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Ford's Badly Needed Plan To Catch Up On Hybrid, Electric Cars (arstechnica.com)
Ford supposedly has a plan to adapt to the changing world of transportation. The company recently announced that it's "going all-in on hybrids," readying six new battery electric vehicles by 2022, with the first due in 2020, and adding more performance versions of its SUV line up. "Additionally, by the end of 2019, every new Ford will have 4G LTE connectivity, and the company is developing a new cloud platform that will deliver over-the-air updates," reports Ars Technica. From the report: New hybrids: "Hybrids for years have been mostly niche products but are now on the cusp of a mainstream breakout," said Jim Farley, Ford president of global markets. "The valuable capability they offer -- plus fuel efficiency -- is why we're going to offer hybrid variants of our most popular and high-volume vehicles, allowing our loyal, passionate customers to become advocates for the technology." So America's best-selling truck (the F-150) will get the ability to act as a mobile generator, something that should come in handy on job sites. Meanwhile, the Mustang will have performance to match the 5.0L V8 version but with more low-down torque, according to Ford. The company says that these new hybrids will be cheaper and more efficient than its current hybrids, via "common cell and component design and by manufacturing motors, transmissions, and battery packs."
New BEVs: We have to wait for those new BEVs, too. The first of these -- an electric performance SUV -- also shows up in 2020, but with five more planned between then and 2022. Ford says that it's "rethinking the ownership experience" as part of this and that over-the-air software updates to add new features will be part of the $11 billion investment plan.
More SUVs, more commercial vehicles, a super Mustang: Other new vehicles on the way include a reborn Ford Bronco SUV and an as-yet unnamed small SUV, but before then we'll get redesigned Explorers and Escapes, due in 2019. Next year, Ford will also bring a new Transit van to the US, and it says advanced driver-assistance systems, like automatic emergency braking and others, will be added to future commercial vehicles like the future E-Series, F-650, F-750, and F59-based vehicles.
New BEVs: We have to wait for those new BEVs, too. The first of these -- an electric performance SUV -- also shows up in 2020, but with five more planned between then and 2022. Ford says that it's "rethinking the ownership experience" as part of this and that over-the-air software updates to add new features will be part of the $11 billion investment plan.
More SUVs, more commercial vehicles, a super Mustang: Other new vehicles on the way include a reborn Ford Bronco SUV and an as-yet unnamed small SUV, but before then we'll get redesigned Explorers and Escapes, due in 2019. Next year, Ford will also bring a new Transit van to the US, and it says advanced driver-assistance systems, like automatic emergency braking and others, will be added to future commercial vehicles like the future E-Series, F-650, F-750, and F59-based vehicles.
I don't need to call tech support while crusing down the road at 120kph for 2 hours until I get a connection to the internet in order to stop my car, we'll be good. (Read: FU Benz, FU).
Call me a luddite, but I much prefer cars that have mechanical linkages and less software. Generally speaking, the mechanical engineers have a few hundred years of mistakes and experience under their belt. Software developers on the other hand are drunk on the gold rush of disruption and won't stay up thinking about my safety after their nightly hookers and blow and government regulators won't put them in jail for fear of dampening the hysteria.
The vast majority of people who buy pickup trucks just do it because it's macho.
They don't need a big engine, they don't tow anything, they don't need a work truck, they don't have to haul anything, they just want to look cool.
Trucks are ideal to be made electric. Plenty of space for batteries, loads of torque at low speeds, and priced right to absorb the battery cost.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
lots of mention of how they keep car s/ware patched ... no mention of what else they might use the 4G connection for -- maybe slurping data, like where I have been and sell that data on. They will have an interesting time coping with the upcoming EU GDPR.
...would be a genuine low emissions, super high efficiency diesel engine under the hydrid package. Good electronics and battery tech mean you could optimize the diesel's operating parameters.
Diesels depend on being hot. They are utterly unsuited to a hybrid duty cycle. The only company that has a diesel worth using in a light car is Subaru, since they've got a Boxer and it doesn't have to be stupidly heavy to cancel vibrations because it does that naturally. And they have never bothered to sell it here in the states.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
...would be a genuine low emissions, super high efficiency diesel engine under the hydrid package. Good electronics and battery tech mean you could optimize the diesel's operating parameters.
Don't say that word! That's the one word that the Knight of the Ni Automobile Industry can't hear right now!
Lots of folk have looked for the Holy Grail . . . and the results have been . . . well . . . not so great. When Ford says they are "going all-in on hybrids", it sounds to me like they are making a risky bet, with unsure hands. I'd rather hear them say something like, "we have solid plans for the long-term success of our coming hybrid products."
