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NASA Has No Plans To Buy More Soyuz Seats (spaceflightnow.com)

schwit1 writes: Both Boeing and SpaceX better get their manned capsules working by 2019, because NASA at this point has no plans to buy more seats on Russian Soyuz capsules after the present contract runs out. Spaceflight Now reports: "Even as the commercial crew schedules move later into 2018, NASA officials say they are not considering extending the contract with Roscosmos -- the Russian space agency -- for more launches in 2019. The last Soyuz launch seats reserved for U.S. astronauts are at the end of 2018. It takes more than two years to procure components and assemble new Soyuz capsules, so Russia needed to receive new Soyuz orders from NASA by some time this fall to ensure the spacecraft would be ready for liftoff in early 2019." The second paragraph above notes that even if NASA decided it needed more Soyuz launches, it is probably too late to buy them and have them available by 2019. "A Soyuz is a complicated vehicle, and a complicated vehicle doesn't come into existence in a matter of days," said Kirk Shireman, NASA's space station program manager. "It takes over two years to build a Soyuz, so yes, at some point in time, building a new Soyuz vehicle is not an option. We're working with our Russian counterparts on exactly when that is. We have not crossed that date yet, but I believe the date is in sight. It will be this calendar year when we will cross the point where we won't be able to build a Soyuz in time for when our last seats that we've already procured expire," Shireman said.

44 of 87 comments (clear)

  1. CONgress is the issue by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Hopefully CONgress properly fund human launch.

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    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  2. no soyuz seats = no space for nasa astronauts by sittingnut · · Score: 4, Interesting

    "boeing and spacex better get their manned capsules working by 2019"
    lol. perhaps in 2025 at >10x cost of soyuz (inflation adjusted)
    enough said.

    better lay off the astronauts till then.

    1. Re:no soyuz seats = no space for nasa astronauts by cmseagle · · Score: 1

      Citation on the "10x cost" claim?

    2. Re:no soyuz seats = no space for nasa astronauts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      History.

    3. Re: no soyuz seats = no space for nasa astronauts by WindBourne · · Score: 1
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      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    4. Re:no soyuz seats = no space for nasa astronauts by tsotha · · Score: 1

      SpaceX was certainly on track to deliver people to the ISS far more cheaply than Soyuz. Whether or not that remains the case will depend somewhat on the latest failure.

  3. Re:The solution is simple... by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

    No need. The Chinese already have a copy. The Shenzhou.

  4. Good by elrous0 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ISS, like the Space Shuttle program before, is more of an ongoing PR promotion (and jobs program) than any kind of useful scientific mission.

    Either send humans to Mars or stick with unmanned missions. More manned trips just to sit in LEO and pretend to do something useful are just pissing away money. It's time to end the charade.

    Sadly, NASA will probably just end up funneling even more money to politically-connected contractors with the excuse that we need to build our own rockets, throwing even more good money after bad.

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
  5. SpaceX Dragon 2 should be ready by frank249 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It is proven technology as it already delivers supplies to ISS and returns safely. They have tested the abort system on the ground along with the other systems. I do not see why they will not be ready for flights in 2018. Boeing on the other hand is still way behind

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    Today's vices may be tomorrow's virtues.

    1. Re:SpaceX Dragon 2 should be ready by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It is proven technology as it already delivers supplies to ISS and returns safely. They have tested the abort system on the ground along with the other systems. I do not see why they will not be ready for flights in 2018. Boeing on the other hand is still way behind

      Keep dreaming. SpaceX has never launched a person into space. Dragon 2 may be ready for testing by 2018, but given SpaceX's recent spotty record with launches, NASA in no way will put an astronaut on a SpaceX rocket or an untested Dragon 2. Their safety rating and supplier quality control needs to be dramatically improved before that happens.

    2. Re:SpaceX Dragon 2 should be ready by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Would this be the same spacex that has blown up two rockets within the last year? One for mysterious reasons unknown?

      I don't think nasa will let its astronauts ride on that contraption until spacex does the hard work to change their corporate culture to value reliability -before- fancy tail landings, no matter what the may have to say publicly.

      And Boeing? always delayed "another 6 months". But to their credit it probably wont' blow up if they ever launch it.

