Tesla Employees Say Gigafactory Problems Are Worse Than Known (cnbc.com)

It's a 10^9 factory by Hognoxious · 2018-01-27 01:09 · Score: 4, Funny

It's a 10^9 factory, but they were expecting 2^30?

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Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."

How is this different ... by pablo_max · 2018-01-27 01:17 · Score: 5, Insightful

How is that different than every other company in the world? I have worked with and for at a lot of places over the years and one thing is universal, most of the people have no idea at all what they are doing.
It is amazing to me that some companies are even able to put products on the market at all. I am not talking only about the small guys either.
I was once testing a wireless product for one of the largest companies in Europe for global radio certification (FCC/ISED/CE and many others). Once I got the devices I told them.. hey, thanks a lot for sending these samples, but it would be great if you could send them with a SMA connector so we could test the radios as well.
What is a SMA connector, was the response. After explaining it a couple of days went by and they called me up and explained that the guy who knows how to do that quit the company so it would be better if we changed the design for them to make it work.
Of course this kind of shit happens ever every company every single day. These are not things which people know about it.
So, you can say that 100% of companies are shittier than people on the outside know about.

Re:How is this different ... by tomtomtom · 2018-01-27 01:25 · Score: 2, Insightful

It's different because most companies realise this and try to underpromise and overdeliver publicly. Tesla has a track record of doing the opposite. And the stakes are also a lot higher than usual - the company's survival could depend on this single product.
Re:How is this different ... by swb · 2018-01-27 01:35 · Score: 4, Insightful

I think it's getting worse. We seem to have a growth in the amount of complexity of things individually and an increasing number of them, combined with a corresponding lack of investment in training.
As one kind of an example, an IT department 15 years ago had simpler networks, servers and software to manage. Now each of those things is much more complex than it used to be but the number of people managing it is the same and they probably don't know any more details than they did when it was simpler. High level management (virtualization, etc) may have made managing larger breadth easier, but I think the individual complexity has been addressed at all and lots of it is essentially not understood.
Re:How is this different ... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 01:41 · Score: 1, Insightful

So, Tesla is different from IBM, Microsoft, nuclear power plant builders, defense contractors, food chains with their polished ads, etc. etc. when it comes to promises vs. deliveries? I guess I haven't noticed that...

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:How is this different ... by burtosis · 2018-01-27 01:54 · Score: 2

I came to the same startling conclusion after talking to a "PhD" mechanical engineer at a medium sized contract manufacturer and discovering they couldn't explain the technical side how a hammer works.
Re:How is this different ... by drinkypoo · 2018-01-27 02:06 · Score: 3, Insightful

It's different because most companies realise this and try to underpromise and overdeliver publicly.
It's different because Tesla is operating on hype. Every other car company teases designs, but they only make actual claims about performance and scheduling when they are absolutely sure they can meet them. Tesla can lose money and the stock goes up, traditional automakers have to turn a profit just to keep it flat. But Tesla will die just as soon as the buzz does. If all the unpaid Tesla promoters like Rei stopped doing the work they're doing on behalf of Tesla, the company would fold up like a cheap magazine, because Wall Street would stop rewarding them for losing money.

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"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Re:How is this different ... by Antique+Geekmeister · 2018-01-27 02:13 · Score: 1

>> It's different because most companies realise this and try to underpromise and overdeliver publicly.
> It's different because Tesla is operating on hype
Oh my. I'd agree that most companies realize this, but I've dealt with many startups and some very large companies that are operating on hype. They're not good long term customers, or partners, but they're certainly not rare.
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:18 · Score: 0

If your entire company is based on a physical product, unlike most startups, you best operate on a bit more than hype.
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:31 · Score: 0

Everybody else is doing it, so why can't Tesla?
Re: How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:44 · Score: 3, Insightful

The difference is that Tesla always delivers, just slower than anticipated. All companies miss their deadlines. Most companies deliver over hyped products. Tesla always delivers what it promises. Reviews are consistently positive on their products. That's the difference
Re:How is this different ... by Socguy · 2018-01-27 03:49 · Score: 3, Insightful

Meh. A handful of fired employees saying bad things about their former employer... A bunch of short sellers on Wall Street currently in line to lose BILLIONS after shorting Tesla stock for months only to see the stock shoot up... not surprised at all to see a hatchet job like this.
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 04:51 · Score: 0

Tesla also has a track record of being coddled and having excuse after excuse either believed or just plain made up for them by 20-somethings and the Wall Street traders who want to fleece them. Here's a helpful hint: your portfolio ought to have more in it than Facebook, Apple, Google, Twitter, and Tesla in it. When the rug comes out from under the tech industry, which it will because as someone else stated nobody knows what they're doing, people are in for a really bad time.
Even a company with a stock price as out of proportion to its actual value as Tesla can't go on under-delivering forever, but they do seem determined to see just how long exactly they can stretch things. Meanwhile, you all go on believing they're the savior of the world or whatever because obviously companies that have been doing engineering and manufacturing for over a hundred years can't possibly know crap that the brilliant Silicon Valley crowd doesn't, right?
Re: How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 04:59 · Score: 0

Reviews are consistently positive on their products.
So what? Reviews are, guess what, more hype. Besides, they haven't made a mass market anything and so people who review their products fall into three categories:
1. Paid shills (not necessarily Tesla shills--Wall Street has a vested interest in you buying their stock after all)
2. Unpaid shills vying for ad revenue from hits or maybe free stuff from the companies they never say anything bad about
3. This is the important one: People with the money to buy their products generally are going to have the typical fragile large egos that go along with such a purchase. Meaning that if the car is disappointing, then I made a bad choice. If I made a bad choice, then I'm not the smartest, most attractive person in the world. If I'm not the smartest, most attractive person in the world then something's wrong with me, and that can't possibly be, therefore the car must be awesome.
That third thing is the basis of pretty much all marketing, but it's most effective/obvious on narcissists, and we have more of those than I'd ever have thought possible.
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 05:26 · Score: 0

Sounds a lot like typical management who collectively believe engineers, developers, support, trainers, testers etc are just interchangeable and easily replaceable.
But when key people leave on their own or get swept away in a cost-reduction layoff, they are rarely every replaced.
Re:How is this different ... by drinkypoo · 2018-01-27 05:41 · Score: 1

Most automakers run on new models, not merely hype. Studies have clearly shown that consumers prefer to buy the latest thing, even if it's not necessarily the best. Of course, automotive technology moves rapidly enough that the latest thing often is better, so there is that. Tesla is running on the promise of delivering things, not on actually delivering things. Maybe they'll get production up soon and change that, but the fact is that only a tiny minority of Tesla fans actually have a Tesla at this point.

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"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 06:27 · Score: 0

It's different because most companies realise this and try to underpromise and overdeliver publicly.
It's different because Tesla is operating on hype. Every other car company teases designs, but they only make actual claims about performance and scheduling when they are absolutely sure they can meet them. Tesla can lose money and the stock goes up, traditional automakers have to turn a profit just to keep it flat. But Tesla will die just as soon as the buzz does. If all the unpaid Tesla promoters like Rei stopped doing the work they're doing on behalf of Tesla, the company would fold up like a cheap magazine, because Wall Street would stop rewarding them for losing money.
If Wall Street didn't have it's head firmly planted in it's ass, companies like Facebook and Snapchat would have never gone public. Stop pretending "success" is defined by profit these days because it isn't, and Tesla sure as shit isn't the only company operating this way.
Re: How is this different ... by Solandri · 2018-01-27 07:43 · Score: 4, Interesting

Tesla is deliberately delaying the Model 3. CARB (California Air Resources Board) created a ZEV mandate. A certain percentage of each car company's sales have to be ZEV - zero emissions vehicles. Right now that's almost entirely EVs (Toyota has a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle on the market). The percentage increases each year - the details are a bit complex but bottom line it's about 2% for 2018. If an automaker fails to reach the required percentage, they have to buy ZEV credits from an automaker which exceeded it. If they fail that too, they are banned from selling cars in California and the approx dozen states which automatically adopt CARB's guidelines. That's about 1/3 of the U.S. by population.

Since Tesla produces only EVs, they always have excess ZEV credits. Part of their finances is selling those ZEV credits. But the closer the other automakers come to meeting their ZEV requirement in a year, the lower the price for ZEV credits. So if Tesla produces too many EVs in a year in which other car companies sold enough of their own EVs, they get little to nothing for their ZEV credits, and they have to bear a larger fraction of the Tesla 3 production cost themselves.

You can tell how well EVs are selling by how good the discounts are at the end of the year. 2015, sales were really poor (relative to the ZEV mandate that year) and there were incredible discounts on EVs (in California - the only state where CARB counts sales/leases). Dec 2015 I almost picked up a 3-year lease on an e-Golf for $79/mo, no money down (there was also a $49/mo with $1500 down offer, but that's more money overall). The EV deals in late 2017 were close to nonexistent, which is a pretty good indicator that the automakers were hitting their ZEV mandate percentages. That means there wasn't much of a market for ZEV credits in 2017, which meant Tesla had to delay Model 3 production to try to push some of those credits into 2018. And that's exactly what they did.

