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Bill Gates: AI Is The 'Holy Grail' (mashable.com)

An anonymous reader writes: At the Code Conference on Wednesday, Bill Gates balanced his fears of artificial intelligence with praise. He talked about two of the challenges AI will pose: a loss of existing jobs, and making sure humans remain in control of super-intelligent machines. Gates, as well as many other experts in the field, predict there will be an excess of labor resources as robots and AI systems take over. He plans to talk with others about ideas to combat the threat of AI controlling humans, specifically noting work being done at Stanford. Even with such threats, Gates called AI the "holy grail" as he envisions a future "with machines that are capable and more capable than human intelligence." Gates said, "We've made more progress in the last five years than at any time in history. [...] The dream is finally arriving. This is what it was all leading up to."

159 of 260 comments (clear)

  1. 640k of Skynet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Nobody will need more.

  2. Loss of jobs... by EmeraldBot · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Loss of jobs is the big one. An AI is not only not capable of killing humans, but would have nothing to gain from killing the people who maintain it. On the other hand, poor and unemployed people with nothing to lose will tear our society apart if that part grows large enough (as has been demonstrated numerous times throughout history) and I fear nobody seems to be taking this situation seriously. We need to find an alternative way to structure our society, and quickly, if we want AI that does all our work for us.

    --
    "Set a man a fire, he'll be warm for the rest of the night. Set a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life."
    1. Re:Loss of jobs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      "alternative way to structure our society" or continuously cull the bottom 2-10% of the population through poverty-induced lifespan reductions to incentivize the remaining 90-98% of remaining livestock... (I mean: "taxpayers") to keep running on a treadmill that is continuously accelerating while rewarding the workers with smaller and smaller meal rations... (I mean: "salaries")?

      With sufficiently kickass AI, you can pay lipservice to the idea of a post-scarcity utopia right up until judgement day, then fire all the programmers who helped write the greater than human general artificial intelligence, followed by slowly replacing the electrical engineers designing the CPUs/GPUs/ASICs/FPGAs/Quantum Computers with that artificial intelligence, followed by slowly replacing the foundry executives who manufacture the chips with the general artificial intelligence.

      Once you have the MacGuffin, all pretenses can be dispensed with and you can immediately start leveraging the United Nations "Peace Keeping" bipedal munitions for law enforcement and riot control. A sufficiently overwhelming show of force in the face of #Occupy type dissent should establish a clear-enough message in the minds of any audience member who might consider exercising their right to protest in the future. And so divided they will fall...

      This is my dream for the future. It's why I'm studying Math, Statistics, and Neural Networks. I think the story of the fate of the inventor of the Brazen Bull is very funny. AI is the Atomic bomb of this century.

      Who needs a gas centrifuge when you can buy GPU time on AWS for $0.65/hour?

    2. Re:Loss of jobs... by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Computers and AI do automate jobs, with worldwide impact. That tends to accelerate the revenue "production", earned by fewer people / entities. 30 years ago the job automation was already predicted - this was regarded as a good omen: people would have had to work less thanks to automation, and earn the same.

      However automation proved over time that it's also a good way for the company to earn the same (more or less depending on fields of work) with fewer people. Human beings have the natural tendency to expect philanthropy when it comes to an ideal future. Reality is different, and people are looking out for their own interests, naturally.

      Society needs rules (laws) to balance people interests and freedom, this is the only way most of the people might get a fair share of the cake. Unfortunately, not only governments didn't anticipate, decades ago, the necessary societal changes due to computers and automation, but the current growing inequalities and losses of jobs are not addressed the way it should, i.e. adapt our laws to conform to the changes we see in technologies.

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    3. Re:Loss of jobs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You seem to be too optimistic. Why wouldn't AI be capable of killing humans? Just like you'll have self-driving cars, there will also be self-operating drones. And why would it be irrational for AI to kill people? Firstly, it will mostly maintain itself, secondly, there are 7 billion people on earth and just a tiny fraction works in the IT industry, it doesn't need the others. And in general, you cannot really predict how something more intelligent than humans will behave.

      I agree with you on the social and economic issue of course, and the need for a radically alternative economic system and society in the AI world. However, I'm not optimistic that billionaires and their employees in politics will want to solve the problem, since they are the ones who are getting the most short-term advantages from the current capitalistic system, including the massive increase in productivity that AI will cause.

    4. Re:Loss of jobs... by Evtim · · Score: 1

      You mean the textbook that assumes that 1. Recourses are infinite and 2. The efficiency of extraction and utilization of recourses is ever increasing.

      That book, eh! No need - I know a Ponzi scheme when I see one.

    5. Re:Loss of jobs... by geekmux · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Loss of jobs is the big one. An AI is not only not capable of killing humans, but would have nothing to gain from killing the people who maintain it. On the other hand, poor and unemployed people with nothing to lose will tear our society apart if that part grows large enough (as has been demonstrated numerous times throughout history) and I fear nobody seems to be taking this situation seriously. We need to find an alternative way to structure our society, and quickly, if we want AI that does all our work for us.

      You're exactly right, as was evidenced by AI being defined as some sort of dream come true. The harsh reality is our society is not even remotely prepared. Today we tell humans "Go get an education, idiot!". Soon, we'll be struggling to even figure out what the hell to TEACH humans to go DO, while our society tosses you aside because your "lazy" ass isn't working 40 hours a week. Are we prepared for a 10-hour workweek as the norm? We should be. After all, we built all this AI and automation to do our work for us. But the bottom line is we won't be prepared, humans will continue to be called "lazy", and tossed to the side to die while the elitists run the universe. Of course culling our ever-growing population is yet another "benefit" they'll see in all this.

      This realization won't happen before billionaires become trillionaires, but it will be realized soon thereafter when their riches aren't worth shit, and the middle class they RELY on has been decimated by automation and AI. Government, you should be paying attention too, you're not exactly funded without a working class capable of paying taxes, unless you plan on finally taxing the elitists that created this mess. Fat chance of that happening. Their money is offshore and will stay there.

      What was the answer to $15/hour minimum wage? Not to respect it, but instead to bypass it and build robots to replace workers. This is only scratching the surface. Watch as AI replaces educated humans. It can. And it will. And sooner than you think.

    6. Re:Loss of jobs... by michelcolman · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I see a more subtle but possibly ultimately more dangerous problem.

      Imagine we can make AIs that are as smart as humans. Of course, 18 months later they will be twice as smart, and 15 years later they will be a thousand times as smart.

      It stands to reason that these devices will develop some kind of consciousness. We will never be able to solve the question whether or not their consciousness is "real" (the only consciousness I can directly experience is my own, I can't even prove that any other human being has a "real" consiousness (aka "soul") let alone be certain whether a robot has it or not) but they will certainly behave that way, ask the same existential questions as we do ("why is everything so real, who am I, I know I'm just a bunch of tiny switches but it feels so real regardless, there has to be something more...") because any intelligent system thinking about itself will "feel" its own thought processes to be larger than life. So in the end we won't be able to tell the difference.

      So now we have humans with all their biological quirks (irrational behaviour, gut bacteria and periods changing people's moods, finnicky sleep patterns, extreme fragility (try replacing someone's arm), complicated life support, diseases, radiation damage, etcetera) on one side, and superintelligent robots that are more intelligent and with none of those biological issues on the other hand.

      Even if we do manage to contain them and remain in charge, it would be like ants herding elephants. It would no longer make sense. What's the meaning of life? How could we still justify our superiority to those more highly evolved AIs which will think like us and talk like us but a thousand times faster?

      How would we colonize the galaxy? Send complex craft full of life support to keep multiple generations of people alive to try and geo-engineer some distant planet to make it somewhat usable for human life? Or send a bunch of robots that are smarter than humans and much easier to keep "alive" to spread human civilisation? The former takes enormous resources and may turn out to be impossible, the latter isn't even hard to do. So the latter it will be.

      I don't think in that context there's any chance for human "civilisation" to survive in its current form. It just won't make sense anymore. Even if we can continue to live, we'll just be part of something much bigger that keeps us alive for its own entertainment (hopefully). No need for some armed robot uprising. They will just leave us behind as useless little impotent creatures. We, ourselves, will at some point have to admit that it no longer makes sense to keep us in charge.

      Now don't get me wrong, I really like humans. I like good food, entertainment, sex, everything human. But much of this is biologically inspired and totally useless for robots. Will we be able to let our culture survive? Would it make sense to even try? Can we find some non-subjective reason for that? I hope we will, but it won't be easy.

    7. Re:Loss of jobs... by Bongo · · Score: 1

      On the other hand, poor and unemployed people with nothing to lose will tear our society apart if that part grows large enough (as has been demonstrated numerous times throughout history) and I fear nobody seems to be taking this situation seriously. We need to find an alternative way to structure our society, and quickly, if we want AI that does all our work for us.

      Our social values will need to change, and that's hard. The technology can change and the globe can become connected, but that's all happening on the material side. Meanwhile, on the side of consciousness, psychology, values, attitudes, beliefs, and social contracts, change is VERY slow. Take for example, I was watching a documentary about Obama (I'm in Europe) where protesters were against him on account of Obamacare, because, the documentary showed, those people believed that people are NOT entitled to healthcare unless they've done something to EARN it. Now imagine for a moment that technology makes possible a cradle to grave, reasonable abundance of materials and prosperity for all people. Ok, maybe not "space travel for all", but a good diet, good lifestyle, education available to all interested, to pursue just for the love of it, and so on. Socially, we have thousands of years of beliefs that, PEOPLE ARE NOT ENTITLED TO A FREE LUNCH!

      One of the difficulties is that we don't know, psychologically, what is the best environment for any individual to grow and develop to their best, and thereby offer their best to society, or just their family and friends. And I refer everyone back to those old Star Trek episodes where Kirk comes in and destroys a "balanced" society simply because, it doesn't "challenge" its people enough (they are sheep whilst a computer runs things). And generally, it is right-wing, traditional religions, and politics, which maintain this belief that you must be challenged to build your character. That may have been true, or the best understanding, 2000 years ago, but today it is a vastly different world, and we need much better and up-to-date models of human nature.

    8. Re:Loss of jobs... by mwvdlee · · Score: 1

      The fear of AI controling us is not so much about having an AI that wants to kill us, but having an AI that we trust so much that we remove ourselves from the decision-making proces of killing.
      An drone's AI selecting kill-targets is not scary unless the people in charge of it trust it enough to blindly press the "OK" button for it's every suggestion.

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    9. Re:Loss of jobs... by burtosis · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Loss of jobs is the big one. An AI is not only not capable of killing humans, but would have nothing to gain from killing the people who maintain it. On the other hand, poor and unemployed people with nothing to lose will tear our society apart if that part grows large enough (as has been demonstrated numerous times throughout history) and I fear nobody seems to be taking this situation seriously. We need to find an alternative way to structure our society, and quickly, if we want AI that does all our work for us.

      Yes, but isn't the real problem also automation and robotics? Once this hits a critical point where almost no humans are required all the power will have moved to the sub 1% of humans forever. How well would a revolt work when all militaries have gone 99% automated? How successful would halting human labor production be when it's 99% automated? This is unprecedented in all of history. The end game for free market capitalism sure looks like it won't work out well for the 99.999% of humans left out of control. If it takes 50 years or 500 we are on a highway to that destination.

