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Supercomputers Are Driving a Revolution In Hurricane Forecasting (arstechnica.com)
Ars Technica's Eric Berger reports of how dramatic increases in computer power have helped improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts: Based upon new data from the National Hurricane Center for hurricanes based in the Atlantic basin, the average track error for a five-day forecast fell to 155 nautical miles in 2017. That is, the location predicted by the hurricane center for a given storm was just 155 nautical miles away from the actual position of the storm five days later. What is incredible about this is that, back in 1998, this was the average error for a two-day track forecast. In fact, the annual "verification" report released Wednesday shows that for the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season -- which included the devastating hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria -- the National Hurricane Center set records for track forecasts at all time periods: 12-hour, 24-hour, and two-, three-, four- and five-day forecasts.
Irma was forecast to go up off the east coast of Florida. Then the track moved westward until it was in the Gulf of Mexico. Then Irma's path moved back east before the storm finally came up the west coast of Florida. This caused many people from the east coast of Florida to evacuate to the west coast of Florida which was directly in the hurricane's path.
The forecasting is still not accurate enough for you to safely evacuate and stay in Florida. The majority of hotel rooms in Florida are on the coast. You can evacuate and find yourself in the direct path of the storm in a hotel on the beach.