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This Was the Year the Robot Takeover of Service Jobs Began (gizmodo.com)

merbs writes: Out of the three major sectors of the economy -- agriculture, manufacturing, and service -- two are already largely automated. Farm labor, which about half the American workforce used to do, now comprises around 2 percent of American jobs. And we all know the rust belt song and dance, beat out to outsourcing and mechanization. Which is largely why some 80 percent of all American jobs are service jobs. And this year, quietly but in the open, the robots and their investors came for them, too.

There's a case to be made that 2018 is the year automation took its biggest lunge forward toward our largest pool of human labor: Amazon opened five cashier-less stores; three in Seattle, one in Chicago, and one in San Francisco. Self-ordering kiosks invaded fast food and franchise restaurants in a big way. Smaller robot-centric outfits like the long-awaited auto-burger joint Creator opened, too, and so did a number of others.

In Las Vegas, our service job mecca, hotels' and casinos' widespread plans for automation in everything from bartending to waitstaff to hotel work led one of the city's most powerful hospitality unions to the brink of a 50,000-person strike last summer before a successful negotiation was reached... Combined, they act as a set of markers on a trendline we can no longer ignore. We face the prospect of major upheaval in the last dependable pool of jobs we've got.

119 of 207 comments (clear)

  1. Unemployment rate at 50 year low by olsmeister · · Score: 2

    So I guess it's not the end of the world. Plus, I can always go back to dancing in the clubs like I did to get myself through college.

    1. Re: Unemployment rate at 50 year low by 110010001000 · · Score: 2

      Oh right. They wouldn't just throw you in fail for not paying taxes.

    2. Re: Unemployment rate at 50 year low by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Your sarcasm detector is the only poor thing around here.

    3. Re:Unemployment rate at 50 year low by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 4, Informative

      This is because the government is employing an insane amount of people now.
      - The DOD now has over 2.8 million active or reserve on payroll
      - The DHS has 229k they also use a massive number of full time contractors (let's assume 100k)
      - The TSA has 60k (they also use up to 1 million additional contractors)
      - The DoE is 13k employed another 120k consultants/contractors
      - Police departments employ over a million people
      - Fire has over 1.1 million
      - Half a million prison guards, but it looks like there's 3 times as many workers at prisons as guards... so let's say 1.5 million prison workers
      - Can't find the count, but adding heads at defense contractors (Lockheed, Honeywell, etc...) I come up with about 10 million people
      - There are at least 2.2 million people removed from the count because of incarceration
      - There are 10-20 million people working jobs not directly for the military but that wouldn't exist if not for the military. This includes things like gas stations near base.
      - There where about 1.2 million federally funded road construction jobs in 2018
      - There were probably about another 1.2 million jobs producing road construction equipment and supplies.

      There are a total of 180 million working age (not working eligible) people in the U.S. meaning 20-64 years old. It took me 5 minutes of using Google to get this far.

      I didn't even get creative, but I'd imagine that the U.S. government now employs at least one of 3 eligible Americans or simply removes them from the job market.

      Let's also consider that the labor force participation rate was 62.9% last year. That means of the 180 million, only about a 100 million are actually trying to work.
      Remove another 4 percent or so from the count as they are unemployed. And about 28 million are part time workers (working less than 35 hours a week). So, we're now down to about 68 million full time employed workers.

      I also see that on average 1 in 3 workers are part of the gig economy which I have no idea what that really equates so. Someone says it's 16 million another one says it's more like 60 million.

      No... the unemployment rate is absolutely horrible.

    4. Re: Unemployment rate at 50 year low by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      And give him .. a nonconcurrent Sentence, for crimes. Against punctuation

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    5. Re: Unemployment rate at 50 year low by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 1

      What will cause a bigger problem?
        a) The government protects jobs from robots and other countries don't and the U.S. economy weakens due their insanely high labor cost and overall inefficiency
        b) Robots do the majority of the work and decrease the costs of living for the average American low enough to survive off of deficit funded welfare

      The jobs will be automated or the companies will lose their asses to the companies in other countries who automated.

    6. Re: Unemployment rate at 50 year low by Freischutz · · Score: 1

      Oh right. They wouldn't just throw you in fail for not paying taxes.

      They can't throw everybody in 'fail'.

    7. Re: Unemployment rate at 50 year low by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Sure they can. First they will seize your bank account, then garnish any income, then throw you in jail.

    8. Re:Unemployment rate at 50 year low by rtb61 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So what you are saying is the US government should use more automation and sack as many people as possible and this will solve the problem.

      Automation does not seem to be the problem, how you distribute the income of automation does. So do you automate to the level where you have no workers and thus eliminate all workers as customers and thus do not need any automation because you have no customers.

      Really the only problem how to distribute the rewards of automation. We all know the psychopathic 1% wants it all, not most, ALL and for the rest, well we are consumables to be used and abused, to feed ego and lusts. That is the reality of the conflict, a class one, the exploiters, the psychopaths vs the normies, the exploited.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    9. Re:Unemployment rate at 50 year low by HiThere · · Score: 1

      If you believe the official numbers, you're fooling yourself. I haven't checked into it in detail for awhile, but every time I did they have jiggered the numbers in a new way. I understand that those who follow the numbers carefully do have a way of tracking what's happening, but the numbers reported as "unemployment" bear little to no relation to reality.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
  2. Solution is obvious by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Increase minimum wage and allow floods of immigrants from Third World countries in. That will...ahhh...never mind.

  3. "I'll be back..." by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 1

    "...with your order in about five minutes."

  4. Happened to me by 110010001000 · · Score: 5, Funny

    I was flipping burgers in San Francisco and this Creator company came in and everyone went there and there are no burger flipping jobs left. So then I became a Chess grandmaster and the AI took that job, so I became a Go grandmaster and then the AI took those jobs too. I finally settled on being a taxi driver, so I am OK now.

    1. Re: Happened to me by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      I'll take the job I am best at (the first option).

    2. Re:Happened to me by DavenH · · Score: 1

      You can still be a Starcraft 2 grandmaster, for a while.

  5. subsidies by hackingbear · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We can continue to provide government subsidies, charge high import tariff on farm products to make sure the farm industry can replace workers with robots, while blaming China for the lost jobs.

    1. Re:subsidies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Why are we getting weekly reminder that the US is hypocritical on everything? Yeah, so what?

    2. Re:subsidies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The food supply simply isn't something you can afford to outsource, unless you want a starving population after the next international disagreement. Every big nation or union subsidizes its food production.

    3. Re:subsidies by Anne+Thwacks · · Score: 1
      we getting weekly reminder that the US is hypocritical on everything

      At last, AC, you have solved my problem: I will become a professional hypocrite - it is obviously the job in highest demand in America!

      --
      Sent from my ASR33 using ASCII
  6. And the big question must be... by bill.pev · · Score: 3, Interesting

    What happens when labor has no value? Or, when all that matters is capital?
    How will people earn respect .. to say nothing of provide for their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness?

    Please reply with your ideas, ideally without trolling. I would especially like to hear anything beyond the extremes of Death Universal Basic Income. Neither of these allow for self-respect.

    1. Re:And the big question must be... by John+Guilt · · Score: 4, Insightful
      I don't follow: why does living off a Universal Luxurious Income (my preference to U.B.I.) funded by machine labour not allow for self-respect?---that would be true only if 'having a job' were the only possible source of self-respect. Being a good dancer, a sincere and hard-working follower of a martial art, a student of the Talmud or the Confucian Analects or the Eddas or mathematics, someone who grows great pot or knows the finicky way you have to prepare opium for smoking--- I have great respect for all of these, and respect myself for the extent I've done any of these (even as I admit to not having done all of them).

