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This Was the Year the Robot Takeover of Service Jobs Began (gizmodo.com)
merbs writes: Out of the three major sectors of the economy -- agriculture, manufacturing, and service -- two are already largely automated. Farm labor, which about half the American workforce used to do, now comprises around 2 percent of American jobs. And we all know the rust belt song and dance, beat out to outsourcing and mechanization. Which is largely why some 80 percent of all American jobs are service jobs. And this year, quietly but in the open, the robots and their investors came for them, too.
There's a case to be made that 2018 is the year automation took its biggest lunge forward toward our largest pool of human labor: Amazon opened five cashier-less stores; three in Seattle, one in Chicago, and one in San Francisco. Self-ordering kiosks invaded fast food and franchise restaurants in a big way. Smaller robot-centric outfits like the long-awaited auto-burger joint Creator opened, too, and so did a number of others.
In Las Vegas, our service job mecca, hotels' and casinos' widespread plans for automation in everything from bartending to waitstaff to hotel work led one of the city's most powerful hospitality unions to the brink of a 50,000-person strike last summer before a successful negotiation was reached... Combined, they act as a set of markers on a trendline we can no longer ignore. We face the prospect of major upheaval in the last dependable pool of jobs we've got.
There's a case to be made that 2018 is the year automation took its biggest lunge forward toward our largest pool of human labor: Amazon opened five cashier-less stores; three in Seattle, one in Chicago, and one in San Francisco. Self-ordering kiosks invaded fast food and franchise restaurants in a big way. Smaller robot-centric outfits like the long-awaited auto-burger joint Creator opened, too, and so did a number of others.
In Las Vegas, our service job mecca, hotels' and casinos' widespread plans for automation in everything from bartending to waitstaff to hotel work led one of the city's most powerful hospitality unions to the brink of a 50,000-person strike last summer before a successful negotiation was reached... Combined, they act as a set of markers on a trendline we can no longer ignore. We face the prospect of major upheaval in the last dependable pool of jobs we've got.
So I guess it's not the end of the world. Plus, I can always go back to dancing in the clubs like I did to get myself through college.
I was flipping burgers in San Francisco and this Creator company came in and everyone went there and there are no burger flipping jobs left. So then I became a Chess grandmaster and the AI took that job, so I became a Go grandmaster and then the AI took those jobs too. I finally settled on being a taxi driver, so I am OK now.
We can continue to provide government subsidies, charge high import tariff on farm products to make sure the farm industry can replace workers with robots, while blaming China for the lost jobs.
What happens when labor has no value? Or, when all that matters is capital? .. to say nothing of provide for their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness?
How will people earn respect
Please reply with your ideas, ideally without trolling. I would especially like to hear anything beyond the extremes of Death Universal Basic Income. Neither of these allow for self-respect.
It didn't just start. I remember calling in to the movie theater, getting a person on the phone, and having a conversation about which movies were playing. Poor woman probably wanted to kill herself, and she was replaced by a tape machine - and eventually by "MoviePhone". This was just one part of an overall move to voicemail/menu systems to replace human interaction. I remember the first self-checkout line at the grocery store, and prior to that the first barcode scanner. Prior to that the stock boys had to use a price gun to put a price on every goddamn item (I know because I was a stock boy and I had to do that). Airplanes had a flight engineer. Postal workers manually sorted mail. Companies had "secretary pools" to manually copy documents (OK, that was before my time, along with washing machines, vacuum cleaners, and dishwashers). Service jobs have been replaced by machinery since we invented machinery. Maybe it has accelerated or reached some kind of inflection point, but it certainly didn't "begin" this year.
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
Before Before the "Whip buggy manufacturers" comments start pouring in, I got three questions for those posting them: "When are your replacement jobs going to be available?", "Will those replacement jobs pay enough for people to live on?", and "Will the vast majority of people be given the education they need to perform those jobs?"