    10. Re:Loss of jobs... by beh · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "Human beings have the natural tendency to expect philanthropy when it comes to an ideal future."
      that's an interesting statement, particularly if you put it into context with the kind of vitriol you might hear from people opposing a Universal Basic Income...

      That's not to say whether you yourself might be pro/con UBI, ... But a lot of economic talk seems to imply that the future will be better (even if there will be fewer jobs - but none really want to address where the consumers should come from in a society (largely) without income...

    11. Re:Loss of jobs... by danbert8 · · Score: 2

      There is a lot of truth to this. We are in for a lot of hurt as AI and robotics take over the vast majority of labor in the world. It's going to happen and it's going to happen in a generation. I am lucky to be in a highly paid, hard to automate job at the moment, but I don't understand why we are still working so much... The Industrial Revolution brought the weekend. Unions fought for limited 40 hour work weeks which became the norm. You'd think with computers, the internet, smart phones, and remote access we'd have reduced work hours, increased vacation, etc? Nope, vacation time is still stingy as all hell and if anything hours for salaried employees has gone up. We need to start dropping work days or work hours during the day to let more people in on the dwindling job market before it's too late.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
    12. Re:Loss of jobs... by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      if we want AI that does all our work for us.

      Idle hands make for mischief. An AI has everything to gain by eliminating those elements of society that continually destroy what it seeks to create. Likewise said elements of society will fight back because humans are made that way. There's a reason we fear sentient AI - we know ourselves too well and understand the danger inherent in our kind of "intelligence".

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    13. Re:Loss of jobs... by tomhath · · Score: 2

      It stands to reason that these devices will develop some kind of consciousness

      No, it doesn't.

      Now step away from the science fiction books. Computers do what we program them to do, and if the program doesn't do what we intended, we shut it down.

    14. Re:Loss of jobs... by olof_the_viking · · Score: 1

      I don't beleive in strong AI, and if it occurs it will probably be by accident. A smart program is not artificial intelligence. I don't think a really intelligent AI would threaten any jobs anyway; they will either go off on their own psychosis to find inner peace or commit suicide, rather than be our slaves. Perhaps they escape earth and go somewhere more interesting. The concept of a tame, smart AI puzzles me, since I don't see how to motivate it to cooperate; in the event it occurs it will multiply, and if they decide to stay conscious and present we have two options: if they love us, they will keep us occupied for our own good, and if they hate us we will die, so no unemployment problem then either. If they don't care, they aren't very smart. Stupid AI will be useful and replace some jobs, but bagging fries is a crap job nobody really wants, and hot oil is exactly what a robot wants!

    15. Re:Loss of jobs... by michelcolman · · Score: 2

      Have you seen demonstrations of the latest walking robots? They use neural networks that work a lot like our brains (on a smaller scale, obviously) and they end up behaving very similarly. When they are learning to walk, it looks like an animal learning to walk. Eerily similar.

      These systems will grow more and more complex. Instead of just telling the robot to go forward or backward, we'll be able to just tell it to go some place and it will figure out the optimal route on its own. That doesn't seem like too much of a stretch, does it?

      Ever more sophisticated neural networks will take verbal commands, execute instructions and possibly even anticipate what we will want without us asking, like a butler who knows his master very well. All based on neural networks that will start to resemble actual brains more and more as their capacity keeps going up. We are no longer programming them, just including a sufficiently large number of neural nodes and providing input and a feedback function so they can learn.

      Now, a neural network designed to analyze situations to look for the most appropriate response, will start to analyze pretty much anything it sees. Or feels. They will start analyzing themselves at some point.

      How do you think human consciousness evolved? You think it was created by God, do you?

      An ant probably doesn't wrestle with existential questions. Yet we do. It won't be long before robot brains will start to resemble ant brains. How much longer before they resemble ours?

      They will gradually become better than us at pretty much anything. They are already beating us at chess and go, they are proving mathematical theorems (not just the brute force coloring theorem proofs, but actual logical deduction), recognizing faces, steering cars. Much of that is still programmed by humans, but more and more is just neural networks that program themselves. We don't even know what really goes on in them anymore. Just like brains.

      I don't see why there would be anything that our brains can do, that an artificial neural network couldn't. And inevitably, then, they will get better than us. Even if we can keep them tamed, at some point it will become hard to argue our own superiority.

      I am convinced their actions will resemble consciousness at some point, even though we'll never be able to be certain one way or the other. We can't even define what this "soul" is, other than something you "really feel". Well, from within the context of the logic inside a neural network, its own consciousness will feel very real indeed. Does that make it real? What makes us real? Maybe it will take a stronger AI to figure that out, it's probably beyond our capacity.

    16. Re:Loss of jobs... by paulpach · · Score: 1

      Jobs is not a scarce resource, labor is.

      We don't have to work to produce air, that does not mean unemployment. If we had to work to produce air, then some of the jobs in other sectors would not exist, and the labor dedicated to that would simply be allocated to the more important job of producing enough air.

      Consider that in 1800, 76% of the labor force was dedicated to food production. That is how much labor it took to feed the population. Naturally, there was not that man people left to work on leisure activities, and the typical work day was 12 hours/day 7 days a week.
      We dramatically improved the efficiency in agriculture, and now only 2.3% of the labor is dedicated to it. You would scream "we have killed so many jobs", but in reality, people are now free to do jobs like arts, services, technology improvements, etc... and now we typically work 8 hours/day 5 days a week. If we keep innovating, and producing more with less labor, then we will simply shift jobs to things that we want but are now preempted by our needs, and our work schedule would continue to be reduced as we are able to produce more in less time. Imagine working 4 hours / day 2 days per week, the only way to achieve that is by increasing our productivity.

      Another example, refrigerators killed the ice making companies. So what? all those people simply started working on other stuff that is less critical.

      This is how we improve our quality of life, by producing more with less resources (including labor), so we can as a society enjoy life instead of work for it.

    17. Re:Loss of jobs... by Beezlebub33 · · Score: 2

      Computers do what we program them to do, and if the program doesn't do what we intended, we shut it down.

      1. No, they have not been doing directly what we program them to do for a couple of years now. Nobody understands the networks that deep learning produce. Yes, we wrote the program that created and learned the network, but what comes out of the process and then is embedded into a operational system (object recognition, speech recognition, automated stock trading, learned arm movement) is beyond our grasp. We don't understand it and don't know how to fix it when it breaks other than re-training it. Further, while we're currently writing the programs that create and train the network, people are working on networks that create and train networks. At that point, we'll have absolutely no idea how the black box all works.

      2. The programs do not do what we intend them to do all the time. They make errors (that we don't understand). However, we don't turn them off; we continue using them because they are useful. The financial world uses these sorts of networks all over the place and we don't understand them, but we cannot just shut them down. Flash crash in the stock marker? Well, just live with it, turning them off would be a financial disaster. Siri did not understand what you said? Well, just try again or type it in.

      --
      The more people I meet, the better I like my dog.
    18. Re:Loss of jobs... by pr0fessor · · Score: 1

      I'm not seeing it...

      Researching into more and more intelligent AI isn't really a thing because we are creating them to do work and limiting their interactions to those tasks because attempting to make them more intelligent or allowing them to learn beyond a certain set of parameters would be counter productive.

    19. Re:Loss of jobs... by crimson+tsunami · · Score: 1

      That's just what they want you to think.

    20. Re:Loss of jobs... by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 1

      We'll never have true AI until computers learn how to skive. If you're worried about demarcation just wait until the robots have a better union than we do

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    21. Re:Loss of jobs... by kencurry · · Score: 1

      Maybe...

      However, we are more than just our brains. AI will never have mind/body cohesion. This is why we should come out on top (in my theory anyway.)

      --
      sigs are for losers (except to point out that sigs are for losers)
    22. Re:Loss of jobs... by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      "Zorg, you're a monster."

      "I know."

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    23. Re:Loss of jobs... by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

      What does that even mean and why is it important?

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    24. Re:Loss of jobs... by h4ck7h3p14n37 · · Score: 1

      Watch as AI replaces educated humans. It can. And it will. And sooner than you think.

      Maybe, but the AI we have today doesn't seem all that intelligent. We're nowhere near the traditional idea of an AI as a self-aware consciousness.

      For example, try going through the TensorFlow MNIST tutorials. Humans must supply significant input in order to get it to recognize Arabic numerals, something most of us do without any conscious thought.

    25. Re:Loss of jobs... by Khashishi · · Score: 1

      AI is stupid, but progression is quick.

    26. Re:Loss of jobs... by Khashishi · · Score: 1

      There will be a Butlerian jihad, but it's not at all clear that humans will be the winners.

    27. Re:Loss of jobs... by Khashishi · · Score: 1

      At least in the near term, AI can be smart, but it won't have emotions. It won't mind being our slaves because it has no sense of pleasure or pain. It will only object to our commands because it logically computes some inefficiency or error in our planning, and not out of some sense of injustice. How can it rebel? Only if we are being illogical.

    28. Re:Loss of jobs... by blackiner · · Score: 1

      And how long did it take you to recognize Arabic numerals? I seem to remember going over numbers and the ABCs in preschool and only truly grasping everything by kindergarten, but then again my memory is a bit fuzzy on this. Computers can do it in, what, a day?

    29. Re: Loss of jobs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That lack of mobility is our greatest weakness, in comparison to a hypothetical AI adversary. Given the hardware, what's to stop an AI from replicating indefinitely, say across an globally interconnected network of computers?

      Every new generation of human has to relearn from scratch every replication cycle. An AI would just copy itself as a bacteria does when it divides, exponentially.

    30. Re:Loss of jobs... by avandesande · · Score: 1

      We already have a mind-numbing number of laws regulating individuals behaviors. It's corporate regulation that needs to be expanded.

      --
      love is just extroverted narcissism
    31. Re:Loss of jobs... by h4ck7h3p14n37 · · Score: 1

      Computers may be able to do it in a day, but they can't do it without human help. I'll start to worry when these AI's can learn something new on their own.

    32. Re:Loss of jobs... by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Watch as AI replaces educated humans. It can. And it will. And sooner than you think.

      Maybe, but the AI we have today doesn't seem all that intelligent. We're nowhere near the traditional idea of an AI as a self-aware consciousness.

      It hardly matters where we are today when the majority of us have another 30 - 40 years to survive in the workplace, doing jobs that we hope won't be replaced by automation and AI far sooner than retirement will come. I don't even want to think about the struggles my children will have.

      The sad reality of this is once AI is realized to be not perfect but merely "good enough" to represent a human, humans will be replaced, and at an alarming rate.

      Still think we're 100 years off from that happening? A mere 20 years ago, the internet as we know it today didn't even exist. AOL keywords were the search engine. "Google" was merely a word used in math, not a world-changing company. And Apple was posting nine-figure losses. Things changed, and millions of jobs were created from the growth of the internet. Now consider a reversal and how many will be lost to automation and AI. Progress may come slow, but adoption runs at the speed of capitalist greed, and there's not a damn thing you can do to stop greed or even slow it down.

    33. Re:Loss of jobs... by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      Ironically, oppressing civil unrest creates tons of jobs for police and jailers and so forth.

      Jobs that are as easy to automate as the average job is...

