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Climate Change Will Cause Beer Shortages and Price Hikes, Study Says (vice.com)
A new study from Nature Plants has identified the one climate-related issue that can unite people from myriad political backgrounds -- beer. From a report: Led by Wei Xie, an agricultural scientist at Peking University, the paper finds that regions that grow barley, the primary crop used to brew beer, are projected to experience severe droughts and heat waves due to anthropogenic climate change. According to five climate models that used different projected temperature increases for the coming century, extreme weather events could reduce barley yields by 3 to 17 percent. Barley harvests are mostly sold as livestock fodder, so beer availability could be further hindered by the likely prioritization of grain yields to feed cattle and other farm animals, rather than for brewing beer.
The net result will be a decline in affordable access to beer, which is the most commonly imbibed alcoholic beverage in the world. Within a few decades, this luxury may be out of reach for hundreds of millions of people, including those in affluent nations where breweries are a major industry. Price spikes are estimated to range from $4 to over $20 for a standard six-pack in nations like the US, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland.
The net result will be a decline in affordable access to beer, which is the most commonly imbibed alcoholic beverage in the world. Within a few decades, this luxury may be out of reach for hundreds of millions of people, including those in affluent nations where breweries are a major industry. Price spikes are estimated to range from $4 to over $20 for a standard six-pack in nations like the US, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland.
Yes, that's the thing I was worried about with climate change.
A 3-17% yield decrease leads to a 80-350% increase in price? Call me skeptical, but this seems a bit out of band.
My ignorance is a perfect shield against your logic.
The types of Barley you use for beer making is completely different than animal feed. Animal feed is 6-row barley (ie on the grain head, there are six rows of seeds) while the barley used for beer is 2 row. (ie two rows of seed). This is mostly because 6 row has far more flavour involved chemicals in it, whereas 2 row is a much cleaner slate, suitable for things other than dark ales.
...si hoc legere nimium eruditionis habes...
Barley harvests are mostly sold as livestock fodder, so beer availability could be further hindered by the likely prioritization of grain yields to feed cattle and other farm animals, rather than for brewing beer.
Another good reason to stop eating meat.
Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
I like Tsingtao, so I tried another brand of Chinese beer. 'Sing Ha' (not the Thai malt liquor, the Chinese beer. Both apparently anglicise to almost the same name.)
Tried one, didn't finish it. Just awful.
Mentioned how bad it was to a couple of Chinese coworkers...their reaction...That's made with Shanghai city water, it will give you cancer, don't drink it. They're selling that in the USA? How is that possible?
This was a long time ago, 'poisonous chinese beer' ship has sailed.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
While your "logic" seems OK, I have no reason to doubt the author's research on the specific regions that produce barley. Actual, local, modeling is far more likely to produce accurate results that global ideas. I am not saying that your overall approach is wrong. If the author's research only looks at current locations for barley and what would happen to them, then that research is correct, but the conclusion is flawed. If the research also looks at new areas that can start to grown barley, then it would be reasonable methodology.
My real problem with the author is the lack of an economic model for the pricing spikes. Price spikes like this don't tend to happen unless the shortage is extreme. Pulling 10% from a source will not be prioritized to some other "more noble" product like animal feed. The market will use the product by whoever can pay the most for it. If beer production is impacted and price doubles, then beer production can pay a lot more, and the price will level out long before it doubles. Perhaps this is a bias based on "centrally controlled" economies. I don't think German barley farmers could be "told" to not sell to beer producers by the German or EU government, even if the government wanted to.
We all remember the newest justice telling us how much he still likes beer.
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
I guess it would depend on the beer.
America makes some good beers. I don't remember the last time I went to a party and someone actually served Budwiser or Coors beer. It was normally some sort of craft beer that actually has a a taste.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
In fact, There are Giant Clouds of Alcohol Floating in Space.
I'm a good cook. I'm a fantastic eater. - Steven Brust
I guess you mean "rainforest".