If the answers to those questions involve the words "In ten years", "Why would we pay that much?", "No, pay for it yourself", or just "No" then you have some thinking to do. You cannot expect to upend the vast majority's ability to provide for themselves, provide no replacement, and expect people to go along with it. They will see it for what it is: A massive power and wealth transfer from them to you, that will impoverish them and their children for generations. They will see that, and they will fight you over it.
Yes, you may counter with "But death drones, advanced military training / equipment, and wealth", but those people will be making a choice of not how to live, but how to die. Given the choice of "Go down fighting" vs. "Starve to death / die of dehydration or sickness", many will take the "Go down fighting" option for the sole glimmer of hope, the hope of living and being better off regardless as to how small those chances may be, it provides over the idea of waiting to die.
So I have one question for you "Where's those easy to get regardless of qualification service center jobs, Mr. Automation?" "Where are they?" Until you can answer that question, you have a problem, and soon to be blood, on your hands.
"Find out more... after this message from iRobot."
unlink health care from jobs
What a preposterous point. As if automation costs the equivalent of $14.99 per hour.
Guess what. If the minimum wage rising with inflation means you're outcompeted by robots -- you were doomed already.
were to automation not outsourcing. To be fair outsourcing makes it that much more painful for the few jobs left. But I think it's pretty clear that our current system of wealth distribution isn't going to hold up. As much as people hate it when people get money they didn't earn (which is funny, since rent seeking on the properties your dad willed to you is A-OK) we're either gonna have to get over all that puritanical bullshit or get comfortable with a dystopia of 1% haves and 99% have-nots.
Here's the thing folks, when 99% are the have nots you're probably not going to be one of the haves. But there's always pride. True story, buddy of mine's a basement dweller living at home in his 40s because he can't find a decent paying job (blue collar guy, couple of mental issues that means he can't hustle like you're expected to in 2018). If you ask him, he's middle class. And Taxed to the Max. I don't even know where he got the phrase, "Taxed to the Max", but he got it, and he's convinced he is, even though on the crappy wages he makes working part time he's not paying any taxes ourside of his vehicle registration on a 20 year old truck. This is what we're up against folks...
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Typical. Jealous of those that are better off then you.
No, not jealous and not of the better off. Angry and at those who rigged the system *against* capitalism so they & theirs could win before I ever got into the game.
You going to kill someone at your job that has a higher pay grade also? How about someone that has a nicer house, a nicer car.
No, of course not. Most of them aren't actually "rich" they are just better off than me. I'm talking about truly rich folks that participated in the rigging, not someone with a nicer car. I'm talking about the C-suite, not the guy who worked for 30 years so he could afford a Mercedes.
Remember this asshole. The rich are those that employ. Who the fuck do you employ? Nobody. You are a leach.
Nothing wrong with employers. There is something wrong with feudal inducement and rigging the game. What do you say when it's no longer capitalism but corporate feudalism? I'm all for small and medium business when it plays by the rules, but are you seriously going to sit here and defend shit like corporate personhood? If the C-suite got their fucking heads chopped off, do you think it'd really ruin things? I don't and history is on my side.
I look forward to a civil war. I will be on the side that helps kill those that live off the goverment. I look forward to seeing you with a bullet hole center chest.
Well, good luck sir. I think you have misjudged me. I'm not the leftist you were looking for. I'm a centrist with a fairly small gun collection, but an expert aim and a lot of ammo. 8 years of biathlon. I'm guessing you are the type who holds his gun sideways and says "blam!" and "pow" when firing. So, we'll see who's chest explodes first on a clear day at a 1000 meters.
Hmmm... I'm not sure you really understand the way this works.
... and if you've ever worked for minimum wage, you know the only thing which even resembles a safety net in that circumstance is "Bank of Mom and Dad" if there's anything there to withdraw. As such, while some people might be able to do that, most people aren't suited for these jobs. They generally require professional confidence. My company leased space to a company like this, when we went to the cafeteria, we saw them. They had an entirely new set of people almost every month possibly quicker.
Let's clarify some stuff.
Have you ever seen how much work there is involved with most of these service jobs? Did you ever notice that McDonald's employee's don't spend a great deal of time sitting around? A waitress at a Friday's spends most of her time running her ass off. I can go on, but to be fair, these people work a hell of a lot harder (calorie burning-wise) than I do and they get paid about 1/5-1/20 of I what I do.
