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The Doomsday Clock Just Ticked Closer To Midnight (usatoday.com)
Scientists moved the hands of the symbolic "Doomsday Clock" closer to midnight on Thursday amid increasing worries over nuclear weapons and climate change. From a report: The clock is now two minutes to midnight. "Because of the extraordinary danger of the current moment, the Science and Security Board today moves the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to catastrophe," said Rachel Bronson, president of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. "This is the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War." Each year, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a non-profit group that sets the clock, decides whether the events of the previous year pushed humanity closer or farther from destruction. The symbolic clock is now the closest it's been to midnight since 1953. It was also two minutes to midnight in 1953 when the hydrogen bomb was first tested.
I thought it was almost lunchtime.
Have gnu, will travel.
Attention-seeking peaceniks is more like it.
They are a graphic for about a half dozen logic fallacies.
love is just extroverted narcissism
I think this idea of the Doomsday clock being soooo close to midnight reveals just how useless a measurement of crisis it actually is. They're suggesting that a global nuclear holocaust has never been more likely? More likely than during the Cuban Missile Crisis? Than when the president of China urged President Nixon to join him in nuking Russia? Closer than when Pakistan and India took turns testing nukes underground in the early 2000's? All of those years of the cold war where both the US and USSR had nuclear-armed bombers flying all around?
The only location where a nuclear event is likely to take place would be in North Korea: If any event took place, it would have to be a limited attack by the North Korea, prompting a US response. But that isn't to suggest an entire global nuclear winter would necessarily follow.
This is nothing but attention-seeking for the organization behind the clock and in no way measures the actual threat of a nuclear doomsday.
Hippies practicing scare tactics aren't scientists. From the weather through volcanology history has shown that people predicting the future are not scientists of any merit.
Where was the clock then ?
>> This is the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War
Hmmm...2 away minutes = global nuclear destruction in 1953 but 2 away minutes = incremental climate changes and a possible limited exchange (over North Korea, etc.) in 2018. Why are the goalposts moving?
Maybe if more people listened to and learned from Iron Maiden we would not be in this mess
The "Civilized World" jumped the shark ca. 1973.
Really, so now is the time where the Doomsday Clock is the closest to midnight in its whole history? Really?
More than those WW3 close calls? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Elok
To hell with this 2 minutes and 2 seconds to midnight. Lets just roll the damn thing right on up to midnight and see what happens! Common Hippies, make my day! Lets set that fucker right on midnight!.
I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
I think that their problem is that they continually wanted to protest some action and kept pushing the clock closer, only now they've run out of room and look damned foolish because all of these little political statements have add up to what we see now. As you point out when you look at it in a historical context, it makes you roll your eyes quite a bit.
They clearly need to walk the clock back quite a bit and do so periodically when whatever new thing they're worried about fails to come to pass or lead to new cause for concern.
Question. If the missiles do start flying who is going to be left to set the thing to midnight? I doubt the cockroaches and rats will give a shit ether way.
I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
Pretty sure they also use it for climate change and other crazy shit instead of just nuclear war.
"This is the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War."
So they honestly feel as though the world is this close to nuclear war?
Mod me down with all of your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete!
Or do they just keep forgetting to adjust for leap seconds.
Oh fuck off you whiny little bitch
Any fool can see they are 3 seconds off...
The methodology is so transparent and the calculation is easily understood and not controversial in the least....
5 out of 6 people enjoy Russian Roulette & 6 out of 7 Dwarfs are not Happy
There was a time when America prided itself in it's technological prowess. A time when we believed science had the potential to solve our problems and propel us into the future. It's sad that we've gone the other way, clutching superstition and paranoia, as a great thinker once predicted: https://www.goodreads.com/quot...
This has historically been a "pro tech" site, which be definition and education should include individuals educated in science... but alas, it's just more politicized, polarized arse holes too willing to jump on the reichwinger "blame libs for all evils" bs....
Your prizes:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news...
https://worldtop20.org/2017-wo...
http://thehill.com/policy/inte...