The problem for Tesla is that they set the pre-order price of their EVs based on assumptions for how much they'll receive for selling the ZEV credits. If the other automakers consistently hit their ZEV percentage every year (or come close to it), Tesla is in a world of trouble - all those Tesla 3 pre-orders could have been "sold" for less than what it cost to manufacture because they'd assumed selling the ZEV credit would've made up the difference. So paradoxically, the better EVs sell, the worse off Tesla is financially.
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 08:11 · Score: 1

When some company makes an electric car with the range of the model S *AND* has charging stations available so you can drive everywhere without range anxiety - then and only then will Tesla have real competition. Tesla's killer app is the charging infrastructure - not the cars.
Re: How is this different ... by orlanz · 2018-01-27 09:05 · Score: 1

Automakers not hyping things up is actually new to the industry. One they learned from Honda & Toyota. It wasn't until "car salesman" became worse than "snake oil salesman" that they started toning down. And it took 10 years of being beat the shit out of by Japanese car makers that they really became humble.
When Ford made their first few years worth of mass assembled cars, they were sold with missing windows, door locks, horns, etc. They just told the buyer to bring it back later for repair. Again it took the Japanese to show that proper QA paid for itself and left customers happier.
Car makers no longer over promise because there is nothing but the cars to talk about. And if they say something out of line, it could lead to lawsuits. But look at the PR spin they do like any other company when looking for concessions for a new factory or closing one.
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 13:14 · Score: 0

None of those are dependent on their survival by a single product like Tesla are. what you need to be comparing is electronics manufacturers, phones, auto makers etc.
Re:How is this different ... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 18:35 · Score: 1

None of those are dependent on their survival by a single product like Tesla are
I'm pretty sure that at least Microsoft and the nuclear power companies actually are. OTOH, if Tesla's cars get eventually beaten by competition, Tesla can still become a great solar+storage company.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:How is this different ... by nnull · 2018-01-27 20:14 · Score: 1

"What is a SMA connector, was the response. After explaining it a couple of days went by and they called me up and explained that the guy who knows how to do that quit the company so it would be better if we changed the design for them to make it work."
That's because a lot of companies basically ride on the back of one person that they abuse to hell. Usually, it's the only person there that can keep said company alive. From the owners to all the management depending on this one person. I know, because I see it everyday with vendors and clients. What actually surprises me, or rather bothers me, is how come these employees don't value themselves higher and demand more from their employers?
Re:How is this different ... by nnull · 2018-01-27 20:31 · Score: 1

"I think it's getting worse. We seem to have a growth in the amount of complexity of things individually and an increasing number of them, combined with a corresponding lack of investment in training."
It sure is getting worse. Every employee I get has serious lack of training in everything. A lot of companies have thrown training out the door because of "costs", but not realizing that it's making our labor pool worse overall and increasing costs overall upon everyone. I train my employees, but I'm just a tiny tiny fraction. Everyone needs to get on board or we're in serious trouble. Quality Assurance and control is suffering, management, process, etc, is all falling apart. And the ridiculousness of some companies pushing training expenses on to their employees where we've created ridiculous and meaningless new fields in engineering or whatever to get your 4 year degree from (Can't wait for the 4 year degree to use a spreadsheet), when a lot of companies used to offer these training courses in the first place.
Re:How is this different ... by nnull · 2018-01-27 20:42 · Score: 1

It's sad that I have similar stories.
Re:How is this different ... by swb · 2018-01-27 21:36 · Score: 1

So much skill development is just kind of dumped on employees who its assumed will just pick it up on their own. Some of that is OK, but there's a point (reached quickly) where it's just not practical or effective -- the technology is too complex to simulate/emulate without expensive hardware, too often there's little practical knowledge gained without practical production situations and workloads, way too much "certification" which just winds up being an exercise in memorizing a vendor's marketing buzzwords and trivia. Don't even get me started on 4 year degrees.
Then (at least in IT) there's the palpable decline in software quality combined with a dramatic increase in technology complexity. It's ironic, because without some of complex automation software the technology is too complex to operate manually but the software is low enough quality that the whole thing is unstable.
Re:How is this different ... by thegarbz · 2018-01-27 21:59 · Score: 1

It's different because most companies realise this and try to underpromise and overdeliver publicly.
Wow, you've never read a corporate statement that wasn't tweeted by a CEO. Maybe you should actually read a company's quarterly report at some point and you'll realise that there's not a single company out there that underpromises anything.
Re:How is this different ... by LynnwoodRooster · 2018-01-27 23:37 · Score: 1

With Microsoft , you're quite wrong. Of the tech giants, Microsoft is by far the most diverse in terms of revenue.

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Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Re:How is this different ... by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 02:04 · Score: 0

Do get tired continuously moving those goal posts?

Film at 11 by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:22 · Score: 0, Flamebait

Tesla doesn't have their shit together and lies about it. What else is new?

How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:22 · Score: 0, Insightful

There were problems

There are problems

There will be problems

Whining about problems will not make the problems go away - solving them, on the other hand, do !

Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:32 · Score: 1

What can I, AC, do? Maybe write a letter of encouragement
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by arth1 · 2018-01-27 01:34 · Score: 0

Whining about problems will not make the problems go away
On the contrary, squeaky wheel gets the grease.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-27 01:36 · Score: 5, Informative

Rather...

This is an extremely misinformed and misleading article. To be absolutely clear, we are on track with the previous projections for achieving increased Model 3 production rates that we provided earlier this month. As has been well documented, until we reach full production, by definition some elements of the production process will be more manual. This is something Elon and JB discussed extensively on our Q3 earnings call, and it has no impact on the quality or safety of the batteries we’re producing. As noted in our Q4 deliveries release, during the fourth quarter, “we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter.”
Furthermore, as is often the case in manufacturing, some parts of the production process require the expertise of employees with engineering or manufacturing experience, and others don’t. We’ve created thousands of new high-quality jobs in Nevada in recent years. As we continue to expand Gigafactory 1 and ramp Model 3 production, we’ve been able to teach new skills to thousands of new employees, many of whom had no manufacturing experience prior to joining Tesla. New hires on the module line receive extensive training, including safety training, and learn about the importance of proper cell-to-cell spacing so they can identify such issues in the production process. More broadly, battery production – and the module line in particular – is overseen by our top engineering talent, and many of Tesla’s most senior leadership.
Finally, the implication that Tesla would ever deliver a car with a hazardous battery is absolutely inaccurate, contrary to all evidence, and detached from reality. It is irresponsible to suggest as much based on unnamed, anonymous sources who have provided no such evidence and who obviously do not have a complete understanding of the extensive testing that all batteries in Tesla vehicles are subjected to. As with Model S and Model X, which have well demonstrated safety records, we maintain a rigorous approach to quality and process control for the Model 3 battery. Even more importantly, to our knowledge, there has not been a single safety concern in the field related to Model 3 batteries at any point over the six months of Model 3 production.
As for the assertion about cells touching in Model 3 batteries, this is extremely misleading and displays a complete lack of basic knowledge about how our batteries work. Every battery in a Tesla vehicle has thousands of cells, the vast majority of which are at the same voltage potential as neighboring cells. Hypothetically, even if two cells of the same voltage potential were touching, there would be absolutely zero impact, safety or otherwise – it would be as if two neutral pieces of metal touched. Despite this fact, all Model 3 battery modules’ cell positions are measured twice in manufacturing to verify process control and quality of outgoing parts. Conversely, if at any point in the production process cells are touching at different voltage potentials, they cannot be electrically interconnected. Over the course of the production process, we conduct three different tests to ensure the right number of cells are electrically connected in Model 3 modules. Additionally, the long term reliability of cell position is something validated through testing, including shock and vibration, and high temperature and humidity testing, as well as thermal cycling endurance testing throughout design and via sampling in production. All of this testing is designed to prevent touching cells from being installed in any of our vehicles, including Model 3. Finally, the safety aspects of our module design would continue to function even in the presence of touching cells, so the concerns raised are further unfounded.
These false claims are being made even tho

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Applehu+Akbar · 2018-01-27 01:39 · Score: 1, Offtopic

What can I, AC, do? Maybe write a letter of encouragement
Write a troll post about Trump, or a reaction to someone else's troll post about Trump. This has been scientifically determined to solve all problems.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Hognoxious · 2018-01-27 01:44 · Score: 5, Funny

What can I, AC, do?

You could try to rectify the situation.

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Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:47 · Score: 0

On the contrary, squeaky wheel gets the grease.
There is too much grease in U.S. politics. To put it to good use, they made the squeakiest wheel available far and wide president.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 01:59 · Score: 1

In Washington, D.C., I presume?

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by NEDHead · 2018-01-27 02:17 · Score: 1

That's one way to go
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Entropius · 2018-01-27 02:24 · Score: 1

If they're batteries they're already DC. Maybe that's the issue?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:28 · Score: 2, Insightful

On track is PR BS. They are way behind waht they promised. They might eventually get there many years late if ever. In four years Tesla will have literally millions of competitive vehicles from manufacturers that know what they are doing.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 03:37 · Score: 1

They are way behind waht they promised. They might eventually get there many years late if ever.

That makes no sense. Why would it take many years? This is a delay of at most several months. In the long run, it's immaterial. Look at the computer industry; would it have been much different if the IBM PC has been introduced a year later? I don't see that happening.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Hognoxious · 2018-01-27 03:50 · Score: 2

would it have been much different if the IBM PC has been introduced a year later?
Possibly. In that time an alternate standard could have become entrenched.

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Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 03:56 · Score: 0

OS/2
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Hognoxious · 2018-01-27 04:02 · Score: 1

That would be invertunate.

