Electric Bikes Won Over China. Is the US Next? (bloomberg.com)

Sales of electric-bike is growing in many parts of the world. Asia-Pacific region, for instance, is estimated to see 32.8M of them sell this year, and 1.6m of e-bikes are expected to be sold in Western Europe by the end of this year. In China, in particular, the ban on motorcyle has lead to massive e-bike adoption. Over the years we've seen many companies such as BG and Pedego dish out models after models, offering bikes ranging from elegant folding versions to flat-tire variants. Despite all the growth elsewhere in the world, North America and Latin America are estimated to see less than 250,000 inventories move this year. But going forward, the number is likely to see a major growth. From a Bloomberg article: Electrics "finally have legs to be able to take off in the U.S.," because cyclists are feeling safer on the roads, battery and motor technology is improving, and retail prices are dropping, says Todd Grant, president of the National Bicycle Dealers Association. However, e-bikes have been banned in some U.S. cities because of safety concerns. [...] The U.S. market could develop "way faster" than Europe's did, says Claus Fleischer, who heads Bosch's e-bike division. The German multinational began selling motors and batteries for electric bikes in 2011 and now supplies more than 60 brands, primarily in Europe. It opened a subsidiary in Irvine, Calif., in 2014 and is sponsoring e-bike expos across the U.S., including one in Portland, Ore., that ran for three days in late May.

Comments

"the ban on motorcyle (s?) "

[turkeydance]

helped. a lot.

Re:"the ban on motorcyle (s?) "

[hawguy]

Not only that. The laws limit the speed to 20 mph max for electric. Worthless on flat roads when you can easily reach 25 mph. It prevents them from being used on the roads properly.

Why is a 20mph bike worthless on a road with a 25mph speed limit? I ride my (non-electric) bike on 25 mph roads on my way to work... I rarely go over 20mph yet my bike is still quite useful (and faster than driving since i can take some bike-only shortcuts).

Re:"the ban on motorcyle (s?) "

[ShanghaiBill]

If it's two stroke engine bikes then there are still gas options.

Motorcycles are NOT banned in China. They are only banned in the core areas of major cities, like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, and even there they are allowed if you are a resident and you have the emissions checked. Motorcycles are common in smaller cities and rural areas.

A major reason e-bikes are popular in China is that you can ride them in the bicycle lanes, which is way safer than riding in traffic. They are not popular everywhere. They work well in flat cities like Shanghai or Beijing, but you rarely see them in hilly cities like Chongqing.

Re:"the ban on motorcyle (s?) "

[hawguy]

Tell that to the stack of traffic behind you, ass-hat.

The only traffic behind me in the bike lane is other bikes. If a car chooses to drive in the bike lane, he should drive at bike speed.

Re:"the ban on motorcyle (s?) "

[Aighearach]

Not only that. The laws limit the speed to 20 mph max for electric. Worthless on flat roads when you can easily reach 25 mph. It prevents them from being used on the roads properly.

No surprise, but cow-herd misrepresents the laws. In my State the cutoff is 15mph, not 20, but that isn't a speed limit of any sort.

That is merely the speed where it becomes a moped or scooter instead of a "bicycle." So if your device can go over that speed, then it is type of light motorcycle rather than a bicycle, and can't be used on bicycle-only paths. The funny part is that your complaint is that the rule interferes with being able to use electric bikes on roads; no, that is exactly the solution those rules explain to you: if you want it fast enough to be useful on most roads, then you'll have to drive it... on the road.

Also, it has nothing to do with electric; in most states it applies to any power-assisted bicycle, regardless of technology used. And before these laws were written, all power assisted bicycles were mopeds, a type of light motorcycle! These laws were added specifically to allow those devices which operate at a low (device-limited) speed to operate without licensing and on bike paths.

Re:"the ban on motorcyle (s?) "

[Swave An deBwoner]

Another self-entitled cyclist who believes that cars shouldn't be in the bike lane, eh? What next you selfish person? Are you going to disallow cars from driving on the sidewalk also?