Taking risky bets is what business, especially venture capitalism is all about. However, when a venture capital business fails, the investors lose. If Ford fails, the US taxpayer will be on the hook, because Ford is too big to fail.
Yeah, bailing out GM was maybe a good idea . . . but the government did not force them to ditch the executives who made all the bad decisions. The same thing happened on Wall Street.
We'll just have to wait and see what they roll out . . . and if potential customers like what they see.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
If someone can make it work trucks powered by electric motors off batteries topped up by turbines is probably the medium term way to go. The emissions are way better as is fuel economy.
Will the workers at service centers need training and new tools and equipment to diagnose and repair these new vehicles? Independent shops have been prevented from having what they need to work on some cars and trucks.
I don't want over-the-air updates for my car.
I want a reliable car that works when I get it, doesn't need troubleshooting, doesn't need patching, because it works. Treat my car like a fucking computer and not an engine powering a frame and wheels and I'm going to find a different car.
Would that was just Ford that finds itself in this position. The German car makers just got a swift ass kicking in the form of the diesel emissions cheating scandal that caused WV just sink EUR 20 billion (that's USD 25 billion) to secure future battery supplies meaning that they are finally getting serious on pluggable hybrids and electrics. Just to keep that in perspective, it's worth keeping in mind that the fine they got for the diesel emissions cheating was also USD 25 billion. It just goes to show these bozos only learn through pain caused by money disappearing from the wallet. I'm assuming that many other car manufacturers in the US, Europe and the rest of the world now find themselves in a similar position as Ford and WV, i.e. playing a game of catch-up. This is basically a race to secure as much of the existing battery production capacity as possible because it is limited and (according to Bloomberg) it will take up to 10 years and a massive investment to expand it significantly so it's first come first serve unless you have the cash to build your own battery factories like Tesla has done and sink your own cash into mining. The companies that are late to the party will go belly-up or disappear in mergers just like all those venerable old camera manufacturers who bet that digital will never surpass the quality of film. We'll probably also see a bunch of companies that make things like electric powered fork lifts or electric engines expanding into car manufacture just like we saw computer manufacturers and then cellphone makers start making digital cameras or camera/gadget hybrids like smartphones. In 10 years some of us might find ourselves driving the new Komatsu or Jungheinric sedan (and if you think that's a weird thought remember that Lamborghini used to make tractors). The really interesting part is that in 2014 we got an oil market crash because of 2 million barrel daily overproduction of oil in a market where daily production is ~90 billion barrels, so what will happen when electric cars have eaten up 10-15% of the car market? ... since something like 75% of oil is used for transport and a lot of that is for cars. Then there is the look on Jeremy Clarkson's face when he has to rename his show 'Top foot-pedal accelerator senor value'.
No, they don't need a truck. They like to say 'Well, I need a truck because sometimes I have to haul things!' and you ask one of these works-in-an-office, has-no-outdoor-hobbies, doesn't-do-their-own-landscaping bozos 'So when's the last time you hauled something that would've have fit in a car?' and you get an answer like 'Uh, 2003'.
Some people do need a truck. A lot of people with trucks, don't. They're a fashion item.
Hybrids are a waste of time at this point.
Bollocks.
Pure electric is the way forward, with a rapid charger network and a few ICE models for edge cases.
Yes, but that network won't be built rapidly.
What's going to happen — every single automaker is making it happen right now so it really is a foregone conclusion — is that more models will get full hybrid and plugin hybrid options, but virtually all models will become "mild" hybrids with a belt-driven 48V starter-generator-motor. It will be used for off-the-line acceleration, torque fill, and so on, and it will make auto-stop-start seamless and efficient. It enables regenerative braking during congested driving without requiring carrying a massive and heavy battery pack, or even making any substantial platform changes. And since it replaces both the starter and alternator with a single unit with complexity comparable to the alternator, it actually improves the reliability of the engine accessory components.
I agree that full EVs are the way forward, but the batteries have some way to go yet, and the grid has even further. I do believe that EVs already suit the needs of many people, but they also do not suit the needs of many people.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Hybrids are a waste of time at this point. Pure electric is the way forward
That's like saying SUVs are a waste of time at this point, and hatchbacks are the way forward. You completely ignore a whole lot of use cases that will always depend on a combustion engine backup.
Yes electric is the way forward. But you're brain is not functional if it comes up with the idea that it will cover every use case.
Regarding the grid - are you talking about the US grid? The UK grid have said they can deal with EVs with no problems even for the super chargers. The plan is to have a large battery that charges the cars and the grid charges the battery so there are no spikes.
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
Diesels depend on being hot. They are utterly unsuited to a hybrid duty cycle.