Why in the world would this be the case?
I've never looked for a job for myself using a job website, but if you look there are generally two types of jobs.
1) A long ass wallpaper of job requirements that even after 20+ years in the industry with job references from multiple CEOs from successful companies and more current (and maintained honestly) certifications than most engineers, I don't meet half the requirements needed.
2) "Desperate for money?, We'll hire anyone... and I mean anyone. We won't pay you except commission, but come talk with us"
The first type, I know I can apply to it and get it usually because I understand the way job requirements are written. I'll google the company, read their shareholder reports, find out what products I'm likely to work on and then I'll write a CV or Resume which doesn't answer the job listing but instead identifies why I'm well suited to the position they're hiring for. I've never needed to do this, in fact, it's more likely I'll call a friend of a friend of a friend and get their boss to call me instead which will place me on better terms to list and negotiate my requirements. This is I'm skilled at getting jobs. Most people aren't.
The second type... unless you have a safety net
This leaves the final type of job... "Help wanted".
When you're at a burger joint and there's a sign on the wall which says "Help Wanted", it's convenient and the employer is clearly expressing their needs. You understand that the job will pay minimum wage before you even apply but you take it because... well it's there and the terms are pretty well understood by both the employee and employer before the application is filled out.
If you're applying for a job which has a... well job application... which means they don't expect to see a CV/Resume and if you provided one, they will still ask you to fill out this form anyway, well, you know this is not going to be a great position and you also generally won't be highly regarded since... well instead of talking with you and learning about you, they instead justifiably assume there's something wrong with you... after all, you're the type of person who would actually apply for such a miserable job.
Now, most people don't know that McDonald's and Burger King have always had incredible internal educational programs and if you work there for 2-3 years and work your way up, the owner of the restaurant may decide it makes sense to sponsor you at McDonald's or Burger King University. If this happens, you can be on a great 6-figure career path. But probably less than one in a thousand workers go that route.
No. Personal responsibility is not an option.
Another example is that America builds prisons faster than McDonald's builds restaurants. This is great because the people sit around on their asses waiting for the government to open coal mines back up... even when there's simply no coal left in the mine or there's simply no one left to sell it to and even
Not really. There has been a shortage of doctors for decades and it isn't likely to get better. Not everyone is going to rush and train to become a doctor.
Already accredited doctors controlled how many doctors that medical schools were allowed to train and how many new schools were accredited. The supply of students willing to become doctors is enormous and would have greatly exceeded demand - but supply was artificially constrained to ensure that existing doctors could charge higher rates.
So it was actually monopoly control of supply due to artificial constraints rather than students not responding to demand.
And how tall does the mountain of machine-made-hamburgers get before the machine realizes nobody has the money to buy them?
A very big change is right on the horizon, but I don't think anybody can even comprehend the consequences.
My solution? \
Human sized hampster wheels to generate the power for the machines. Automation AND green power.
You are being ripped off every second of every day, so that advertisers can help rip you off even more tomorrow.
1) A long ass wallpaper of job requirements that even after 20+ years in the industry with job references from multiple CEOs from successful companies and more current (and maintained honestly) certifications than most engineers, I don't meet half the requirements needed.
The first type, I know I can apply to it and get it usually because I understand the way job requirements are written. [after some research] I'll call a friend of a friend of a friend and get their boss to call me instead which will place me on better terms to list and negotiate my requirements.
That kind of job posting is what you see when they already have the candidate they want, but are required to post it and give others an "equal" chance at it. They don't want to switch. So they post a set of requirements that exactly matches the qualifications of the candidate they have in mind - all of them, not just the ones needed for the job. Few, if any, others will have every single oddball bit of experience the one they have in mind, so nobody comes by to rock the boat.