And the cherry, the US, the Country FOUNDED on the principles of freedom, drops to 21....well done....
http://theweek.com/speedreads/...
Go suck your thumb in the corner
It's kind of like when your teacher/parent demanded you do something by the time they counted down from 10. But when you still hadn't done it by the time they got to 1, they started with ever smaller fractions.
"The clock is now two minutes to midnight."
Iron Maiden has been waiting for this sponsorship opportunity for a long damn time.
Time to elect Eddie to Head up the position of Doomsday Czar.
I wonder how much money has been wasted on this snake oil crap over the last 7 decades. Seriously, astrology is more credible.
They clearly need to walk the clock back quite a bit and do so periodically when whatever new thing they're worried about fails to come to pass or lead to new cause for concern.
Admit they were wrong? Never. Better to keep up the facade that the end is nigh. Personally, I like the Dr. Manhattans view on the Doomsday clock. " I would only agree that a symbolic clock is as nourishing to the intellect as photograph of oxygen to a drowning man. ".
The clock is war propaganda to get us to pre-emptively invade NK. The very existence of this clock brings the doomsday itself. Albeit only for a small nation of starving peasants, but still.
I think that their problem is that they continually wanted to protest some action and kept pushing the clock closer, only now they've run out of room and look damned foolish because all of these little political statements have add up to what we see now. As you point out when you look at it in a historical context, it makes you roll your eyes quite a bit. They clearly need to walk the clock back quite a bit and do so periodically when whatever new thing they're worried about fails to come to pass or lead to new cause for concern.
It's even more foolish now. The Koreans are talking to each other, the US has postponed their military exercises in Korea until after the Olympics, and the proxy wars in the Middle East are not as hot as they were a year ago. Ukraine and Crimea have "calmed down" in the sense that nobody in the USA cares anymore.
If anything, they should be setting the clock backwards.
Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
He wasn't supposed to win? According to who? Peter Strozk and Lisa Page with their insurance policy?
Last I understood people in elections decide who is supposed to win.
Threat levels or 'risk advisories' make a lot more sense than a clock. One of them is just a meaningless allegorical device....
love is just extroverted narcissism
Really, we never have. Can you please post some links to illustrate his clueless buffoonery? Credible sources only please.
I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
I think this idea of the Doomsday clock being soooo close to midnight reveals just how useless a measurement of crisis it actually is. They're suggesting that a global nuclear holocaust has never been more likely? More likely than during the Cuban Missile Crisis?
OK... so time for my smart ass response... of course we're closer to a global nuclear holocaust than the Cuban Missile Crisis- because that event was in the past- any potential nuclear holocaust can only exist in the future... (sorry had to get that out the way- I'm not proud of myself)...
Than when the president of China urged President Nixon to join him in nuking Russia? Closer than when Pakistan and India took turns testing nukes underground in the early 2000's? All of those years of the cold war where both the US and USSR had nuclear-armed bombers flying all around?
The only location where a nuclear event is likely to take place would be in North Korea: If any event took place, it would have to be a limited attack by the North Korea, prompting a US response. But that isn't to suggest an entire global nuclear winter would necessarily follow.
This is nothing but attention-seeking for the organization behind the clock and in no way measures the actual threat of a nuclear doomsday.
Serious response time. Obviously we're no more in danger of mutually self-assured mass destruction (in the short term) than we appeared to be during any of those events. Few people would sanely argue that we are. It can change any moment... two major world leaders have a big misunderstanding about something, read a missile launch incorrectly... *boom* - but the plain reality is, that doesn't appear to be any more likely now, than it did during those events.
With that said, I think the doomsday clock has some merit. It's not really scientific, it's not really accurate, it's more subjective than objective, but it still has value. It's a social narrative that says "hey look-here; we need a wake up call, things are going down the wrong path... we don't want to accidentally blow up the earth."
When the newspapers of the world write "doomsday-clock moves closer to midnight" it always makes news around the world and people at least partially pay attention. (we're discussing it now). The problem with this model is...it's not as easy to move backwards as it is to move forwards. You move the hand back and it gives people the wrong impression; the result is you have a hand moving ever closer to *boom*.
