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The US is Facing a Serious Shortage of Airline Pilots (cnn.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes -- and highly skilled pilots to operate them. However, the United States has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in America in 1987. Over the past three decades, that number has decreased by 30%. Meanwhile, during this period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
I know, that's crazy talk.
regional airlines pay very low
Airline pilot used to be a prestige job which for a system airline could be a lifetime career. Starting pilots now make $24 an hour, which is slightly higher than a Walmart greeter:
http://fortune.com/2014/03/03/...
Think about that the next time you roar down the runway on your way somewhere.
If they were that desperate they would be training pilots themselves.
"That's the way to do it" - Punch
The situation has gotten absolutely miserable for student pilots, worse than trying to become a doctor in many ways (and that's saying something). And taking that risk (debt) buys you entrance to starving as a regional pilot for many years, until MAYBE you get hired on for a wage that can finally provide a life.
And then you're still just a bus driver in the sky. Passengers certainly treat it as such, in no small part due to the airlines treating the passengers like cattle. Honestly, I think the whole US air industry is just fucked.
Get rid of the idiotic 1500 hour rule, keep the rules as far as crew rest hours. Both of the pilots in the 2008 crash that precipitated the 1500 hour rule had more than 1500 hours in the cockpit. Most of the world does fine with co-pilots starting with 250 to 500 hours -- this allows them to be trained on the job.
Here's a thought: they could try paying pilots decently, and giving them reasonable work schedules.
I know, that's crazy talk.
The starting wage for a pilot at a major carrier is $70-80 an hour with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.
So, why does the first hit on my google search for "starting pay for airline pilots" say "Starting Salaries. A regional airline pilots in the U.S. typically starts out making an hourly rate of $20 – $50 per hour, or about $20,000-$40,000 per year, depending on the airline, type of aircraft, and the pilot's experience level."
with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.
...and, as the very same page on my google search helpfully tells me, "The average airline pilot logs 75 hours a month in the air and sometimes up to 150 hours per month performing ground duties like simulator training, maintaining records, performing pre-flight inspections, flight planning and traveling to and from hotels and airports."
...
Given that the technology exists today to build passenger planes which require no flight crew at all, I can imagine why someone in their late teens/early twenties deciding on a career path would be hesitant to make the HUGE investment of time and money it requires to become a commercial airline pilot. My guess is within ten years, you will start to see automated commercial flights in which the "pilot" doesn't need to touch anything from pushback at the departing gate to pulling up at the arrival gate, and within twenty, you'll start to see flights with no flight crew on board at all. Why would anyone want to start a career in that field now? I think the pilot shortage problem is only going to get worse in the years to come, before automation takes over, and the shortage may accelerate the trend to automation.
If I can be modded down for being a troll, can I be modded up for being an orc, or a balrog?
There is no shortage of pilots for those $300K/year jobs. Period.
There is a shortage at the 36K - $40K per year level - especially now that you need 1,500 hours which takes a fair bit of time to get (and $$). Add in quality of life issues at that pay rate - yes there is a shortage.
Put all the regional pilots on mainline contracts. Pilot shortage would go away pretty quickly.
We dont have enough pilots because of the russians
I just visited with a former US Navy pilot who's been flying for Frontier for the last 20 years. He hates it. Even in some major airlines, pilots are often treated poorly, have poor schedules, and are expected to have no life. This leads to a high rate of "AIDS" - Aviation Induced Divorce Syndrome. Pay has been increasing, but quality of life isn't.
If you work for an airline, regional or major, you have to establish 'seniority' before you can gain any sense of a normal schedule or choose a base of operations. Until you've establish seniority, a pilot is at the whim of the company. If you change companies, you give up seniority and start at the bottom all over again.
Federally Regulated Indentured Servitude. What a rewarding career choice. Not.
The real issues are the MBA mentality, and innovation and competition limiting FAA regulations. The airline industry and the FAA have been in bed together for decades to create regulations that go far beyond safety, and in reality limit competition and innovation. Profit and protecting the status quo comes first, everything else comes second. As a result, the US has seen a real decline in the pace of innovation in aviation. Other markets have seen dramatic increases in innovation, service, and safety. Aviation, not so much (except in safety). Yes, we have more efficient engines, better avionics, and more advanced materials (787 Dreamliner, etc.), but these innovations are in increasingly niche markets.
General aviation special interest groups like EAA and AOPA are starting to chip away at the FAA/Airline industry monster: Basic Med is helping hobbyist pilots keep their medicals and continue flying smaller aircraft safely. And, the recent FAA Part 23 regulation re-write is helping revive general aviation engineering and production in the United States. These are drops in the bucket, but hopefully this trend continues.