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Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by vtcodger · 2018-01-27 04:40 · Score: 4, Interesting

The problem isn't that the factory has teething problems. It is that based, on its quarterly reports and other public data, Tesla is on its way to running out of money. It really looks from outside like Tesla needs to start delivering a lot of Model 3s and making a reasonable profit on each if it expects to stay out of bankruptcy court.
Conventional wisdom seems to be that without some significant revenue stream, Tesla doesn't have enough cash and locked in credit to make it through 2018. Google turns up a plethora of articles on this. Are they accurate? How the hell would **I** know?

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You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-27 05:18 · Score: 0

On track is PR BS. They are way behind waht they promised.

...on track with the previous projections for achieving increased Model 3 production rates that we provided earlier this month

To reiterate: rates provided earlier this month (the Q4 call). Not rates projected 1 1/2 years ago.

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 05:48 · Score: 1

Mac took three more years, and was sufficiently different that the IBM PC extension card market would have helped IBM PC succeed anyway.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 05:59 · Score: 0

Sometimes the squeaky wheel gets replaced.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by arth1 · 2018-01-27 06:12 · Score: 1

Sometimes the squeaky wheel gets replaced.
This is true, but when as big as the Gigafactory, chances are that lubing it will be tried first. Likely both by Musk and politicians.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 06:21 · Score: 1

You must be a Project Manager.
I remember quite distinctly you arguing nonstop for hours about how the Model 3 production schedule was going to be on track by December waay back in October. When the production schedule was months behind in December you argued that there was a new production schedule, they were only one month behind, and the old promises didn't matter anymore anyway.
Now they have failed yet again, the rate of production increase as compared to all their promises and estimates has been falling, and the rate of which they produce new estimates is down to every two or three weeks and you are still arguing.
"Ignore my promise to get to work at 9:00 today from last week, for at 8:59 this morning I made a new promise to start by noon and it is still 11:20, so I actually might be early."
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by dryeo · 2018-01-27 07:14 · Score: 1

Apple could have taken a different path, released a non-crippled Apple IIx. Would have meant Jobs not being such a twit though, with his "users don't need colour" and "users don't need expansion options"

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-27 07:23 · Score: 1

I remember quite distinctly you arguing nonstop for hours about how the Model 3 production schedule was going to be on track by December waay back in October.
I searched my posts and don't see anything, ever about Tesla becoming "on track" with the original (aka, accelerated) "5k per week by December" timeline.

When the production schedule was months behind in December you argued that there was a new production schedule, they were only one month behind, and the old promises didn't matter anymore anyway
Has there been another person posting with my name: Here's literally all of my posts about the Model 3 schedule between November and my first post in January:
17 nov:
"if you're asking how production is going: spyshots and VIN tracking currently suggests that they're up to about 100 per week."
Model 3 has been launched since July. They're about 3 months behind schedule, with about 1k produced so far.
Funny, could you boldface for me where he promises in that statement a $35k Model 3 in 2017? ... (Re: "No you will not see a single $35,000 model manufactured by January.") So to you, "a couple months" means "under 1 1/2 months". Interesting.
Tesla always delivers. Almost always somewhat late**, but they do deliver. ** - Model 3 actually broke this trend by launching on time (on a schedule that they had accelerated, at that) - but their scaleup hit a number of snags and ended up 3 months behind, so, Tesla is still clearly Tesla ;)
25 nov:
Model 3 is about 3 months behind schedule. Oooh, stop the presses
First off, the original plan for the Model 3 was for production to begin at "some point" in 2017; it was moved forward to July. Secondly: we were not discussing schedules. Tesla is frequently late; Model 3 being 3 months behind schedule should surprise nobody.
2 dec:
The production curve lagged a few months, but now it's following the S curve nicely (over twice as many produced in November as October). Highest VIN spotted in the wild so far (just today) is over 1900.
4 jan:
The fact alone that they're now up to over 1000 Model 3s per week is in and of itself ~$8m per day in extra revenue.
Noticing something: I reported on the VIN tracking (and compare those numbers to the current ones - over 6000 spotted in the wild and over 10000 registered - and talked about how they were ~3 months behind schedule, not 1, never once saying that they were going to "catch up" with the original schedule. Quite to the opposite, I repeatedly pointed out that Tesla is always late, which would make for quite a contradictory argument if I was also - in your mind - claiming that they were going to "catch up" to the original schedule.
So please, if I have a doppelganger on Slashdot, please point me to them. Otherwise, you can cut it with the straw men.

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-27 09:24 · Score: 2

, Tesla is on its way to running out of money.
TTAC called, they'd like you to write a column for their Tesla Deathwach 7 years ago. ;) The "Tesla is going to run out of money" nonsense that shorts at Seeking Alpha love is tiring (but hey, if you buy into it, by all means short them!). It's premised on the concept of no additional cash streams (Semi and Roadster reservations are basically no-interest several-year loans), no improvements in the Tesla Energy division orders (which by all measures seem to be taking off after the success of the Australia battery), no revenue from the solar gigafactory (which is now starting deliveries), and they pretend that there's no revenue from Model 3, despite the fact that they're now up to 1k per week, reporting (as of today) to be on track to 2,5k by the end of Q1 and 5k by the end of Q2, and that Model 3 purchase prices / margins are frontended by delivering only the premium versions first.
The shorts' math is laughably bad. Which is why they keep losing money over and over on TSLA. They first really started hyping that argument in early November, when the stock was down to ~$300. It's at $343 right now. Care to lose your money like they have?

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Jeremi · 2018-01-27 13:28 · Score: 1

Would have meant Jobs not being such a twit though, with his "users don't need colour" and "users don't need expansion options"
Jobs being a twit is the one condition that remains constant across all possible universes in the multiverse, so Apple's fate was sealed.

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I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by drsquare · 2018-01-27 13:49 · Score: 1

despite the fact that they're now up to 1k per week,

Nope, that was an extrapolation from a couple of days productivity. And who knows if even that was right considering how much bullshit Elon Musk spouts.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-27 14:20 · Score: 1

It's no extrapolation. You really think that nobody is tracking deliveries but Tesla?

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by dryeo · 2018-01-27 15:09 · Score: 1

What could have varied was how much influence he had.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
Re: How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 15:38 · Score: 0

The people at Apple not making the Mac were working on the Apple 3, which bombed severely.
Apple's early success is due to the first spreadsheet, Visicalc, only running on the Apple 2. Businessmen would go into a computer shop to order a 'Visicalc machine' which incidentally was an Apple 2. When the IBM PC came out and ran Visicalc on PC-DOS, the Apple 2 was doomed. Apple's counter was the Apple 3, designed to be a more business oriented (more expensive, heavy duty, etc.) machine which they ultimately proved incapable of producing.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by rtb61 · 2018-01-27 16:24 · Score: 1

I think some one is working hard at buying Tesla hence the drive to make it cheaper, a really aggressive drive. It's so dirty it smells of M$ but it could be more than one, all looking to drive down Tesla stock price to buy it up on the cheap.

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Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Gavagai80 · 2018-01-27 16:43 · Score: 1

A company with a market cap like Tesla's couldn't run out of money if they ran around frantically torching cash all night. All they have to do is sell a little equity when they need to.

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Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 18:38 · Score: 0

The lady doth protest too much.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 02:01 · Score: 0

It’s almost the end of January and a single $35,000 model 3 has yet to be manufactured.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-28 04:10 · Score: 1

Which I was saying in the linked post is something that was never promised by Tesla.

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 09:59 · Score: 0

As long as somebody is around to buy it. Unfortunately, there are lots of people buying into the reality distortion field that Musk projects. Telsa's last offering wasn't stock but $1.8 billion in the senior notes in August at a yield of 5.300%. That is considered junk territory, which is why the yield is high. The deal was the first pure bond deal by Tesla, which has in past issued convertible bonds, which can be converted into equity and benefit from stock gains. These have been trading underwater a week after their offering and have never recovered.
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 18:15 · Score: 0

“In 2013, design chief Franz von Holzhausen said that the Model 3 will "be an Audi A4, BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class type of vehicle that will offer everything: range, affordability, and performance" that is targeted toward the mass market.”
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-29 04:32 · Score: 1

I don't see anything in your post that contradicts the above in any way, shape, or form. Nowhere did Tesla say "A 35k Model 3 in January". Ever. The plan has always been to start out with delivering versions with the long range battery and premium upgrades first, and only moving to the non-premium versions as they worked their way down the waiting list.
Model 3's pricing is highly competitive with the 3-Series, A4 and C-Class. The Model 3 LR for example is as fast as a 340i, but costs $5k less without accounting for tax credits or energy savings. The premium upgrades package is $5k, but some of things that are standard on the Model 3 are premium upgrades on the BMW, let alone what you get with PUP on the Model 3.

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?
Re:How many factories do not have any problem? by Rei · 2018-01-29 04:34 · Score: 1

While see great things for TSLA, I'd never buy their bonds. The stock has all the upsides; the bonds have all the risk.

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How come things that happen to stupid people keep happening to me?

Re:Anybody surprised? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 01:25 · Score: 0, Offtopic

No, I'm not surprised that you're making blanket comments on things you have little in-depth information about. It's actually quite commonplace on the Internet.

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Ezekiel 23:20

Re: This would not be a problem if it were on Mars by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:30 · Score: 0

I can see the ins and outs of it

Creating a product only half the battle by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:35 · Score: 3, Informative

I think maybe the worst part of Tesla is that nobody knows how to make a lot of vehicles efficiently and be profitable. Critics have said all along that Tesla needed someone in manufacturing that knew how to build cars. Instead Musk rejected this ideal and went it alone and it shows. Obviously critics said the real test for Tesla would be how it handle's the Model 3 production schedule. Its very clear from reports that they bit off more then they could chew.

