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Tesla Faces Accelerating Rate of Model 3 Refunds (recode.net)
According to new U.S. data from analytics company Second Measure, Tesla is facing an accelerated rate of Model 3 refunds. As of the end of April, some 23 percent of all Model 3 deposits in the U.S. had been refunded. "Model 3 deposits are fully refundable up until the customer configures a car by selecting features and paying an additional fee of $2,500," notes Second Measure. "After configuration, vehicles are typically delivered in just a few weeks." Recode reports: These cancellations aren't necessarily bad for Tesla, since its production rate is nowhere near as high as it needs to be to fulfill the more than 450,000 reservations it still has. Last quarter, it delivered just 8,180 Model 3s. Presumably, potential Tesla customers could make a deposit again when production is more regular. The potential longer-term harm would be in alienating them so that they choose a different brand of car altogether. About 60 percent of Model 3 reservations so far in the U.S. were made back in April 2016, when Tesla first began taking deposits. About 18 percent of the total refunds on the Model 3 happened this past April, the largest share out of any month, according to Second Measure. That's when Musk explained that Model 3s would be delayed six to nine months. A Tesla spokesperson said that Second Measure's data does not align with its internal data, but would not be more specific as to how far off it is. But the analytics company's numbers did match up to Tesla's numbers last August, "when CEO Elon Musk disclosed that there were 455,000 net reservations out of 518,000 gross reservations, suggesting 63,000 cancelations and a 12 percent cancellation rate," reports TechCrunch.
its production rate is nowhere near as high as it needs to be to fulfill the more than 450,000 reservations it still has. Last quarter, it delivered just 8,180 Model 3s.
Only 14 more years to go. Imagine paying full retail for a 2002 model year car.
I'm just here to trigger Rei. We might have to wait for him to clock back in to get a response.
Two front-page, back-to-back stories maligning Tesla and Space-X, by the same submitter.
Who's paying for this?
Deliver on your promises or be prepared to reap the whirlwind that follows.
These days, people have little patience for waiting.
Who's paying for this?
I am. It's cheaper than bribing Donald Trump to raise tariffs to crush my competition.
Tesla is the most shorted stock in history.
This gives many, many people an incentive to trash-talk the company, so that the stock tanks and they can make money.
"Oh, but wait: if you look at the numbers this way, it shows that Tesla will crash and burn any day now."
or,
"Musk is a serial liar, literally nothing that comes out of his mouth is true. The company is run by incompetent nincompoops and Musk is one bad day swsy from a psychotic break"
Tesla will either crash and burn, or be completely out of the woods, in 3 months. Call it 6 months just for some wiggle room: by the end of the year, Tesla will be either gone or a rock solid investment.
What you are seeing is a bunch of last-ditch efforts to try and crash the stock so people can make some money from it.
Fortunately, many Tesla investors have realized that news reports about Tesla don't matter (I read one report that said exactly that, but can't find it ATM). They're going to wait out the summer storm and see a stronger, better company in the Fall.
Stock prices have dipped *slightly* over the last month, but have largely recovered.
Investors are keen to wait out the storm. Check back in 6 months time.
...it must be the "shorts" that are paying for all this bad Tesla publicity. There is no problem with Tesla, even though they haven't hit any production targets and are burning through billions of dollars. TSLA is a very sound investment. It definitely is worth a $50B market cap!
Two front-page, back-to-back stories maligning Tesla and Space-X, by the same submitter.
Is either story untrue? Both seem easy to fact-check.
#DeleteChrome
I predict a much higher rate of refunds when it becomes clear that no Model 3 cars with the base configuration will be eligible for the Federal $7.5k rebate.
The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
Tesla is $10 BILLION in debt. Teslas credit rating is a B3 which is SIX levels below investment grade. That means it is paying huge amount of interest. It has a very good chance of going bankrupt.
Tesla has debt. Heaping mountains of debt with loads piled on every day. Here it is in black and white: http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling....
No other company will buy them as a distressed entity. They have so much debt that the only option for the company will be bankruptcy court.
And not the warm and fuzzy Chapter 11 route, it will be the chop up the body version, Chapter 7. Soon.
Tesla has around $10 billion in debt, and if the stock price drops down to around $200-230, another $900 million or so in debt comes due. At the moment they probably have less than $1 billion in cash reserves with roughly 50% being in the form of refundable cash deposits for the Model 3. These refunds have just evaporated around 10% of that reserve.