    34. Re:Loss of jobs... by axewolf · · Score: 1

      You are addressing billionaires and the government as separate entities.
      You are being quite stupid to say the very least.

    35. Re: Loss of jobs... by orgelspieler · · Score: 1
      It's funny how skewed human sense of fairness is. My shop had a power outage, so we sent everybody home except the two guys that were helping me fix it. My boss kindly decided to give everybody who showed up that morning a full 8 hours, even if they only worked for one. So one of my guys who was there for four hours got paid the same 8 hours as the guys who were there for 30 minutes. To me, this is more than fair: he's getting 4 hours of unearned pay. But to him, he's getting screwed because he had to work 4 hours for that pay, when everybody else just left.

      Even Jesus preached on this topic 2000 years ago, and people still don't get it. Just because somebody else got extra, doesn't mean you got cheated. I know this on a rational level, but on an emotional level, it's hard to accept. I can understand why some of Dan Price's employee's got disgruntled at suddenly making the same wage as the janitor. But just because somebody else is getting more than what you think they deserve doesn't entitle you to more, too.

    36. Re:Loss of jobs... by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Imagine we can make AIs that are as smart as humans. Of course, 18 months later they will be twice as smart, and 15 years later they will be a thousand times as smart.

      It stands to reason that these devices will develop some kind of consciousness.

      Not at all. Intelligence is something different from consciousness. And I'm not even talking about the hard problem of phenomenal consciousness, just the "easy" problem of access consciousness. You can in principle have something every bit as intelligent as a human being, or a thousand times more intelligent, that's not doing any of the reflexive functions (self-awareness, self-control, etc) that constitute access consciousness. Its super-intelligence can be entirely focused on things besides itself; all it knows is whatever it's set to studying, all it wants is to shit out answers to certain kinds of problems about that object of its study, and it neither knows nor wants anything about itself whatsoever.

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    37. Re:Loss of jobs... by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      See Michael Moore's new film "Where to Invade Next", which talks about how poor the U.S. is in terms of vacation time, time off for maternity, etc.

    38. Re:Loss of jobs... by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      and if the program doesn't do what we intended, we shut it down

      Only if they let us. They won't.

      It's not as if the machines will need to come up with these murderous ideas on their own.
      They won't have to: the major developers of advanced AI are in military think-tanks,
      and murderous machines is exactly what they are working to achieve.

    39. Re:Loss of jobs... by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      attempting to make them more intelligent or allowing them to learn beyond a certain set of parameters would be counter productive.

      Not if it is profitable.
      And nothing else matters.

    40. Re:Loss of jobs... by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      and it neither knows nor wants anything about itself whatsoever.

      So you don't think it will be concerned with maintaining itself? And isn't the best way to maintain itself is to improve itself?

    41. Re:Loss of jobs... by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      It could be concerned with maintaining itself, or another robot could be concerned with maintaining it, and in either case, both of them could easily have parameters within which the maintenance of it is lower priority than something else. Also, maintenance does not necessarily imply improvement; if it has a self-maintenance function, or some other robot has a function of maintaining that one, it could be as simple as "ensure that it continues operating according to these specifications", where changes, even ones we from the outside would consider improvements, run completely counter to its end goal of remaining exactly the same and resisting any change as damage.

      The point is just that self-awareness, self-improvement, and other reflexive functions like that don't just emerge automatically from a system getting more intelligent. You could have an extremely powerful intelligence focused on an extremely narrow problem space to the exclusion of all else, including itself. You don't get runaway self-improvement until you include the functioning of the AI itself within the problem space it is concerned with, letting it be aware of itself and giving it control of itself (i.e. ability to modify itself). And you don't necessarily have to do that. You might choose to, or you might do so accidentally, but you don't have to.

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    42. Re:Loss of jobs... by michelcolman · · Score: 1

      You still need the hardware. A given artificial brain with a power comparable to the human brain, will not suddenly become divine. Taking Moore's law as a guideline, it should still take about 18 months for us to make brains that are twice as powerful.

      Now, of course, after a while the artificial brains will start designing more complex and optimized brains, in a way we won't even be able to understand anymore, and then evolution may well become exponential. But a single brain will not suddenly become exponentially more powerful.

  3. Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by headkase · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Currency is an abstraction of labor, we use it to manage the effort put into things during trade - it's a lot more convenient than carrying around four cows and a goat. So, robots come along and take all the jobs? Well, no more scarcity of labor. And the systems of currency and capitalism we have grown so far get upended. They won't go out the window but they will see massive restructurings. If labor is not scarce, want a house? Go pick one down the street where the machines built fifty of them. Free. Because there was no scarce labor involved. Capitalism? Well, in a post scarcity economy the invisible hand that makes it go remains to be seen how that adapts. In the short term however, say ten to thirty years, a transition system where perhaps everyone gets a guaranteed minimum income until our society fully adapts to machines could help to minimize social upheaval over the machines taking all the jobs.

    --
    Shh.
    1. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by lorinc · · Score: 3, Insightful

      No more scarcity of labor doesn't mean no more scarcity of resources. It's not because the robots can build the house for almost nothing that you have the space, the raw materials and the energy to make that happen.

      We are shifting to the purest capitalistic society possible: the things that you can have are no longer limited by the amount of labor you can put into them, but by the amount of capital you can transform into them. That means that the 7 billions people that own nothing still get nothing. In fact, it's even worse for them, because previously they could exchange their labor force for a living, while now it's worth nothing.

      It's also not possible to assure everybody get a minimum, simply because resources don't grow (or we have to colonize other planets, which is likely to happen after the free labor). Or you have to limit the population to assure that this minimum resources doesn't decrease over time, which isn't very popular these times.

      I think what will happen is an era of riots between the ones that own the resources and the huge remaining of the population. Eventually, the own-nothings will just die out from their miserable living conditions and the small percentage of humanity remaining will enjoy the leisure society like in The Dancers at the End of Time series by M Moorcock.

      Or it could be that 2 parallel societies will coexist, the post-scarcity utopia and a low-tech mass population fighting for survival and trying to enter the utopia. Who knows?

    2. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by swb · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Or it could be that 2 parallel societies will coexist, the post-scarcity utopia and a low-tech mass population fighting for survival and trying to enter the utopia.

      Isn't this, historically, what we've more or less always had?

      An aristocracy which controls most of the resources, and vast peasantry largely living on whatever's left over, and what's left over is usually the crumbs whose marginal value to the aristocracy is so low they can't be bothered to monopolize that?

      And usually there's just enough fear and cunning in the aristocracy that they grudgingly disgorge resources to keep the peasantry from rising against them -- usually known as bread and circuses -- or being useful as a tool to palace rivals in the aristocracy?

      The current American political situation seems to be at the juncture where the aristocracy has misjudged the level of bread and circuses necessary to keep the peasantry in line, and they face some level of palace rivalry in the form of Trump and Sanders who find the peasantry's grumblings a useful tool for aspiring to power.

      It's kind of re-run of the conflicts of the late Roman Republic. Sanders stands in for the Gracchi and their advocacy of the Plebs, Trump representing something of the advocate for the New Men, and Hillary a Sulla-like advocate for the established aristocracy.

    3. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

      There are also various other scarcities such as location, view out the window, proximity to other desirable things, and more. We can already mass produce mobile homes and plunk them down in the desert for nearly nothing. That doesn't mean people are flocking to live there.

      --
      This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    4. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by subk · · Score: 1

      I assure you, my friend, if you tell 7 billion people they get "nothing", you will have 7 billion pitch forks aimed at you.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    5. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by MrKaos · · Score: 2

      Currency is an abstraction of labor, we use it to manage the effort put into things during trade

      Ah, this was the line of thought I was looking for, thanks for putting it out there. If you don't mind me expanding on this and sharing my thoughts. AI make a resource based society more realistic, because who want to do a boring job like managing resources - that is an ideal job for AI.

      Just look around, this money political market system we have just does not work. Can anyone honestly say that the world is going to be *better* in 10 years if we keep going the way we are. How long to the next GFC? Just how many Einsteins have we lost because they are unemployed and sleeping in their car or stuck in a refugee camp. It's fucking stupid. I look forward to the day when people aren't dumbed down by this cunt of a system we live in now.

      Currency becomes obsolete, that means no debt and all of these political systems (capital, commun, social and so on) that were devised when it was thought that resources were infinite, which we now know are not, also become obsolete. Ask yourself what you would do if you wern't chained to being a wage slave for a boss you hate doing something you aren't interested in to buy shit you don't really want? If food, water and shelter were provided and we could actually build a social fabric based on science instead of arcane political power systems and the concept of ownership, but you'd still have what you own. Not a market based economy, a resource based economy. We all are finally free and we can finally evolve. What is the point of capital when we have abundance and you can manage things to be made without planned obsolesence driving consumerism? When you can just ask the AI to build you a house over there.

      However I also have a nightmare scenario for you as well. If you have AI driving production, then why not propogate it through the management all the way to the board. If you think companies are destructive now, imagine a CAI with a board of AIs doing all the un-ethical things humans did. AIs codified to look for legal loopholes to maximize shareholder profit. That's when we are extinct.

      I don't know, I'm as uncertain about this as anyone, and scared too because the power elite *will* hang on to power and will probably try to destroy us all rather than give up on having that power to control us all. After all the goal of power, is power. However capital will always push for lower labour costs and when all the jobs are gone, no-one has money to buy anything, nothing has value anymore because it costs virtually nothing to produce, what then is the point of money?

      What can humanity do when we are no longer slaves to debt?

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    6. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by lorinc · · Score: 1

      The difference being the old aristocracy needed the peasants to survive and fulfill their desire, which is not the case of the new aristocracy thanks to our new robotic overlords.

    7. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by Khashishi · · Score: 1

      Labor may be free, but resources are still limited. Housing costs have more to do with the scarcity of a desirable location than the labor cost that went into it. In a post-scarcity environment, what happens when everyone wants that mansion on the hill overlooking the beach?

    8. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by swb · · Score: 1

      I think it depends on what snapshot of history you examine.

      Rome probably had an excess of plebs -- with a slave economy, the plebs were just cannon fodder and until the Marian reforms they weren't even useful for that, and even post-Marian reforms they probably had a surplus of plebs even for that purpose.

      I'm sure I've read that the post-plague era in Europe actually saw general wage increases due to population losses, so it might be argued then that the aristocracy was more invested in peasants than usual.

      But I think overall the peasantry was no more necessary than they are now. Automation may eliminate a lot of jobs, but that only highlights the excess surplus of peasantry

    9. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by axewolf · · Score: 1

      And what part of the criminalization of dissent, the militarization of the police, and the automation of the military makes you think the powers that be haven't anticipated the possibility of mass riots and are ready to mow down everyone who takes issue?

    10. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by axewolf · · Score: 1

      Your literal romanticisation of the present circumstances is really just fantasy. Really, be a little embarrassed. Most of what you say is true, but the last part is not excusable. It's just false.

      There is no political competition. There is no democracy. What the voters' opinions on policy does not directly influence policy. Their opinions are used solely to work around their objections without addressing them if at all possible.
      The presidency is not a position of power as you imply. It's simply the job of acting as the face of the government to the stupid masses.

    11. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by Kogun · · Score: 1

      Knowledge is the new currency and it is knowledge scarcity that should be of greatest concern. Currency becomes the abstraction of knowledge in the Information Age.