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." - H. G. Wells
You can't get student loans to cover it. Student loans are only for education, not experience. You need 1500 hours of experience. That cost is on you.
coming soon, we must increase rates... also more h1b pilots needed....
The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry.
No, it doesn't. That's absurd. The military flies its own shit.
The economy does, sure. But that's a self-correcting problem (as long as you actually let it self-correct).
If there's a shortage of pilots, then raise fares to either lower demand or hire more pilots to fill demand.
Nah.
Better to make the pilots we have work more hours for the same pay.
No possible downside to that.
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
A pilot's license doesn't make someone an active commercial pilot. I work with a bunch of guys in their 60's who in their youth were hobbyist pilots that would just go and fly for fun out of local airfields. ALL of these airfields are now gone, and the cost to take up a small plane just isn't feasible for a hobbyist anymore.
There is no such thing as a shortage, or a surplus. Those two things only exist within a price point, at a specific point in time. With enough money, you could buy ALL the pilots. I am pretty sure the very last pilot would be very expensive. Then, after a few more years, there would be even more pilots, and then they'd be even more expensive. Eventually this would stabilize, as even if there were one extremely rich person with all the money, not everyone could be a pilot. Some people would have to grow food, and work on airplanes.
This article seems to miss an important point - regional airlines choose not to pay as much for pilots, so they will feel a 'shortage' at or below their preferred price point, for a specific time period.
coming soon, we must increase rates... also more h1b pilots needed....
I know you were being sarcastic, but yes, this will require airlines to increase rates. Pilots aren't a huge part of an airlines labor force, but if airlines are forced to invest in training/apprenticeships to bring new pilots into the system, and to raise pay to make it a more appealing career, that will raise their costs, and they will seek to pass it along to their customers.
Since deregulation, airlines have been a very low margin business, so they don't have lots of ability to absorb the increased costs.
And if foreign pilots want to work with an American carrier, an H1-B would be one of the ways.
Pay the pilots more and they will find they don't need pilots because nobody is flying on their airline as the tickets cost more.
What fraction of the price of an airline ticket is the price of paying the pilot? Quick back of the envelope calculation: somewhere around 1%. I'm guessing that a 1% change in ticket prices won't make much of a difference.
why train when they can get an 100K student loan to cover it.
100K isn't going to get you enough flight time to fly charters and is only a drop in the bucket towards the 1500 minimum hours to be an ATP. Especially when a small twin engine is going to run you $150+/hour and a flight instructor another $80. It's going to take YEARS to accrue enough flight time and at least $300K in flying expenses.
By my rough calculations you will blow a quarter of a million dollars in flight time and at least 5 years of living time before you can manage to land a charter pilot gig at about 800 hours. Then, it will take you another 5 years of being a busy charter pilot to get you near 1,500 hours, but you will be destitute trying to service your debt on that salary. Once you get to 1,500, you have the option of taking a ATP job with a feeder airline, flying awful routes in shoddy old aircraft for another 5-10 years before you can land a job at one of the majors, with 15 years experience and about 3,000 hours of time.
The pilot gig is not a comfortable one. You got to really love what you do to live like a pauper working the night shift away from home until you are 35 or older.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
I hear other jobs have the same issue, loss of job image, after certain poeple enter the employ.
A recent one turned on his advisors, and on his people, taking a murderer's word over theirs' on international television. That is one job that will never look as special as it did the day before that mindless fool was voted in. Not involving transportation, but it did have a lot lives on the line.
I have to admit, however, that job did start coming up short on good people that wanted to fill the role properly, a while before that one got the chance.
> h1b pilots
Other countries don't have shortages because they get paid a lot more. Why the hell would anyone want to get a visa to be a pilot here?
We're going to need a bigger boat^h^h^h^hplane.
Hmm...have you heard about all the foreign plane crashes past few years?
From everything I've read, at many foreign airports, especially where H1-B's would come from....they are a chaotic mess, not something we'd want to import "here"....that and language barrier between them and control towers.
Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
AC versus NBC News. Fight!
"A portrait of these hourly pay scales becomes even more pathetic when you consider that regional airline pilots, who are paid only from the time the airline leaves the gate to the time it arrives at the destination, only are on the clock on average about 21.5 hours per week."
