Apple To Make $3 Billion From Pokemon Go (theguardian.com)

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Apple To Make $3 Billion From Pokemon Go (theguardian.com)

Posted by BeauHD on Thursday July 21, 2016 @10:10AM from the keep-it-coming dept.

An anonymous reader writes from a report via The Guardian: We all know what Pokemon Go is, and we all know how successful it is. The Guardian is reporting that Apple will "rake in $3 billion in revenue from Pokemon Go in the next one to two years as gamers buy 'PokeCoins' from its app store, according to analysts." One pack of 100 PokeCoins costs about $1 in Apple's app store, but gamers can purchase as many as 14,500 PokeCoins for about $100. "We believe Apple keeps 30% of Pokemon Go's revenue spent on iOS devices, suggesting upside to earnings," Needham and Co brokerage analyst Laura Martin wrote in a client note on Wednesday. The game, which is also available on Android, had over 21 million active users after only being on the market for less than two weeks. It has also been rolled out in 35 countries since its U.S. debut. "Martin said Pokemon Go's ratio of paid users to total users was 10 times that of Candy Crush, the hit game from King Digital that generated more than $1 billion of revenue in both 2013 and 2014," reports The Guardian. Not only has Apple's stock risen since the launch of Pokemon Go, but Nintendo's stock has more than doubled.

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Thats a lot of money by Anonymous Coward · 2016-07-21 10:12 · Score: 3, Insightful

I wonder what they got paid for helping to catch the kickass torrents guy.
1. Re:Thats a lot of money by Jeremi · 2016-07-21 10:56 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  I wonder what they got paid for helping to catch the kickass torrents guy.
  500 stardust and 150 candies.
  
  --
  
  I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
2. Re:Thats a lot of money by Macrat · 2016-07-21 13:30 · Score: 2
  
  I wonder what they got paid for helping to catch the kickass torrents guy.
  A court order and legal fees.
Wait, you guys pay for this? by WillAffleckUW · 2016-07-21 10:13 · Score: 1

Silly me, I play for free and just listen to free podcasts for music too.
Wow.
Gotta catch all the rubes ....

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-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
1. Re:Wait, you guys pay for this? by Stinky+Cheese+Man · 2016-07-21 12:42 · Score: 3, Interesting
  
  Perhaps people who make different decisions than you are not necessarily less intelligent than you. They may just have different priorities. This is basically "pay what you want", and some people would like to return a little financial support to a company that is providing them with enjoyable entertainment.
$3B in 1-2 years for Apple... by imgod2u · 2016-07-21 10:22 · Score: 1

That's a barely noticeable blip on their earnings. It's still tremendous that a single app can do that but I do wonder how big the app revenue market really is.
1. Re:$3B in 1-2 years for Apple... by flargleblarg · 2016-07-21 12:48 · Score: 2
  
  $3B is a lot more than just a blip. $1M is just a blip. $3B is significant.
2. Re:$3B in 1-2 years for Apple... by Altus · 2016-07-22 01:33 · Score: 1
  
  Their QUARTERLY revenue numbers are around 50 billion. 3 Billion over 8 quarters... yeah, thats pretty much a blip.
  
  --
  "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson
3. Re:$3B in 1-2 years for Apple... by flargleblarg · 2016-07-22 06:59 · Score: 1
  
  Three billion dollars can do a lot of useful things. It's not a blip even if your revenue is a trillion dollars.
4. Re:$3B in 1-2 years for Apple... by Altus · 2016-07-25 05:02 · Score: 1
  
  1.5 billion this year against 200 billion in expected revenue. Thats .75% how small of a percentage does it have to be to be a blip. If this were a business unit apple would shut it down to focus on more profitable parts of the company. The watch made 6 billion in a year and is considered to be a failure.
  
  --
  "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson
I hucked $40 at it. Lures, mostly. I'm on Android. by Pezbian · 2016-07-21 10:23 · Score: 1, Insightful

I've paid more for games that gave me far less (cough, World of Warcraft). Apple makes my skin crawl. I feel the same way about Apple as I do about Disco and Herpes.

--
In a world of the blind, the one-eyed man is king--and the two-eyed man is a heretic.
Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by Overzeetop · 2016-07-21 10:40 · Score: 4, Interesting

That's what the story should be. If Apple is taking a 30% cut of it's 80% market share, then PG is projected to make $3B/0.24 = $12.5B
Of course, this may be a bit like looking at the June 20-July 4 numbers for firework vendors in the US and extrapolating that to how much they'll make over a whole year by multiplying that number by 26. This windfall only happens if the game sustains it's frenzy for 24 months. This isn't a normally mobile crowd, and the next big game (or new Xbox/PS) is always right around the corner. I'm not sure that's really a likely scenario.

