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Bitcoin Watchers Running Out of Explanations Blame Slump on Moon (bloomberg.com)

Posted by msmash on from the not-the-onion dept.

If regulatory concerns aren't enough to explain Bitcoin's 50 percent slump from its record high reached last month, how about blaming it on the moon? An anonymous reader writes: The Lunar New Year, which marks the first day of the year in the Chinese calendar, is being cited by some as contributing to Bitcoin's slump as Asian traders cash out their cryptocurrencies to travel and buy gifts for the holiday that starts Feb. 16 this year. The festivity is celebrated not just in China, but in other Asian countries including Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and Thailand. "The January drop is a recurring theme in cryptocurrencies as people celebrating the Chinese New Year, aka Lunar New Year, exchange their crypto for fiat currency," said Alexander Wallin, chief executive officer of trading social network SprinkleBit in New York. "The timing is about four to six weeks before the lunar year, when most people make their travel arrangements and start buying presents."

9 of 157 comments (clear)

  1. Compare the charts by Anon-Admin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Just compare the charts for the last 5 years. It drops off like this every year about this time. This is not that unusual.

    1. Re:Compare the charts by msauve · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Correlation is not causality. And, if you think past performance is an indication of future outcomes, did you buy in Oct, sell in Dec, and will you be doing the same again next year?

      Oh, and BTW, no it doesn't "drop off like this every year about this time." Let's look at the last 5 years, as you suggest:

      There was a 46% drop in Jan 2018 from a December peak.

      ...about a 30% drop in Jan 2017 from an early January peak.

      ...about a 20% drop in Jan 2016 from an early January peak.

      There was a drop of about 46% ending in Jan 2015, but that occured over the span of two months, not two weeks, so isn't comparable.

      Jan '14 basically held steady.

      Jan '13 was a steady rise.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
  2. Re: People are jumping to other Crypto by reanjr · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Perhaps, but the other major altcoins (ETH, BCH, and LTC) are dropping faster.

  3. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Its not a slump. Its more a correction.

  4. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by Graydyn+Young · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A correction would have them all go down to zero.

  5. Bitcoin was barely usable all year. by i286NiNJA · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Bitcoin's transaction fees were higher than paypal unless you wanted to wait days for a transaction to go directly to the ledger. Of course it's a stupid time to be investing.

    Who are these people?

  6. Loaded by chispito · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm pretty skeptical of cryptocurrencies in general and of the viability of BitCoin in particular, but--my goodness--what a needlessly loaded headline.

    --
    The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
  7. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    For a technology site, the fear of the unknown masquerading as haughty dismissal is akin to my father asking why anyone would want to pay $14/mo for dialup to send email, when you could write a letter and use a stamp for only $0.14.

  8. Just imagine ... by surfcow · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Imagine that someone invented a method
    of converting Terawatts electricity and human intellect
    into a symbolic currency with no intrinsic value,
    with no link to any material asset,
    not backed by any government (except North Korea),
    and which you can not actually spend at the local store.

    Oh, wait ...

    Generates pollution without generating value.

    Exxon should love it.