/s

(The article below indicates that NYPD was not going to take action against a driver who did just that, mowed down a pedestrian, and drove away, however the driver has turned herself in.)

http://www.streetsblog.org/2016/06/03/driver-who-injured-woman-on-manhattan-sidewalk-pleads-to-two-felonies/

E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Shadow of Eternity]

John Forester's cult of Vehicular Cycling. Cycling in the US has been crippled for decades by a delusional group of ideologues who believe bicycles belong in the middle of regular motor vehicle lanes, even on 50mph state highways, and who will actively seek to prevent dedicated bicycle facilities from being built if it means people will ride in ways they disapprove of.

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Anonymous Coward]

I've always wondered why we'd rather have cyclist hit by cement trucks than pedestrians hit by cyclists..

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Anonymous Coward]

Because cyclists are usually smug poseurs?

Re: E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Anonymous Coward]

It's because they want the perks of being a vehicle and a pedestiran. Jerks.

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[fiannaFailMan]

John Forester's cult of Vehicular Cycling. Cycling in the US has been crippled for decades by a delusional group of ideologues who believe bicycles belong in the middle of regular motor vehicle lanes, even on 50mph state highways, and who will actively seek to prevent dedicated bicycle facilities from being built if it means people will ride in ways they disapprove of.

I doubt if they've been influential enough to cripple cycling. They seem to be confined to online ranting in their own little echo chamber. Thankfully.

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Anonymous Coward]

(though I have seen some poor "dedicated" lanes rejected because they were more dangerous than shared lanes since the cyclists were exposed to cars at every intersection)

So... the shared lanes don't expose cyclists to cars at every intersection (and all points in between as well)? How does that work?

Where I live we spend a million bucks a mile for bike lanes which are ignored by at least half the cyclists on the road who insist on "sharing" lanes with vehicles lawfully travelling at three times their speed or more. I've seen them riding three or four wide taking up both available motor vehicle lanes in one direction and not a single bike in the adjacent bike lane. Intersections? Red Lights? 4-way stops? Means nothing to our cyclists, they routinely blow right through them. Then there's the Lance Armstrong wannabees all decked out in gaudy spandex who think it's a great idea to "share" a nearby 9-mile narrow stretch of 2-lane shoulder-less ditch-abutting-the-white-stripe no-passing-zone road consisting of nothing but roller-coaster hills. While they may enjoy the challenge, it's insanely dangerous for the cyclists and motorists as well. While it's technically illegal to pass a bicycle anywhere along this stretch of double-yellow-line road, nobody wants to follow one all the way to the end because they're going at most 5 mph up the hills. But then they speed up to the 35 mph speed limit or more going down the hills, making it difficult to pass where there's maybe just enough visibility to the crest of the next hill to pass without killing anyone. I can't tell you how many times I've seen people pass cyclists going UP one of these hills as a result, and I've witnessed many near-misses as another vehicle crests the hill in the oncoming lane as the passing vehicle swerves sharply over to avoid a head-on. NOT ONCE have I seen a cyclist pull off at one of the many driveways along this road to let motor vehicle traffic pass safely.

Speaking to "an active cycling advocate for over 20 years", here's hoping you've been advocating that your fellow cyclists share RESPONSIBILITY at least as much as you've been advocating the rest of us to share the road. Because we DEFINITELY need more cycling enthusiasts to do so.

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Ichijo]

a...group...who believe bicycles belong in the middle of regular motor vehicle lanes

Actually, what vehicular cyclists really believe is that bicyclists should act "as drivers of vehicles." Did you know that slow-moving vehicles are already required to be driven as close as practicable to the right-hand edge or curb? A bicycle is (usually) a slow-moving vehicle, so why should it be treated differently under the law than other slow-moving vehicles?

Sometimes it's safer to ride in the middle of the lane, such as when the bike lane is full of debris, or there's no bike lane, and the regular traffic lane is too narrow to share side by side with a vehicle. Riding in the center of the lane makes the bicyclist more visible and forces motorists to change lanes to pass instead of passing unsafely close to the bicyclist.