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Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
1. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by DerekLyons · 2016-07-21 11:04 · Score: 2
  
  Of course, this may be a bit like looking at the June 20-July 4 numbers for firework vendors in the US and extrapolating that to how much they'll make over a whole year by multiplying that number by 26. This windfall only happens if the game sustains it's frenzy for 24 months. This isn't a normally mobile crowd, and the next big game (or new Xbox/PS) is always right around the corner. I'm not sure that's really a likely scenario.
  A twenty year old franchise, one with a steady history of money making games, movies, and various kinds of collectible... I wouldn't be in such a hurry to write it off. Not to mention, a good number of these players come from outside the "fad gamer" demographic. They didn't come from the Last Big Thing and they are unlikely to depart for the Next Big Thing. We're pretty much in entirely new territory here.
  
  While the currently numbers are, as you correctly point out, unsustainable... Pokemon Go isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
2. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by Overzeetop · 2016-07-21 11:28 · Score: 1
  
  Fireworks have been around in the US for a couple hundred years too - not once has the two week period leading up to a July 4th been extrapolated to annual sales directly.
  I have no doubt that the P/Go app will continue to generate revenue - probably good revenue. But to imagine that even 10% of the vast majority of bandwagon jumpers are going to continue the game - and pay for it on a regular basis - is sheer folly. I'll be surprised if they hit 1/2 the 13B in 2 years - which would be less than the jump in market cap of Nintendo due to the game. We should have a timer on /. to come back in 24 months and see which of us was correct.
  
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  Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
3. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by xvan · 2016-07-21 12:06 · Score: 1
  
  That's only for apple players (I don't know what's the ratio of paying [ Android | Apple ] freemium paying players )
4. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by DerekLyons · 2016-07-21 18:31 · Score: 1
  
  Fireworks have been around in the US for a couple hundred years too - not once has the two week period leading up to a July 4th been extrapolated to annual sales directly.
  Since you lack reading comprehension, I'll point out that I agreed with you in my original reply.
  
  But to imagine that even 10% of the vast majority of bandwagon jumpers are going to continue the game
  I'll repeat myself since you seem to have failed to grasp my point the first time - Pokemon Go players are, by and large, not bandwagon jumpers going from game to system to fad with each change in the wind. Pokemon Go is a new thing in the gaming world - who knows where it will go?
5. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by ausekilis · 2016-07-22 00:09 · Score: 1
  
  I liken it to MAFIAA (Music And Film Industry Association of America) projections. Every movie is projected to be a big hit, then there are those that only make 10% of their cost, if that.
  
  Who knows, though? Pokemon has been an enduring brand for 20 years. There's even a Pokemon store in my local mall. Maybe this "free" game will be a cash cow spreading the wealth to Apple and Google.
6. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by nine-times · 2016-07-22 00:58 · Score: 1
  
  These games always disturb me a bit-- the "free" games that let you buy some sort of credits. I haven't played the game, so I'm wondering what you can get with "PokéCoins".
  Because it seems to me that a game where you buy credits would fall into one of two groups. Either (a) the game developer intentionally included some game mechanic that is unpleasant, that most people would not want to spend time on, and is selling the credits as a method for bypassing that mechanic; or (b) the game developer intentionally made some portions of the game impossible without additional assistance, and then sells you credits as that necessary assistance.
  Now I'm not going to buy those credits, which means that in scenario A, the developer has made a boring/annoying game. In scenario B, the developer has made an incomplete game. What's the deal here?
7. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by Overzeetop · 2016-07-22 01:22 · Score: 1
  
  The Play store takes the same cut as Apple (30%), though the recent "long term developer" discounts would have that fall to as little at 15% on both platforms. I suspect that if the simpletons writing the fluff piece don't understand the peaking kind of demand for this game, they wouldn't have considered the out-year rate reductions which are planned.
  
  --
  Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
8. Re:Pokemon Go to rake in nearly $13 Billion by Robotech_Master · 2016-07-22 21:00 · Score: 1
  
  Actually, you can earn multiples of 10 pokecoins per day. Every 21 hours, you can get 10 coins for every gym you control at the end of the 21-hour countdown timer. I've never managed to have more than 2 or 3 at a time when that happened, but I expect when I get some more powerful critters I'll be able to do better.
  
  --
  Editor Emeritus and Senior Writer, TeleRead.org
River in Egypt by PopeRatzo · 2016-07-21 10:44 · Score: 3, Interesting

This is Apple trying to deflect attention from their apparent slowdown in growth. People are selling ahead of the quarterly earnings report next week, which is not predicted to be good.

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You are welcome on my lawn.
1. Re:River in Egypt by PopeRatzo · 2016-07-21 14:11 · Score: 1
  
  Apple is going to go broke any day now.
  Nobody says Apple's going to go broke. But nobody said IBM would go broke, either. They just faded into the B2B sunset.
  Apple investors are a skittish, faddish lot. Bad news about the iWatch is enough to make it a good short play heading into next week.
  