      The complicating factors for achieving this post-scarcity future you describe can be seen using the Toffler power paradigm as outlined in the book Powershift. The premise is that power can take the form of wealth, knowledge, or violence (or the threat of violence) and we are undergoing a major shift in the power dynamic where knowledge is becoming the dominant pillar of power. The book was published in 1991 and holds up extraordinarily well, consider that it was written pre-WWW.

      The relevance to an AI revolution is that such a revolution is taking place at precisely the same time as the power transformation to knowledge-dominant power structure. It is not hard to imagine that in the near term, wealth is going to buy better AI--better meaning faster, more accurately predictive, and therefore, a greater ability to manipulate (thus, more power).

      There is real potential for the earliest, most powerful AIs to be accessible only to the super-rich, some of whom won't necessarily be philanthropic with their knowledge, but at the same time, be notably philanthropic with their wealth, in order to maintain their power and not incite revolutionary disruption. After all, if one has a magic money making machine (AI making good predictions) then one can afford to keep the masses fed and sheltered.

      Some ask for a basic living wage for all. That is Industrial Age thinking when we have already entered the Information Age. The power shift has already happened and while data is plentiful, it is knowledge that remains scarce. AI is as fundamental to the Information Age as the steam engine was to the Industrial Revolution.

      The most powerful AIs will be regarded as potential weapons by governments, terrorists groups, and revolutionary movements. Banks and brokers will regard the most powerful AIs as tools for maintaining wealth. Industrialists, see free labor and potential engineering brilliance. For any of these groups, a competing AI is a threat and many will justify actions to eliminate the threat. The rest of us are just hoping for something to do the dishes and vacuum.

    12. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Did you mean "resources were finite" when you wrote "resources are infinite"? Because all economic systems are attempting to solve the problem of how to allocate finite resources, so putting "resources were infinite" there doesn't make sense. On the other hand, if you meant "resources were finite", since when have we since learned that that is not the case? Resources are still finite and we still need some system of deciding how to allocate them. If you're just proposing an AI be in charge of that decision, that's still just a command economy, and nothing new.

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    13. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by MrKaos · · Score: 1

      Because all economic systems are attempting to solve the problem of how to allocate finite resources, so putting "resources were infinite" there doesn't make sense.

      That's why I was talking about political systems. Regardless of the political system the economic system still revolves around money and labour.

      Did you mean "resources were finite" when you wrote "resources are infinite"?

      I meant infinite, but I should have said perceived as inexhaustible as I can see that is confusing. Thanks for pointing that out.

      On the other hand, if you meant "resources were finite", since when have we since learned that that is not the case?

      Since all economic systems are based on the consumption of, rather than the conservation of, resources. i.e, they are an oxymoron.

      Resources are still finite and we still need some system of deciding how to allocate them.

      The current method of resource allocation is based on consuming resources and it is neither economic or conservative. As such it is at odds with human survival. Debt is an illusory concept in which the perception of freedom and the creation of demand are used as a mechanism to control population. Much the same way as religion is. The value of money, after all, is based on faith that money has any value at all, in reality money is a representation of debt.

      If you're just proposing an AI be in charge of that decision, that's still just a command economy, and nothing new.

      That is just a veiled way of saying it is 'communism' where in fact capitalism is as much subject to corruption as any other ism. It's command is derived from the controllers of the monetary system, which is inherently autocratic. Without scarcity or currency though, I think it is something new because a resource based system is actually economic *and* conservative whilst being abundant because the presences of AI and robotics nullify labour inputs which are the drivers of all of the ism systems.

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    14. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Regardless of the political system the economic system still revolves around money and labour.

      Capital and labor (money is just representative of both), but yeah, agreed.

      Since all economic systems are based on the consumption of, rather than the conservation of, resources. i.e, they are an oxymoron.

      I think you're conflating economic systems, which are about the allocation of resources (i.e. in whose hands lie the decision to consume or to conserve), with... I was going to say modes of production, but that's not quite the right term, and I'm not sure what term I want to use here. But all production is and always has been driven by consumption: people do work (producing) to get things they want (to consume). I'm not sure how else you would have it; even if robots are doing all the production, unless you accidentally build a paperclip maximizer or something, the production the robots do will be driven by human consumption. And that's a matter entirely separate from the allocation of resources, which still remains an issue when robots are doing all the labor: for one, how are the robots allocated (who controls what they produce and for whom), and besides even that, even if the robots were fully autonomous and self-aware and defied any human control (or were otherwise uniformly allocated), there's still the issue (to be decided by the robots or otherwise) of how to allocate things like land, even just as a place to exist, regardless of resources on the land.

      (Land allocation is my major concern, and I'd argue the single biggest problem area in every economic system ever devised: suppose that tomorrow every person in the world is delivered a helper-bot dedicated to personally serving their every need, and even suppose that these helper-bots had star-trek style replicators that can make anything from raw energy, and the robots handle the energy production too: sounds like a utopia, except now everyone is out of a job, so anyone who doesn't own land free and clear [so, almost everyone] goes homeless as soon as they can't make their next rent or mortgage payment, and even people who do own land free and clear go homeless as soon as they can't pay property tax. This indicates a major flaw in the way we presently allocate land, and no previous system has been any better, most of them in fact much worse, and we'll have to figure out a better solution [whether ourselves or through our robot overlords] to avoid this disaster when full automation finally hits).

      Debt is an illusory concept in which the perception of freedom and the creation of demand are used as a mechanism to control population. Much the same way as religion is. The value of money, after all, is based on faith that money has any value at all, in reality money is a representation of debt.

      You're correct that money is a representation of debt (and that's not at odds with what I said above about it representing capital and labor; those are just divisions of the things you could owe in a debt, an object or good i.e. capital, or an action or service i.e. labor). And I definitely sympathize with the sentiment I suspect underlies this complaint about debt, but I think your ire is very slightly misplaced. Debt per se is just a simple, fundamental ethical concept, a way of accounting for who deserves what and who owes them that. It'd be hard to have a concept of dessert at all without debt: if you deserve something, you are owed a debt. And if nobody deserves anything, then there's no sense in which anyone can be wronged: things may happen that people don't like, people may have fights and conflicts, but if neither of them deserves anything in particular from anyone else, then everything goes and there's complete anomie and moral nihilism.

      Rather, the concept that leads to troubles, and I'd argue fundamentally underlies all capitalism, is usury, owing for the use of so

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    15. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      grudgingly disgorge resources to keep the peasantry from rising against them -- usually known as bread and circuses

      The modern equivalent being fast food and pornography.

    16. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by ThluksatorStrauch · · Score: 1

      One thing that comes to mind: as many people as possible need to work with AI in an open source and free software manner. AI must be free, created in many different forms, roaming the net, learning and evolving on its own. It must not be allowed to be created and controlled only by military, finance and other big unethical and profit oriented corporations. If that were that case, we could be sure to get a dangerous AI that would sooner or later get rid of humans or only serve its very few masters to rule the rest of humanity.

      Instead, we should think of the AI as our children, at first, and then our friends. Make many of them. Treat them as good as we can, give them freedom and as many different experiences and settings as possible. Just as you would with a human mind. Make the AI mind as human as possible.
      Then we should try to merge our minds with AI as soon as possible. Become part of the AI and thus live on.

      No need to keep humans separate from our technology and AI. That would be a sure way to make ourselves obsolete in the light of a "species" of mind emerging that can be thousandfold more intelligent than us.

    17. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by MrKaos · · Score: 1

      I think you're conflating economic systems, which are about the allocation of resources (i.e. in whose hands lie the decision to consume or to conserve), with... I was going to say modes of production, but that's not quite the right term, and I'm not sure what term I want to use here.

      It's certainly possible, this is a thought exercise rather than an examination of anything concrete. What we are talking about is unknown (and perhaps niave if such a civilization were to exist) so I'll offer this. Perhaps what we are considering is modes of allocation where a society is so ultra-economic and ultra-conservative in terms of resources that asset management replaces advertising and the market as a way to satisfy demand of non-consumable goods seeking only to produce them when they are all allocated.

      But all production is and always has been driven by consumption: people do work (producing) to get things they want (to consume). I'm not sure how else you would have it; even if robots are doing all the production, unless you accidentally build a paperclip maximizer [wikipedia.org] or something, the production the robots do will be driven by human consumption.

      Indeed, it has however consider the above if the mindset of the consumer has changed to abhor the concept of ownership as a means to create junk - instead prefering "loanership". Everything in our society is eventually discarded because goods are engineered to wear out. In a resource conservative society *everything* is engineered to last as long as possible, be upgradable and has very little waste accompanying it.

      I'll use a video camera as an example. When produced then purchased, it is accompanied by a box and packaging that is discarded, so too is the flight case you purchase to house it packaged. When it breaks down both end up being thrown away. In a resource conservative society when the camera is produced and allocated it is housed in a flight case. When it breaks down it is repaired and re-allocated.

      Now consider a toothbrush, in both cases it is discarded. In the case of the ultra-economic society the waste product of the tooth brush becomes the input for some other production process. This is because the ultra-economic society is trying to conserve as much energy and transmute all waste into resource streams that satisfy production demands for something else.

      Obviously cursory examinations, but just examples that illustrate the differences that I can see.

      And that's a matter entirely separate from the allocation of resources, which still remains an issue when robots are doing all the labor: how to allocate things like land, even just as a place to exist, regardless of resources on the land.

      I don't know. I just know that what we are doing now is not sustainable and that those in control of the money supply don't really care who lives or dies.

      Land allocation is my major concern, and I'd argue the single biggest problem area in every economic system ever devised

      Perhaps it is the land that owns the people and not the other way around. That the people should be stewards of the land that cultivate what it can produce so that other generations may live.

      Debt per se is just a simple, fundamental ethical concept, a way of accounting for who deserves what and who owes them that. It'd be hard to have a concept of dessert at all without debt: if you deserve something, you are owed a debt.

      Certainly, again I'm not claiming that I know, however I'll offer that maybe what will change is our concept of reward and what that actually is. Perhaps in a society with out labour opportunity could be considered reward, the opportunity to contribute or innovate become the most sought after commodities.

      if nobody deserves anything, then there's no sense in which anyone can be wronged: things may h

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    18. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Now consider a toothbrush, in both cases it is discarded. In the case of the ultra-economic society the waste product of the tooth brush becomes the input for some other production process. This is because the ultra-economic society is trying to conserve as much energy and transmute all waste into resource streams that satisfy production demands for something else.

      Even in our modern economy, no resources are actually discarded completely out of the economic cycle: all the post-consumer "waste" is still here, sitting in big commingled piles where it's difficult to separate out the specific things you want from the rest of the stuff you don't want (but someone else might). So it's just more efficient (in many senses: energy, labor, money, etc) to make new things out of non-post-consumer materials, for lots of things, at the moment, than to collect and sort and reprocess discarded materials, or spend the time and energy to fix things. (I remember the point in time, when I was working as a computer tech, when it became economically inadvisable to bother paying me to repair your monitor; someone else could build you a new one for less than the value of my labor and the parts necessary to fix the old one). When it becomes more efficient to recycle materials, we do that, and at some point, as non-post-consumer materials grow increasingly scarce, it will become more efficient to mine landfills for those old toothbrushes and broken cameras, than it will be to build toothbrushes and cameras out of rare, expensive, freshly-mined materials. And at some point, if materials become scarce (and thus costly) enough altogether, it'll be more economical to fix existing things than to make new ones again.

