London To Tech Startups: Please Don't Mind the Brexit Gap (cnet.com)

An anonymous reader writes: The UK faces a potential economic backlash from its decision to exit the European Union, but London Mayor Sadiq Khan doesn't think tech startups should be worried. Khan on Monday stopped in New York while on a goodwill tour that included visits to Montreal and Chicago. His mission: to win back the hearts of tech companies that may be turned off by Brexit. The breakup looks bleak for tech, with nearly nine out of 10 British tech leaders opposing Brexit before the June vote. And while the effects of Brexit haven't taken hold yet, Khan remains optimistic about London. The British metropolis remains Europe's hub for the technology sector, Khan said, citing a poll commissioned by London & Partners, the mayor's economic promotional company. "London's been open to people, to trade and to ideas for more than a thousand years, and that's not going to change," Khan said Monday at the Chelsea office of workspace company WeWork. The survey reached out to more than 200 US tech executives, who believe London is the best city in which to build a startup in Europe, beating out Berlin, Paris and Dublin. While Brexit means London soon won't have access to the EU's open market across the continent, US tech leaders still choose the city for its "favorable time zones and lack of language barriers," according to a statement from the mayor's office.

Comments

Nobody knows yet

[Ed Avis]

While Brexit means London soon won't have access to the EU's open market across the continent,

Nobody knows yet whether this will turn out to be true. The negotiators may be able to cook up some deal that keeps the UK within the single market but outside the European Union (broadly as happens for Norway). On the other hand, a complete break is also a possibility.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Oswald McWeany]

EU is going to want to punish UK severely as a warning to others to not leave. There will be no easy access to the single market.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[lordholm]

it is very easy, freedom of movement is fundamental for the tech companies which relies on recruiting labour from the whole continent. This is unlikely to be possible without having to go through a lot of red tape.

Last time we recruited from outside the EU, the red tape took close to 6 months to go through.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

More than that, it will still be possible to sell almost anything to European customers anyway. The worst plausible outcome for trade with the EU is probably that we fall back on general WTO agreements for a while, in which case we're mostly talking about tariffs here. Those are going to be relatively small by the standards of startup culture where you're looking for unicorn-level successes anyway, though they could conceivably be more of an issue for regular businesses in tech sectors if the EU decides to be obstructionist in any future trade deal.

There may be some regulatory hurdles, but in fields like IP and data protection our laws are obviously already aligned with the rest of the EU, so there's unlikely to suddenly be some big compliance burden unless the government shoots itself in the foot by trying to soften protections to appeal more to the US tech sector. YMMV if you work in a field like biotech.

The bright side for UK tech businesses, particularly smaller ones and startups, is getting rid of a lot of silly EU regulations passed in recent years, the things that say you have to put cookie warnings on your site, or if someone buys a digital download from you then by default you mustn't actually supply it for 14 days in case they change their mind, or that you have to apply different VAT rates and rules for customers in every different member state you sell to (which can change at literally a few days' notice, which no-one will actively give you) and file special returns accordingly. These poorly implemented regulations cause significant overheads for small businesses who want to be spending their time building useful things instead, often for no real benefit to anyone or even actively annoying customers, and the sooner we're rid of them the better.

There will certainly be downsides, probably including significant economic harm in the short to medium term, from Brexit. If we're going to do it, let's at least try to take advantage of the upsides as well.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

The one potential upside of that is that our government might finally have to get its act together and fix the problems that employers and non-EU workers face with our current system. Our economy could be seriously damaged if a similar burden is imposed on EU workers once they're all in the same boat, and in any case, a clearer, more efficient, more accurate system than the current mess would be a benefit to everyone involved.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

That is certainly one possibility, though I've also seen an interesting counterpoint recently: given that some other EU member states have a growing movement also wanting to leave, and given that the governments of those states can no longer hide behind the UK when acting in ways that might support doing so, some of them may have to be more open about the possibility now and may want to set a precedent the other way to prove that leaving can work without screwing everyone involved. I don't know whether that would be good or bad for either the potential leavers or the EU in the long term, but it seems a plausible theory.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[tsqr]

it is very easy, freedom of movement is fundamental for the tech companies which relies on recruiting labour from the whole continent. This is unlikely to be possible without having to go through a lot of red tape.

Last time we recruited from outside the EU, the red tape took close to 6 months to go through.

The Schengen area and the EU are different things. Does Brexit mean the UK is backing out of the Schengen treaty?

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

The UK isn't within the Schengen Area anyway.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[myowntrueself]

it is very easy, freedom of movement is fundamental for the tech companies which relies on recruiting labour from the whole continent. This is unlikely to be possible without having to go through a lot of red tape.

Last time we recruited from outside the EU, the red tape took close to 6 months to go through.

The Schengen area and the EU are different things. Does Brexit mean the UK is backing out of the Schengen treaty?

UK is not in shengen

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Rei]

The UK makes up about 1/6th of the EU's trade. The EU makes up about 50% of the UK's trade. One side has leverage in these negotiations, and it's not the UK.

The EU has made one thing and one thing alone abundantly clear: there will not, under any circumstances, be access to the single market without corresponding free movement of people. And no, Norway doesn't have that (neither do we here in Iceland). It's one of the founding principles of the EU, and it will not be compromised on.

The UK can of course leave the EU and choose to allow free movement of people in exchange for access to the single market. Whether that's acceptable to UK voters is a whole different story. And playing by the regulations of the single market also kind of defeats the point of the whole brexit thing. Countries like Iceland and Norway still have to obey the vast majority of EU regulations - we just don't get a say in making them.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[whoever57]

EU is going to want to punish UK severely as a warning to others to not leave.

I am sure that there is a desire to do this, but the simple fact is that such punishment would harm the EU more than the UK: the UK imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Rei]

given that some other EU member states have a growing movement also wanting to leave

Support for leaving fell significantly in other European states in the wake of the BRexit vote. The post-BRexit chaos and hits to the market weren't exactly a shining beacon.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Zocalo]

The UK isn't in Schengen, so that's moot - there's a difference between not requiring ID to cross borders (Schengen) and needed to go through EU immigation controls at the border (non-Schengen) too. Now that the EU has us over a barrel however I'm sure some of them - like the Visegrad Group, or V4, (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) - might just try and insist that we adopt Schengen if we wish to have continued access to the EEA free trade area.

On the subject of the V4, their position does perhaps make how things are going to end up a little clearer to predict - provided that they are not just bluffing. Basically, they have promised to veto any Article 50 agreement that doesn't continue to allow free travel (with ID) for their citizens to the UK, as is currently the case. Any Article 50 agreement requires a unanamous vote in favour - all 27 remaining countries - so the only agreement V4 wil accept is a *very* soft exit, which simply won't be acceptable to Leave supporters. Likewise any extension of the two year period requires all 27 nations to agree which is equally unlikely so, two years after the UK invokes Article 50 whenever that is, it defaults to a hard exit with no trade agreements in place - the UK ceases to be member of the EU and becomes just another country with no established trade agreements in place.