There's a reason Tesla is the most shorted stock on Wall St, and it's not because the shorts are haters. It's because by market capitalization, Tesla is larger than GM, despite making 1/35th of the cars that GM does, and only ever producing a running a single profitable quarter in its life (after liquidating ZEV credits). Tesla right now is buoyed by irrationality and hype.
And here we see the force of the Cult Of Elon (as well as the general tendency of internet posters to exaggerate) - facts are now "maligning".
Give me a break. People don't invest based on Slashdot stories. TSLA stock is down 15% in the past year, and the NASDAQ is up 20%. But at least you get those sweet TSLA dividends!
You're right.
The smart move is to put your money elsewhere while the rest of the market rises, then switch to Tesla just barely before the stock shoots up again.
When will that be, exactly?
Also, Tesla is up 200% from 5 years ago. I don't want to spend the time and sanity tracking day-to-day stock prices, so purchasing and just waiting long-term is a valid option. I think the market in general is only up 30% over that same period.
For those interested in option prices as an indicator:
Tesla December 140 puts are $4.55 as of this post For comparison, Apple December 100 puts are $0.14.
A put option allows the owner of it to sell shares of stock at the contract price at a specific date in the future. In this case, buying the right to sell someone TSLA for $140 / share in December 2018 will cost $4.55 / share. That means a buyer today thinks TSLA will decline to less than $135.45 per share ($140-$4.55) at which point the position becomes profitable.
Apple would have to decline to a bit less than $100 / per share to have a similar decline, but the $100 December put contract is close enough. In case of Apple, put sellers are offering the contract at 14 cents per share. In other words, sellers of Tesla puts are pricing them 32x the price of Apple puts, meaning put sellers are demanding a high price since they think the odds of Tesla declining by at least 50% are reasonably high, especially compared to Apple. Maybe it isn't fair to compare to Apple, but GM December 22 puts are selling for 24 cents, and that is less of a decline on a percentage basis.
Another way of looking at Tesla compared to GM and Ford in charts helps explain why the puts are so expensive. The charts are from last year, but the story hasn't changed much.
Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings! -Feynman, maybe
I'm on record as being anti-Tesla corp, there really isn't precedent for pre-ordering mass market cars (just rare ones e.g. BMW M2 or early Ferraris) and at the end of the day Tesla got to earn interest / avoid borrowing 400-million dollars for a couple years.
Honestly it should be higher, I imagine most of the people pre-ordering were given the false impression they'd have their cars or an order date last years. You can't plan your life around promises from a car manufacturer, I suspect there will be a lot of people cancelling when they get the opportunity to order as they'll be locked into leases or finance deals.
Articles about Musk not only have to be true, they also have to be positive. Otherwise they can only be a conspiracy.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
GM : 58 Billion Ford : 154 Billion https://www.statista.com/stati...
Let's not forget that GM actually did go bankrupt in 2009. Ford nearly did as well.
Democrats have been slowing down the confirmation process, so that Trump has many fewer people in place than other presidents at this point in their term.
Nope, actually, it's Trump's lack of nominees.
Good little lemming on blaming Democrats. Like for the embassy. You know, for the country that disinvited him.
Admittedly, it's within the rules and an aspect of Democratic resistance that is actually succeeding.
Kinda your own practice really.
Not exactly a success though.
That kind of ruling is what causes Civil Wars.
It's hurts the country but it does slow down Trump's agenda, and that's what matters most.
Actually, Trump's agenda of trying to put crazy shits in office is what's going to hurt the country.
Fortunately for him, his base is more concerned that heattacks the people who don't stand for the national anthem.
It's ok, he doesn't actually have any need to govern. He can just demand apologies.
Happens when you have a good product...
[($)]
People put down a deposit in case they wanted one knowing it would be a long wait. They are simply in the mood for a new car now. The novelty just isn't there.
That aside I think the production issues are mainly with producing batteries.
They're realigning demand and supply to give a ... umm ... more synergistic value chain proposition.
(Rei is on holiday)
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Who's paying for this?
Not everyone needs to be paid to shit on things or people they don't like.
Is either story untrue? Both seem easy to fact-check.
Something doesn't need to be true or false in order to achieve a goal of crediting or discrediting something or someone. One can always find positive and negative things about everyone and almost anything. The positive or negative bias comes with which stories run with which spin.
