Maybe a friend will give Mr. Draper a copy of this book
If fraud is ever detected at any Draper backed company from now on, investigators will reference his interview with Sarah McBride. A lot of financiers read Bloomberg. A cold chill just blew through Wall Street.
Since I tend to keep cars for a long time, I want to know the manufacturer will be around in the future. Sure, Teslas have a lot of showroom appeal, but I would be hesitant to spend mid to high 5 figures, let alone 6 on one and not know if Tesla will be around in 4 or 5 years to provide parts and service. I'm confident Mercedes, Jaguar, GM, BMW and Porsche will be, for example.
For those interested in option prices as an indicator:
Tesla December 140 puts are $4.55 as of this post
For comparison, Apple December 100 puts are $0.14.
A put option allows the owner of it to sell shares of stock at the contract price at a specific date in the future. In this case, buying the right to sell someone TSLA for $140 / share in December 2018 will cost $4.55 / share. That means a buyer today thinks TSLA will decline to less than $135.45 per share ($140-$4.55) at which point the position becomes profitable.
Apple would have to decline to a bit less than $100 / per share to have a similar decline, but the $100 December put contract is close enough. In case of Apple, put sellers are offering the contract at 14 cents per share.
In other words, sellers of Tesla puts are pricing them 32x the price of Apple puts, meaning put sellers are demanding a high price since they think the odds of Tesla declining by at least 50% are reasonably high, especially compared to Apple. Maybe it isn't fair to compare to Apple, but GM December 22 puts are selling for 24 cents, and that is less of a decline on a percentage basis.
Another way of looking at Tesla compared to GM and Ford in charts helps explain why the puts are so expensive. The charts are from last year, but the story hasn't changed much.
Let's say the background process was processing data to sort clinical compounds for a life saving new drug. I would certainly prefer that over useless flashing ads. What if a network of sites set up an arrangement where you could build credits for ad-free browsing by allowing them to use your CPU when the machine is not in use? IOW, your machine is "the cloud" and you get paid for CPU time. Clearly security would be an extremely important issue, and it may not work well for mobile devices, but I wouldn't write off the concept.
Anything that has a perceived intrinsic value can become a currency. Once that is established, ease of use, durability and authenticity become important.
Here's a good example of the various ways tobacco was used as a currency. As for Bitcoin, I would not be surprised if a carton of cigarettes is worth more in the future. But between now and then, who knows.
I would not be too surprised to see Bitcoin go to $50,000 or $100,000 per coin. But in 5 years it will probably be worth less than $100. Then someone will add a chapter to this book.
Maybe i'm just paranoid (most likely) but...does this look like preparing the public for a planned nuclear war?
More likely Sec Energy Perry's attempt to get subsidies for nuke and coal plants. But I also wonder about the WIPP The WIPP is a DOE project. Maybe Perry wants to change the standards to make underground storage less dangerous.
Since the early '90s, I've been predicting Microsoft's future: it will follow the same trajectory as IBM
I'm not so sure. IBM seems to have a great deal of trouble catering to the individual developer or small development teams. Way back in the day IBM had an C++ IDE for OS/2. I tried to use it, but it was so broken the attempt was pointless. On the PC side, Borland and Microsoft tooling was running circles around IBM. Microsoft eventually hired Borland's top talent and added them to the language and IDE business. The result was Visual Studio.
VS improved quite a bit over the years, but now it's a bit bloated. Microsoft took a step back, surveyed the landscape and came up with Visual Studio Code. VSC seems to be a hit, given the increasing number of extensions being written for it. That's a capability IBM never demonstrated. IBM is a different kind of company. Maybe it would be better to compare IBM and Oracle. I think the grand strategy for Microsoft is clear: They want to turn Azure into the next Windows. Given how well VSC, git and Azure work together, it looks like Microsoft is on the right track.
The key "innovation" I would like to see on the iPhone and iPad that would get me to buy a new one?
A USB-C connector.
