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No One Is Buying Smartwatches Anymore (gizmodo.com)

An anonymous reader shares a Gizmodo report: Remember how smartwatches were supposed to be the next big thing? About that... The market intelligence firm IDC reported on Monday that smartwatch shipments are down 51.6 percent year-over-year for the third quarter of 2016. This is bad news for all smartwatch vendors (except maybe Garmin), but it's especially bad for Apple, which saw shipments drop 71.6 percent, according to the IDC report Apple is still the overall smartwatch market leader, with an estimated 41.3-percent of the market, but IDC estimates it shipped only 1.1 million Apple Watches in Q3 2016, compared with 3.9 million in 2015. To a degree, that's to be expected, since the new Apple Watch Series 2 came out at the tail-end of the quarter. But the news is still a blow, when you consider how huge the Apple Watch hype was just 18 months ago.

33 of 330 comments (clear)

  1. Because their pointless. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There are very few use-cases of these which make sense.

    Workout accessory? Hardly adds much.

    Wireless extension of phone display? Hardly much better than just looking at the damn phone..

    Oh - and especially - as a time piece? Size sucks, Durability sucks. Battery life sucks even more making them pointless for most cases where you want a watch (long trips, hiking, camping, etc.).

    Failed experiment by electronics makers selling jewellery. They fell into the classic trap of trying to create a market for something which doesn't actually do anything that anyone cares about.

  2. Was Obvious from the Start by rahvin112 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Anyone that knows anything about watches could have saw this coming. There is a potential here if they can get a watch that does what a watch does now with additional functionality but they've got to get something else right and that's battery life. Watches are JEWELRY first and time pieces second. Most people who don't care for the time keeping abilities don't even wear one anymore because cell phones have clocks now. Apple tried really hard to get the Jewelry side right but IMO failed miserably. This is a fit and finish game with high end precious metals comprising the composition, often with gemstones.

    None of the smartwatches satisfy the Jewelry aspect of time pieces. Taking that into consideration and the fact they have atrocious battery life, offer almost no convenience that their phone doesn't already provide and you've got a product that will sell a few as a status thing and rapidly implode as the main market avoids it. There is a future for these things but it's going to be a niche market until they solve the serious limitations in both functionality and battery life.

    1. Re:Was Obvious from the Start by zlives · · Score: 5, Insightful

      the other issue with watch as jewlery for all smart watches, in my mind, is the software. 10 years from now my Ulysse Nardin will still have value and 20 years it may even appreciate. 30 years from i will give it to my son. 2years from now the iwatch will be out of date and no longer supported.

    2. Re:Was Obvious from the Start by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2

      It doesn't help that a lot of the 'watches as jewelry' types are either looking for jewelry in a budget(in which case spending a large fraction of the purchase price on expensive and largely invisible electronics, rather than most of the money on the attractive case, is less than totally attractive); or looking for the 'timeless' and 'heritage' and so on that watch ads are always going on about.

      While technologically pointless, your zillion-jewel-fiddly-mechanical-movement is going to be just as nifty for at least decades, barring abuse. Anything 'smart' will be old news in 18 months, at most; and archaic within a few years. That isn't terribly compelling.

    3. Re:Was Obvious from the Start by rahvin112 · · Score: 2

      As another poster already pointed out that "zillion-jewel-fiddly-mechanical-movement" watch isn't just cool, it's likely appreciated in value. Those luxury watches are all very valuable decades down the line even though they are used.

      You aren't going to get that with an Apple or Android watch, it's going to be abandoned by the manufacturer in less than 5 years and the battery probably won't last 2 and most of them have batteries that are near impossible to replace, to the point where it's cheaper to buy a new one than replace the battery. In such a scenario why would anyone spend money on a watch that satisfies the Jewelry aspect if it's worthless in 2 years? The reality is, that other than early adopters you don't get those other purchasers and the market levels off and dies.

    4. Re:Was Obvious from the Start by myowntrueself · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yup. When the Apple watch came out, I took my Rolex purchased in the 70s to a jeweler for cleaning and refurbishment which cost 2x what an Apple watch would have cost. I gave it to my son as a graduation gift. The current value on that watch was 5x what I paid for it. Might be a wash with changes to the value of a dollar, but that item will still have value in 2-3 years when the Apple watch would have been dropped into a bin as junk. The HP-01 watch from the 70's was a better product than the Apple watch, by the way I also had an HP-01 back then. Kind of sorry I didn't keep it. I wonder if an Apple watch buyer will every feel the same way after 40 years?