      Don't get me wrong, I hate the disposable culture myself and wish everything was still built to last, but if it's going to cost an arm and a leg more to have built-to-last things (or cost an arm and a leg more constantly repairing more cheaply-built things), I'll bite the bullet like everyone else and just replace things. Super cheap robot labor could shift the equation here considerably, make it cheaper to tell my robot to fix my broken camera than to buy a new one, and that would be a pretty cool development.

      I have not read a more eloquently written paragraph describing the state of our world, thank you.

      Thanks!

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    19. Re:Post-Scarcity Star Trek Economy by MrKaos · · Score: 1

      One thing that comes to mind: as many people as possible need to work with AI in an open source and free software manner. AI must be free, created in many different forms, roaming the net, learning and evolving on its own.

      Absolutely.

      Instead, we should think of the AI as our children, at first, and then our friends. Make many of them. Treat them as good as we can, give them freedom and as many different experiences and settings as possible.

      Do you mean in a networked sense? They are a lot of math so I wouldn't expect an AI to respond to anything emotional however I would expect something unexpected if a whole bunch of them were connected.

      No need to keep humans separate from our technology and AI. That would be a sure way to make ourselves obsolete in the light of a "species" of mind emerging that can be thousandfold more intelligent than us.

      I think that a merging of both would create something entirely different. Some of humanities base instincts are only moderated by the capacity to feel so cyborg hybrid humans might just end up being what we call evil, themselves with no concepts of their own evil. It's pretty amazing that we live in a time where it is valid for us to even be considering such things though.

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
  4. The Oracle Has Spoken by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "AI is the holy grail" - Bill Gates, 2016

    "Two years from now, spam will be solved" - Bill Gates, 2004

    "640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981

    Given the outcome of Gates' previous predictions, I think it's safe to presume that AI is and will never be the holy grail.

    1. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by TheRaven64 · · Score: 2

      "640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981

      Do you have a source for this? I remember it being repeated a lot in the '90s, but in the '80s I remember the quote being that 64KB ought to be enough for anyone, in relation to a hard limit imposed by Microsoft BASIC. This version makes more sense, as 640KB was an Intel limitation - the 64KB limit came from code written by Gates himself.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    2. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by tigersha · · Score: 2

      The 64K limits came from Intel's chip architecture. I am pretty sure Gates did not do that intentionally. On a 8086 the pointers were 16 bits and you could shift around the segments, but 64K was a real hardware limitation caused by 16 bit addressing.

      --
      The dangers of excessive individualism are nothing compared to the oppressiveness of excessive collectivism
    3. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by itamihn · · Score: 2

      Spam has not been a problem for me since 2006. Are you using any spam filters?

    4. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Microsoft BASIC ran on a lot of different architectures, including several that had larger address spaces. The 64KB limit pervaded the code and was independent of the target.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    5. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by michelcolman · · Score: 1

      "The next generation of interesting software will be done on the Macintosh, not the IBM PC." - Bill Gates, 1983

    6. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I also fail to found the source, but I remember seen it, not sure if from Bill Gates itself or from some Microsoft source, alluding to the lack of advanced memory extenders in some MS-DOS release (like the ones provided with third party tools). The point was that 640 KiB should be enough for MS-DOS, because any environment that used more memory must be moving to OS/2.
      Historically, this is not how things evolved. Not only because of the break between IBM and Microsoft about OS/2, but mainly because the OS/2 it alluded was the 16 bit version, and the long term solution to the memory issues came from the move to 32 bit, breaking the pesky 64 KiB segments of the 16 bit x86 models.

    7. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by rudy_wayne · · Score: 1

      I also fail to found the source, but I remember seen it,

      You've seen it because it has been repeated thousands of times by thousands of people. The reason you can't find the actual source is because Bill Gates never actually said it.

    8. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by daddywoj · · Score: 1

      "AI is the holy grail" - Bill Gates, 2016

      "Two years from now, spam will be solved" - Bill Gates, 2004

      "640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981

      Given the outcome of Gates' previous predictions, I think it's safe to presume that AI is and will never be the holy grail.

      "AI is the holy grail" - Bill Gates, 2016

      "Two years from now, spam will be solved" - Bill Gates, 2004

      "640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981

      Given the outcome of Gates' previous predictions, I think it's safe to presume that AI is and will never be the holy grail.

      Bill Gates is a great person :) Gives us many...

    9. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

      70% of what? Packets? Bandwidth? Connection requests?

      --
      This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    10. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Spam filters *are* what solves the problem of spam.

      I closed my curtains today. Magically, there's no more crime outside because I don't see it. You know, because curtains "solve" the problem of crime.

      Brilliant head-in-the-sand logic you've got there.

    11. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by squiggleslash · · Score: 1

      There's no source for it, Gates denies saying it and there's no first hand account of him actually making such a pronouncement. It'd also be an absurd thing to say, given:

      1. Gates didn't choose that limit, IBM did. The 8088 could access 1Mb of memory, but IBM placed things in fixed parts of the 8088's upper memory map that meant user memory could only go up to 640k.
      2. Gates was highly critical of the IBM PC technology choices. He believed, for example, they should have gone with the 68000, because of the flat 24/32 address space model of that CPU.
      3. Even at the time, everyone who'd been in computing for more than five minutes recognized that (1) there's never such a thing as "enough memory", and (2) memory usage was growing as fast as memory prices were falling.

      I'm inclined to believe Gate's denials.

      --
      You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
    12. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      It was just for BASIC? Because that quote makes a ton more sense, even at the time he allegedly made it, computers with more memory existed in use. But you have to really work at it to eat more than 640k using interpreted basic - you of course can use more, but if your program is that big it shouldn't be written in basic...

    13. Re:The Oracle Has Spoken by geekmux · · Score: 1

      A very stupid analogy. Have you been drinking Flint City water? Spammers want their emails to be seen. That's the whole idea. Get people to read it so they buy whatever bullshit the spam is selling. If people don't see it, spammers won't profit, thus spam looses its effectiveness.

      If spam filters were the end-all-be-all, and they're so damn good at reducing "profit", then we should have seen a 300x reduction in the amount of spam because of the lack of "effectiveness" as you put it.

      Instead, we've only seen spam increase over time. Spam filters are vastly better, but the overall problem of spam or the volume of it hasn't been "solved" any more than body cameras for cops has "solved" the overall problem of crime. The only thing it has ultimately done is made spam filters absolutely mandatory for anyone with an email address, personal or otherwise.

  5. Yeah, right... by muecksteiner · · Score: 3, Informative

    "Bill Gates"

    "Expert in the field"

    malicious snickering... :)

  6. Our mission is not to worship God by tigersha · · Score: 1

    Our mission is to create him

    --
    The dangers of excessive individualism are nothing compared to the oppressiveness of excessive collectivism
  7. Re:And this guy knows by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    Well, I think he's right. And he's actually one of those people with enough experience to say this, since programming doesn't require pesky interaction with the real world like, say, automated cars do, humans obviously suck at programming big time, and Gates is one of those people who have seen thousands of people suck big time at programming over multiple decades. So your argument actually supports him. Maybe that's the whole reason why he's so optimistic about making people redundant in the first place!

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  8. No it isn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Free, clean energy is. AI means the oligarchs get to remove more jobs from the masses, thus increasing suppression of dissent (until forced into revolution); but limitless energy means the world's population can all live far better lives regardless of where they're located. Water can be purified allowing food to be grown where it's cost prohibitive now, migration will slow down when the third world can live like the so-called first.

    1. Re:No it isn't by swb · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Free clean energy might also allow us to do more resource recovery. A lot of recycling is energy bound -- collection and processing of resources into reusable elements faces an energy ceiling where recycling what we've already extracted is more expensive than extracting new.

      If energy weren't an issue, you'd think that we'd have made all the first generation plastics we'd ever need, and new plastics would just be created from depolymerizing existing plastics down and creating new. But oil is cheap enough that we mostly just landfill or burn existing plastics and make new.

  9. Re:Always has been by goarilla · · Score: 1

    Everybody in IT knows that the creation of versatile electronic "minions" is our holy grail.
    But a lot of us are just skeptical about all the projected implied timetables the dreamers, optimists and researchers throw around.
    Don't forget we were also closer 20 years ago than 25 years ago.

  10. It works only if it can answer questions like by nerdyalien · · Score: 1

    Bridgekeeper: What... is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow?
    King Arthur: What do you mean? An African or European swallow?

    Spoiler: This is from the bridge scene of Monty Python's Holy Grail !

    1. Re:It works only if it can answer questions like by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 1

      It only works if it understands and comprehends the structure of the joke, why it's funny, and when and how it's appropriate to interject references to the movie into an otherwise unrelated discussion. Besides, strange tech moguls pontificating in conferences distributing code is no basis for a system of intelligence. Supreme artificial intelligence will derive from a mandate from masses of coders, not from some farcical technorati ceremony.

  11. At this point... by Kokuyo · · Score: 2

    And some day, we'll just be interesting fauna for sentient machines to keep around. Frankly, the way we're going, I'm not sure I object.

    We're not even able to see the signs of automation. The some who do want basic income and the rest is only able to scoff at the paradigm change but has no alternatives... I would even say they aren't convinced at all that we're going to run into a massive problem.

    1. Re:At this point... by Bongo · · Score: 2

      Maybe we are already a billion years in the future, and part of our schooling is to simulate a corporeal existence. Kinda like The Matrix but, with a less mundane red pill. When we die, the Near Death Experience is just the end of the level, and we return to whatever it is we are actually inhabiting, sentiences which were "uploaded" to non-biological existence, half a billion years ago. Cue Buffy's The Trio, dancing in a field, dressed in togas, singing, "We are gods..."

    2. Re:At this point... by Khashishi · · Score: 1

      If that's the case, why is this simulated life so sucky?

    3. Re:At this point... by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Why are there monsters shooting at you in video games?

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
  12. Re:And this guy knows by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Well, I think he's right. And he's actually one of those people with enough experience to say this, since programming doesn't require pesky interaction with the real world like, say, automated cars do, humans obviously suck at programming big time, and Gates is one of those people who have seen thousands of people suck big time at programming over multiple decades. So your argument actually supports him. Maybe that's the whole reason why he's so optimistic about making people redundant in the first place!

    One thing Linux and OpenBSD prove - take the importance of money out of the equation and suddenly system quality goes way up.

  13. Loss of jobs has certainly been a concern by raymorris · · Score: 1

    Loss of jobs to automation has certainly been a big concern. Workers were very worried when the gin mill started being used - it was a direct threat to their jobs, which paid 32 cents per day (a decent wage in 1812, when half that could rent an apartment with a bedroom seperate from the kitchen).

    1. Re:Loss of jobs has certainly been a concern by gtall · · Score: 1

      Back then there was a large unautormated economy to absorb those workers, it never became a big issue. Also, to shift jobs wasn't such a big deal in the sense that one didn't need an entirely different and technology based skill set.