  --
  You are welcome on my lawn.
2. Re:River in Egypt by PopeRatzo · 2016-07-21 14:15 · Score: 1
  
  $3 billion in 1-2 years is nothing compared to what Apple makes in revenue which is around $50 billion per quarter.
  It's not about the numbers, it's about the news cycle. This was the story at the beginning of the quarter:
  http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-a...
  And it actually turned out a little worse than expected. Don't be surprised if you see some Apple selling in the market ahead of the quarterly statement next week.
  
  --
  You are welcome on my lawn.
3. Re:River in Egypt by PopeRatzo · 2016-07-22 03:42 · Score: 1
  
  Didn't their smart watches sales started shrinking?
  Yes. Of the top five makers of smart watches, Apple was the only one to see sales shrinking.
  
  --
  You are welcome on my lawn.
Can someone explain the appeal of this game? by Brannon · 2016-07-21 10:44 · Score: 1

Seriously.
1. Re:Can someone explain the appeal of this game? by turkeydance · 2016-07-21 10:50 · Score: 2
  
  scavenger hunt.
2. Re:Can someone explain the appeal of this game? by tlhIngan · 2016-07-21 17:59 · Score: 1
  
  Virtual geocaching.
  That's what it really is - a game of virtual geocaching.
  And geocaching has had steady performance for a long time now.
  Pokemon has also had it out for a long time now. And let's not forget while it seems boring now, that's just because they don't have the server farm to handle it yet. Japan and China have yet to be connected, mostly because there just aren't enough servers out there yet.
  Once Niantic has finally activated the game world wide, then you're going to see content improvements. And all sorts of other stuff - if it's a fad, Ingress shows it has staying power, and this is with a powerful brand. No doubt there will be special events with The Pokemon Company and Niantic for game launches and stuff as well.
  Apple makes some money - perhaps that's why they're cutting rates. But the biggest winners would be companies like Dell who supply the backend infrastructure (or are busy doing so - Japan is being flooded with servers so when it opens it will hopefully be a lot less rough).
3. Re:Can someone explain the appeal of this game? by Pezbian · 2016-07-21 20:10 · Score: 1
  
  Pussyaching on Slashdot in AC mode is better.
  
  --
  In a world of the blind, the one-eyed man is king--and the two-eyed man is a heretic.
4. Re:Can someone explain the appeal of this game? by Pezbian · 2016-07-21 20:21 · Score: 1
  
  Now that I think about it, geocaching is a really good way to put it.
  A local flower shop has a cool mouse statue in back that I never knew about until GO happened. On top of that, I learned some local history and finally realized that some of the headstones were hand-carved when I visited the Cemetery at night trying to back up the gym there.
  And, after the GO side of things, I looked around and noticed the South side was full of solar LED landscape lights, while the North side had very few. Exploring, I found the earliest departure date was in 1986 among those who had the lights in the North. It was more a matter of having living family members, but seeing those later dates nestled among much earlier dates made me realize the burial plots had been reserved far in advance.
  
  --
  In a world of the blind, the one-eyed man is king--and the two-eyed man is a heretic.
5. Re:Can someone explain the appeal of this game? by Pezbian · 2016-07-21 20:33 · Score: 1
  
  Seriously.
  Lures are like buying a round for your friends, but for like 50 cents and everyone can join in. Plus, I give away team decals with my business cards.
  What were you picturing when you read my post?
  
  --
  In a world of the blind, the one-eyed man is king--and the two-eyed man is a heretic.
only $3 billion? by TsuruchiBrian · 2016-07-21 11:05 · Score: 1

Guardian is reporting that Apple will "rake in $3 billion in revenue from Pokemon Go in the next one to two years as gamers buy 'PokeCoins' from its app store, according to analysts."
If we extrapolate this trend out to 50 years, apple will make at least $150 billion in revenue not counting inflation. There is no reason to think this is a fad that will be over in 2 weeks...
1. Re:only $3 billion? by Macrat · 2016-07-21 13:36 · Score: 1
  
  There is no reason to think this is a fad that will be over in 2 weeks...
  How much do you hear about Angry Birds these days?
2. Re:only $3 billion? by TsuruchiBrian · 2016-07-22 05:51 · Score: 1
  
  You mean that game that just had a film adaptation grossing $343 million released in May of this year? Or do you mean a different game? If we extrapolate out the revenues from angry birds out 50 years, we are looking at a $13.5 billion just in yearly angry bird movies.
In game purchases by fluffernutter · 2016-07-21 11:15 · Score: 1

I've never really understood the fun of a game where someone can dump in a bunch of money and get just as far as you have, even if you have put hours and hours into it. I don't play video games often, but when I do that is an element of real life I don't want in them.

