Slashdot Asks: Is the Golden Era of Video-Game Console Sales Over?

Microsoft announced on Wednesday that it has stopped producing Xbox 360, a gaming console it launched in 2005. According to estimations, the company sold more than 85 million Xbox 360 units worldwide. Quartz has an insightful story today, in which it compares the shipment numbers of Xbox One and the PlayStation 4, the current generation consoles, to conclude that the "golden era" of video-game console sales is over. According to estimations, citing data provided by Nintendo, CNET, GameSpot, and Giant Bomb, the crown for the most popular gaming console goes to the Sony PlayStation 2 (2000) with 155.1 million inventories shipped. Sony PlayStation (1994) saw the movement of 102.49 million units, whereas 101.63 million Nintendo Wii inventories were dispatched. In comparison, Sony has sold 35.9 million units of PlayStation 4 so far, and Microsoft has sold roughly 10 million Xbox One units. From Quartz's report: It does seem, to some degree, that the golden age of home video-game consoles may be over. The previous generation of consoles was the last generation that didn't have to contend for users' time with mobile games. And you could make a strong case that a large portion of the casual gaming audience that Nintendo attracted for the Wii was almost entirely wiped out by mobile gaming. After all, the Wii was released in 2006 -- a year before the iPhone launched. Nintendo's next console, the Wii U, has been the company's worst-selling of all time. The average consumer may now feel more inclined to just pick up their phone and play Candy Crush or Temple Run than to get up and swing a controller around. The home console's saving grace could well be virtual reality. Just about every major tech and video-games company is working on a VR headset -- apart from Nintendo, it seems -- and early reviews of Facebook's Oculus Rift and HTC's Vive headsets have reduced non-gamers to tears. None of the top 10 most popular games consoles of all time have been released in the last 10 years, and VR may well be what turns the slowing console market back around.What's your take on this?

Comments

They still make game consoles?

[jfdavis668]

Who knew? (I now return to playing the latest Angry Bird on my iPad)

Re:They still make game consoles?

[Mattcelt]

I can't speak for anyone else, but for my own purposes, I have avoided the latest generation of consoles for reasons that have nothing to do with mobile gaming.

Wii: If Nintendo had released a more-powerful, HD version of the original Wii for a similar price point, I would have bought three. Instead they added and required that ridiculous controller, which IMHO completely ruined the experience.

Xbox: Requires a subscription for playing on-line, which I simply won't do.

Playstation: I own three PS3s, but the PS4 went the MS route to require a subscription for on-line play, so I've refused. And Sony's repeated feature regression over the years isn't exactly enticing.

For myself, the draw of console gaming has always been 1) the real-time interaction (including audio) with other gamers throughout the world and 2) and off-line (i.e., completely-disconnected) single-player mode. Both of those experiences have grown steadily worse of late.

If any manufacturer releases a console that allows for offline play and free interactive online play, and doesn't require an absurd controller, I'll buy it in a heartbeat.

Re:They still make game consoles?

[Anonymous Coward]

"For myself, the draw of console gaming has always been 1) the real-time interaction (including audio) with other gamers throughout the world"

So, your #1 draw for console gaming is real-time multiplayer, and you're not willing to pay for it. I'm not going to argue about whether MS or Sony are making a huge profit off their subscription prices, but I'm sure that the infrastructure that they've put in place did not come free and the cost has to be covered somehow.

Besides, 1 year of Xbox Gold is less than the cost of a single decent game, and it also provides you with discounts on games and free games. I didn't like paying for it as well at first, but I don't really see it as that big of a burden anymore.

Re:They still make game consoles?

[spire3661]

Steam does have completely DRM free games like Kerbal Space Program and Witcher 3. You can run them without steam being on or even installed.

Re:They still make game consoles?

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

So, your #1 draw for console gaming is real-time multiplayer, and you're not willing to pay for it. I'm not going to argue about whether MS or Sony are making a huge profit off their subscription prices, but I'm sure that the infrastructure that they've put in place did not come free and the cost has to be covered somehow.

Yes, it does. It's called your Internet connection, and you pay your ISP for it.

