Slashdot Mirror


Experts Urge US To Continue Support For Nuclear Fusion Research (scientificamerican.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Scientific American: A panel of 19 scientists drawn from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recommended yesterday that the Department of Energy should continue an international experiment on nuclear fusion energy and then develop its own plan for a "compact power plant." A panel of 19 scientists drawn from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recommended yesterday that the Department of Energy should continue an international experiment on nuclear fusion energy and then develop its own plan for a "compact power plant."

But as the National Academies' report noted, major challenges must be overcome to reach these goals, beginning with how to contain and control a burning "plasma" of extremely hot gas, ranging from 100 million to 200 million degrees Celsius, that can produce more heat than it consumes. The report calls the resulting plasma "a miniature sun confined inside a vessel." The world's biggest experiment intended to create and draw energy from burning plasma is under construction at Cadarache, France. It's called the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, and its centerpiece is a large, doughnut-shaped, Russian-inspired reactor called a tokamak. Several member nations have already developed their own national programs, and the assembled National Academies experts concluded that the United States should eventually follow, once the ITER experiment shows there are ways to contain and manipulate a sustained fusion reaction. "It is the next critical step in the development of fusion energy," says the report.

136 of 234 comments (clear)

  1. Another great reason not to worry too much by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    The thing about reports that try and forecast how much CO2 we are omitting, is all of them are based on current technology.

    They don't take into account technological breakthroughs, especially on the order of magnitude of getting a working fusion reactor...

    Overnight the entire world's energy makeup would change, as such reactors became widespread.

    No we don't know this exact thing will pan out, but when people are talking about problems even 80 years from now - that is a LONG time for lots of amazing technology to come along. It's certainly been the case that even just over the last 20 years a lot of things are around now that were not dreamed of, nor thought possible back then.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by AlanObject · · Score: 1

      Bitcoin is on my list.

    2. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by ClickOnThis · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It sounds like you're saying we don't need to worry about our current CO2 outputs because technology will just come along that solves the problem effortlessly.

      If only. Managing CO2 atmospheric levels is a difficult problem whose solution spans geography, cultures, economies, political systems ... it's not just about technology. Leaving it all up to The Invisible Hand of technological progress is wishful thinking that we just can't afford. We need to make plans and set goals.

      Scientists and engineers have been trying to get a fusion reactor to work for decades. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see a working fusion reactor in our lifetimes. But it's a mistake to depend on a technology that is, however worthy, still not viable yet. Wind, solar, tide, geothermal -- and yes, nuclear fission -- are all proven technologies that are not perfect but are viable now.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
    3. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by presidenteloco · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You deliberately pretend that you don't understand that we have to reduce emissions drastically right now, and actually have to get to negative emissions (taking CO2 out of the atmosphere) as well, because we've gone too far, because of denialists like you.

      You hold out that some tech 50 years from now will save us from global warming. We are already at 1 C above pre-industrial-revolution global average temperature, and we have already locked in probably 1.5 C above pre-industrial-revolution global average temperature, and on our current trajectory we're heading for 4 to 5 C above, which is a different kind of planet than humanity has ever known.

      Whatever we do right now will start bending the curve in 50 to 100 years. That's how frickin' big this problem and system is. That's how long it takes to turn this Titanic (climate trends) so we have to start immediately and drastically.

      You undoubtedly know all this but your agenda is to keep feeding uncertainty to the ignorant. You are an intergenerational criminal.

      --

      Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
    4. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by The+Original+CDR · · Score: 4, Funny

      What things 20 years ago were never dreamed of or thought possible? I am interested. I can't think of a single one.

      Microsoft ditching Internet Explorer for an open source web browser. Miracles and wonders abound!

    5. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      The problem is that to "solve" the "problem" in the manner you describe would require a global governance. And this would be an inescapable tyranny, which would gather power after power to itself and be utterly unanswerable to the people. The cure is worse than the disease.

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    6. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by markdavis · · Score: 1

      The problem is that to "solve" the "problem" in the manner you describe would require a global governance

      No it doesn't. It just requires that scientists share their findings and work together. They already do this, especially on large projects based around pure science.

      It is unfortunate it is taking so long to develop workable fusion power, but it is a rather complex problem to solve. I do wish more resources were put into it- it is one of the best-hope projects being done to "change the world." Unlimited, cheap, safe power would be one the best thing humans could ever do right now.

    7. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      This is exactly the most dangerous kind of thinking. There is no reason to believe that a fusion power plant is any less likely than any of the other pie-in-the-sky schemes to control global CO2. As this article infers, fusion research is paid for with surplus tax money from various world governments (ignoring Lockheed and other private programs). That kind of money comes from increased economic activity which is directly correlated with the amount of fossil fuels that are burned. Restricting the free flow of energy only serves to decrease economic activity, which decreases net available surplus taxation to be dedicated to these kinds of projects. Experience shows us that massive, direct, concerted efforts are the only ways to make massive breakthroughs of this type, for example the Manhattan Project. This kind of underfunding and hemming and hawing on what we know to be the best option for the future of Humanity's energy needs, is what will lead directly to massive CO2 levels in the future, if current models are to be believed. Only ignorance of the history of technology and economics can lead one to favor a "slow-trickle" approach to fusion.

      Make helium, not war.

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    8. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Microsoft ditching Internet Explorer for an open source web browser. Miracles and wonders abound!

      Not only is it unexpected, it's also probably for the worse, which is an even more unexpected thing. The web was not good as an IE monoculture and it's moving dangerously close to a chromium monoculture.

      About the only reason google isn't now as bad as microsoft is because thye can't seem to keep one idea in their collective head for more than about 5 minutes before deprecating it.

      Embrace, ext... oh look, a squirrel!

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    9. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Lets not forget bio fuels. Our gasoline, diesel and jet fuel does not need to come from petroleum. It can come from biological processes so that these fuels become carbon neutral.

      No, we need to forget about bio-fuels.

      I saw the math on how much land, fresh water, and other resources needed for bio-fuels, and how much we actually get back from it, and bio-fuels are worthless. This cannot be fixed with genetically engineered algae, or improved farming techniques. The problem is that the highly diffuse sunlight is being converted to fuel, and no matter how you do it, or how efficiently it is done, there is a minimum amount of land needed to collect a given amount of energy. Bio-fuels compete with cropland for this sunlight and so long as people eat food the competition between food and fuel will not end well for anyone.

      Internal combustion engines and jet turbine engines are not the problem, its only the *current* source of their fuel.

      I can agree with that. There's ways to convert any given electrical source into liquid fuels suited for aircraft engines and other internal combustion engines. The US Navy developed such a process for the purpose of producing aviation fuel on nuclear powered aircraft carriers. This technology need not exist only on a ship at sea, put a nuclear power plant on any coast and it can produce the fuels we need. And do so without the need for land and fresh water like crops do.

    10. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      There is no reason to believe that a fusion power plant is any less likely than any of the other pie-in-the-sky schemes to control global CO2.

      While that's true, that only applies to the other pie-in-the-sky schemes, and not to the credible ones. Therefore, you really said absolutely nothing useful there.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    11. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by mark_reh · · Score: 1

      Over night? After they get the first reactor working, how many more years will it take to come up with a commercially viable design? How long will it take to build enough of them to replace all the coal and gas fired power plants? You must have long nights where you live.

    12. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by morethanapapercert · · Score: 1
      It's my understanding and experience that reputable forecasters always phrase things like : "If this trend continues..." or "Without substantive change in the way we do X, Y is the likely result."

      In my opinion, that isn't just weasel wording to cover themselves if their predictions turn out to be off or even completely wrong. They are challenges to drive further research, free debates on how to achieve the desired changes and so on. Once we accept that trend X is likely to result in Y, then we can take a good hard look at what we can do to change the X trend line. As you point out, advances in technology often change what really results, ending in a wrong prediction. But socio-economic factors also affect environmental predictions as well. If we double efficiency in something, we halve the cost and in some cases that actually results in larger consumption than we started with, as the thing becomes more accessible to the masses.My pet example isn't the CFL and LED bulbs I've seen elsewhere, but air conditioning. Some of the hottest places in the world are also the poorest. If having a/c becomes half as costly because of advances in power generation OR in economic factors like subsidies or economic booms, a/c adoption in those areas will skyrocket. Doubling of efficiency in food production can cause population booms, which in turn drive more energy consumption and so on.