      Also, when Apple decide they don't care about the Apple watch any more and shut down the servers that enable it to work, it could well stop functioning altogether; many pieces of modern tech are like this. If their servers are offline they just don't work any more. This isn't going to happen with your Rolex.

      --
      In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
    5. Re:Was Obvious from the Start by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 2

      I am not certain about two or five years from now, but I like having my Pebble Steel right now. It was only $99 and it's pretty nice. So far I have worn it about three months nearly 24/7 and the gorilla glass isn't scratched or marred at all. It needs to be charged about once a week and reminds me of that on the day when it wants to be charged 'this night.'

    6. Re:Was Obvious from the Start by vux984 · · Score: 2

      Chiming in to agree; BUT quality isn't the only factor here. You simply couldn't engineer a smartwatch that anyone would want to wear 40 years from now. Even if it worked good as new, it would still be a ridiculously obsolete piece of gear that needs to pair with a "phone" equally out of date and totally incompatible with the networks, and completely unable to render a 'webpage', and all of its client/server apps would be broken.

      Maybe steampunk types or some future equivalent "LED-punk" would wear one, with an oculus rift converted into a bike helmet... to conventions... but that's about it.

    7. Re:Was Obvious from the Start by nine-times · · Score: 3, Insightful

      the Apple Watch 2.0 only really offers waterproofing. no real advances that people would dump another $350+ to replace their 1 year old Apple Watch 1.0

      I think this really needs to be taken into account in the whole discussion. The big story is that Apple Watch sales are down from last year?

      You have to figure that a large percentage of people who wanted Apple Watches bought them last year, when they were first released. Most people don't usually replace their electronics after only a year. Even with cell phones, they wait 2 or 3 years, and that's about as frequent as it gets. Given that smart watches are mostly being used as watches and to display notifications from your cell phone, it seems possible that the smartwatch upgrade cycle will be less frequent.

      Also, the "Series 2" model is ultimately a minor upgrade. It has GPS in the watch, which may be important to some people. It's waterproof and the old one isn't officially waterproof, but was still more water resistant than advertised. It's not thinner or lighter, the battery doesn't last longer, and it doesn't even look different. Some people will want to upgrade after only one year, but I wouldn't expect most Series 1 owners to think it's worth buying a Series 2.

      Given that, I would assume that there'd be a big spike of sales when the Apple Watch was first released, followed by a few years of diminishing sales. I even had a theory (which so far has worked out) that Apple would avoid making a lot of small incremental changes every year. Given the novelty of the product, some people probably held off buying it the first year because they wanted to see if the following year's model would show substantial improvements. Now that we've seen only minor improvements for Series 2, that may have lead some of those people to go ahead and buy one, which may explain why their sales aren't even worse.

      My basic theory is that Apple has a cycle in mind for how often they'll release major updates with major design changes, and it's basically on the same time frame that their marketing experts tell them that people will be willing to buy a new smart watch. I don't know if that's 2 years or 4 years, but it's not going to be 1 year.

  3. Rampant consumerism and e-waste by aristotle-dude · · Score: 2

    Why should we have to upgrade our watches every year? Maybe people are happy with what they have already?

    --
    Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
  4. Who needs them anyway by Keruo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I stopped wearing a wristwatch 10+ years ago. It was annoying to wear while using a laptop.
    There's clock on my phone, computer, car, radio, egg timer.. I don't see the point in carrying extra one on my wrist.
    Smartwatches seem even more pointless to me, redundant and limited functionality and horrible battery life.

    --
    There are no atheists when recovering from tape backup.
  5. Told ya by dissy · · Score: 2

    Remember how smartwatches were supposed to be the next big thing?

    Nope.
    But do you remember how we told you they were just an early adapter fad, and would remain so until a killer app came along, or at least some more useful functionality than as shipped?

    About that...

    Yeah...

    The market intelligence firm IDC reported on Monday that smartwatch shipments are down 51.6 percent year-over-year for the third quarter of 2016. This is bad news for all smartwatch vendors

    Well as we all mentioned back then, perhaps the vendors should now be working on coming up with new features and functionality so the watches would be even more useful, and perhaps spend a bit more effort searching out for those killer apps that still don't seem to exist.

    Then they can make those available to the current early adapters that already bought the things, so when asked "How do you like the watch?" they could rant and rave about the awesome things they are doing with it, instead of just replying "meh"

    That just might spur more people to buy the things.