Yes, passing and the use of the turn signal have become a lost art among motorists. This is why self-driving cars can't arrive soon enough.

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Shadow of Eternity]

Actually, what vehicular cyclists really believe in their own words is that cyclists should "take the lane". Start to finish that's their nigh-religious mantra, "take the lane" and all will be solved.

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[Shadow of Eternity]

Found the vehicular cyclist.

Re:E-bikes will stall for one simple reason:

[drinkypoo]

Riding in the center of the lane makes the bicyclist more visible and forces motorists to change lanes to pass instead of passing unsafely close to the bicyclist.

In California, when you do that, you are now breaking the law. The law requires all drivers to pull over to permit passing for just one vehicle now, and you are required to pull over when it is safe. The standard used to be five vehicles stacked up behind you. A cyclist can pull over safely basically anywhere, so the short story is that you should pull over immediately rather than holding up faster traffic. That's the same standard for everyone, not just bicycles. The standard is not "when you come to a turnout" but when it is safe. So.... one side, peck! When you manage to not disturb the flow of traffic, then you can use the whole road.

Given the excess energy stored in love handles

[ffkom]

... the much better trend for the US would be an increased use of non-electric, traditional bicycles.

They shouldn't

[mrun4982]

"because cyclists are feeling safer on the roads"... they shouldn't or else they're just fooling themselves. In the US in general, people driving cars/trucks don't like cyclists.

Re:They shouldn't

[bitingduck]

Even big motorcycles are hard to see, nevermind a skinny little bike.

You aren't looking around enough. If you're used to looking for bicycles, they're easy to see. If you're used to looking for motorcycles, they're easy to see. Lane sharing by motorcyclists is legal in California, so if you're driving you have to expect that motorcycles are going to come up the apparently non-existent lane between you and the next car. They're easy to see if you actually look.

Another market they are making inroads

[willworkforbeer]

Professional cycling races.

A few changes and the Chinese eBikes would be OK

[ukoda]

Having used eBikes for a daily commute in China I think they are a great technology, practical and affordable. The average price for an eBike was about USD $400 when I lived there a couple of years ago. Current eBikes outside of China appear to be grossly over priced. There are a few changes need if they wish to sell outside of China. The build quality needs to improve, quite doable. The speed restrictions need removed, typically 35kph which is too slow in cities outside China, 55kph (35mph) should make them able to mix with cars safely in cites. They currently have 500W motors which would probably need boosted to 750W-1KW for flat cites and 2-3KW for hilly cities.

Re:Will never happen in the U.S

[phantomfive]

They think that roads are built for cars and not transport in general,

To be fair, that is why a huge number of them were built.

not so fast

[tverbeek]

I'm skeptical that electric-powered bikes will become very popular in the US. They're fairly similar in riding qualities (lightweight, easy to handle) and licensing requirements (pretty much none) to a 50cc motorscooter, and those have failed to take off, despite being widely available in the same price range for years. I've been a day-to-day scooterist for seven years, but I don't have a lot of company out there. Especially in the north, where they're a three-season vehicle (or one-season, for the less dedicated), they aren't seen as a viable substitute for a car. Even with 100mpg engines that cost almost nothing to fuel, the ability to park them almost anywhere, and a lot of other appealing features, most consumers just don't seem interested (which is too bad for them, because unless the roads are wet or icy, I'd much rather ride than sit in a car).

An e-bike also suffers from being neither fish nor fowl. A 20mph bike is too slow to keep up with traffic in a motor-vehicle lane, but too fast to fit in with any human-powered traffic in a bicycle lane. I've ridden a 50cc scooter (mine was capable of 40mph) in 45mph zones, and believe me: motorists don't like you when you go under the speed limit in a motorized-vehicle lane. They'll eat a 20mph e-bike alive, even in a 25mph zone. But if that e-bike takes the bike lane (which isn't legal in many places), it will quickly overtake regular bicyclists, whom it won't be able to safely pass because bike lanes aren't designed for that. Dedicated lanes for motor-powered two-wheelers might help as an option for e-bikes and scooters (and motorcyclists who aren't in a hurry), but I don't see that happening until they become popular... ye olde Catch 22.