      .

      To use language that might draw the ire of some but which I think accurate, it is mostly the 19th-21st Century construction of masculinity in some places that equated earning your own living with self-respect---before that, what most people admired were aristos or gentlemen who by definition didn't. I mean, being self-supporting was considered desirable and worthy of respect, but it wasn't the sine qua non for self-respect. Making self-respect dependent on a job was in some way an opiate for the men who had to do them to live, and though I think opiates can be fun when not necessary, they should be treated with care.

      .

      The only shame I can see in being supported is in the pain of those doing the supporting....

    2. Re:And the big question must be... by lessthan · · Score: 1

      Death, maintenance, and art. A shit-ton of people are going to die in poverty because they are unnecessary (and the elimination of service jobs is happening suddenly with no time to adapt) and the ones that don't die will maintain the machines the rich need to be rich or will make art (TV, movies, music) the wealthy consume. I would hope that the ability to create things like food and shelter would experience some democratization, but I doubt it.

      --
      Space Shuttle was a program that strapped humans to an explosion and tried to stab through the sky with fire and math
    3. Re:And the big question must be... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      ideally without trolling.

      I see that you are new to the internet. Welcome!

      The problem seems intractable. In the past, we expected people to move up the knowledge curve as technology undermined the bottom. Now, technology is moving up the curve, and people will not in mass numbers be capable of moving further up to outpace it.

      Slow motion social collapse, possibly. Or maybe there will be some novel thing to come in and provide jobs only humans can do for billions. However that does not seem so very likely, and nobody has identified that thing yet, so it better hurry itself up.

    4. Re:And the big question must be... by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 2

      Extend that even further.

      When a machine in China can sort trash automatically using ML and cameras (in testing) and can recycle this waste into materials using minimal staff, then deliver those materials to factories which can produce manufactured homes for pennies on the dollar today.... what will happen to housing prices which is where most people in the world store their money today?

      When a meat can be produced by machine instead of from animals and programs like those sponsored by the Gates Foundation or the Chinese Government decrease the cost of meat to the point where it can be distributed for pennies on the dollar compared to today's prices?

      When vegetables can be produced using underground automated 3D hydroponic gardening powered by renewable energies?

      When energy itself is plentiful and cheap thanks to things like California laws which require all new houses to be built with solar panels on their roofs?

      When self driving and operating construction vehicles can lay foundations, raise houses, build roads, etc... without human or minimum human assistance?

      When a country like China becomes entirely self sufficient thanks to Western Nations actually paying China to take their trash which provided China not only with the raw materials they need but also the money to recycle the material with for their own uses?

      When single use plastic becomes illegal pretty much everywhere and cars use less gas?

      When Amazon optimizes the logistical supply chains throughout the western world and makes it so that instead of needing to manufacture and stock 1 million units of a particular item in thousands of stores throughout the U.S., they instead stock 10,000 and centralize and optimize the distribution process? Consider how this would impact for example something as simple as rubber bands? The company who makes the rubber bands manufactures 30 boxes of 500 to be stored at each of several hundred Staples stores. They sit on the shelf up to 2 years before being sold. Now instead, they ship 100 boxes to Amazon who stores 25 boxes in 4 strategic locations and then ship them to customers as needed and will need to restock every 6 months. The result is that it requires 30% as many rubber bands to meet the same demand. So the rubber band company goes bankrupt because it requires the old business model to produce a profit

      What happens when a company like Amazon either 3d prints meat people ordered or butchers meat centrally on demand to supply all their customer's orders? How many fewer animals would be needed? How much less trash will be produced? How many local grocery stores would be unable to compete?

      I think there are much bigger problems to address than just automation?

    5. Re:And the big question must be... by HiThere · · Score: 2

      There needs to be a separation between work and respect. This has been vitally needed for a long time, but it's not profitable to those in power...and profit here doesn't really refer to money, it refers to power and esteem.

      The problem is that not all jobs CAN be automated. So some people are going to need to work. And the amount of work needed is greater than people will do without exterior motivation. (Also the goals. Now that I've retired I only program half to a third as much, but what I program is very different. I'm no longer willing to even touch MSAccess or Visual Basic. Or to agree to any MS or Apple EULA.)

      Middle level jobs are being eaten away every year. I saw that decades ago. And this isn't the entry of automation into the service sector. That was the vending machine, or perhaps the Automated Cafeteria. But the curve seems to be getting steeper, as predicted by various folks. And computers are getting more capable, while people are remaining about the same. So when computers get more capable faster, and people only get as capable as they can be trained to be, which hasn't really improved since the stone age, then what do you expect to happen? Computers become dominant on more and more areas. But it was two or three decades ago that a chef in Chicago experimented with printing imitation food. This isn't a sudden change. And more and more commercial kitchens are using fancy gizmos like liquid Nitrogen, automated ovens, electric mixers, etc. etc. And you'd be surprised what a modern commercial electric mixer can do. (Actually, of course, there are lots of different models with differing capabilities, and I'm no expert in the field.)

      So automation has been moving into the service sector since long before the first Roomba. What's the real difference between an automated hamburger maker and a sandwich vending machine? A bit of capability, but the basic idea is the same. It's just the new version is a bit more appealing.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    6. Re:And the big question must be... by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      What's the real difference between an automated hamburger maker and a sandwich vending machine?

      A human had to make the sandwich and stick it in the vending machine. Presumably they got paid to do this.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    7. Re:And the big question must be... by Dunbal · · Score: 2

      Prices are sticky to the upside. Absolutely no capitalist is thinking "Oh I want to get robots in so that I can decrease prices and pass the savings on to the consumer". No, it's "I want to get robots so that I can increase my profits".

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    8. Re:And the big question must be... by Anne+Thwacks · · Score: 1
      I want to get robots so that I can increase my profits

      Unless the rich are extremely stupid, (which, clearly, many are) they know the robots can't make profit unless the unemployed have enough money to pay for what the robots (or outsourced jobs) produce.

      At the moment, the plan is to have the "middle income" fund the unemployed. As the relative size of the unemployed overtakes the number of middle incomers, this strategy is failing. Not helped by the fact that the "middle income" is actually not much larger than is needed to survive, and is rapidly going below that level in most developed countries.

      Clearly a "Plan B" is required - and eliminating most of the honey bees was not the right plan B.

      --
      Sent from my ASR33 using ASCII
    9. Re:And the big question must be... by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      Unless the rich are extremely stupid

      Having spoken to quite a few rich people, I'm not sure this is not the case. Wealth != brains.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    10. Re:And the big question must be... by HiThere · · Score: 1

      Originally that was true, though I'm not sure it currently is. But it took a lot fewer people to make the sandwiches that ended up in the vending machines than the people who used to make the sandwiches. One of the things that changed was that the hours of availability increased dramatically, even though the quality decreased. So more sandwiches were sold. So *PERHAPS* the total number of sandwich makers remained the same...but I doubt it. The people making sandwiches in the cafe's had a lot of down time that the assembly line sandwich makers didn't. There are other differences, like more centralized control, purchasing, and distribution. These enabled several efficiencies, but included efficiently transmitting diseases...so steps had to be taken to prevent that. Etc.