That will no doubt make many in the Leave camp very happy... until the implications of having all the EU's trade treaties become null and void and WTO defaults kicking in strike home because they really, really, suck - why else would governments spend so much time negotiating treaties with each other? If we're lucky, we'll have that covered by getting an agreement to maintain the existing EU trade agreements as an interim measure as a stop gap, but if we end up in WTO defaults with one or more of our major trading partners, we're basically screwed - something even Pro-Leave groups concur with.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[saforrest]

Thanks for demonstrating the point.

The EU needs the UK. They are not going to cripple their own economy to make some mafia-esq mutilation to show that "nobody leaves, or else."

Both sides will negotiate a fair trade agreement. Life will go on.

Demonstrating the point? Did we read the same post (by Rei)? The UK does not have the leverage it thinks it has. This is a game of brinksmanship on both sides and there is no incentive for the EU to back down and be generous. Admittedly there is also no incentive for May or the Tories to back down at this stage. The difference is that it's their fault we all made it to this point.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[lordholm]

Maybe, but damage is already done. It is very difficult to now, in post-plebiscite UK to recruit young engineers from the rest of the EU. Most ones I have talked with are trying to go to Berlin instead of London these days. This really changed over-night, and it doesn't really matter what Kahn says, London already lost its appeal for most other EU citizens.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Hadlock]

I had to ask Gibraltar "immigration" for a passport stamp on the way in, and on the way out back to spain... well it was after 6pm so they'd gone home for the day, I just walked out through their vacant office back in to the schengen area. UK might not be schengen area, but you'd be hard pressed to find it fully enforced.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[ewibble]

Of course there will be access, it may not be complete and at the same level as it was but it will still be there. And it will allow the UK to form agreements with other countries. There are plenty of countries that are not part of the EU that do perfectly well.

As for leverage that is historical, 1/6 1/2 of trade the UK can go other places once it is free the EU bureaucracy the EU cannot, it is still bound by the same rules. There are plenty of countries that are eager to enter into trade agreements with the UK.

Life will go on, Europe does not fear the UK failing, it fears that it will succeed, that would mean that other countries may also leave the EU as well, once the unfounded fear is gone.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[myowntrueself]

I had to ask Gibraltar "immigration" for a passport stamp on the way in, and on the way out back to spain... well it was after 6pm so they'd gone home for the day, I just walked out through their vacant office back in to the schengen area. UK might not be schengen area, but you'd be hard pressed to find it fully enforced.

Maybe in Gibraltar.

I travelled from Eastern Europe to the UK by bus. We passed through about 6 countries but you wouldn't know it until it came to the ferry across from France it was like going to another country!

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

That was all true in the immediate aftermath, but like the market turbulence and most of the other panic reactions in the UK, it appears the sudden emphasis on keeping the remaining 27 together may have been short-lived. I think a lot of people and businesses have woken up to the reality that this is not going to be an overnight change now, and that a lot of what "experts" and politicians of all sides were saying during the referendum campaign and its immediate aftermath has already proved to be unrealistic. Only time will tell what kinds of deals get worked out before the actual Brexit and what the real long-term situation will be.

Meanwhile, the remaining 27 still have pressing issues with both immigration and the European economy to deal with, set against a backdrop of security fears (overstated or otherwise), rising far-right nationalist parties in several states, and weakening political leadership from some of the big players like Angela Merkel who have their own looming elections to face at home. Regardless of what happens with Brexit, the EU is still looking a lot less robust and attractive than it used to.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Certainly a lot of damage has been done, and continues to be done with the xenophobic/racist brigade throwing their weight around since the referendum. I am hopeful that much of that damage can be undone again if we can push the far-right back into their obscure corner and repair some relationships with our neighbours that seem to have been needlessly antagonistic in recent weeks.

Unfortunately, some of that antagonism is coming from the remaining EU, not just the UK. I suspect a lot of it comes from underlying sentiment that has been there for a long time, since well before the Brexit referendum. Probably a certain amount since then also comes from jealousy among those who would like their own countries to be less heavily involved with the EU. Some of these bridges will be harder to rebuild than others.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[petermgreen]

"freedom of movement" != "absense of border controls".

The UK has never been part of the Schengen area but thanks to EU freedom of movement rules an EU citizen can show their passport or ID card at UK border control and except in highly exceptional circumstances* they must be let through. They can stay as long as they like and they can take a job in the UK without any additional formalities beyond what a UK citizen would need.

Contrast this to say an american. If they want to visit the UK they must convince the border officer they are a genuine visitor who intends to leave on time (6 months is the normal limit for a standard visitor) and doesn't intend to work illegally. If they want to work in the UK their prospective employer must go through the long process of getting them a visa. If they want to retire in the UK they must demonstrate an income of at least £25K per year without working and a "close connection" with the UK.

* Very serious crimes mainly.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Coward]

The question is anyway, if Gibraltar will stay british after a Brexit. Gibraltar has more ties to spain economically than to Britain and they opposed the Brexit 100%.
Btw. if Britain drops 1 mio of working eastern european immigrants out of Britain they might bet 1mio british retired people back living in continental europe due to better healthcare and other benefits.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

The UK makes up about 1/6th of the EU's trade. The EU makes up about 50% of the UK's trade. One side has leverage in these negotiations, and it's not the UK.

I'm not sure how strong the UK's bargaining position really is, but your conclusion seems to be overstating the one-sidedness of the situation.

Even losing 1/6 of its international trade would be devastating to a modern economy, and in practice some of the biggest and most influential nations within the remaining EU would be among the hardest hit. For perspective, the UK is about as economically significant as half of the other EU member states put together (meaning the ones with the smallest economies, obviously). So even if the EU has a bigger percentage figure to throw around, the UK definitely has significant leverage to negotiate with.

In any case, those two statistics inevitably don't tell the whole story. Notably, they don't consider the effects on the UK in trade with non-EU partners and in its own internal market. Foreign trade with non-EU partners is actually a bit more than half of the UK's total these days, but perhaps more significantly, trade with non-EU partners has already been growing faster than with the EU even without the changes that Brexit will bring. If the UK does remain within the customs union as part of whatever deal is done, there will be significant costs for trade with non-EU partners as well as benefits for trade with the EU, and depending on how strong any deal is, EU regulations could hamper the UK's internal market as well. Likewise if the UK continues to allow completely free movement of labour to and from the EU, but consequently can't do so to and from other partners outside the EU, that isn't necessarily a win from the UK's perspective, even without the political impact.

This three-way balancing act between EU trade, non-EU trade and the internal market is perhaps the most interesting part of the whole situation, because it means if the EU draws its line too far across the sand, it really could be better for the UK to walk away, fall back on probably some minimal WTO-based arrangement for a while, and focus on building agreements with non-EU partners as soon as possible. That outcome most likely hurts everyone more than a comprehensive UK-EU trade deal negotiated in good faith for mutual benefit, but it might well cost the remaining 27 more in the long term, particularly if the UK is able to score a couple of quick wins with early deals and that sets the tone for future debate and negotiations.

