques (what some people call AI).

      --
      Breakfast served all day!
    5. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      Ok, I thought it was just about calculating as far as you can and then heading towards a grouping of board positions that look the strongest taking into account the probability of being able to reach those positions. Then repeating until the game is over.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    6. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pretty sure humans will win every time at pictionary. :)

    7. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Lisandro · · Score: 1

      They're not. AlphaGo is basically an AI making very educated guesses and then calculating moves.

    8. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because to win the game, at least against a human (and a damn good one), you don't need to exhaust the moves, which is theoretically possible but infeasible. Instead, you make better evaluation of the situation than your opponent do. In human-vs-human gameplay, only for limited periods / locations is an exhaustive search becomes necessary for the players. During most of the game stages the battle is about who has the better approximate appraisal of the situation.

      And AlphaGo has damn good knowledge of how evaluate the situations due to its learning from a massive corpus of games -- both the historical ones that were used to bootstrap it, and the randomly generated ones it has played out against itself, millions of times, on a daily basis, without tiring, without losing a second of concentration.

    9. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by William+Baric · · Score: 1

      The computer only need to do better "calculation" than the human player.

    10. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are grossly underestimating the meaning of the word "infinitesimal".

    11. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      Right.. AI to me is actually understanding what is going on in the human player's head. That's why I think winning at poker would be a more difficult problem. As long as the computer was prevented from counting cards, since a human cannot count cards.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    12. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      I'd like to see a computer win consistently at poker, assuming it is forced to play by the rules such as not being able to count cards. Unless you do something like count cards or use a system, which is technically also illegal, it is a lot about reading the other players.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    13. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by raftpeople · · Score: 1

      Yes, the computer is using stats (neural network) to categorize/reduce the search space and make decisions based on that, which is what humans also do with their neural network, it's all stats.

    14. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      There is so much wrong with this comment. First of all, counting cards isn't a thing in poker - the deck is shuffled after each hand and typically you only see community cards. You're thinking of blackjack. Second, computers are crushing at poker. Online bots take millions out of the poker economy against average players, and the best teams consistently beat top limit hold'em players. Top no-limit players can barely hold their own, and it won't be long until they can't. There are poker machines in Vegas you can play heads-up against, that collect no rake. They rely on skill to beat you.

      Poker is beaten by computers, for most practical aspects.

    15. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Counting cards is a strategy for blackjack, not poker.

    16. Re:Cat got my tongue, again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd like to see a computer win consistently at poker, assuming it is forced to play by the rules such as not being able to count cards. Unless you do something like count cards or use a system, which is technically also illegal, it is a lot about reading the other players.

      Can you even count cards in poker? For Texas Hold'em, you only get to see what is in your hand (2 cards) and the 3, 1, 1 cards on the table. The deck is shuffled between hands so there is no running deck like in black jack (the game where card counting is a thing and will get you kicked out of casinos). You can (and most players do) use probabilities to work out whether you have a good chance of winning (and reading other players helps refine those probabilities). Computers are good at working out the probabilities but they are not so good about reading people.

      Poker has a lot of chance in it - unlike chess and go. You could be the number one ranked player in the world yet lose to a random joe due to a string of bad hands. You can attempt to bluff your way to a win but in the long run, without the occasional decent hand, you will lose. I used to play poker a fair bit a few years ago and there were a few times where I got knocked out by attrition from the required blinds as I had no cards to do anything with.

  14. No, Mr. Lee by slashping · · Score: 1

    No, Mr. Lee, it is the computer that is speechless.

  15. Are you sure it is not in karate ? by Laxator2 · · Score: 1

    I hear anything Go-es there when it comes to a dan number 9.
    Anyway, as a professional player, he is a Go-ner !

    Bazinga !

  16. The beta will beats him even faster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is just the Alpha version. The beta will be better we promise.

  17. the problem by Triklyn · · Score: 2, Interesting

    he's playing against it like it's a human opponent, he's playing against it like he's a go champion, he needs to play against it like he's a programmer. I would be curious as to how it deals with mirror play, or wildly suboptimal plays. I would wonder if it's overfit to go played well.

    1. Re:the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I would wonder if it's overfit.

      It now appears that the human masters, and their expertise of heuristics, are a product of overfitting.

      The last time people saw a player freeing the Go community from massively overfit learning, it was Go Seigen.

      AlphaGo is another.