Re:not so fast

[JoeMerchant]

Just because an e-bike _can_ do 20mph is no reason that it _has_ to do 20mph. I'd value the 300W assist cruising at a normal 12-15mph, if it meant I could arrive without being drenched in sweat.

Actually been to China and seen it

[RightwingNutjob]

I went to Shanghai and Hangzhou about 18 months ago, and saw this stuff for myself. The newly-built portions of these Chinese cities (ie the ones that used to be open fields 20 years ago or razed slums) have their nice and shiny new roads layed out as follows:
1. Storefronts
2. A portion of the sidewalk taken up by space for bikes and electric scooters, with power strips provided by shopkeepers for their customers
3. Rest of the (wide) sidewalk
4. Dedicated bike+electric scooter lane, maybe 6-8 feet wide
5. Small median (~1-2 feet, bigger for bus stops)
6. Traffic lanes, 4 or more lanes total, sometimes in groups of two or three, sometimes with a set of reversible lanes, sometimes dedicated bus lanes.
5 downto 1 in reverse order on the other side.

At almost all intersections, the bike lanes have separate traffic signals (usually overlapping with pedestrian walk signals), and sometime the bike lanes have separate left turn signals which coincide with exclusive left turn signals for the car lanes. If I remember right, the car left and right turn lanes can be either on the interior or exterior of the road and there are signs to indicate which set of lanes allow you to turn which way at the upcoming intersection. This is to deconflict turning vehicles from bikes/pedestrians going straight at the outside of the road.

Overall, it was a pretty good system. But (especially in Shanghai) you could tell that half the people on the road didn't have an f'ing clue of how to operate a vehicle in traffic, and one time when I was riding a bus, a woman cut of the bus changing from one set of lanes to another (in a way that just wouldn't happen here) and got her rear tail light knocked out.

The other thing is that this all takes space. You couldn't do it unless you were building from scratch or were willing to knock down large numbers of existing buildings. But the Chinese had to do it this way because maybe only half of their people can afford to own cars, and even fewer back when this was built 20 years ago. So the streets were layed out to accomodate an equal number of people on bicycles and buses/motor vehicles. That's a ready market for electric scooters.

Re:Actually been to China and seen it

[thegarbz]

You couldn't do it unless you were building from scratch or were willing to knock down large numbers of existing buildings.

Or you take the Dutch approach. Reclaim a lane from the road traffic. Put in place restrictions on driving within the city centre. Prioritise traffic lights for the bicycle flow instead of main traffic flow, and make this ubiquitous across a city.

When a large portion of the population is doing normal trips on a bicycle you don't need all that space for cars.

Re: It's not safe...

[Anonymous Coward]

Not a fallacy at all. Your chances of dying from lazy lifestyle, or car-caused polution, is much higher than dying in a bicycle accident. His advice is very accurate. Look at NYC and the bike renewal there.

Re:Will never happen in the U.S

[Ol Olsoc]

Some reasons: Americans have a pathological hate for cyclists. They think that roads are built for cars and not transport in general, and all American drivers think they own the road they drive on.

Living in a college town there are reasons other than the ones you quote, like 'Murricans wannd burn gas and the other tripe you spewed.

Around my little city, most of the Car/bike accidents result in a citation against the bike rider, as many consider stop signs and traffic lights not for them. And in the downtown area, the typical accident is a bike blowing through a traffic light and hitting a car on the side. Riding 5 abreast to the middle of the road - even with a bike lane - is also popular.

Some riders have such a bitched up attitude, they become counter productive. I was assisting with a bike road race, following behind the last riders, and one of them got pissed at me because I wouldn't pass him. Went all apeshit on me. Dropped back a couple times to I suppose kick the door. Spent a while swearing at me. I let him, then announced who I was. A simple radio call to the next way station, and he was disqualified for abuse of an official.

no showers

[dltaylor]

I have experimented with cycling to work (usually use a motorcycle). At no place I have ever worked have there been showers usable for the transition from cyclist to acceptable office occupant, and I really must have those facilities.