Could a better scale be made? Could a better system be put in place?
Absolutely, but this is one the public understands and know about now so it appears to have stuck. Even a broken clock occasionally tells the right time.
"That's the way to do it" - Punch
It's kind of like when your teacher/parent demanded you do something by the time they counted down from 10. But when you still hadn't done it by the time they got to 1, they started with ever larger wooden spoons.
That's how I remember it...
Spoons? You were lucky.
And what the hell is this concept of a parent 'counting down from 10'? We might have had a word of warning, or not, depending on how loud the crying was.
If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
There is one important difference between the Cuban Missile Crisis and today. Kennedy and Khrushchev were talking to each other. Trump and Kim are not.
If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
Kim Jong-un nuked my neighbor's poodle! It was unbelievable!
Nice wallotext!
I'd rather have them doing proxy dick waving by comparing launch button sizes than by comparing smoking holes in the ground.
Time to offend someone
The only location where a nuclear event is likely to take place would be in North Korea: If any event took place, it would have to be a limited attack by the North Korea, prompting a US response. But that isn't to suggest an entire global nuclear winter would necessarily follow.
Assuming the Trump administration is willing to sit there and watch them build bigger bombs and better missiles while throwing insults and bluffs for Kim Jong-il to call. I mean if this was a bar I'd call them fighting words, just looking for an excuse to start swinging fists. And assuming China is willing to just let North Korea fall and be gobbled up by a US-friendly united Korea. My guess is that after the US has leveled Pyongyang and started to prepare for an invasion China would roll in their troops and try to make it a new Tibet.
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
I thought the DHS's rainbow of death was replaced by something else.
Time to offend someone
.
And that is how you measure the danger. That's just the public perception. The main reason these doomsday people aren't taken serious is because the public is now completely clueless.
The danger in Ukraine is increasing, not decreasing. The danger of an unintentional war between Russia and the US has increased massively. Much shorter warning times because the US is on Russia's border (and to much smaller extent the opposite is also true) and an aggressive US policy which feels safe because 'it didn't go wrong before' and a US decision system which is out of control.
I think that their problem is that they continually wanted to protest some action and kept pushing the clock closer, only now they've run out of room...
If they really are physicists then they have a huge amount of room left. 2 minutes is 120 billion nanoseconds and you can gain the same factor again by going to attoseconds. At that point though you are at the accuracy of the most accurate clocks ever made and things like the height of the clock will start to matter due to gravitational time dilation.
They chose the clock as their allegorical device precisely because a clock does not run backwards. That was their mistake. To say that things are bad, and will only get worse, is admitting defeat. Why publish anything if on the cover you admit that the world is going to end in the foreseeable future?
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
This is clueless. A modest nuclear war say between India and Pakistan can cause a nuclear winter which leads to a worldwide famine which by itself can decimate the world population in a short time without all the conflicts and the structural desintegration which result from that. It would be very hard to contain.
The danger of a war with North Korea is of course in the first place that there would be millions of dead over there, and maybe a fraction of that in the US. If everything remains contained. But for things to remain contained you need an awful lot of competence and a lot of luck.
And what the hell is this concept of a parent 'counting down from 10'?
I'm New Around Here ( 1154723 ). You better start cleaning your room before I count to 10. 1. 2. Skip a few. 9. ... ... ... 9 1/2. 9 3/4. 9 7/8. 10. Dammit. I'm New Around Here ( 1154723 ) you are grounded! Your father will belt you good when he gets home!
You must not be so new around here ;)
I'm not sure that's a good comparison. Trump is currently bluffing , that's his style. He's not afraid of raising the tension and it doesn't mean he won't negotiate. He may well make a shift to negotiations later on, but there is considerable risk that things escalate in the meantime unintentionally. There is far too much confidence.
YOU SUNK MY BAFFLESHIT!
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
Yeah, we had this growing up: https://www.rayzist.com/Assets...
SIG FAULT: Post index out of bounds.
In a general sense I think you're right. The US sees much less reason to talk than 50 years ago but that's independent of Trump.