    2. Re:the problem by LateArthurDent · · Score: 5, Interesting

      he's playing against it like it's a human opponent, he's playing against it like he's a go champion, he needs to play against it like he's a programmer. I would be curious as to how it deals with mirror play, or wildly suboptimal plays. I would wonder if it's overfit to go played well.

      Ever tried that with a chess program? Doesn't go over well. A wildly suboptimal play just makes the tree search look really good for the computer. It doesn't get emotionally distraught because it thinks you've seen something it didn't. It just sees better valued moves.

      This Go algorithm is even more complex. It's a neural-network algorithm combined with tree-search (I don't play Go, but as I understand it, the number of permutations are so high, tree-search alone isn't feasible). This neural network was trained using input from previous tournaments, using games against expert players, and using games against itself. I don't think you can throw anything at it that will break it. Computers have officially become better than humans at Go. In a decade or so, when the really good Go programs can run in your phone, you'll be seeing the same type of cheating attempts going on that currently plague chess competitions.

    3. Re:the problem by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      he's playing against it like it's a human opponent ... [instead] he needs to play against it like he's a programmer

      You mean download a dodgy API from the Web that allegedly does close to what the customer needs, shoe-horn it into the app, give it to the naive intern to debug, and leave early for the day?

    4. Re:the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In mirror play you already except that your opponent is stronger, and it is a trick that is doomed to fail.
      As soon as the player being mirrored is tired of it, (s)he plays on the center spot.

    5. Re:the problem by atticus9 · · Score: 1

      This was actually what Lee Sodol did in the first game, where he made some overplays and unusual moves to try and throw it off on the assumption that it only knew how to handle familiar moves at a professional level, but he later blamed that for his defeat since it put him in a bad position.

    6. Re:the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I did try exactly that with a chess program in 1995. I knew it was beating me, and that it would win if I didn't turn the tables on it. However, knowing that a computer's ability to play chess was based solely on move trees, I started making the most ridiculous, most absurd moves possible (sacrificed my queen to take a random pawn on the outskirts of the board, etc.). The computer took so long to find an optimal response to these massively unexpected moves, I won because it ran out of time. Granted, that was due to the limited processing power of the day, but the point is, computers are only mimicking skill, they don't actually possess it. Remove their raw processing power advantage, and they're nothing more than children with a cheat book.

    7. Re:the problem by lars_stefan_axelsson · · Score: 1

      Well, what you did was force the computer to reevaluate the game tree from every move, as the moves you made had been pruned from the tree the computer actually evaluated.

      So, of course, against a computer which has to rely heavily on pruning to get the tree down to manageable size in order to search ahead enough plys, then going "off script" as it were, is a strategy.

      And this strategy was often tried early on in computer chess, hence the old saying that "computers don't understand sacrifice". However, Moores law put that strategy to bed pretty early on in the game, as computers quickly became fast enough to search through both deeper trees, and perform less pruning. It is after all a strategy of quickly diminishing returns. Stupid moves are called "stupid" for a reason, and it's a fine line to thread to try and make "stupid" moves that are dumb enough (i.e. locally so unattractive) that they are ignored from computer analysis, but smart enough that they can actually lead to a stronger position later. Sacrificing you high value pieces early on in the game, with no gain to show for it, will mostly lead to a quicker end-game that you'll lose.

      --
      Stefan Axelsson
    8. Re:the problem by GroeFaZ · · Score: 1

      Remove their raw processing power advantage, and they're nothing more than children with a cheat book.

      What do you think would happen if you did the same to a chess player and took away his/her brain power in the same way? Personally, I suspect that such a player would instead go to slashdot and start posting mindless, bio-chauvinistic drivel.

      --
      The grass is always greener on the other side of the light cone.
    9. Re:the problem by Triklyn · · Score: 1

      tired is a strong word to use.

    10. Re:the problem by Triklyn · · Score: 1

      the thing though is, it's not a brute force machine, it's a neural network with heuristics.

      take it somewhere you and it have never played before, and it will have 0 "creativity"

  18. To put it into context by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is the standings of Go pros by Elo score. Lee is currently the 4th highest.

    And this will be what the FINAL Go standing will look like, before it is taken over by AI this year.

    Basically from now on it will never be possible for any human to beat an AI any more.

