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America's 'Retail Apocalypse' Is Really Just Beginning (bloomberg.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Bloomberg: The so-called retail apocalypse has become so ingrained in the U.S. that it now has the distinction of its own Wikipedia entry. The industry's response to that kind of doomsday description has included blaming the media for hyping the troubles of a few well-known chains as proof of a systemic meltdown. There is some truth to that. In the U.S., retailers announced more than 3,000 store openings in the first three quarters of this year. But chains also said 6,800 would close. And this comes when there's sky-high consumer confidence, unemployment is historically low and the U.S. economy keeps growing. Those are normally all ingredients for a retail boom, yet more chains are filing for bankruptcy and rated distressed than during the financial crisis. That's caused an increase in the number of delinquent loan payments by malls and shopping centers. The reason isn't as simple as Amazon.com Inc. taking market share or twenty-somethings spending more on experiences than things. The root cause is that many of these long-standing chains are overloaded with debt -- often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms. There are billions in borrowings on the balance sheets of troubled retailers, and sustaining that load is only going to become harder -- even for healthy chains. The debt coming due, along with America's over-stored suburbs and the continued gains of online shopping, has all the makings of a disaster. The spillover will likely flow far and wide across the U.S. economy. There will be displaced low-income workers, shrinking local tax bases and investor losses on stocks, bonds and real estate. If today is considered a retail apocalypse, then what's coming next could truly be scary.

5 of 398 comments (clear)

  1. Bricks and Mortar can't compete by Baron_Yam · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Here's the thing - I'm old. Not ancient, but middle-aged. So I'm probably not expected by younger people to be comfortable with the latest technologies and customs, right?

    Except when I'm buying things I check Chinese websites first, because the stuff I could buy from a local retailer is generally 1/3 the cost if I get it direct from China, and it's generally the same damn item, only with a lot of unnecessary middle-men removed from the equation. Cutting out a couple of warehouses, an extra trip on a truck, and a whole chain of office and retail workers saves quite a bit of overhead.

    For me that's usually just low end electronics stuff that'll fit in an international mail envelope, but there's all sorts of other stuff, too. Hell, you can get tailored clothing for the price of local off-the-rack stuff.

    Retail is having the same issue the cable television industry is having - the economics have changed and they haven't found a way to adapt. I don't need to drive to a big box store or a mall to pay 300% more for something when with a bit of patience it comes to my house for a lot less.

    1. Re:Bricks and Mortar can't compete by mjwx · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The main reason I buy online is that brick and mortar rarely stock what I want.

      I could go down to Curry's or M&S for something but chances are they aren't going to have it and if they do, its not in stock. So for things I dont need to measure, I'll buy online because they at least have it in stock. The big exception for me is clothing, but even that is changing.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    2. Re:Bricks and Mortar can't compete by 0100010001010011 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Except when I'm buying things I check Chinese websites first,

      Exactly this. A lot of companies didn't realize that I can cut out a lot of layers by just going to the country where they're making their goods.

      Most of my purchases fall into one of two categories: I need it soon or I'll play with it when I have time.

      So most of my shopping is Amazon or Aliexpress. In years past Aliexpress' orders would have gone to Radio Shack but they removed that part of their store a long time ago. Now I'll browse for something neat, order it and play with it when it arrives. I order Arduino Nanos by the 10 pack. It's not worth trying to do PCB development for a $3 one of them costs.

      For stuff like toilet paper or something I could use in a few days Amazon will have it to my door in 2 days.

      The end result is I end up buying a lot more local products. Saving money at Amazon and Aliexpress means I can go to local art fairs, stop by local shops and buy something a local craftsman made. The best knives I own have no brand name. They're some old guy that has no internet that has been making knives in his tiny rural house for decades. I am more than happy to give him money in exchange for a great product.

      If something is going to come from China there's no reason I should be paying Walmart's rent, taxes, and Walton's salaries.

  2. We need showrooms not stores. by jellomizer · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I think the biggest change is that we are no longer really looking for stores, but showrooms. We need a place where we can go and look at the products, touch them, see if they do what they are meant to do. Then we can buy them online. These showrooms may have some small stock but their revenue will be from renting space to the company to showcase their products.

    --
    If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  3. Re: Sears by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The philosophy of actual socialism is that helping everyone results in a better society.

    Instead of only getting the benefit of genius's who come from wealthy family, you get the benefit of all genius's- even those born in poverty because you provided them food for their brains to grow, education for their brains to reach full potential, and reasonably equal opportunity for them to express their genius when they are adults.

    As opposed to the alternative which is that the genius's from poor families are replaced by average (or even sub-average) people from wealthy families.

    The U.S. is not a meritocracy and hasn't been for about 5 generations. Many of the good and important jobs are virtually inherited by the children of people who were brilliant. The son of a senator is a senator. The son of an actor pushes out other better actors who are not the son of an actor.. The sons of judges are lawyers or judges and so on.

    it helps the kids, but it hurts the country.

    Socialism mitigates that tendency but can't erase it. But the relation between child and parent wealth is lower in socialist countries. In the U.S. it's highly correlated these days.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.