Short of that, none of the features mentioned as possible additions would entice me to buy a new iPhone or iPad. Being able to consolidate cables and power bricks would be a huge plus, though.
Here's one perspective on your idea I'm not sure if big cities can be considered monopolies, or if telecommuting technologies will someday be at the point where people don't have / want to be in high population areas. Of course if hyperloop technology delivers, cities may change again. Seems we should be discussing this more as a nation.
This an interesting example of financial engineering. Since legal theory seems to be heading in the direction of holding the manufacturer responsible for incidents involving cars with semi to full autonomous driving modes, why shouldn't car makers include insurance with the car? At that point it is just product liability insurance.
The change will have an interesting effect: Over time, fewer drivers will have their own insurance which is going to shrink the risk pool. I don't know where the tipping point is, but some day the premiums for individual car insurance will skyrocket. What happens when the liability coverage for an individual driver with a good record costs $3,000? $8,000 / year? That's really going to increase the sales/use of self-driving cars. Manufacturers like Tesla might as well get ahead of the curve.
What's truly disgusting about this tragic situation is the the attorney. A good attorney would let the client know that given the circumstances, odds of winning in court are minimal and the pain of going through the pretrial procedures will be painful. Tesla might settle to make the case go away, but the client will still have to go through discovery and depositions. A settlement wont bring the people back, and it won't be that The defense will be all over the daughter's "lifestyle choices", the relationship with her boss, etc. The family of her boss will be forced to endure the same interrogation. The client's attorney doesn't care - He just sees easy money, no matter how much pain it causes everyone including his client. This is the kind of case that gives attorneys a very bad reputation.
I always assume wireless keyboard are cheap consumer products built by the lowest bidder and designed by people whose primary interest is getting a product out the door in advance of or for the next big release of whatever their company's actual product is.
Right, I have always wondered about this, which is why I don't use a wireless keyboard for passwords even when it is available. (Yes that means using two keyboards at times.)
But my question: Has anyone studied how secure keyboards from Logitech, Apple, Microsoft and Dell are? You would think the big vendors would say something about it in their product descriptions, but I have never found anything on security. Anyone work for a keyboard manufacturer who can enlighten us?
You and your colleagues are doing great work, no question about that. It's too bad that the story telling doesn't make use of it most movies today. I just watched the trailer for "Star Trek Beyond". I thought that it had spectacular effects, but could barely figure out what the story was. It looked like every other sci fi movie for the past ten years. Pew pew lasers, stuff blowing up, overdone aliens... Seriously Hollywood, you can't do better than this?
So the obvious question - why have the customer go in the store at all if a robot is going to do the work of getting the items? With clothing and other wearable it might be necessary to go in, but certainly not for most prepackaged items. There are a number of ways this could dramatically change shopping.
Not really. When added the to Bill of Rights, the 2nd Amendment limited the ability of the Federal government to restrict ownership of firearms. Not the state governments. For example, guns were banned in Tombstone, AZ. You might also be interested in knowing why you can't walk into a gun store and by a fully automatic firearm, or silencer, grenades, RPGs, etc.
Slashdot Mirror
Maybe a friend will give Mr. Draper a copy of this book
If fraud is ever detected at any Draper backed company from now on, investigators will reference his interview with Sarah McBride. A lot of financiers read Bloomberg. A cold chill just blew through Wall Street.
In this context, data is money, so there is a similarity in terms of value and increasing regulation.
Do large tech companies present system risk in the same way banks do? If they deal with communication or power infrastructure, for example, probably.
Since I tend to keep cars for a long time, I want to know the manufacturer will be around in the future. Sure, Teslas have a lot of showroom appeal, but I would be hesitant to spend mid to high 5 figures, let alone 6 on one and not know if Tesla will be around in 4 or 5 years to provide parts and service. I'm confident Mercedes, Jaguar, GM, BMW and Porsche will be, for example.
