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Bitcoin Watchers Running Out of Explanations Blame Slump on Moon (bloomberg.com)

If regulatory concerns aren't enough to explain Bitcoin's 50 percent slump from its record high reached last month, how about blaming it on the moon? An anonymous reader writes: The Lunar New Year, which marks the first day of the year in the Chinese calendar, is being cited by some as contributing to Bitcoin's slump as Asian traders cash out their cryptocurrencies to travel and buy gifts for the holiday that starts Feb. 16 this year. The festivity is celebrated not just in China, but in other Asian countries including Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and Thailand. "The January drop is a recurring theme in cryptocurrencies as people celebrating the Chinese New Year, aka Lunar New Year, exchange their crypto for fiat currency," said Alexander Wallin, chief executive officer of trading social network SprinkleBit in New York. "The timing is about four to six weeks before the lunar year, when most people make their travel arrangements and start buying presents."

25 of 157 comments (clear)

  1. Compare the charts by Anon-Admin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Just compare the charts for the last 5 years. It drops off like this every year about this time. This is not that unusual.

    1. Re:Compare the charts by war4peace · · Score: 2

      It's a good time to buy cheap altcoins.
      Take 1000 bucks; buy 10 top-falling altcoins from top 200, spend 100 dollars worth on each. Wait until market recovers, sell them for a profit.
      In the meantime I'll keep mining Vertcoin and Unitus, 1.5 VTC and 22-25 UIS per day.

      --
      ...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
    2. Re:Compare the charts by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      Just compare the charts against that of a standard economic bubble. It drops off like this every time about this time, ... and it will drop a shitload more.

    3. Re:Compare the charts by msauve · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Correlation is not causality. And, if you think past performance is an indication of future outcomes, did you buy in Oct, sell in Dec, and will you be doing the same again next year?

      Oh, and BTW, no it doesn't "drop off like this every year about this time." Let's look at the last 5 years, as you suggest:

      There was a 46% drop in Jan 2018 from a December peak.

      ...about a 30% drop in Jan 2017 from an early January peak.

      ...about a 20% drop in Jan 2016 from an early January peak.

      There was a drop of about 46% ending in Jan 2015, but that occured over the span of two months, not two weeks, so isn't comparable.

      Jan '14 basically held steady.

      Jan '13 was a steady rise.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    4. Re: Compare the charts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      The moon is flat.

  2. Re: People are jumping to other Crypto by reanjr · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Perhaps, but the other major altcoins (ETH, BCH, and LTC) are dropping faster.

  3. Think of the poor Moon! by DickBreath · · Score: 3, Funny

    The moon gets blamed for everything. People blame the moon for causing the ocean tides. Warewolf attacks. Increased crime. Now people blame the moon for bitcoin slumps.

    I've got news for you: It is the ocean tides that are to blame for causing the moon! Proof is their direct correlation.

    I couldn't do my homework because . . . . the moon! (Because Windows 8 my homework no longer works.)

    --

    I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
    1. Re:Think of the poor Moon! by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

      With their "to the Moon!", Buttcoin proponents had revealed themselves as certifiable lunatics long before this newest claim.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
  4. Re:Another Trump Victory by DickBreath · · Score: 2

    Build a wall around the bitcoins and make the bitcoins pay for it!

    --

    I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
  5. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Its not a slump. Its more a correction.

  6. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by Graydyn+Young · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A correction would have them all go down to zero.

  7. Certainly isn't people cashing out by DalM · · Score: 2

    It certainly isn't rich people racing to cash out and stop from losing more money then they already have. Because that wasn't foreseeable.

  8. Bitcoin was barely usable all year. by i286NiNJA · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Bitcoin's transaction fees were higher than paypal unless you wanted to wait days for a transaction to go directly to the ledger. Of course it's a stupid time to be investing.

    Who are these people?

    1. Re:Bitcoin was barely usable all year. by MrVictor · · Score: 2

      The dumbest people on the internet; redditors

    2. Re:Bitcoin was barely usable all year. by Orgasmatron · · Score: 2

      Bitcoin Cash is more like Bitcoin than Bitcoin is. It is way too early to tell, but we could be looking at the first stages of a switch from Bitcoin (which isn't really Bitcoin any more) to Bitcoin Cash (which still IS Bitcoin).

      Or (in my opinion far more likely) the market price was way too high compared to the long term trend, and is now correcting. We could fall all the way back to ~5 times the previous peak high (or lower if it overcorrects) and not make it back to 10-20k for 2 or three years.