    1. Re:To put it into context by Chatterton · · Score: 1

      Lee Sedol is actually 3rd and recently won against the 2nd but that's not the point.
      Should it be a bad thing that human can't beat an AI anymore? As long as there is not AI how think that it should kill off these puny humans, I have no problem with that fact. On the contrary, I am welcoming that fact. There is so much place where humans do not so bad work where an AI could do to the same thing but with far better results (I am thinking about a certain company doing transport like UPS where the routing of the trucks is done manually in 2-3 hours and where an simple AI find 10 to 20% shorter/faster routes in a matter of seconds).

    2. Re:To put it into context by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At least Go AI players can fight each other to make it more watchable on espn at 2 in the morning

  19. Apparently not actually speachless by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    when you read the summary

  20. Even if he does lose.. what about... by BlueCoder · · Score: 1

    What about if you gave him time to get use to his opponent over six months? A human can learn and adapt. Will this "AI" adapt at least equally? Indeed what would happen after six months? I predict the man would definitely win.

    1. Re:Even if he does lose.. what about... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A human can learn and adapt. Will this "AI" adapt at least equally?

      Please be reminded that so far, everything has been demonstrating the opposite: this machine learns much faster than humans.

      And please also be reminded that Mr. Lee, 33, is past his prime time as a Go pro. His learning ability is not improving.

    2. Re:Even if he does lose.. what about... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Due, I got some bad news: AlphaGo is a neural net. And neural nets are designed specifically to learn and improve over time. It would probably adapt quite well.

    3. Re:Even if he does lose.. what about... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And if the programmers continue to tweak the ai to let it adapt as well?

  21. Dumb Champion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Humans make mistakes, so can computers. He should have played the full games instead of resigning. Maybe the computer AI really sucks at making those last winning moves and he could have exploited that.

    1. Re:Dumb Champion by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      Computers are much, much better at brute force look-ahead than humans, meaning any advantage the computer gains is only going to get bigger. I understand what you are saying, chess masters were able to beat early chess AIs by figuring out how far ahead the computer was looking, then devising traps that only had consequences occurring more moves in the future than the look-ahead. Why wouldn't that also work for go? I've played the game, but not well enough to understand the limits of look-ahead well.

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    2. Re:Dumb Champion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think the Go champion knows when he's beaten better than you do.

    3. Re:Dumb Champion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The "winning moves" were made in the first 30 minutes of the game. Everything after that was just follow-through.

    4. Re:Dumb Champion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, I meant the programmers could have messed something up so it's worth playing through to the end. Not that I think there are some underlying bugs, but when you're in a best human vs best machine type match you should stick it out.

    5. Re:Dumb Champion by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Humans make mistakes, so can computers. He should have played the full games instead of resigning. Maybe the computer AI really sucks at making those last winning moves and he could have exploited that.

      Not impossible - as you say, people do make mistakes. But the likelihood of achieving significant gains that way is negligible.

      In a real game (clearly, you don't play) which people are playing to completion (say, because you've both got 20 minutes on the clock, and the lunch break is coming up before the next round of the McMahon), you'll typically trip through the yose cooperatively, with the only really interesting points being deciding when one player will surrender sente to the other, and when it comes back. And by that point, you both know what - to within a couple of points, the outcome is. If the score is closer than that, then you carry on fighting to the end. But if you're 20 points down, and your final attempt to kill an enemy group fails ... you know you've lost. you might make it a 15 point loss, not a 20 point loss, but typically that has no effect on the outcome of the tournament.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  22. In related news by wildsurf · · Score: 1

    AlphaGo 'Speechless' after 2nd Win vs Human Go Champion

    --
    Weeks of coding saves hours of planning.
  23. Flawed Logic by JohnStock · · Score: 1

    "Because the number of possible Go board positions exceeds the number of atoms in the universe, top players rely heavily on their intuition." An algorithm, be it in silicone or a human brain can easily work on infinitely sized data sets. I'm not sure why they are implying that intuition has to be used instead of algorithms in such a scenario.

    1. Re:Flawed Logic by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      It is impossible to evaluate every possible permutation of the individual spots on the board, so brute force look-ahead can't be done using present computers. However, human players don't do brute force look-ahead of every possible permutation piece-by-piece; they see larger patterns in the pieces and act accordingly. The solution is to make the AI see the game more like the way humans see it, "intuition" is probably the wrong word for that. More like learning what parts of a pattern are important and what parts aren't, and weighting them accordingly. Hmm... I wonder if they actually used a learning or genetic algorithm? Seems like you'd need it to play millions of games against humans to learn well, in which case the internet would be an enabling technology.

