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Will The Death of the PC Bring 'An End To Openness'? (infoworld.com)

Slashdot reader snydeq shared "11 Predictions For the Future of Programming" by InfoWorld's contributing editor -- and one prediction was particularly dire: The passing of the PC isn't only the slow death of a particular form factor. It;s the dying of a particularly open and welcoming marketplace... Consoles are tightly locked down. No one gets into that marketplace without an investment of capital. The app stores are a bit more open, but they're still walled gardens that limit what we can do. Sure, they are still open to programmers who jump through the right hoops but anyone who makes a false move can be tossed...

For now, most of the people reading this probably have a decent desktop that can compile and run code, but that's slowly changing. Fewer people have the opportunity to write code and share it. For all of the talk about the need to teach the next generation to program, there are fewer practical vectors for open code to be distributed.

18 of 501 comments (clear)

  1. False premise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The PC isn't dying. Not at all. Despite tablets and mobile devices, there's a lot of work that can't easily be done on them. There are lots of jobs that still require or are much easier when done on a PC. This question is built upon a premise that is false. As long as there's work that requires a PC, and there will be for the foreseeable future, the PC sure isn't going to die.

    1. Re:False premise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'm a Graphic designer. Work is only increasing, who do you think makes all the GFX for the console's/tablet's? a tablet just isn't powerful enough yet to design on, nor give up the screen real estate of a pc ( I work with x3 50inch screens) I work in an office with other's who code, I dont see them switching either, never see a console you can code on or a tablet suitable.

      Maybe one day the consumer base will switch but those of us use that build for a living Pc's wont be going away anytime soon.

    2. Re: False premise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Well maybe for your candy crush saga simulation. Try stuffing 10+ GB of data and 64 GB+ ram to run a two week simulation under windows 10 home and get back to me how that went.

      PC is just going back to being a workstation, and tablets are the new calculators.

    3. Re: False premise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Laptops ARE PCs...

    4. Re:False premise by 0100010001010011 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The reason they're seeing a decline in sales is PC has plateaued performance wise. 3-4 old generation Intel chips are still competitive. I'll *never* realize the energy savings with how much I use my desktop. My laptop has a 3940XM that is still very competitive speed wise and is 4 years old.

      In the same amount of time I've upgraded my GPU on my desktop 3 times because of advances in CUDA.

    5. Re: False premise by tepples · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Fully update Windows 10 before the start of the simulation and then disconnect it from the Internet during execution, or build in checkpointing to disk. Both should avoid data loss due to forced restarts after kernel security updates.

    6. Re: False premise by Lumpy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      or do what us professionals do. Refuse to use windows 10. Hell most of the engineering computers are still running 7 because it is massively more stable than 10.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    7. Re: False premise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Oh yeah the COBOL guys that still have high paying jobs after your hip new language jobs are out sourced.

    8. Re: False premise by slazzy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Switch to Linux.

      --
      Website Just Down For Me? Find out
    9. Re: False premise by amiga3D · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If you have to type more than a few sentences a tablet gets very tedious. The screen is less of a limitation. We're talking stuff that most laptops are used for which is mobile computing tasks such as social media and e-mail or general web surfing. Trying to do actual work is of course very annoying on a tablet.

    10. Re: False premise by dgatwood · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Computing as a service is taking over. Why do your processing on a slow machine when you can have access to a remote rendering farm. This is the future.

      Call me when I can push those 70 megabyte image files to the cloud for processing quickly enough and pull the resulting full-screen rendering quickly enough (without any compression artifacts) for that extra CPU speed in the cloud to beat the performance of local processing. Basically, the round-trip speed would need to be double-digit milliseconds, so on the order of 100 gigabit speeds... wirelessly... and full duplex.

      At the current rate of progress, my great grandkids will be on Social Security before the cloud can replace local CPU horsepower, and I don't even have kids yet. The cloud might be the future, but from my perspective, it is the very, very distant future except in the context of software with very limited resource needs.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  2. User convenience is what is being asked for by sanf780 · · Score: 3, Insightful
    The thing is, most people ask for convenience. A PC is a very sofisticated tool, and nobody is RTFM anymore. Desktops and laptops are prone to get infected with viruses, and OS and software updates are seen as cumbersome to most people. The fact that just installing Adobe Flash might lead to ransomware being installed because of one shitty advertisiment network tells you a lot. The public thinks that tablets and mobiles are less prone to viruses, and for some walled garden it might be more true than on the other.

    And by the way, the article is wrong. The first PCs were not easy to code for. Sure, MSDOS 3.3 did include gwbasic, but for anything complex you had to license compiler software from somebody else. TurboC and the like were not free, you know. Or you could always code in assembly.

    'Member GWbasic? 'Member shareware? 'Member BBS? I 'member. (South Park reference)

  3. No and no by wjcofkc · · Score: 4, Insightful
    First, enterprise and industry are wholly dependent on Open Source. This kind of snuck up over time, and with big corporation supporting the Open Source software they need. So if all the programmers go because we can't teach elementary kids to "code" because they have no "real computer" to "code" on. First off, the desktop and laptop class computers *will* still be there. Second, the kids still won't learn programming in a classroom led by a teacher with no programming experience and who is regurgitating material from a book and doesn't have the foggiest notion of how to handle something that goes wrong.

