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Ars Technica's 2019 'Deathwatch' List Includes Essential and 'Facebook Management' (arstechnica.com)

The editors of Ars Technica have announced their annual "Deathwatch" list, identifying "companies, tech, and trends least likely to succeed in 2019." An anonymous reader quotes their report: The past year has been an absolute freefall for Essential.... The market was ultimately not impressed with the Essential phone, and the fire sales started almost immediately. Only two months after launch, the phone got a permanent $200 price drop, to $499. November saw deals as low as $399. Eventually, the $700 phone was discounted all the way down to $224, thanks to a mix of poor sales and a lack of consumer confidence in the company. A poorly selling phone was one thing, but things really started to look bad for Essential in May, when it was announced the company had cancelled the second generation Essential Phone. The first device took such a toll on the company that it was considering selling itself, and suddenly the future of Essential was in doubt.

While the phone was dead, in May the company said it was focusing on an upcoming smart home product and operating system. But by October, it announced that it was cutting 30 percent of its staff, and the company was pivoting away from smart home products and would try building a phone again. It will re-sell you a missing headphone jack, though. Essential's next phone -- if the company lasts that long -- is supposedly "an AI Phone That Texts People for You" according to Bloomberg. That sounds awful. On top of all that, Essential's CEO and founder Rubin has been the subject of a major sexual misconduct controversy at Google.

They also write that 2019 "is going to probably determine whether Facebook's management team will continue as it is -- or whether there's a stockholder rebellion, or a government lawsuit, or some combination of both that drives CEO Mark Zuckerberg and others out."

Also on their "Deathwatch" list are Snap, and Verizon's "AOL/Yahoo Frankenstein" -- but not Gwyneth Paltrow's Goop. "As much as we'd love to plop Goop on the 2019 Deathwatch, it is still just on our Deathwatch wish list. Goop is, in fact, thriving."

50 comments

  1. A headphone jack ain't gonna cut it by engun · · Score: 3, Funny

    Essential should market their phone as a vaccine-dispelling device with a yoni healing aura, and it will surely sell like hot cakes.

    1. Re: A headphone jack ain't gonna cut it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Give users mire of what they really want. Give them phones with batteries they can replace and that don't have notches. Even with that, I don't think I'd buy a phone from Essential at this point. If the company is in such dire straits financially, I'd risk that software updates could end at any time.

    2. Re:A headphone jack ain't gonna cut it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Now if only essential.com showed ANY phone as not being "Out of Stock". Well, that might be a sign that they aren't going to die soon.

    3. Re:A headphone jack ain't gonna cut it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you fold a hot cake in half it looks like a yoni.

    4. Re: A headphone jack ain't gonna cut it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the company is in such dire straits financially, I'd risk that software updates could end at any time.

      That is fixable. They could simply publish the protocol for flashing new firmware. After that, cyanogen and others will happily provide software for as long as there are a good number of devices in use.

      Software is never an excuse - the sw thing can always be offloaded onto the open-source world, at the price of giving up absolute control over what sw the device runs. Usually not a problem for those who make a living selling devices and not the sw itself.

    5. Re: A headphone jack ain't gonna cut it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Give users mire of what they really want. Give them phones with batteries they can replace and that don't have notches. Even with that, I don't think I'd buy a phone from Essential at this point. If the company is in such dire straits financially, I'd risk that software updates could end at any time.

      they should make a modernized version of the samsung galaxy note 4....
      it (almost) had it all (missing was stuff like ie. FM radio and QWERTY)

      but they should at the very least provide
      USB-C, multimedia dock, NO NOTCH, stylus, minijack, removeable battery, sd card, IR, sensors and publish the protocol for flashing new firmware

      if they then add a module system as well.. ie for stuff like native QWERTY attachments etc... then it would perhaps be interesting

      if they must have edge to edge display, then they should make the camera pop up when used

      ---

      but unfortunatly.. essential seems hellbent on trying to fool everybode in to thinking that a sad iPhone clone with Android is somehow revolutionary

      and now they think a sad iPhone clone with AI is somehow new.. despite all the current phones with AI that already exists...
      are they trying to pull an Apple? .... making an AI Phone then patent it and then pretrend they were the first ones to use AI ever?