I read at +6 !!! With Sigs off !!!
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
And yes, I'd happen to agree that we're possibly closer than we've ever been. The situation with NK is quite bad, and the US relationship with Russia isn't so great either. We have the ruskies meddling in Elections across the world, and a Russia that seems to want to grab land wherever they can.
I guarantee you we are closer than we've ever been. Also, every time you breath, you are one breath closer to death, so I would probably stop doing that. /s
SIG FAULT: Post index out of bounds.
breathe**
SIG FAULT: Post index out of bounds.
Not to mention that it would suggest that an event is inevitable-
It's like having a gun in your house. If you have one, the chance of getting shot with your own gun is now non-zero. Then you can start to add other risk factors such as having children or keeping it loaded under the bed. Then drug or alcohol abuse or someone in home with mental issues.
You can have all of the above and the chance of a shooting are still fairly slim.
love is just extroverted narcissism
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That's some fine propaganda there, comrade. Russia is annexing neighbouring nations, but it's the US that's aggressive and "on their borders".
Ever taken a look at the map where nato was 20 years ago and where it is now? Oh that doesn't count. Let's not forget ,the US has DEFENSE forces, so it's not aggressive . So if for instance it now officially starts pumping weaponry into Ukraine that's not aggressive. By definition,right?
'comrade' is clueless in two ways. one, the spectrum of people who would agree with me includes political realists like Walt and Mearsheimer. Second, current government in Russia is rightwing, not communist. Oh the few communists who are still around somewhere might well take russia's side, because they're anti imperialist.
You might want to take into account that most of the countries added couldn't wait to join NATO and/or EU as soon as they were free to do anything that didn't come on orders from Moscow.
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
North Korea is China's puppet.
If this were even remotely the case, NK would not have its own nukes.
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
Thanks for your comforting words.
Idiot.
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
Our mom and dad never counted to or from any number. They told us to do something, and we got spanked if we didn't.
If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
The counting would only happen sometimes. If I was in trouble I would get my full name and the belt. Funny why using the full name would denote being in trouble. Never understood that one I just knew that if I heard my full name things were serious and I was probably in trouble.
Let me translate this for y’all:
A group of people who know absolutely nothing more about the future than any of the rest of us have just issued a message whose only possible impact is to cause people increased worry and stress, since in the event of the assholes in charge deciding to commit mass suicide on behalf of the entire planet, you personally cannot do a single, solitary goddamned fucking thing about it. If you crawl into a shelter in time, assuming you survive, living through the aftermath will make the worst of times today look like a picnic with wine and roses. Also, not to belabor the point, but it either will happen, (in which case we are all 100% fucked,) or it won’t, in which case fretting over it is completely goddamned pointless.
These so-called scientists don’t know if it WILL HAPPEN, OR IF IT WON’T ANY MORE THAN THE REST OF US. There is no precedent to be extrapolated from. No one has ever been in a so-called “Mexican Standoff,” (a term from old Westerns, referring to a group of people pointing guns at other people inside the group,) with everyone in the world’s lives depending on every member of that effectively circular firing squad behaving in a fashion consistent with NOT killing anyone.
It makes precisely the same amount of sense worrying about this on a day to day basis as it does worrying about some nearby star emitting a Gamma Ray Burst, and sterilizing the Planet Earth with a bath of absolutely deadly radiation that will kill each and every living organism on the planet, wherever it is, instantly, no matter how hardy and/or protected it may happen to be. It either won’t happen or it will, and nothing you do can have any impact on that either, so don’t worry, be happy. It’s not like if it happens, you’ll even notice it. As for things you might be able to do about any of this stuff long-term, like Global Climate Change... consider starting with not voting for anyone who takes corporate or large & anonymous campaign bribes. That’d be the biggest single step in remedying our problems and extending our species’ life-expectancy. Worrying about some bullshit hypothetical Scare You Clock is, by contrast, counterproductive.
Our reign has gone on long enough. Indeed. Summon the meteors.