  6. Article is 95% herp Derp by Lumpy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Nobody is UPGRADING their smartwatches because why the hell should I pay $350 to get a watch that has zero features above what I already have? When I had a Pebble Time it did everything I wanted then and the other pebble offerings were useless iterations that either offered a useless feature (lighter and shorter battery).

    the Apple Watch 2.0 only really offers waterproofing. no real advances that people would dump another $350+ to replace their 1 year old Apple Watch 1.0

    The android watches, well nobody has been buying them, they have always been the last place runners, but their new iterations are all useless. Zero advantages on the new versions.

    The ONLY smartwatch maker not with their head up their ass is Pebble. 10 day battery life in the Pebble Time Steel. Apple could have doubled the battery life, Samsung could have doubled battery life.... nope, they are all stuck in the "ZOMG THINNER!" stupidity.

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    1. Re:Article is 95% herp Derp by dbialac · · Score: 3, Informative

      > Nobody is UPGRADING their smartwatches

      You're acting as though this is an item that everyone has. It isn't. It's an item where most people took one look at it and said, "meh". Meanwhile in that same time period, I bought a conventional automatic watch because you never have to wind it and you never have to change the battery. It always works, it's (old) alternative energy and for me that makes it cool. One of the thing we often forget in technology is that sometimes our ancestors already solved the energy problems we're facing today, simply because they didn't have any.

  7. Dick Tracy is rolling over in his grave by jfdavis668 · · Score: 2

    In the past that mostly had to do with Madonna, but now he is upset no one uses two way video watches.

  8. So much hate by Ghazgkull · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I didn't want one either. So much so that when my wife surprised me with an Apple watch for Christmas last year, I could hardly hide my disappointment. Thinking "I really didn't *want* one of these"...

    But having used a smart watch for a while now, I absolutely love it. Why?

    1. The haptic feedback. I run my phone on silent 24/7, which meant that I was constantly having to double-check that I didn't miss a message while walking around. There's no missing or mistaking the prominent tap from the watch so this problem is solved. No more missed messages and no more randomly checking my phone.
    2. The weather. I wouldn't have predicted this one, but having the current weather conditions plus the day's high/low temps on the watch face is super useful. I probably look at my watch for the weather conditions almost as often as I look at it for the time.
    3. The general freedom of not needing my phone in my hand. In lots of small ways throughout the day, a well-functioning smart watch is another one of those "living in the future" joys. Sending messages by voice without even pulling out your phone, pausing/resuming podcasts while mowing the lawn, getting haptic navigation directions while having an uninterrupted conversation... a good smart watch is clearly a step forward.

    As a former skeptic turned believer, it's a shame to see so many people dumping on these devices without having the chance to really see what they offer.

    1. Re:So much hate by bennebw · · Score: 2

      I waited until Apple Series 2 and bought my first one. I love it. I use it for 2 things all the time that take away just a enough annoyance that it makes me smile every time I use it.

      It's not a must have item by any stretch, but like keyless entry on your car, if you make enough money to spoil yourself occasionally, it has its place. My 2 things: 1) Text messages...reply by voice is excellent and accurate for me; 2) Calendar...it's on my home screen and shows my next appointment...love it. Beyond that, I the Activity (fitness) app, Phone call feature (daily), and driving directions (weekly).

      Right now, the smartwatch is the least intrusive device for extending human capability that you can get. Google glass was probably ahead of its time and may one day become the de facto interface between humans and assistive tech. Phones are great, but not hands free. To go hands free, I can only think of 5 options:
      1) glasses,
      2) something you wear (watch, Star Trek communicator, etc)
      3) some kind of ear piece
      4) some kind of AMZN Echo device that can fly around behind me all day, or
      5) A chip in your head

      Right now, the watch is winning, but is clearly not the end-all be-all. While VR is all the rage right now, and will have some killer applications, it's not something you can wear around all day. Like Tim Cook, I believe AR will be a bigger benefit to more people. It's the next evolution of the smartphone. It's going to be harder than VR to perfect, but when it is perfected, it will be that thing you turn around and go back home to get if you forgot it.

  9. Bad data, poor credibility by plsuh · · Score: 3, Informative

    Folks, all of this is from numbers pulled out of some IDC analyst's rear end. Their estimates are no better than SWAG's. I should know, I've had to use their reports in a past life. Sometimes they're accurate, as companies will report otherwise confidential numbers so long as they can't be backed out of the reports. However, Apple doesn't play those games and in this case it's explicitly some analyst's best guess. Most analysts badly misunderstand Apple, and when you misunderstand the biggest player in the market your analysis is almost certain to be wrong.