      But the basic idea was the same.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    11. Re:And the big question must be... by ilsaloving · · Score: 1

      What do you mean "when"?

      Labour has never had value. People don't care about how much effort something takes. People don't care how many years of experience you need to build up in order to accomplish said thing. In a world where people treat the Dunning Kruger effect as a personal accomplishment, it can be very difficult for people to see the value in your skills.

      This is particularly notable for people in the computer industry (not to mention any kind of design field). "But my teenage nephew can do that in a fraction of the time, and all for a bag of cheetos!"

      The Oatmeal has a great example of this: https://theoatmeal.com/comics/...

    12. Re:And the big question must be... by larkost · · Score: 1

      The problem with this thinking is that many of the people in charge of these companies have been trained (by MBA programs) to believe that the "invisible hand of the market" will solve all of these problems, and they just need to concentrate on fulfilling their own greed (because "greed is good").

      I have had a number of conversations with MBA graduates, and this way of thinking has been pounded into them in a way that more resembles a religion than a graduate course.

    13. Re:And the big question must be... by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

      When labor has no value?

      The biggest problem we have today is that labor is too expensive! That's why it pays for stores to spend big bucks on robots, because labor costs are so high. Robots aren't cheap!

      A century ago, people had to save up to buy things like shoes. Today, things are cheap and labor is expensive. It will take a LOT of automation to bring down the price of labor to the point that it has "no value."

  7. Re:op is delusional and a liar by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

    I saw him dancing in a club last week. He wasn't on stage though, so I am not sure what he was doing.

  8. Youngins by MightyYar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It didn't just start. I remember calling in to the movie theater, getting a person on the phone, and having a conversation about which movies were playing. Poor woman probably wanted to kill herself, and she was replaced by a tape machine - and eventually by "MoviePhone". This was just one part of an overall move to voicemail/menu systems to replace human interaction. I remember the first self-checkout line at the grocery store, and prior to that the first barcode scanner. Prior to that the stock boys had to use a price gun to put a price on every goddamn item (I know because I was a stock boy and I had to do that). Airplanes had a flight engineer. Postal workers manually sorted mail. Companies had "secretary pools" to manually copy documents (OK, that was before my time, along with washing machines, vacuum cleaners, and dishwashers). Service jobs have been replaced by machinery since we invented machinery. Maybe it has accelerated or reached some kind of inflection point, but it certainly didn't "begin" this year.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    1. Re:Youngins by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      I remember when MySpace was a thing.

    2. Re:Youngins by hazardPPP · · Score: 1

      It didn't just start.

      Exactly!

      The examples cited in the article are silly...I mean it's silly to use them to argue that "this was the year". Automated cashiers at supermarkets? That's been a thing for ages. Yes, over time more have been popping up....but I've yet to see one that's faster and more convenient than an actual human cashier (they used to be faster when most people avoided them, meaning there was no line...but now that they are used, I find them usually quite slower than the human-run line). Self-service kiosks at fast food restaurants? Geez, I saw that at McDonald's at least 6-7 years ago.

      Service jobs have been automated away for a long time now (yet, there is still a ton of them). People forget all the paper pushers that computers put out of a job from the 70s through to the 90s. What 1 corporate accountant does today on a computer used to require literally a room full of people. "Calculator" was a job description. On the other hand, "social media outreach coordinator" was definitely not a job description in 1965, yet it very much is today.

      Maybe it has accelerated or reached some kind of inflection point, but it certainly didn't "begin" this year.

      I doubt we've reached any inflection point. It's just that we're in the middle of an AI hype which thinks deep learning will be able to everything human brains can, which feeds the OMG AUTOMATION THERE AREN'T GONNA BE NO JOBS memes. It's all way overblown...for example, Japan, which is way ahead of everyone else on the automation front, especially in services (you can buy almost anything from a vending machine...there are restaurants where you order from a vending machine even), has an unemployment rate of...wait for it...2.5 percent. Japan is kind of a fast-forward picture of the entire developed world, because they aged the fastest. We are actually going to need a lot of automation going forward because we won't have enough people to do the jobs...since we're going to have a huge retired population that will no longer work, but will still require services.

      On the other hand, in poor countries, people are simply still cheaper than machines in most service jobs. Automating supermarket cashiers just doesn't make sense in say a poor African country, since it costs less to just pay people to man them.

    3. Re:Youngins by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      I remember liking the smell.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    4. Re:Youngins by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      Oh man, I loved that smell! I used to hand out in my schools admin office just to catch whiffs of it :)

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    5. Re:Youngins by ortholattice · · Score: 1

      You are probably thinking of spirit duplicators that printed blue-colored letters. I too loved the smell of freshly printed sheets. Real mimeographs used a stencil where the typewriter cut through a coating so it acted like a silkscreen, and oil-based ink (usually black, but other colors were available) was deposited through the stencil onto paper. Spirit duplicator prints started to fade with more copies, and the typically 20-30 needed for a classroom was just the right amount before it faded. Mimeograph machines could produce a much larger quantity of copies and was used for things like policies that were distributed to all students in the school.

  9. Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Before Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments start pouring in, I got three questions for those posting them: "When are your replacement jobs going to be available?", "Will those replacement jobs pay enough for people to live on?", and "Will the vast majority of people be given the education they need to perform those jobs?"

    If the answers to those questions involve the words "In ten years", "Why would we pay that much?", "No, pay for it yourself", or just "No" then you have some thinking to do. You cannot expect to upend the vast majority's ability to provide for themselves, provide no replacement, and expect people to go along with it. They will see it for what it is: A massive power and wealth transfer from them to you, that will impoverish them and their children for generations. They will see that, and they will fight you over it.

    Yes, you may counter with "But death drones, advanced military training / equipment, and wealth", but those people will be making a choice of not how to live, but how to die. Given the choice of "Go down fighting" vs. "Starve to death / die of dehydration or sickness", many will take the "Go down fighting" option for the sole glimmer of hope, the hope of living and being better off regardless as to how small those chances may be, it provides over the idea of waiting to die.

    So I have one question for you "Where's those easy to get regardless of qualification service center jobs, Mr. Automation?" "Where are they?" Until you can answer that question, you have a problem, and soon to be blood, on your hands.

  10. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by 110010001000 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The Whip buggy manufacturers used to have the same issues. But everyone survived.

  11. Good riddance. by John+Guilt · · Score: 1
    I've done that work, and didn't like that one bit, and so since I don't think I'm fundamentally better than anyone else (note: this is different to being better at some things, at least at some times) I don't want anyone else to be forced by fear of hunger and exposure to do them when an alternative exists.

    Some ancient philosophers argued that slavery were necessary in order for others to have the leisure and energy to be, among other things, philosophers. They had something of a point, although full-on chattel slavery seems a bit much. Similar arguments used to be made for serfdom---how could enough food be grown without people figuratively chained to the land and their boring-awful farming jobs?

    I'd suggest that at least at the start, nations or large co-operatives own the machines that do the work and that make the machines to do the work; eventually when labour becomes too cheap to meter.... Of course, that would reduce the level of hierarchy in society, and some people seem to love that, and not just the ones at the top; it could eliminate poverty, and some people love having someone below them, especially if such 'deserve' it....

    1. Re:Good riddance. by John+Guilt · · Score: 1

      s/do them/do those jobs/1

    2. Re:Good riddance. by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      it could eliminate poverty

      Eliminate poverty by putting people out of work? If I don't have to pay wages to workers because I have robots, who is going to have money to buy my products?