"They have a minimum pay for time on duty at some airlines, like one hour of pay minimum for every two hours on duty, and one hour of pay for every 4-5 hours away from home,' Darby says. 'These rules are often not in effect at the smaller airlines, and are always guaranteed by the larger major airlines' union contracts."
Oooo... half-time pay, if you're lucky. Color me jealous.
Charters are going to take pilots that have turbine time and are type rated. FEW charter companies will touch you under 3,000 hours, and none will foot the bill for type ratings or check rides until you actually are their employee. That's on you. You *might* get some time flying specialized cargo or short passenger runs, but that's not going to be a regular paying job. Being a CFI would be much better for that, but that means you have to find a bunch of students with money, and all those PIC hours will mostly be single engine non-complex.
Flying piston aircraft for charters or cargo is a low probability because there simply isn't enough of that kind of thing going on here in the states. Nobody flies piston aircraft for cargo or charter, not anymore. Turbine gigs for cargo are even more limited. Why? FedX requires an ATP rating, UPS is similar and they fly nearly ALL the freight out there now.
Flying banners is an option, but there are not that many hours available for that as there are few places where this happens much. Where I live, they fly banners about 2 months out of the year because of the weather. Competition for these hours is going to be fierce because there are a LOT of guys with 500 hours dying to get PIC hours for free.
All in all, it's *really* hard to get enough PIC time without significant amounts of debt.
Personally, I think Airlines would be advised to supplement such business activities to get pilots enough hours to get their ratings, say supplement cargo businesses for low volume and unusual routes. Maybe they could supplement flight training schools or individual students and build a feeder program designed to get pilots hours built up at less cost to the students. Maybe provide promising pilots other working positions with suitable hours and access to low cost flight schools to allow them to quickly build hours and move into meaningful flying work sooner and faster.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
We need self flying planes. Oh wait we already do. Pilots work for 15 minutes at takeoff and 15 minutes at landing. The rest is autopilot.
Not even close, but let's assume that's true.
They are getting paid to be on call. Its very much like being a Fireman.
If you want me to be ready to put out those fires 30 minutes of every day then you have to pay me to sit on my thumbs for the rest of the day or I'll go find something else to do. My time is money. For someone with training as a pilot makes them very valuable for a lot of non-flying jobs. Airline pilots often have a college degree in mechanical engineering or something similar so they can get a jump on the technical training they'll see in flight school and look good on a resume for hiring. They'll speak English, because English is the language of international flying and other business. They will know weather patterns, mechanical systems, and just even knowing how to talk on a radio is a valuable skill. They don't have to fly a plane, they'll get a job doing something else if they think the pay is shit.
The FAA should easily allow 2000 hours flying time each year and also allow napping in cockpits while the autopilot is flying. Problem solved.
Do you even know how many hours are in a year? 24 * 365 = 8760. Let's go with 2500 hours of flying time, that's nearly 7 hours flying every day with no weekends, holidays, or vacation days, or sick days, off the clock. Or, that's nearly 30% of the year. A typical 9-to-5 job will have 40 hours per week for 50 weeks per year, 2000 hours.
Flying 1000 hours in a year, with all the dead time on the ground to wait for their next flight, weather delays, time off, and so forth, sounds about right.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
and, unless the Military paid for it, that cost is quite expensive.
You want to see ludicrous ? Go price what it will cost to be a commercial helicopter pilot.
Not sure what he's basing his statement on, but I worked for five years at an aerospace manufacturing company and worked with numerous pilots. Test pilots, charter pilots, transit pilots, corporate pilots, medevac pilots, some airline pilots. He is correct. It varies, but most places pay by flight hours. Airlines near always pay by flight hour There's a lot not covered in those flight hours. The rate is set to semi accurately reflect those hours. $50 per flight hour sounds good, but that caps you at $50k/yr due to FAA regulations on max flight hours.
It's entirely possible to fly from point A to point B with say... 4 flight hours in the air. With two hours of pre-flight, two hour flight, hour ish of post, 12 hours of sitting around, two hour pre-flight, two hours of flying, hopefully half an hour to and hour post, then home to hopefully sleep in your own bed. That's 4 hours of pay for 10-22 hours of work depending how you count it.
Being a commercial pilot sucks until you rack up seniority. If you're not former military pilot, the system is entirely rigged against you to the point you're near insane enough to try.
Developers work slave hours for increasingly shitty pay because we have no solidarity. Jealousy and infighting with our brothers in labor the airline pilots is the opposite of useful here.
Yes, because hiring inexperience pilots to fly their $100-400 million aircraft sounds like an extremely good investment to me...
--- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.