That said, even if Tesla does go BK there is an emerging aftermarket for the cars which reduces the risk to some extent.
Too bad they botched Windows Phone, though. I still think it had the best UI - Somewhat better than Android and a lot better than iOS.
But I also liked Clippy, especially when printing. Sorry, probably TMI.
"We need hours a day," Mr. Stankey said, referring to the time viewers spend watching HBO programs.
Guess ATT should have bought YouTube. Oh wait...
Maybe subways as designed today are obsolete. It is worth trying a very different approach in New York City. If the idea works in Chicago, it may work on a larger scale in NYC.
For those interested in option prices as an indicator:
Tesla December 140 puts are $4.55 as of this post For comparison, Apple December 100 puts are $0.14.
A put option allows the owner of it to sell shares of stock at the contract price at a specific date in the future. In this case, buying the right to sell someone TSLA for $140 / share in December 2018 will cost $4.55 / share. That means a buyer today thinks TSLA will decline to less than $135.45 per share ($140-$4.55) at which point the position becomes profitable.
Apple would have to decline to a bit less than $100 / per share to have a similar decline, but the $100 December put contract is close enough. In case of Apple, put sellers are offering the contract at 14 cents per share. In other words, sellers of Tesla puts are pricing them 32x the price of Apple puts, meaning put sellers are demanding a high price since they think the odds of Tesla declining by at least 50% are reasonably high, especially compared to Apple. Maybe it isn't fair to compare to Apple, but GM December 22 puts are selling for 24 cents, and that is less of a decline on a percentage basis.
Another way of looking at Tesla compared to GM and Ford in charts helps explain why the puts are so expensive. The charts are from last year, but the story hasn't changed much.
I thought Singapore was supposed to have them first, but I don't know the latest status.
It's an interesting idea.
Let's say the background process was processing data to sort clinical compounds for a life saving new drug. I would certainly prefer that over useless flashing ads. What if a network of sites set up an arrangement where you could build credits for ad-free browsing by allowing them to use your CPU when the machine is not in use? IOW, your machine is "the cloud" and you get paid for CPU time. Clearly security would be an extremely important issue, and it may not work well for mobile devices, but I wouldn't write off the concept.
Anything that has a perceived intrinsic value can become a currency. Once that is established, ease of use, durability and authenticity become important.
Here's a good example of the various ways tobacco was used as a currency. As for Bitcoin, I would not be surprised if a carton of cigarettes is worth more in the future. But between now and then, who knows.
Here is a great explanation of how the financial industry looks at Bitcoin. What is not explained is how the exchanges will deal with limit moves, but the contracts are relatively small. If Bitcoin goes up, they will probably reduce the amount of Bitcoin per contract. The power demand curve doesn't look good either considering the the amount of electricity consumed by Bitcoin mining.
I would not be too surprised to see Bitcoin go to $50,000 or $100,000 per coin. But in 5 years it will probably be worth less than $100. Then someone will add a chapter to this book.
Maybe i'm just paranoid (most likely) but...does this look like preparing the public for a planned nuclear war?
More likely Sec Energy Perry's attempt to get subsidies for nuke and coal plants. But I also wonder about the WIPP The WIPP is a DOE project. Maybe Perry wants to change the standards to make underground storage less dangerous.
Since the early '90s, I've been predicting Microsoft's future: it will follow the same trajectory as IBM
I'm not so sure. IBM seems to have a great deal of trouble catering to the individual developer or small development teams. Way back in the day IBM had an C++ IDE for OS/2. I tried to use it, but it was so broken the attempt was pointless. On the PC side, Borland and Microsoft tooling was running circles around IBM. Microsoft eventually hired Borland's top talent and added them to the language and IDE business. The result was Visual Studio.