Re:Creating a product only half the battle by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 01:43 · Score: 4, Insightful

And how would employing more people who know how to build cars in particular help overcome problems with building a battery factory? I mean, besides their generic manufacturing experience.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:Creating a product only half the battle by Hognoxious · 2018-01-27 02:00 · Score: 1

I mean, besides their generic manufacturing experience.

That alone would be quite an improvement compared to the present situation.

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Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Re:Creating a product only half the battle by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 03:06 · Score: 0

You mean how would hiring electrical, mechanical, and industrial engineers help improve a simple battery?
Simple fact is that no competent engineer wants to live or work in Nebraska.
Re:Creating a product only half the battle by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 03:17 · Score: 1

Probably manufacturing engineers would be more useful?

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:Creating a product only half the battle by vtcodger · 2018-01-27 09:32 · Score: 1

Wasn't Panasonic invited to the gigafactory party to provide the manufacturing expertise that Tesla lacks? I'm not sure Panasonic knows much about cars, but when it comes to making batteries, this is not their first rodeo.

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You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Re:Creating a product only half the battle by drsquare · 2018-01-27 14:02 · Score: 1

They can't make cars either. The few Model 3s coming off the line look like they've been assembled with sledge hammers, and the Model X is the least reliable car on the market. Their cars are riddled with problems that buyers accept because they're fanboys. Why even promise you're going to sell cars when you don't even know if you can make the batteries?
Re:Creating a product only half the battle by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 18:38 · Score: 1

Presumably, since Tesla was building its own battery packs but Panasonic was providing the cells, the responsibilities are still similar, both parties contributed what they were good at.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:Creating a product only half the battle by nnull · 2018-01-27 20:49 · Score: 1

But that would mean they would have to be paid a decent wage to actually keep them there. No, Jorge can take care of everything, he's very good considering the wage we pay him, don't worry.

3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:46 · Score: 0

The funny thing is, the cells are 18650's, the kind you find in every laptop and rechargable gadget around the world. Just strung together with Tesla soup coolant, and cooling pipes between them.

18650's touching are not an issue, unless it causes a hot spot beyond limits. Just teething problems that will be solved.

Can I point out that patents should only be awarded to people who actually make the products, because if you haven't made the product, you haven't solved the real world problems with it. In particular IBM's 'Watson' self driving and electric car patents should never have been issued.

Re: 3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 01:57 · Score: 0

But how then can a brilliant physicist patent new designs for a particle accelerator or fusion reactor, when the cost to build one must be shared by several nations?
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:02 · Score: 0

Can I point out that patents should only be awarded to people who actually make the products, because if you haven't made the product, you haven't solved the real world problems with it. In particular IBM's 'Watson' self driving and electric car patents should never have been issued.
LOL, any moron can read the recipe (patent) to create the food dish (product). It's creating the recipe (patent) that is hard and should be rewarded, not just the grunt labor creating the product. But what else can you expect from /.ers, most of whom loudly promote stealing IP.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 02:03 · Score: 5, Informative

The funny thing is, the cells are 18650's
No, they're not. Chances are that the switch to a cell size that's more efficient in the long term has created problems for them in the short term.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by fubarrr · 2018-01-27 02:28 · Score: 1, Interesting

Not so short term I'll say as somebody with some background in the issue.
Tesla uses many small cells that all require a lot of cooling, weight a lot, cost a lot, and require expensive load balancing circuits.
With them making them just a bit bigger, and getting miniscule cell count reduction, just makes the issue a bit smaller, while bringing up new ones: need for custom tooling, being denied advantage of COTS technology, impossibility of buying cells on open market if your own assembly line goes belly up for some reason, bigger cells have higher risk of overheating, bigger cells will require more cooling, if the cell goes boom, the boom will be bigger, necessitating more massive containment structures.
Compare it with Chinese cars with huge brick cells. They have 12 to 64 of them per car. They are air cooled. They use plastic casing. They have bigger internal conductors that use copper, that have low ohmic heating. Lower cell count makes cell balancing easier and more efficient. While the cell chemistry Chinese use is less energetic, they do get MUCH better energy density because they are bigger. Because they use less energetic chemistry, cells are less likely to go boom by themselves. Because they use bigger , flexible cathodes, cathode swelling is much less of an issue. Lower cathode swelling, greatly extends the cell lifetime.
Chinese simply have better batteries.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 02:52 · Score: 4, Interesting

So you're saying that the Chinese have simply avoided high power density. Well in that case it's rather obvious that many of those things that Tesla is doing don't worry the Chinese. But I'm not sure why you have to contradict yourself on a space of two paragraphs ("small cells all require a lot of cooling ... bigger cells will require more cooling ... huge brick cells are air cooled"). And why would copper conductors be necessarily better when copper is heavy per unit of conductivity? And why do you think Tesla doesn't use massive internal conductors already? And how come that cathode swelling is suddenly such an issue for lifetime but suddenly thermal control isn't? Mind you, data shows that battery lifetime already isn't an issue even for the older and presumably worse Tesla packs, why should it be a worry in the future? And that's with the smaller cylindrical cells already, which you said are worse, not with the bigger ones.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 03:26 · Score: 0

Amazing. Everything you just said is wrong.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 04:34 · Score: 1

euh, aren't you full of shit. Most EV cars started out the way of using big cells. They switched to smaller cells exactly because of cooling. There's a reason the first generation Nissan Leaf had a lot of angry customers in hot climates. Bigger cells heat up much faster under load because they have much less surface area compared to volume. It's basic physics.
Also these are COTS battery cells and is probably the reason Tesla started this route in the first place. Tesla increased the size for density purposes, but you can find the exact same cell size from I think Samsung and Panasonic that Tesla is using in the model 3 under different product names.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 05:00 · Score: 1

It's probably also the reason why they stayed with a small-ish format. You can sell these cells for consumer electronics, too; with large cells, your potential shrinks.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Ryanrule · 2018-01-27 06:27 · Score: 1

lol fuck off shill
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 08:03 · Score: 0

electrek.co

18650=18mmX65mm
Model 3 cell new form factor=21mmX70mm
Is this the newly discovered "Musk quantum dimensional effect" (patent pending as well as IgNoble prize pending) where a 17% increase in diameter and 6% increase in length such that

The bigger cells enabled Tesla to optimize volumetric energy density.
?
Do explain in your uniquely insightful prose the fundamental principle of the "Musk quantum dimensional effect".
Also doesn't this all but double the tooling for both cell sizes, with Model 3 being different than Model S/X?
Perhaps Musk need to go back to his roots as an economics major, rather than dabbling in "quantum dimensional effects".
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 09:55 · Score: 0

NO!! Model 3 has the new 2170 cells.
2170 cells are a more advanced cell and larger and the production line must be optimized for the new cell at volume production. Nothing to see here but normal fits and misses as a new production line is in the optimization stage. This is done very carefully at Tesla and it takes time to revise and qualify new machinery. Panasonic is rightfully involved in this.
Of course if Tesla has had a battery breakthrough it would also slow things down taking it into production.
If Tesla gets the production line humming then it may keep the larger battery in all vehicles and allow the low range vehicles to be upgraded over the air for a price - an awesome feature.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 13:59 · Score: 1

You can sell these cells for consumer electronics, too; with large cells, your potential shrinks.
Not really. Most consumer electronics haven't used round cells for well over a decade. The energy density (by volume) of round cells is just too low, so pretty much the entire industry uses lithium polymer soft packs now. But for automobiles, that doesn't matter as much, and round cells are cheap because nobody wants them anymore, so why not? :-)

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 14:14 · Score: 1

There's nothing magic about this. The reason for the higher density is that some portion of each cell is necessarily used for the casing to provide physical support for the structures inside. The bigger the cell (in either direction), the lower the percentage of its volume that is wasted on the casing, and thus, the higher the cell's energy density is (by volume), assuming all else is equal.

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 16:14 · Score: 0

The bigger the cell (in either direction), the lower the percentage of its volume that is wasted on the casing
Except the bigger form factor generally require a commensurate increase in casing thickness to attain the same structural strength (unless you propose that the AT&T Cowboys Stadium use the same tent poles for structure as you used on your camping trip).

the higher the cell's energy density is (by volume)
marijuana legal in your state already?
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2018-01-27 18:43 · Score: 1

So power tools use LiPol soft packs now? And one might debate the "cheap" designation. If they're so cheap, why is it that electric cars are still expensive? Clearly they're still not cheap enough.