    3. Re:SpaceX Dragon 2 should be ready by nick1austin · · Score: 2

      One one rocket blew up this year, and one last year (two rockets in two years). The reasons for both are known with over 99% certainty. (CRS-7 was failure of a helium tank strut, AMOS-6 was formation of crystals of solid oxygen within the COPV overwrap). Both NASA and SpaceX investigated the CRS_7 accident and disagreed about probably cause. SpaceX went with the NASA report and implemented ALL of NASAs recommendations. Dragon 2 shares a common design with Red Dragon and there is no way Elon will allow that slip because Red Dragon can only launch on certain dates and missing 2018 would mean a delay to Red Dragon of 27 months.

    4. Re:SpaceX Dragon 2 should be ready by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      Oooh, more details on the solid oxygen crystals cause idea? I hadn't seen that one yet.

      Also, I hadn't heard that SpaceX and NASA disagreed on the cause of the CRS-7 failure... more like SpaceX figured out early that the symptoms matched a failed helium tank strut but didn't believe it at first because none of the struts they tested failed similarly, so they went on reviewing and ended up testing most of their strut inventory before they found a few (just two?) that were also dangerously weak. At no part of this did I hear anything about SpaceX believing that the probable cause was anything else, just that the initially-predicted cause seemed unlikely.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
  6. Re:The solution is simple... by jonwil · · Score: 1

    While they are there, they can steal the plans for the Russian RD-180 rocket motor so the US can build its own and not need to keep buying the things from Russia...

  7. Re: Good by Dunbal · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The United States has NEVER fought an enemy without air superiority. The only enemy that came close was Japan and only until the US started sinking their carriers in the Coral Sea. Germany had already lost the battle of Britain by the time the US came on the scene and the Luftwaffe was decimated and never recovered - especially after having to also deal with the Russian front after Barbarossa. While the US has more aircraft than Russia, the US also has a lot of front and a lot more bases to defend - from Japan to Lithuania. Plus American aircraft are extremely high tech, delicate creatures. Russian aircraft are built to be rugged and most of them can land on grass strips and other rough surfaces. Any American who over-estimates the potential of his armed forces against an enemy such as Russia and China (they have a mutual defense pact by the way so an aggressive America would not be fighting only one enemy) is in for a nasty, nasty shock.

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    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  8. Re:Won't matter anyway. by sycodon · · Score: 2, Informative

    Obama is paving the way

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    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
  9. Re:The solution is simple... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    You obviously do not understand the russians.
    there is no dirty mail that will make russians vote against Putin.
    What will make them do that, is if Putin tries to put back in place with totalitarian system, or if their economy continues to stay collapsed.
    It is this later that is very likely going to cause another person to replace him. Hopefully, the next time, they will modify their constitution to say no more than 2 terms. period.

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    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  10. Re:The solution is simple... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    we already have the full plans for the 180. And there is ZERO reason to do that.
    Actually we CAN produce this economically, but not against a nation that has their money in the crapper.
    Also, there is no reason to go further with it. BO and SpaceX will have far more powerful engines using methane shortly.

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    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  11. Re:Make Space Great Again by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    you mean the guy that said that we should take money from NASA and spend it on the roads and tax cuts? That guy?

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    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  12. Re:Shenzhou is never discussed by aristotle-dude · · Score: 1

    Thank god that you are not American. Zero chance of buying a CHinese capsule. And America needs to quit throwing their money away to Putin, let alone to China.

    Wow. Congrats on confirming the stereotypes of Americas. You guys lost the innovation race because of your arrogance and stupidity. You keep of voting in idiots who you think are "cool". Unfortunately, Canada has caught that disease. Justin makes Dan Quayle look like a Rhodes scholar. He has nice hair though.

    --
    Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
  13. Re:Shenzhou is never discussed by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    yeah, right.
    Just because I said that NASA is NOT going to spend money on buying from China?
    Obviously, you must work in NASA like I did and think that you know how NASA (or even China for that matter) operates.
    The fact that you think that Jesus was a social conservative means that you have not even read the bible, let alone had history.

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    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  14. Re:Won't matter anyway. by sycodon · · Score: 1

    Why be afraid pf posting facts?

    My Karma has been trashed before and it will be again.

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    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
  15. 2 years seems rather excessive by Solandri · · Score: 2

    2 years to build a new Soyuz capsule after it's ordered? It takes Boeing and Airbus about 80 days to build a 777 or A380.

    Even factoring in number of orders doesn't account for the difference. There are about 15 Soyuz launches per year. Airbus is delivering about 30 A380s per year. So that would only account for a factor of 2, putting expected build time for a Soyuz at 160 days, or less than half a year.

