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Ford's Badly Needed Plan To Catch Up On Hybrid, Electric Cars (arstechnica.com)
Ford supposedly has a plan to adapt to the changing world of transportation. The company recently announced that it's "going all-in on hybrids," readying six new battery electric vehicles by 2022, with the first due in 2020, and adding more performance versions of its SUV line up. "Additionally, by the end of 2019, every new Ford will have 4G LTE connectivity, and the company is developing a new cloud platform that will deliver over-the-air updates," reports Ars Technica. From the report: New hybrids: "Hybrids for years have been mostly niche products but are now on the cusp of a mainstream breakout," said Jim Farley, Ford president of global markets. "The valuable capability they offer -- plus fuel efficiency -- is why we're going to offer hybrid variants of our most popular and high-volume vehicles, allowing our loyal, passionate customers to become advocates for the technology." So America's best-selling truck (the F-150) will get the ability to act as a mobile generator, something that should come in handy on job sites. Meanwhile, the Mustang will have performance to match the 5.0L V8 version but with more low-down torque, according to Ford. The company says that these new hybrids will be cheaper and more efficient than its current hybrids, via "common cell and component design and by manufacturing motors, transmissions, and battery packs."
New BEVs: We have to wait for those new BEVs, too. The first of these -- an electric performance SUV -- also shows up in 2020, but with five more planned between then and 2022. Ford says that it's "rethinking the ownership experience" as part of this and that over-the-air software updates to add new features will be part of the $11 billion investment plan.
More SUVs, more commercial vehicles, a super Mustang: Other new vehicles on the way include a reborn Ford Bronco SUV and an as-yet unnamed small SUV, but before then we'll get redesigned Explorers and Escapes, due in 2019. Next year, Ford will also bring a new Transit van to the US, and it says advanced driver-assistance systems, like automatic emergency braking and others, will be added to future commercial vehicles like the future E-Series, F-650, F-750, and F59-based vehicles.
New BEVs: We have to wait for those new BEVs, too. The first of these -- an electric performance SUV -- also shows up in 2020, but with five more planned between then and 2022. Ford says that it's "rethinking the ownership experience" as part of this and that over-the-air software updates to add new features will be part of the $11 billion investment plan.
More SUVs, more commercial vehicles, a super Mustang: Other new vehicles on the way include a reborn Ford Bronco SUV and an as-yet unnamed small SUV, but before then we'll get redesigned Explorers and Escapes, due in 2019. Next year, Ford will also bring a new Transit van to the US, and it says advanced driver-assistance systems, like automatic emergency braking and others, will be added to future commercial vehicles like the future E-Series, F-650, F-750, and F59-based vehicles.
I don't need to call tech support while crusing down the road at 120kph for 2 hours until I get a connection to the internet in order to stop my car, we'll be good. (Read: FU Benz, FU).
Call me a luddite, but I much prefer cars that have mechanical linkages and less software. Generally speaking, the mechanical engineers have a few hundred years of mistakes and experience under their belt. Software developers on the other hand are drunk on the gold rush of disruption and won't stay up thinking about my safety after their nightly hookers and blow and government regulators won't put them in jail for fear of dampening the hysteria.
The vast majority of people who buy pickup trucks just do it because it's macho.
They don't need a big engine, they don't tow anything, they don't need a work truck, they don't have to haul anything, they just want to look cool.
Trucks are ideal to be made electric. Plenty of space for batteries, loads of torque at low speeds, and priced right to absorb the battery cost.
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SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
...would be a genuine low emissions, super high efficiency diesel engine under the hydrid package. Good electronics and battery tech mean you could optimize the diesel's operating parameters.
Diesels depend on being hot. They are utterly unsuited to a hybrid duty cycle. The only company that has a diesel worth using in a light car is Subaru, since they've got a Boxer and it doesn't have to be stupidly heavy to cancel vibrations because it does that naturally. And they have never bothered to sell it here in the states.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
I'm all for hybrid and electric vehicles, but I'm really not happy that every industry is going to over-the-air update models.
There are of course the security issues, but there is also the more insidious side effect that it promotes a "ship it now" mentality instead of "ship it when it's ready" mentality.
I'm hoping the "right to repair" movement maintains its momentum and also includes "right to not require connectivity."
"There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
Will the workers at service centers need training and new tools and equipment to diagnose and repair these new vehicles? Independent shops have been prevented from having what they need to work on some cars and trucks.
I don't want over-the-air updates for my car.
I want a reliable car that works when I get it, doesn't need troubleshooting, doesn't need patching, because it works. Treat my car like a fucking computer and not an engine powering a frame and wheels and I'm going to find a different car.
Would that was just Ford that finds itself in this position. The German car makers just got a swift ass kicking in the form of the diesel emissions cheating scandal that caused WV just sink EUR 20 billion (that's USD 25 billion) to secure future battery supplies meaning that they are finally getting serious on pluggable hybrids and electrics. Just to keep that in perspective, it's worth keeping in mind that the fine they got for the diesel emissions cheating was also USD 25 billion. It just goes to show these bozos only learn through pain caused by money disappearing from the wallet. I'm assuming that many other car manufacturers in the US, Europe and the rest of the world now find themselves in a similar position as Ford and WV, i.e. playing a game of catch-up. This is basically a race to secure as much of the existing battery production capacity as possible because it is limited and (according to Bloomberg) it will take up to 10 years and a massive investment to expand it significantly so it's first come first serve unless you have the cash to build your own battery factories like Tesla has done and sink your own cash into mining. The companies that are late to the party will go belly-up or disappear in mergers just like all those venerable old camera manufacturers who bet that digital will never surpass the quality of film. We'll probably also see a bunch of companies that make things like electric powered fork lifts or electric engines expanding into car manufacture just like we saw computer manufacturers and then cellphone makers start making digital cameras or camera/gadget hybrids like smartphones. In 10 years some of us might find ourselves driving the new Komatsu or Jungheinric sedan (and if you think that's a weird thought remember that Lamborghini used to make tractors). The really interesting part is that in 2014 we got an oil market crash because of 2 million barrel daily overproduction of oil in a market where daily production is ~90 billion barrels, so what will happen when electric cars have eaten up 10-15% of the car market? ... since something like 75% of oil is used for transport and a lot of that is for cars. Then there is the look on Jeremy Clarkson's face when he has to rename his show 'Top foot-pedal accelerator senor value'.
Hybrids are a waste of time at this point.
Bollocks.
Pure electric is the way forward, with a rapid charger network and a few ICE models for edge cases.
Yes, but that network won't be built rapidly.
What's going to happen — every single automaker is making it happen right now so it really is a foregone conclusion — is that more models will get full hybrid and plugin hybrid options, but virtually all models will become "mild" hybrids with a belt-driven 48V starter-generator-motor. It will be used for off-the-line acceleration, torque fill, and so on, and it will make auto-stop-start seamless and efficient. It enables regenerative braking during congested driving without requiring carrying a massive and heavy battery pack, or even making any substantial platform changes. And since it replaces both the starter and alternator with a single unit with complexity comparable to the alternator, it actually improves the reliability of the engine accessory components.
I agree that full EVs are the way forward, but the batteries have some way to go yet, and the grid has even further. I do believe that EVs already suit the needs of many people, but they also do not suit the needs of many people.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Not sure why you said turbine... Turbines are lightweight and reliable, but they are fuel hogs... In the aircraft I fly, turbines burn about twice the fuel of a piston engine of the same HP. They also have limits on how many times you can start them up, so they're not great for frequent start/stop operation. You might be thinking of a co-gen turbine system, but that's not mobile...
These guys on the other hand make an engine that might work well, or of course you have BMW with their motorcycle engine in the i3 Rex.
My other comment on the big automakers in general is that when they say Hybrid, a lot of them mean "mild hybrid" i.e. a 48 volt hybrid system. It's a quick and dirty way to get some of the benefits of a hybrid grafted onto existing cars without a major redesign, my worry is that with the state of global warming a 15-25% increase in fuel economy isn't sufficient. I'm of the opinion that we need a combination of BEV and PHEV (like the Volt) to radically decrease the amount of fuel we're burning. I'm concerned that a 15-25% decrease, while automotive use seems to be increasing, may help stop the increase in carbon emissions, but won't help decrease it by the amount we need to be thinking of.