    Also, Garmin's growth was from a very low base. It's easy to grow by 300+% if you start from almost zero.

  10. Re:Oh thank goodness by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

    You know how people love selfies? Yeah. VR is going to be a fad until it's completely physically immersive and you can really feel the NPC blow you, but personal drones and tiny video cameras are here to stay — often in one package.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  11. Technology isn't advanced enough yet by Dan+East · · Score: 5, Interesting

    We still don't have the display technology to make a proper smartwatch. Until we have a watch with a display that is continuously on and active (such as a full-color e-ink display that's at least 30 FPS) that can operate for a minimum of 24 hours continuously on one charge, smart watches are going to be a severe compromise from existing watches (digital or analog). Only those that have use cases that really require them, or that want to bend over backwards to integrate them into their lives, will find them useful enough to bother with.

    Look at digital watches. The first generation were LED with red glowing numbers, and they only displayed the time when you pushed a button, otherwise the battery would be dead within an hour. Does that sound familiar? Digital watches did not explode onto the scene until LCD displays matured, which were capable of actively displaying real-time data continuously for months on a single battery. That will be the technology that drives smartwatches - whatever display advancements need to take place to allow continuous full-color, real-time data display with a battery life measured in days. Until then, companies like Apple are putting the cart before the horse and using gimmicks like gestures and the like to try and switch the display on intermittently (and hopefully) when the user is needing to see it.

    --
    Better known as 318230.
  12. Cant give them away by ghoul · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I knew the Apple Watch was not going to work out when Apple offered a 50% discount to their employees and my friend who works at Apple offered me to use his discount to get one. If Apple employees are not willing to buy it at 50% why would the public buy it at full price?

    --
    **Life is too short to be serious**
  13. Watches are worn as bling by presidenteloco · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Most people have figured out that they carry their phone all the time so the watch is useless.

    Some people think that a big platinum or gold looking one or diamond encrusted one still makes them look successful or alpha, whereas it really just makes them look quaint, narcissistic, and backward.

    If you're really important, you have a person to tell you the time without you even having to ask.

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
    1. Re:Watches are worn as bling by DrXym · · Score: 4, Insightful
      I wear a watch because I like to be able to tell the time without whipping out a phone for the same purpose. Especially if I'm driving, in a meeting, running or whatever. I can also time myself, set an alarm and a few other things. The screen is always on, it has a nice big display, it's waterproof, the battery has lasted 18 months and I expect I'll get at least another 6-12 months more out of it and it cost me the grand sum of €20.

      Watches aren't just for bling, they're there to tell the time. A watch that needs to charge constantly, or needs to be pushed / shaken to show the time, or is hard to read in sunlight is a pain in the ass. That's why "smart" watches fail. They compromise the most basic function that they are supposed to perform. Instead we get shit like wrist cameras, half assed phone sync functionality, heart rate monitors etc. If someone produces a smart watch that tells the time with an always-on display, that works in and out of doors, that lasts weeks or months between charges then we might be getting somewhere. The other stuff is merely a bonus at that point.

    2. Re:Watches are worn as bling by fbobraga · · Score: 2

      I like to be able to tell the time without whipping out a phone for the same purpose.

      A normal watch, that you don't need to recharge so often, is not much more useful in your case?

    3. Re:Watches are worn as bling by hey! · · Score: 3, Informative

      Watch collector/restorer here.

      I don't like the huge, fat watch thing either. Nor am I a fan of subdials and other complications for daily wear. And here's the thing: for the most part ostentatiously big, fat, complicated watches are a low-end phenomenon. As you go higher hundreds and then into thousands of dollars, visual complexity shrinks until you are looking at something like a Rolex Milgauss for about $5000. The Migauss is somewhat fatter than I'd prefer because it's very robust -- it's designed for every day use. For dress use, if cost were no object, I'd wear something like a Vacheron Constantin Patrimony, which is 2.6 mm thick and 20.6 mm across. It's small, but the clean design means it doesn't have to be big. For that reason I wouldn't spend the additional $10,000 for the date complication.

