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The US is Facing a Serious Shortage of Airline Pilots (cnn.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes -- and highly skilled pilots to operate them. However, the United States has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in America in 1987. Over the past three decades, that number has decreased by 30%. Meanwhile, during this period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
I know, that's crazy talk.
Airline pilot used to be a prestige job which for a system airline could be a lifetime career. Starting pilots now make $24 an hour, which is slightly higher than a Walmart greeter:
http://fortune.com/2014/03/03/...
Think about that the next time you roar down the runway on your way somewhere.
Get rid of the idiotic 1500 hour rule, keep the rules as far as crew rest hours. Both of the pilots in the 2008 crash that precipitated the 1500 hour rule had more than 1500 hours in the cockpit. Most of the world does fine with co-pilots starting with 250 to 500 hours -- this allows them to be trained on the job.
^^^^ This, or so I heard. A friend of mine finally "made it to (national/international airline)" after umpteen years and it was the difference between his wife being the breadwinner and his wife staying at home with the kids.
Here's a thought: they could try paying pilots decently, and giving them reasonable work schedules.
I know, that's crazy talk.
The starting wage for a pilot at a major carrier is $70-80 an hour with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.
So, why does the first hit on my google search for "starting pay for airline pilots" say "Starting Salaries. A regional airline pilots in the U.S. typically starts out making an hourly rate of $20 – $50 per hour, or about $20,000-$40,000 per year, depending on the airline, type of aircraft, and the pilot's experience level."
with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.
...and, as the very same page on my google search helpfully tells me, "The average airline pilot logs 75 hours a month in the air and sometimes up to 150 hours per month performing ground duties like simulator training, maintaining records, performing pre-flight inspections, flight planning and traveling to and from hotels and airports."
...
Given that the technology exists today to build passenger planes which require no flight crew at all, I can imagine why someone in their late teens/early twenties deciding on a career path would be hesitant to make the HUGE investment of time and money it requires to become a commercial airline pilot. My guess is within ten years, you will start to see automated commercial flights in which the "pilot" doesn't need to touch anything from pushback at the departing gate to pulling up at the arrival gate, and within twenty, you'll start to see flights with no flight crew on board at all. Why would anyone want to start a career in that field now? I think the pilot shortage problem is only going to get worse in the years to come, before automation takes over, and the shortage may accelerate the trend to automation.
If I can be modded down for being a troll, can I be modded up for being an orc, or a balrog?
Whenever there's an article about a shortage of X, it's usually because the pay/conditions of X are terrible, nobody wants to do it FOR THAT WAGE, and thus there's a shortage. But the hope is that somehow this shortage will etiher drum up business for schools/certification, remove regulations that prevent unqualified people from doing the work, or otherwise prevent having to take the revenue that is lost to profit and use it for employees. Really hard to give a flying fuck.
There is no shortage of pilots for those $300K/year jobs. Period.
There is a shortage at the 36K - $40K per year level - especially now that you need 1,500 hours which takes a fair bit of time to get (and $$). Add in quality of life issues at that pay rate - yes there is a shortage.
Put all the regional pilots on mainline contracts. Pilot shortage would go away pretty quickly.
I just visited with a former US Navy pilot who's been flying for Frontier for the last 20 years. He hates it. Even in some major airlines, pilots are often treated poorly, have poor schedules, and are expected to have no life. This leads to a high rate of "AIDS" - Aviation Induced Divorce Syndrome. Pay has been increasing, but quality of life isn't.
If you work for an airline, regional or major, you have to establish 'seniority' before you can gain any sense of a normal schedule or choose a base of operations. Until you've establish seniority, a pilot is at the whim of the company. If you change companies, you give up seniority and start at the bottom all over again.
Federally Regulated Indentured Servitude. What a rewarding career choice. Not.
The real issues are the MBA mentality, and innovation and competition limiting FAA regulations. The airline industry and the FAA have been in bed together for decades to create regulations that go far beyond safety, and in reality limit competition and innovation. Profit and protecting the status quo comes first, everything else comes second. As a result, the US has seen a real decline in the pace of innovation in aviation. Other markets have seen dramatic increases in innovation, service, and safety. Aviation, not so much (except in safety). Yes, we have more efficient engines, better avionics, and more advanced materials (787 Dreamliner, etc.), but these innovations are in increasingly niche markets.
General aviation special interest groups like EAA and AOPA are starting to chip away at the FAA/Airline industry monster: Basic Med is helping hobbyist pilots keep their medicals and continue flying smaller aircraft safely. And, the recent FAA Part 23 regulation re-write is helping revive general aviation engineering and production in the United States. These are drops in the bucket, but hopefully this trend continues.
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." - H. G. Wells
coming soon, we must increase rates... also more h1b pilots needed....
The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry.
No, it doesn't. That's absurd. The military flies its own shit.
The economy does, sure. But that's a self-correcting problem (as long as you actually let it self-correct).
If there's a shortage of pilots, then raise fares to either lower demand or hire more pilots to fill demand.
Nah.
Better to make the pilots we have work more hours for the same pay.
No possible downside to that.
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
A pilot's license doesn't make someone an active commercial pilot. I work with a bunch of guys in their 60's who in their youth were hobbyist pilots that would just go and fly for fun out of local airfields. ALL of these airfields are now gone, and the cost to take up a small plane just isn't feasible for a hobbyist anymore.
Pay the pilots more and they will find they don't need pilots because nobody is flying on their airline as the tickets cost more.
What fraction of the price of an airline ticket is the price of paying the pilot? Quick back of the envelope calculation: somewhere around 1%. I'm guessing that a 1% change in ticket prices won't make much of a difference.
why train when they can get an 100K student loan to cover it.
100K isn't going to get you enough flight time to fly charters and is only a drop in the bucket towards the 1500 minimum hours to be an ATP. Especially when a small twin engine is going to run you $150+/hour and a flight instructor another $80. It's going to take YEARS to accrue enough flight time and at least $300K in flying expenses.
By my rough calculations you will blow a quarter of a million dollars in flight time and at least 5 years of living time before you can manage to land a charter pilot gig at about 800 hours. Then, it will take you another 5 years of being a busy charter pilot to get you near 1,500 hours, but you will be destitute trying to service your debt on that salary. Once you get to 1,500, you have the option of taking a ATP job with a feeder airline, flying awful routes in shoddy old aircraft for another 5-10 years before you can land a job at one of the majors, with 15 years experience and about 3,000 hours of time.
The pilot gig is not a comfortable one. You got to really love what you do to live like a pauper working the night shift away from home until you are 35 or older.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
> h1b pilots
Other countries don't have shortages because they get paid a lot more. Why the hell would anyone want to get a visa to be a pilot here?
AC versus NBC News. Fight!
"A portrait of these hourly pay scales becomes even more pathetic when you consider that regional airline pilots, who are paid only from the time the airline leaves the gate to the time it arrives at the destination, only are on the clock on average about 21.5 hours per week."
"They have a minimum pay for time on duty at some airlines, like one hour of pay minimum for every two hours on duty, and one hour of pay for every 4-5 hours away from home,' Darby says. 'These rules are often not in effect at the smaller airlines, and are always guaranteed by the larger major airlines' union contracts."
Oooo... half-time pay, if you're lucky. Color me jealous.