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    3. Re:Good riddance. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Eliminate poverty by putting people out of work? If I don't have to pay wages to workers because I have robots, who is going to have money to buy my products?

      If the people own the means of production, then they're paid the dividends. You're married to pure capitalism. Get over her, she'll never love you back.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  12. things change by hdyoung · · Score: 1

    There are very, very few dependable pools of good jobs. Most job descriptions constantly change - emerging, growing, adapting, stagnating, expanding or being automated out of existence. Very few job descriptions stay constant for very long.

    On the up side, this is a good thing. When society realizes that there is an unmet need for a particular set of skills, people rush/train to meet the need. High demand and a low supply of qualified people means good compensation. For a while at least.

    On the down side, it can be quite a bit more brutal. When a field gets automated, some people manage to keep the few jobs that still exist, and some manage to move into another field by retraining or adapting their pre-existing skills to new conditions. However, it turns out that many people are 1) poor at adapting and 2) incapable of being trained for a job more than once in their lives. These people wind up with permanently reduced income. Understandably, they tend to be unhappy about it.

    1. Re:things change by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      "When society realizes that there is an unmet need for a particular set of skills, people rush/train to meet the need."

      Not really. There has been a shortage of doctors for decades and it isn't likely to get better. Not everyone is going to rush and train to become a doctor.

    2. Re:things change by LetterRip · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Not really. There has been a shortage of doctors for decades and it isn't likely to get better. Not everyone is going to rush and train to become a doctor.

      Already accredited doctors controlled how many doctors that medical schools were allowed to train and how many new schools were accredited. The supply of students willing to become doctors is enormous and would have greatly exceeded demand - but supply was artificially constrained to ensure that existing doctors could charge higher rates.

      So it was actually monopoly control of supply due to artificial constraints rather than students not responding to demand.

    3. Re:things change by shess · · Score: 2

      "When society realizes that there is an unmet need for a particular set of skills, people rush/train to meet the need."

      Not really. There has been a shortage of doctors for decades and it isn't likely to get better. Not everyone is going to rush and train to become a doctor.

      My younger sister became a doctor. She's amazing. When she was embarking on that route, I held my tongue, because, honestly, medical doctors get a ton of shit in the US. The insurance companies make them jump through hoops, and then patients come in and lie or whine or otherwise make their lives hell, and they're in the middle trying to do good work.

      The basic problem is that anyone who can be a medical doctor worth having could also be any of a number of other high-paying jobs with lower expectations.

    4. Re:things change by BigDukeSix · · Score: 1

      This would be a great comment except that there have been TWENTY FOUR new US medical schools established in the last ten years.

    5. Re:things change by Dunbal · · Score: 2

      And the US population has grown from 304 million to 328 million in the last 10 years. You were saying?

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    6. Re:things change by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      I'm a doctor outside the US. I considered going to the US, I even passed the USMLE (US Medical Licensing Exam). But all the paperwork and "guidelines" from payers who don't necessarily have the patient's best interest at heart but rather their bottom line - put me off. I'd rather stay in this small country. I earn less but I have a great deal more freedom as to how to treat my patients - and a much lower risk of predatory lawsuits too.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    7. Re:things change by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      "When society realizes that there is an unmet need for a particular set of skills, people rush/train to meet the need." Not really. There has been a shortage of doctors for decades and it isn't likely to get better. Not everyone is going to rush and train to become a doctor.

      The supply of doctors is artificially limited. The intellect needed to become a doctor is lower than to become a scientist, and yet we have many more scientists than doctors.

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    8. Re:things change by hazardPPP · · Score: 2

      This would be a great comment except that there have been TWENTY FOUR new US medical schools established in the last ten years.

      Do they still work based on the same principles as all the other medical schools? A type of graduate school basically (you don't have to actually have an undergraduate degree, but you had to have started studying for one), highly selective and very expensive?

      The whole system in Canada & the US is set up to constrain the number of medical doctors in order to keep their wages artificially high. In most other countries, medicine is a "normal" university course that one can enrol in right after high school, just like engineering or science or whatever (same goes for law, btw). Medical degrees from other countries get recognized, not like in the US and Canada where they tell European-trained doctors that their degrees are equivalents of a BSc and that they have to go through medical school (or through a set of highly difficult accreditation exams - this tends to vary, state to state and province to province). In the US and Canada doctors tend to heavily out-earn similar highly educated workers such as engineers, whereas in much of Europe their salaries are comparable.

    9. Re:things change by hazardPPP · · Score: 1

      Not only that, but the US has also aged during that time. Generally, older people need more medical care.

    10. Re:things change by BigDukeSix · · Score: 1

      seven percent change in population versus twenty percent change in number of physicians being trained. you are speaking from a position of ignorance.

  13. Re:Martin NiemÃller by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Or, you could learn a new skill that robots won't be able to do.

    Change happens. Compare your lot in life to that of people who literally had to leave everything they owned and RUN FOR THEIR LIVES during the years of 1938 - 1945.

    Maybe you can quit acting like such a helpless pussy after you mull that over.

  14. "Are Robots taking your shitty Jobs?" by DalM · · Score: 2

    "Find out more... after this message from iRobot."

  15. unlink health care from jobs by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    unlink health care from jobs

  16. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by nwaack · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Without livable wages, the options left are UBI and corporate slavery. Glad to see you make an argument for UBI.

    "I slacked off in high school, got bad grades, never considered going to college or tech school, and now I deserve LOTS OF MONEY FROM TEH GUBERMENTS!!!"

    Please. Take some freaking accountability for your life.

  17. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What a preposterous point. As if automation costs the equivalent of $14.99 per hour.

    Guess what. If the minimum wage rising with inflation means you're outcompeted by robots -- you were doomed already.

  18. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

    True, but there was a lot of chaos an uncertainty if you wanted to stay an employed textile worker, carriage maker, carriage driver, etc.. I'm speaking about the middle and late Victorian Era during the Industrial Revolution. The Luddites might be considered backwards today, but they were real people who got displaced and had to face real consequences and in some cases they were severe for them or others (ie.. when they'd riot or tear shit up). I don't know if that has any bearing on if it's inevitable or not, but that isn't my point. I have to wonder if the ends always justify the means. I agree with you in general, but I don't know if I agree with what I perceive as the underlying logic: just because "we survived" didn't mean it didn't suck donkey balls. Ask the Donner Party, for example. Still, I'm also not saying anything should have been done radically differently. I mean, trying to hold back automobiles.... pretty dumb. I guess all I'm saying is that I have a sympathy for the Luddites and I'm starting to wonder if "automation everywhere" is going to lead to a utopia or a Chinese hell.

  19. Robot Barista by jtara · · Score: 1, Funny

    Robot baristas have been here for a while, right? I hope they become more common.

    I hope they will have a program that will slap millennial customers who make everybody else wait while they engage in chit-chat (bro!) and take ten minutes to order when they haven't decided when they get to the front of the line, and have a zillion question about the ingredients. Also, a non-overridable function for the robot to not ask about the desire for "an alternative milk". And not throw indecipherable passive-aggressive shade.

    (Us Baby Boomers can be a bit rude when we don't get good service. But we say what we are unhappy with so that you don't have to guess IF there is something wrong, and if so, WHAT is wrong. In other words, we were taught some basic communication skills.)

    Customer service with millennials on both sides of the counter are a shit show. But neither side will say anything about it, so it never gets fixed.