What we most need right now is for the politicians and business leaders to stop posturing and saying silly things, and to let the grown-ups start talking about credible possibilities for a future arrangement so we can get past the big uncertainty phase as quickly as possible. No-one benefits, or probably gains any significant advantage in future negotiations, by keeping the whole community in suspense for any longer than is necessary.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

The UK will lose the access to the EU market

That is extremely unlikely, almost inconceivable. The EU trades with non-EU partners all the time. What we're really talking about here is tariffs and regulations, not some impermeable barrier that will suddenly stop UK companies from selling the EU customers or vice versa. There could be real trouble with certain areas, notably the passporting arrangements in the financial services sector, but it's not as if we're all going to stop trading with our nearest neighbours altogether whatever happens.

So good luck with getting good deals with big trading zones like the US or China with being alone.

The UK in its own right is one of the largest economies in the world, roughly equivalent to the 14 smallest EU nations combined. It's going to take time, probably a painfully long time, to get deals worked out, but life will go on in the meantime, and there are plenty of good reasons for other powerful nations to work something out with the UK for mutual benefit.

Add to that that Scotland and northern ireland still are undecided on their post Brexit fate.

Polls of the Scots since the referendum result have consistently shown that any second Scottish independence referendum would go the same way as last time, probably by a larger margin. The SNP's wishful thinking notwithstanding, right now it appears that the majority of Scottish voters don't want to leave the UK in order to stay in the EU.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Coward]

On passporting, I have to say it is surprising that the words spoken by obviously self-interested financial services companies are being taken at face value by many people. After all, this is an industry who many seem to argue can never be trusted to speak in any manner other than one motivated entirely by their own short-term self-interest.

The reality is that passporting is a sideshow and is about overhead costs for banks, not whether they can operate in any one country. They know that they need to continue to employ staff running "high value add" activities in London for a huge number of reasons, primarily to do with the network effect of having so many banking, asset management, legal, accounting, tax and other professionals in the same place. The UK government will continue to make it relatively easy (if perhaps expensive) to get visas for people in those jobs as they already do for non-EU citizens. But some "low value add" activities like clearing may now need to be either duplicated in two countries or relocated from the UK to somewhere else without passporting rights. That will increase overheads and entail significant one-off transition costs which they would obviously rather not pay. Note that these are not necessarily people costs as banks will likely take the opportunity to automate and locate in low-cost jurisdictions.

This is a bigger problem in turn because the European "high finance" banking market has basically been overcrowded for at least 20 years now - my suspicion is that a significant number of banks are at best breaking even but still desparate to be involved in "high finance" because it makes them seem more exciting and "cleverer". So the ability to pass those higher overheads on to customers is likely to be limited (at best) given this.

Politically it is only really the French pushing hard on this. They are still upset that after the Euro was established in the late 90s a huge amount of trading activity moved from Paris to London as banks consolidated to reduce costs during the early 2000s slowdown. I suspect that as the French realise that actually Eastern Europe will be the beneficiaries of what they are asking for their rhetoric will recede on this somewhat and pragmatism driven by Germany, Italy and Spain (whose banks are in a pretty perilous state already) will prevail and equivalency granted (given that equivalency is already granted for the Cayman Islands and the US, it is hard to argue that the UK, whose regulation will start in an identical position to the remainder EU, should not be given the same status).

However, passporting was not the main reason that banks lined up to support "Remain". What they were really worried about was the EU going down a different regulatory path on financial services which had the potential to cause significant damage to them. The UK had effectively been slowing this down behind the scenes but now that is gone. This is not about a competitive dynamic between the UK and the EU but the EU regulating out of existence (or out of profitability) a significant chunk of their business within the remainder EU. The remainder EU countries would probably be bigger losers economically than the UK on this, although the EU would argue this is with the benefit of a reduction in systemic risks. But from the banks' perspective that doesn't matter - it would simply be an overall smaller market for them.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[slapout]

"EU is going to want to punish UK severely as a warning to others to not leave"

I don't think I'd want to be in a union like that.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Fragnet]

Banks won't "relocate to Frankfurt", no. The EU is what, 15% of global GDP? London is a world financial centre. Worst case the banks open subsidiaries on the continent. The major bulk of their business will still take place in London and indeed many corporates in the EU will raise finance in the UK at least to avoid the idiotic banking rules the EU is sure to impose on them.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Zocalo]

To the economy as a whole, yes, the impact of the loss of passporting has the potential to be far worse, but that will take a while to trickle down to the man on the street and will be harder to directly attibute to BrExit when it gets there, especially given the poor grasp of cause and effect demonstrated by both camps during the campaign. Going to WTO defaults is far more immediate, hits everyone, and is directly and unequivocally attributable to BrExit. Having prices go up by a few percent because of extra trade tariffs, plus a few more percent dealing with the bureaucratic overhead is far more immediate, impacts everyone, and will likely result in some smaller (and probably not so small) import/export based businesses failing because they can't handle it.

That last bit is the key, and is what the Leave campaigners were railing against in the link I gave; it means the reintroduction of additional border checks, sample testing, warehouseing costs while all that takes place, and lots more red tape. For UK businesses that have grown accustomed to goods sailing back and forth to the EU with minimal border controls and delays, that's going to have a huge impact over and above the import/export tariffs; more paperwork, longer and more variable end-to-end shipping times playing havoc with just in time delivery (especially for perishable goods), more staff required to handle it all, and on and on - all of which adds up to more costs to be passed on up the chain to the man on the street. Here's a telling quote (and, remember, this is from a Pro-Leave group):

One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it. If, on the other hand, the official Leave campaign adopts it, the Remain side will be counting its blessings.

In effect, what the V4 group have done with that statement of intent is made BrExit into a more binary choice - and one they absolutely have the power to force - between an exit so soft that we might as well not bother and stick with what we have now, or an exit so hard we're almost certainly going to be economically fucked through the combined loss of passporting and fallback to WTO trade frameworks for years to come.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Malc]

Omigod it's not like we have to convince Germany to keep selling their cars to us, but that Germany has to convince 26 other states that the deal that's good for Germany is good for them too. Meanwhile Germany has managed amazing trade with China despite no EU-China trade agreement and we're wondering why the UK can't do the same, except perhaps that it produces shit that nobody wants to buy, no matter how much Sterling depreciates.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[butchersong]

Lets take France as an example. Recent polls indicate that Marine Le Pen (conservative party) has a good chance of winning next year's presidential election.
Link here
She has already promised a Frexit type referendum
link here should she win.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Malc]

Regardless of what happens with Brexit, the EU is still looking a lot less robust and attractive than it used to.

Ahh bless. The Brexiters in their Cloud Cuckoo Land. They think we've already Brexited and can't imagine another decade of this.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[tempmpi]

Exporting cars to the UK will be fine, even if we go back to a WTO-type deal and tariffs need to be paid. Germany exports cars to many countries outside the EU after all. But building cars in UK will be a big issue, as most suppliers are within continental Europe and while the overhead is reasonable for something as big and expensive as a car it isn't if you need to import many small car parts. The UK is too small to build their own complete car supply chain.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[iMadeGhostzilla]

Not gonna happen, for the reason of Germany alone. 50% of their Germany's GDP comes from exports in general and the UK is Germany's largest export market after the US. Germany is the core of EU and they will be desperate not to impact exporting to the UK and will be accepting of any treaties with the UK to keep the market.

