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Climate Modeller Wins $10,000 Wager Against Solar Physicists, Fails To Collect (blogspot.com)
Layzej writes: Back in 2005, solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev made a $10,000 bet that global temperatures, driven primarily by changes in the Sun's activity, would fall over the next decade. The bet would compare the then record hot years between 1998 to 2003 with that between between 2012 and 2017. With temperatures falling from their peak during the 1998 super El-Nino, and solar output continuing to fall, this seemed like a sure bet. The results are now in and all datasets show that climate modeler James Annan is the clear winner.
At the time of the wager, Annan had supposed that the reputation of the scientists involved would be enough to ensure payment once the bet was settled. Unfortunately, as was the case with Alfred Russel Wallace's famous 1870 bet against flat-Earthers, the losing parties have refused to pay up.
"More precisely, Bashkirtsev is refusing to pay," writes the climate modeler on his blog, "and Mashnich is refusing to even reply to email.
"With impressive chutzpah, Bashkirtsev proposed we should arrange a follow-up bet which he would promise to honour."
At the time of the wager, Annan had supposed that the reputation of the scientists involved would be enough to ensure payment once the bet was settled. Unfortunately, as was the case with Alfred Russel Wallace's famous 1870 bet against flat-Earthers, the losing parties have refused to pay up.
"More precisely, Bashkirtsev is refusing to pay," writes the climate modeler on his blog, "and Mashnich is refusing to even reply to email.
"With impressive chutzpah, Bashkirtsev proposed we should arrange a follow-up bet which he would promise to honour."
Say no more. Say no more...
Anyone denying the reality of anthropogenic climate change while at the same time claiming to uphold scientific integrity has none to begin with.
But they still can't answer: What is Winter Sunlight?
You'll never have to deal with those scumbags again, and it only cost you $10k.
If they had paid up, you'd never hear the end of them.
Why would anyone dishonest enough to deny climate change be considered honest enough to honor a wager?
Anecdotally, this summer has been the coolest and wettest I can remember in at least 60 years or more. The average first frost date is November 4th. We had a hard freeze of 27F three weeks early, which followed a 5" snow on Oct 14th. Elephants and Giraffe in Africa are wading through 10" of a late spring snow. While claiming such snow falls are common the news media are still making a big deal of it, so it must not be as common as some claim. How many times in the past have you seen photos of elephants in Africa wading through deep snow?
https://www.msn.com/en-za/trav...
And, why would he pay of the "winner" had the advantage of being supported by fudged data?
https://realclimatescience.com...
https://science.house.gov/news...
https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...
AGW is all about dialectical materialism: the transfer of wealth from the West to Marxist countries via "Carbon Credits", which made Al Gore a millionaire.
http://variable-variability.bl...
IOW, Climate Change is used by Globalists to justify their push toward Marxist "solutions" to all problems. They have their "Arm and Hammer" and they see every problem as a nail requiring hits from their hammer.
Running with Linux for over 20 years!
These researchers must be pretty poor. After paying out $10k, all they'd be able to afford to eat is Crow.
Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
WTF, really?
Truth isn't Truth - Guliani
All the AC posters are russian trolls, and if they delete the post., the underlying comments get fucked.
I no longer post to AC's.
Truth isn't Truth - Guliani
Loaning someone $20, and them not paying you back is a great way to never deal with them again.
"You still owe me, I'm not giving you shit."
One of my nephews lost out on $1200 worth of car troubles for $20.
Fuck them if they don't pay, he has no currency. (paul simon, if you don't get it.) ... ...
He holds no currency
He is a foreign man
Truth isn't Truth - Guliani
They should be shamed and have their reputation ruined.
instead of this physics crap.
[($)]
I didn't realize ShanghaiBill was an AC now. But I'm posting AC myself, so pointing out this obvious fact is now clearly Russian disinformation and you're safe to continue ignoring the obvious.
Carry on, then!
In the future for such bets, put the money in an escrow account managed by an independent, trust worthy banker. There could be some other way to keep the up front money safe that are possible. There might even be some interest earned over the years.
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell
the closest thing to reportage here is links to a blog and also a graph of some sort i honestly don't have time to bother figuring out. it looks like temperature readings from... somewhere? someone?, hosted by "woodfortrees.org", which seem to support the claims of the blog post. um, okay? who the fuck are these people?
no, i'm not accusing slashdot editors of political bias. that is precluded by hanlon's razor, as they have already proven themselves utterly incompetent.
nor am i claiming that the story is even false. i just have no strong reason to believe it's true yet.