The term "hybrid duty cycle" is extremely vague in your usage. No you wouldn't use a diesel like an Atkinson Cycle engine on a Prius. You would use a diesel like you would on a locomotive. The diesel is running continuously and acts as the power source for a generator for the electric motors that actually turn the wheels. No direct drive from the diesel to the wheels. It should be an excellent way for large trucks (particularly long haul versions) to hybridize. You could have battery banks to power the electric motors without the diesel for shorter trips or to get up to speed periods. Batteries would also allow plug in hybrids in some use cases.
Honestly I have no idea why diesel electric hybrids are not a thing with large trucks aside from the fact that economics of scale aren't in play for them yet. I would think a hybrid electric pickup with a battery bank for running tools and the huge torque of electric motors would be an ideal work truck. Similarly a hybrid semi with a diesel engine driving electric motors for long haul transport seems hugely logical to me. I understand that the early versions would be expensive but the upside seems to be pretty clear.
Hybrids are a waste of time at this point. Pure electric is the way forward, with a rapid charger network and a few ICE models for edge cases.
Not true at all. The "rapid" charge networks aren't rapid enough yet to displace gasoline in widespread use. I can refuel my car in under 5 minutes at any gas with enough fuel to travel >350 miles. Fully charging a Tesla Model S on a supercharger takes 75 minutes and even ~170 miles of range takes 30 minutes. Definitely good but not good enough, even allowing for the fact that EVs will be charged at home/work most of the time. Not to mention that these "rapid" chargers are no where near ubiquitous.
Don't make perfect the enemy of good. I share your enthusiasm for EVs and I think they probably will dominate like you suggest in the long run. But hybrids will play an important role in getting us there. Our fueling infrastructure like it or not is optimized for gasoline and recharge times for EVs still have to be improved to make them practical for long haul transport. We also would need a LOT more charging stations in a lot more places. Furthermore the electric grid is going to need to see MASSIVE upgrades for EVs to really take over significant market share. That will take time which hybrids do not require. I can see all of these upgrades and technological improvements happening but it's going to take a few decades to really come to fruition. In the mean time hybrids are a useful bridge.
Every EV that is just an ICE with an electric drive train fitted is crap.
I've driven plenty of those vehicles and could not disagree more.
It's funny that Tesla built a massive network from nothing in a few years and people still insist that it's impossible to quickly build a massive network. And Tesla already said that they will share if other manufacturers want in on it. Not to mention that Nissan has built nationwide networks, Renault has been in on it, various independent networks exist...
Also, the Truck market is deal for home charging. People in city apartments are not the main customers of trucks, it's people in places where they have a driveway and the need for a truck.
In any case, a much better option than a complex hybrid drivetrain is a range extender, basically an on-board generator. If you absolutely have to burn fossil fuel that's the way to do it. Much less complex, can run at maximum efficiency all the time and can be much smaller than a massive and heavy combustion engine.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
You completely ignore a whole lot of use cases that will always depend on a combustion engine backup.
No I didn't. Go check, I'll wait. I said keep around ICE for those relatively limited cases where pure EV isn't suitable.
Instead of investing all that money and effort into complex hybrid systems, throw it all at EVs and infrastructure. Many of the kind of people who really need ICE mostly don't want a complex hybrid system anyway, they want something simple that they can maintain and fix themselves.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
Yeah, but electric/hybrid trucks would be just too quiet for macho men. Where's the satisfying, neighbour-waking, pet-startling roar of a great big internal combustion engine? And road-ragers would just look silly climbing out of a big truck with a nearly silent engine. 'Murica wants Canyonero f-series! https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Debate is a form of harassment. Do not question my truth.
The half-million-long waiting list for the Model 3 says otherwise. That's equivalent to 2/3rds of a year of Ford F-series sales (not a specific F-series, but the whole series combined), sitting on a waiting list just to get one. To say nothing of those waiting for the Model Y. It has nothing at all to do with "consumers moving too slow", it has exclusively to do with the rate of production scaleup.
No matter how many times you write that, it won't make it true.
Tesla isn't a bond. You're referring to a specific bond offering, not even their last one. Their last bond offering got ratings as high as Aaa(sf) (prime, the highest ratings category). Orders on some of their bonds were over 14 times what the company wanted to issue.
Is your job to sit under bridges and jump out at unsuspecting travellers?
No they don't depend on being hot. Diesels generate spontaneous fuel-air combustion through adiabatic compression. The only requirement is that the ambient air temperature be high enough that the temperature and pressure after compression is sufficient for the fuel and air to spontaneously combust. If the ambient air temperature is too low (typically a little above freezing), then it initially needs the assistance of glow plugs to offset the loss of heat through the engine walls and help get the temp in the cylinders high enough for spontaneous combustion.
