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'The Second Gilded Age Is Upon Us' (theguardian.com)

Robotron23 writes: Wealth inequality is at its highest since the turn of the 20th century -- the so-called 'Gilded Age' -- as the proportion of capital held by the world's 1,542 dollar billionaires swells further. The report, commissioned by the Swiss banking giant UBS and UK accounting company PwC, discusses the impacts of technology and globalization on the situation, and arrives weeks after the IMF recommended that the world's richest pay higher taxes to ease the disparity of wealth.

16 of 509 comments (clear)

  1. Guillotine time. by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ENOUGH. Time to roll out the goddamn guillotines. They will never release control with out a fight. This economy has and culture have taken so much from all of us. If it comes down to blood in the streets so be it. My life sucks already. Knuckle up Daddy Warbucks - it's clobberin' time.

    1. Re:Guillotine time. by FunkSoulBrother · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Everyone is involved in job creation. If I steal a car tonight I'm contributing towards a lot of jobs in a lot of diferent industries -- criminal justice, law, insurance, auto repair/manufacture.

      It's a pointless phrase invented to make the ulta-rich feel better about themselves.

    2. Re:Guillotine time. by swillden · · Score: 4, Interesting

      They will never release control with out a fight.

      What do you base that on?

      The comparison with the Gilded Age is apt, I think. The Gilded Age was the culmination of the weath concentration effect of the Industrial Revolution. Large changes in technology create massive increases in productivity, and when that happens most of the benefit accrues to those in the best position to grab it, which is the founders of the companies enabled by the new technologies and the existing owners of capital. This is what we saw in the 19th century and into the early 20th, and it's what we're seeing in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

      But, guillotines weren't needed to end the Gilded Age, and I see no reason why you think they're necessary to end the new gilded age. Market forces have done the job in the the past and (with two caveats, which I'll get into below), I see no reason to think they won't do so again.

      What happens is that as the new technologies and new production methods get established, they become commoditized. When that happens, consolidation reverses and competition builds. Competition among equals drives tight profit margins and pushes wages up, since the competitors are using similar processes and workers have portable skills that can move between them (individual bargaining). In addition, as job roles become more well-defined, collective bargaining makes more and more sense.

      The two caveats are both ways in which this time may truly be different. The first is the way that automation, especially strong AI, when it is finally achieved, has the potential to eliminate not just some jobs, but nearly all of them. In theory, there's nothing that humans can do that robots cannot except, perhaps, be human. So it's possible in the most extreme outcome (well, the *most* extreme outcome involves the robots getting rid of the humans, but we'll ignore that one) the only jobs left are service jobs, because people like to be served by people. Less extreme outcomes could still see us in a post-scarcity world where very few people are needed to work.

      IMO, the effects of that caveat do not require guillotines. It will become obvious that there is both a huge surplus of labor and a surplus of production, and the answer will be to tax the owners of the automated production systems to fund a generous basic income -- and then figure out how human society adapts to a life of nearly 100% leisure. As long as the voters are in control that's what will happen. And voters are in control. All of the lobbying in the world is useless in the face of sufficiently-focused voters, and massive unemployment and underemployment will motivate the voters.

      The other caveat is that several of the new Internet Age wealth concentration machines (including the one that pays my bills) seem to benefit enormously from network effects. For example, it's very difficult for multiple players to compete in the social media space, because everyone wants to be where all of their friends are. We have some fragmentation in that space, but it's fragmentation more than competition, because the "competitors" are all occupying different niches. There's some room for competition in search engines, ad networks, mobile operating systems, etc., but there's also a strong tendency towards consolidation that I don't think we've seen before. Online retail seems powerfully biased towards a single competitor model.

      My opinion is that this second caveat also does not require guillotines. I think there are enough different areas, and I think enough consumers are sufficiently uncomfortable with doing everything with one company that enough diversity will be driven, and enough competition will exist. If necessary, we may need to enact legislation to impose some limits that consumers don't impose through market means. Time will tell.

      Bottom line; I see no compelling reason to believe that this time is different in any way that requires violence.

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    3. Re:Guillotine time. by Kjella · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The uber-rich really are selfish and shortsighted. Selfish I understand, but the shortsightedness is ridiculous. No matter how nice the masses have it (and at least where I live, you have to be pretty poor before you're not 'rich' in a global or historical context), when a relatively small number of people have so much wealth they can buy and sell the rest of us without a care in the world... the masses will eventually revolt.

      Sorry, but I don't think history supports that claim. The peasants didn't revolt because their lords and kings were rich and powerful, almost every revolt came when there was a crisis that drove the lowest in society to desperation. The French revolution? Oppression + food shortage. The Russian revolution? Tired of war + food shortage. Even the fall of the Soviet Union was mostly because the stores were empty and the rubles almost worthless. That Roman that coined the term "bread and circus" was mostly spot on, as long as you got food stamps and TV most people are placated.