Here's an article on mild hybrids and here is the Wikipedia page on mild hybrids.
My experience so far has been with a BEV (Honda Fit EV) and PHEV (Chevy Volt First Gen). Of the two, I liked the Fit the best. However, my daughters did not. The main problem was, as a pilot I'm used to figuring out ahead of time where I'll be going, where I'll refuel, etc. But the average driver (like my daughters) just wants to hop in and go, and when the little gauge says "E" to just find a nearby gas station and top off. They don't want to have to plan the trip.
The Volt works out very well for them, in that they can drive typically 35-40 miles on the battery, and then the gas motor kicks in, and they don't have to do any planning unless the gauge reads "E". So, in many ways a great compromise between pure electric and pure gas, and I would think a great way to transition people into electric vehicles... but I wish the battery range was more like 100 miles.
What I don't like about the Volt (and mostly I think it's a good car):
1) Especially in the winter, a lot of trips end up running the gas engine. If it's below freezing, the car often will not use the battery at all (it just flashes a message that it's using the gas engine because of the temperature). In the winter the car simply doesn't have the range - the battery range drops to about 20-25 miles which is NOT enough to complete most trips that aren't just around town.
2) The fuel economy when the engine runs isn't that great... about 40-42 mpg. I think that's because they put in an engine big enough to keep the vehicle moving at highway speeds once the battery is depleted.
3) You're carrying a full sized engine around all the time. I think the BMW i3 has the better idea... have a much smaller engine just barely big enough to recharge the battery. In fact I think I'd like the option to go even further than the i3: instead of an engine which can keep the car moving at highway speed (except on a steep hill) give me a really small range extender engine, one that won't move the car much faster than 25 mph... Here's my reasoning:
Most of the time I charge at home, do a trip, and hopefully get home, all on battery. Sometimes I'll drive further and I'll plan on charging at some point during the trip so that I can make it home without having to use gas. But sometimes there's no place to charge, and that's where it's great to have the gas engine.
But instead of hauling around a full size engine all the time, or even a motorcycle engine like the BMW i3, how about a really small engine that can act li
Hybrids are a waste of time at this point. Pure electric is the way forward, with a rapid charger network and a few ICE models for edge cases.
Not true at all. The "rapid" charge networks aren't rapid enough yet to displace gasoline in widespread use. I can refuel my car in under 5 minutes at any gas with enough fuel to travel >350 miles. Fully charging a Tesla Model S on a supercharger takes 75 minutes and even ~170 miles of range takes 30 minutes. Definitely good but not good enough, even allowing for the fact that EVs will be charged at home/work most of the time. Not to mention that these "rapid" chargers are no where near ubiquitous.
Don't make perfect the enemy of good. I share your enthusiasm for EVs and I think they probably will dominate like you suggest in the long run. But hybrids will play an important role in getting us there. Our fueling infrastructure like it or not is optimized for gasoline and recharge times for EVs still have to be improved to make them practical for long haul transport. We also would need a LOT more charging stations in a lot more places. Furthermore the electric grid is going to need to see MASSIVE upgrades for EVs to really take over significant market share. That will take time which hybrids do not require. I can see all of these upgrades and technological improvements happening but it's going to take a few decades to really come to fruition. In the mean time hybrids are a useful bridge.
Every EV that is just an ICE with an electric drive train fitted is crap.
I've driven plenty of those vehicles and could not disagree more.
The half-million-long waiting list for the Model 3 says otherwise. That's equivalent to 2/3rds of a year of Ford F-series sales (not a specific F-series, but the whole series combined), sitting on a waiting list just to get one. To say nothing of those waiting for the Model Y. It has nothing at all to do with "consumers moving too slow", it has exclusively to do with the rate of production scaleup.
No matter how many times you write that, it won't make it true.
Tesla isn't a bond. You're referring to a specific bond offering, not even their last one. Their last bond offering got ratings as high as Aaa(sf) (prime, the highest ratings category). Orders on some of their bonds were over 14 times what the company wanted to issue.
Is your job to sit under bridges and jump out at unsuspecting travellers?