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We've Reached Peak Smartphone (washingtonpost.com)

Posted by msmash on from the get-that-phone-out-of-my-face dept.

You don't really need a new smartphone. From a column on the Washington Post (may be paywalled): Sure, some of them squeeze more screen into a smaller form. The cameras keep getting better, if you look very close. And you had to live under a rock to miss the hoopla for Apple's 10th-anniversary iPhone X or the Samsung Galaxy S8. Many in the smartphone business were sure this latest crop would bring a "super cycle" of upgrades. But here's the reality: More and more of Americans have decided we don't need to upgrade every year. Or every other year. We're no longer locked into two-year contracts and phones are way sturdier than they used to be. And the new stuff just isn't that tantalizing even to me, a professional gadget guy. Holding onto our phones is better for our budgets, not to mention the environment. This just means we -- and phone makers -- need to start thinking of them more like cars. We may have reached peak smartphone. Global shipments slipped 0.1 percent in 2017 -- the first ever decline, according to research firm IDC. In the United States, smartphone shipments grew just 1.6 percent, the smallest increase ever. Back in 2015, Americans replaced their phones after 23.6 months, on average, according to research firm Kantar Worldpanel. By the end of 2017, we were holding onto them for 25.3 months.

4 of 222 comments (clear)

  1. Needs a new direction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I want:

    A tiny phone that just dials and talks and runs a 4G access point. You take this everywhere, it's tiny and fits in your pocket and solid enough to not need a case, you can call and read messages, and run it as a wifi hotspot. The interface reflects the tiny nature. Use a Wifi tablet as your main media/work device connected via the tiny phone's hotspot.

    Phones as getting bigger and clumsier, and Android tablets have stalled, (largely due to some idiot and his ChromeOS, and 'Android Go' targetting none existant markets).

    But to get bigger the phone part you need all the time needs to be separated from the big touch screen part, you only need sometimes.

    Something the size of an iPod Nano 8th Generation is what I want.

    1. Re:Needs a new direction by 0100010001010011 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I want it to run OpenBSD as well. I'll live with FreeBSD.

      That's it. Exactly what you said plus a shift from what ever Android has become under the direction of Google to a *BSD.

      My current phone is a Kyocera DuraPlus. And I still managed to break the screen.

      My mobile computing device with wifi and emergency cell service is a Galaxy Note 4. The only reason I upgraded was because my Note 3 fell out of my pocket and was taken out by my tractor's tiller because I was listening to FM radio on it. I have no interest in the Galaxy N+1 that they're on now. The battery is replaceable. It has Wifi, NFC, Bluetooth, FM Radio and a pen for notes. Plus I can plug it into USB OTG and hook it up to a TV. I would love to turn on a Hotspot on the DuraPlus and have a mobile datacenter.

  2. Another device is "good enough" by Opportunist · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Computers have reached that no later than 2008. A level of quality that is basically sufficient to satisfy nearly all users, and if all you really care about is office, that level was already reached before the millennium rolled over. You could easily tell that by simply looking at how long you keep your computer. This one here is now about 5 years old and I still have no reason to replace it. I don't think a computer would have lasted me 5 years back in 2000, simply because most new software wouldn't run on it properly.

    Today I'm hard pressed to find software that doesn't run and if, I'd be hard pressed to say I want or even need that software.

    Same with smartphones today. People can do what they want to do with the cellphones they already have. The need to upgrade because the new version of your OS doesn't run or to finally run the software you want to run smoothly simply isn't there anymore. Better graphics, more CPU power, ok, but what for? Until we replace our computers with cellphones, i.e. having docking stations that turn cellphones into desktop replacements, the need for that power simply isn't there.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  3. Re:Market saturation by gbjbaanb · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Yes, but there comes a point where "good enough" is not worth the cost of improving.

    As a n example, look at aircraft - in the early days of flight there were many improvements constantly appearing and aircraft got better and better, until we reached the 747 and Concorde (2 planes that performed different tasks - one efficient, one fast) and that's pretty much where the state of the art stopped. Nobody tried to make a new plane for a very long time after those, and even today when the first new models came out, one is bankrupting the company because its "too good" to be useful and isn't cost-effective for the customers.

    So everything reaches a plateau. I would think a S curve to technology improvements is mostly appropriate for even smartphones. Until a breakthrough technology like holographic or neuro-injected displays appears!