    1. Re:Robot Barista by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      Also, a non-overridable function for the robot to not ask about the desire for "an alternative milk".

      I'm sorry when you grew up there were only two things (milk, sugar) you could put in coffee. That sounds sad. You probably think the only two pizza toppings are cheese and pepperoni as well.

      And not throw indecipherable passive-aggressive shade.

      Maybe if you just answered the damn question about which kind of cream-thing you wanted instead of launching into a diatribe, you wouldn't get shade?

      (Us Baby Boomers can be a bit rude when we don't get good service. But we say what we are unhappy with so that you don't have to guess IF there is something wrong, and if so, WHAT is wrong. In other words, we were taught some basic communication skills.)

      Maybe the problem is that the service you want and expect isn't what the market wants and expects, and you're frustrated that the majority of people want milk-alternatives. Are you also upset that enough people speak Spanish as a first language that companies offer that option as well? Because the free-market has ruled against you on both fronts. Do you want us to insist that we make car rental people ask "and what kind of buggy whip would you like to borrow with your car" to make you feel comfortable?

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  20. Nonetheless by nospam007 · · Score: 1

    " Farm labor, which about half the American workforce used to do, now comprises around 2 percent of American jobs."

    And they get hundreds of billions of dollars of tax money and they still go bankrupt and commit suicide in droves because they cannot compete on the market.

    It sure needs to adapt quite a bit more. If self-driving cars in big city traffic get along, I'm sure that trekkers and other machines would be able to find a field by themselves in the sticks.

    1. Re:Nonetheless by hazardPPP · · Score: 1

      And they get hundreds of billions of dollars of tax money and they still go bankrupt and commit suicide in droves because they cannot compete on the market.

      Maybe the US could implement Canada's supply management system it likes to bash so much, thus creating a farming sector that is profitable without any government subsidies?

    2. Re:Nonetheless by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      And they get hundreds of billions of dollars of tax money and they still go bankrupt and commit suicide in droves because they cannot compete on the market.

      Big Ag gets most of those dollars.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  21. Re:What will the immigrants do? by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

    The hotel and meat packing industry notoriously use extremely high rates of illegal labor. They could also pick veggies which is still done nearly exclusively by a mix of legal and illegal labor (but nearly all non-American). Those are the jobs "nobody will take" because they pay way below minimum wage. I visited a Iowa Beef Packers plant one time in Pampa, Texas. Even the supervisors didn't speak English. That's not an exaggeration, either. The place was also like some kind of Mad Max prison complex where as soon as you came in people would start hooting like chimpanzees and running their knives over things to make sparks. I wish I was joking. I was just there fixing some old Unix boxes that ran the scale calibration tools. Now, that was a long time ago, but I really really doubt it's changed. I'd say it's probably worse, but when you are already at nearly 100% illegals. *shrug*. That's why I think building a wall is a waste of time (I mean you could still just walk/fly/drive in with a passport and overstay). Only e-verify has a chance of helping with the problem.

  22. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

    Now we have apps and AI so I am sure it will be different.

  23. This video covers the issue quite well by DallasTruaxxx · · Score: 1

    How do you have a capitalistic society when human labor has no value? This video outlines the issue fairly well. There is this transition period between a totally non-needs based society, and our current state, that concerns me. That period when more that fifty percent of the population is unemployable, but we are still married to the idea that those individuals should somehow make themselves employable through self improvement. It's simply NOT a reasonable dismissal. https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU

    1. Re:This video covers the issue quite well by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      and doesn't need labor, but rather consumers.

      And if no one is getting hired and therefore earning money - where are they supposed to get the money to "consume" what you're making? You cannot cut labor completely out of the cycle. It is a vital part.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  24. 86% of manufacturing jobs lost by rsilvergun · · Score: 4, Insightful

    were to automation not outsourcing. To be fair outsourcing makes it that much more painful for the few jobs left. But I think it's pretty clear that our current system of wealth distribution isn't going to hold up. As much as people hate it when people get money they didn't earn (which is funny, since rent seeking on the properties your dad willed to you is A-OK) we're either gonna have to get over all that puritanical bullshit or get comfortable with a dystopia of 1% haves and 99% have-nots.

    Here's the thing folks, when 99% are the have nots you're probably not going to be one of the haves. But there's always pride. True story, buddy of mine's a basement dweller living at home in his 40s because he can't find a decent paying job (blue collar guy, couple of mental issues that means he can't hustle like you're expected to in 2018). If you ask him, he's middle class. And Taxed to the Max. I don't even know where he got the phrase, "Taxed to the Max", but he got it, and he's convinced he is, even though on the crappy wages he makes working part time he's not paying any taxes ourside of his vehicle registration on a 20 year old truck. This is what we're up against folks...

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    1. Re:86% of manufacturing jobs lost by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      "We're" up against? I love how you automatically characterize your (imaginary) friend as The Other. I get the idea that's most of the problem. Maybe view people as people? Nah, right?

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    2. Re:86% of manufacturing jobs lost by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      I think "Property Manager" is a job. You seem to think most landlords are property managers. They aren't. They hire property managers (usually very part time, numerous services do this) that fix stuff, price the place, find tenants, etc. They just mail you a check. That's what "capitalism" is.

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    3. Re:86% of manufacturing jobs lost by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      Wow, such hard work, I'm beat.

      And guess who has to replace the leaky roof or fix the plug that stopped working or replace the floor because they did god knows what to it and you'll never be able to rent it again like that...

      It's not all about collecting money. It's a business like any other - there is revenue and there are expenses.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    4. Re:86% of manufacturing jobs lost by hazardPPP · · Score: 1

      So you think being a landlord isn't a job just because you inherited the properties? To be landlord to enough renters to pay a full livable wage isn't a walk in the park. Go manage a property to see for yourself.

      Most* landlords don't manage their properties, they outsource that to a company that takes a cut of the rent (or charges a fixed fee, or a mix of both). If you've ever lived in a rental building, careful examination of your lease contract will likely reveal that the owner of the building (or in some cases, the particular apartment you're renting) and the management you interact with and pay your rent to are not the same entity (person or company).

      * - I mean "most" as in those "those who own the most rental properties". It could be that the majority of "landlords" (in terms of individuals who rent out a piece of their property) are people renting out their basements who do the "property management" by themselves, but I wasn't talking about them. Also I did not include AirBnB and such.

    5. Re:86% of manufacturing jobs lost by hazardPPP · · Score: 1

      So you think being a landlord isn't a job just because you inherited the properties? To be landlord to enough renters to pay a full livable wage isn't a walk in the park. Go manage a property to see for yourself.

      Oh, and actually nobody said being a landlord can't be a job. However if you look at the fact that, as I said in my first reply to you, that landlords usually outsource the property management to others, you have to conclude that usually, the value of the jobs related to property management is less (often significantly less, but that depends on the property market in a given place at a given time) than the value of the rent earned on those properties.

      In other words, go and manage a property for someone else, and see whether your salary is equal to the full rent earned on the properties you're managing. I suspect it will be way below that.

  25. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 2

    Typical. Jealous of those that are better off then you.

    No, not jealous and not of the better off. Angry and at those who rigged the system *against* capitalism so they & theirs could win before I ever got into the game.

    You going to kill someone at your job that has a higher pay grade also? How about someone that has a nicer house, a nicer car.

