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Electric Bikes Won Over China. Is the US Next? (bloomberg.com)
Sales of electric-bike is growing in many parts of the world. Asia-Pacific region, for instance, is estimated to see 32.8M of them sell this year, and 1.6m of e-bikes are expected to be sold in Western Europe by the end of this year. In China, in particular, the ban on motorcyle has lead to massive e-bike adoption. Over the years we've seen many companies such as BG and Pedego dish out models after models, offering bikes ranging from elegant folding versions to flat-tire variants. Despite all the growth elsewhere in the world, North America and Latin America are estimated to see less than 250,000 inventories move this year. But going forward, the number is likely to see a major growth. From a Bloomberg article: Electrics "finally have legs to be able to take off in the U.S.," because cyclists are feeling safer on the roads, battery and motor technology is improving, and retail prices are dropping, says Todd Grant, president of the National Bicycle Dealers Association. However, e-bikes have been banned in some U.S. cities because of safety concerns. [...] The U.S. market could develop "way faster" than Europe's did, says Claus Fleischer, who heads Bosch's e-bike division. The German multinational began selling motors and batteries for electric bikes in 2011 and now supplies more than 60 brands, primarily in Europe. It opened a subsidiary in Irvine, Calif., in 2014 and is sponsoring e-bike expos across the U.S., including one in Portland, Ore., that ran for three days in late May.
helped. a lot.
John Forester's cult of Vehicular Cycling. Cycling in the US has been crippled for decades by a delusional group of ideologues who believe bicycles belong in the middle of regular motor vehicle lanes, even on 50mph state highways, and who will actively seek to prevent dedicated bicycle facilities from being built if it means people will ride in ways they disapprove of.
A bullet may have your name on it but splash damage is addressed "To whom it may concern."
... the much better trend for the US would be an increased use of non-electric, traditional bicycles.
Professional cycling races.
Pretending this is my office full of bitter coworkers..
Having used eBikes for a daily commute in China I think they are a great technology, practical and affordable. The average price for an eBike was about USD $400 when I lived there a couple of years ago. Current eBikes outside of China appear to be grossly over priced. There are a few changes need if they wish to sell outside of China. The build quality needs to improve, quite doable. The speed restrictions need removed, typically 35kph which is too slow in cities outside China, 55kph (35mph) should make them able to mix with cars safely in cites. They currently have 500W motors which would probably need boosted to 750W-1KW for flat cites and 2-3KW for hilly cities.
I went to Shanghai and Hangzhou about 18 months ago, and saw this stuff for myself. The newly-built portions of these Chinese cities (ie the ones that used to be open fields 20 years ago or razed slums) have their nice and shiny new roads layed out as follows:
1. Storefronts
2. A portion of the sidewalk taken up by space for bikes and electric scooters, with power strips provided by shopkeepers for their customers
3. Rest of the (wide) sidewalk
4. Dedicated bike+electric scooter lane, maybe 6-8 feet wide
5. Small median (~1-2 feet, bigger for bus stops)
6. Traffic lanes, 4 or more lanes total, sometimes in groups of two or three, sometimes with a set of reversible lanes, sometimes dedicated bus lanes.
5 downto 1 in reverse order on the other side.
At almost all intersections, the bike lanes have separate traffic signals (usually overlapping with pedestrian walk signals), and sometime the bike lanes have separate left turn signals which coincide with exclusive left turn signals for the car lanes. If I remember right, the car left and right turn lanes can be either on the interior or exterior of the road and there are signs to indicate which set of lanes allow you to turn which way at the upcoming intersection. This is to deconflict turning vehicles from bikes/pedestrians going straight at the outside of the road.
Overall, it was a pretty good system. But (especially in Shanghai) you could tell that half the people on the road didn't have an f'ing clue of how to operate a vehicle in traffic, and one time when I was riding a bus, a woman cut of the bus changing from one set of lanes to another (in a way that just wouldn't happen here) and got her rear tail light knocked out.
The other thing is that this all takes space. You couldn't do it unless you were building from scratch or were willing to knock down large numbers of existing buildings. But the Chinese had to do it this way because maybe only half of their people can afford to own cars, and even fewer back when this was built 20 years ago. So the streets were layed out to accomodate an equal number of people on bicycles and buses/motor vehicles. That's a ready market for electric scooters.
E-bikes that can exceed 20 mph need to be limited to cyclists who can pass a motorcycle license exam. At 35 mph an e-bike with its smaller tire-to-road surface area and poorer braking behavior is more dangerous than a motorcycle and requires more skill in the instantaneous risk assessment that is critical to safe driving of any vehicle. E-bikes in traffic lanes at faster than pedaling speeds are not only a threat to their riders, they are a hazard to all other drivers on the road.
Normal human beings do not maintain a racer's pace if they are not actually racing.
A 3 mph walk will burn ~60 watts, which will get you 9 mph on a bicycle without being any more sweaty than walking for the same amount of time. Do you need a shower after walking from your car into the building where you work?