You can have high-end online games with 10-20 simultaneous players working just fine with a regular Internet connection. No phoning home. No subscription. No lock-in. No expiry date. I know, because I was there when we started writing them. That was around the 1990s, back when broadband was still a dream for most of us and people on the academic networks were called LPBs.

Given the advances in technology of the past 20 years, I don't for a moment believe that it's actually necessary to have a centralised server as a core dependency just for most multiplayer online gaming today. In fact, I can see only two reasons to write your game that way.

One reason is because you really are co-ordinating massive numbers of players in a shared world or otherwise dealing with huge amounts of content that changes over time. If that really is the nature of your game, that's fair enough, but in most cases it is not.

The other reason is just about keeping control, so you can do things like limiting second-hand markets and making it harder to pirate. That's an entirely understandable goal from a commercial point of view, but there is no advantage for legitimate users who just want to enjoy a game with their friends and there are a lot of potential problems or disadvantages.

I didn't like paying for it as well at first, but I don't really see it as that big of a burden anymore.

And that's exactly what a lot of these services are banking on, but apparently quite a lot of customers are getting bored of being exploited in that way now. I can't say I'm overflowing with sympathy for the services in question, because I remember the days when games were about having fun and not just about squeezing as much profit out of the customer base as possible. Ironically, I bought a lot more games in those days.

Re:They still make game consoles?

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Or you could just buy them from GOG in the first place...

Re:They still make game consoles?

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

I have no idea what modern console games are doing; I don't have one. However, the idea that you need a dedicated server, run by the game developers or some intermediary on a subscription basis, just to get a dozen players in the same arena is just silly. Anyone could run a server even back in the early days of games like Quake, and many people did, and the community quickly developed tools to find them so you could match people up and get a game, and it worked just fine without id Software or Microsoft or Valve whoever else controlling everything. That was about 20 years ago, with devices and connection speeds orders of magnitude slower than we have today. If modern game developers can't do the same for the same kinds of game, then they just aren't very good.

Re:They still make game consoles?

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Sorry, whatever analogy you're trying to make there, I'm not seeing it. It's more like, you pay for your own car and its gas, and so do the other drivers on the road, and you can all drive together and share the road sensibly. You also all pay your taxes, which pay for the roads and lights and so on. Then your car dealer says that with their new deluxe model for 2016 actually you all need a subscription to their official Lane Change Management System as well if you want to go anywhere, even though you'd been changing lanes just fine for years before.

Make them toys again. Watch them sell.

[uCallHimDrJ0NES]

This was a predictable cycle to all of us naysayer luddites who play retro consoles. Some manufacturer will come out with a disconnected toy console for children, and the cycle will begin again.

Re:Make them toys again. Watch them sell.

[Dutch Gun]

I seem to recall pundits predicting that this current generation of consoles would be the last *ever*... that no one was interested in home consoles any more because smartphones were eating up the market. That seems a bit ridiculous now, especially as consoles evolve into more general-purpose home entertainment platforms. And naturally, we've been hearing about the impending death of PC gaming for... what, well over a decade now? Somebody should tell all those companies collectively sinking billions into VR research and development.

To me, the argument that consoles (or PCs) are doomed is like saying that three and four star restaurants will all be put out of business because fast food restaurants are so much cheaper, convenient, and popular. It ignores the fact that there are different market segments that will always exist because the different segments provide vastly different experiences. Does anyone think a hard-core gamer will be satisfied with playing on a 6" screen with a touch-screen versus a 60" TV with monster speakers and an ergonomic, purpose-built game controller, or using a high-end PC with precision controllers and dedicated gaming hardware (like the new VR equipment)? Is anyone stupid enough to believe that you can even build the exact same sort of games for all different platforms, given their different form factors?

More to the point, just because the market for smartphone-based games is increasing doesn't mean it has the same demographics as the console market, nor does it mean that, even for those in the same demographic, that person even could use a console when they're playing a phone-based game. After all, they could be anywhere, like on a plane or in a hotel room, since that's the obvious virtue of mobile platforms: they're always available.

Generally speaking, I think there's a lot less competition between mobile and traditional games than most people believe. I believe it represents a fairly large expansion of the gaming market, and not just a shift from one platform to another, even if some migration is inevitable.