    No, of course not. Most of them aren't actually "rich" they are just better off than me. I'm talking about truly rich folks that participated in the rigging, not someone with a nicer car. I'm talking about the C-suite, not the guy who worked for 30 years so he could afford a Mercedes.

    Remember this asshole. The rich are those that employ. Who the fuck do you employ? Nobody. You are a leach.

    Nothing wrong with employers. There is something wrong with feudal inducement and rigging the game. What do you say when it's no longer capitalism but corporate feudalism? I'm all for small and medium business when it plays by the rules, but are you seriously going to sit here and defend shit like corporate personhood? If the C-suite got their fucking heads chopped off, do you think it'd really ruin things? I don't and history is on my side.

    I look forward to a civil war. I will be on the side that helps kill those that live off the goverment. I look forward to seeing you with a bullet hole center chest.

    Well, good luck sir. I think you have misjudged me. I'm not the leftist you were looking for. I'm a centrist with a fairly small gun collection, but an expert aim and a lot of ammo. 8 years of biathlon. I'm guessing you are the type who holds his gun sideways and says "blam!" and "pow" when firing. So, we'll see who's chest explodes first on a clear day at a 1000 meters.

  26. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

    LOL! Hehe. Okay. Here's hopin!

  27. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Hmmm... I'm not sure you really understand the way this works.

    Let's clarify some stuff.

    Have you ever seen how much work there is involved with most of these service jobs? Did you ever notice that McDonald's employee's don't spend a great deal of time sitting around? A waitress at a Friday's spends most of her time running her ass off. I can go on, but to be fair, these people work a hell of a lot harder (calorie burning-wise) than I do and they get paid about 1/5-1/20 of I what I do.

    Why in the world would this be the case?

    I've never looked for a job for myself using a job website, but if you look there are generally two types of jobs.
    1) A long ass wallpaper of job requirements that even after 20+ years in the industry with job references from multiple CEOs from successful companies and more current (and maintained honestly) certifications than most engineers, I don't meet half the requirements needed.
    2) "Desperate for money?, We'll hire anyone... and I mean anyone. We won't pay you except commission, but come talk with us"

    The first type, I know I can apply to it and get it usually because I understand the way job requirements are written. I'll google the company, read their shareholder reports, find out what products I'm likely to work on and then I'll write a CV or Resume which doesn't answer the job listing but instead identifies why I'm well suited to the position they're hiring for. I've never needed to do this, in fact, it's more likely I'll call a friend of a friend of a friend and get their boss to call me instead which will place me on better terms to list and negotiate my requirements. This is I'm skilled at getting jobs. Most people aren't.

    The second type... unless you have a safety net ... and if you've ever worked for minimum wage, you know the only thing which even resembles a safety net in that circumstance is "Bank of Mom and Dad" if there's anything there to withdraw. As such, while some people might be able to do that, most people aren't suited for these jobs. They generally require professional confidence. My company leased space to a company like this, when we went to the cafeteria, we saw them. They had an entirely new set of people almost every month possibly quicker.

    This leaves the final type of job... "Help wanted".

    When you're at a burger joint and there's a sign on the wall which says "Help Wanted", it's convenient and the employer is clearly expressing their needs. You understand that the job will pay minimum wage before you even apply but you take it because... well it's there and the terms are pretty well understood by both the employee and employer before the application is filled out.

    If you're applying for a job which has a... well job application... which means they don't expect to see a CV/Resume and if you provided one, they will still ask you to fill out this form anyway, well, you know this is not going to be a great position and you also generally won't be highly regarded since... well instead of talking with you and learning about you, they instead justifiably assume there's something wrong with you... after all, you're the type of person who would actually apply for such a miserable job.

    Now, most people don't know that McDonald's and Burger King have always had incredible internal educational programs and if you work there for 2-3 years and work your way up, the owner of the restaurant may decide it makes sense to sponsor you at McDonald's or Burger King University. If this happens, you can be on a great 6-figure career path. But probably less than one in a thousand workers go that route.

    No. Personal responsibility is not an option.

    Another example is that America builds prisons faster than McDonald's builds restaurants. This is great because the people sit around on their asses waiting for the government to open coal mines back up... even when there's simply no coal left in the mine or there's simply no one left to sell it to and even

  28. Always my same question on these stories. by WolfgangVL · · Score: 3, Interesting

    And how tall does the mountain of machine-made-hamburgers get before the machine realizes nobody has the money to buy them?

    A very big change is right on the horizon, but I don't think anybody can even comprehend the consequences.

    My solution? \
    Human sized hampster wheels to generate the power for the machines. Automation AND green power.

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    1. Re:Always my same question on these stories. by shess · · Score: 1

      And how tall does the mountain of machine-made-hamburgers get before the machine realizes nobody has the money to buy them?

      A very big change is right on the horizon, but I don't think anybody can even comprehend the consequences.

      My solution? \
      Human sized hampster wheels to generate the power for the machines. Automation AND green power.

      And it solves our obesity problem. You should kickstart this!

    2. Re:Always my same question on these stories. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Wasn't that a black mirror episode?

    3. Re:Always my same question on these stories. by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

      These days, people eat out more than ever. This was unheard-of 50 years ago. Eating out back then was a luxury. Now, a lot of people barely know how to cook, they eat out so much. How do you figure that nobody can afford restaurant food?

    4. Re:Always my same question on these stories. by WolfgangVL · · Score: 1

      The robots are gonna take their jerbs!

      Try to keep up.

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      You are being ripped off every second of every day, so that advertisers can help rip you off even more tomorrow.
  29. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    No. There is a third option. Revolution. Don't tax and redistribute from the rich. Hang them from lamp posts and chop off their heads with guillotines. Wages rose almost across the board after the French Revolution. Other similar historical events argue for "kill them or make them believe you will" as the best option. I guess the rich folks were able to un-ass some additional funds, after all. Funny how they were able to rummage through the couch cushions after they'd just watch the last rich dude get his neck stretched by the locals after his foreign guards in his gated community fled the scene.

    Seems to have worked so well in Venezuela.

    "Socialism. THIS TIME it will work!"

    Grow a brain.

  30. Re:$15 an hour by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 1

    And...how much will that $15/hour with no additional benefits buy you in 2020 compared to $9/hours in 2016 plus food stamps and welfare

  31. Re:Martin NiemÃller by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Or, you could learn a new skill that robots won't be able to do and neither will any of the other people who were displaced.

    FTFY

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  32. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    The people who were displaced were knocked down a few rungs on the economic ladder.

    Which is a bit of a bugger if you're already on the bottom one.

    http://peterhousehold.blogspot...

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  33. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 4, Insightful

    1) A long ass wallpaper of job requirements that even after 20+ years in the industry with job references from multiple CEOs from successful companies and more current (and maintained honestly) certifications than most engineers, I don't meet half the requirements needed.

    The first type, I know I can apply to it and get it usually because I understand the way job requirements are written. [after some research] I'll call a friend of a friend of a friend and get their boss to call me instead which will place me on better terms to list and negotiate my requirements.

    That kind of job posting is what you see when they already have the candidate they want, but are required to post it and give others an "equal" chance at it. They don't want to switch. So they post a set of requirements that exactly matches the qualifications of the candidate they have in mind - all of them, not just the ones needed for the job. Few, if any, others will have every single oddball bit of experience the one they have in mind, so nobody comes by to rock the boat.