      --
      See that "Preview" button?
  9. Brocoin Astrology by PopeRatzo · · Score: 5, Funny

    Everybody knows you shouldn't buy Bitcoins when Mercury is retrograde. Wait until the moon is in the seventh house, and Jupiter aligns with Mars. Then blockchain will guide the planets and cryptocurrency will steer the stars.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  10. Loaded by chispito · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm pretty skeptical of cryptocurrencies in general and of the viability of BitCoin in particular, but--my goodness--what a needlessly loaded headline.

    --
    The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
  11. Oops by FFOMelchior · · Score: 2

    Posted a reply instead of on the topic. Apologies.

  12. The Moon: A Ridiculous Liberal Myth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    The Moon: A Ridiculous Liberal Myth

    It amazes me that so many allegedly "educated" people have fallen so quickly and so hard for a fraudulent fabrication of such laughable proportions. The very idea that a gigantic ball of rock happens to orbit our planet, showing itself in neat, four-week cycles -- with the same side facing us all the time -- is ludicrous. Furthermore, it is an insult to common sense and a damnable affront to intellectual honesty and integrity. That people actually believe it is evidence that the liberals have wrested the last vestiges of control of our public school system from decent, God-fearing Americans (as if any further evidence was needed! Daddy's Roommate? God Almighty!)

    Documentaries such as Enemy of the State have accurately portrayed the elaborate, byzantine network of surveillance satellites that the liberals have sent into space to spy on law-abiding Americans. Equipped with technology developed by Handgun Control, Inc., these satellites have the ability to detect firearms from hundreds of kilometers up. That's right, neighbors .. the next time you're out in the backyard exercising your Second Amendment rights, the liberals will see it! These satellites are sensitive enough to tell the difference between a Colt .45 and a .38 Special! And when they detect you with a firearm, their computers cross-reference the address to figure out your name, and then an enormous database housed at Berkeley is updated with information about you.

    Of course, this all works fine during the day, but what about at night? Even the liberals can't control the rotation of the Earth to prevent nightfall from setting in (only Joshua was able to ask for that particular favor!) That's where the "moon" comes in. Powered by nuclear reactors, the "moon" is nothing more than an enormous balloon, emitting trillions of candlepower of gun-revealing light. Piloted by key members of the liberal community, the "moon" is strategically moved across the country, pointing out those who dare to make use of their God-given rights at night!

    Yes, I know this probably sounds paranoid and preposterous, but consider this. Despite what the revisionist historians tell you, there is no mention of the "moon" anywhere in literature or historical documents -- anywhere -- before 1950. That is when it was initially launched. When President Josef Kennedy, at the State of the Union address, proclaimed "We choose to go to the moon", he may as well have said "We choose to go to the weather balloon." The subsequent faking of a "moon" landing on national TV was the first step in a long history of the erosion of our constitutional rights by leftists in this country. No longer can we hide from our government when the sun goes down.

    1. Re:The Moon: A Ridiculous Liberal Myth by jwhyche · · Score: 2

      Well played. You actually had me going there for a moment.

      --
      I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
  13. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    For a technology site, the fear of the unknown masquerading as haughty dismissal is akin to my father asking why anyone would want to pay $14/mo for dialup to send email, when you could write a letter and use a stamp for only $0.14.

  14. The slump is internal manipulation by Khyber · · Score: 2

    Go look at CoinMarketCap's historical charts. Pretty much every cryptocurrency moves in almost exact lockstep in rises and dips. That wouldn't happen in a diverse crypto economy, the fluctuations would be much more varied instead of nearly perfectly identical. This is a dead giveaway of inside manipulation and cashing out while the cashing out is good.

    --
    Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
  15. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by spun · · Score: 2

    Wait, are you saying that if it turns out later that he was wrong, then he's not right?

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  16. Just imagine ... by surfcow · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Imagine that someone invented a method
    of converting Terawatts electricity and human intellect
    into a symbolic currency with no intrinsic value,
    with no link to any material asset,
    not backed by any government (except North Korea),
    and which you can not actually spend at the local store.

    Oh, wait ...

    Generates pollution without generating value.

    Exxon should love it.

  17. Re:People are jumping to other Crypto by exomondo · · Score: 2

    But it has nothing to do with Bitcoin, which at this point is no longer a currency, but just pure speculation and gambling.

    It never really worked as a currency, nobody priced things in bitcoin because it was far too volatile, instead anybody accepting bitcoin either priced things in fiat currencies and specified "equivalent in bitcoin" or used an intermediary to convert bitcoin to fiat currencies so they didn't have to hold bitcoin.