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About 40 Percent of Bitcoin Is Held By 1,000 Users. If a Few of Them Want To Sell, That Could Tank Values (bloomberg.com)
On Nov. 12, someone moved almost 25,000 bitcoins, worth about $159 million at the time, to an online exchange. The news soon rippled through online forums, with bitcoin traders arguing about whether it meant the owner was about to sell the digital currency. From a report on Bloomberg: Holders of large amounts of bitcoin are often known as whales. And they're becoming a worry for investors. They can send prices plummeting by selling even a portion of their holdings. And those sales are more probable now that the cryptocurrency is up nearly twelvefold from the beginning of the year. About 40 percent of bitcoin is held by perhaps 1,000 users; at current prices, each may want to sell about half of his or her holdings, says Aaron Brown, former managing director and head of financial markets research at AQR Capital Management. What's more, the whales can coordinate their moves or preview them to a select few. Many of the large owners have known one another for years and stuck by bitcoin through the early days when it was derided, and they can potentially band together to tank or prop up the market.
Show of hands if you are tired of the bitcoin stories?
I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
Have held their value for THOUSANDS of years. Bitcoin, has been around a few years and is as VOLATILE as they come. Not to mention totally intangible. Anyone dumping REAL CASH into this BS that isn't one of those 1000 people... Is giving away all of their money to those 1000 people. Basically. Because WHEN it tanks, the little guy loses 100% of their investment while they try and scramble to sell. While the 1000 sell out using high powered brokerages during its fall, and keep up to 50%...
"I'm no whale but I've been buying small amounts since 2012 and my bitcoin net worth is greater than all my other assets + cash + stock, but I'm not selling."
Bit Coins are so valuable that they are worthless.
It is like having an infinity dollar bill. No one will be able to give you change so you cannot use it. Bitcoins are growing so fast, that a complete idiot would purchase anything with them. Because you cannot purchase anything with them, then it is just imaginary wealth.
You could sell them, but if the price next year goes up by a factor of 100 again, then you will be kicking yourself for buying that car or house where its value will not match to what you had spent.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
I was about to say the same, but with some numbers for context:
Currently, about 700,000 people hold 50% of the world's wealth. While that's 700 times the number of people in control compared to BTC, it also $280T or roughly 1000 times the total market cap of BTC.
https://www.usatoday.com/story...
https://blockchain.info/charts...
I'm sorry, but your opinion seems to be wrong.
Google 'slaying the bearwhale' for lolz; the last time a whale cashed out, Bitcoin nuts actually convinced each other to buy up the coins as fast as they were released in order to keep the coin value up. Obviously the smart move if you really believed in Bitcoin's long term viability would be to let the price crash and buy at the bottom, but the Bitcoin ecosystem isn't exactly chock full of rational players.
The interesting thing is that the real story seems to be missed entirely. Everyone wonders if it's a bubble or if the valuation is too high. That's not the problem. Bit coin is, in its present algorithmic configuration, doomed by it's algorithmic desgin features. Perhaps it will change but there's two flaws of which I will point out one here.
1. Roughly 2000 transactions can be rolled up into each hash completion event. And by design the system equilibrates towards a difficulty where it take 10 minutes for a hash completion to occur. This means that when this becomes popular it becomes hard to directly record more than 2000 transactions (less due to over heads on side transactions) every ten minutes.
That merely makes it slow. But when it becomes oversubscribed in demand for transactions then people pay bounties to get their transactions at the top of the queue. Right now that bounty is about $20 per transaction.
let's compare this to a visa card. A visa merchant might pay 3% for the service. thus on a $666 transaction you would pay 3% or a $20 fee.
Ergo, for any transaction less than $666 bitcoin is ludicrously expensive.
thus it is slow, expensive and unsuited for ordinary purchases. It could be used to move large sums of money but not simple transactions or even micropayments.
I beleive it is this, not the valuation of the coin that makes bit coin doomed.
We saw the first high visibility retreat the other day when Steam stopped taking bitcoin.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
Bitcoin currently has about 15 million userrs. So 1000 of them is only 0.0067%.
1% of the world's population owns about half the world's wealth.
By creating a currency ostensibly free from the corrupting influence of government control of fiat currencies, bitcoin has managed to become a currency which is 150x even more corrupt.
The big difference is that currencies don't rocket up and down by a factor of 12. That's what speculative instruments do.
Until the bitcoin value stabilizes, it by defintion cannot be properly used as a currency and will not be accepted as such by the public.
It's a fun roller coaster ride, but not a practical means of travel, to extend a metaphor.
Bitcoin (in fact, all cryptocurrencies) by contrast are more like gold. They are mathematically constrained to a very well-known limited supply, about 29 million in the case of bitcoin. The supply is well known. The only variable is the demand.
Yes, we get the theory, thanks.
All money is artificial. I don't understand why this point is so hard for people to grasp. Money is worth whatever value people collectively ascribe to it.
Real money is worth what important people/organisations/countries ascribe to it.
The only people ascribing any value to Bitcoin so far are the the people who own enough to think they're going to be magically wealthy, for free.
No sig today...
I believe you may have misconstrued the problem with Bitcoin. It's not so much the volatility of fiat currencies... I mean of bitcoin. Whatever. One could just as easily argue that the USD (or whatever other fiat currency one prefers) is ridiculously volatile relative to bitcoin.
No, Bitcoin is the volatile one, not USD, because USD remains relatively stable against all other currencies such as GBP, the Euro, or the Yen. Bitcoin fluctuates wildly against all of them... and it is the odd one out... bitcoin IS the one wildly swinging compared to the others.
The reason it matters is that you'd be silly to purchase anything with bitcoin at the moment, not just because of the charges involved ($20... has to be a fairly big purchase before $20 charge becomes negligible), but also because with bitcoin going up so much, what buys you a burger today will buy you a supersized combo meal tomorrow. A Ford Festiva today or an Aston Martin next week.
At the moment bitcoin is an investment instrument, not a usable currency. That doesn't mean it always will be. It will stabilize eventually... the question is- will it pop before stabilizing or will it plateau gracefully. No-one really knows. Once it's stable- it could be a meaningful exchange for large purchases... fees will probably be too much to use on a trip to Tesco for a bag of mushy peas- but if you're exchanging a million dollar transaction between two major corporations *cough drug dealers* then a $20 fee is chump change.
"That's the way to do it" - Punch