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    2. Re:Flawed Logic by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      "intuition" is probably the wrong word for that. More like learning what parts of a pattern are important and what parts aren't,

      Isn't that exactly what "intuition" is?

  24. Laugh by koan · · Score: 1

    Another human devalued by a machine, get used to it.

    --
    "If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
    1. Re:Laugh by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      Get back to me when computers create better porn than humans! (I.e. computers only excel in realms that can be defined well using mathematics.)

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    2. Re:Laugh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh no you didn't. Wow. The porn on the interwebs is sooo good now. I can't imagine how good it would be with computer assistance--it would never get old. On the upside, it would put the current "experts" out of work if it were even more expert. That might be a win for humanity.

    3. Re:Laugh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Get back to me when computers create better porn than humans! (I.e. computers only excel in realms that can be defined well using mathematics.)

      Well, first you would have to define what makes "better porn". Which, ironically, would be the hardest part of getting a computer to make better porn as fetishes (aka what gets someone off) are as numerous as there are people - hence the internet rule 34. Once you have that defined then it would be just a matter of creating the simulation to create the resulting porn...

  25. Re:Milestone - Brute Force by neoRUR · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Yes this is a big thing. But it is only showing that computer programs are better at pattern recognition and searching then humans in a constrained environment. Go is more complicated than chess, but the computer in both cases is playing the best optimized move that it can and it can definitely search much deeper in the game tree than a human can and in a faster way. The program has no intuition because it is only simulating a certain part of the reasoning process that we use. Humans have the ability to bring in much more external experience and apply it to the problem. Even a 2 year old child could play GO to some level. He can always try a different tactic that the program has not be trained on, think outside the box. Demis Hassabis is a smart guy so I'm sure there will be more to come from this GO program.

  26. My chess computer by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 4, Funny

    My chess computer beat me every &^#@! time, but it was no match for me at kickboxing.

    --
    Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
    1. Re:My chess computer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/02/robot-kills-worker-at-volkswagen-plant-in-germany

    2. Re:My chess computer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      but it was no match for me at kickboxing.

      That gives me an idea Boston Dynamics could work on...

    3. Re:My chess computer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Chessboxing ftw!

  27. It's not like Go is the ultimate game by Dunbal · · Score: 1

    Well it might be good at Go, but I wonder if it can play this game. Or a good game of chess?

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  28. How did they do it? by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

    My understanding from 20 years ago was that the geometric progression of possible game permutations was so large that you couldn't possibly brute force search very many moves ahead, so AI players used book openings and brute force lookahead for end game, but were pretty useless for the middle part of the game. How did they conquer the law of large numbers and solve this? Human players see patterns composed of large numbers of pieces rather than individual pieces, I think that's how they handle the complexity. Did they figure out a way to have the AI "see" patterns larger than individual pieces? I'd actually like to know what strategy they used to make this beat human champions in a problem set that was the epitome of "can't be solved by brute force".

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    1. Re:How did they do it? by dsmatthews9379 · · Score: 1

      You don't need to map the entire landscape if you combine knowledge of the major maxima and minima with axioms for searching for local detail. It is this combination, a map of rule parameters rather than a complete map of the territory that makes the difference.

    2. Re:How did they do it? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      And, when you do this, you need to make sure you're hitting enough of the actual maxima. It's trickier than it looks.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  29. Re:Any AFRICAN Go champions? by dsmatthews9379 · · Score: 1

    There is as much genetic diversity on the African continent as there is across the rest of humanity. The population of just Asia is about 4.5 times larger than that of all of Africa. Think about those two facts for a while. They may help you to make more sophisticated and relevant observations in the future.

  30. Set number of players to zero by gachunt · · Score: 1

    Time to teach this AIphaGo that the only winning move is to not play at all. You know, before it causes global thermonuclear war.

  31. Strategema by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    DATA
    Working under the assumption that
    Kolrami is attempting to win, it
    is reasonable to assume that he
    expects me to play for the same
    goal.

    WESLEY
    You weren't?

    DATA
    No. I was playing only for a
    standoff -- a "draw." While
    Kolrami was dedicated to winning,
    I was able to pass up obvious
    avenues of advancement and settle
    for a balance.

    Theoretically, I should be able
    to challenge him indefinitely.

    PULASKI
    Then you have beaten him.

    DATA
    A matter of perspective. In the
    strictest sense I did not win.

    TROI/PULASKI
    Data!

    DATA
    I busted him up.

    http://memory-alpha.wikia.com/...