  2. No linky? by chrism238 · · Score: 1

    No link to the original Ars Technica article?

    1. Re:No linky? by shanen · · Score: 1

      First link.

      Not to be confused with first post.

      However I think you [chrism238] can probably claim to be first to not read the article before commenting.

      --
      Freedom = (Meaningful - Coerced) Choice != (Speech | Beer^2), and sad sock puppets' bad mods avail them naught.
    2. Re:No linky? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      WTF? Your UID is lower than mine, you should know that all good slashdotters don't RTFS, let alone RTFA...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    3. Re:No linky? by shanen · · Score: 1

      I was obviously going for snide. Three levels of snide, actually.

      Snark hunting on today's Slashdot? Seems so pointless.

      I certainly hope you don't work in a technical field, because your reasoning capabilities are obviously deficient. Most obviously, I did NOT limit my comment to your "good slashdotters" and made no assumptions about the OP. At this point I think most of the "good slashdotters" of yore are RIP. (That is usually a cue for some 3-digit ID to pipe up, eh? "I'm still alive!")

      Seems to be another call for the ancient advice: "If you have nothing to say, then perhaps you should say nothing."

      --
      Freedom = (Meaningful - Coerced) Choice != (Speech | Beer^2), and sad sock puppets' bad mods avail them naught.
  3. "or a government lawsuit" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You mean an indictment for lying to Congress, yeah, that's going to be made a great thing again.

  4. More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    1) Tim Cook as Apple CEO
    2) Windows 10, or at least its update cycle
    3) Elon Musk as Tesla CEO
    4) MoviePass
    5) Smartphones without notches
    6) APK spam on Slashdot

    Wish list:
    1) Ajit Pai as FCC chairman
    2) Systemd

    1. Re:More suggestions by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure MoviePass already died.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    2. Re: More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      #1 and #2 for sure on my wish list.
      Or, that both of those pay more attention to what their customers actually care about.

    3. Re:More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also Musk was out last year from Tesla.

    4. Re:More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He lost his chairman of the board position, he's still ceo

    5. Re:More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He's also repeatedly confessed to being a pedo, if you understand the Trump psychological attack method #1. (of 1)

    6. Re:More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I can definitely see Tim getting the boot. The guys a fucking reject of a CEO. He is clueless.

      Likewise the idiot running Windows now. I don't even care to know his name. Win10 is the biggest shitfest in tech I think I have ever seen. Maliciously updating Windows installs, breaking peoples computers, making people lose data (backups or not, still scummy), costing businesses around the world probably numerous millions in wasted time fixing their shit.
      Windows 7, the new XP.

      Elon Musk, I don't think he will vanish.
      I think he might be smart enough to shut his trap the next time he calls someone a pedo.
      He is proud of what he does but he is aware of his short temper that gets in the way at times.
      I think when all this shit goes down, he might seek help to try control that, if not self censor after the lawsuit goes through. Get some other person to do his tweets for him. Maybe even get someone to make a custom app that is read-only on his end and sends "tweets" to his staff that then send it to Twitter.
      I would if I were him. Don't like the guy at all, but he is still smart and does good things overall despite his stupidity at times. He gets shit done, in spite of the damage done to his health or relationships.
      He is like a stones-throw away from being Malcolm from Malcolm in the Middle or Sheldon from Big Bang Theory - a stupid genius.

    7. Re:More suggestions by Bearhouse · · Score: 1

      Great list; mod up!

    8. Re:More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Smartphones without notches

      Not disagreeing, but notches on a smartphone are a stupid design. They're going to be one of those transient elements that disappears after a few years of prominence (like flip phones).

      APK spam on Slashdot

      APK spam is going to outlive Slashdot.

    9. Re:More suggestions by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      2) Windows 10, or at least its update cycle

      Microsoft is doubling down on their update cycle, and getting as close to continuous integration as they can. In practice the closest they can get is probably weekly releases.

      So get ready for weekly releases of Windows! Hey, no complaining, all the cool kids are doing it!