--
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1. Re:In game purchases by theurge14 · 2016-07-21 15:39 · Score: 1
  
  Most games in the mobile market the last few years have been following this formula. Appeal to the human desire to gather and collect things, get them hooked of going through motions of it and then run microtransactions at them later when they are fully addicted.
Re:Pokemon Go by Adriax · 2016-07-21 11:19 · Score: 3, Insightful

Not all players do that. As always you hear a lot more about the idiots than the normal players.
I've see a lot more people walking around the park and downtown than before. And I personally have tried 4 new restaurants I never knew about before thanks to aimlessly wandering around town for pokestops.

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I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it!
ridiculous by SuperDre · 2016-07-21 20:10 · Score: 1

And that's just f-ing ridiculous, as a developer you don't have any choice but to go through iOS app store, so you'll always have to give money to apple.. 30% off all in-app purchases is really REALLY ridiculous, they are just a bunch of thiefs, as always riding on the back of others.. (just like almost all of their products just being ripped from others and put in a nice shiny cover and sold)..
1. Re:ridiculous by CastrTroy · 2016-07-21 22:05 · Score: 1
  
  Apple covers a lot of things with that 30% such as credit card processing fees. Payment providers usually charge a minimum amount on each transactions which makes $1.00 transactions very expensive. This isn't to say that Apple isn't making a ton of money off this, but that most developers see it as a pretty good deal. Otherwise you'd see tons of third party app stores popping up on Android where Google also takes their 30%.
  
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  Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
2. Re:ridiculous by mobby_6kl · 2016-07-22 00:03 · Score: 1
  
  That's very generous of Apple! And there are a ton of app stores on Android, but they're having trouble taking off because the Play store is always there by default (lol remember IE?)
3. Re:ridiculous by angel'o'sphere · 2016-07-22 02:41 · Score: 1
  
  For most "developers" it is cheaper than selling it themselves.
  They don't need a web site, customer data, credit card processing, a sales rep, customer service, an accountant etc. p.p.
  30% only sounds much if you never have run your own company and have no clue how much that costs.
  Also: subscription based in app purchases got reduced to 10% fee half a year ago.
  
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4. Re:ridiculous by tlhIngan · 2016-07-22 05:10 · Score: 1
  
  For most "developers" it is cheaper than selling it themselves.
  They don't need a web site, customer data, credit card processing, a sales rep, customer service, an accountant etc. p.p.
  30% only sounds much if you never have run your own company and have no clue how much that costs.
  Also: subscription based in app purchases got reduced to 10% fee half a year ago.
  Not to mention having to maintain a customer database so customers can get their product over and over again or download updates, and maintaining that database against hordes of people trying to extract information from it.
  And then also the whole business of users not having to make yet ANOTHER account for their product...
  And all the necessary security updates - I'm sure most developers would love to spend 30% of their day just maintaining their website over say, developing code.
Re:Pokemon Go by jimbolauski · 2016-07-21 22:52 · Score: 2

Michael Obama has been trying to get kids be more active for the last 8 years it took Nintendo a couple of days.

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P= W/t
t=Money
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You'll never catch them all, and that's by design by Neo-Rio-101 · 2016-07-21 23:08 · Score: 1

On the topic of leveling up (link after the jump):
“Once you hit [the] mid 20s, you will start to notice even the most common of Pokémon have an abnormally high chance to evade capture. In no scenario should a 10cp Pidgey/Ratatta/Weedle be able to avoid capture from a lvl 29 Pokémon trainer, much less avoid it 5-8 times in the same battle (no exaggeration).Considering the need to use such large numbers of Pokeballs to capture even the most trivial Pokémon, combined with the “astronomically high” XP required, Riggnaros states “From level 29-30 I went through over 1000 Pokeballs. Literally. I cannot stress how ridiculous this would be for someone playing w/o spending coins on Pokeballs (ie playing the game f2p – which is the majority).”
So I guess that the game is specifically designed to suck you in, get you hooked on it like a drug, and then start smacking you hard so you have to pay-to-play. ...like most smartphone "games" which let you "cheat" if you pay up really.
And you'll never catch them all. Why would they ever let you do that? To kill the goose laying the golden eggs?
http://www.androidauthority.co...

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Re:Pokemon Go by Plumpaquatsch · 2016-07-21 23:13 · Score: 2

I think we should ban pokemon Go players from getting in the US until we figure out what the fuck is going on
Just build a virtual wall.

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Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
Re:Pokemon Go by ileahorea · 2016-07-22 07:52 · Score: 1

the guy or the company who made this game had a briliant ideea, and as you said people are walking around a lot now. That's a good thing, they made people get our of their house! :D visit http://www.newnetgames.com/ to see my pokemon game.

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