In fact about a month ago, Germany’s Minister of European Affairs said "Given Britain’s size, significance, and its long membership of the European Union, there will probably be a special status which only bears limited comparison to that of countries that have never belonged to the European Union." So there you go.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[jabuzz]

The figure you are looking for is 3% of the rest of the EU GDP, so entirely manageable given a good portion of that will be irreplaceable, aka no source for the goods and services from anywhere else at least in the short term.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[jabuzz]

I know a number of people myself included that would with a heavy heart vote yes given a second chance.

My support for the union as JK Rowling put it was not unconditional and although I was born in England I can happily trace my Scottish ancestry back as far as 1152 at which point the historical records run out. I am also in the meantime exploring the option of a Polish passport as an option of retaining an EU passport post Brexit.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[jabuzz]

The problem with falling back on WTO rules is that the UK is at this point in time not a signatory in it's own right to the WTO and cannot take up a WTO membership in it's own right until *AFTER* it has left the EU. If you are stupid enough to believe that you can leave the EU on Monday and join the WTO on Tuesday I have a bridge to sell you, currently in use over the Firth of Forth, needed some repairs recently but we have a shiny new one opening next year so it's going spare.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[saforrest]

Yes, we read the same post.

The EU is not going to endanger nearly 20 percent of their economy to make a point. It would be far more dangerous to damage the EU economy than the optics of a successful Brexit.

There is not any leverage on either side. Both must get along and negotiate a mutually beneficial deal, or slit their own throats with a childish tantrum.

Yes, I agree they will cut a deal. This will probably happen after months of threats and bluster from both sides. It definitely won't be a pure "screw the Brits" deal. It will contain a few concessions, probably minor restrictions on free movement, which May can point to as victories. These will be the exception rather than the rule. By and large the post-Brexit economic reality will probably resemble the pre-Brexit reality, except that Britain will exercise less influence in EU affairs. The market access will come at a price. The notion being touted that the UK is sufficiently important by itself to set the terms of the deal it wants is simply wrong.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[brunes69]

The UK will import more from the EU regardless of what happens with Brexit, because it is economically infeasible for them to import as much from Asia or America as it is to import from across the channel.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Technically, the UK can't negotiate much of anything with other international partners until after it's left the EU, but if you believe the interested parties are going to sit around for 2+ years until the official Brexit before starting to talk then I'll sell you that bridge right back.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

You're kidding, surely? China is a major source of investment in the UK, and the UK imports lots of Chinese-made goods.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Have you somehow concluded that I'm a Brexiter? If so, I'm curious to know what I wrote that gave you that impression. My position is pragmatic realism: the situation is what it is, and regardless of who voted for what or why earlier this year, the important thing now is to make the best of it.

That means trying to mitigate any damage, though obviously that won't be completely possible. It also means trying to maximise the benefits, since obviously there will now be some opportunities that weren't available as part of the EU as well.

I don't think anything is served by trying to understate the damage, and not just economical damage, the UK could take in the short to medium term both from uncertainty in the immediate future and then for a while after Brexit itself. I also don't think anything is served by pretending there aren't aspects of the EU we'll be well rid of when we do go, or that the UK will be in some nightmarish position of not being able to do anything and collapsing into some sort of half-racist, half-economic apocalypse while everyone else in the EU is immune to the same problems.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Coward]

The UK makes up about 1/6th of the EU's trade.

Yes, but only to a few EU countries. The rest do minimal trade with the UK and are far more concerned with freedom of movement. Absent that, the UK isn't getting a deal.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Ryanrule]

But you will not get the nice tax rates. UK financial services will no longer be competitive. London will drop on the world stage.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

I think we're talking about different things here. The EU changed the VAT rules last year to do exactly the opposite of what a common market is supposed to do, so instead of being able to trade internationally under the same rules across the whole market, which was basically the situation before, a lot of businesses now have to be aware of all the local rates and rules in every member state.

There is so much overhead involved as a direct result of that change that a lot of microbusinesses had to stop trading with other European nations or even failed altogether, and it's an ongoing burden even for those SMEs that are large enough to carry on. To add insult to injury, the authorities responsible didn't even realise that was going to happen despite years of discussions and planning before making the changes, and while they have now acknowledged that and said the situation needs to be looked at again, it will probably be multiple years before that happens. In the meantime, small EU businesses in fields like digital sales and web services are facing an unnecessary barrier and will continue to struggle.

On your point about London, I don't think it will necessarily be a bad thing in the long term if the UK economy does take a bit of a hit but it's the City financial services sector that is taking it. It will do damage in the short term, as with any drop in economic productivity and corresponding drop in tax revenues, but we have too much reliance on that one specific service sector for my liking, and rebalancing the economy towards manufacturing and other services seems like a healthier plan overall.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[AmiMoJo]

In fact only 8% of the EU's exports (by value) go to the UK. Also all the talk about German car makers not accepting a 10% tariff looks kinda silly when on the day of the referendum result they lost more than 10% just due to the Pound crashing,

The City (London's financial centre) is operating on the assumption that the UK will come out of the single market. Anything less would be politically unacceptable to a lot of people, because it would mean accepting freedom of movement.

It's looking pretty bleak. Financial institutions will have to move when they lose unrestricted access to the Eurozone. Nissan has factories elsewhere in the EU and uses an internal bidding process when deciding where to build new cars, and the UK's factory in Sunderland is unlikely to win much now. Interestingly Sunderland voted quite strongly in favour of Brexit.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[AmiMoJo]

The company I work for exports a lot of stuff to the EU and the rest of the world. Exporting to the EU is much, much easier because the rules are harmonized, and so there is a lot less paperwork and dealing with import tariffs and an office in one country and server other EU member states near it easily enough. Outside the EU things get tricky, especially when trying to move hazardous materials like lithium batteries.

After Brexit our laws are likely to diverge from the EU. After all, what is the point of "taking back control" if they don't? I imagine data protection will be weakened fairly quickly, to allow for greater domestic spying and access to browsing history and email by local government and random agencies like Trading Standards. If you read the submissions made regarding the Snooper's Charter, you can see that they are chomping at the bit to violate your privacy. Human rights and employment law will be gutted too, to make us more "competitive". The race to the bottom is just getting started.

More over, we are going to have to adopt US and Chinese standards to get the trade deals we need. Being only a small player we can't dictate terms any more, we will just have to adopt their rules in much the same way as we have to adopt the EU ones.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[AmiMoJo]

Adopting Schengen would be the absolute best case outcome for the UK, I really hope they can force us to do it. At the moment using EEA treaty rights is the only way a lot of people who married foreigners can get their families a visa.

Some Brexiteers promised that it would get easier for people married to foreigners, but the week after the result one of them was on Newsnight (BBC TV programme) reneging on it. The good news is that David Cameron's reforms which would have made the EEA route difficult to use have been scrapped now, but on the other hand the uncertainty is causing problems too and the Home Office is just delaying as much as possible.

People who think that immigration will come down to the "tens of thousands" are in for a shock.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[locofungus]

Basically, they have promised to veto any Article 50 agreement that doesn't continue to allow free travel (with ID) for their citizens to the UK, as is currently the case. Any Article 50 agreement requires a unanamous vote in favour - all 27 remaining countries

This isn't quite correct. An article 50 agreement requires, iirc at least 50% of member states representing at least 66% of the EU population.