      There are two logical fallacies that seem to be core to the human condition and hence core to the political rhetoric we see on climate and energy issues.

      1) People knee jerk reject predictions that don't fit their existing biases. And as a result will attack minor or even irrelevant aspects of a predictions and then act that being able to find fault in one thing means the entire prediction is therefore invalid. Look at how climate change deniers attack climate predictions.

      2) A wrong prediction, where things turn out better than the worst case scenario is actually a success. Through a combination of things, we were able to avert the worst case. But many people just focus on "the scientists got that wrong, how can we trust them to get this other thing right?" When, arguably, what we should be doing is looking at what we did to contribute to that good result and increase our efforts in that area.

      Ultimately, nobody can make 100% accurate predictions about the future. We certainly can't say "things will follow this curve until $tech is discovered/invented, at which point the data will look like this" All we can do is look at the data we have, apply our best available reasoning to that data and make reasonable extrapolations.

      --
      I need a wheelchair van for my son. Help me get the word out. https://www.gofundme.com/wheelchair-van-for-jj
    13. Re:Another great reason not to worry too much by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 1

      I had not thought of it this way, but I tend to agree. I would think that anyplace suitable for biofuel production and agriculture would also be suitable, at least part of the year, for solar, and I believe we can recover the energy form sunlight more efficiently that way, all other things being equal. Solar has an additional inherent advantage over biofuels in that many areas not suitable for agriculture or aquaculture, for various reasons, may still be suitable for solar. Now, biofuel production may compete with fossil fuels in terms of cheap production and storage of liquid fuels. As long as it is more efficient than the combination of solar energy plus conversion of that energy into fuels suitable for automotive transportation, it may have a viable and sustainable niche, notwithstanding the above.

  2. MIT has a plan for successful fusion energy by valles · · Score: 2

    It's over an hour long, if you want to skip to the cost/planning information, skip to 55:13 http://www.psfc.mit.edu/news/m...

    1. Re:MIT has a plan for successful fusion energy by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 1

      Peer review means bugger all in the social "sciences". A few notable (and struggling) individuals aside, the field has become an incredible dystopian echo chamber of pseudoscience.

      --
      If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
  3. Endless examples, just look around by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    What things 20 years ago were never dreamed of or thought possible?

    Who thought we would be landing rockets vertically with reusable boosters?

    Rovers going for years on end on Mars?

    But really you could just google countless examples if you actually cared, like this one

    And that's from 2011.... here's a (newer?) one...

    I can't think of a single one.

    If you really can't think of any examples, I feel very very sorry for you. :-(. The world is amazing! Wake up!

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Endless examples, just look around by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure what from those lists you linked were unimaginable 20 years ago. In fact, I'm not sure which ones didn't exist 20 years ago. Except some of the stupid pop-culture things (e.g. crab fishing reality shows).

      Opportunity was launched in 15 years ago, so if they planned/built for 5 years before launch, it's over 20. And that's only the record holder. We've been landing rover-like things for 48 years.

      There are some things I think could qualify, but not many, and none you brought up.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    2. Re:Endless examples, just look around by quenda · · Score: 1

      Who thought we would be landing rockets vertically with reusable boosters?

      Rovers going for years on end on Mars?

      20 years ago, our expectations had already come crashing down. The predictions of "Lost in Space", "2001 A Space Odyssey", "The Jetsons" etc etc had all failed to materialise. No moonbase, no flying cars. The lesson is not to cover your ears and rely on magicial technological advancement in the short term.

          I wonder if the people of Easter Island were also saying "don't worry"?

    3. Re:Endless examples, just look around by msauve · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "The predictions of "Lost in Space", "2001 A Space Odyssey", "The Jetsons" etc etc had all failed to materialise."

      I think you deliberately left out "Brave New World" and "1984" because those _have_ come true.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    4. Re:Endless examples, just look around by msauve · · Score: 2

      "Who thought we would be landing rockets vertically with reusable boosters?"

      Private enterprise, FTW!

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    5. Re: Endless examples, just look around by lucasnate1 · · Score: 1

      How the fuck can the predictions of 1984 and brave new world come true TOGETHER?

    6. Re:Endless examples, just look around by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      "Never dreamed of" is an incredibly high standard. Science fiction and fantasy exist to reach beyond current limitations, and to inspire ideas to strive for. So many of our outrageous realities were described in fiction, such as private industry surging past government programs to create a space program. That was dreamed of by Robert Heinlein in "The Man Who Sold the Moon". The ideas of a poor desert culture with funding from ownership of a critical resource fomenting religious fanaticism and destructive, guerrilla warfare effectively against a larger and more civilized society was described by Frank Herbert in "Dune".

      The unimagined or unexpected are not purely techologoical, but social. Lyft and Uber were unexpected. The chemical castration of children to "delay puberty" and "perserve their choice of gender" is unexpected and quite shocking, though fiction described it in the name of planned evolution.

    7. Re:Endless examples, just look around by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Uh, the first vertical landing rocket was demonstrated in 1961.

      We're talking about the first successful vertical landing, and from a mission that actually launched a payload.

    8. Re: Endless examples, just look around by msauve · · Score: 1

      Opioids and Facebook.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    9. Re: Endless examples, just look around by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      1969, then?

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    10. Re: Endless examples, just look around by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Yes, ya got me there. In that case, a vertical landing was essential to the mission itself, rather than being a recovery. But all though the subsequent Space Shuttle program, rocket recoveries were parachuted into seawater, which has a long history of ruining everything.

    11. Re:Endless examples, just look around by morethanapapercert · · Score: 1
      To be fair though, the existence of an idea in science fiction doesn't mean that people at the time thought it was actually possible. It just means the author and audience that it was a neat concept and that the author was able to couch it in plausible terms.

      And I think people under-estimate the "neat concept" thing as a driver of progress. It may not be possible to build an actual light sabre as depicted in Star Wars, but people are going to try and come up with solutions or work-arounds for the various physical problems until we have something close enough for practical purposes. (right now we have thermal lances which do similar things to materials and tissue as a light sabre, it just doesn't form a neat collimated bar bar you can swing around)

      --
      I need a wheelchair van for my son. Help me get the word out. https://www.gofundme.com/wheelchair-van-for-jj
    12. Re: Endless examples, just look around by morethanapapercert · · Score: 1
      I see your point about soma and whatever recreational drug you care to mention. And Facebook does have some parallels in 1984. But you overlook the "we have always been at war with eastasia" as an excuse for universal surveillance and population control which is the big issue in 1984 and in modern politics.

      Thankfully, while it is technically possible, we are still years away from a universal program of eugenics and genetic engineering to produce a docile and obedient society a la Brave New World.

      --
      I need a wheelchair van for my son. Help me get the word out. https://www.gofundme.com/wheelchair-van-for-jj
    13. Re: Endless examples, just look around by msauve · · Score: 1

      "But you overlook the "we have always been at war with eastasia" as an excuse for universal surveillance"

      But, think of the terrorists!!!

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
  4. 1752: Franklin with a key and a kite... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    ...1882: the first power grid.

    130 years.

    Sometimes great advances take time.

    1. Re:1752: Franklin with a key and a kite... by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      That's more conservatism in action than it is a long, hard R&D cycle. They already had lanterns, why do they need this newfangled 'electricity' thing for?

  5. Ignition by JBMcB · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Nobody has hit ignition yet. This includes the massive complex at Lawrence Livermore. Know how long they have been trying? The "laser bay" set in Tron was filmed in the prototype for the Livermore system. It was built in the 90's, at four times the original cost, and still isn't up to "full power," apparently because they don't know how to get it there.

    So, yeah, fusion research in the US has been a total debacle. Hopefully the Europeans can get it to work, but they're already spending the money, so why does the US have to? I think we have the sunken cost fallacy going on with the National Ignition Center.

    --
    My Other Computer Is A Data General Nova III.
    1. Re:Ignition by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Hopefully the Europeans can get it to work, but they're already spending the money, so why does the US have to

      Owning that technology seems monumentally valuable.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    2. Re:Ignition by msauve · · Score: 1

      "Owning that technology seems monumentally valuable.."

      Perhaps for a while, but it's all risk/reward, and not in any way a sure thing. We've all heard the claims for decades.

      The only way it's "monumentally valuable" is if it not only works, but can be commercialized fast enough to provide an ROI shorter than the remaining patent term, unless you seriously believe that practical fusion power can be kept a trade secret.

      Because, no one "owns that technology" even if they figure it out. Society has simply granted limited rights in exchange for publicly disclosing how to do it.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    3. Re:Ignition by PPH · · Score: 1

      and will commit its military

      Unless the developers of fusion power also built one of those other fusion things.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    4. Re:Ignition by BytePusher · · Score: 1

      Too late. W7X, because the Germans actually gave a shit about innovation 20 years ago, despite “socialism.” Now they’ve got better healthcare AND energy.

    5. Re:Ignition by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      Why would we want the Americans to have it? They'll just find a way to use it for making war on brown people countries, like they always do. In the hands of Europeans it would be much safer for the world, as well as be good for environmental and social justice. Europe can't make war on other countries, it simply lacks the ability to do so.

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    6. Re:Ignition by melted · · Score: 1

      Knowing it works is valuable. Owning it once you know the tricks, replicating it is trivial given the scientific base we already have in this country.

    7. Re:Ignition by Rob+Lister · · Score: 1

      Yours is the first post in this thread that deserves reading.

    8. Re:Ignition by markdavis · · Score: 1, Informative

      >"Why would we want the Americans to have it? They'll just find a way to use it for making war on brown people countries, like they always do."

      Not only is that totally inaccurate, you fail to realize that one of the most major points of conflict in the world revolves around energy. If you would stop viewing the world through distorted, far-left lenses, you might discover that plentiful, safe, cheap energy would allow all countries a measure of peace, security, and prosperity like nothing else ever could.

      >"Europe can't make war on other countries"

      You desperately need to study actual history.

    9. Re:Ignition by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 1

      My money is on those guys (the Wendelstein project)

      --
      If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    10. Re:Ignition by guruevi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Disclaimer: I work in close proximity and collaboration with a DOE-funded fusion research center.

      Fusion research has progressed significantly scientifically speaking, we can repeatedly trigger fusion reactions now, the only problem is input v. output (we still put more in than out) but everything else, containment etc. is pretty much figured out. The power differential is a hard problem made only harder by regulations on the fuels necessary. There are various fusion sites in the US that can't even get their hands on the fuels that have been delivering higher yields and if you've never worked with DOE - trying to hire or replace an employee can take 2-3 years, everything else that's done (hey we think we'll get better yields with a $10,000 modification or "let's replace that computer") can take ages as well.

      --
      Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
    11. Re:Ignition by 4im · · Score: 1

      What do you mean by "hit ignition"? If you're talking about achieving fusion, it's been done ages ago - in "simple" farnsworth fusor, in tokamaks, in stellarators. The fusion reaction has even been kept on for quite some seconds. They might even have reached break-even (i.e. produced more energy from fusion than has been pumped into the reactor).

      Now, what nobody has achieved is to actually make use of the energy. That's not even on the roadmap for ITER, but would be for its successor DEMO.

      As for the NIF, has anyone believed they were going for anything other than star wars (i.e. developing the tech for high-power lasers) and nuclear research (simulating nuclear explosions)? Considering the design, I highly doubt it ever was meant for energy production.

    12. Re:Ignition by thegarbz · · Score: 5, Informative

      Know how long they have been trying?

      We haven't been trying. The funding for nuclear fusion has been absolutely laughable. In all of 2018 the united states has spent less on fusion than Total has spent on their garden variety supercomputer to help speed up the processing of depth sounding for searching for oil.

      They have spent less money on fusion research in 2018 than a single highway lane expansion project that we have running locally to add a single lane each way for a 10km stretch of road.

      We're not trying. We're not even really giving the illusion of trying.

      Hopefully the Europeans can get it to work, but they're already spending the money, so why does the US have to?

      Because there's more than one aspect of fusion research, there are multiple proposed ways of achieving it, and letting someone else do something in the off chance that they get it working first go is making a losing bet, if they lose we're no better off, if they win, we'll spend a lot of money paying them for their knowledge.

    13. Re:Ignition by JBMcB · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the post! I couldn't find any more recent information than a few years ago when NIF stopped. What fuels are difficult to find? Last I heard it was mostly deuterium, which isn't *that* hard to get.

      --
      My Other Computer Is A Data General Nova III.
    14. Re:Ignition by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      You desperately need to study actual history.
      He probably wanted to say: Europe combined has only half as many carriers as the US.

      Or perhaps he meant: Europe has no subs to sink an US carrier.

      Or perhaps he meant: an Exocet is late 1980s technology and wont sink an AEGIS cruiser ...

      Perhaps he only was daydreaming and talking in his dreams ...

      I could include some links to highlight his follies but that would spoil your fun in googling ... hint: Gotland ... or german subs (yeah, they are in disarray ...)

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    15. Re:Ignition by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the post! I couldn't find any more recent information than a few years ago when NIF stopped. What fuels are difficult to find? Last I heard it was mostly deuterium, which isn't *that* hard to get.

      The deuterium is for d-t and d-He3 reactions (and others) and its the easy part of both equations. The hard part is the tritium which is mostly used in weapons production. He3 is hard because its found mainly on the moon (and asteroids) or you can get it from letting tritium decay. Either way it involves tritium. There are boron-d types of fusion but they require even more energy than d-He3 fusion.

    16. Re:Ignition by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      If you would stop viewing the world through distorted, far-left lenses

      DNS-AND-BIND is a notorious right-wing troll. Everything he said above was definitely sarcastic.

    17. Re:Ignition by markdavis · · Score: 1

      >"DNS-AND-BIND is a notorious right-wing troll. Everything he said above was definitely sarcastic."

      Ah, well, kinda hard to know that without some signal. But it does sound exactly like something I would expect to hear on Slashdot by someone.

    18. Re:Ignition by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      You're talking about a US vs. Europe war. What the GP was talking about was, you know, fucking up poor countries. Like Europe likes to do. Or China.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
  6. Re:I am sure it's 20 years away by msauve · · Score: 1

    But, but, but, think of the scientists!

    --
    "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
  7. Re:I am sure it's 20 years away by rtb61 · · Score: 1

    The big mistake was made back in the 1950, fast energy rather than slow energy. How to get as much energy out of the radioactivity as fast as possible because of the focus of engineers and dick brains (military et al). The focus should have been slow energy. Not how quickly you can get energy out of radioactivity but how you can trickle it out over a very long period ie many nuclear reactors with a single fuel load, small, much more stable and that fuel load, lasts the life of the reactor, probably re blended out again for use in the next reactor. So two hundred reactor power stations rather than two or three requiring continual fuel replacement.

    Fusion simply reflects a too high risk of catastrophic failure. Want to design fusion reactors, the very first thing you do with each, what happens when the containment field fails. Well, if the answer is instant nuclear detonation, well, go fuck yourself and your fusion reactor design. Fusion fine as long as it don't go boom in failure mode.

    --
    Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  8. Re:I am sure it's 20 years away by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    There is a consistent level of research funding that simply pays for transferring and maintaining what we know so far about fusion from one generation to the next without actually gaining much ground.

    It's been around that level of funding for as long as the "in 20 years" joke has been around, crawling along and occasionally something new and useful is figured out.

    If a Kennedy-space-race-esque decision were made to say "fuck it, we're putting 50 billion dollars a year into getting this done," you'd have it within a generation as the skill and knowledge base expanded exponentially with specialized graduate degree programs and parallel research projects for everything remotely worth exploring.

    Nobody that can afford to feels the need to take that gamble.

  9. Re:Why? It doesn't work by haruchai · · Score: 1

    "It's called the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, and its centerpiece is a large, doughnut-shaped, Russian-inspired reactor called a tokamak"

    Robert Bussard didn't have a lot of positive things to say about tokamaks when he gave a Google tech talk on fusion back in 2006

    --
    Pain is merely failure leaving the body
  10. Re:I am sure it's 20 years away by ClickOnThis · · Score: 1

    Worldwide funding for fusion research has already exceeded $50 billion with no meaningful result. Time to move on.

    That's a tiny sliver of capital compared to other human endeavours, many of far more questionable merit.

    Fusion research is important, but not urgent. Let its development continue. In the meantime, embrace other viable renewable and low-CO2 alternatives.

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  11. Re:Why? It doesn't work by Brett+Buck · · Score: 4, Funny

    It will work fine, you just have to make it larger - say, 186,000 miles in diameter. We have documented evidence of functionality.

  12. Correction. by msauve · · Score: 1

    "Experts Urge US To Continue Support For Nuclear Fusion Research"

    s/Experts/Recipients of government grants/

    --
    "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    1. Re:Correction. by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 1

      I was thinking more like . . .

      "Food Stamp Recipients Urge US To Continue Support For Food Stamp Program"

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    2. Re:Correction. by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      As opposed to doing what, precisely?

    3. Re:Correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I haven't had a chance to look up who is on this committee, but an office mate of mine was on a previous similar committee that prepared a report recommending fusion research funding a few years ago. The committee included a lot of scientists that would not benefit from fusion funding, including other plasma physics researchers (e.g. astrophysical plasma and plasma processing research) and people from industry. Often such committees specifically avoid people with such conflicts of interest, using direct participants & potential grant recipients only for answering questions.

  13. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by ceoyoyo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Um... a fusion reactor canâ(TM)t explode. If you lose containment of the plasma it dissipates and you need to restart your reactor.

    Fusion is hard. Fission is trivially (and therefore dangerously) easy.

  14. Re:I am sure it's 20 years away by wierd_w · · Score: 4, Informative

    Ahh, this old canard.

    Here, this handy little chart should help you understand what is actually meant with that.

  15. Trump will kill fusion research, too by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 3, Insightful

    In his apparent mad rush to drag the U.S. back to the 1940's technologically, socialogically, and politically, the gods-be-damned Trump administration will likely defund, kill off, and bury any and all research into practical fusion reactor technology, and instead insist on building more coal-fired power plants. Give 'em enough rope, and he'll probably try to outlaw solar power and wind power, too. Never mind what that'll do even in the short term to nationwide air quality and people's respiratory health, his science adviser assures him there's no connection between asthma, and other respiratory diseases, and air pollution.

    Meanwhile countries like China will forge ahead and likely master fusion technology ahead of the U.S., and rub our faces in it in front of the rest of the world, making the U.S. look like even a bigger laughingstock than it already has been made to look like in the last 2 years, if you can believe that's even possible. If Trump, somehow, against all odds and against all common sense, manages to get re-elected in 2020, all I can tell you is: better start learning to speak Mandarin and Russian.

    1. Re: Trump will kill fusion research, too by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Eat shit and die with your tired-out bullshit 'she lost' line, asshole. Voted 3rd party because I couldn't stand either of them, does that make you angry?
      Meanwhile Orange Julius Caesar continually embarasses, discredits, and disgraces himself and the Office of the President, and the entire United States, and will not get re-elected; even your own party has had enough of his shenanigans, so how about YOU get over it, YOU FUCKED UP. BLUE 2020.
      Now fuck off and go fix your own shit, you got plenty of it to attend to.

  16. Re:Why? It doesn't work by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

    Short-sightedness never accomplished anything.

  17. Re:Why? It doesn't work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    There are some pretty well established scalings that have been determined, basically saying if you have a given magnetic field, tokomak radius and shape, you will get a specific Q. The basics of containing plasma in a tokamak have been worked out some decades ago, and some of the final details have been worked out in the last 20 years, like disruption prevention and mitigation schemes.

    We know a fusion reactor will work if built big enough (and I'm not talking about the joke about making it the size of the sun). The question is what is the least amount of increase in size we can get away with, because costs scales very roughly with volume of the reactor. How much stronger magnets can we develop and how much heat flux can the first wall takes (gets worse for smaller machines)?

    This is getting into the realm of engineering, where the question is not, "Is it possible?," but instead, "Is it possible on a economical budget?"

  18. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  19. Not the plan by AndyKron · · Score: 1

    I don't see how this fits into our plan to destroy every living thing on Earth within the next 100 years?

    1. Re:Not the plan by mark_reh · · Score: 1

      You don't understand the plan. It's not to kill every living thing. The 0.01% of the population that is filthy rich wants to get rid of most of the rest of the population because they are unnecessary for their enjoyment of life, and in fact, cause problems for them. They only need a small number of people to clean, cook, farm, and etc. Once the population is nearly wiped out, we won't need but 0.01% of the cattle, pigs, chickens, etc. that we need now to feed all those useless people.

      I don't care how badly we muck up the atmosphere, there will be some places on earth that will be nice places to live for those 0.01%ers, and will still support the raising of 0.01% of the cattle, pigs, and chickens, and vegetables, etc. that those 0.01%ers will consume.

  20. Harrumph, harrumph! by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 3

    Gentlemen, we must protect our phoney baloney jobs! Harrumph harrumph!

    --
    Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    1. Re:Harrumph, harrumph! by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Science is a stupid. I is clevuh. Harrumph! Harrumph!

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
  21. But it works! by Cyberax · · Score: 2

    To be fair, Bussard's Polywell failed entirely. One thing about tokamaks is that we're already sure that they work, we know the scaling laws and can extrapolate the behavior.

    1. Re:But it works! by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1, Interesting

      There is not enough fuel. Tritium is very unstable and must be continually produced to provide a fuel source. If you're producing or harvesting enough tritium, you either have a fleet of fission reactors already producing far more energy than fusion reactors can harvest from the tritium byproducts, or you have solar sails collecting tritium and potentially harvesting _vastly_ more solar energy than the tritium can produce.

      There are some interesting boron fusion designs, rather than tritium and deuterium, but none have yet proven able to harvest more energy than they consume.

    2. Re:But it works! by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Tritium is going to be produced in the reactor itself in lithium blankets. D+T fusion emits a neutron that can be absorbed by lithium, producing helium, tritium and sometimes another neutron. This will provide enough tritium to feed back into the reaction.

      Fusion neutrons are actually valuable enough in itself, they can be used profitable even in sub-ignition tokamaks.

    3. Re:But it works! by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      ITER Is a distraction from fusion efforts that may one day be practical, which may be why it is the focus of funding. Contrary to your assertion, Bussard's Polywell has been making steady progress with a pittance of funding, and is still more likely to be commercially successful. So are a number of other projects, none of which are doughnut shaped.

      I actually did a review of various alternative fusion systems and as a result I actually invested several of hundred thousand dollars into Tri-Alpha Energy. So I know exactly what's going on in that field. Polywell basically failed to show that its scaling laws work. It might still work out in the end but there are reasons to believe it won't.

      Tokamaks are still the safest bet. A commercial power reactor will be smaller than ITER and it'll be much cheaper. ITER is built conservatively with low-temperature superconductors where now we can use high-temperature superconductors. ITER also has a lot of instrumentation that won't be necessary in a commercial reactor.

    4. Re:But it works! by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      So now you have told us you aren't very good with financial or technical decisions ?

    5. Re:But it works! by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      It's basically a high-risk bet. I don't put very high hopes on it, but if it goes through it's going to be awesome.

    6. Re:But it works! by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      I'm afraid that generating tritium that way costs energy that might otherwise be harvested from the initial reactions. Even if, by a miracle of efficiency, the reactor and the harvesting of tritium from such blankets regenerated as much as 50% of the expended tritium, it would only extend the effective amount of fuel by roughly a factor of two. Bulk supplies of fission reactor generated tritium would still be necessary as a primary fuel source.

      Can you find any papers or research that suggest a feasible recovery of tritium that might approach even 1% of the tritium expended? There are many fascinating papers about changing the permeability of metal layers in such a reactor, but _none_ of them seem to describe all o ft he steps of the process, especially with any usable efficiency.

    7. Re:But it works! by haruchai · · Score: 1

      I actually did a review of various alternative fusion systems and as a result I actually invested several of hundred thousand dollars into Tri-Alpha Energy.

      Good to see that at least some will put their money where their mouth is. I hope that bet pays off.
      I recall another Google talk about Focus Fusion which was hoping to use boron to for aneutronic fusion.
      Admirable goals since there would be no radioactive waste and it produces electricity directly.
      But I feel this may be the longest shot of what's already proven to be a near-impossible target to hit.

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    8. Re:But it works! by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Aneutronic fusion is infeasible in classical tokamaks or stellerators, though perhaps He3 fusion will work. It really needs alternative designs to work, like Tri-Alpha energy or Focus Fusion. With TAE it's going to become clear within a couple of years if their approach is going to work and they have solid theoretical basis why it should.

      Other fusion approaches it's much less clear.

    9. Re:But it works! by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Please, stop spreading misinformation. Li-n reaction is exothermic, it RELEASES additional energy. There's also an additional side reaction that produces tritium and another neutron (this one is mildly endothermic but doesn't affect overall energy balance significantly), so it's possible to actually produce more tritium than is consumed.

      The engineering challenge is going to be interesting but ultimately it seems to be solvable.

    10. Re:But it works! by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      Whether the Li-n reaction is exothermic, the energy output is only 25% that of the initial deuterium/tritium fusion reaction. On further thought, the energy of the original fusion wouldn't really be wasted, it will still wind up in the lithium blanket, so I see your point that it could be an energy gain. The energy must go _somewhere_, and it's going into the lithium blanket anyway.

      I'm afraid, though, that the actual breeder setups you refer to are not _efficient_. I'm looking right now at the "breeder blanket" designs, and one of them look efficient enough to approach even 50% generation of tritium compared to that expended in the fusion reactor. Do you see any designs that approach even that modest efficiency?

    11. Re:But it works! by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      I'm afraid, though, that the actual breeder setups you refer to are not _efficient_. I'm looking right now at the "breeder blanket" designs, and one of them look efficient enough to approach even 50% generation of tritium compared to that expended in the fusion reactor.

      A mix of Li7 and Li6 can produce two tritium atoms from one neutron, Li7 reacts with a fast neutron first releasing tritium and a slow neutron. This slow neutron can't react with Li7 anymore but can produce another tritium atom from Li6. So in the best case the overall reaction can produce twice as much tritium as put in.

      The engineering required for this is going to be decidedly non-trivial and it's one of the ITER's research targets. So basically nobody knows right now if it's going to work.

    12. Re:But it works! by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      I'm afraid that this "multiple tritium atoms from one nucleus" resembles the recent "search optimization" based marketing plans I've been encountering over the last few years. It relies on a much higher successful return on investment than is likely or even feasible. Based merely on the difficulties of doing chemical extraction of a very small, very chemically active, and _extremely_ radioactive molecule embedded in molten lithium metal or in lithium embedded ceramics seems unlikely to ever work safely or work well, or work well enough to significantly reduce the consumption of raw tritium for the fusion reactor.

  22. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by Solandri · · Score: 3, Informative

    Fission reactors can't suffer nuclear detonation either (that's right, the climax of Pacific Rim wouldn't work in real life). You need specific isotopes of uranium or plutonium to make a bomb; isotopes which actually impede the functionality of the reactor as an energy source.

    Chernobyl suffered a thermal explosion. So much energy built up so quickly the reactor fuel vaporized and blew apart the building. It was not a nuclear explosion. And it should be noted that Western nuclear reactors cannot blow up as Chernobyl did because they're designed with a negative void coefficient. They're designed so if the cooling water starts to boil, it slows down the nuclear reaction. Chernobyl's design used a positive void coefficient - boiling water sped up the nuclear reaction. The moment its coolant started to boil, the reactor was doomed. Positive void coefficient reactor designs were never used in the West because of this inherent instability. The Soviets were more interested in building something cheap, rather than safe.

    Even the right isotope of uranium or plutonium, building a bomb is very hard to do. The materials will not blow up in a nuclear explosion by themselves.. There were two supercriticality accidents with a plutonium core during the Manhattan Project. The two halves were accidentally put together close enough where the nuclear reaction became self-sustaining. All that happened was it gave off a bunch of radiation killing the nearest scientist. It did not blow up.

    To make it blow up in a nuclear explosion, you have to crush the uranium or plutonium far beyond its normal state. The atom bomb dropped on Hiroshima used a gun. A uranium bullet was fired at another uranium mass, briefly increasing the density beyond that needed for the supercriticality to cause a nuclear explosion. The atom bomb dropped on Nagasaki used explosives to implode a shell of plutonium (this is the method used in modern nuclear weapons). When the shell pieces collided in the center, their density briefly exceeded what was needed for a nuclear explosion. if they don't all meet in the center at the exact same time, then either there's no nuclear explosion, or you get a small nuclear explosion (this is why the yields in North Korea's nuclear tests were so small as to almost not register on monitoring equipment)..Getting all those explosives to go off at the exact same time with the right force in the right direction is really, really hard.

    Incidentally, fusion is so much harder to achieve that a fission nuclear bomb is used to create the pressures and temperatures needed to get hydrogen to begin to fuse, causing a fusion explosion. That's where the term "thermonuclear" comes from.

  23. Just do what China does by Solandri · · Score: 2

    Wait for someone else to develop it, then steal the plans.

    But seriously, there's something to be said for waiting if the existing technology doesn't seem to be up to the task. Japan spent several decades working on and pouring billions of dollars into HDTV, determined to be the first country to have HDTV broadcasts and be in control of all the standards. The U.S. didn't do anything. But Japan built their HDTV standard on analog transmission because that was the only technology capable of doing TV broadcasts at the time. Then in the 1990s, the price/performance of digital signal processors (needed to compress/decompress a digital video stream) dropped so quickly that the U.S. was able to develop a digital HDTV standard in just a few years and at far less cost than Japan's effort.

    None of the existing fusion reactor designs really instill me with confidence. They don't seem to instill the designers with confidence either as they're always talking about it being decades away. Maybe what we need is to wait for some breakthrough in superconductivity or materials science or quantum mechanics which suddenly makes fusion easy.

    1. Re:Just do what China does by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      And the worst part is that once you get any of the designs working you're going to hook it up to the traditional boil water and make steam to spin a turbine system in order to generate electricity. We really need to figure out a better way to take that heat energy and convert it to electricity because what we have, at least in places that don't use the leftover water for district heating, is very wasteful.

  24. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

    Of more concern would be the extremely large magnetic containment fields or the very high power systems needed to generate them.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  25. The biggest challenge by jd · · Score: 1

    Is to persuade governments to fund research. BNFL burned renewable funding. The US repeatedly blocks fusion and is currently anti-science.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  26. Sorry by jd · · Score: 1

    Coal was supplanted over a century ago. It is still used.

    Safe forms of fission exist, and have done for 40+ years, but none are in use in the US. The US also bans any form of nuclear reprocessing, resulting in far more dangeroys waste being created.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    1. Re:Sorry by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      resulting in far more dangeroys waste being created.
      You got it the wrong way, reprocessing produces more dangerous waste. Or more concentrated waste of the same danger ... depending how you want to judge it.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  27. Re: Why? It doesn't work by jd · · Score: 1

    Care to explain why multuple sites niw have multi-minute fusion reactions? No? Oh, that IS a surprise.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  28. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by jd · · Score: 1

    Nopw, the latest news from Germany puts it at 5 years. Skepticism is for real minds. Cynicism is for fools.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  29. Re:I had / did most of those 20 years ago by Dragonslicer · · Score: 1

    Wireless internet / wifi

    What complete idiot thinks wireless Internet wasn't even imaginable 20 years ago? Wireless networking is almost as old as wired networking. Development for ALOHAnet began in 1968.

  30. Re:I had / did most of those 20 years ago by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

    Nintendo 64 came out more than 20 years ago, so kids owned 64 bit processors. The surprise is that although we went from 8 bit to 64 bit in 25 years, after another 25 years we're still on 64 bit.

    Why is that surprising? That corresponds to 16 exibytes (well 8 if you have signed pointers). There's no machine on the planet which could make use of pointers of that size. And if you happened to have exabytes of storage, well, the latency would be so high that doing a 128 bit integer as 2 64 bit add-with-carry's is not going to affect your speed even slightly.

    There's just no need for pointers larger than 64 bits now and there won't be for a while yet. There just aren't enough applications where 128+ bit additions are the limitation, such that it's worthwhile implementing the hardware.

    Internally processors are much wider than 64 bits.

    We called it a VCR. I also probably still have a PCI video capture card in my storage room. Maybe even an ISA one. Cards like those were popular with Windows Media Center, a DVR that with Windows 15 years ago. 20 years ago, the DVR was a separate application that didn't come with Windows. *Renting* a DVR instead of owning it is new.

    I've lost mine. I had a few BT878 based ones, discards from windows users because they could never get them to work. Thr drivers on Windows were absolutely awful probably because it was a little niche and everyone implemented their own crappy drivers from the datasheet. On Linux they were absolutely rock solid in the early 2000s, probably because they all shared the same driver and it got much more work on it.

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
  31. Now hold on just a minute. by mark_reh · · Score: 1

    How many coal men will be put back to work in the coal mines if they make fusion energy work?

    'nuff said...

    #MAGA

  32. Boiling Water by LittlePud · · Score: 1

    The silly part of all this: once we perfect the science and engineering of fusion power we’re still only going to use it as a heat source to boil water and power a steam turbine.

    Is there any research into finding a way to extract electrical energy DIRECTLY from nuclear reactions? i.e. What are the theoretical and practical possibilities of a nuclear fuel cell?

  33. never dreamed or thought possible [Re:Endless...] by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    Uh, the first vertical landing rocket was demonstrated in 1961.

    Not one that had boosted a payload into orbit, no.

    But, the space shuttle was flying 20 years ago, which boosted payloads into orbit and then flew again. It's only the "vertical landing" part that's new, not the reusable part. And, mostly people weren't envisioning "vertical landings" because it had never seemed like a particularly important thing whether a landing was vertical or not.

    ...and as for "never dreamed or thought possible"-- no, science fiction landed rockets vertically all the time. It was certainly "dreamed" and even "though possible."

    The Soviets landed a Rover on Mars in 1971.

    Which never deployed.

    The original comment you're replying to was "rovers going for years on end", which didn't happen until 2006 (two years after the Opportunity rover landed, assuming "years" means "at least two years".)

    But "never dreamed or thought possible"-- no, nobody ever thought that it wasn't possible.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  34. Not just pointers. Went to GPUs with millions of b by raymorris · · Score: 1

    > Why is that surprising? That corresponds to 16 exibytes (well 8 if you have signed pointers). There's no machine on the planet which could make use of pointers of that size.

    It's not just about pointers. The CPU processes *everything* n-bits at a time, with n-bit precision. I mentioned Nintendo 64. It had 4MB of RDRAM. The 64 bit processor wasn't because it needed large pointers to address a huge amount of memory. :)

    Along with all internal operations being n-bits at a time, 16-bit computers normally used the 16-bit ISA bus, 32-bit computers used the 32-bit PCI bus. Bus bandwidth was a problem and a 128-bit bus seemed likely in the future.

    One thing that happened is we moved computation to the GPU, which does millions of bits at a time. Bus bandwidth certainly increased with PCI-e, but because it's too hard to keep 64 bits in sync, PCI-E switched from parallel (PCI) to serial at a much faster clock.

    Similarly for external ports. Rather than making a wider (and therefore higher bandwidth) parallel port, we dropped parallel ports and switched to universal Serial bus, USB.

  35. Fear the straw man by Texmaize · · Score: 1

    So, a group of scientists ban together to desperately plea that their should be funding for an already funded avenue of research? Furthermore, since there are no current plans to eliminate this research, it is import to panic each and every person that you know, that we should ban together and work very hard to stop the government from canceling this vital research, that they had no intention of canceling.

    The sad thing is, so many people on this forum are so blinded by irrational hate that they accept the darkest parts of their imagination as unquestioned fact.

    --
    "Liberalism is a very noble idea, currently controlled by some very bad people. Be sure you do not get the two confused.
  36. It's About the Human Infrastructure by Artagel · · Score: 1

    When thinking long-term about an area of science or technology, it is important to think about sustaining the development and retention of people across multiple professional generations. The government should be planning in terms of how many people it is going to sustain in developing fusion power for multiple decades and then do it. You have to pay the people, and you have to pay for the machines that the people are going to build to learn more. Otherwise you end up losing the people who know what they are doing, and paying extra to develop the talent again.Sure, it may take 100 years, but you have to fund consistently over that period or it will take 150.

  37. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by vtcodger · · Score: 1

    a fusion reactor can't explode

    I'll bet you a six-pack that the intellectual descendants of the geniuses who built the Chernobyl reactor can blow a fusion reactor up. But I'll give you that the explosion probably won't be all that big and the radioactive debris will probably be a lot less long lived and noxious than those from a damaged fission reactor.

    --
    You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  38. Premature? by vtcodger · · Score: 1

    and then develop its own plan for a "compact power plant.

    Might it not be a good idea to wait until a self sustaining fusion reaction has been achieved before setting out to design fusion power plants?

    My guess is that once it becomes clear that a fusion power plant is doable and the economics are viable, getting funding -- private and/or public -- is unlikely to be all that big a problem.

    --
    You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  39. Shortsightedness by fyngyrz · · Score: 1

    Short-sightedness never accomplished anything.

    Sure it did. It got us the electoral collage, which in turn got us Trump. It got us a constitution with zero penalties for violating it, which in turn got us continuous violations of the "highest law in the land." It also got us a supreme court that does whatever it likes WRT the constitution instead of requiring actual adherence to what article five says is required for changes to the document. It got us the drug war, into all manner of hot wars, brought us slavery and repression of women and a trickle-up financial environment and so, so much more.

    Short-sightedness is clearly a powerful engine for change.

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    1. Re:Shortsightedness by ScentCone · · Score: 1

      Sure it did. It got us the electoral collage, which in turn got us Trump.

      And Lincoln. And it spared us from the complete horror show of the Clintons regaining power, and Hillary seating SCOTS justices (more on which, below).

      It got us a constitution with zero penalties for violating it, which in turn got us continuous violations of the "highest law in the land."

      Because the COTUS isn't a penal code. It provides vital checks-and-balances structure, and (most importantly) it talks about what the government may not do, especially to individuals. It's up to the legislature to arrive at specific penalties on criminal matters. But the three co-equal branches DO provide "penalties," in the sense that the legislature can impeach executives and justices, the justices can block most actions by executives and legislature, and the executive can act on a broad range of things separately from the other two, while the other two name and consent to the justices. Yes, too many legislatures (at the state and federal level) have been getting away with disregarding things like the Bill of Rights. Which is why it's so important to get more originalists/textualists back on the district, circuit, and supreme courts... and that's being done by the very person you're complaining was just elected.

      It also got us a supreme court that does whatever it likes WRT the constitution instead of requiring actual adherence to what article five says is required for changes to the document.

      Which is why we're so fortunate that the electoral college is in place, so that voters in CA and NY couldn't swamp the election, and leave us with a president that promised to name more justices inclined towards exactly what you're complaining about. Instead we got the opposite, and the ship has been nudged back towards constitutionality. We dodged a bullet, big time.

      --
      Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    2. Re:Shortsightedness by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      I get your sarcasm, and that's fine, so long as you're not one of those sit-on-your-hands types that have given up on voting and system in general; if you are, then please renounce your citizenship and go live somewhere else, the last thing we need right now is deadweight.

    3. Re:Shortsightedness by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Donald Trump has been attacking the Constitution he's supposed to protect and defend since before he even got into office, specifically the 1st and 14th Amendments. How can you defend someone who refuses to perform Job One for a POTUS, which is defend the Constitution? Face it, friend, he's an embarassment. I didn't want him or Hillary but in retrospect I'd rather have had her than him by a longshot, and I don't give a damn what you or anyone thinks about that.

    4. Re:Shortsightedness by ScentCone · · Score: 1

      Be specific. Because the principle offenders against the constitution are his opponents, not him. He's UNDONE much of the lurching towards media muzzling that Obama did. Exactly the opposite of your assertion. And, the 14th amendment? Let me guess, you're mad because he's talking about returning our naturalization process to what the authors of the 14th amendment actually intended? That's not an attack on the Constitution, it's RESPECT for it. If you think the people who wrote and ratified the 14th were lying about its purpose, and think it should be changed to include someone who is NOT a citizen if they are born on one side of the rope line in the airport, but if mom happens to give birth on the other side of the rope line in the customs area while she's visiting from Russia, PRESTO! a new US citizen... if that's what you think the 14 SHOULD be about, then you should be lobbying for an amendment to the constitution, not complaining because the president is talking about using his role as the guy in charge of the State Department to have that department's policies on doling out citizenship actually reflect the law. Don't like the law? Change it. Right now, birthright citizenship in the context of sneaking across the border and giving birth is NOT a feature of the 14th amendment.

      --
      Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    5. Re:Shortsightedness by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Those are your opinions, not facts, and as such I'm ignoring them. You're just a Trump supporter, nothing more, so facts bounce off you like rubber balls. Bye-bye.

    6. Re:Shortsightedness by ScentCone · · Score: 1

      Those are your opinions, not facts, and as such I'm ignoring them. You're just a Trump supporter, nothing more, so facts bounce off you like rubber balls. Bye-bye.

      Come now, don't be a coward. Your OWN assertions are completely fact-free (twice, now). Here, try on a fact: Trump hasn't had journalists home and work phones surveilled, spied on their families and colleagues, and had prosecutors jail them for not playing along with administration policies. That was Obama. Obama was the guy who promised the "most transparent administration in history," and was then pilloried by even the usually fawning lefty press for clamping down on interviews, photography, and access in unprecedented ways. Of course you know this, and are pretending that a jackass like CNN's Acosta (who is universally loathed by his fellow reporters) getting a time out (him personally, not his network's other journalists) is somehow counter-First-Amendment. You know these things, but since you didn't do anything but thrown around some vitriolic hand-wavy assertions, we'll have to assume you're trying to pretend you don't so that in your phony ignorance you can pretend your TDS is based on facts.

      Sort of like your phony take on the 14th Amendment. You know, the one where they MAN WHO AUTHORED THE CITIZENSHIP CLAUSE came right out and told his fellow legislators (and you, if you'd bother to read his words) that the language DOES NOT apply to people who wander in and give birth. It didn't even apply to Native Americans. It was written explicitly to prevent southern Democrats from trying to treat freed slaves as if they weren't citizens. That was the amendment's purpose, which you'd know if you bothered to read any of the supporting documents, correspondence, and transcripts surrounding it's ratification. Legislators were worried that the amendment actually might be confused for creating a situation where a non-citizen who steps over the border and gives birth has just created a new citizen.

      Senator Jacob Howard, who wrote the language, said on the matter, "The Amendment will not, of course, include persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens, who belong to the families of ambassadors or foreign ministers." Democrat Harry Reid reiterated the concept in a 1993 speech, saying that merely being born (of foreign citizens) on US soil doesn't make one a citizen.

      Again, you know all of this and are pretending you don't so that you can (without citing, because you couldn't, any actual facts) pretend you're forming an opinion based on facts. It's a pretty lazy rhetorical move, hoping that dumb readers will think you're right if you also play dumb and sound snarky and angry. But it doesn't hold up to even the most casual scrutiny. Which you know. No wonder you said "bye-bye." You're trying to avoid the embarrassment of having to find actual examples of the things you're claiming. Which you can't. Because you know you're BS-ing.

      --
      Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    7. Re:Shortsightedness by fyngyrz · · Score: 1

      I vote every time. I am politically active in other ways as well.

      --
      I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  40. A wretched hive of... plasma by fyngyrz · · Score: 1

    Wow, a whole multi-minute after decades of research and billions of dollars? It isn't going to work. Time to move on.

    Humanity's been around watching birds fly for tens of thousands of years.

    But we've only had significant flight capability for about a century.

    Seems to me it might be a little premature to be saying "This isn't the technology you're looking for. Move along. Move along."

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  41. Re: FUSION research, Mr. Bosoku! by Insanity+Defense · · Score: 1

    Unfortunately, fission is how we get many radioisotopes that are extremely useful, especially in the medical field. technetium-99; iodine-131; cobalt-60; americium-241; californium-252; even plutonium-238, the only practical energy source for lengthy space probe missions.

    Only a very small percentage of reactors around the world (none in the U.S.) are used to produce medical isotopes. The Canadian one being rebuilt caused a under supply of some of the medical isotopes for several years.

  42. Re: I had / did most of those 20 years ago by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Alan Kay conceptualized a wirelessly connected tablet computer that very year.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  43. Re: Not just pointers. Went to GPUs with millions by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    In that case, aren't you ignoring SSE and AVX instruction sets?

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  44. Re: CO2 outputs by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    My professional experience working with modeling software

    Your professional experience working with *climate* modeling software? Or is it just a case of engineering woo on your part?

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  45. Re: Why? It doesn't work by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    What a stellar idea!

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  46. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Fission reactors can't suffer nuclear detonation either ... Chernobyl suffered a thermal explosion.

    Scientists might disagree

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  47. Communist bullshit by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 1

    First of all, how dare you communist bastards suggest we invest money in development of science a technology using Celsius as our scale of measurement. If you really want money, you'll switch to Farenheit ASAP.

    Also, investments in free and clean energy are anti-American. We have goals of reducing emissions standard requirements to promote the free market and allow people to right to choose to drive cars that consume more fuel. If you were to interfere by decreasing the value of energy, this would interfere with the free market and before you know it Xi will be in charge!

    Let's focus on important things
        1) No more of this healthcare for everyone bullshit. If you're poor, either commit a crime so we can lock you up to produce prison jobs for hard working former coal workers. Or at least join the military so we can either kick your ass into shape, get you killed or make sure your PTSD is bad enough that you'll commit a crime and make prison jobs. If you're worthless as a prisoner, dead person or a "hero" (we love that one... nothing gets poor people to do stupid shit like selling that one), then your health is a problem... eat more boxed shit and die... we don't want your problems.

        2) Coal! It makes no difference whether we decide to use more coal, the entire coal industry is automated now. It takes an absolute frigging moron that probably believes wearing some camouflage pajamas and carrying a weapon makes them a hero to believe there will ever be coal jobs again. That ship has sailed... but if we can sell a shitload of coal, we can either afford to build a supermax in their back yard to give them jobs or we can pay their welfare and foodstamps from it.

            3) Fracking! Ooooooo baby... I love this thing.... and any liberal pussy that whines about water supplies and earthquakes is a commi bastard. There's simply no proof that causing massive amounts of underground vibrations and instability has anything to do with pollution from things like settled sediment being disrupted in water supplies and there sure as shit is no proof that causing massive underground explosions has anything to due with the stability of the land above it. That's just nature. Look... even the dumb ass Brits are doing it everywhere now too. And we all know they're commi bastards.

    No... none of this fusion shit. Let the commi Europeans destroy their own economies with that crap. In the free market USA (where everything and everyone is clearly better) we will stick to shit we can blow up out of the ground.

  48. Re: Why? It doesn't work by jd · · Score: 1

    The total spent on fusion since 1954 is $24 billion. Wonder how much that is per facility per year. After all, the Manhattan Project only cost $22 billion and fusion can't be any more difficult than banging two rocks together really hard.

    The total spent on fossil fuel is $21 trillion a year. Obviously that can't work, either.
    They'd been trying to build computers since 100 BC, obviously those are impossible.

    They'd been trying to find a Higgs boson since the 1960s. Obviously they don't exist.

    They'd been trying to discover how to make fire since 5 million BC. Obviously can't be done.

    Wake me up when... no, don't bother waking me up. This level of stupidity is too great to stomach.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  49. Re:Not just pointers. Went to GPUs with millions o by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

    It's not just about pointers. The CPU processes *everything* n-bits at a time, with n-bit precision.

    No, it's only about pointers. Desktop CPUs go up to 512 bit wide instructions with the latest AVX. And they're super scalar so they are 256 bits or more wide, but they use that width to do several operations not just one really big one. There's not much utility in 128 bit arithmetic so they don't waste the silicon on it.

    Bus bandwidth was a problem and a 128-bit bus seemed likely in the future.

    We went flying past that.

    The internal memory busses are based on cache lines which are also 512 bits wide in big CPUs: that's how much memory it fetches in one go.

    DDR 4 gives a 64 bit width, but processors now support quad channel DDR4, which gives an effective width of 256 bits to main memory.

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
  50. We didn't have AVX 20 years ago by raymorris · · Score: 1

    I'm talking about what we expected 20 years ago.
    We had gone from 8-bit to 16-bit, then 16-bit to 32-bits, then from 32 to 64-bit. It seemed entirely logical that we'd go from 64 to 128.

  51. Didn't have 2018 AVX in 1998 by raymorris · · Score: 1

    > with the latest AVX

    Yes, with the latest AVX. AVX didn't exist 20 years ago. I'm talking about what we expected 20 years ago.
    We had gone from 8-bit to 16-bit, then 16-bit to 32-bits, then from 32 to 64-bit. It seemed entirely logical that we'd go from 64 to 128. Instead, things went in different directions.

    1. Re:Didn't have 2018 AVX in 1998 by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Yes, with the latest AVX. AVX didn't exist 20 years ago. I'm talking about what we expected 20 years ago.

      OK... but we had 128 bit SSE 19 years ago. Close enough to 20. And they were already superscalar by then.

      It seemed entirely logical that we'd go from 64 to 128. Instead, things went in different directions.

      It really didn't. Pointers and integer primitives stopped at 64 bits. CPUs keep getting wider.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    2. Re:Didn't have 2018 AVX in 1998 by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Yes, with the latest AVX. AVX didn't exist 20 years ago.

      No but 128 bit wide SSE did. As did the 128 bit wide cache lines (the inner most memory bus) to go with it.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
  52. Specifically, IPv6 128 bit in 1998 by raymorris · · Score: 1

    As a specific example, in 1998 we saw that CPU "bits" had been doubling every few years, so we didn't expect that 20 years later SQL Server and all the other popular software still wouldn't be able to handle 128-bit values. We thought we could use 128-bit addressing and computers in general would be able to use these 128-bit values after a few years.

    If we're had used 64-bit addresses, that would give us 18 quadrillion IP addresses. That's this many:

    18,446,744,073,709,551,616

    If we knew then what we know now, we may well have used 64-bit addresses in IPv6. 18 quadrillion is plenty of IPs. We figured that by 2018 computers would be able to handle 128-bit numbers. We were wrong - most software can't. By "we" I mean *I* made that argument. I was wrong.

  53. It's not effortless at all. Just indirect. by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    It sounds like you're saying we don't need to worry about our current CO2 outputs because technology will just come along that solves the problem effortlessly.

    I find it amusing you think developing a fission reactor is "effortless"

    Or developing much more efficient solar cells. Or any one of the countless other things that WILL improve over the next 20-30 years in ways you cannot image.

    It's not that these things are effortless - it's that over the span of all progress, they are INEVITABLE. The massive switch to electric cars is inevitable because it makes so much more sense. The massive switch to solar power is the same; inevitable it will be cheaper.

    Your problem is that you can only see what is, not what will be - so you seek to destroy the world to correct some wrong that was never going to be a problem to begin with if you hadn't meddled.

    Your way of thinking is the way of despots and tyrants through history, that left hundreds of millions to suffer or die because you lacked vision and any faith in progress.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  54. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    It literally says there was a fizzle involved. The isotopic evidence is there. If you're too obtuse to see it, then I can't help you. The authors don't "agree with GP". And they may not be alone.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  55. Re:I am sure it's 20 years away by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    Gee thanks I am sure without you telling me what was meant I wouldn't of known

    Anyway seeing as I was actually around for the time frame in question and you weren't

    It means exactly what was said. IE if you fund fusion it's 20 years away. Well it's been nearly 70 years

    We have vastly better control systems, vastly better ways to model the magnetic fields, superconductors, far improved high temperature materials, and far superior power control and management systems.

    You know there was no amount of funding that was going to make all that happen by 1970 or 1990 or 2000 and you know what else we are still far away from breakeven.

    So you know what your chart tells people ? It tells people just how much you like it when people feed you shit.

  56. Re: Why? It doesn't work by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    That's kind of amazing seeing as the cost of Iter alone is 20 billion +
    https://www.sciencemag.org/new...

    and the NIF was nearly 4 Billion
    https://lasers.llnl.gov/about/...

    Pretty sure there's been more than 2 projects.

  57. Re: I am sure it's 20 years away by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    Oh so we should defund ITER now seeing as the German project is a stellarator not a tokomak

  58. Z-machine by manu0601 · · Score: 1

    ITER and Tokamak in general cannot confine neutrons, which are not sensible to electromagnetic fields. And high energy neutrons damaging the machine is a problem

    An idea is to target fusion reactions that do not produce neutrons, but that required insanely high temperatures. We have another machine for doing that: the Z-Machine

  59. Re:It's not effortless at all. Just indirect. by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

    so you seek to destroy the world to correct some wrong that was never going to be a problem to begin with if you hadn't meddled.

    It's retarded deniers like you who will destroy the world by letting it bake.
    Unless we can convince rational people to ignore you.

  60. Do not let Fear define you by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    It's retarded science-ignorant alarmists like you who will destroy the world trying to "fix" it.

    "we don't know who struck first, but we know it was us that scorched the sky". Yep, sounds like alarmist MO.

    I am dead serious about you being the one who will literally destroy all life on Earth, if you have your way. Trying to screw with natural cycles is the height of idiocy.

    I'll let you have the last response so you can keep peddling your hoary old load of fear, but know that every day the scales fall from more people's eyes, who truly embrace debate, logic and most importantly - SCIENCE over FEAR. I pity you living in the mental jail you have constructed for yourself...

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  61. Re: Why? It doesn't work by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 1

    I'm a little skeptical of this number, but to put it into perspective, completing the 2nd Avenue Subway in NYC would cost about $6 billion. Anyone whose ridden the nearby but fatally overcrowded Lexington Ave. line knows it is badly needed, and would probably pay for itself quickly just in terms of person-hours lost through delays. However, in the bigger picture, there is just no comparison between the need for a subway line on one hand, and orders-of-magnitude-cheaper-and-safer energy on the other. We should be investing WAY more than we do, and I'm guessing that if government got the hell out of its way, the private sector alone would likely be doing so all by itself.