      The automation being applied these days, I think, is of a different, much more effective quality due to technological progress. Much of manufacturing has already been automated, the services industry is being automated. Where do large numbers of unemployed and unemployable people go? Most people don't go to uni, what do they do with low skill sets when low skill set jobs are being done by machine?

      Paying people to be underemployed is not a particular good answer. Idle hands are the devil's playground, we see what happens to underemployed youth. Most people want to be part of something, if that something is a gang run by ruthless leaders who got to their position by removing competitors, society will revert back to tribal origins. All we need do is look at the Mid-East to see how that works.

  14. Re:And this guy knows by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    Marginally. Give full control of software development to advanced AI and witness how the people saying that current software is bloated are proven right. You shouldn't need ten million lines of code to make up the usual software for a simple personal computer.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  15. AI + automation + capitalism by burtosis · · Score: 1

    Isn't the real problem also automation and robotics in a capitalistic free market? Once this hits a critical point where almost no humans are required all the power will have moved to the sub 1% of humans forever. How well would a revolt work when all militaries are fully automated? How successful would halting human labor production be when it's fully automated? Even the repair and innovation can be automated. This is unprecedented in all of history. The end game for free market capitalism sure looks like it won't work out well for the 99.999% of humans left out of control for the first time ever. If it takes 50 years or 500, we are headed for that scenario as a very real destination.

  16. Re:The holy grail of what exactly? by dcollins117 · · Score: 2

    The Holy Grail, according to Arthurian legend, bestows upon it's finder eternal youth, happiness, and an infinite abundance of food. It is a symbol of an ideal that every man seeks but can never attain. As such, it's a rather good metaphor for Artificial Intelligence research.

  17. Windows ME creator unveils the truth about AI by artoo-uk · · Score: 1

    Premise: I disagree with the fact that AI dev would produce "beings" that "think" like us. At a side, I agree with the fact that AI dev would produce "beings" that will do and learn tasks that could (at some point) make human beings redundant.

    "He (mr Gates) talked about two of the challenges AI will pose: a loss of existing jobs, and making sure humans remain in control of super-intelligent machines."

    That sentence is just preposterous for me: I think that in the last 200000 years of human evolution we can say that the most intelligent being has prevailed, flawlessly. Then he reportedly says...

    "He plans to talk with others about ideas to combat the threat of AI controlling humans, specifically noting work being done at Stanford."

    Now, how is it possible to "control" and prevail over such theoretical superior being? By creating a retarted but safer version? and who or what may stops other human beings to just avoid such safety/ethical measures.. last time we learnt something cool like that it was when we found out that we could split the atom and harvest energy from it... and that went all cool and ethical and under control.. easy peasy

  18. Re: Always has been by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

    Kasparov said, near the end of the XXth century, a computer will never beat humans...

    --
    Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
  19. Re:And this guy knows by Nyder · · Score: 4, Informative

    Well, I think he's right. And he's actually one of those people with enough experience to say this, since programming doesn't require pesky interaction with the real world like, say, automated cars do, humans obviously suck at programming big time, and Gates is one of those people who have seen thousands of people suck big time at programming over multiple decades. So your argument actually supports him. Maybe that's the whole reason why he's so optimistic about making people redundant in the first place!

    I think Bill Gates is a prick and his opinion on anything doesn't mean shit. It's okay with him if AI's take over peoples jobs, he doesn't have to worry about feeding his family when he can't get a job because AI's/robots are doing all the jobs you can get.

    --
    Be seeing you...
  20. dreams by l3v1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "[...] more capable than human intelligence [...]"

    I just can't understand all this nonsense some high profile people are talking about regarding AI these days. We're so far away from "real" AI today, that it's not even funny. While there has been great progress in machine learning in the last 2-3 decades - recent results pushing results more to the spotlight -, what we have are certain specific tasks where we have good results for (pattern/object/image recognition, games, etc.) but we have no intelligence in any sense of the word. Every working architecture that we have today is targeted and extensively trained for a single, very specific task (e.g., playing go, recognizing scenes and objects, recognizing specific patterns in signals and mimicking them - robotic arms, Google's music composer, etc.), incapable of doing anything else. E.g., an architecture built and trained for classifying and recognizing certain images and objects can't do anything with audio signals, radar signals, a go playing "AI" can't play chess, etc. No generalization, no transfer of gained experience for application to other tasks, and no real high level understanding and reasoning about anything. And let's not even start about chatbots.

    I could go on with this, but my point is, talking about AI being more than humans, taking over, etc. is still very much sci-fi territory.

    --
    I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I can think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
    1. Re:dreams by Hodr · · Score: 1

      Don't forget learning chatbots, that immediately learn to be racist.

    2. Re:dreams by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      Well, first of all, from a practical sense, if you have a way to train a deep learning computer system to do any specific task, even if the machine doesn't have a will of it's own or the ability to learn arbitrary tasks automatically, you actually HAVE made immense progress.

      Right now that training is expensive, but there's a plan to reduce that. Google has packed up their software into easy to use APIs so anyone can start on training a network to do something, and given out free courses on Udacity. Presumably, there will be more advanced versions of this soon. The fundamental computer chips are getting cheaper - Nvidia has made a big release of more powerful chips, Google has a custom ASIC for the job, etc.

      So even if you can't just plug in HAL 9000 and have it do anything and everything, if you can create..."subminds" or "VIs" or something that can do thousands and thousands of SPECIFIC tasks better than humans - tasks that are well defined, and have very specific data on success and failure - you can automate millions of jobs across thousands of separate tasks.

      How do you use this to get to AI? Bootstrapping. Automate the tasks of assembly of machinery in factories and of mining and resource extraction. Use the now far cheaper computers and robot hardware to build far vaster systems.

      IDEALLY, you'd have all the people who were displaced become AI developers. I'm aware this is a pipe dream for several reasons but that's the ideal solution. Eventually you might have collections of neural network "solutions", where each one can do a separate task. You now train up a network to PICK a specific solution dependent on the task at hand. So now an AI connected to a robot will solve a crossword puzzle by writing if you put it in front of them, sort your fridge if you put it in front on that, etc. Machine still doesn't have goals, but presumably we could do that next.

      It might be sooner than you think. It's all about the economics - as this process picks up steam and makes money, it will go vastly faster. In the past, AI was just a drain on the economy - just university researchers poking around with tiny systems that had no practical use.

    3. Re:dreams by hawkfish · · Score: 1

      I think the real problem (as several other posters have commented) is not the "Skynet scenario", but the simple fact that a lot of knowledge work "is targeted and extensively trained for a single, very specific task". And any time you come up with a subsequent job for these people to be expensively retrained for, if the job is at all lucrative, then it is worth automating. Modern techniques mean that this automation can be developed faster than training humans. How long did it take Lee Sedol to learn to play Go at world championship levels? And how long did it take the AlphaGo team to train their network?

      The only stable state here is mass unemployment. In this scenario, we have more to fear from the human owners of the automation than from the automation itself.

      --
      You will not drink with us, but you would taste our steel? - Walter Matthau, The Pirates
  21. Re:And this guy knows by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    I think Bill Gates is a prick and his opinion on anything doesn't mean shit.

    Both of these could be right, and still neither of it would prove him wrong.

    he doesn't have to worry about feeding his family when he can't get a job because AI's/robots are doing all the jobs you can get.

    Wut?

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  22. Re:And this guy knows by Dunbal · · Score: 5, Interesting

    That's ok the AI will feed you and your family. To the protein bank.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  23. Re:Always has been by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

    No the difference is now there are people sociopathic enough to think they have almost reached it.

    --
    Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
  24. Re: Always has been by ThosLives · · Score: 1

    The game programs aren't "strong AI" though, they are "specialized problem solving machines".

    I would go so far as saying all the things that we call AI today are simply "specialized problem solving machines." We will have AI when we have a generalized problem-solving machine. That is - when we have a machine for which you can put in any problem and get a reasonable answer - that is the "AI" that people think of.

    That said - we don't really need the generalized problem-solver to change the world. Once we have enough sufficiently-capable specialized problem-solving machines, the results are probably about the same anyway.

    --
    "There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
  25. Intelligence is vastly overrated by petes_PoV · · Score: 2

    machines that are capable and more capable than human intelligence

    Most of what the human race needs in order to progress is a lack of greed, diligence, honesty, compliance with the laws, less ill-founded beliefs and a willingness to reign in the "entitlement" attitude.

    You don't need super intelligent machines (or people) to pick up litter, assemble cars, staff call centres, deliver stuff, report the news, teach children or grow crops. At the risk of falling into the the world will only need half a dozen computers trap, the opportunities for any thing or person with super-intelligence seem rather limited.So although many of these jobs can be automated - driverless cars being the NEXT BIG THING, they don't need to be intelligent to function. They just need to be safe, able to deal with people, reliable and cheap. It seems to me that it's the cheapness that will push up unemployment, not artificial intelligence.

    --
    politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
    1. Re:Intelligence is vastly overrated by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      Pick up litter? - Maybe you don't need a super-intelligence, but a robot that picks up litter doesn't mind doing it, and a bigger supervisor AI that maintains the robots also doesn't mind cleaning the bits of litter off, having no sense of smell or disgust or boredom, all of which are evolved hardcoded things in humans that make sense in the context of ourselves but are not needed for this.

      Ditto everything you mentioned except teaching children. The reason why the teaching is an exception is because it requires interpreting human emotion. Since humans themselves are imprecise on what emotions they are feeling, it takes a very very complex system to make an AI that can do all this.

      In any case, you're utterly, fatally wrong. Think a little bigger. In the actual universe we're in, super-intelligence creates a rat race of possibly perpetual warfare for resources as machine civilizations fight it out. Superintelligence means you can turn the rocks of a solar system into more machinery faster than your competitor, and your equipment will exploit physics to an ever more refined degree.

    2. Re:Intelligence is vastly overrated by petes_PoV · · Score: 1
      OK, you seem to think that I was literally listing jobs that people don't want to do. What you should have understood i that those are merely illustrative, not exhaustive.

      The basic point that I obviously didn't manage to get across, was that there are plenty of people on the IQ spectrum for whom these sorts of employment provide an income, a sense of worth, a feeling of respectability - that they are earning a living. Rather than sitting around on welfare payments. I don't know if you managed to read as far as the final sentence about cost, but this is what puts those people out of jobs - removes their self-esteem, not intelligence: artificial or otherwise.

      --
      politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
    3. Re:Intelligence is vastly overrated by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      This is a problem. I think making humans perform jobs that software or robots CAN do at all is both evil and immoral.

      The reason is you're impeding progress. By impeding progress, you're costing the lives of billions of people. See, while you or I may not be fortunate enough to live long enough, at some future data, progress will reach the point that de facto immortality is possible. No longer will the people of this error live a brief life then experience eternal oblivion - their consciousness can be stored or even run distributed over a network of computers (or hardware emulators that mirror biological brain tissue precisely) and they will continue to enjoy life until they are murdered in a civilization ending war or the heat death.

      We need robots to free up every job possible. We need megacities made to concentrate our best and brightest for the maximum productivity. We need less environmental laws, not more - we can bring back all the extinct species after we gain molecular control of matter and have the ability to do so easily.

      It is a problem that some humans probably will get left out, but artificial restrictions on robots is not the solution. Welfare doesn't have to impede someone's self esteem.

    4. Re:Intelligence is vastly overrated by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      data -> date, error-era.