You can see this in articles we discussed on the weekend: "Smartphone shipments are down for the first time in 2017" was quickly spun in the comments to "Apple smartphones defiant against an android slump in 2017" Both are true, both are based on the same data, and both drive different agendas from the person making the comments.
You're confused. Ford's not on that list. Yet you keep posting as if they are.
After the tax rebates it's a $45,000 car, which isn't far from the initial promise of a $35,000 car.
What the fuck? How the fuck can you afford a $45k car with arithmetic skills that bad?
Yes, when will the idiots learn that "Autopilot" doesn't really mean "Autopilot", it was just a marketing gimmick to get them to overspend on a car. Those rubes.
I'd be curious how many of those cancellations were just people plopping down $1,000 because of all the media hype around the new car but were never that serious about buying one. Once their slot is up and they have to decide to move forward with the order or not, they opt to refund out.
> Tesla will either crash and burn, or be completely out of the woods, in 3 months. Call it 6 months just for some wiggle room: by the end of the year, Tesla will be either gone or a rock solid investment.
Tesla's current stock valuation has them bigger than General Motors, Ford, or Toyota. Let's look carefully at TFS:
--
Last quarter, it delivered just 8,180 Model 3s
--
There are about a dozen companies which each delivered MILLIONS of cars in that time frame. Nissan, Honda, Daimler, Fiat - all of these companies are FAR larger than Tesla, but the stock price has Tesla as the largest auto maker in history. If Tesla gets really, really lucky and actually becomes the world's largest automaker in 50 years that'll mean investors don't lose money, it'll justify the *current* stock price. If Tesla gets only as big as General Motors, investors will lose about half their money.
I mentioned their stock price says Tesla is the world's largest company (though they sell thousands of cars, while real car companies sell millions). The fanbois then typically say "but they make *electric* cars, and electric cars are the future." Okay, but you should know Tesla isn't the biggest electric cass maker either. The biggest electric car maker would be either Nissan or one of a three Chinese companies. The Chinese companies are intertwined, and sales figures are hard to come by, but the majority of electric cars are made in China.
I have to agree with you. Over the past several months there have been lots of "dump Tesla" - some even including the upfront "we're short on Tesla." They sure are good at getting free press from the media. You'd think Tesla was about to go under - being short on cash etc.
But that said. If I had put down $1,000 several years ago waiting for a $35,000 car only to find out that the car isn't coming out anytime soon....I might cash out. Why lend them $1,000 when I can just wait for the actual car to become available in a few more years? I can't afford the X or S - the $35k version sounded terrific ! Almost revolutionary. The new administration is doing away with buyer incentives to prop up coal. Because the $35k price was "after rebates" --- it means it will probably never exist.
I think the new car shine has worn off.
Years ago (1998) I put my money down on a not-yet-released VW "New" Beetle. The car was announced around January and had a late-spring/early-summer ship date. I was 3rd in line at my local dealership with cash in hand on the first day they started accepting down payments.
And I waited excitedly for several months until finally it arrived. Of course I worked right across the street from the dealership so I could see the trucks coming and going. Mine wasn't on the first truck - but when I saw a truck with a bright Red one -- I ran across the street and they let me drive it around the parking lot with the white plastic wrapper still on it. Everyone wanted to see that car - it was like being a rock star for a few months. Do Tesla owners have that energy?! I looks like a great car - I'd love one as it seems to be the future.
I can't imagine waiting Years for a car to arrive. Apple announces new phones - and everyone gets in line the next day. But Years? I know two people who are on the list and while I'm sure they are excited - at least one of them has at times forgotten he put up money. yeah - it'll come. someday. Talk about delayed gratification.
Hertz, and Panera have this problem all the time; their solution is to offer something a little extra. Offering a discount to an impatient client, tamps down their negative zeal. For example $30K for a Model 3 with AWS and Extended Battery would be a good initial beginning; personally I would wait for that.
Plus, the big thing that deterred me from putting down money in the first place was that it was quite clear that the combination of the $35k car and the full federal tax credit was pretty much a pipe dream. I expect a lot of people though they would get both of those and effectively have a $28k car, but in reality nobody is getting that.
These cancellations aren't necessarily bad for Tesla
By that logic if every single person cancelled they would have no problem meeting the demand!
So how many of these are instead buying other Tesla models or in the used market?
Thats exactly what i did, too, fwiw.
cw
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