"They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
You wanna make a bet? We both pay the middleman NOW. Then the winner gets paid out by the middleman.
No getting out of the bet.
A lot of people (here, especially) reject the 'appeal to expert' logical fallacy. It takes some form of 'experts say' and related. They want to see the data and decide for themselves. Whenever they hear an appeal to expert, it turns them off. But if I don't have the time or expertise to delve into the data, one can accept suitably formed appeals.
Some part of the response to climate change does involve power grabs and redistribution.
It is important to separate the question of whether there is global warming or anthropogenic global warming, and the responses to it.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals...
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." - H. G. Wells
Look, if you're going to put all you money on sun activity and say that the temps will drop then you are denying human activity is a factor. Otherwise you're not very good scientist with modeling. You cannot bet on temps dropping without being a climate science denier. The two are mutually exclusive.
Solar activity is in decline, so he thought it would be a good bet he'd win. I don't think he was denying climate change, he simply did the math and thought the solar decline would overcompensate for the global warming and was way way wrong.
Anyone who thought he'd pay is gullible. It's like "I'll pay 1 million dollars if you have Native American ancestry in your DNA", it's hyperbole design to seem like you're confident, when actually you're a lying sack of shit who conspires with murderer friends of your son in law, to coverup a taped vivisection of a living Washington Post journalist.
See, how "not evil" he is, when you have Jared helping someone coverup dissecting a living human being, to compare with, this other stuff is really minor.
Is that what the news on slashdot is now... every time two random dudes make a bet, if one does not pay up, it's an article on slashdot?
On the plus side, there is going to be a lot of articles
Never antropomorphize computers, they do not like that
this summer has been the coolest and wettest I can remember in at least 60 years or more.
So what?
... Or a Nazi ... Or a misogynist
This NPC needs a better script. The upgraded NPC's now post links to their favorite well funded science PACs where there's "data".
You have to be a pathetic, low-self-esteem, disrespectful, probably-in-denial idiot to ignore others' sensible requests. Same ideas apply to those stupid enough to think that generic, hypocrite, saying-nothing, dishonest communication is welcome anywhere. All of them belong to the same type of low-life forms with a tremendous misconception about very basic things like the exact value of their contributions to others.
Logically, I don't know the specifics and that behaviour might have even made a bit of sense under the given conditions (after having tried hard enough to reason with that person, it was undoubtedly proven that no communication was possible). But, in principle, my opinion of a person doing something on these lines is quite bad, because of the punctual lack of respect and, more importantly, the personality traits (defects) which usually implies.
Custom Solvers 2.0 = Alvaro Carballo Garcia = varocarbas.
Hitler had the right idea killing off Russians, Bolsheviks, and Gypsies, don't think anyone else would be too sad to see them gone either. But he went too far in his methed-out lunacy and fascism was ironically ultimately defeated by the Jew physicists he threw out of Germany. Germany might possibly be running the world today if not for their antisemitism.
Still have yet to figure out anything that all of Russia, communism, or Gypsies have contributed to the world other than mass murder and theft. Jews have done a hell of a lot more than any of them; they did nothing other than succeed at the rules imposed on them by the rest of Europe and Europe duly punished them for their success. But they got Europe back by giving nuclear weapons to the United States. What goes around comes around or will be invented, I guess.
Threaten to gift the marker to the local mafioso. I guarantee payment (with interest) will be in your account by morning.
They are deniers, moron,as are you. Anything But Carbon is the denier mantra.
So they whinge that the temperature has gone down over 12 years while CO2 levels rose. That ONLY makes sense when they are insisting that the climate is being driven by only one variable.
They then scream IT'S THE SUN!!!!! because that too pretends that the climate is a single variable system.
So, yeah, every denier pretty much insists it is a single variable system, they all use either one of those two "arguments" to rebut AGW science.
So thare is no nazi (so where are the people who claim they ARE nazis coming from?), there is no russian troll (so why all the proof from criminal investigations?), there are no misogynists (so why so many people in poer tell women to STFU when asking a question but NOT when a man then stands up and asks the same question?).
Tell me, does ANYONE exist in your world?
or even reverses the result. Just in the recent year, and entire continent (Australia) worth of data was discovered to have been tempered with.
Why does such a vertain theory need so much data fraud?
The term in context means that he deniers AGW. For a group of morons who whinge "Stop calling me holocaust deniers" when called a denier, you are REALLY quick to proclaim denial must mean something else.