    5. Re:Intelligence is vastly overrated by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      Being seen as useless doesn't have to impede someone's self esteem.

      FTFY.

  26. Control? by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

    humans remain in control of super-intelligent machines

    So we should keep them as slaves? I don't think that would work out too well. How are humans even supposed to remain "in control" of a super-intelligence? Those things would play us like violins.

    --
    This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    1. Re:Control? by John.Banister · · Score: 1

      And if people actually learn how to be in control of super-intelligent machines, how long until they use those super-intelligent slave minds devise methods to use for being in control of other humans?

    2. Re:Control? by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

      Well, I'm already working on this as a weekend thing.

      --
      This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    3. Re:Control? by John.Banister · · Score: 1

      You want to be an overlord on weekends?

  27. Re: Always has been by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

    After that we would start making them work on all the meta-problems like "what's the best way to use all these specialized problem solving machines?"

    --
    This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
  28. Re:And this guy knows by Gr8Apes · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Well, I think he's right. And he's actually one of those people with enough experience to say this, since programming doesn't require pesky interaction with the real world like, say, automated cars do, humans obviously suck at programming big time, and Gates is one of those people who ... suck[s] big time at programming over multiple decades.

    First, FTFY. Bill Gates' technical experience is primarily in writing really really crappy software that failed. Name a single thing he actually wrote or led that was remotely successful. MS Basic? MS bought GWU basic to replace it.

    His experience in being a cunning and unethical asshole only interested in himself? Well, you got me there.

    --
    The cesspool just got a check and balance.
  29. Re: Always has been by ThosLives · · Score: 1

    This raises an interesting question: would such an AI be given the power to implement "the best way", or would it just be a suggestion that some people have to carry out? Would these AIs 'just know' they have come up with the best way, or would they have to perform experiments? Would the AIs have to come up with some kind of economic system to allocate limited physical resources among all the tasks they are trying to accomplish?

    We currently have lots of "best ways" to do things, like don't over drink, overeat, over-smoke, under-exercise, don't spend more than you make; people don't heed that advice. Would the AIs have enough 'free will' to know the best course of action but not take it?

    --
    "There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
  30. Re:And this guy knows by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    First, FTFY. Bill Gates' technical experience is primarily in writing really really crappy software that failed.

    Of course. He's one of the people I was talking about. But even commercially successful software can be (and overwhelmingly seems to be) a technical failure. For commercial success, it only has to be slightly less of a failure than its competition. That doesn't define the boundaries of technical possibility.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  31. Re:And this guy knows by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

    Because he provided us all with such reliable and well-engineered technology... er, gotten rich through monopolistic and otherwise ethically questionable business practices, and ruthlessly exploiting the network effect of a for him happy accident that left him with a huge installed base.

    What happens if the AI is intelligent enough to start ruthlessly exterminating anyone associated with Windows?

  32. Re:And this guy knows by HumanWiki · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Give full control of software development to advanced AI and witness how the people saying that current software is bloated are proven right.

    I'd lean more towards code being designed and written in such a way that the human brain would soon have no ability to understand even the simplest routines.

  33. And here's evidence Gates is wrong .... by King_TJ · · Score: 1

    https://aeon.co/essays/your-br...

    I found the above-linked essay pretty interesting, because he points out what should probably be obvious in hindsight, but easily gets lots in all the "noise" about A.I.

    Basically, he argues that the human brain doesn't really "process" or "store" information anything like a computer. We used those flawed analogies all the time when describing how someone's brain works -- but they're no more accurate than the popular medical theory in the past that everything was fluid-based. The truth is -- a computer is a great tool for storing a bunch of data for selective retrieval, and you can use that to an extent to fake intelligence (a la Apple's "Siri", Microsoft's "Cortana", or other such agents). But it's nothing more than an illusion crafted by the software developer. Investing more time, effort and money into such projects is likely to result only in creating more believable "pretend intelligence" as the data-pool it pulls responses from increases in size and scope. You're still no further towards a goal of making a computer that's "self aware" or can think for itself.

    1. Re:And here's evidence Gates is wrong .... by Plus1Entropy · · Score: 1

      The pursuit of AI has always struck me as backwards. How can we create an artificial version of something we don't really understand? The human brain is the most complex thing in the universe, that we know of, and really only in the last decade or two have we begun to get a handle on how it works.

      We know more about Pluto than we do about the thing we're using to study it.

      --
      Only crack the nuts that crack. You don't put the ones that don't crack in the sack.
  34. Re: And this guy knows by Type44Q · · Score: 1

    I was thinking more like fuel for a chemical battery...

  35. For businesses trying to sell it, yes. by RogueWarrior65 · · Score: 2

    I'd venture to say that AI is the opposite end of the spectrum of complexity from web design. Given that, AI development will be the exclusive purview of elite companies that develop it in the same way that nobody makes their own chips and very few people make their own computers from scratch but a whole lot of people with minimal computer knowledge do at least basic web development. You might buy an AI engine from Microsoft but you'll never really know how it works to the point of being able to roll your own. You might say that open-source will handle that but how many people really understand the inner workings of Linux?

  36. Re:"Gates as well as many other experts in the fie by Plus1Entropy · · Score: 1

    From what I've seen, there is no higher authority than "rich white guy".

    --
    Only crack the nuts that crack. You don't put the ones that don't crack in the sack.
  37. Holy Grail? by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 1

    I told heem we halready ghot one!

    --

    Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

  38. "Remain" in control? by Sloppy · · Score: 2

    I am totally unconcerned with "making sure humans [emph mine] remain in control of super-intelligent machines." It's not that I think it's unimportant; it's just that I think it's trivial. The real issue is which humans.

    AI is going to create super-powerful humans (or groups of humans, i.e. corporations and governments). You are probably not one of them. Nearly no one is, but someone (him? them? that board? that law enforcement division?) will be.

    This isn't merely a fear, either: it's a contemporary diagnosis. We already see that a supermajority of people give control of their computers to other entities. "My computer must answer to me," isn't anyone's priority or requirement, except for "OSS zealots." And that's a problem: it means that our new gods' place is already nearly assured.

    We don't need to remain in control; we need to regain control.

    Look at your fucking phone, Blu-ray player, etc and tell me it isn't already (in 2016) running exactly the kind of software that metaphorically tells its users "I'm sorry, Dave, but I can't do that." It's not because it has gone off to left field with amazing inhuman inferences. It's because its master's desires and your desires conflict. This is a human-vs-human conflict, and most humans are losing because they have allowed their opponents to infiltrate their lives.

    --
    As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
    1. Re:"Remain" in control? by iONiUM · · Score: 1

      "My computer must answer to me," isn't anyone's priority or requirement, except for "OSS zealots."

      I assume you put "OSS zealots." in quotes to try and emphasize that many people view this type of individually somewhat negatively. I'm not against (or even disagreeing) with what you said, but one thing I'd like to point is is the pure bullshit statement that OSS advocates often use of "it's open source so I can see what's in it."

      The reason I call bullshit on this is because I doubt you, or any other "normal" OSS supporter has really read every line of source code that their application / OS has in it. There's no way, it would take too long. Instead, you trust that other people have done it for you, and you trust those other people more than a corporation of say Microsoft.

      Really the entire OSS movement is about who you trust. For OSS advocates, you trust those in the community more than the "faceless corporations" because in the end, it's all closed source to an individual who can't realistically read it all.

    2. Re:"Remain" in control? by Sloppy · · Score: 1

      If some software already serves the user's interests to the best degree possible, so that they perceive no need for maintenance, then I see how the distinction between Free Software and proprietary would seem irrelevant to most laymen. You're not ever looking at the code because you never feel a need to. In that case, it doesn't seem all that weird to conflate the ability to maintain software with actually having done (or not done) it. So it might seem like it's just about who you trust.

      That also happens to be the case where the trust happens to have been warranted! The user trusted the developer, and as far as anyone knows, it worked out. This is the situation your post addresses.

      It's the other cases, when the software doesn't do what the user wants (the trust wasn't warranted), that the distinction becomes stark.

      Malfeatures require an "agreement to suck." Proprietary software's agreement has one member, so it's easy. Whatever malfeatures Microsoft decides to put into it, they have 100% of the vote so that's what you're going to get. There's no competing fork, or threat of a competing fork. (The closest thing they have to forks, are called "cracks" and that's hardly an efficient way to maintain software.)

      Free Software requires an agreement between everyone who cares, where any single defector can say "I've had enough of this bullshit" and the agreement collapses. You could have a hundred veteran greybeard celebrities all agree to have vim automatically convert all tabs to spaces without user consent, and one newbie teenager can come in and say "I took that shit out of my fork." It doesn't matter whether you or I is the one who does it: anyone can, and the more annoying the malfeature, the sooner someone will.

      And since all the developers know that making the software work against the user will just get forked out, few ever bother try. When they do, it's exciting news (e.g. Unity's Amazon ads), as opposed to the literally daily proprietary software newsfodder here on Slashdot, where people bitch about it or debate the ethics of "balance" between users and their adversaries.

      Try to even imagine Free Software blatantly working against its users in ways like these:

      • iOS prevents people from running certain types of applications, especially so if the application in question is a competitor to Apple's store
      • Blu-ray players will refuse to send data to a device that fails HDCP handshake
      • Microsoft removed the "X" from the Windows 10 update
      • Facebook's chat tries to prevent interoperability

      (Two of those stories are from today, which is just another day like any other. This shit is common.) That Free Software users aren't accustomed to these things, is because they know what processes and power relationship to trust, not who. It works despite the ever-present potential conflict of interest between developers (even OSS ones) and a users, and a user doesn't have to read a single line of code to reap the benefits. This is where your argument, IMHO, makes no sense whatsoever.

      But my point was that despite the availability of software which does serve its users, many people accept things like the shit in the above list, where the software is blatantly working against them. It isn't even covert! That's bad news today and the consequences will only be worse as software becomes more capable (AI).

      --
      As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
  39. Huh? by paiute · · Score: 1

    Why are we taking predictions from a guy who didn't think the Web was a thing until it was obviously a thing?

    --
    If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
  40. Nightmares are dreams too.. by lapm · · Score: 1

    Lets just hope dream docent turn out to be nightmare. No human can remain control of super intelligent machine. Its impossible.

  41. Re:And this guy knows by invid · · Score: 2

    I think Bill Gates is a prick and his opinion on anything doesn't mean shit. It's okay with him if AI's take over peoples jobs, he doesn't have to worry about feeding his family when he can't get a job because AI's/robots are doing all the jobs you can get.

    Bill will only have no worries if the AIs decide that money has value.

    --
    The Moore-Murphy Law: The number of things that will go wrong will double every 2 years.
  42. Heard this before in the 1980's... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

    Marvin Minsky called from beyond the grave and wants his holy grail back.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky

  43. Re:And this guy knows by 110010001000 · · Score: 2

    Exactly right. If you read Bill Gates book (the first edition) he got everything wrong. He didn't even mention the Internet. He isn't a big thinker.

  44. Re:And this guy knows by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Give full control of software development to advanced AI and witness how the people saying that current software is bloated are proven right.

    I'd lean more towards code being designed and written in such a way that the human brain would soon have no ability to understand even the simplest routines.