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    10. Re:More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Microsoft need to unbundle, save themselves and every windows user extra time and effort. Basic MS-Windows needs to be less then 100MB - kernel, browser, installer and intelligent sw loader (that loads dependencies).

    11. Re:More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd like to see Tim Cook go. I don't believe he really understood Jobs as well as Jobs thought.

      MoviePass, that's still around!? No way it makes it to 2020.

  5. Postmortems of the overlooked? by shanen · · Score: 2

    It was an interesting and enjoyable story, but the thing that seemed to be missing was missed picks, as in "Who died without getting listed?", "Which major companies went bust without making the list?", or even "What was the largest collapse that should have been picked?" Focusing on the near-death cases seems relatively easy (at least in terms of the mostly obvious candidates they discussed), but I feel like there might be more to learn from a few postmortems of overlooked failures.

    --
    Freedom = (Meaningful - Coerced) Choice != (Speech | Beer^2), and sad sock puppets' bad mods avail them naught.
    1. Re:Postmortems of the overlooked? by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      If you want that answer, look at the retail B&M market. That's where the businesses that died nobody even heard about happened.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    2. Re:Postmortems of the overlooked? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Informative

      I think the biggest tech failure of 2018 was Theranos.

      Here is a list of 25 other tech flameouts. I never heard of most of them.

      Outside of tech, I think the biggest failure was Sears.

    3. Re:Postmortems of the overlooked? by shanen · · Score: 1

      Thanks, highly informative response, though I still wonder how they missed the Ars Technica list. Theranos in particular seems like it should have been noticed. As it notes, the rest of them were relatively tiny companies, so maybe that's sufficient explanation.

      Sears is probably outside of the scope of Ars Technica. Also it's been a long and pretty visible decline.

      --
      Freedom = (Meaningful - Coerced) Choice != (Speech | Beer^2), and sad sock puppets' bad mods avail them naught.
    4. Re:Postmortems of the overlooked? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      maybe theranos didn't die but moved to that rich-people satellite in earth orbit, t-hehehe

  6. Goop isn't going anywhere by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    People love 1) alternative medicine, and 2) shoving inanimate objects up their holes. Goop was just smart enough to tap into the market where those two segments overlap.

  7. So Some Click On Da Web by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Said you gonna die. Now what? Were you really ever alive?

  8. Lifestyle Brand ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 2

    What people can't even figure out how they want to live for themselves anymore ?

    We may be done for as a species.

    1. Re:Lifestyle Brand ? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Humans are social creatures. It's nothing new.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    2. Re:Lifestyle Brand ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "There's one born every minute" isn't exactly a new insight.

    3. Re:Lifestyle Brand ? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      A lifestyle brand is one that matches your lifestyle. "I like yoga, so I buy yoga-themed things." "I like C64, so I buy everything in rainbows and all my music is chiptunes."

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  9. BSD by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You heard it here first.

    1. Re:BSD by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  10. Essential phone, android with a couple of gimmicks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    I'v never heard of it before so I googled.

    It's a reasonable spec android phone. The one vaguely attractive aspect is a claim of rapid release of updates, sadly not a promise of just security updates for significantly risky vulnerabilities, just fast updates which might mean rapidly implementing things like google not allowing call recording any more.

    It has magnetically attached accessories. I don't want the magnetic strips on my train tickets and payment cards erased when I shove them in my pocket with my phone in a rush. A headphone jack requires a $149 centimetre thick extra thing on the back of the phone

    It has an extra camera for black and white photos. An add-on 3D camera is sold for $49.

    I don't care in the slightest if they go out of business.

     

  11. How accurate were their past lists? by Solandri · · Score: 5, Informative
    I always like to cross-check with past performance to see if a list is actually the result of good research, or just an opinion piece disguised as journalism.
    • 2018: Uber, Twitter, Faraday Future, LeEco, Net Neutrality, HTC, SoundCloud
    • 2017: Yahoo, Yik Yak, Twitter, Theranos (kinda obvious), HTC, Gearbox Software, Blackberry
    • 2016: Yahoo, HTC, Blackberry OS, Groupon, Rdio and Tidal
    • 2015: No results on Google
    • 2014: Radio Shack, Blackberry, HTC, Zynga, AMD

    So how good is their track record?