    1. Re:2 years seems rather excessive by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      2 years to build a new Soyuz capsule after it's ordered? It takes Boeing and Airbus about 80 days to build a 777 or A380.

      Apples and oranges - because the second example doesn't examine the time from order to delivery. So, while it sounds impressive to the uneducated and clueless, your examples are completely meaningless.

    2. Re:2 years seems rather excessive by speedplane · · Score: 3, Funny

      2 years to build a new Soyuz capsule after it's ordered? It takes Boeing and Airbus about 80 days to build a 777 or A380.

      Wow, 80 days to make a 777? It takes Toyota only 17 hours to make a car! Wow, 17 hours to make a car? It takes my corner deli three minutes to make a sandwhich!

      False comparisons anyone?

      --
      Fast Federal Court and I.T.C. updates
    3. Re:2 years seems rather excessive by nateman1352 · · Score: 1

      Remember this is Russia. Most of the USSR state owned industry was sold to former Communist party members and other politically well connected people for pennies on the dollar, including the Soyuz factories. It takes 2 years to build a Soyuz because they use the exact same industrial process to build them that they used 40 years ago under Communist rule. It's Govornment subsidized and NASA pays through the teeth for it anyway, so zero incentive to improve inventory management or process efficiency.

    4. Re:2 years seems rather excessive by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      IIRC the thing is the Russians operate two production lines in parallel to be able to keep the current Soyuz production output. If the US doesn't order more flights they'll just shutter one of the production lines. Oh and if you know anything about computer hardware, like CPU pipelining, you'll probably know that any pipeline (same model also applies to assembly lines) has startup latency and instruction latency. i.e. it may take a long time to restart production in a line until you get the first unit out, but then the following units come out a lot quicker. Try reading about CPU manufacturing for e.g. time to get first silicon after a tapeout. It takes months to get the first unit out.

    5. Re:2 years seems rather excessive by drsquare · · Score: 1

      Most Soyuz flights are unmanned, it takes a lot longer to prepare for a manned mission, especially when you have Russia's unmatched safety record.

  16. Re:Good by hey! · · Score: 1

    Projects like ISS aren't just one thing. You have many groups involved each with their agenda. One of those groups unquestionably is researchers. Would they rather have all the money spent on ISS go just to their research? Sure. But it's not going to happen. The PR value supports the research, just as it did with Apollo (but obviously on much, much smaller scale).

    Likewise a lot of people would rather see the money that went into ISS go toward a Mars mission; but that would (at the time of ISS's planning) make hardly a dent in what would have been needed. ISS is a critical bridge to future manned exploration (if any) of the solar system. It's an achievable short-term program which maintains and advances practical hands-on experience with human spaceflight and space habitats.

    This is how the real world works. You can't get everything you want, but you can get some of what you want by helping others get some of what they want.

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    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  17. Re:Good by khallow · · Score: 1

    Projects like ISS aren't just one thing. You have many groups involved each with their agenda. One of those groups unquestionably is researchers. [...] Likewise a lot of people would rather see the money that went into ISS go toward a Mars mission

    And a third group just looks at something like the ISS as a profit center. One of three groups got what they wanted.

    This is how the real world works.

  18. Re:Good by speedplane · · Score: 1

    ISS, like the Space Shuttle program before, is more of an ongoing PR promotion (and jobs program) than any kind of useful scientific mission. Either send humans to Mars or stick with unmanned missions.

    How would sending a handful of astronauts to Mars to live on life support for a few days be any less of a PR stunt than the ISS?

    --
    Fast Federal Court and I.T.C. updates
  19. Re: Good by whodunit · · Score: 1

    Durable. Durable. Yeah, when you build your interceptors out of nickel steel they're durable as bricks - and they've got similar flight kinematics, too! I hear your Syrian buddies are so impressed by that rugged brick-like durability that they've towed their entire MiG-25 fleet out into the desert around the T4 airbase and left 'em to rot. But hey, at least they're durable. A thousand years from now they'll dig those planes out of the sand and stand around to marvel at the brick-like creations of their primitive ancestors. Das Rodina's legend will live on, in a museum, and then you'll finally achieve your deserved ascendancy over the decedent West!

    Durable. Durable. I love you Vatniks so much. SO MUCH

  20. Re: Good by Dunbal · · Score: 1

    Confirming that the RuAF consists entirely of MiG 25's. Oh wait, they haven't been produced since the Soviet era.