Most academics and the media are hardcore democrats that are (still) scaremongering as much fake news and unjustified paranoia to stir up unrest against the current government, just because they didn't get their way during the election. So what's new?
I even take in account that Russia itself considered joining NATO. I Suppose if Canada and Mexico started piling up Russian missile systems against the US that would not be a problem as long as they did it voluntarily.
lol @ "piling up missile systems"
Good one comrade! That's some fine cold war era propaganda right there.
There's a lot of rage against the clock in this thread, without much in the way of good arguments, and with a lot of name calling.
Personally, I think it's great.
- It's an effective hack of the discourse. After all we're talking about it.
- It's beautiful in that it's a visual metaphore, one which we all get. The angst of getting close to a deadline. Rarely are scientists able to bring across their message in a way that is more emotional than numerical. And that alone should be applauded.
- For me, the position on the clock resonates. Not having experienced the Cuban missile crisis, I can tell you this is the first time in my life that I consider nuclear war as a potential outcome of our current situation and trajectory.
What is wrong with attention seeking peaceniks? Isn't peace what we all want?
To be clear you have a colossal idiot bragging about the size of his nuclear button while actively threatening a hostile nuclear capable state that is allied with a very large nuclear capable state.
So for a given rounding error I would say the prediction is pretty damn dire. It may not be worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis, but it sure as hell is worse than some other country simply doing a few tests.
Up the irons! (how many of you will get the reference?
Unfortunately the so called debunking of the nuclear winter was done by somebody with no knowledge of climate science.
US and USSR scientists, independently, calculated the effect of the nuclear winter in the 1980s and came to the same conclusion. More recently simulations have been run again, this time with better understanding of the climate and massively more powerful simulation tools - and has discovered that the 1980s predictions if anything were optimistic - the nuclear winter effect was actually likely to be much worse. A simulation was also run on a regional conflict between India and Pakistan with an exchange of just 50 weapons. The effects are worse when the conflict occurs in subtropical latitudes. Such a conflict would trigger a "nuclear autumn" that would shorten the growing season in the US midwest by 60 days in the couple of years following the conflict, and would have serious climate consequences lasting about a decade. This level of growing season shortening would cause food shortages and high food prices in the rich industrialised world, and simply result in famine in poorer countries and places where agriculture is already marginal.
A US-vs-Russia exchange with a significant fraction of the arsenal...nuclear winter doesn't even describe it - more like "nuclear six month long night" - the models forecast mid day light levels in the northern hemisphere about similar to a moonlit night. Six months without food growth would kill most of the survivors, before even considering the cold.
Oolite: Elite-like game. For Mac, Linux and Windows
Relax, the original scientists that looked at global extinction are long gone. It's now a measure of angry tweets and Starbucks proximity.
I note general hilarity here. You people should be ashamed. The Doomsday Clock broke again on the day they issued a memo with a ranked list placing the threat of "climate change" above "nuclear war".
It is a little known fact that the Doomsday Clock is over 150 years old, and for many years was kept by the Masons and existed in secret at an undisclosed Lodge. On June 30, 1908, much to the surprise of those assembled in its chamber, the Doomsday Clock actually chimed midnight! Scaring the bejeezus out of everyone. Mystified them too because the whole idea of a minutes-to-midnight Doomsday Clock had been an old yarn because they had this broken clock and didn't have the heart to toss it out.
Nervously they dragged the hands back from midnight and their brethren have been flicking it back and forth ever since. Until this old Russian film emerged no one knew why the clock had chimed.
SEE this old Russian film and learn the TRUTH.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I changed the music, its original music was contaminated by heavy metals. Also last year I changed the video's title from "Bedtime Story" to "Bedtime Story - The First 100 Days of A Donald Trump Presidency" to troll for anti-Trump persons.
<blink>down the rabbit hole</blink>
and unless I missed something, the only reason Trump was elected was because the Republican party allegedly with overseas help gamed the electoral college system, while Clinton, who was not necessarily the better candidate won the popular vote.
Yes, well, when the rules say that the electoral college decides the President, then you go with what the rules say and don't whine that that's the way the other side played when you lose.