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Ezekiel 23:20
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by fubarrr · 2018-01-27 19:19 · Score: 1

I mean, Chinese use cheap and simple air cooling, while Tesla has to do forced liquid cooling which is whack a lot more expensive. They have to do this because they use cylindrical cells with tiny internal conductors and very energetic chemistry that is thermal runaway prone.
With brick cells where the membrane zigzags through the cell, the penalty for using thicker contact plates for anode and cathode is not as big as for cylindrical cells where you are forced to use copper foil of equivalent area to anode and cathode simply by the geometry, and need to have enough space left to accommodate for swelling.
About bigger cells requiring more or less cooling, the matter is not about that, but more about the chemistry used. Chinese use phosphate cathodes, that are more chemically stable than manganese or cobalt, and higher current limiting characteristic (no runaway), and thus they can run them hotter, despite them having lower surface area to volume ratio. There are other subtle moments there.
And finally about battery life: Tesla gets more battery life by simply using patently huge batteries that are extensively balanced and conditioned through the lifetime. They do not fully charge or discharge the pack, and to accommodate that they have to put a lot more extra cells.
Chinese have smaller, and much lighter packs that can be charged and discharged near completely without cell lifetime reduction. Smaller battery pack is faster to charge, and when it comes to replacement, it is cheaper to replace. And we should mention that they are much lighter, Chinese make their EVs from steel, and steel manage to come out being lighter than aluminium Teslas.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by fubarrr · 2018-01-27 19:27 · Score: 1

Leaf used manganese cathode pouch cells with a lot of organics inside, those were not much different from ones stuffed into thin laptops these days. The do degrade and go boom from heat. Phosphate/graphite cells on the other hand can be heated red hot, without going unto thermal runaway.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by fubarrr · 2018-01-27 19:29 · Score: 1

Because of no competition, there are Chinese EVs that do beat Teslas on individual metrics, but yet to beat them on overall performance. When they will do, prepare for pricefall.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 20:26 · Score: 1

So power tools use LiPol soft packs now?
Wait... power tools are considered electronics now? Did I miss a meeting?

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 20:28 · Score: 1

Except the bigger form factor generally require a commensurate increase in casing thickness to attain the same structural strength (unless you propose that the AT&T Cowboys Stadium use the same tent poles for structure as you used on your camping trip).
Yes, but that relationship isn't strictly linear with respect to volume even for cells designed for general consumer use:
AAA battery: 3.9 mL, 1.3-1.8 wH
D cell: 55.8 mL (14.3x), 18-27 wH (13.85-15x)
It's close, but IIRC, bigger cells typically have slightly more power per unit volume than smaller ones, assuming all else is equal. And again, that's for consumer-grade cells, designed to be handled roughly by humans.
For a cell that's going to sit inside a permanent pack for the rest of its life and won't be individually handled after assembly, the need for any sort of mechanical strength is even less. After all, most modern personal electronic devices these days use thin, soft pouches for their batteries, because the device itself provides adequate protection against damage by itself, without the need for any sort of shell at all. :-)
Besides, AFAIK, Musk didn't say that the batteries were more dense purely because the cells were bigger. He just said that they were bigger and more dense. Technology improves. :-)

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 04:14 · Score: 0

Hey dude, you might want to revisit your basic math & physics:

Yes, but that relationship isn't strictly linear with respect to volume
a commensurate increase in thickness results in ZERO change in ratio of active volume to total volume.

inane volume data of AAA,D
wasted space

bigger cells typically have slightly more power per unit volume than smaller ones
at least try to get power and energy right

For a cell that's going to sit inside a permanent pack for the rest of its life and won't be individually handled after assembly, the need for any sort of mechanical strength is even less
has no relevance on the fact that larger form factor require thicker casing

Besides, AFAIK, Musk didn't say that the batteries were more dense purely because the cells were bigger. He just said that they were bigger and more dense. Technology improves. :-)
You just conceded all your "casing" gobbledygook were bullshit.
Curious why the actual manufacturer Panasonic had not claim any "technology improves"? You don't think Musk is being a lying sack of shit again do you?
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by dgatwood · 2018-01-29 06:43 · Score: 1

Hey dude, you might want to revisit your basic math & physics:
You might want to revisit your basic reading comprehension.

Yes, but that relationship isn't strictly linear with respect to volume
a commensurate increase in thickness results in ZERO change in ratio of active volume to total volume.
You're the one claiming that the ratio of active volume to total volume must be constant. I said that this isn't true, and proved it with real-world examples of hardware where your claims don't hold true even in the consumer space.

inane volume data of AAA,D
wasted space
Obviously wasted, because you didn't bother to read it.

bigger cells typically have slightly more power per unit volume than smaller ones
at least try to get power and energy right
Meh. Your pedantry doesn't impress me.

For a cell that's going to sit inside a permanent pack for the rest of its life and won't be individually handled after assembly, the need for any sort of mechanical strength is even less
has no relevance on the fact that larger form factor require thicker casing
Repeating inaccurate information over and over doesn't make it true.

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:3.7 volt 18650's by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-29 08:39 · Score: 0

Wew dude, took you 26 hours to compose this pathetic weak sauce comeback?
Dude you serious?
Screws up power and energy.
Instead of simple my bad (wasn't a big deal dude...just sayin'), comes back with micropenis attitude (which only proves you have a tiny penis...dude).
Just for shits and giggles, what is the difference between power and energy?
Claims battery doesn't need mechanical support...this is not your fucking cellphone moron.
The battery is bolted to a chassis that bounce around for hours everyday.

Doesn't sound so bad... by BobSteinVisiBone · 2018-01-27 01:56 · Score: 2

...as long as Gigafactory batteries are not composed *of* Panasonic employees.

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Bob Stein, http://bobste.in

Re:Doesn't sound so bad... by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 14:15 · Score: 1

Tesla Model Soylent 3 is people!

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

The first one is always the hardest. by Gravis+Zero · 2018-01-27 01:59 · Score: 1

Building the first factory is the hardest part about building factories. Once you've built it, you can build 200 more just like it in a fraction of the time.

In the meantime a worker complains about not being replaced by a machine?

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Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.

Re:The first one is always the hardest. by drinkypoo · 2018-01-27 02:08 · Score: 5, Insightful

Building the first factory is the hardest part about building factories. Once you've built it, you can build 200 more just like it in a fraction of the time.
Except nobody builds lots of factories all the same. Automakers for example build different factories with different lines to produce different vehicles. The building is not the interesting part, the production line is. And the production lines are different for each vehicle. Also, by the time you've got the first factory completed, new techniques have been developed, and new equipment has hit the market. Maybe you've been just welding all your cars together, and now you're starting to use structural adhesives. Now you're going to change the line again.

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"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Re: The first one is always the hardest. by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:48 · Score: 0

They build multiple mods all the time. GM has copy lines in Tonawanda, Spring Hill, Ramos, Romulus... Ford has Sharonville, Livonia, Van Dyke... And I can confirm the first is the worst.
Re:The first one is always the hardest. by Khyber · 2018-01-27 04:27 · Score: 1

"Once you've built it, you can build 200 more just like it in a fraction of the time."
I can tell you've never done a plant opening or shut down, let alone worked in any sort of actual construction. None of what you said is even remotely true.
Go take your ass to Galveston and do a few plant openings. Let's see that 'fraction of the time' you're talking about.
Protip: We won't see it ever.

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Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
Re:The first one is always the hardest. by PPH · 2018-01-27 05:48 · Score: 1

From the point of view of the batteries alone, manufacturing 18650s should be a solved problem. Particularly with Panasonic in the loop.

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Have gnu, will travel.
Re:The first one is always the hardest. by Gravis+Zero · 2018-01-27 07:39 · Score: 1

Except nobody builds lots of factories all the same.
Battery makers do.

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Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
Re:The first one is always the hardest. by drinkypoo · 2018-01-27 10:26 · Score: 1

Except nobody builds lots of factories all the same.
Battery makers do.
Cell makers do, maybe. MAYBE. That's assuming that manufacturing techniques haven't improved since the last time they built a factory. But people making actual batteries are going to be making new and different production lines just like automakers are — when we're talking about EV batteries. The battery packs are changing rapidly enough that they will require different assembly techniques. And new battery chemistries are coming faster than ever before, now. Some chemistries are baked, some aren't. Some require long and energy-intensive conditioning periods with multiple charge cycles, some don't. And new factories are not built all that often.
The world does not stand still.

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"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Re:The first one is always the hardest. by thegarbz · 2018-01-27 22:02 · Score: 1

Except nobody builds lots of factories all the same. Automakers for example build different factories with different lines to produce different vehicles.
Actually plenty of people do. Especially since we're not talking about Automakers here but rather makers of generic lithium battery cells, anticipated as being the most sought after product in the coming years.

Hatchet job of a story by aaarrrgggh · 2018-01-27 02:17 · Score: 4, Interesting

Those things are already well known; apparently they didn’t hit their stride until the end of December, where they were at a rate of 1000 model 3’s per week in the last three days. Timing now seems designed to hit the stock before earnings.

Also, the base $35k model is a random reference... of course the lowest margin version will be last.

Based on the fact that I have seen a few model 3’s on the road this past week (first ones for me), I am guessing production is consistent now and possibly accelerating beyond 1,000/week.

Re:Hatchet job of a story by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 04:34 · Score: 1

Seeing a few Model 3s on the road is not evidence of anything beyond you happened to see a few Model 3s. 1000 a week is still far too slow a production capacity for a mass market car, especially since future production speeds are by no means guaranteed.
No other major manufacturer has these types of delays for new models. They simply make the cars, build them, and sell them. Maybe they don't have a color or trim available. Consumers deal.
Tesla is fighting a race that it is soon going to lose. Ford and Toyota are huge goliaths, that CAN deliver on target, and we know they'll be around a decade from now not struggling with production issues.
Tesla is admirable to starting a movement, but I highly doubt they'll be anywhere close to the finish line. Fuck if I'm ever going to put down money to wait for a car.
Re:Hatchet job of a story by zurmikopa · 2018-01-27 14:45 · Score: 2

I agree, I'm pretty sure things are accelerating pretty rapidly.
I took delivery of my model 3 last week. When I was taking delivery in Bellevue I met a couple employees who were flown in from Texas to help out with the increased load. (They are moving from West to East in deliveries.)
There were at least 5 or 6 other Model 3s in the delivery area waiting for pickup.
I have 2 friends who have also gotten their notifications to do configuration of their orders. (It took about 2.5 weeks from when I got the notification until when I took delivery)
Re:Hatchet job of a story by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 14:54 · Score: 1

No other major manufacturer has these types of delays for new models. They simply make the cars, build them, and sell them. Maybe they don't have a color or trim available. Consumers deal.
Tesla's problem is mostly a lack of $$$. They announce cars before they're ready to build them, and they do that because they have to start bringing in revenue, or else they won't have the money to do the tooling to build the cars. Were it a larger car company, they would simply wait until all of their manufacturing capacity was ready to produce that car, and then announce it. If there were delays, you would never know it, because they have enough cash reserves that they don't have to start booking revenue for each new model while they're still building the plant to mass-manufacture it.

