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How Will Automation Affect Different US Cities? (northwestern.edu)
Casino dealers and fishermen are both likely to be replaced by machines in coming years. So which city will lose more of its human workforce -- Las Vegas, the country's gambling capital, or Boston, a major fishing hub? From a research: People tend to assume that automation will affect every locale in the same, homogeneous way, says Hyejin Youn, an assistant professor of management and organization at Kellogg. "They have never thought of how this is unequally distributed across cities, across regions in the U.S." It is a high-stakes question. The knowledge that certain places will lose more jobs could allow workers and industries to better prepare for the change and could help city leaders ensure their local economies are poised to rebound. In new research, Youn and colleagues seek to understand how machines will disrupt the economies of individual cities. By carefully analyzing the workforces of American metropolitan areas, the team calculated what portion of jobs in each area is likely to be automated in coming decades. You can run your city's name, and also the job position you're curious about here.
I can't take anything that uses, 'might', 'will likely', or 'could' as its basis seriously. Those words have been used to describe a great many things that had exactly zero impact on anything whatsoever over a great many decades. Millennial alert.
The backing data is ridiculous. A house cleaner has a 94.5% likelihood of being automated? How? What planet are these people living on, where they see automated robots appearing soon that have the ability to clean a house? The best we can come up with is Roomba, and that is a complete joke. These "researchers" need to get a real job and learn about technology.
Something is seriously wrong with our civilization when robots taking over dull, repetitive tasks leads to an overall worse quality of life.
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Boston is a major fishing hub? Is this the 1800s?
Boston is home to many large fish processing and preparation businesses. If you're in the midwest and you're eating lobster or cod then it probably passed through Boston. These are the jobs that can be automated away.
Any city/state that raises its minimum wage is going to be on the front line of automation.
... and those that don't raise the MW will only be six months behind. Much of the cost of automation is in R&D. Once the kiosks are developed and being manufactured, they will be deployed everywhere.
Any fast food job in California that can be automated will be automated.
I live in California. The McDonalds nearest me already has ordering kiosks. Tap what you want, swipe your card, and wait for your number to be called when your order is ready. No human interaction at all. My estimate is that about half the customers use them.
Casino dealers likely won't go away anytime soon as the gamblers who play tables like the human element, otherwise they'd all be only using the video poker machines and such that have already existed for decades now.
I live in California. The McDonalds nearest me already has ordering kiosks. Tap what you want, swipe your card, and wait for your number to be called when your order is ready. No human interaction at all. My estimate is that about half the customers use them.
I've seen those kiosks at a few around here in the Midwest, I've not seen anyone using them so far as it's much quicker to just go to the register and say "Number 4, large", pay and be done with it. I was surprised that I couldn't just to that when I did try one of those kiosks, it wanted me to select everything separately and I ended up just canceling and going to the counter anyway.
Maybe they get used more when there's a big line or by someone who really wants a complicated custom order (but those people probably aren't going to McDonald's anyway to begin with.)
Casino dealers and fishermen are both likely to be replaced by machines in coming years.
That's just someone's opinion. Nothing to see here..
Humans have an important role in being casino dealers. Sex appeal. Are you going to the table with the automated dealer, or the table with the hot guy?
Now consider the role of machine learning. With or without a human dealer, machines might learn to recognize certain subtle human reactions that indicate things. Like when the sucker is about to give up and leave the table. What responses by the dealer are statistically more likely to keep him at the table losing more of his mortgage payment money.
Maybe machines can learn to recognize when players are more or less likely to be manipulated to gamble more. (eg, more susceptible to gamblers fallacy. (google it)
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
They may not be very skilled at it. Despite thinking that they are 1% special.
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
Every city in the US is already highly automated.
HorseDung to CarSmog, 50 years it took to dislodge a 4 legged beast in the automobile revolution. (https://thetyee,ca/News?2013/03/06/Horse-Dung-Big-Shift/ ) The computer revolution took 30 yrs. to get to ' the rest of us'.
PeoplePace to BlackBoxAI automation will dislodge our 2 legged friends in the transition. It'll take a scale of systems engineering witnessed in the Computer revolution AND dislodge humans at scale as the Horseless Carriage dislodged beasts to their greener pastures. Yay for the horse that got pasture. Boo the slaughterhouses that made glue. Who will get green? Who get slaughtered?
AI transition has not begun. The revolution will be no surprise but for the numbers. What will it mean for a species like the automobile revolution meant for the planet's climate change smog?
"The knowledge that certain places will lose more jobs could allow workers and industries to better prepare for the change and could help city leaders ensure their local economies are poised to rebound."
What is this guy smoking? The real reaction is more likely to resemble a band of Luddites springing the Unibomber from prison and going on a spree to destroy the machines and those responsible for them.
I object to power without constructive purpose. --Spock
Yes. I didn't realize that was Boston. Who knew?
Casino dealers likely won't go away anytime soon as the gamblers who play tables like the human element, otherwise they'd all be only using the video poker machines and such that have already existed for decades now.
I agree with this. It seems like a rather glaring flaw in TFA. People like people, and as such, the service industry will exist for a very long time. People like waiters, bar tenders, dealers, etc. should continue to do pretty well. OTOH, the people in the service industry that you don't see, are in real danger. People don't care about people they don't see, such as line cooks and dish washers.
Do people really want to play cards with a robot dealer? It seems a little impersonal to me.
It is very difficult to find lots of people willing to work odd-hours/weekends for long periods. The reason fast-food chains and other 12/7 operations are heavily investing in automation, is to solve their chronic under-staffing issues rather then save money on wages
There's also the question of whether the folks at Kellog have ever been on a commercial fishing vessel. I haven't been around boats much for about 50 years, But I think that the jobs in the fishing industry might be a bit more complex than they think.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
When you hit a losing streak on a machine, this machine might be rigged.