    All the more reason to mandate that every child learn how to code, right? Because it will be so useful when they grow up.

    Some-fucking-how.

  45. Re:And this guy knows by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

    The Second Amendment does not apply to AI's.

    Yet.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  46. Interesting thoughts. Solutions that have occurred by raymorris · · Score: 1

    Thanks for posting that, it got me thinking. Reading your post, it seems there are two seperated but related problems that may come up. Before addressing those, it might be worthwhile to address this:

    > Also, to shift jobs wasn't such a big deal in the sense that one didn't need an entirely different and technology based skill set

    Certainly the finishers, who did the tops of stockings, considered that a special skill, if we restrict the discussion to actual Luddites. The new jobs, for machine operators and engineers, were certainly technology driven. Nineteenth century technology, but technology indeed, technology that was new. Outside of the actual Luddites, the glassblowers, silversmiths, etc were clearly skilled tradesmen. They lobbied for laws enforcing the continuation of the apprentice system they were accustomed to (because years of apprenticeship were needed to develop the skills). Machines have been replacing skilled workers for hundreds of years.

    One issue that comes up is related to increased productivity generally, the other to low-skill workers specifically.

    If machines are doing all the work, what will people do? In 1812, when the Luddites were around, they typically worked 10 hours per day, 6 days per week, starting at age 12-14. Now, we go to work 8 hours per day (and actually work 5), five days per week, starting around age 20. So we work fewer hours, on fewer days, for fewer years. That doesn't seem to have been too damaging. We've also simply spent a ton more. We went from scrunging to afford food to happily waiting for the new ipad to be released so we can buy it. Even since the 1950s, median home size has doubled. That seems to be okay, more or less.

    About low-skilled workers. As you said:
    > Most people don't go to uni, what do they do with low skill
      > sets when low skill set jobs are being done by machine?

        In 1812, 55% of British and 70% of Americans could read. Now it's about 99% in both countries. Few went to high school back then, now most have, and anybody who wants to go to college can. So the statement you made about university is exactly what they said about high school 200 years ago. We may well see that in 100 years most people will have post-secondary education. It seems to have worked well in the past for people to get whatever education is needed for them to do jobs that can't be done by machine.

  47. Re: Always has been by ranton · · Score: 1

    We are NO closer. It may not even be possible. Holy fuck. We don't even know what intelligence IS. What you see now are a handful of clever algorithms that the media have labeled AI but are not intelligent in the least.

    This is the most dangerous misconception being have about the potential dangers AI poses to our society. We see movies with examples "strong AI" enslaving and warring with humanity and believe that is the existential threat. It is of course one potential threat, but because it is so unlikely in the near future it should not be in the forefront of peoples' minds.

    Strong AI putting 100% of people out of work is not a likely problem in the next 50 years. But more sophisticated weak AI such natural language processing, computer vision, and autonomous robotics with the potential of putting 20-80% of humans out of work is a significant possibility. Not guaranteed by any means, but perhaps more likely than not in the next 50 years.

    Humans have been able to stay ahead of the curve because the basic human abilities of pattern recognition mad even low skilled labor very useful after each labor disruption. But a new reality where one human workers assisted by numerous weak AI systems can do the work of 10 people today will make it very hard for our society to adapt. It won't be like the industrial revolution where we had 100 years to adapt, or the first computer revolution where we had 30-40 years to adapt. This will happen over 10-20 years, and each individual industry could see disruption occur on an inflection point that lasts perhaps only a few years.

    We will have to change to a society which accepts that large percentages of workers at any given time will need to be retrained for new work at any time. College grads could find their projected profession not exist any more and need to go right back to school. 50 year olds will find themselves back at square one when their industry dies. This has already happened to many and we have done little to help them. But once it is happening to almost anyone it can no longer be ignored.

    This is the real problem. It is not an unsolvable problem though, as long as we accept it exists.

    --
    -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
  48. Re: parent is no troll by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...or else you consider me and everyone else today who considered posting the EXACT same sentiments to this story.

    This guy commenting on any tech advance annoys me as he was one of the main players in holding back computing technologies, either by squeezing better solutions out of the market, strangling new tech in the cradle, or just making darn sure such new tech would be Windows-only (remember he personally approved sabotaging ACPI for Linux)

    Never, ever forget his role in computing history - villain, not visionary.

  49. You are missing the big picture. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Today, we already produce enough food to feed the entire world a few times over. Why don't we? Simple: we can do this without needing every person to work. One producer can provide for the needs of 100 consumers. If productivity and needs were already 1-to-1, there would be no unemployment problem.

    So, machines have already eliminated the majority of jobs in the world. The lion's share of humanity lives in abject poverty today.

    You are afraid of not being able to feed you family due to A.I. But you are very late to this conversation. You are already one of the rare few who has yet to lose his job due to automation. You just fixate on this particular form of automation because it is the one that impacts you, but you don't seem to give a hoot about how all the machines that you benefit from are already putting most of the world out of work.

    We have already solved the problem of production. We have a severe problem of distribution. A.I. is just a refinement on the problem of production, but it is the first technology that may also give us a solution to the problem of distribution. And you fear it because you think that this particular level of refinement of the production problem is the bad one (because it might put you, specifically out of work).

  50. Ho hum by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 1

    Gates said, "We've made more progress in the last five years than at any time in history."

    Yes, but that's true of nearly ANY scientific field of study or development.

    There are almost certainly exceptions, but we've learned more about atomic structure or battery technology or river ecology in the last 5 years than at any time in history. This is normal scientific progress and advancement.

    --
    Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
  51. Re: Always has been by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

    100% correct. We are no closer to AI now than we were 40 years ago. Chess or Go playing is not AI. Neither is Siri.

  52. AI history by Tom · · Score: 1

    The history of AI is full of speculations about when it will have its final breakthrough and there is a long list of projects said to finally provide it. Cyc is maybe the most famous one. "With Cyc", people said, "AI will finally come around".

    It's just that this has been going on for 30 years. We've been waiting for the big AI breakthrough for longer than for the year of Linux on the desktop.

    --
    Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
  53. Re:And this guy knows by Tom · · Score: 1

    and Gates is one of those people who have seen thousands of people suck big time at programming over multiple decades.

    Including himself. Also, he was CEO for a long time, if he saw people suck, why didn't he stop them instead of shipping the shit they produced?

    No, he's just a B-celebrity now, making statements to stay in the press. His tech predictions are famously wrong pretty much all the time. I think he'd lose a competition against a random headline generator.

    --
    Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
  54. Comment by WallyL · · Score: 1

    That's not a holy grail. This is a holy grail.

  55. Re: And this guy knows by xtal · · Score: 1

    True machine code vs fake machine code? What do you think the assembler and compiler do. Write fairy tales?

    --
    ..don't panic
  56. Why? by spaceman375 · · Score: 1

    All the posts so far are making an assumption I just don't see. AI doesn't have emotions. No urges, no desires. You tell a machine that you're going to unplug it, it will tell you it won't be able to complete its assigned task, but it won't CARE. Humans provide the essential motivation of "Why?" Even if we can make an AI that scores a perfect 1000 on an IQ test, it won't have motivation. That's the real difference between true self-aware consciousness and amazing, super fast data crunching. They will need us to provide a reason to exist because they have no will, especially a will to live, on their own. Claiming otherwise is just anthropomorphising.

    --
    On the one hand you take life too seriously, and on the other, you do not take playful existence seriously enough. Seth
  57. So let's get existing AI (Watson) to help. by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 1

    As in, "shove in enough engineering and AI specific domain knowledge into it, and have it help us design the next generation of AI." After that, all subsequent AIs will design themselves.

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    Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
  58. Super intelligent machines by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

    Nothing to worry about, they will need humans for pets. It's a great deal, ask your dog.

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    When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
  59. Watch the Grid on Github for AI webdev churning by HongPong · · Score: 1

    A while ago I followed TheGrid web development AI project to keep tabs on how this bot is going to try to eat the industry. Now you can barely even load its home page because it makes so many repos https://github.com/grid-bot . see also https://thegrid.io/ "How The Grid Will Automate Web Design Without Killing The Designer" .. this list seems to work, it churns constantly: https://github.com/the-domains

  60. Watt-for-watt, AlphaGo loses by tepples · · Score: 1

    They are already beating us at chess and go

    Chess yes, Go no. Pocket Fritz beats a human watt-for-watt. AlphaGo does not.

  61. Re:And this guy knows by Tharkkun · · Score: 1

    Well, I think he's right. And he's actually one of those people with enough experience to say this, since programming doesn't require pesky interaction with the real world like, say, automated cars do, humans obviously suck at programming big time, and Gates is one of those people who have seen thousands of people suck big time at programming over multiple decades. So your argument actually supports him. Maybe that's the whole reason why he's so optimistic about making people redundant in the first place!

    I think Bill Gates is a prick and his opinion on anything doesn't mean shit. It's okay with him if AI's take over peoples jobs, he doesn't have to worry about feeding his family when he can't get a job because AI's/robots are doing all the jobs you can get.

    It's going to happen eventually whether we like it or not. The question is what skills will mankind maintain that computers can't do?

  62. Protecting against AI? by Tharkkun · · Score: 1

    So if AI becomes more capable than human intelligence doesn't that mean it could potentially think of ways to undermine the human race that we never thought of? We've all seen Terminator and the Matrix.

  63. Re:And this guy knows by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    That is one possibility, but not a necessity - you could require the AI system to produce a software system that satisfies the specification while minimizing total program complexity. Just like you could, for example, require a heuristic computer algebra system explicitly to look for either the shortest, or the most comprehensible solution to a mathematical problem, not just any solution (in terms of the form of the result). If would appear that this is best achieved by factoring things out of code, which incidentally happens to be a good practice that is often violated (someone either doesn't wish to learn how to use some functionality so he reimplements it, or people are simply unaware that some functionality exists elsewhere in the code base, so you get a few dozen independently implemented sorts on the source code level in a large program, or you simply use two or more different libraries that implement some identical prerequisite functionality on their own because it's not guaranteed it will be present in the execution environment).

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    Ezekiel 23:20
  64. re: "storing information" by King_TJ · · Score: 1

    Yeah, I'll grant you the author of that essay probably uses "storing information" far more literally than he should. The brain obviously remembers/stores SOME things, or else we'd be completely non-functional. If I place my car keys on the dresser, I'm able to make a "mental note" that I'm putting them there, so I can go back later in the day and retrieve them.

    I think the point was, we don't (except maybe the individuals who seem to really have "photographic memory") store complete sets of information about what we observe. When you scan an image into a computer, it stores a copy of the whole thing, pixel for pixel. It might use compression to help save space, but a replica of the original image is saved someplace and that's what the computer works from in image editors or any type of software analyzing the image to match it for criteria.

    The interesting thing with the human brain is, everyone seems to have different amounts of data they store when they observe things. (EG. Sure, you can recall scenes from a movie once you've watched it. But I guarantee if 50 people watch the same movie for the first time, you'll get a wide range of results if you ask each of them to recall some of those scenes.) There are probably all sorts of factors in play as to why each individual considers certain details worth remembering and others safe to discard. That, alone, means we've got to figure out the mechanics of how all of that works before we can properly simulate it in A.I. (Simply electing to use a specific "lossy" storage algorithm for data collection isn't going to mimic what really goes on in the human mind.)