However, I think disconnecting access to the free market from freedom of travel does require unanimity. That's an independent rule of the EU IIUC unrelated to article 50.

What isn't obvious at this point is whether the UK can negotiate some (acceptable) restrictions in trade in return for some (acceptable) restrictions in movement.

It may well end up with WTO rules due to the 2 year negotiating period expiring. Britain will then, of course, lose it's passporting rights to the financial markets. Whether the finance industry will have relocated in time is debatable - it probably depends on how early on failure of negotiations becomes apparent.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[dunkelfalke]

France is Germany's largest export market after the US.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[Ed Avis]

Yeah, because the polls got the last referendum right.

They did, pretty much. It was the betting markets that got it very wrong.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[mjwx]

The UK can of course leave the EU and choose to allow free movement of people in exchange for access to the single market.

Assuming we don't have a general election where the major parties stand on a Breturn platform, that is the most likely scenario.

I find it ironic as this will stick in the craw of all the hardcore Brexiters, which will be entertaining.

Right now, both the UK and EU are lining up attack dogs to go at each others throats with the UK appointing known Brexiters to the exit strategy and the EU posting people who are known to be anti-British to be their opposite numbers. Good time to get out the popcorn. My greatest regret is that Nigel Farage isn't in the middle of it, in a battle of wits, Farage is as effective as a banana in a gunfight.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Those are all very reasonable concerns, and to some extent I think I share them all, though I'm less pessimistic in some respects than you seem to be.

While a lot of the EU regulations affecting online businesses are awful, some of the regulations dealing with physical goods seem more relevant and keeping in compliance with them must be advantageous for businesses in those markets. There's no doubt that this is a loss if a good alternative arrangement can't be found before Brexit.

There is also definitely a danger, particularly with our current almost non-existent opposition, of our own government running for the low ground at its citizens' expense on many issues as soon as they are free of the EU restrictions. I'm less pessimistic about this one, at least for the near future, for two simple reasons.

Firstly, I don't think the current government has the strength to actually do most of those things any time soon. The Snooper's Charter is an odd case, and I'm very curious to know why opposition to it from other parties suddenly seems to have almost disappeared after being so strong previously. However, other than that, I can't see Theresa May's current administration having the votes in Parliament to do things like repealing the HRA, even if the timing of Brexit would technically make it possible, before the next general election. Likewise, when there is already severe disruption in the NHS and the railway network due to ongoing industrial action, trying to significantly weaken employment law seems like a recipe for galvanising the unions and the Labour party (whoever is leading it after the weekend) into much stronger opposition.

Secondly, I think there will be a lot of debate about some of these issues in the UK as we try to disentangle our laws from the EU over the next few years. Some of that debate is long overdue, in my opinion, as I think we have become a bit too comfortable trusting that EU rules would do these important jobs for us. I don't think raising awareness of the real implications of reducing employees' rights, privacy, trading standards and other similar protections can be a bad thing in the long term, and at least if we're relying on our national laws to protect all of those things then any government that wants to change them will know it may face consequences for that later. Time will tell whether that is a sufficient safeguard, given our rather undemocratic electoral systems and the corresponding lack of real world accountability for a government.

Re: Nobody knows yet

[vyvepe]

In fact only 8% of the EU's exports (by value) go to the UK.

This is probably more correct than 1/6 (16.7%) mentioned before. In 2013, UK imports represented 9.7% of the exports of all other EU countries.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/s...

Re:Nobody knows yet

[iMadeGhostzilla]

That's true, I mixed it up. UK is Germany's #3. Still critical at the time when Germany's export are down 10% year over year.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[dunkelfalke]

What are you talking about?
Does that look like down 10% year after year to you?

Re:Nobody knows yet

[Cederic]

As someone that lives outside of London, GOOD.

A massive factor in the referendum is that people living in England outside of 2-3 major cities are getting fucked senseless by the constant investment in London and the utter absence of benefit from any growth in the economy as it's driven by immigration.

We pay for the non-productive immigration on top of that.

So anything that reduces the attractiveness of London to foreign immigrants I will find it hard to see as a bad thing.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[iMadeGhostzilla]

"In unadjusted terms, exports were down 10 percent over July 2015."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ger...

"Compared with July 2015, exports were down a startling 10 percent."

http://www.econotimes.com/Germ...

Re:Nobody knows yet

[dunkelfalke]

So basically, you see exports of a single bloody month dropping compared to the same month in the previous year and then pull the "year after year" out of your arse. Now I understand why you guys believed the "350 millions per week" bullshit.

You see, in March and July 2015 Germany has exported more than in any other month in the whole German history. It was an all time high, hence somewhat difficult to repeat.

Re:Nobody knows yet

[iMadeGhostzilla]

So what is your point? The news reports all over are saying German exports are down, things are not looking good, "economic data that paintes a gloomy picture for German manufacturing" (http://www.2bbc.com/news/business-37316827)

What I'm saying is that Germany is so dependent on their exports that at the moment when the reports are negative they are not going to "punish" the UK or do anything that would endanger their economy further, Brexit or no Brexit. What are you saying?

Re:Nobody knows yet

[iMadeGhostzilla]

Corrected link: http://www.bbc.com/news/busine...

EU lawsuits against tech companies

[OrangeTide]

If tax evading tech companies are sick of being dragged through European courts and fined hundreds of millions of euros, perhaps they should welcome Brexit with open arms. Imagine, a small island nation that will be easily influenced by promises from corporations to win votes for the politically ambitious. Everything is up for negotiation in the UK.

Brexit means that the UK can be the new America for these tech companies.

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[Anonymous Coward]

But they're in Ireland to be in the EU free market. And exiting the EU means exiting the free market (if you want the free market, you must allow the free market to include the people moving for jobs in a free market of jobs, which apparently was the reason we wanted to leave: stop EU immigrants coming in whether we want them to or not, so we can't remain in the EU free market).

So please tell me again why they would want to come to a tiny overcrowded island near Europe *and still have to have a European HQ in the EU*????

Also, for JustNiz, what do you think "points based" immigration means? When you have higher demand for workers in one area, they'll let immigrants in rather than increase pay. Just as if they had the power to freely advertise jobs EU wide. So no change there either.

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[OrangeTide]

It will take time to drive the quality of life down for UK workers so that businesses can find the place attractive for a HQ.
But if at the very least they can do their banking and lawsuits there.

Other islands that attract business: Cayman Islands, Channel Islands, Bermuda, Monaco, ...
(of course Isle of Man is already a tax haven, so we don't really need Britain)

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[jiriw]

Sure, go right ahead. All England and Wales have to do to make this break really quick and (iron wall-like) permanent is pull a stunt like Ireland did, tell the rest of the EU about it beforehand (or not) and that the EU can, taxes concerning, go eff themselves. The rest of the UK isn't really sure about brexit yet - they are keeping all options open, including secession from the UK.
I'm pretty sure the UK politicians know that themselves as well, especially those (who were) pro-brexit - when you look into their post-brexit-vote behaviour. But history has seen stranger things. Germany declaring war on both the United States and Russia, France trying to occupy Moscow in winter or Japan attacking Pearl Harbour. Sometimes people choose to do things that are doomed to fail from the get go. I'm afraid when it reaches that point we can only let it rage and try to build from the ashes.