Yar's Revenge's Revenge

[Pseudonymous Powers]

I think the problem may be that nine out of ten games released now are just Call of Duty with a different skin: CoD: Aliens, CoD: Zombies, CoD: Indiana Jones, CoD: Noir.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go blow on some contacts and reinsert.

(That sounds sexier than it is.)

Let's get this straight...

[Junta]

PS4 has only been out for 3 years, and you are comparing units moved to systems that had a decade or more sales lifetime and drawing conclusions based on those being equivalent things to compare?

Re:Let's get this straight...

[Junta]

xbox1 is way behind xbox360, particularly around launch time because Sony did such a better job at launch (MS was pricier with bundled Kinect, and lower spec).

PS4 is way ahead of PS3, because PS3 was a disaster. PS4 is in fact outpacing, month for month, their proclaimed champion of the home consoles, the PS2.

Weep not for the Virtual Boy

[Hadlock]

the Wii U, has been the company's worst-selling of all time.

Does noone remember the Virtual Boy console from Nintendo? I don't think more than 30,000 or so were manufactured, probably less.

Re:Why buy consoles that aren't above and beyond?

[Junta]

Actually, that hasn't been the case for a long time. The allure has been 'it just works and won't get cluttered with random crap being piled on and on and on' and 'games don't have no tunables whatsoever'.. PS3 made the fatal mistake of assuming it still had to deliver exotic.

I personally find the lack of versatility disturbing, but most folks don't care about that.

Dirty console peasants

[sinij]

Dirty console peasants tried and failed to become a master race. Why would anyone buy a networked inferior computer that also charges monthly fee when for a little bit extra you can a) buy an actual PC b) if you don't need an actual PC, do just fine with a smartphone and play casual games on it.

That is, PC gaming became much cheaper, to the point that you could game on a $600 box; consoles became more general-purpose computing platforms with apps and networking, and smartphones, that most people would already have, took over casual gaming niche.

updated question

[argStyopa]

Is this the updated version of the question asked, what, maybe a year ago asking if computer games were dead and consoles were the future?

Or is it the "consoles and computers are dead, mobile gaming is the future?" question?

I get confused which point on the repetitive-headline cycle we're in this week.

This again?

[Atrox666]

The same thing was said when the Colecovision and Atari 2600 faded.

Re:Why buy consoles that aren't above and beyond?

[Captain Splendid]

Yup. when you can get a mid-range gaming laptop for around $500, consoles start looking pretty useless.

I am a little surprised though. I would have thought that things like Netflix integration and other 'media center' goodies would help attenuate this problem, but I guess not.

Re:Why buy consoles that aren't above and beyond?

[Austerity Empowers]

I'm not sure of any time in the last 20 years when console horsepower exceeded PC horsepower. It has just become laughable in the last generation or two. The one benefit you had was that the game was designed to run on exactly that platform and optimized for that platform so you had less of an unpredictable experience to your customer.

But they have fallen so far behind, and so much more time is spent on trying to make the console into a PC or appliance (ipad/iphone) with a bad input device.

Re:Sales over first 3 years

[Ravaldy]

But the 10 million Xbox mark is wrong. They are at 20 million sold since its launch:
http://n4g.com/news/1877256/ps...

The consoles also last much longer. 11 years for a console is amazing. The PS3 and Xbox 360 are online which means content is available to this date. The ease at which game makers can publish to multiple platform is another reason the transition from one console to another is slow since many new games are still appearing on old consoles. I'm not a console guy but most of my friends are and most of them are still using their Xbox 360 or Ps3 because they don't feel they need to dish out more money to play the same game they still love.

Re:Or another reason

[MobyDisk]

Apparently not:
PS2 in 2000: $299
PS4 in 2015: $399
$399 in the year 2015 equals $285 in the year 2000

The console is dead! Long live the console!!

[cogeek]

The tablet is dead! Long live the tablet!
The laptop is dead! Long live the laptop!
The desktop is dead! Long live the desktop!