      Take a look at all the people who quite willingly vote for a "strong leader" because they don't really care about freedom or civil rights, they want a strong economy and order. As long as they can make some money (bread) and spend that money (circus) without too much interference they're happy to be a cog in the machinery. Take a look at China, I know everybody here wants to remind about Tiananmen Square but it's 25+ years ago and in a booming economy the masses just aren't remotely unhappy enough to support a revolution. Venezuela, maybe. But it's increasingly rare.

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    4. Re:Guillotine time. by werepants · · Score: 3, Interesting

      France was a fairly dominant force in science prior to the revolution. However, the revolutionaries disbanded the Royal Academy of Sciences, executed at least 6 scientists, indirectly caused the death of another 4, and general created an anti-intellectual atmosphere that praised lofty-minded but vapid philosophers and shunned empiricism.

      Look at pre-revolution science - the scene is dominated by French names, Ampere, Legendre, Laplace, Lagrange, Fourier, Poisson, Lamarcke. The French revolution was decidedly authoritarian, militaristic, nationalistic, and fairly indiscriminate in its violence. If, instead, France had followed a more peaceful trajectory and rebelled against the government by instituting a more just replacement, many, many lives would have been saved, their intellectual dominance might have been preserved, and France might be a much more powerful nation today.

      I fully believe that inequality is a problem, and it needs to be addressed, but many solutions are worse than the original problem. Guillotines and lynchings don't have to be part of the equation, and all historical evidence suggests that peaceful revolutions are far more likely to result in actual improvement.

  2. Trump and the riots are symptoms by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Trump and his proclamation that he's for the working person and the riots - whatever they are: Atnifa, BLM or whatever are just symptoms of the social unrest that occurs when inequality gets too large.

    That's all. The platitudes of "work harder", "take risks" or "don't major in Russian Medieval Literature" does shit for for the poor bastard who majored in Computer Science at State and the best he sees at the job fairs is jobs that require you to ask, "Have you tried turning it off and then on?"

    When folks who are doing well are cast off because their company - like IBM - decides it's best to go overseas. And then they are competing with thousands of their co-workers.

    Or when Mark Zuckerburg says that folks over 30 "don't get it" and have nothing but twenty somethings on his workforce.

    Or when you go into an interview and asked about "where do you see yourself in five years?" and you're thinking, "hopefully NOT looking for another job because this one was offshored!"

    And you get the job because you answered some gibberish that the interviewer liked (and you read on an airline magazine) and then lose your job in 15 months because the company offshored.

    And then you actually get feedback about your resume and are told, "You look like a job hopper. What's your problem?!"

    What?! In the 90s (my problem right there), working for more than 2 yeas meant that you're not willing to learn new things. You're a stick in the mud.

    Now, the fad goes, you're a "job hopper".

    Tech is too fickle. Employers are like irrational school girls who can't figure out who to be boy friends with in the Summer.

  3. Modern wealth is an illusion by WrongMonkey · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Just because there are numbers in a computer doesn't mean that those numbers translate into material wealth. Remember Elizabeth Holmes? Her net worth went from $4 billion to zero in a blink of an eye. Was her wealth ever real in a material sense? Are any of those net worth numbers actually real?

  4. still shrinks middle class by liquid_schwartz · · Score: 1, Interesting
    My observation is that wealth transfers are focused on the poor while the middle class gets little relief thus the gap between middle class and poor shrinks. Already in many states it makes more sense to be on welfare than work (citation below). Between the subsidized health care, no-copay medical, free phones, free food, and other perks the poor may on paper make less than the middle class yet really do as well or better. Meanwhile the 1% soar ever higher because once you have all the money you need the balance goes into more money making investments. When the (former) middle class revolts this will not end well.

    https://www.cheatsheet.com/cul...

  5. Wealth vs. Income by Darlok · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The problem that so many of these initiatives have, when it comes down to IMPLEMENTATION, is that governments have a major problem with "wealth" as distinct from "income". Because wealth can be hidden, obfuscated and invested in so many ways, most give up trying to tax it by traditional means. So they focus on Income.

    And there's a HUGE problem there, because income != wealth. At least, again, the way most governments choose to define "income".

    I'm a small business owner, and when I get my K-1 every year, it never ceases to amaze me about the spread between how much money I'm being taxed on, versus how much money I took home. Technically, if I were to somehow, magically, close up the company without any spin-down expenses or other costs, I could capture that money and be "rich". But, in reality, the amount of money sitting in the company for expenses, payroll, etc... that is "mine", but I will never see, touch or capitalize on, is significant. So every time you talk about taxing the "rich", you're taxing guys like me who run mid-sized businesses, and are personally allocated a share of the company's earnings, THAT WE HAVE NEVER TAKEN HOME, AND NEVER WILL.

    Tax policy is a steaming pile of dung. I'm all for taxing the truly rich... likely because I pay more taxes than most of them already!! But you need to be very careful about how to define "rich", because more often than not, these "tax 'em all and let god sort 'em out later" plans end up netting and hurting small- and mid-sized business owners more than it does the truly-Wealthy.

    My $0.02...

