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Supercomputers Are Driving a Revolution In Hurricane Forecasting (arstechnica.com)
Ars Technica's Eric Berger reports of how dramatic increases in computer power have helped improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts: Based upon new data from the National Hurricane Center for hurricanes based in the Atlantic basin, the average track error for a five-day forecast fell to 155 nautical miles in 2017. That is, the location predicted by the hurricane center for a given storm was just 155 nautical miles away from the actual position of the storm five days later. What is incredible about this is that, back in 1998, this was the average error for a two-day track forecast. In fact, the annual "verification" report released Wednesday shows that for the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season -- which included the devastating hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria -- the National Hurricane Center set records for track forecasts at all time periods: 12-hour, 24-hour, and two-, three-, four- and five-day forecasts.
I assume you either get paid to do this, or you simply can't be bothered to read up on the results from even a single model. Every model has a fairly large range, but - just like the hurricane predictions - that range has narrowed with time. In the 90s, some models even allowed for some cooling - but that result has disappeared as the uncertainty continues to get better. Every single model gives a somewhat different result, but they all now agree on a general upward trend. And when you use CO2 as an independent variable, all of the models agree that this has a very significant effect. Without exception (and if I'm mistaken, please correct me), every single scientist who has planted their stake on the "denial" side of the issue is NOT involved in actually building a climate model.
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
I assume you either get paid to do this, or you simply can't be bothered to read up on the results from even a single model.
It could be both.
Every model has a fairly large range, but - just like the hurricane predictions - that range has narrowed with time.
Our ability to correlate more data points has also increased with time, but there are diminishing returns - you certainly don't get twice as accurate with twice as much data crunched at the same time.
The forecasting is still not accurate enough for you to safely evacuate and stay in Florida.
You're not familiar with hurricanes, are you? At it's widest, Florida is about 130 miles wide. Since you're seemingly unaware of how big hurricanes are, here's a (shitty) graphic for you. The deadliest part of the hurricane, the eye, is usually 20-40 miles in diameter. And yes, you do not want to go through the eye. But the rest of the hurricane isn't a fucking joke. Hurricane force winds generally extend 100 miles from the eye, and you'll note that a mid-range eye plus 100 miles is about the diameter of Florida.
If the eye of the hurricane looks like it's going to come near any part of Florida, it's not safe to "evacuate" to another part of Florida. Florida is smaller than a small hurricane, and tiny compared to a big one.
Hurricane forecasting is plenty good enough to stay safe right now. You just need to see the hurricane coming and get like 400 miles away from it. "Evacuating and staying in Florida" is like seeing a bull charging you from across a field and walking 10' to the left. Sure, if you're fast and you do it at the last minute, that might work. Your timing needs to be damn good, and you need to be able to do it quickly, but when a 50 other people are trying to do the same thing, you're likely fucked. A better choice is to just get the hell out of the field well in advance.
Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor