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Chinese Privately Developed Rocket Fails To Reach Orbit (reuters.com)
schwit1 shares a report: A privately developed Chinese carrier rocket failed to reach orbit after lifting off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on Saturday, in a blow to the country's nascent attempts by private companies to rival Elon Musk's SpaceX. The three-stage rocket, Zhuque-1, was developed by Beijing-based Landspace. The company said in a microblog post after nominal first and second stages that the spacecraft failed to reach orbit as a result of an issue with the third stage. "Before Zhuque carrier rocket was launched, its mission was already completed," the company said in the post on Saturday, without giving further details.
It sucks their rocket didn't make it, but remember too, SpaceX's early rockets didn't make it to orbit either. The whole company almost went bust before they got one to work.
Now they are shaking up the entire launch industry.
Chinese companies will have plenty of government support and they will succeed. That is a matter of when not if.
The only "privately developed" part is the Chinese characters painted on the side
"I meant it to do that!"
I see many, many space startups trying to build a very small, cheap launcher for very small satellites, or even cubesats. They are all bullshitting their investors - the market just does not exist.
All of them *want* to be in the full satellite launch business. Stuff in the grade of Atlas V, Soyuz, or Falcon 9. 2 to 4 tons of payload to LEO is about the smallest you can do cost-effectively, and 8 to 12 tons is the bulk of the market, and there's demand for larger still.
Everyone is copying SpaceX's business plan. Use initial funds to build a small orbital launcher (like Falcon 1), and then once you've proven you can put something into space, use that to secure funding to build an actual usable rocket (note that, as soon as they got funding for Falcon 9, they never flew Falcon 1 again, even though it shared parts with early Falcon 9s). Even Blue Origin built a suborbital tourist rocket before transitioning to their heavy-lift New Glenn - granted, Blue Origin was founded before SpaceX so they can't exactly be copying them.
This is not exclusive to China - Firefly (US) has their Alpha and Beta, OneSpace (China) has their OS-M1 upgraded sounding rocket, ExPace (China) has a whopping three rockets in their planned Kuaizhou series, Interstellar (Japan) has their Zero, LinkSpace (China) has New Line 1 which clearly implies a NL-2, Orbex (UK) has their Prime, and Rocket Lab (US) has Electron. All of them are competing for a market that just doesn't exist.
LandSpace is barely disguising their intentions. Zhuque-1 is a 300kg-to-LEO firecracker. All solid motors, which is just a terrible way to build an orbital rocket, but I expect they're using off-the-shelf parts (what's the Chinese counterpart to the GEM series?). Zhuque-2 is a much more reasonable 4000kg-to-LEO, methalox rocket. So the chemistry is different, the plumbing is different, the structure is different, even the launchpad is going to have to be different... what can they reuse from Zhuque-1, the avionics?
There is demand for a tiny-sat launcher. That much isn't a lie. But it's demand for a very, very low-cost launcher. Nobody's going to shell out a couple million bucks for a cubesat launch. Get the price down to $100K, sure, you'll be doing business, but all the newspace tiny-sat launchers I've seen are in the ballpark of $5M. Well, Falcon 9 is $50M a pop, and can do 20 tons worth of payload. There's a launch next month specifically for tiny satellites - specifically, 64 different satellites, mostly cubesats. Average price? Just under that $1M apiece figure.
So who would book a super-small launcher? Someone who doesn't need much in the way of payload - a small satellite, not requiring much power or designed to last all that long, but either going into a very strange orbit that no rideshare would go to, or needing to launch at very short notice. As far as I can tell, such customers just don't exist.
It's almost like the dotcom bubble - tons of companies burning through investor cash on a scheme to raise more investor cash. At least their planned second rockets are something that could actually be profitable. Going to be rough to compete with the oldspace companies, many of which are government-sponsored (ULA, Ariane), as well as the first-gen newspace companies (SpaceX, Blue Origin), who have a big lead on the technology. I doubt they'll all be successful... but I think one or two will make it. Which ones, I don't know.
And den ? And den and den and den and den
Americans haven't really wrapped their brain around China. Many apparently believe that China is somehow incapable of being a serious rival to the US without cheating.
One in five people on Earth lives in China; one in twenty in the US. The Chinese economy is currently about 2/3 the size of the US economy, ten years ago that figure was 1/3. And just this year, China surpassed the US in number of scientific papers published.
China is fully capable of becoming a serious technological, military and economic rival to the US without cheating. And it is willing to cheat. Without foreign scientists immigrating to the US, there's no way we can keep up with them through mid-century.
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China is in serious risk of falling into the middle income trap. The debt implosion is going to hit and it only a matter of when. When it does, at this level of debt China may never be able to attain parity with Japan or South Korea due to its massive population and demographic makeup.
Depends on what you mean by "parity". China is already immensely more militarily powerful than either of those countries. In space, China launches twice as many payloads as Japan does, and South Korea has only launched one orbital mission -- and that was on a rocket with the first stage bought from Russia.
China may never reach parity on a median-income basis, but it is already immensely more powerful than either South Korea or Japan economically and militarily, and in selected areas technologically.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
Americans haven't really wrapped their brain around China. Many apparently believe that China is somehow incapable of being a serious rival to the US without cheating.
One in five people on Earth lives in China; one in twenty in the US. The Chinese economy is currently about 2/3 the size of the US economy, ten years ago that figure was 1/3. And just this year, China surpassed the US in number of scientific papers published.
China is fully capable of becoming a serious technological, military and economic rival to the US without cheating. And it is willing to cheat. Without foreign scientists immigrating to the US, there's no way we can keep up with them through mid-century.
Yes and no. Your argument has many valid points, but let's not forget that they cheat a LOT. I suggest you do some reading on China's "Ghost Cities" which were built with the sole purpose of keeping the economy going. A city the size of Los Angeles constructed every couple of weeks.. Yet nobody lives in them.. China cannot do that forever, they'd run out of room. Having a booming economy is great.. But not so much when it's a false boom.
I don't know what their long term goals are, but this rocket is competition with Rocket Lab's Electron rocket, not SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.
Zhuque: (alternative news source)
Mass at launch 27 tonnes, 300 kg payload to 300 km LEO or 200 kg to 500 km sun synchronous orbit.
Electron:
Mass at launch 10.5 tonnes, 150-225 kg payload to 500 km sun synchronous orbit
Falcon 9:
Mass at launch 549 tonnes, 22,800 kg payload to LEO in expendable mode.
There are about a dozen companies looking to compete in this ~200kg payload market. Rocket Lab are in the lead at the start of this race, but there is still a long way to go.
Quattuor res in hoc mundo sanctae sunt: libri, liberi, libertas et liberalitas.
The ghost cities were built to try to tackle the overcrowding of preexisting cities. Problem is they forgot people move to cities because of the jobs, not just because it's a city, so everyone kept moving to Shanghai and ignored the empty cities.
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The "nobody lives in them" hasn't been true for a long time. The ghost cities are mostly settled by now.
China built these cities to a specified size instead of growing them slowly so they could achieve certain economies of scale. The boon is that they don't need to modify anything to accomodate the growing population of these cities.
"It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
And just this year, China surpassed the US in number of scientific papers published.
Only this year? China is behind several other Asian and European countries then. US scientific output has been falling for decades.
"That's the way to do it" - Punch
Remains to be seen, but no one at the time could have foreseen the fall of the Soviet Union. Say what you will about China's progress, I still say it's un-democratic government will ultimately be it's undoing. Time will tell, but the US might not have to do anything to "surpass China".
Life is not for the lazy.
After their empire expansion into Asia, Africa, Middle East, and South America bankrupts them.
Life is not for the lazy.
Even assuming this is true for the moment, I'm not going to pretend it will be the case forever. I know enough talented Chinese researchers who are doing good work, and I see enough papers in high-quality journals with all-Chinese author lists, to see the shift coming. Either we play together, or we risk losing.
"Nothing shocks me. I'm a scientist." -Indiana Jones