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[T.E.D.]

Imagine, a small island nation that will be easily influenced

Were we actually short on those already?

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[unixisc]

If tax evading tech companies are sick of being dragged through European courts and fined hundreds of millions of euros, perhaps they should welcome Brexit with open arms. Imagine, a small island nation that will be easily influenced by promises from corporations to win votes for the politically ambitious. Everything is up for negotiation in the UK.

Brexit means that the UK can be the new America for these tech companies.

This! Also, companies that are unhappy w/ UK leaving the EU - as mentioned in the summary above - have so many choices - from Lisbon to Athens, and from Rome to Stockholm. In the meantime, companies that don't like the EU's Byzantine labyrinth of regulations can go to the UK to set up shop.

Win-win for everybody!

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[OrangeTide]

This was my tongue-in-cheek comment to compare the post-Brexit UK to the Cayman Islands.

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[OrangeTide]

Well companies that move to the UK probably won't have to pay a fair share of taxes, so I don't think it's a win for the UK.

But for business it's probably a win, assuming we didn't trigger another financial collapse.

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[thegarbz]

I don't know of any tax evading company that has been dragged through the EU court. The only thing I know of is an EU court ruling some tax agreements illegal, but that is entirely between the company and whichever country they made the dodgy deal with.

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[OrangeTide]

Several companies owe billions in back taxes, according to an EU commission. I think we agree there.
I don't know what threshold you have set for the definition of the colloquialism of "dragged through court", but you're the one that is being unreasonable here.

Re:EU lawsuits against tech companies

[AmiMoJo]

If we become a tax haven the EU will just put even more tariffs and restrictions on us. That's where the EU is heading.

Not what you think

[JustNiz]

> nine out of 10 British tech leaders opposing Brexit before the June vote

Yeah It had little/nothing to do with potential markets. It was all to do with holes in the UK labour laws meaning that companies based there could continue to replace local skilled workforce en masse with cheaper foreign labour, which was a practice already illegal in most other EU countries.

Re: Not what you think

[MartinG]

Cheaper or better? In the tech sector, especially niche stuff or startups you want the best people, not just the best people from the same country as you. If you don't get the best your competition will.

Re: Not what you think

[JustNiz]

Cheaper. Definately cheaper. In my experience nearly all managers, especially non-techincal ones, simply assume that all developers have the same productivity, quality, and are plug-and-play.

Of course...

[renesch]

... compared to Dublin, London's time zone and English is a HUGE competitive advantage

Re:fallacy

[Guybrush_T]

"open market" has always been inside a group, and means it is much easier to do business since the rules are the same, hence extending across europe is easy.

If you're outside of that market, then it doesn't mean you cannot enter it, just that you'll have to go through the usual painful process of inter-country rules. And frankly the EU market has historically been easier to enter than the US market. Protectionism is much lower in the EU than in the US.

So EU-to-EU is an open market. EU-to-Others is a controlled market as anything else in this world.

england, today, would make orwell cry

[TheGratefulNet]

I used to travel to the UK quite regularly, in the 80's and some in the 90's. I would not recognize it now, in many ways. they have gone so far into the nanny state and citizen spying, I would never voluntarily move to england and I don't even really want to fly there anymore.

england has jumped the shark and they have so many problems, it would be absurd for a new tech company to move there. the only reason would be for localized business or to have local feet on the ground. but to start a tech company there? LOL, indeed.

Re:england, today, would make orwell cry

[myowntrueself]

I used to travel to the UK quite regularly, in the 80's and some in the 90's. I would not recognize it now, in many ways. they have gone so far into the nanny state and citizen spying, I would never voluntarily move to england and I don't even really want to fly there anymore.

I was in the UK (where I grew up) for a vacation with my wife, who had never been there before and is from a former HARDCORE communist country. She was amazed at all the cameras and surveillance everywhere, even in the public toilets (she was shocked at how filthy they were, even near Buckingham Palace and having to pay to use these filthy toilets).

The most observed population outside of North Korea.

Before Brexit I had a hard time imagining living back in the UK. After Brexit and the vacation I know for sure I couldn't stand living there, and I don't know how anyone can, except the paranoid and stupid.

Re:england, today, would make orwell cry

[EvilAlphonso]

True story... I was offered a very good permanent position in the UK 18 months ago, basically manager-level salary and sign-in bonus for a senior technical position. Relocating to an English-speaking country would have made life easier for my wife, but it would have meant really long commutes because of real estate prices in that part of the UK... and also because the London area depresses me if I stay there more than a couple of days. I ended up turning down the offer because it was a couple of hundred quids per month too short for the transition period while I sold my house and uprooted my family. I sort of had regrets about it until the Brexit vote, but I am now glad I didn't take the job.

Oblig. Quote

[avandesande]

Khan!!!!

--- Captain Kirk

Re:fallacy

[myowntrueself]

if a country needs to be in the EU to have access to another country's markets, then that is NOT an "open market"

What David Davis (the minister for Brexit), and many other English people just realised in the last month or so is that you can't make trade deals with individual EU member states because the EU is a single market. You make a trade deal with the EU not with France, Germany, Holland etc.

The fact that Davis didn't already know this, and he of all people should have, just shows how dumb and naive the English are regarding the EU.

EU Refactor

[Tablizer]

The EU agreements are too all-or-nothing. There should be a way nation can skip or reduce some "features" of the agreement, such as open-borders. However, they'd be required to trade other things in exchange, like maybe promising more bail-out money for other member nations in the future.

It's like those damned bundled cable TV "deals". I wanna pick and choose rather than blunt all-or-nothing kind of packages.

"remains Europe's hub for the technology sector"

[hey!]

Which is kind of contingent upon being part of Europe, economically and administratively speaking.

Life is about tradeoffs, and of course nobody can decide for other people whether the tradeoff is worth it. So if Britons want Brexit, fine. But rejecting one tradeoff means accepting another one; in return for being freed from all the annoying EU stuff, they'll have to pay a price. Insofar as they don't pay that price, then the substance of all that annoying stuff is likely not to go away. So suppose you're a US company interested in the Continental market, not just the UK. The best you could hope for would be the reestablishment of a more complicated version of the status quo.

The uncertainty is such that only a fool would bank on London maintaining its role in the EU. That might happen, or it might not. But either way if you're an American company, well, educated Germans usually speak very good English, often better than the average American does. The central location is also a little more convenient for operations, so locating in Munich is like putting your US HQ in Chicago.

Apple and the EU tax

[dkone]

If England were smart they would lure Apple move from Ireland to set up shop there and move out of Ireland. Nothing against the Irish, they are not the ones that are giving Apple the screws. With an independent England they could grant the tax breaks and not have the commitment broken by a third party after the fact. That would help England with the perceived problems of Brexit and give Apple a graceful way to say FU to the EU.