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:Hatchet job of a story by thegarbz · 2018-01-27 22:09 · Score: 1

No other major manufacturer has these types of delays for new models.
No other manufacturer came from nothing to making a unique product with such demand in such a short time.

Ford and Toyota are huge goliaths, that CAN deliver on target, and we know they'll be around a decade from now.
Can they? One of those companies received several billion in bail outs only to close factories and miss their earnings forecast by a large margin. But sure if you're completely clueless I can see how you think anything like this is a done deal.
Personally I thought the single largest Korean car manufacturer backed by one of the worlds largest conglomerates who had no problem with production or delivering on target would be around a decade from now too. Shame they took an axe to their business and sold off the remaining shards.

Not a surprise... by QuietLagoon · 2018-01-27 02:20 · Score: 2

Companies always have internal problems that are not known outside the company. Companies also have management in place to address and resolve those problems. In a start-up situation, it is one problem after the other, sometimes many at once. If it weren't Tesla, it'd be a non-issue.

Another "funny" story by Ecuador · 2018-01-27 02:21 · Score: 1, Offtopic

Another "funny" story, my company got asked by a Japanese manufacturer wether we can deliver a pinyin entry method for a device to be released in Taiwan. I replied that we could, but, surely, they'd want bopomofo/zhuyin instead, since that is what people use in Taiwan. They went ahead and ordered a pinyin instead. Somewhere late in the process, they told us that they sent a sample to their Taiwan office and it was asked for it to be switched to bopomofo/zhuyin because they don't use pinyin in Taiwan...

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Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent. Polar Scope Align for iOS

Automation takes time by Ayano · 2018-01-27 02:23 · Score: 1

Automation engineering is a science. The time Tesa 'estimated' was woefully wrong, but those saying it's impossible or that Tesa will never make this viable may well be eating their own words soon.

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I don't read AC

Re:Automation takes time by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 03:56 · Score: 0

What the fuck is "Tesa" you amazing moron?
Re:Automation takes time by PPH · 2018-01-27 05:46 · Score: 1

Perhaps Tesla should have selected (or produced) a battery design more amenable to automation and close packing in battery banks with serious cooling requirements. Too many design teams just toss their work over the wall to manufacturing and QA, expecting them to solve problems that never should have arisen in the first place.

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Have gnu, will travel.

What do they expect? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:26 · Score: 0

Does anyone expect any company to advertise and keep the public updated on its problems?

Tesla is luxury, not mass-market by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:35 · Score: 1

It's easy to make fun of Tesla for being a stereotypical Silicon Valley company bumbling through the actual hard work of manufacturing, but none of this stuff affects their marketing appeal or sales potential. Their target demographic, even for the Model 3, is *not* the average person buying their first electric car or whatever. Teslas are luxury goods for conspicuous consumption. A constriction in supply only increases the appeal, and diehard Tesla customers will look past any quality problems that might suggest their purchase wasn't very practical.

I'd never own one, but I'm not worried about their future. It's just not the "mass-market EV company" people seem to believe it is, against all evidence.

Worse than known? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 02:45 · Score: 1

Panasonic itself published that it was hand making some batteries in the Giga factory, where it is in partnership with Tesla.

None of this was not already or worse than known.

I donâ(TM)t quite understand why there is almost a hope in some people that this project and all associates Musk ventures collapse into oblivion.

Re:Worse than known? by denzacar · 2018-01-27 04:05 · Score: 1

I donÃ(TM)t quite understand why there is almost a hope in some people that this project and all associates Musk ventures collapse into oblivion.

Shorters will short.
Also, if you prove you're smarter than very smart people on a single, small, issue you are automagically the smartest person ever and your dick is the largest dick around.
And not just around but by length too.

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Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens

Re:Anybody surprised? by DNS-and-BIND · 2018-01-27 02:47 · Score: 3, Insightful

LOL someone's never seen a factory start up before. I love these oh-so-wise internet commenters who come in with harsh rhetoric for other people, with zero knowledge of the topic at hand or how things usually work. I mean, seriously, "Musk and his band of semiskilled dimwits"? This is some kind of emotional release going on here.

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Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!

Re:Anybody surprised? by Balthisar · 2018-01-27 02:54 · Score: 4, Insightful

I have seen factory startups before. It's what I've been doing for living since 1996. Automotive factory startups, that is. And, yeah, Tesla is a dysfunctional organization. This is organizational incompetence. That's not to say that they won't recover, but this is not normal startup pains. This is a collosal fuckup.

I'd suggest that you're correct about the semiskilled dimwits; Tesla has hired a lot of smart people. But without skilled leadership, you end up with the manufacturing capabilities of Tesla. (I mean operational leadership; this isn't a dig at Elon.)

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--Jim (me)

Interesting by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 03:06 · Score: 0

As an automation engineer, i'm intrigued what the exact problems are. But since there are no details, obviously, the problems can be anything. Not really worth pondering about.

Competition is scared of Tesla. Very scared. by Qbertino · 2018-01-27 03:37 · Score: 4, Insightful

I wouldn't be surprised if this weren't some hidden PR bullshit being spread by the competition. Do you remember the blatant lies about the first tests on the model s that were quickly debunked by the data provided by the test models? This has very much the same smell. There are reports of paid goons renting Teslas and deliberately mistreating them to put them out of service. This article is along these lines IMHO.

I'd trust Tesla and Musk more than I'd trust any news outlet, that's for sure.

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We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca

Re:Competition is scared of Tesla. Very scared. by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 04:27 · Score: 0

Right now, Tesla is coming out with luxury cars at the same or lower price (though interior needs more work), while other car makers have been either making promises for the last decade OR been producing low-end cars for luxury car prices (leaf, i3, bolt, etc).
I believe that in 2 more years, other car makers (GM, Ford, Audi, MB, Porsche, Toyota, Honda, etc) will really start releasing EVs that compete against M[S3XY].
However, at that time, Tesla will no doubt announce that they are about to introduce an EV for 20-25K base, which will still be better than the bolt/i3/etc.

Windbourne (moderating).
Re:Competition is scared of Tesla. Very scared. by Ryanrule · 2018-01-27 06:29 · Score: 1

Chinese are pushing a lot of anti Tesla fud. Same with the Russians and spacex. Such weak countries.
Re:Competition is scared of Tesla. Very scared. by DCFusor · 2018-01-27 09:49 · Score: 2

Well, my Volt refuses to catch fire despite all the propaganda about that before they came out. Yeah, they totalled one, stuffed into a junkyard upside down, and 3 weeks later it caught fire - somehow I think if I were trapped in a totalled car upside down for 3 weeks, starvation would be more of an issue...and they do drain gas tanks of normal cars before crash testing them.
Yet all this crap came out. ...I put some flame decals on mine just for humors sake.

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Why guess when you can know? Measure!

Is this really news? by sootman · 2018-01-27 04:29 · Score: 4, Insightful

I think a bigger story would be "Company is pushing the envelope and nothing goes wrong at all."

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Dear Slashdot: next time you want to mess with the site, add a rich-text editor for comments.

Re:Is this really news? by gravewax · 2018-01-27 13:23 · Score: 1

things going wrong with new processes should be expected. The problem here is Tesla make promises and statements assuming nothing will go wrong. They seem to have missed some basic PR and project management classes.
Re:Is this really news? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 15:18 · Score: 0

the only problem here is selfish people trying to short the stock, and you believing everything the media tells you, when was the last time you heard a positive story about Tesla? ... the auto industry has alot of $$ and were caught with their pants down, everyone assumed they were just hiding their EV designs, when in fact they had none at all....
Re:Is this really news? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-29 06:12 · Score: 0

Or is it working perfectly? We're talking about them all the time despite their zero dollar advertising line.

GM by JBMcB · 2018-01-27 04:36 · Score: 2

GM built it's own battery factory. Practically nobody knows about it. They make all of their own battery packs for their hybrid and pure EV vehicles. It came on-line on time and roughly at capacity.

GM hasn't run a large-scale battery operation like this but it managed to figure it out. Building the factory in an area already saturated with large factory operations probably helped out a bit. Building a factory in the middle of the desert, where the nearest, largest factory builds slot machines, probably is a hindrance.

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My Other Computer Is A Data General Nova III.