    • Radio Shack (2014) - bankrupt 2015, 1 year after placed on list
    • Blackberry (2014, 2017) - still around, but effectively dead since they no longer make phones as of 2016
    • HTC (2014, 2016, 2017, 2018) - still around, though its market share has dropped below 1%
    • Zynga (2014) - still around, seems to have stabilized since 2014
    • AMD (2014) - still around, best performing stock of 2018
    • Yahoo (2016, 2017) - swallowed up by Verizon in 2017, so premature call in 2016, full credit for 2017
    • Blackberry OS (2016) - killed in 2016 when they ceased making phones
    • Groupon (2016) - they had a bad 2016, but were in the black in 2017
    • Rdio and Tidal (2016) - Rdio died 2016, Tidal was swallowed by Sprint in Jan 2017, so we'll give Ars credit for this one
    • Yik Yak (2017) - died 2017
    • Theranos (2017) - died in 2018, kinda obvious it was dead
    • Gearbox Software (2017) - still around, though I can't find recent financials
    • Uber (2018) - still around, but took massive losses (-$2.8 billion) in 2018
    • Twitter (2018) - as much as I hate twitter, they seem to have recovered in 2018
    • Faraday Future (2018) - still around but looks likely to die this year
    • LeEco (2018) - still around but on life support, will give Ars credit for this one
    • Net Neutrality (2018) - dead, but kinda obvious
    • SoundCloud (2018) - still around, but still losing money, and expected to keep losing money through 2019

    Final tally:
    7 correct
    3 premature by one year, one obvious (Radio Shack, Yahoo, Theranos)
    9 wrong
    4 unknown (Gearbox, Uber, Faraday Future, SoundCloud)

    So they're batting around .500. Not exactly stellar.

    1. Re:How accurate were their past lists? by TFlan91 · · Score: 1

      If you continue with your baseball reference, you're right a .500 average is not exactly stellar, its amazing.

    2. Re:How accurate were their past lists? by Espectr0 · · Score: 1

      HTC was about to close down before Google bought them so you can count them in the dead pile

    3. Re:How accurate were their past lists? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Google bought the HTC mobile phone division.
      They have other stuff too.

  12. Take it in the notch, essential by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Essential deserves that for inventing this awful cutout (“notch”) in the screen.

  13. They missed the big one by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How could they miss the iPhone in China.

  14. Re:Essential phone, android with a couple of gimmi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I stopped reading at headphone jack! Nuke them (Essentials) from orbit! Burn them at the stake! Kill their offspring so they can't spawn more! Die die die!

    The headphone jacks u back bitches!

  15. Batting .500? by skam240 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I got a kick out of how you used that baseball analogy for this. Batting .500 would in fact be almost god like in modern baseball. Even .400 isn't really considered attainable anymore.

    This doesn't invalidate what you're actually getting at of course, it just means your analogy is terrible.

    --
    I ignore Anonymous Coward posts. If you want to discuss something, that's awesome. Log in.
  16. They forgot one by slashmydots · · Score: 1

    Don't forget Apple.

  17. One notable omission by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yelp. Google reviews has made Yelp obsolete. Also, it really pissed me off when Yelp sent me an email that they were deleting my Yelp profile because apparently they detected another Yelp profile from my same IP address. They would not tell me which other login was using my IP address. But with Internet access shared among multiple people, it is likely that an IP address can be shared among different Yelp accounts. Anyway, I am happy Yelp is dying.

  18. musk and whole of tesla depends on next years numb by gl4ss · · Score: 1

    musk and whole of tesla depends on next years numbers... anyways, the problem for him was that for 10 years he managed to keep the money rolling in with the tweets.

    that is literally what he thinks that kept the investment money rolling in. you can even trace old popular mechanics ideas touted as new ideas on his tweets to tesla needing cash.

    so he thinks thats whats normal, and that it isn't a piss poor idea to have an official company outlet for (stock)news be his twitter account. for various reasons, one of which is that twitter could just ban it for funzies or delete a tweet or two for funzies and thats pretty bad from investor liability viewpoint. you should control your official information.

    --
    world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.