Re:Apple and the EU tax

[EvilAlphonso]

You can remove "non-US" from that sentence... Apple funneled money through its shell corporation in Ireland to avoid paying tax in the US as well, according to the US Senate in 2013.

Re:Apple and the EU tax

[bankman]

...give Apple a graceful way to say FU to the EU...

But what's that worth? Apple employs what, 5000 to 6000 people on their campus in Ireland, so losing those may impact the Dublin economy in the very short term but will do absolutely nothing to the EU. It's not like the company was paying any meaningful amount of taxes anyway. The economic loss on the whole would be short term and negligible.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!

[Matheus]

"citing a poll commissioned by London & Partners, the mayor's economic promotional company"

As Slashvertisements go this one is a bit more like news BUT it's still PR. Of course the Mayoral commissioned poll is going to show whatever the Mayor needs it to show. And of course the papers are going to let the Mayor get in all of his sound bites as he scrambles to lessen the impact Brexit will have on his people (bottom line).

Meh...

Re:Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!

[Fragnet]

Well spotted.

Re:Londonistan

[ichthus]

but you're saying the Brexit was more than economical issues then?

Anyone who thinks the motivation was solely economic is dreadfully un-newsed. Absolutely -- the popularity of the Brexit stems largely from the same issues that have propelled Trump to the forefront: Hillary represents globalism and the same kind of inorganic, forced culture change (or abandonment) that Obama advocated before the UN yesterday. Trump, however, is riding the wave of preservation of national sovereignty.

Obligatory

[kuzb]

KHAAAAAAaaaaaaaan!

Not so sure

[nospam007]

"While Brexit means London soon won't have access to the EU's open market across the continent, US tech leaders still choose the city for its "favorable time zones and lack of language barriers,"

The same can be said for Ireland which has and will have access to the open market.

Re:Not so sure

[Xtifr]

As an American, I think that describing the UK or Ireland as having "a lack of language barriers" to be hopelessly naive.

"The United States and Great Britain are two countries separated by a common language." -- George Bernard Shaw

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Germany had a higher percentage of people who are fluent in American English than the UK or Ireland. :)

Anyway, according to the EU, Ireland speaks Irish Gaelic, and when the UK leaves, there will no longer be any officially-English-speaking countries in the EU. That's going to have some interesting repercussions! (Unless Scotland manages to wrangle a way to stay when the rest of the UK leaves. Which I know they desperately want to do.)

But yeah, Brexit could be a real boon for Ireland. Possibly enough to make up for the fact that their current biggest trading partner is planning to leave the union. I'd certainly be looking at Dublin as a strong alternative to London. If I were the Irish government, I'd be out pitching "we're not leaving!" to all sorts of companies!

Re:Not so sure

[An dochasac]

As an American, I think that describing the UK or Ireland as having "a lack of language barriers" to be hopelessly naive.

"The United States and Great Britain are two countries separated by a common language." -- George Bernard Shaw

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Germany had a higher percentage of people who are fluent in American English than the UK or Ireland. :)

Kudos for quoting an Irish poet to make your point. But language variations within the UK and Ireland are broader than between Ireland and the U.S. And if you think there are no cultural variations within the US, you need to broaden your circle of friends. A New Yorker is far more likely to understand an Dubliner than a creole from the rural Louisiana. Culturally Ireland is nearer to the US than the UK is, more cliques than classism. Politically Ireland is also nearer to the NorthEastern US and even Silicon Valley than either is to the rural south or Midwest. Germany may have more cultural similarity to the upper Midwest.

Anyway, according to the EU, Ireland speaks Irish Gaelic, and when the UK leaves, there will no longer be any officially-English-speaking countries in the EU. That's going to have some interesting repercussions! (Unless Scotland manages to wrangle a way to stay when the rest of the UK leaves. Which I know they desperately want to do.)

But yeah, Brexit could be a real boon for Ireland. Possibly enough to make up for the fact that their current biggest trading partner is planning to leave the union. I'd certainly be looking at Dublin as a strong alternative to London. If I were the Irish government, I'd be out pitching "we're not leaving!" to all sorts of companies!

I wish this were true but Dublin is currently a very poor alternative to London. Its planning laws restrict development both vertically and horizontally. Decent architectural firms might be able to raize or remodel the thousands of derelict buildings but nothing happens overnight here and the transportation infrastructure is abysmal. Another of a series of planned strikes by Dublin Bus tomorrow will bring an already clogged city to a screeching halt. Ireland's real-estate bubble was the worst in the world and its government has been trying to reinflate it since 2007. As a result rent to wage ratios are about as bad as London with the caveat that the properties here are kips (look it up, if it's not an American word, it should be.) Ireland's government-owned "bad bank" NAMA may have organized some sweetheart deals on foreclosed properties with foreign REIT firms including one managed by former US VP Dan Quayle. Where the military-industrial complex and agribusiness own the US, the property industry seems to own the Irish government.

As for "not leaving the E.U.",Britain's Brexit Minister David Davis seems to have forgotten that Ireland isn't part of the UK. In fact several EU diplomats and nearly all US corporations and websites treat the Republic of Ireland as a part of the UK, now 100 years after the 1916 Easter Rising eventually led to this terrible beauty that we call Ireland.

Re:Business hates uncertainty, plus a rant

[EvilAlphonso]

The EU is playing a losing game, in the long term. The open-borders, pro-immigration politicians (like Merkel) refuse to admit that they were wrong. They refuse to acknowledge that national borders have a purpose. That unlimited immigration is the same as cultural suicide.

Do national borders really serve a purpose in Europe nowadays? I can understand EU-bloc level borders on the outside, but inside Europe? I grew up in Belgium, which used to be part of what is now the Netherlands, in the part that actually spoke Middelfrankisch until my parent's generation. Culturally, you're probably almost as Belgian as I am... I just happen to share a language with 40% of Belgians because that's where I went to school, and the transmission of the local language was cut after WW2.

I have worked in Luxembourg most of my career, except for a few contracts in the UK and in Japan. I've lived for about 10 years in Luxembourg, getting along just fine with the locals even tho I only have rudiments of the language (also part of the Middelfrankisch family). I've lived for 10 years in Germany, in a part that used to belong to Luxembourg, then to France, before going back to Germany. I was culturally closer to the Germans of that area than I was to Belgians, even tho I didn't speak German... I'm now living in France, smack on the historical border between France and Burgundy, with the remains of the French wall in my garden. I also happen to culturally fit in that area, most people already consider me local even tho I've only been there for 2 months. I've had a similar experience when I lived for a year in the south of France.

The borders in western Europe have moved so much post 1830 that they are pretty much meaningless at a cultural level. Some of those borders were drawn that way for military or commercial reasons, with no interest whatsoever in culture. Also, except for the German border, those borders were pretty open for my whole life. For me, it's always been normal to cross the border without any special papers for a quick shopping trip or to go to the movies. Pre-EU, it was just more of a pain because of currencies and because I actually had to stop at the border to show my papers to the I also happen to cross two of those meaningless borders on the way to work every morning.