    Sometimes it's impossible - because the actual candidate didn't have the qualifications, either, but had a fake resume. (That often happens with agencies bringing in H1-Bs. They do this so no real candidates can displace their warm body. My wife once hired one who supposedly had a masters in Comp Sci. The candidate didn't know about this, and risked her visa to point it out. My wife hired her because she DID have enough on the ball to do the job and was honest enough to tell truth to power even when it might be detrimental.)

    If you do get through, and do convince them that you're a better pick, they'll have to post it again before they sign you up. So they'll make up another one exactly tuned to your history.

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  34. ...and the year of robot service jobs begin by 4wdloop · · Score: 1

    Somebody will have to maintain the robots....until the new generation of robotic robot maintainers is deployed...

    --
    4wdloop
  35. Re: Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's funny how Neo-Cons who call for civil war or 'thinning the herd' always assume they are worthy and they'd be spared being placed against the wall.

  36. Labor force participation rate sucks though by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

    You have to go back to the early 1980's to get such a bad labor force participation rate though... It's been pretty much like that since 2009.

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  37. He's not imaginary by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    or even that special. I'm not the first person to notice that the working class refuses to think of themselves as such. He's not the other, known the guy since 7th grade and he is and remains my closest friend.

    But you're strawmaning to avoid the issuea, which is that:

    a. Automation is going to put us all out of work and if we don't change how we distribute wealth everybody but a lucky few born into it will live like shit (think Indian reservations but on a global scale).

    b. Right wing politics don't work, you know this and it makes you very uncomfortable. Stop reading Ayn Rand and hating yourself and start looking around at the deck stacked against you. You'll have an uncomfortable free years while you work out the demons put in your head by the billion dollar propaganda machines like Fox News and Rush but you'll be better for it.

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    1. Re:He's not imaginary by hazardPPP · · Score: 1

      a. Automation is going to put us all out of work and if we don't change how we distribute wealth everybody but a lucky few born into it will live like shit (think Indian reservations but on a global scale).

      b. Right wing politics don't work, you know this and it makes you very uncomfortable. Stop reading Ayn Rand and hating yourself and start looking around at the deck stacked against you. You'll have an uncomfortable free years while you work out the demons put in your head by the billion dollar propaganda machines like Fox News and Rush but you'll be better for it.

      Point "b" is pretty correct but I think you're wrong on point "a". Actually there's a whole bunch of jobs we could create if we distributed the wealth better. Well, first off, even without that, we are just terrible at imagining the jobs of the future. Think of all the entertainment-related jobs we have today, which 50, 100, or 200 years nobody could imagine, and if they could (or you told them) they'd think of a society with so many of those jobs as some sort of immoral dystopia. Tell someone in 1700 that in 300 years, only 2% of people will be farmers, they'd probably first ask you "so who killed off all the unnecessary farmers then?"

      That put aside, back to the first point, which is the jobs I can imagine we could create. Think first of education, the current education paradigm is actually not very humane and is designed to create factory workers (which at some point in the future, will basically not be needed). 20, 30, 40 kids to a class? Ideally children should interact with their teachers in groups of 5-10 most of the time, and there should be a lot of 1:1 tutoring (this is how education actually was back before the industrial age, before it was a mass institution, and some high-quality (often private) institutions work this way still today). Then a whole bunch of social services, more people in health care, more people caring for the elderly (there's going to be a lot more of those folks around), and so on.

  38. Re: Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yep. They also assume that only the farthest far-right folks could possibly operate a firearm. They don't realize that there are some rather civilized sporting activity which involves firearms and that sometimes a non-far-right-person with a gun. I'm not a far-right guy (centrist/pragmatist here), but as a 20-something it was hard to stop biathlon in college and I still love shooting. I'm not saying I'm some kind of trained sniper/soldier (and I don't like/want to hurt people). Those are different skills. Soldiers know how to work together to kill other soldiers and I definitely don't. However, nether do most vocal jerkhole "I'm gonna git you when the SHTF, you lefty!" types either. The soldiers I've met are more polite and professional (albeit, usually right-of-center politically) than that and wouldn't be threatening to shoot me "center chest" (do you think he meant "center mass" ?)

  39. Thought experiment by Beeftopia · · Score: 2

    1) Since the Industrial revolution (and really with every advance in production technology), fewer people are necessary to create things that people value. The phenomenon is the "consolidation of the production of value." For example, instead of 10 farmers producing enough for a subsistence living with primitive technology, one farmer can produce a lot with advanced tech. Instead of 100 people required to run a store that generates 20 million a year in revenue, with advanced tech it now only requires 10.

    2) So there's a "production pyramid": at the bottom, everyone makes everything they need. The next layer up it requires fewer people to make everything everyone needs. The next layer up even fewer.

    3) Thought experiment: imagine the top of the pyramid. One man (or woman) can make everything everyone needs. He owns all the productive capital. How to distribute money then?

    One thing to realize.
    i. People are necessary to create demand, for both goods and services, and the money to buy those goods and services. Without any people and no demand, money is worthless, and the single value creator is only making things for his own consumption.

    So: How to distribute money in the one creator system, at the top of the pyramid? How about 2 layers down? How about 50 layers down?

    1. Re:Thought experiment by zaq1xsw2cde9 · · Score: 1

      There's no such thing as "one man (or woman) can make everything everyone needs." Not even close, and there never will be. Your fantasy "thought experiment" is an excuse for the socialist redistribution of wealth.

      Whoooosh!

    2. Re:Thought experiment by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

      Interesting thought experiment, but it makes an assumption that is incorrect: that there is only one pyramid.

      The first pyramid (industrial revolution) has reached its peak. We've gone from an economy where 90%+ of workers were farmers or factory workers, to now, where less than 5% do these jobs.

      But we have a new pyramid: computing. In the beginning, programming was labor intensive. It's becoming less and less so.

      Other pyramids include healthcare and business processes.

      As we reach the top of each pyramid, other brand new jobs are invented, forming the base of a new pyramid.

      We'll never reach the ultimate pinnacle.

  40. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Dunbal · · Score: 1, Informative

    Wages rose almost across the board after the French Revolution.

    And yet poverty still existed in post revolutionary France. The glorious Soviet revolution also failed to cure poverty in the USSR worker's paradise. Discuss.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  41. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by someoneOtherThanMe · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Try to see it more practically. Such people are here. Once we decide you can't kill them, they are here to stay and the others will provide for them in basically one of three ways:
    -giving them some way of social support/welfare
    -putting them in prison for most of their lives
    -having stuff that they can steal.
    The first option is the cheapest in terms of overall cost to the economy, the last is by far the most expensive and also the most unpleasant.

  42. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by Your.Master · · Score: 1

    You honesty can't think of a solution for touchscreens at McDonalds testing positive for feces?

    The solution is near field communication to a cellphone you own. No physical contact. Problem solved... ...as if that were the problem in the first place. Did you try testing the door handles at McDonalds?

  43. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

    Try to see it more practically. Such people are here. Once we decide you can't kill them, they are here to stay and the others will provide for them in basically one of three ways: -giving them some way of social support/welfare -putting them in prison for most of their lives -having stuff that they can steal. The first option is the cheapest in terms of overall cost to the economy, the last is by far the most expensive and also the most unpleasant.

    Seems to me you are arguing against UBI.

    --
    I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
  44. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1
    "The government allowed a situation where my entire town worked for a single employer making stuff for an industry which the government banned, putting 35,000 people out of work, and overloading all the support services. The nearest jobs are a five hour drive."

    And you don't think the government is responsible for my predicament?