But only those who want to believe believe either in the facts of AIG or the facts of your "scientists" that proclaim the temps have been tampered with.
They whinged that the UHI was causing the warming, yet when the effect of UHI is removed, they proclaimed it was "tampering". Ensuring that there will be no data they accept, except ones that give the answer they want.
Just like AIG.
That makes it a pure ad hom. And a genetic fallacy too: if it's "from the left" it "must be wrong".
No, they would not have made the bet if they merely underestimated it.
The far left are almost nonexistent, whilst the far right is pretty much ALL OF THE RIGHT.
A murderer of one kitten is not equal to Pol Pot, and anyone pretending that such disparity is meaningless in either case is a lying partisan fuckwit.
You don't get to proclaim that someone saying you're wrong that "you made the claim I am wrong, prove it". Though that IS what morons of all stripes (especially religious nuts, and libertarianism and free market rightwing neocon ideologies are: pure religion) do.
The far left are almost nonexistent
lol
In context it means "denies AGW", or do you think that AGW is not climate change?
Bet something normal like $20 or a steak dinner. No need to wave your cock around over these science bets, unless... It was all for the publicity.
“Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
Was the bet with Galina?
It could have been a "woman's bet "
which works like this:
If I win you pay, if you win I don't pay because "reasons"
there is not one society that I know of that really will deal with a known welcher
Not even Wales? Their whole culture is built around welsh. To them, actions come before facts so often that the verb comes first in the sentence.
Can you have all three if you replace the banker with a credit unioner?
The question is, can you see?
Lots of places with Earth temp but I see no data on Sun temp yearly. Would be nice to see the two charts side by side. All I see is Earth temp and them saying it went up. Nothing about if maybe they were wrong about the Sun temps going down and maybe that forecast was wrong and the Sun temp went up.
On the contrary. We had been heading back into a glacial period over the last 6000 years... until the industrial revolution when something happened to abruptly reverse the trend.
The bet was well published when it was first made so if you had been paying attention in the right places you would have heard about it.
If you look up "Scientific Wager" in google, chances are at least a couple of the top ten results reference this bet. For example, here and here.
...and continue to make wildly wrong predictions vs. mainstream climate science. News at 11.
Seriously though, climate denialism (or more accurately, climate conspiracism) is the most dangerous form of denialism/conspiracism known to man. Anti-vaxxers, holocaust denialists, they're horribly offensive and can cause greater short-term harm, but in the medium/long term they're mildly annoying pissants compared to the planet-baking, civilization-ruining potential of climate denialism. Nobody holds as much potential to sabotage humanity's future as these assholes. And when you get down to it, they're doing it solely out of partisan tribalism these days - even their arguments about economic harm have become a fully laughable farce as renewable energy has become the cheaper and and more domestically sourced form of energy, and the bills for global warming have begun to show up in the form of frequent powerful storms hitting the US and refugee crises around the world.
All they're accomplishing is keeping fossil company CEOs in the money instead of renewable company CEOs under the presumption that the fossil company CEOs will be more conservative. Which might be correct as a self-fulfilling prophecy, since they've made themselves the enemies of renewable energy - even if a renewable energy CEO is a Randroid who would benefit from wealth transfers to the 1% and the general cyberpunkification of the world that conservatism brings, he's not going to donate to the party that wants his business dead.
"When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
The "warming" is actually more like ...
Not even close. Even over 50 years the trend is closer to 0.2/decade:
GISTEMP Least squares trend line; slope = 0.177 per decade over the last 50 years.
BEST Least squares trend line; slope = 0.178 per decade over the last 50 years.
But of course this has continued to accelerate so over the last couple decades you get:
GISTEMP Least squares trend line; slope = 0.21 per decade over the last 20 years.
BEST Least squares trend line; slope = 0.20 per decade over the last 20 years.
RSS Satellite data (which doesn't extend back 50 years) Least squares trend line; slope = 0.20 per decade over the last 20 years.
And your assertion requires you "comprehend" maths that isn't even there. NOWHERE is the probabilities given. The deniermoron "model" didn't use CO2 levels, only the sun.
How can you be so reasonable -- this is SLASHDOT!
You're obviously NOT thinking of the CHILDREN!
He sang it after all. Paul Simon just played a sax.
Both parties should put the bet into escrow with the winner taking all.
What do you expect from a couple of Russians? Their culture is steeped in dishonesty.