Their stubbornness means that the rebound will put extremist parties from the other side of the spectrum in control. In five years, we won't have just border controls (those are inevitable, at this point). By the time the reigns of power can be ripped from Progressive hands, the resentment and fear will have grown to such proportions that even peaceful, integrated immigrants will face persecution. Good intentions are, as usual, paving the road to Hell.

I sort of agree with your idea about the border controls and worse... but we disagree on what will trigger it. The extreme right has been rising pretty much since the oil and steel crisis in the 70s. Every time either the economy or the lower classes take a hit, they gain votes by promising the return of full employment for the nationals.

Re:Londonistan

[unixisc]

But weren't the rapes a German event, as opposed to a British one? Not that people in England wouldn't notice what was happening across the channel in Deutschland

Re:fallacy

[Fragnet]

We don't need to be in the EU. We're a member of the WTO. So are all the countries of the EU and so is the EU itself. Under WTO rules we automatically have access to EU markets. They just won't be tariff free. It'll put pressure on UK businesses to cut costs and invest in increasing productivity. The fact is the Germans don't want their car makers, where the UK is their biggest market, to have a 10% tariff so either they'll make stuff in the UK to sell to that market (investment for the UK) or they'll agree to a mutual reduction in tariff barriers.

Apart from anti-dumping tariffs are fundamentally self-harming.

Re:Business hates uncertainty, plus a rant

[Fragnet]

I have no idea why people are worried about the extreme right. The extreme left is the bigger danger. After all, they're responsible for this mess in the first place.

European pillows

[unixisc]

Those regulated pillows have definitely helped the EU keep its head in the right places

Re:'Open market' really important for Europe, and

[Fragnet]

Doing business in Europe is already challenging. The problem here is that exports are a small proportion of total national income yet 100% of the economy has to operate using the same rules. Even your local hairdresser. I'm not saying they're wrong, just that it seems to me that relieving the voters of their democracy and 1,000 years of Common Law tradition seems like quite a high price to pay. And even then people like Dyson were pro-Leave. He knows his business growth is in the rest of the world and that the EU screws manufacturers like him with regulation to protect his competitors in France and Germany.

The EU is a protectionist racket that doesn't benefit the UK, and people are talking about it like it's some kind of global free-trading hub.

Re:Londonistan

[ichthus]

The rapes have occurred in Germany, France and England. I'd provide links, but it's just so easy to google "Muslim rape gangs UK" and get results.

Re:fallacy

[tempmpi]

That 109 regulations regarding pillows is bullshit. There are 109 regulations where the word pillow appears somewhere, but almost none of them has anything to do with regular pillows: See this video from John Oliver.

Re:Business hates uncertainty, plus a rant

[unixisc]

Arab/Muslim refugees came from countries like Algeria, Morocco, Pakistan long before even 9/11. It was decades of just letting them come in w/o checking out their savage beliefs where they came from.

Re:The UK faces a potential economic boom

[HiThere]

I think you need a word with your accountant. His figures disagree with the other figures I've seen.

Your advertising started way back in 2011

[Provocateur]

BBC Top Gear was your spokesmen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

- OR - Top Gear Christmas Special 2011

Tech companies hate it

[plopez]

Because it impedes the supply of cheap Eastern European and refugee labor. They'll have to survive by *gulp* innovating and reducing the amount of hookers, coke, and trophy wives they buy.

Re:Business hates uncertainty, plus a rant

[EvilAlphonso]

The fun bit is that the vast majority (I would say "all so far" but I don't have the hard data to support that point) of Muslims involved in terror attacks on European soil were European citizens, born in Europe to the people we imported "en masse" when we couldn't get enough cheap hands for coal mining and the steel industry. Stopping the immigration of Muslims 10, 20 or even 30 years ago wouldn't have avoided the issue as that ship had already sailed. In the unofficial hierarchy of humanity, the immigrants of non-European origin were more or less classed as sub-humans. When the local steel industry sort of collapsed in the 1970s, the Muslim immigrants were parked in modern ghettos inside European cities.

Based on first-hand experience in places like Molenbeek (I have lived two streets outside Molenbeek, in Ganshoren), Schaerbeek or Droixhe... the widespread change in behavior started happening in the generation after mine. The kids of immigrants about my age believed in the system and did what they could to climb the social ladder through hard work. They had great grades in school, studied hard, and never got invited to job interviews. There were obviously rotten apples as well, but I didn't encounter many.

Their younger siblings saw the outcome of the hard work, and decided that a life of petty criminality would be better. I guess that the mass media glorification of the thug life didn't exactly help, either. I have seen similar changes in behavior in non-Muslim populations for the exact same reasons. Places with high unemployment are breeding grounds for criminality of all sorts. It's just that for the Muslims parked in the ghettos, there's an added risk of radicalization. In the other population groups, it generally remains in the drug/arms trafficking, money laundering and prostitution.

The flip side is that in places where they do have upwards social mobility, I don't see the amount of petty criminality or radicalization seen in the places where they're parked like cattle. The Muslims I have encountered through work are pretty much only going through the motions of religion because their parents expect them to... they do enjoy booze and other things, but they still do the Ramadan fast "because that's how they grew up". They also marry outside their community, so I expect that their families will be fully integrated in a generation or two.

It's almost as if people who have nothing to lose make rash and irrational choices.

I'm not sure I agree with you on the last bit. If that was the case, why was there so much opposition to the French proposed law on revoking the French nationality of terrorists? That would seem like a good obvious way to keep them out of the territory.

(Economic) suicide is painless.

[Smid]

It brings on many changes
And I can take or leave it if I please.

Re:Business hates uncertainty, plus a rant

[EvilAlphonso]

It would be interesting to see the same study from a well-known bastion of left-wing thinking performed in Europe.

They can still change their mind about brexit...

[BlueCoder]

I personally believed that brexit would pass.

It actually opens up a path for global EU reform. Things such as a particular country ability to override particular EU laws and regulations but with certain proportional financial penalties that ramp up over time; and or phase in's. And immigration reform. Namely the right of countries to refuse new immigrants. (If a country chooses to adopt a new immigrant they should stay in that country for years to adapt and prove they are civilly minded; I say 10 years. You need to show you are well adapted and civilly minded.) And actually funding for a real border. No country should be forced to accept immigrants even for humanitarian reasons.

Image the embarrassment of certain dictatorship committees if 2/3rds of counties voluntarily choose to not implement a policy but rather pay the penalty.

They can reform the EU on condition that the UK re-votes to stay in.

Re:fallacy

[Cederic]

Really? Evidence?

Not to mention you missing entirely that negotiating with the EU requires negotiating individually with its member states. The agreement may be at the EU level across all its members but each member will have specific demands and expectations.

The fact that you didn't already know this, just shows how dumb and naive you are regarding the EU.

Re:Business hates uncertainty, plus a rant

[Cederic]

The open-borders, pro-immigration politicians (like Merkel) refuse to admit that they were wrong.

Although Merkel has admitted this week that she didn't get it right.

Only took a massive election defeat too. That's right Mutti, you done fucked up good and proper.

Re:fallacy

[iggymanz]

wrong

oÂpen marÂket (noun)
an unrestricted market with free access by and competition of buyers and sellers.

It is harder to do business in a market fettered by artificial restrictions