    Trump should be building a wall around you!

  45. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by Anne+Thwacks · · Score: 1
    "Let them eat apps?"

    Marie-Antoinette, that did not end well for your great grandmother!

    --
    Sent from my ASR33 using ASCII
  46. Re:Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments. by geoscodin · · Score: 1

    I see very few people use the touchscreens, unless there is a long line. And you can easily avoid the fecal factor by ordering ahead on the app and picking it up. Plus plenty of companies offer delivery from pretty much anywhere you want through their own app: Grub Hub, Uber Eats, 256ToGo, BiteSquad, Door Dash, Eat24, etc.

  47. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Dunbal · · Score: 1

    and chance of not starving.

    Not starving by starving.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  48. I do by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    because the cost is baked into my rent. You do know your landlord isn't doing that out of the goodness of his/her heart, right? Donald Trump rather famously used maintenance as an excuse to jack up rates and increase profits.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:I do by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      I'm the landlord. And yes the cost is included in the rent. Just like the cost for advertising and fuel is baked into the price of your cereal. What are you trying to say? I was merely pointing out to AC that renting isn't just sitting back and collecting checks. It's a business like any other, with all sorts of problems from people who don't pay to houses that don't rent to blocked toilets.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  49. Open border people say we need illegals for farms by pgmrdlm · · Score: 1

    Out of the three major sectors of the economy -- agriculture, manufacturing, and service -- two are already largely automated. Farm labor which about half the American workforce used to do, now comprises around 2 percent of American jobs. And we all know the rust belt song and dance, beat out to outsourcing and mechanization. Which is largely why some 80 percent of all American jobs are service jobs. And this year, quietly but in the open, the robots and their investors came for them, too.

    Every time I have someone say we need illegals for farm jobs Americans won't do, I just link to sites that promote the robotics for farming. I never hear shit from them again.

    --
    Anonymous comments are as pathetic as the anonymous "sources" that contaminate gutless journalism from the New York Time
  50. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

    That's an easy one. First, I'd rather be starving due to my own personal setbacks than due to some aristocrat's boot on my neck. Second, are you really seriously making the point that because a revolution didn't cure absolutely everybody's problems that it still didn't come out better for the common people of France? Plus, your reference to the USSR seems off-topic. What does that have to do with the French Revolution? Are you saying that because the Bolsheviks had a revolution to overthrow the Czars that's some kind of counter example? You think they'd have been better of with the Czars? I'll grant you that some revolutions come out much better than others. I can even think of a few that would have probably been better (again for common people) if they'd never happened. It's dicey business, for sure. The main problem is that the revolutionaries usually start in-fighting for power the minute it's clear they are going to get any. France was definitely no exception to that. Some revolutions get started specifically to put in power leftist regimes and those have a much less successful history (but still it's hit & miss). The bottom line is that when people start watching their children starve, they aren't going to stop for a second and say "Well, hell, if we start a revolution it might not end perfectly. Some people might not benefit." They think "FUCK THIS IT'S ON" and go from there. What matters in the end is if the revolution ends up putting more or less freedom and agency in the hands of normal people. That's the determining factor for it's overall utility and just like life there are no guarantees. As the saying goes it's better to die on your feet than live on your knees.

  51. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by max99ted · · Score: 1

    Happy Holidays!!!

    --

    Please stop APK.. you're only hurting yourself.

  52. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by nwaack · · Score: 1

    I have no problem temporarily helping people who are down on their luck, but when people such as you support lifelong welfare, it perpetuates the problem and helps no one. It's just continuing the cycle of lazy, unaccountable leaches slowly destroying our society.

  53. Re: Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by painandgreed · · Score: 1

    Yep. They also assume that only the farthest far-right folks could possibly operate a firearm. They don't realize that there are some rather civilized sporting activity which involves firearms and that sometimes a non-far-right-person with a gun.

    True. I know plenty of self identifying radical lefties that own plenty of guns. They just don't advertise it or form things like militias, because they figure it would just be putting their name on another list somewhere.

  54. Re: Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

    I've encountered the same types. IMHO, marksmanship, like many skills, is well distributed in the population for multiple legitimate reasons. I'm believe competitive marksmen are the most accurate vs LEOs & soldiers. There is pressure & structure to build skill and it works. However, since I haven't had to use those skills shooting back at people trying to kill me, I acknowledge my total full-of-shitness on any martial use of firearms. I've only ever guiltily killed rabbits for food while camping when it comes to hurting something with a gun. I killed a squirrel and to this day it haunts me and I feel guilty.

  55. Re: Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Seven+Spirals · · Score: 1

    Also, I should say, cops & soldiers often are or become competitive and you see that all the time. To have enough time & energy to both sounds tiring.

  56. Re:MAGA bich by Gamer_2k4 · · Score: 1

    Not really... but weren't you ridiculous "conservative" idiots clamoring and crying about "picking winners and losers" just a couple years back? $5 billion to employ a couple thousand (underpaid..) construction workers is about as smart as paying Soy and Pork producers to sit on their unsellable wares because you wanted to pick a publicity fight with China (and then cave anyway).

    You really need to get back to your "invisible hand" bullshit arguments, those were much more entertaining.

    You may not agree with the purpose of a job - in this case, building a border wall - but it's still people laboring and being paid for that labor, not to mention suppliers being paid for construction materials actually used in the building of that wall. That's nothing at all like paying subsidies to an industry that otherwise can't support itself.

  57. Re:Totally unrelated to the "Drive for $15" by Gamer_2k4 · · Score: 1

    That's a whole lot of writing for how little you're actually saying - how little is true fact rather than just personal opinion and perspective. I'm not going to take the time to respond to every line, but there are a couple of important points to be made just the same.

    1) There are two types of jobs, yes, but it's even simpler than what you're suggesting. There are jobs that require experience or learned skillsets, and there are jobs that don't. Is it any wonder the former pays more? McDonalds pays a low wage because literally anyone can fill the job. If you hire a teenager who has never held a job in his life, he can learn everything he needs to know on day one, or by the end of his first week at the absolute latest. Manual labor jobs are the same way. You might have to pay out a little more for hazard pay or because people aren't interested in the work, but ultimately, it's something anyone can do.

    The other jobs, the ones that require talent and ability, pay more because the supply of workers is much more limited. Perhaps those workers aren't on their feet all the time, or aren't stressed out all the time (though many are), or aren't "burning calories" the same way someone else might. But they're the only ones who can do that job, and they put in a lot of time, effort, and money to get to that point. That's why they're paid more.

    2) I don't know how you can go right from a sentence saying "the opportunities are out there for people who go after them, even in fast food" to "personal responsibility isn't an option." It sounds to me like personal responsibility is the only option - those who put in the effort advance and get the rewards. And you yourself said you have the ability to get jobs because you know what you need to do to look good for your potential employers. What is that if not the personality responsibility you've taken on for yourself?

    3) Your points about prisons and mines are just a mess of misinformation and bad opinion. We're nowhere near running out of resources to mine, and your framing of the US military as just a spot to put otherwise unemployed citizens is laughable. As for your "jobs are going away" gloom and doom talk, people have been saying that with every new technological advance for centuries. There will always be a place for the human element in the workforce.

    4) No one worth listening to considers "government dependency" and "government employment" to be the same thing. Yes, the government employs a lot of people. How could it not? But when people complain about people relying on government aid, they're talking about handouts given out to people who AREN'T working, not salaries rightfully paid to people who are.