Gasoline engines match up well with a hybrid drivetrain because each covers for the other's weaknesses. Electric motors can produce their full torque output at zero RPM but start to get large and unwieldy for high power output. Gasoline engines produce little torque at low RPM, and don't hit their torque and HP peaks (roughly corresponds to most efficient operation - i.e. maximum mechanical energy generated per unit of fuel) until high RPM. Consequently, when you use a gasoline gar at low speed (stop and go traffic) or while cruising on the highway (typically only needs about 25 HP), you are nowhere near the engine's efficiency peak and you're burning a lot more fuel for the amount of work the engine is doing. If you pair the gas engine with an electric motor, you can use the electric motor for stop and go traffic and highway cruise. You only fire up the gasoline engine now and then, run it at its peak power efficiency (usually around 3500 RPM) long enough to top off the batteries to keep the electric motor going. Only when during high acceleration (high power output) do you need the gas engine + electric motor output.
Diesels power output doesn't match up well with this type of work distribution. Diesels already produce a lot of torque at low RPM, and their efficiency peak is at a lower RPM (usually around 1500-2000 RPM). Consequently, they're already operating pretty efficiently in stop-and-go traffic and at highway cruise speeds (I can hit almost 40 MPG at 65 MPH on the highway with my diesel SUV). Where diesels need help is adding more power at the high end - e.g. revving up the engine when you're on the highway to pass a slow car. This is why big rig trucks take so long to accelerate to highway speeds on an uphill on-ramp, or when they try to pass someone at freeway speeds. The engine is already close to its power peak at cruise, and there isn't much extra power at the high-end for these tasks. There's very little an electric-hybrid drivetrain can add to a diesel, and usually not enough to offset the penalty of the extra weight of the batteries and electric motors.
RE: delivery rates. Tesla has NEVER hit a projected delivery rate. Ever. Your faith is quite deep, however!
RE: margins. Tesla has NEVER had a positive margin for a year, and has only had one quarter in the last 5 years where it had a positive margin. I posted the graph, it's for profit margin. Margin is always negative. Your faith notwithstanding.
TSLA's bonds are junk-rated; their finance arm - a different legal company called Tesla Finance LLC, has good ratings. But that's because of the credit-worthiness of those leasing from Tesla Leasing, not because of TSLA.
You have zero facts to back up your statements, and you keep stating things that are blatant lies. TSLA has never turned a profitable year, has had one quarter of a positive margin in the last 5 years. Indisputable. Factual. If you cannot accept that - you're simply deluding yourself and have proven to be completely divorced from reality.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
It depends on where you live. If you live on a farm, then you need a pickup truck. If you live in the suburbs...well, it's occasionally convenient. If you live in the city...unless you need it for business, you've got it for show.
Most people live in the cities, and the next largest number live in the suburbs. So most of the pickups sold are sold as status or image objects. But this doesn't mean that most near where you live are status or image objects, because I don't know where you live. And it doesn't mean yours is, because I also don't know your line of work.
Actually, to really prove this point I'd need to pin down where most people who buy pickup trucks live, but I *know* that a lot of people who live in cities buy them, and often modify them into something that's not even safe to drive. Certainly not around a sharp corner. (I think they call them high-riders, though that slang may be decades old by now.)
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
One would think that the diesel-electric designs that have existed for many decades on locomotives would be easily transferred to road truck designs.
I don't think it would be a direct application but the general concept would be very similar. I think the main obstacles are mostly economic ones. For it to become economical the hybrid system has to be manufactured at scale but until it is, it isn't cost competitive. My guess is that you'll probably first see it in some form of work truck like a pickup marketed towards construction workers. That's the biggest market I think so it's kind of the logical place to start. But right now we have a sort of chicken vs egg problem. It's too expensive right now because it isn't at scale and it isn't at scale because it's too expensive.
Is the I.P. all tied up in the companies that make locomotives?
I doubt that is a serious obstacle. Possibly some but I'm sure companies like Ford could negotiate an appropriate licensing agreement. If anything the holders of such IP should be drooling at the chance to get licensing fees from a product that brings in as many billions as pickups and semis do.
It's not all that bad of an idea. You're really just mitigating the risk of not finding a charging station, which in the early days might be often. I've been looking at a rather expensive electric, but I have trouble getting past the whole 100 or even 200 mile range, and that is if you can find a charging station.
However conceivably you could just buy an all electric, then throw an electric generator in the trunk, and some gas containers, and that would offset the risk a bit if you do take a long trip someplace... How well that might work would be a good question. That seems very much a Top Gear kind of experiment...