    Open Source is not taught, it is encountered and embraced. Open Source programming is community. Those people who have oh so specialized cognitive abilities will naturally gravitate into the Open Source world. Not everyone belongs there and the idea of introducing this into curriculum is a waste of time when they should be learning something else. Of the Open Source programmers I know and have otherwise met, not a single one of them were taught about it in school. However, many got started in programming at a pre-teen age.

    You can cite figures of slumping PC sales for sure. But what about the balancing figure that shows people aren't buying new desktops because the one they bought five-years ago is still blazing fast. Right now I am writing this on a Windows 10 tablet. It's a great device but the quad-core Cherry Trail and four gigs of ram are nothing to write home about... oh, a Bluetooth keyboard and I can code away on this tablet. Next room over I have the desktop I built when I need serious horsepower for something or need my nerd fix. It is 6-core AMD machine with 16 gigs of ram, a 120 gigabyte SSD and, integrated video. That is straight of 2011 and I call that my fast machine.

    I could get back into carrying on about Open Source, but this statement:

    Fewer people have the opportunity to write code and share it.

    Reveals the depth to which you have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about. There are plenty of people around here who might take the time to write a small book about it for you, but I am not one of them.

    --
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  4. Re:Raspberry Pi by HuskyDog · · Score: 4, Insightful

    OK, my comment was too short for many people to grasp the point, for which I apologise (my wife had just yelled "Lunch!").

    I was trying to suggest that as big manufacturers attempt to lock down their platforms, there will be an increasing need for those interested in software openness to create their own platforms which don't have this problem. When I wrote "like the Raspberry Pi" I didn't necessarily mean like it in power (although my Pi3 is capable of a lot of useful stuff) but like it in being produced by a manufacturer with a strong interest in it being readily programmable.

  5. I suspect numbers are stable by Dixie_Flatline · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I can't really back this up with any data, but it's my speculation that all the people that NEED PCs are still getting them. What we're seeing in the area is that people that never actually needed everything a normal PC offers have migrated to phones and tablets. If you're just doing email and Facebook, a desktop machine is overkill, but there was no other choice for a long time.

    There will always be programmers working on these sorts of "open" machines. We need them for academic and industry work and there's not any way that's going to change. Apple itself will always be a maker or a purchaser of those sorts of machines themselvesâ"OSes can't be made on heavily restricted machines.

  6. Re: Why can't there be an open phone? by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The Internet is killing itself off quite nicely - it used to be Sturgeon's Law - 90% of everything is sh*t. Well, now it's rotting at ludicrous speed - and will soon go to plaid. After which, we'll have to come up with something that works more along the lines of local neighborhoods only, by invite only. You know, create real communities of users instead of this advertising-driven shite.

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  7. Utter utter utter utter utter utter utter shit by Hognoxious · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Fewer people have the opportunity to write code and share it. For all of the talk about the need to teach the next generation to program, there are fewer practical vectors for open code to be distributed.

    Sure, modern machines don't boot up into BASIC (though I have two that start up in bash). But there's eclipse, Code::blocks, various QT things, and if you hold your nose even community editions of Visual Poodio that you can get with a few clicks for exactly zero of Her Germanic Majesty's finest pounds.

    I want to know what this person is smoking, so I can go get some.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  8. Future of various form factors by unixisc · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I have all the toys in question - 2 laptops, 2 tablets and 3 cellphones. Here is how each of them is used:

    1. This laptop I'm working on (w/ TrueOS) is where I do the bulk of my stuff - my shopping, banking, slashdot and a few other sites I participate in

    2. My Wintel laptop, which is what I use for work, as well as anything where I need something that's only available on Windows

    3. My iPad, which I use to listen to Sirius XM when I am at home and not driving, as well as some games

    4. My Ellipsis, which I use to check stuff in my various accounts. While I use the laptop to do things like money transfers and stuff, I use the tablet to make payments, or check the status of a transaction. I also use it when I'm travelling - to carry my e-ticket and so on

    5. My iPhone, which I use to FaceTime and WhatsApp w/ family members, and also play games while I'm waiting for something at a restaurant, or in a clinic, or at the movies

    6. My Moto X, which I use as a work phone, and separate from my personal phone. If any employer were to ask for a BYOD, that would be it

    7. My Lumia, which I use as a travel phone whenever I'm out of the US and in exclusively GSM territory

    Of the things I listed above, granted - a lot of them can be consolidated to 2 or 3 devices. But while I have a wireless keyboard for my iOS and Android tablets, I've found that a lot less convenient than a laptop. OTOH, I can't use my laptop if I need to call Lyft for any reason, like if my car is in service.

    The reason everybody has sold production to China is that previously, everything was merely outsourced to the likes of Gigabyte, Asustech, Acer, Compal, Quanta, et al, and slowly, everybody realized that they were only paying extra for the brand, but otherwise getting the same shit from an HP or a Dell. Which is why it makes more sense to buy from a Lenovo or an Acer. But end result is that the only thing the IBMs or Dells are now making are the high end boxes. As far as Apple goes, it does make more sense for them to switch to A10s and beyond for their laptops: OS X is already iOS-ized, and that would also save them from Hackintosh undercutting their Mac sales, to the extent it happens at all. There ain't a strong reason for Apple to base its computing infrastructure on x64. Even for Mac Pro, Apple can introduce multiple A8 cores or something to match the throughput, since the underlying OS is perfectly SMP capable