Re:GM by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 05:02 · Score: 0

GM built it's own battery factory. Practically nobody knows about it.
That's because GM knows what they're doing with engineering and manufacturing. Also, they realize that at least for the moment they're selling cars, not batteries. Maybe that will change, but for now that's how it is and who hypes up a plant that makes a part? Oh, yeah, the most pumped up ego of our modern age, that's who.
Re:GM by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 13:46 · Score: 1

Building the factory in an area already saturated with large factory operations probably helped out a bit. Building a factory in the middle of the desert, where the nearest, largest factory builds slot machines, probably is a hindrance.
The location of Tesla's factory actually makes a lot of sense. It's an area with relatively low cost of living, which means they can pay workers less. It is not too far from their manufacturing plant (in Fremont), so transportation is minimized. That manufacturing plant in Fremont, in turn, is where it is because most of the people who want EVs live in California.
The Brownstown plant location similarly makes sense for GM, because their manufacturing is in Michigan, and their products are mostly hybrids, not EVs, and hybrids have a lot more sales outside of California, which means a central location is beneficial.

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:GM by tlhIngan · 2018-01-27 22:09 · Score: 1

The location of Tesla's factory actually makes a lot of sense. It's an area with relatively low cost of living, which means they can pay workers less. It is not too far from their manufacturing plant (in Fremont), so transportation is minimized. That manufacturing plant in Fremont, in turn, is where it is because most of the people who want EVs live in California.
Actually, the factory is in Fremont because that was the location of an old Toyota factory. Tesla simply scooped it up and got rewarded with an almost turnkey automobile manufacturing plant. I believe the only reason Toyota stopped using it was it was insufficient for their needs - it just could not produce enough cars fast enough.
Of course, Tesla is not using it at full capacity right now.
Re:GM by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 10:21 · Score: 0

It was a joint effort between Toyota and GM, called New United Motor Manufacturing Inc (NUMMI). When GM was going through its bankruptcy, it decided to end its participation in NUMMI. Toyota ended up selling the facility for pennies on the dollar to Tesla. None of the robots or tooling stayed, they all went to other Toyota plants. It was estimated that Tesla would need to spend about $1 billion to build a new facility and they got a great deal at $42 million for the building and land plus $15 million for some equipment.
Peak capacity is 500K vehicles annually and Tesla does 1/8 of that.
Re:GM by dgatwood · 2018-01-29 06:45 · Score: 1

Well, yeah, there's that. But it would still probably be somewhere in or near California even if they had to build one from scratch. Building Teslas in Detroit wouldn't make much sense (except, perhaps, from an ease-of-poaching perspective).

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

Manufactory - industrial production by Kiliani · 2018-01-27 04:47 · Score: 1

A few months back I read in a European newspaper (sorry, forgot where) that Tesla is experiencing an unsurprising problem. They transition from manufactory (small series production) to industrial manufacturing – for cars, which makes the problem worse. In essence, all "traditional" car factories have spent years (if not decades) devleoping and honing their production processes. Building a car 1,000's of times at a consisten high quality (fit and finish, let alone reliability) is a difficult business. It was said that the car companies felt almost sorry for Tesla, because they all know how hard it is. They also were confident that Tesla would figure it out. To me the question is really, will they still be around by the time they have figured it out? With Musk leading (and his deep pockets), maybe.

Think of it that way: Tesla is a bit like Rolls Royce. They have a production line, they can produce nice, high margin cars (ok, maybe frumpy, overpriced, and all that, but they are still "nice"), and now they want to produce 1,000's of car a week. Virtually nothing they do now would scale to those proportions, it's like starting form scratch. Tesla has been in a similar position. They have come a long way. And they have a long way to go. I'd give them a 50% chance they make it.

BTW, if they fail, they have at least served humanity by jump starting the switch to electric cars. And I would not be surprised that, even if their car business ultimately may fail, their battery business may not.

At any rate, I would not buy one now. I drive a lot, my vehicles need to last 300,00 miles/12 years, and that does not seem like a winning proposition with a Tesla at the moment. Although the Tesla range would be good enough for me, so it's a bit of a shame. I'll reconsider when the first Tesla 3 hit 200,000 miles.

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Do your own thing. And overdo it!

Re:Manufactory - industrial production by Guy+Smiley · 2018-01-27 05:58 · Score: 3, Informative

Electric motors are much more likely to last a long time than internal combustion engines. There are virtually no moving parts in contact with each other in an electric motor (I've read reports saying 18 moving parts in a Tesla drivetrain), and the motor(s) are directly driving the wheels. Compare that to an ICE with hundreds of moving/wearing parts (valves, pistons, seals, crankshaft, spark plugs, transmission, etc) that need to withstand high temperatures and low tolerances to seal against burning fuel, then convert the explosive force into rotational energy in a different part of the vehicle at varying speeds.
There are already reports of Tesla taxis hitting 250k miles and 300k miles with minimal service.
Re:Manufactory - industrial production by HornWumpus · 2018-01-27 07:26 · Score: 1

FYI: These days, Rolls Royces are insanely priced, tarted up BMW 7s.

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John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Re:Manufactory - industrial production by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 08:33 · Score: 0

So? I just retired a 20 year old ICE truck - because the frame rusted (sucks to live in a maritime environment for some things). Other than change the old and one alternator and a heater core the engine has just trucked along. It wasn't using any oil, had as much power as it had when new. I might have replaced the spark plugs at some point, but I'm not sure. The wiring harness is OEM
The truck will probably be roadable for another couple of years - I got rid of it because of towing requirements. That's 20 some odd years for an ICE - what more do you need?
Re:Manufactory - industrial production by vtcodger · 2018-01-27 12:01 · Score: 1

Probably the moving parts most likely to fail in an ICE/hybrid car are wheel bearings and alternators. I assume that EVs have wheel bearings, and alternators are just electric motors run "backwards" to generate electricity from rotary motion. The multitude of moving parts inside a modern ICE are remarkably durable so long as the lubrication doesn't fail.

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You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Re:Manufactory - industrial production by dgatwood · 2018-01-27 15:02 · Score: 1

The truck will probably be roadable for another couple of years - I got rid of it because of towing requirements. That's 20 some odd years for an ICE - what more do you need?
For it to pass a California smog check. :-) It's not the engines that are the big problem (usually). It's all the emissions crap that they have to tack on—vacuum lines that get clogged by carbon deposits and cause the engine to run lean, O2 sensors that fail, and so on.... And all of those things, if bad enough to be detected by the computer, will make you fail the smog test. And at some point, you realize that every repair costs half the value of the car, and it is false economy.

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Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Re:Manufactory - industrial production by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 21:25 · Score: 0

That is a good thing, though. Rolls-Royces are about the interior, not about the drivetrain and platform. Now they get a high-quality, well-engineered mass-manufactured drivetrain, paired with the classic small-scale hand-crafted Rolls-Royce interior and the typical Rolls-Royce styling. It's the same as it has always been, except the are now reliable and handle properly.

But...but...robots by RightwingNutjob · 2018-01-27 04:59 · Score: 1

Tesla was still making its Model 3 batteries partly by hand

I guess the robots aren't taking over, are they? You'd almost think that success at one specific repetitive task doesn't transfer to success at a completely different repetitive task.

Re:Anybody surprised? by hey! · 2018-01-27 05:08 · Score: 3, Insightful

I suggest that there's a difference between bringing up the first factory of its kind and bringing up a factory which is just a variation on what's been done many times before. Even if an entire vehicle is fundamentally more complex than an enormous battery back, the number of novel solutions you need to come up with is probably a truer measure of engineering risk.

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Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.

Elon's bet ?? by Big+Bipper · 2018-01-27 05:47 · Score: 1

I wonder how much of the production woes are really due to to resources being diverted to supply that massive grid tied battery they supplied to Australia. Remember on time or free.

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You live and learn, or you don't learn much.

Monetize Tesla rumor mechanism by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 05:48 · Score: 0

There is a terrific way to monetize on rumors. Just go long or short on the companies stock.

Re:Anybody surprised? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 06:24 · Score: 0

I have seen factory startups before. It's what I've been doing for living since 1996. Automotive factory startups, that is. And, yeah, Tesla is a dysfunctional organization. This is organizational incompetence. That's not to say that they won't recover, but this is not normal startup pains. This is a collosal fuckup.

Collosal? I wonder how bad the challenges were for Henry Ford had with getting his auto assembly line functioning properly?

Sometimes I wonder if the microscope we put companies under these days is in any way fair. Imagine if you were in the spotlight for every challenge you were presented at work. Would you appreciate a massive glorification of your failures over your successes?

No, I'm not speaking as some kind of Musk fanboi, just stating facts. Edison sure as shit didn't go down in the history books for the hundreds of failed attempts to make a light bulb.

Highly biased article... by denzacar · 2018-01-27 07:07 · Score: 5, Interesting

Two main sources for the story are people who either "worked at the Gigafactory in recent months"... Past tense...

But more than a month later, in mid-December, Tesla was still making its Model 3 batteries partly by hand, according to current engineers and ex-Tesla employees who worked at the Gigafactory in recent months.

...aaaaand a guy with a huge "shorting" investment, standing to win millions from perceived losses by Tesla.

Stanphyl Capital's Mark B. Spiegel, who has a significant short position in the company, told CNBC:
"While I've no doubt that Tesla will eventually work out its Model 3 production problems, the base model will cost Tesla at least mid-$40,000s to build.
The company will never deliver more than a token few for less than the current $49,000 lowest-cost offering.
Sales will hugely disappoint relative to expectations of over 400,000 a year.
And even at those higher prices Tesla will never come anywhere close to its promised [profitability]."