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  6. One man's handouts by rsilvergun · · Score: 4, Interesting

    is another man's justice. Most wealth comes from two sources: Natural resources and scientific discoveries. The ruling elite claim both simply by virtue of being present when they were first discovered. When our managers do this to us we get pissed off. Not sure why it's OK when rich elites do it.

    Besides, study after study shows that unless you're willing to do some really nasty shit (death squads and the like) then taking care of your working class saves more money. Crime rates drop when people have heath care. Productivity goes up when folks aren't living paycheck to paycheck. And it takes desperation to put a man like Mao or Stalin in power, so it even stabilizes your politics and prevents out of control government oppression.

    Of course, if you're actually OK with all that oppression so long as it doesn't happen to you and yours then that's another matter all together. What was that old line? "Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law". But you'd never actually come out and admit that, would you?

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  7. Re:Inequality is meaningless by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It could apply to most countries in South America, Africa, Asia, and even eastern Europe.

    I'm fairly certain a USian living under a bridge in a cardboard box would much prefer to be a billionaire from one of the many countries available in the areas you listed.

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  8. The begged question... by argStyopa · · Score: 1, Interesting

    ...of course the begged question is if inequality is ACTUALLY bad, or if it's bad, is it even avoidable?

    (Setting aside that this exact phraseology was used by Krugman in 2014 http://www.nybooks.com/article...)

    Picketty, probably the modern Patron Saint of Inequality Demonization, failed spectacularly to demonstrate it. His "Capital" essentially said that the system trends toward inequality regardless of context; the only instances he could point to where it hadn't were after regional or global cataclysms. Even the most ardent of 'levelers' would have to admit that WW2 in total was a worse thing than having a few more billionaires, certainly?

    His third section simply asserts, "...since inequality is bad, then we should do X..." but never bothers to prove why this is so. Even Adam Smith - who was in fact very concerned about poverty - really only managed to complain about very subjective impacts of inequality: that people would admire the wealthy, who were not generally particularly admirable people. (Personally, in what amounts to at-least-the-closest-thing-on-Earth-to-a-capitalist-meritocracy, I'd rather admire a successful asshole than a moronic failure who is JUST AS LIKELY to be an asshole, just nobody cares...)

    Serious economists have savaged Piketty, as from The Journal of Political Economy: âoeCapital is, nonetheless, unpersuasive when it turns from description to analysis. . . . Both of us are very liberal (in the contemporary as opposed to classical sense), and we regard ourselves as egalitarians. We are therefore disturbed that Piketty has undermined the egalitarian case with weak empirical, analytical, and ethical arguments."

    If you can't gin up actual reasons that inequality is inherently bad in an 800+ page magnum opus, it's not there.

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    -Styopa
  9. Re:Wealth inequality is not a problem by dwpro · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Life is about a lot more than meeting basic needs, though that's certainly required. The social contract is predicated on a level of fairness, and there's only so much pay-to-win that the masses will put up with before they decide to flip the table. I'd argue the reason Trump won wasn't affording basic needs. It was the sentiment that everyday folks weren't getting their say in the government, and were ready to throw a grenade in it rather than put up with the status quo.

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  10. Re:Inequality is meaningless by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The rich are the people that create the jobs. You know... that pay people money?

    No, they are not. The vast majority of jobs are created by businesses whose owners, based on income and net worth, are solidly within the middle class.

    This "rich people create jobs" mantra is easily disproven, and in fact has been time and again, but of course the rich tend to have the loudest voices, so it keeps coming back despite its ludicrousness.

    You seem to think you're clever, so look it up. I would say I think you'll be surprised, but I know you won't do it. You have a narrative you've decided on, and you're not going to do anything which might interfere with your belief in it, are you?

    Of course, there is a somewhat crude but easily seen measure of how the wealthy really feel about job creation. Consider how their favorite instrument for taking wealth from others (the stock market) reacts to large layoffs. Massive job destruction is rewarded, frequently handsomely, every time.

  11. Re:Inequality is meaningless by kilfarsnar · · Score: 3, Interesting

    There seems to be this notion that capitalism and socialism are binary concepts, and that socialism and communism are the same. The truth is, they are on a spectrum, with capitalism and communism at the extremes. Somewhere along the spectrum is likely the optimum solution. Where productivity is high, and inequality is low. Everyone is too focused on the advantages and disadvantages of the extremes to explore the area in between.

    Well, to be fair, Americans are thoroughly propagandized to think that Capitalism is some natural force like electromagnetism. They also think it's inseparable from democracy. We're voting with our dollars, right? Basically, we are so bamboozled we can't see straight.

    --
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  12. Regulatory capture by sonamchauhan · · Score: 1, Interesting

    If the main approach to easing disparity is taxing the rich more, the rich will eventually influence the government agencies assigned to extract these taxes. So, regulatory capture.

    A less risky approach would include wealth generation in the poorer classes. Not making them 'employable' - making them 'job creators' - even if it's simply self-employment.

    That is what agrarian reformers of yore did with land redistribution, farm loans, cooperative setups, scientific assistance, etc. That is why app-development looks so attractive (even though there are sharp limits to wealth generation possible there).