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    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  21. Re: Won't matter anyway. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Oh, I agree. I am just sick and tired of the AC trolls here, of which most are on the right. I wish all ppl would simply use their login and perhaps be nice and friendly to others

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    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  22. Re: Make Space Great Again by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    http://gizmodo.com/the-2016-pr... Actually, I did not lie. And I see no reason to lie about any candidate, even though I'm a registered Libertarian.

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    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  23. Re:Shenzhou is never discussed by drsquare · · Score: 1

    How exactly has the US lost the innovation race?

  24. Re:Good by drsquare · · Score: 1

    You can't go to Mars until you solve the life support, it's a four year mission minimum with no easy resupply from Earth. To solve life support you need a space station.

  25. Re: Good by Kjella · · Score: 1

    I'd say China and Russia is a completely different beast than Russia alone. Compared to the Cold War they've lost a lot of allies and NATO has gained about as much. The battle lines won't start in East Germany, a united Germany will stand against them. And the Poles. And the Baltic States and most of Ukraine and former Yugoslavia. Putin can try funny business in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea since they're not NATO members but he really has no chance alone (or with their lackeys like Belarus) in an open war with NATO. Now China on the other hand has a massive number of soldiers and massive production industry that could be retooled for war. I guess the ace in the hole is the nukes, but if China develops a rocket shield then all bets are off.

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    Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  26. Re: Good by Dunbal · · Score: 1

    "We clowns"? I'm a Canadian living in Panama...

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    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  27. Re: Good by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

    https://warisboring.com/india-... :

    In the past decade, the Indian Air Force has bought hundreds of Su-30MKI fighter jets from Russia. ...
    But it turns out, the twin-engine jets have failure-prone motors. Their AL-31FP engines break down with alarming frequency. ...
    Parrikar attributed the failures to faulty bearings that contaminated the plane’s oil supply. It seems that metal fatigue led to tiny pieces of metal shearing off the friction-reducing bearings, which then entered the oil system. ...
    However, a more general worry for the Air Force is the poor serviceability of the Su-30MKI fleet—meaning the number of aircraft actually available for operations on a daily basis. ...
    Based on figures given by Parrikar, only 110 Su-30MKIs are “operationally available.” From a total of more than 200 aircraft that Irkut and HAL had delivered by February 2015, that means 56 percent are ready at any given time.

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n... :

    According to a report by the Beijing-based Sina Military Network, the Russian-built engine used in the J-10 is prone to malfunction, having caused multiple crashes in recent years. ...
    The Russian-built engine had lost power at over 11,000 feet, said pilot Li Tong, who ejected at 1,000 feet following an abortive 198-second attempt to glide the aircraft to a local airfield. ...
    According to Chinese naval publications cited by Sina, consultations with Russian providers to find a solution for the AL-31 compatibility issues have been delayed for want of funding.

    It's not like this isn't a widely reported problem... It isn't exclusive to the AL-31 series engine used in the Su-27 and derivatives either. The RD-33 engines used in the Mig-29 allegedly have such low lifetimes that most of them have been retired in the countries that actually did buy them. While Mig-21 from the 1960s are still flying...

  28. Re: Good by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

    http://www.defensenews.com/sto... :

    India ordered 45 MiG-29K aircraft and equipment worth $2.2 billion in two separate orders — in 2004 and 2010 — from Russia. It is the primary combat platform on Vikramaditya, which was acquired from Russia when it was known as the Admiral Gorshkov...
    On problems with the engine, the CAG report said: "Since induction in February 2010, 40 engines (62 percent) of twin-engined MiG-29K have been withdrawn from service/rejected due to design-related defects." ...
    Additionally, the serviceability of the warplanes was low, ranging from 21.30 percent to 47.14 percent, according to the report. ...
    Detailing the defects of the engine on MiG-29K, the report noted that "even as the RD-33 MK engine (mounted on MiG-29K) was considered an advancement over the engine of the MiG-29K, its reliability remains questionable."

  29. Re:Shenzhou is never discussed by tsotha · · Score: 1

    To Congress the space program is just another way of shoveling cash to critical districts. Buying from China would defeat the purpose.

  30. Re:Good by tsotha · · Score: 1

    That's kind of a joke. Russia is weaker than it's ever been in relation to the US.

  31. Re: Good by tsotha · · Score: 1

    At this point Russia is relying on its nuclear arsenal to maintain its independence, the same way Pakistan and North Korea do. It would have no hope in a conventional war against the US, particularly if the other NATO countries were involved.