  32. And it could have some real use in the world by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 0

    A big one would be medical diagnosis. The kind of analysis it does would be well suited to that. You feed it a patient profile, symptoms and so on. It then searches all the medical literature out there, every last bit, and returns what it believes are the most probably diagnoses, along with percentages (as it would do for Jeopardy answers on its visual output). It could also probably suggests tests to rule out things. If a doctor then subsequently ruled out a given condition, it can refactor the likely results.

    That could really, really help medical diagnosis get more accurate, particularly for rare issues. As my doctor once told me "We can usually help you if it is common, or if it is serious, otherwise it can be difficult." There is just only so much one person can know. With an expert system like Watson, it can literally access all medical information ever. It is still going to need a doctor using it, it isn't the kind of thing that could be followed blindly, but it could really bring diagnosis to the next level and make it so that every primary care provider basically has access to the best, most comprehensive diagnosis information available.

    Now that may not happen, because IBM seems to be a completely fucking stupid company that sells off or shuts down every useful project in favour of marketing overpriced services, but someone will do it at some point if not them.

  33. In fact by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 2

    If you take a chessboard and randomize the pieces, like a truly statistically random placement, it levels the playing field of humans a ton. Masters perform much closer to inexperienced players because one of the things humans rely on is seeing patterns they recognize and working from that, which doesn't happen. However chess programs do just fine. They can still simulate out all the moves to a good number of turns ahead and statistically decide the more optimal ones.

    1. Re:In fact by LateArthurDent · · Score: 1

      However chess programs do just fine. They can still simulate out all the moves to a good number of turns ahead and statistically decide the more optimal ones.

      Although, interestingly, even the computers do a bit worse :)

      Chess isn't a broken game, and there are a lot of permutations that have never been seen before. In the beginning of the game, a lot more options are available, and chess programs rely on a known library of openings and their counters. The middle game, assuming you're equally familiar with the openings, is where you can get an advantage (although it's not likely these days, because computers have gotten fast enough to look a good number of turns ahead, as you've said. Still, it's possible). The end game is optimal for the computer, as the number of permutations left become small enough to exhaustively search. So, if you randomize the board, no opening library for the computer, same as as with the human masters and grandmasters.

      Where that threshold is that we can call the endgame where the computer becomes flawless continuously comes a little bit earlier, as processing power improves.

  34. Why? by tsotha · · Score: 1

    Why do people who claim to be "speechless" then proceed to blabber on for another ten or fifteen minutes?

  35. Start adding bugs to the AI. by sethstorm · · Score: 1

    In order to make it more human, perhaps it is time to arrange to have the AI lose.

    --
    Twitter supports and protects racists - by smearing their critics with the "Hate Speech" label.
  36. The match rules are surprising by Hussman32 · · Score: 1

    It seems like it's best of five...are draws common in Go? It seems like winning three games is not enough given the variety of opening strategies.

    --
    "Who are you?" "No one of consequence." "I must know." "Get used to disappointment."
    1. Re:The match rules are surprising by LetterRip · · Score: 2

      Draws are impossible in go (for the scoring method being used). Specific openings don't matter too much, they give similar chances regardless of the specific opening.

    2. Re:The match rules are surprising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is not a best of five. They will play all five games, not stop after one player reaches 3 wins.

  37. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  38. Watson Hobbled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What I found interesting about Watson is that it answered a question with exactly the same wrong response as a human who had just answered. In other words, it lacked a sense of hearing, and was completely ignorant about the surrounding game.

  39. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  40. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  41. Something I want to know by tylersoze · · Score: 1

    Was AlphaGo writing Go?

  42. Re:Any AFRICAN Go champions? by just+another+AC · · Score: 1

    The third, most critical, is that the % population that have leisure time to spend learning and mastering board game instead of worrying about how to survive (actual survival - food /water /shelter) or about stability of life (political coups, local wars, terrorists).

    Now you are down to a very small number in global terms.

  43. The real question is by iamacat · · Score: 1

    If world's leading mathematicians and Go players come together and are paid salaries for couple of years specifically to defeat the computer and Alpha Go receives no further human help, who will win most games on a rematch?

    It could be that AlphaGo team has discovered some really great new strategies for playing go thanks to their expertise, cooperation and very powerful machine learning tools. But once these strategies are explained to human players, the game could again become a major challenge for unassisted AI to beat.

  44. Actual Machine Intelligence Just Around The Corner by master_p · · Score: 1

    The next AI shock would be in games that the players do not have full knowledge of the game board.