VS improved quite a bit over the years, but now it's a bit bloated. Microsoft took a step back, surveyed the landscape and came up with Visual Studio Code. VSC seems to be a hit, given the increasing number of extensions being written for it. That's a capability IBM never demonstrated. IBM is a different kind of company. Maybe it would be better to compare IBM and Oracle. I think the grand strategy for Microsoft is clear: They want to turn Azure into the next Windows. Given how well VSC, git and Azure work together, it looks like Microsoft is on the right track.
The key "innovation" I would like to see on the iPhone and iPad that would get me to buy a new one?
A USB-C connector.
Short of that, none of the features mentioned as possible additions would entice me to buy a new iPhone or iPad. Being able to consolidate cables and power bricks would be a huge plus, though.
Here's one perspective on your idea I'm not sure if big cities can be considered monopolies, or if telecommuting technologies will someday be at the point where people don't have / want to be in high population areas. Of course if hyperloop technology delivers, cities may change again. Seems we should be discussing this more as a nation.
Will it have a back button? In all seriousness, they need to add one. The tiny text on the top left of some apps does not count.
This an interesting example of financial engineering. Since legal theory seems to be heading in the direction of holding the manufacturer responsible for incidents involving cars with semi to full autonomous driving modes, why shouldn't car makers include insurance with the car? At that point it is just product liability insurance.
The change will have an interesting effect: Over time, fewer drivers will have their own insurance which is going to shrink the risk pool. I don't know where the tipping point is, but some day the premiums for individual car insurance will skyrocket. What happens when the liability coverage for an individual driver with a good record costs $3,000? $8,000 / year? That's really going to increase the sales/use of self-driving cars. Manufacturers like Tesla might as well get ahead of the curve.
I heard this somewhere: "Dogs have owners, cats have staff."
What's truly disgusting about this tragic situation is the the attorney. A good attorney would let the client know that given the circumstances, odds of winning in court are minimal and the pain of going through the pretrial procedures will be painful. Tesla might settle to make the case go away, but the client will still have to go through discovery and depositions. A settlement wont bring the people back, and it won't be that The defense will be all over the daughter's "lifestyle choices", the relationship with her boss, etc. The family of her boss will be forced to endure the same interrogation. The client's attorney doesn't care - He just sees easy money, no matter how much pain it causes everyone including his client. This is the kind of case that gives attorneys a very bad reputation.
Not advocating a minimalist lifestyle, but you can read a lot about it from James Altucher who has done it. Most of us can probably do with a lot less stuff. One of the things Altucher advises against is over-leveraging yourself, especially when it comes to housing and education.
John Zimmer from Lyft describes an evolution in his Medium article that would address the issues you raise.
I always assume wireless keyboard are cheap consumer products built by the lowest bidder and designed by people whose primary interest is getting a product out the door in advance of or for the next big release of whatever their company's actual product is.
Right, I have always wondered about this, which is why I don't use a wireless keyboard for passwords even when it is available. (Yes that means using two keyboards at times.)
But my question: Has anyone studied how secure keyboards from Logitech, Apple, Microsoft and Dell are? You would think the big vendors would say something about it in their product descriptions, but I have never found anything on security. Anyone work for a keyboard manufacturer who can enlighten us?
You and your colleagues are doing great work, no question about that. It's too bad that the story telling doesn't make use of it most movies today. I just watched the trailer for "Star Trek Beyond". I thought that it had spectacular effects, but could barely figure out what the story was. It looked like every other sci fi movie for the past ten years. Pew pew lasers, stuff blowing up, overdone aliens... Seriously Hollywood, you can't do better than this?
So the obvious question - why have the customer go in the store at all if a robot is going to do the work of getting the items? With clothing and other wearable it might be necessary to go in, but certainly not for most prepackaged items. There are a number of ways this could dramatically change shopping.
Not really. When added the to Bill of Rights, the 2nd Amendment limited the ability of the Federal government to restrict ownership of firearms. Not the state governments. For example, guns were banned in Tombstone, AZ. You might also be interested in knowing why you can't walk into a gun store and by a fully automatic firearm, or silencer, grenades, RPGs, etc.