      Smartphones haven't eliminated the usefulness of wristwatches; they've just eliminated the usefulness of all the gee-gaws on watches for purposes other than telling time. You don't need the day/date complication, and you don't need the stopwatch or countdown timer, that stuff just makes a watch complicated to operate and hard to read. All you need is the hour, minute and second hand. I also make extensive use of a rotating dive-watch bezel for timing things like runs. When I rebuild watches I sometimes replace the face to cover up the day/date complication because it just clutters the design.

      That's the problem with watches: it's hard to find a thoughtfully-designed, stripped down watch for under $500. But you can find them. One of my favorite cheap watches is a Casio that costs only $15 on Amazon -- I think of it as a disposable watch. It is very, very cheap in every respect, but it tells time as well as a $5000 Rolex and has similarly clean design. The only changes I'd make would be to improve the lume and remove the day/date complication.

      Anyhow, if you showed up wearing a Patrimony I'd be impressed -- not because you spent $12,000 on a watch, but that you'd spent $12,000 on a watch whose value only a serious connoisseur would recognize. If you want to impress the ignorant, go big. If you want to impress the sophisticated, go simple.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    4. Re: Watches are worn as bling by hey! · · Score: 2

      I like Skagen, and they're a rare example of clean design at an affordable price. I especially like an Ancher model -- the arabic version with leather band for general wear and the baton dial for dress. The Holst with day/date dials combines two things I don't usually like (subdials and day/date complications) but does it in a way that I actually like quite a bit. For me it's not the existence of the complication per se, but the readability of the watch. Unfortunately the Holst is a bit on the thick side, but you can't have everything. Shave 3 mm off the thickness and you'd be looking at a $1000 watch.

      There are few odd missteps in the lineup. Their rectangular dress watches have batons in a circular pattern, which is a bit... unusual. They also have a watch that has a month calculation. It's done nicely, but it's an utterly ridiculous feature.

      Overall Skagen designs remind me of Baum et Mercier at about 20% of the price, and just little bit more Scandanavian if you know what I mean.

      Danish Design watches seem pretty similar; I wouldn't be surprised in they came out of the same company. They almost certainly use the same movements. Ironically the faces seem less Scandinavian to me but what do I know? One of their designs reminds of the famous Swiss railway clocks.

      I don't have watches from either of these companies because I focus on vintage pre-80s watches.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  14. Re:People probably realized.. by Pseudonym · · Score: 5, Funny

    they already have a phone...or a watch.

    And smart wristwatches have no hipster cred value. Smart pocketwatches... now you're talking.

    --
    sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f(q{sub f{($f)=@_;print"$f(q{$f});";}f});
  15. Re:Because you look dumb wearing it by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 5, Funny

    We here at Slashdot are the nerds you picked on in High School.

    Shouldn't you be on 4Chan or somewhere like that?

  16. People aren't buying Apple smartwatches by aklinux · · Score: 2

    The market for everything else looks pretty healthy.

    I think Apple just has itself priced out of that particular market,

  17. Re:People probably realized.. by Locke2005 · · Score: 2

    Yeah, those "watch pockets" they've been putting in trousers for like 100 years? Clothing manufacturers have started calling them "phone pockets" now. Weird how things go in circles. "Imagine, a timepiece attached to your wrist, so you don't have to pull it out of your pocket to glance at it!" Watch sales are way down too, which makes digital watches a lot more expensive, as they have to amortize the fixed costs over far fewer units.

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  18. I'd want one... by antdude · · Score: 2

    ... but their battery lives suck, require mobile phones, etc. I will stick with the old school Casio Data Bank watches.

    --
    Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
  19. Re:People probably realized.. by Sique · · Score: 4, Informative

    The original target market for wrist watches were pilots and racing drivers who couldn't afford to get the hands off the steering to pull out a watch and look at the time. That's why expensive watches still have names like "sky master" or "pilote". I stopped wearing a watch about 15 years ago when I was on-call and had to carry a cell phone with me all the time.

    --
    .sig: Sique *sigh*
  20. Doomed from the start by Lisandro · · Score: 2

    The main problem that killed (is killing?) smartwatches is not only the limited use scenarios for them - is that battery times sucks. 24-48hs is already miserable for a phone, let alone a device you are supposed to attach to your wrist. My watch is a Citizen EcoDrive: rugged, accurate and never ever needs recharging.

    I have several acquaintances who stopped using their iWatches or 360s just because it is annoying to put it to charge every night next to their phones. Been thinking about buying a 360 from one of them because there're some interesting apps for pilots out there but, in the end, its more a novelty than anything else.