Over the years the naysayers have smugly declared the death of all sorts of technologies that are still around. It goes through phases. Yes mobile gaming holds some appeal to the younger generation because it's always with you and can be played anytime. But can you really compare Candy Crush to The Division? Or Boom Beach to GTA V? There will always be a market for games on multiple platforms. Just like some users swear consoles are the only way to play games and us old timers say "bring it on, I'll crush your gamepad with my keyboard and mouse circle-strafe!" As long as people are buying and playing games on a particular platform, publishers will continue putting out games on that platform.

Each one may have it's "golden age" as well as it's "golden years" but they'll all be around for a long time to come.

Can someone please translate?

[Radical Moderate]

"early reviews of Facebook's Oculus Rift and HTC's Vive headsets have reduced non-gamers to tears."

What exactly is that implying? The headsets are so awesome that non-gamers will start gaming? They're so awesome non-gamers are crying because their gaming loved ones will spend all their time playing games again? Motion sickness? WTF?

Re:Can someone please translate?

[ItsJustAPseudonym]

The gamers who were wearing the headsets were jumping around a lot, and smacking the faces of the non-gamers standing nearby.

Self inflicted

[jxander]

These losses and failings are the result of console developers own shortsightedness.

For years, they've been creating consoles based on the worst aspects of PCs with none of the PC benefits. No couch multiplayer, required internet connection, long boot times, frequent software updates, all while being completely unable to compete with PCs on graphical fidelity, multitask capability or input selection (PCs support keyboard/mouse, console controllers, etc, up to full HOTAS setups with rudder pedals and such). Consoles also lack the markets like Steam, GoG, GMG and Humble Bundle.

So yeah ... all the weaknesses, none of the strengths from both sides. Are we surprised that they aren't doing so well?

The fatal flaw was making them "serious".

[Opportunist]

What was the big selling point for consoles over PCs? Simplicity and "just works". Seriously. Put it up, plug it in, plug it into your TV, throw that CD or cartridge into the thing and here we go. Game on. Wiggle those thumbs 'til your eyes fall out and your brains rot.

That huge advantage was lost when consoles became essentially PCs without keyboard. Because hey, it's so much easier to produce games that way and you can produce games that play on consoles AND PC that way. Well, nobody wants to play them on a PC because the controls are ass-backwards if they are designed for a controller and you have to use them with keyboard+mouse, but who gives a shit about customers?

And the console jockeys were pissed to. Pop that CD in and ... install an update for your system. Go online to register it. Download some shit for that online content you don't give a fuck about. Install some more shit. Update the system once more because you changed your sitting position. Choose your avatar. Upload it to some server. Customize your avatar. More time to upload it again. Here, buy some bling! Or some new levels! Reboot your console after the update. And FINALLY you get to ... oh fuck it's bedtime.

Get consoles back to what they were. Simple, easy to use and most of all NO FUCKING LOAD TIME! For fuck's sake, given that these games come now on BluRay discs and most PCs have a SSD HD, load times are SHORTER on PC than they are on consoles!

Re: Why buy consoles that aren't above and beyond?

[jxander]

Give me a console that does this, and I'll buy it.

In the meantime, I need to keep browsing forums for another 20-30 minutes while my console updates... and then has to download a patch for the game.

Yeah, yeah console gaming is dead

[NotDrWho]

Next year it will be "PC gaming is dead"

Been seeing this same headline pop up every few years since Atari went bust in 1983. Yet consoles still get made, still sell well, and still get revitalized periodically.

Re:Sales over first 3 years

[firehawk2k]

The original article has a small blurb that compares sales over the first three years:

Microsoft’s follow-up console, the Xbox One, has not sold nearly as well as the 360. In 2008, less than three years after it was launched, the company said the 360 had sold over 19 million units worldwide. The Xbox One was released in 2013, and has sold about 10 million units in roughly the same amount of time as its predecessor.

Sales for the first 3 years are bad for Xbox One. Sales of PS4 compared to PS3 for the first 3 years are very promising.

They are implying that everyone is having a bad time because Microsoft is having a bad time.

Re:Or another reason

[avandesande]

You have to think in terms relative to a computer- you can build a nice computer now for 500$. You couldn't do that in 2000.....