Supercomputers Are Driving a Revolution In Hurricane Forecasting (arstechnica.com)

Ars Technica's Eric Berger reports of how dramatic increases in computer power have helped improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts: Based upon new data from the National Hurricane Center for hurricanes based in the Atlantic basin, the average track error for a five-day forecast fell to 155 nautical miles in 2017. That is, the location predicted by the hurricane center for a given storm was just 155 nautical miles away from the actual position of the storm five days later. What is incredible about this is that, back in 1998, this was the average error for a two-day track forecast. In fact, the annual "verification" report released Wednesday shows that for the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season -- which included the devastating hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria -- the National Hurricane Center set records for track forecasts at all time periods: 12-hour, 24-hour, and two-, three-, four- and five-day forecasts.

Comments

Re:Incremental improvement

[K. S. Kyosuke]

Clearly the air mass is revolving at very high speeds in hurricanes.

Stepping Out of Line

[mentil]

The 'error' is due to real hurricanes failing to comply with the NHC's demands. Young, budding hurricanes will be imaged and scrutinized in extreme graphic detail to force the fully-grown hurricanes to step into line. Don't even ASK about the NHC's usage of things like 'spinning', 'blowing' and 'torrential showers' to bend poor hurricanes to their will. What, you thought they did those things of their own free will?! The freedom fighters end up on Youtube, but the revolution will not be televised on The Weather Channel.