Sometimes it's impossible - because the actual candidate didn't have the qualifications, either, but had a fake resume. (That often happens with agencies bringing in H1-Bs. They do this so no real candidates can displace their warm body. My wife once hired one who supposedly had a masters in Comp Sci. The candidate didn't know about this, and risked her visa to point it out. My wife hired her because she DID have enough on the ball to do the job and was honest enough to tell truth to power even when it might be detrimental.)
If you do get through, and do convince them that you're a better pick, they'll have to post it again before they sign you up. So they'll make up another one exactly tuned to your history.
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"When society realizes that there is an unmet need for a particular set of skills, people rush/train to meet the need."
Not really. There has been a shortage of doctors for decades and it isn't likely to get better. Not everyone is going to rush and train to become a doctor.
My younger sister became a doctor. She's amazing. When she was embarking on that route, I held my tongue, because, honestly, medical doctors get a ton of shit in the US. The insurance companies make them jump through hoops, and then patients come in and lie or whine or otherwise make their lives hell, and they're in the middle trying to do good work.
The basic problem is that anyone who can be a medical doctor worth having could also be any of a number of other high-paying jobs with lower expectations.
You have to go back to the early 1980's to get such a bad labor force participation rate though... It's been pretty much like that since 2009.
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Yep. They also assume that only the farthest far-right folks could possibly operate a firearm. They don't realize that there are some rather civilized sporting activity which involves firearms and that sometimes a non-far-right-person with a gun. I'm not a far-right guy (centrist/pragmatist here), but as a 20-something it was hard to stop biathlon in college and I still love shooting. I'm not saying I'm some kind of trained sniper/soldier (and I don't like/want to hurt people). Those are different skills. Soldiers know how to work together to kill other soldiers and I definitely don't. However, nether do most vocal jerkhole "I'm gonna git you when the SHTF, you lefty!" types either. The soldiers I've met are more polite and professional (albeit, usually right-of-center politically) than that and wouldn't be threatening to shoot me "center chest" (do you think he meant "center mass" ?)
1) Since the Industrial revolution (and really with every advance in production technology), fewer people are necessary to create things that people value. The phenomenon is the "consolidation of the production of value." For example, instead of 10 farmers producing enough for a subsistence living with primitive technology, one farmer can produce a lot with advanced tech. Instead of 100 people required to run a store that generates 20 million a year in revenue, with advanced tech it now only requires 10.
2) So there's a "production pyramid": at the bottom, everyone makes everything they need. The next layer up it requires fewer people to make everything everyone needs. The next layer up even fewer.
3) Thought experiment: imagine the top of the pyramid. One man (or woman) can make everything everyone needs. He owns all the productive capital. How to distribute money then?
One thing to realize.
i. People are necessary to create demand, for both goods and services, and the money to buy those goods and services. Without any people and no demand, money is worthless, and the single value creator is only making things for his own consumption.
So: How to distribute money in the one creator system, at the top of the pyramid? How about 2 layers down? How about 50 layers down?
And the US population has grown from 304 million to 328 million in the last 10 years. You were saying?
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
Try to see it more practically. Such people are here. Once we decide you can't kill them, they are here to stay and the others will provide for them in basically one of three ways:
-giving them some way of social support/welfare
-putting them in prison for most of their lives
-having stuff that they can steal.
The first option is the cheapest in terms of overall cost to the economy, the last is by far the most expensive and also the most unpleasant.
This would be a great comment except that there have been TWENTY FOUR new US medical schools established in the last ten years.
Do they still work based on the same principles as all the other medical schools? A type of graduate school basically (you don't have to actually have an undergraduate degree, but you had to have started studying for one), highly selective and very expensive?
The whole system in Canada & the US is set up to constrain the number of medical doctors in order to keep their wages artificially high. In most other countries, medicine is a "normal" university course that one can enrol in right after high school, just like engineering or science or whatever (same goes for law, btw). Medical degrees from other countries get recognized, not like in the US and Canada where they tell European-trained doctors that their degrees are equivalents of a BSc and that they have to go through medical school (or through a set of highly difficult accreditation exams - this tends to vary, state to state and province to province). In the US and Canada doctors tend to heavily out-earn similar highly educated workers such as engineers, whereas in much of Europe their salaries are comparable.