Re:no showers

[radarskiy]

Normal human beings do not maintain a racer's pace if they are not actually racing.

A 3 mph walk will burn ~60 watts, which will get you 9 mph on a bicycle without being any more sweaty than walking for the same amount of time. Do you need a shower after walking from your car into the building where you work?

Re:no showers

[tommeke100]

That really depends on the weather. No, You don't have to bike to work at 20 mph. But given a bit of heat, a nice 1 mile hill which needs some effort getting over, and some people would enjoy taking a shower before getting behind their desk.

Re:Not where I live

[hawguy]

Indeed.

The day I can go up to 30 miles one way daily on a bike in a timely manner, is the day I start getting in shape.

Otherwise, I'll have to keep using my car.

I think you got that backwards -- "The day you can go up to 30 miles one way daily on a bike in a timely manner is when you'll be in shape". Driving your car is not likely to get you into shape. But I think you mean 30 miles *each* way, or you have a very unusual commute.

Re:Will never happen in the U.S

[Hasaf]

I question this assumption. I work in a extremely typical small town in Kansas and I use my e-bike for all local transportation. If I need to go further I fly.

I get, almost universally, positive comments. Sure, there are a few jerks; but that is just the way they are, the e-bike really has nothing to do with it. The reality is that most people don't even notice that it is an e-bike. As a means of transportation it works quite well.

Re:A few changes and the Chinese eBikes would be O

[mysticgoat]

E-bikes that can exceed 20 mph need to be limited to cyclists who can pass a motorcycle license exam. At 35 mph an e-bike with its smaller tire-to-road surface area and poorer braking behavior is more dangerous than a motorcycle and requires more skill in the instantaneous risk assessment that is critical to safe driving of any vehicle. E-bikes in traffic lanes at faster than pedaling speeds are not only a threat to their riders, they are a hazard to all other drivers on the road.

near where?

[dltaylor]

You posted as AC, so that only narrows the search to Earth and near-Earth orbit. Probably not too many in orbit, since they're incredibly heavy, and Antarctica doesn't have much infrastructure, but that still leaves at least 20% of the planet.

Re:I commute on an e-bike

[mysticgoat]

Parent post makes a good case for low powered e-bikes.

Another case: when I was recovering from back surgery for a fractured spine, I got a used e-bike with a 500W motor, lead-acid batteries, sprung front fork, beach tires. My total moving weight was around 325 lbs, 340 lbs with baskets of groceries. Top speed was around 18 mph with lots of pedaling, best cruising speed using the motor in pedal-assist mode was 10 - 12 mph. This was excellent therapy as my bones knit together and I got back in shape after the months of very limited activity. One of the best parts is that the e-bike gave me the confidence to do 12 mile rides almost daily, knowing that the motor could get me back home if I over-estimated my capability or started getting back spasms.

But I got rid of it as soon as I was healed enough to ride my road bike (no motor, cruising around 12 - 15 mph, good for 50 mile day trips by the end of the season). Now that I'm closer to 70 than 60 years old, I ride my "comfort bike" with its upright position and fat tires more than the road bike, and settle for 30 - 40 mile day trips. I will not willingly ride an e-bike ever again. They ain't much fun.

Re:Overpriced

[Malc]

Yeah bicycles are such great value. I've been riding a 1987 Trek that I bought in 1997 second hand for $125 from a guy who used to ride it up in to the mountains from Denver. It picked up some rust from all the winter road salt from almost 10 years in Toronto, and it's been carrying me 15-20km eachway in out of central London everyday for the last six years. Same wheels for 20 years, although straightened a few times, same bottom bracket, etc. Had to change the everything the chain touches once because I wore them out... I've clearly been ignoring the maintenance schedule proposed by most serious bike people! My health and bank balance are very happy with this arrangement.