Also, article is reeeeeaaalyyyy trying to paint a picture of doom and gloom.
It takes a line from a Tesla engineer about how workers were "slapping bandoliers together as fast as they possibly could" back in December - and presents it as a doom&gloom subtitle:
'Slapping bandoliers together'

Hell, it even manages to paint higher test standards as bad, by omission of the fact that test standards are higher than expected not simply "[not] the same kind".

The two engineers also said that Tesla doesn't do the same kind of "stress tests" of its Model 3 batteries which would be expected of other electronics or carmakers.

And then there's that thing where I can't seem to find a single article by that author, about Tesla, which isn't a story about how VERY DOUBLEPLUS BAD Tesla really is.

Feds to investigate Tesla crash driver blamed on Autopilot
Tesla factory workers have filed a lawsuit claiming widespread racism, unsafe conditions
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/01/elon-musk-tesla-fired-700-people.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/tesla-firings-former-and-current-employees-allege-layoffs.htmlTesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance related
Tesla employees detail how and why they were fired
Tesla cites performance reviews as it fires SolarCity employees, though workers say reviews never took place
Tesla fires hundreds of employees while trying to ramp up vehicle production

German report calls Tesla's Autopilot a "hazard"
Senate committee calls out Elon Musk, wants answers on Tesla Autopilot
Tesla under investigation for possible breach of securities law, WSJ reports
What the NTSB know

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Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens

TL;DR by eclectro · 2018-01-27 07:32 · Score: 1

Batteries are heavy. They can "sag".

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Take the cheese to sickbay, the doctor should see it as soon as possible - B'Elanna Torres, "Learning Curve"

Tesla Stock is a GIANT Bubble by Tulsa_Time · 2018-01-27 08:21 · Score: 1

At some point profits matter.

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5 out of 6 people enjoy Russian Roulette & 6 out of 7 Dwarfs are not Happy

Re:Tesla Stock is a GIANT Bubble by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 09:45 · Score: 0

Tel that to the Netflix investors.
Re:Tesla Stock is a GIANT Bubble by iggymanz · 2018-01-27 13:55 · Score: 1

net income of $559M for 2017...am I missing something or are they turning a profit?

Re: Anybody surprised? by reanjr · 2018-01-27 08:27 · Score: 1

If companies are asking VCs and more for money to keep them afloat, they deserve to be under a microscope.

Re:Anybody surprised? by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 10:13 · Score: 0

This is not the first factory of it's kind. It is a cell, and battery plant. The basic fundamentals of connecting cells together is something very well known, and a solved problem in automation, as the literal tons of 9V batteries (six cells in series), laptop batteries (usually 3-6 cells), and other automated assembly of batteries proves. Doing heat transfer between these parts is slightly novel, but it's not like they haven't been building battery packs for the Model S and Model X already. Heat exchanger assembly isn't hard either, especially if they aren't using individual sealed heat pipes for each module. There are people using spotwelders made with 555 timers are microwave ovens who are able to assemble packs of this size by hand, using simple fixtures that can easily be filled with a robot using a rather simple palatalizing cycle and a only minimally customized gripper.

Automating this is not that hard. It is expensive, and if you don't have people who really know automated assembly designing the work-cell, it's going to take a lot of trial and error, and a whole lot of fucked up batteries to properly validate your tooling and assembly system.

I continue to hear bad bad things about them by AbRASiON · 2018-01-27 10:33 · Score: 1

I follow quite a few finance people on twitter and at least once a week I see a breakdown of how Tesla are totally doing things entirely wrong, particularly in regards to money management.

I can tell you that every time the stock price goes near 300 Elon will tweet something or have a conference announcing something and it quickly recovers, this seems to happen over and over.

Iâ(TM)m certainly not going to attribute the issues to malice, perhaps inexperience. Honestly it would be good if Tesla is successful, especially a US company, the us could do with a very very successful company actually producing a physical item (rather than just software)

However, Iâ(TM)m not a finance guy, there may or may not be merit, but I can tell you the articles Iâ(TM)ve seen and continue to see, seem to lay it out in a pretty straight forward way. It sounds like itâ(TM)s an ever inflated balloon just burning through cash. That guy needs to seriesly ship some cars and soon. He needs more revenue than just pre orders and stock purchases, like actual sold items.
(I have not shorted tesla, Iâ(TM)ve considered it but my understanding is the hype for this company is so ridiculous, it continues to buck logic, apparently, hence the articles)

Re:I continue to hear bad bad things about them by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 15:21 · Score: 0

wow, it's almost as if you just had to look at their 342 stock price, and annual report to find out that, wow YES they ARE making a profit, imagine that, you don't have to pull shit out of yer ass, but then slashdot would be interesting without people like you.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/financials?query=income-statement
Re:I continue to hear bad bad things about them by vtcodger · 2018-01-27 20:46 · Score: 1

The bottom line -- both literally and figuratively -- in your link shows a net **LOSS** of $675M. in 2016. 2017 is expected to be much worse because of Model 3 start up costs. You pay for the factory up front, you don't book profits until you sell the product. I think the 1017 financials will be published in March.
So, No, Tesla is not making a profit even though the gross profit before subtracting operating costs and R&D is positive. Some people think it will eventually sell a lot of cars (and batteries), achieve net profits, pay down debt, and eventually return money to its investors. Some people think Tesla is doomed.

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You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Re:I continue to hear bad bad things about them by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-27 22:39 · Score: 0

well, lets look at it another way, if you were to invest in a large commercial enterprise, or real estate (over 100 million)what do you think would be an acceptable capitalization rate on your investment? because right now those average 2-5%, when i was in Tokyo last year was about 1.7% in Japan at the time, it has been for decades. Now take tesla's liabilities @ 17 Billion, with a gross profit of 1.589 Billion, thats just under 10%. In terms of creating a new business, they're on track to profitability, would you expect a business with a potential market cap of 100-150 billion to make money in 4-5 years while lowering the per unit cost of battery production by about 30% (that in itself is amazing), also while building out an entirely new logistical/commercial presence (charging stations, dealerships etc..)? If so, i would imagine you would be a billionaire already with the kind of acumen.

Re:Anybody surprised? by hey! · 2018-01-27 11:42 · Score: 1

You are confusing two separate issues: connecting a bunch of cells together to create a large format battery, which of course has been done before, and doing it on a scale that will achieve a 30% reduction in per unit costs.

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Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.

Tesla is nothing more than.... by Computershack · 2018-01-27 16:31 · Score: 0

a bullshit machine designed to rape the US government and US states of tax dollars. Musk makes all these promises and when the time comes and the inevitable target is missed all you get is apologies and "we will learn from this". Tesla is a cult, it displays all the hallmarks of one including a gullible set of followers who'll believe any bullshit they're fed even though the facts are there for all to see.

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I only please one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow isn't looking good either. - Scott Adams

Re:Tesla is nothing more than.... by pezpunk · 2018-01-27 20:56 · Score: 0

haha you fucking moron.

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i could live a little longer in this prison
Re:Tesla is nothing more than.... by pezpunk · 2018-01-27 20:56 · Score: 0

oh look you're a scott adams fan too. a moron AND an asshole. congrats.

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i could live a little longer in this prison

this is old news. by pezpunk · 2018-01-27 20:55 · Score: 1

This is what was happening in November, but the issues have since been resolved.

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i could live a little longer in this prison

Re:Anybody surprised? by thegarbz · 2018-01-27 21:58 · Score: 1

But without skilled leadership, you end up with the manufacturing capabilities of Tesla.

You mean firing up the world's largest battery manufacturing plant and actually shipping batteries? Yeah they suck!

Now I'm sure you have plenty ideas of how to create megaprojects that work first go. Let's hear them.

Re:Anybody surprised? by LynnwoodRooster · 2018-01-27 23:34 · Score: 1

So what you're saying is that it's a failure of vision, because the choice was basically to use untested, unproven manufacturing technologies and processes in a production vehicle? That seems even worse that teething pains at a factory; what you describe is an abject failure of leadership and a fatal flaw in decision making.

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Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!

stuff is hard by minstrelmike · 2018-01-28 05:53 · Score: 1

To paraphrase a presidential quote: Who would have thought battery technology would be so hard?
or Who would have thought ramping up production would be so hard?

Tesla cars..not a fan of their California warm wea by Anonymous Coward · 2018-01-28 07:30 · Score: 0

I think the engineering and future of Tesla is bright and the BS levied not only at the company, itâ(TM)s products and the personality anti cult critics are just the same load as those who to this day attack Apple fanboys with the same weird virtriol.
Living as I do off road in the country north of the US a Tesla is not the right engineering for my climate, rough and dangerous off-road winters and so forth but had I lived in climate âoebaby landâ in the US I would certainly wanted one. I wish Elon would engineer a real SUV and not the flash one dosgned so far which interests me not at all. I would love a solid slightly streamlined box with independent power to a four wheel drive system or at the least one like a Subaru powered from a single source. All the swoops and so forth are not nice when confronting a large animal in the middle of a gravel road and ending up kissing the teeth of an angry bear or the antlers of a mule deer scooped up into your lap via the windshield. And yes, those nice streamlined hoods on most cars are a danger to we in the north from inadvertent animal strikes. I know.

Taps Tinfoil Hat by DarthVain · 2018-01-29 07:21 · Score: 1

So my bit of conspiracy theory is this. The Boring Company is simply a way for the US government to funnel billions of dollars over a period of decades into the Elon Musk ventures, keeping him afloat, without looking like they are subsidizing them.

Slashdot Mirror

Tesla Employees Say Gigafactory Problems Are Worse Than Known (cnbc.com)

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