Incorrect. A rainforest is a SPECIFIC TYPE OF JUNGLE.
Definiton, Jungle:
"an area of land overgrown with dense forest and tangled vegetation, typically in the tropics."
Definition, Rainforest:
"a tropical forest, usually of tall, densely growing, broad-leaved evergreen trees in an area of high annual rainfall"
I love how you claimed I really meant a totally different word than the one I used, then proceeded to base a whole argument around the word you changed to...
You see, unlike you I have actually travelled to a lot of places around the Earth, so I have actually been in many different kinds of biomes (I included the link since you seem to have a problem, understanding the meanings of words)
There are many jungles that exist on the edge of the ocean, that do not exist because it is "evaporating water out of its own area (unless you consider the ocean to be it's area??? Urgh.)". I am really, really curious in fact where you got the idea that even rainforests were some kind of totally self-contained ecosystem since that is not the case either (do you really think all of the water comes from the area the rainforest is in? Oh honey).
Deserts work the exact same way. They are dry because they evapour the non existing water
No. Mr "evapour" . You may want to study what makes a region desert (and I'll just assume you are thanking me now for learning there are different kinds of desert). Also wondering what makes you think even what you said in any way disputes my point that deserts are mostly geologically created features.
Yeah ... Europe had 2 million inhabitants at that time ... perhaps less.
That completely orthogonal point doesn't change the fact that regions of agricultural use expanded. Why would it? You seem to be utterly confused here to where what you are saying is complete nonsense.
I'll let you have the last response, it was great to be able to use your very limited understanding of the world as an educational platform but you obviously have nothing intelligent to add to the conversation - I think we've extracted all of the learning points possible from you at this point so I don't see any point in reading what you have to say further.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
It's an interplanetary treaty thing. It can look, taste and smell exactly the same but you can't call it beer unless it came from Earth.
I do not block ads. I do block third party scripts.
I have no reason to doubt the author's research on the specific regions that produce barley.
They aren't using research on specific regions, the paper says they are using CMIP5 for future predictions, which is very non-specific (by the way that link is the closest I could find for what they were trying to link to, since the link in the paper itself is actually broken).
They may know a lot about the regions producing barley but as far as I could tell didn't have a very strong explanation for predictions they were giving as to changes in that region.
Am I the only one who tried to read the paper? It doesn't seem like a greta paper and the links they use for further evidence are not at all specific.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
2 years later, you're still posting the same wrong things.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
The sad thing is, those of us that really would like to take issues like this seriously wind up getting lumped in with the hysterical Chicken Littles.
Indeed. TFA is Chicken Littleism at its worst. It is based on ridiculous assumptions. It assumes that barley will still be grown in the same fields. Obviously, as the climate changes the "barley belt" will shift northwards. It assumes that using barley as livestock feed will take priority over brewing, which is unlikely. Lastly, it assumes that the cost of barley is a significant factor in the price of beer. The barley in a pint of beer costs less than a cent.
so beer availability could be further hindered by the likely prioritization of grain yields to feed cattle and other farm animals, rather than for brewing beer.
Dumbest set of priorities ever!
politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
the soil up there may not be nearly as fertile
Or it may be more fertile. I can't find anything about barley specifically, but wheat has higher yields per acre in the northern part of its range (average of 46 bushels/acre in the USA, but 49 in Canada).
the temperature swings will be wild
Barley is frost tolerant.
with short turbulent growing seasons...
The whole point of shifting north is that the growing seasons are getting longer. Also the hours of summer daylight needed for photosynthesis increases as you go north.
I like beer :-)
Really? Do you know Brett?
Not that I can recall :-)
Greed is the root of all evil.
no, it isn't guaranteed, and in some case there could be a reversion as some crop/vegetable need a certain medium low stable temperature which could actually with a more chaotic continental climate, not be a given, and thus in some case we could have for certain country a lower yield.
C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
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visit randi.org
If it has corn in it, it's not beer by definition.
You are thinking of Buttwieser.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'