    Once that happens, realistic machine intelligence will be one step away. All that would be needed is to hook up a computer with external sensors and give it a target that it must survive.

    Reality is like a board game where the whole state of it is unknown and the computer, just like humans, will have to speculate, love and fear.

  45. That doesnt seem right? by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

    "Because the number of possible Go board positions exceeds the number of atoms in the universe,

    That seems like quite a bold claim. Atoms in the whole universe? Google tells me the known universe holds an estimated 10^78 to 10^82 atoms whereas a 19x19 go board has 10^170 legal moves.......that doesn't seem right, it can't be. I mean, the teeny tiny things that basically build everything that exists vs spots on a shitty grid...really? Does anyone else taste copper?

    --
    Wanna buy a shirt?
    https://www.redbubble.com/people/stealthfinger/shop?asc=u
    1. Re:That doesnt seem right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A Go configuration can be considered as one microstates in a phase space. The number of microstates of the universe massively outnumbers the Go positions.

    2. Re:That doesnt seem right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not 10^170 legal moves at any given time, it is 10^170 possible legal board positions.

  46. Surprising move by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    For those interested into watching the famous 37th move (19th move of AlphaGo) every news out there is talking about, it's at 1:17:50 in the youtube video:

    https://youtu.be/l-GsfyVCBu0?t=1h17m50s

    1. Re:Surprising move by Lisandro · · Score: 1

      Thank you. The overall reaction (from the commentators and Lee Sedol himself) is priceless.

  47. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  48. Re:Any AFRICAN Go champions? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Africans have plenty of leisure time. It's just spent on sex rather than on board games.

  49. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  50. Codex: Far more complicated than M:tG by Keybounce · · Score: 1

    Far more interesting would be to have a program for Codex.

    Quick comparison
    1. Each person starts with a very small deck (10 cards; there is no death from deck-out, you just shuffle and continue), and a very large sideboard (2 copies of each of 36 cards in three groups.)
    2. Each turn until you have 10 "workers" (think mana sources), you must add two cards from your sideboard, and probably want to convert your worst hand card into a worker
    3. Almost everything you do is a tradeoff of present resources vs future resources. For example, you draw 2 cards more than you discard; discard 3, draw 5 is normal. Bring out a lot of units and spells, and you might discard 1, draw 3 instead.
    4. The starting bonus for player 2 is large enough that you would actually choose it fairly often. (+1 worker -- that's +1 gold per turn for the whole game, and 2 less forced adds to your deck).

    Note that item 1 means that "building your deck" isn't the pre-game game with a meta-game of "what does the internet say are the best decks"; you have to choose how to react to your opponent's choices and openings.

    Most deck builds will have a key strategy or two for winning which establishes a simple order of play. The only thing that really makes MTG difficult to play is the same factors that are at play in other card games where players hold a hand, namely luck of the draw and bluffing.

    Actually, since the deck here is built as you go, there is no "single key strategy". There are some things that your opponent's cards won't be able to do, so there will be some things in your cards that will just never get used in this battle -- but of the remaining choices, there's a lot of choices to make.

    Equally, since your whole "active play deck" is generally two turns or less of draws (typically in the 9 to 14 card range, with total draws in the 4-7 cards per turn range), luck is reduced -- you can add two of a wanted card before you shuffle, so you have a very good chance of getting one of them each time. Some colors can eliminate that luck -- purple can recover cards from their discard, green can get some specific animals directly, etc.

    Interestingly, of the 6 colors, 3 are very similar to their magic colors (green, red, black); one is similar (blue; control/denial/illusion); one is not very similar (white), and one is ... well, purple is past, present, and future -- and future is protoss from star craft. Unlike M:tG, mono-color is very playable -- each color has a complete set of options and potential actions.

    (It's also not collectable -- https://www.kickstarter.com/pr... Kickstarter has ended, but you can order on backerkit).

  51. Uber trained AI by Tolkienite · · Score: 1

    It'll be interesting to pit this AI vs itself for some millions of rounds as training. Maybe it'll come up with different openings ("Huh, turns out it's actually better to go for the center at first" kind of thing, for example). Fun times :)

  52. Sigh by Whiteox · · Score: 1

    "Because the number of possible Go board positions exceeds the number of atoms in the universe, top players rely heavily on their intuition."

    Why are people so stupid?

    --
    Don't be apathetic. Procrastinate!