When you hit a losing streak with a dealer, this dealer is unlucky for you.
THAT is why Casinos, in spite of trying to change it for decades, still employ dealers.
"His name was James Damore."
When you hit a losing streak on a machine, this machine might be rigged. When you hit a losing streak with a dealer, this dealer is unlucky for you.
Since most poker tables have automated shuffling and the dealer just distributes the cards, then this difference will eventually fade. Oh, wait, a single cut is the "random" input the dealer makes. Other than that, the dealer has no input in which cards go to which player. But yes, currently, the dealer is blamed for bad hands.
I don't think many people blame the dealer at Pai Gow, and that's a glaring example of the difference between manual shuffle and automated, despite there being a dealer present to chat with.
There are also too many people playing video and slots where the games can be more easily rigged for "this might be rigged" to be a serious concern for the casino.
Boston is home to many large fish processing and preparation businesses. If you're in the midwest and you're eating lobster or cod then it probably passed through Boston.
Ah, Boston. Home of Legal Seafood and illegal prices.
The level of chaos caused by a major economic change caused by automation is not fixed. It is a variable. If law, social policies and social services develop sensible policies there should be no distress at all. It is only if we wait and try to patch the harm done after it occurs that problems will be severe. For example we currently have Unemployment Insurance and retraining as our mode of social response. That is no longer a valid path. for example currently if a fifty year old worker suffers job loss we offer a few months of poor pay from Unemployment followed by retraining etc.. Now that is a foolish path to take. Retraining will be useless as more and more jobs yield to automation. So in essence we need to retire that worker and provide a reasonable income for him so that he can make purchases and support businesses. It' s like the old Boy Scout motto "BE PREPARED".
Some dealers are pushy on the high house edge side bets.
Since most poker tables have automated shuffling and the dealer just distributes the cards, then this difference will eventually fade.
Shallow thinking.
The dealer still cuts the deck in those places. Ask yourself why it was so easy for you to to be so astonishingly wrong.
"His name was James Damore."
it all.
First is the implicit notion that people have to be contributing to society to feel fulfilled. Bullshit. The upper class is full of layabouts, so much so we've got a term for it (the Idle Rich) and I don't see them offing themselves. People will watch TV, sports, drink and hang out with friends and be perfectly happy. Hell, our ancestors had _more_ free time than we did since they spent a lot of it just waiting for crops to grow.
Then there's the subtext that people who can't contribute don't have worth as a human being (e.g. you're comment about "If you don't have a job, you don't have a place in society"...). Here's the thing: from a philosophical, moral and civilization standpoint you've got two options: Either human beings have intrinsic worth or they don't. And if they don't then _none_ of use have any worth beyond what we can claim for ourselves. As Alistair Crowley put it: Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
If that's your bag fine man. But don't be surprised when somebody bashes your skull in and feasts on the goo inside (or more likely, forces you to work for slave wages 90/hr/week in a factory breathing poisoned fumes). And if that's _not_ your bag, then you need to realize that the line of reasoning your following leads there and turn away from it ASAP.
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fun junk, but junk. How much is college tuition? How about transportation? Or Housing in a safe neighborhood with good schools and jobs? And if you're an American don't get me started on health care.
.09% of your income. For the stuff that matters (and that they couldn't outsource to countries with slave labor) you're paying through the nose. As a result your wages have not kept pace with inflation.
Chinese slave labor has made electronics cheap. I just read a story where a US boat went down in a storm and it causally mentioned that the Chinese lose a boat every other day (along with it's crew). Then there's Cancer Villages. And smog so bad you can't go jogging. That's why your TVs are
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I love how the researcher believes if we know what cities and what industries will be the worst hit we will start making changes now to avoid the worst outcomes. Maybe they spend too much time in the lab and have not seen how real Americans behave in the real world.
And where's the jobs to replace them? And who's going to hire "retrained" folks in their 40s and 50s and 60s?
I see, so all the folks who lose their jobs should leave everything behind, and go die under a bridge.
Or perhaps we need a basic minimum national income, a reverse income tax. Of course, I realize that's anti-efficience...
"Efficiency, n. the speed and frictionlessness that money flows from poor people to rich people", New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson
The dealer still cuts the deck in those places. Ask yourself why it was so easy for you to to be so astonishingly wrong.
I guess you didn't read my explicit comment that the dealer cuts the cards after taking them out of the auto-shuffler at a poker table. Ask yourself why you don't read the entire comment before replying.
For Pai Gow, which was my example, no, sorry, the dealer does not cut the cards. The shuffler shuffles the desk and spits out packets of seven cards seven times. The dealer may do a wash or hand-riffle prior to putting the deck into the shuffler to make it look like he's doing something to randomize the outcome, but the shuffler takes over from there. For all anyone knows, there is a card reader under the table and the "shuffler" is creating biased packets so a certain seat will have better chances of winning. Remember, the "dealer" seat is chosen before the cards come out. It would be trivial for a rigged "shuffle/dealer" to spit out packets for seat 4 that usually beats the dealer, or at worst pushes.
Maybe a few losses just to make it less obvious. It would be hard for a casual observer to detect, because Pai Gow is one of the games where a conservative player can play for a push if they're not sure they can win. Some people will have a track record of pushes, which would look just like a rigged game.
I would predict that Pai Gow, for one, will be one of the next games to be automated like craps was. The "house way" is fixed, there is no leeway in how the "dealer" plays his cards, that's already automated some places. Shuffling/dealing is already automated, it's just a human dealer going through the same easily taught, easily automated steps over and over. All it would take is each seat gets an LCD display showing their cards, buttons to bet and select two of the seven for the top, and you've got a fully automated system.