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Ars Technica's 2019 'Deathwatch' List Includes Essential and 'Facebook Management' (arstechnica.com)

The editors of Ars Technica have announced their annual "Deathwatch" list, identifying "companies, tech, and trends least likely to succeed in 2019." An anonymous reader quotes their report: The past year has been an absolute freefall for Essential.... The market was ultimately not impressed with the Essential phone, and the fire sales started almost immediately. Only two months after launch, the phone got a permanent $200 price drop, to $499. November saw deals as low as $399. Eventually, the $700 phone was discounted all the way down to $224, thanks to a mix of poor sales and a lack of consumer confidence in the company. A poorly selling phone was one thing, but things really started to look bad for Essential in May, when it was announced the company had cancelled the second generation Essential Phone. The first device took such a toll on the company that it was considering selling itself, and suddenly the future of Essential was in doubt.

While the phone was dead, in May the company said it was focusing on an upcoming smart home product and operating system. But by October, it announced that it was cutting 30 percent of its staff, and the company was pivoting away from smart home products and would try building a phone again. It will re-sell you a missing headphone jack, though. Essential's next phone -- if the company lasts that long -- is supposedly "an AI Phone That Texts People for You" according to Bloomberg. That sounds awful. On top of all that, Essential's CEO and founder Rubin has been the subject of a major sexual misconduct controversy at Google.

They also write that 2019 "is going to probably determine whether Facebook's management team will continue as it is -- or whether there's a stockholder rebellion, or a government lawsuit, or some combination of both that drives CEO Mark Zuckerberg and others out."

Also on their "Deathwatch" list are Snap, and Verizon's "AOL/Yahoo Frankenstein" -- but not Gwyneth Paltrow's Goop. "As much as we'd love to plop Goop on the 2019 Deathwatch, it is still just on our Deathwatch wish list. Goop is, in fact, thriving."

25 of 50 comments (clear)

  1. A headphone jack ain't gonna cut it by engun · · Score: 3, Funny

    Essential should market their phone as a vaccine-dispelling device with a yoni healing aura, and it will surely sell like hot cakes.

  2. No linky? by chrism238 · · Score: 1

    No link to the original Ars Technica article?

    1. Re:No linky? by shanen · · Score: 1

      First link.

      Not to be confused with first post.

      However I think you [chrism238] can probably claim to be first to not read the article before commenting.

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    2. Re:No linky? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      WTF? Your UID is lower than mine, you should know that all good slashdotters don't RTFS, let alone RTFA...

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      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    3. Re:No linky? by shanen · · Score: 1

      I was obviously going for snide. Three levels of snide, actually.

      Snark hunting on today's Slashdot? Seems so pointless.

      I certainly hope you don't work in a technical field, because your reasoning capabilities are obviously deficient. Most obviously, I did NOT limit my comment to your "good slashdotters" and made no assumptions about the OP. At this point I think most of the "good slashdotters" of yore are RIP. (That is usually a cue for some 3-digit ID to pipe up, eh? "I'm still alive!")

      Seems to be another call for the ancient advice: "If you have nothing to say, then perhaps you should say nothing."

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  3. More suggestions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    1) Tim Cook as Apple CEO
    2) Windows 10, or at least its update cycle
    3) Elon Musk as Tesla CEO
    4) MoviePass
    5) Smartphones without notches
    6) APK spam on Slashdot

    Wish list:
    1) Ajit Pai as FCC chairman
    2) Systemd

    1. Re:More suggestions by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure MoviePass already died.

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    2. Re:More suggestions by Bearhouse · · Score: 1

      Great list; mod up!

    3. Re:More suggestions by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      2) Windows 10, or at least its update cycle

      Microsoft is doubling down on their update cycle, and getting as close to continuous integration as they can. In practice the closest they can get is probably weekly releases.

      So get ready for weekly releases of Windows! Hey, no complaining, all the cool kids are doing it!

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  4. Postmortems of the overlooked? by shanen · · Score: 2

    It was an interesting and enjoyable story, but the thing that seemed to be missing was missed picks, as in "Who died without getting listed?", "Which major companies went bust without making the list?", or even "What was the largest collapse that should have been picked?" Focusing on the near-death cases seems relatively easy (at least in terms of the mostly obvious candidates they discussed), but I feel like there might be more to learn from a few postmortems of overlooked failures.

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    1. Re:Postmortems of the overlooked? by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      If you want that answer, look at the retail B&M market. That's where the businesses that died nobody even heard about happened.

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      Om, nomnomnom...
    2. Re:Postmortems of the overlooked? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Informative

      I think the biggest tech failure of 2018 was Theranos.

      Here is a list of 25 other tech flameouts. I never heard of most of them.

      Outside of tech, I think the biggest failure was Sears.

    3. Re:Postmortems of the overlooked? by shanen · · Score: 1

      Thanks, highly informative response, though I still wonder how they missed the Ars Technica list. Theranos in particular seems like it should have been noticed. As it notes, the rest of them were relatively tiny companies, so maybe that's sufficient explanation.

      Sears is probably outside of the scope of Ars Technica. Also it's been a long and pretty visible decline.

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  5. Goop isn't going anywhere by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    People love 1) alternative medicine, and 2) shoving inanimate objects up their holes. Goop was just smart enough to tap into the market where those two segments overlap.

  6. Lifestyle Brand ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 2

    What people can't even figure out how they want to live for themselves anymore ?

    We may be done for as a species.

    1. Re:Lifestyle Brand ? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Humans are social creatures. It's nothing new.

      --
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      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    2. Re:Lifestyle Brand ? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      A lifestyle brand is one that matches your lifestyle. "I like yoga, so I buy yoga-themed things." "I like C64, so I buy everything in rainbows and all my music is chiptunes."

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  7. Essential phone, android with a couple of gimmicks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    I'v never heard of it before so I googled.

    It's a reasonable spec android phone. The one vaguely attractive aspect is a claim of rapid release of updates, sadly not a promise of just security updates for significantly risky vulnerabilities, just fast updates which might mean rapidly implementing things like google not allowing call recording any more.

    It has magnetically attached accessories. I don't want the magnetic strips on my train tickets and payment cards erased when I shove them in my pocket with my phone in a rush. A headphone jack requires a $149 centimetre thick extra thing on the back of the phone

    It has an extra camera for black and white photos. An add-on 3D camera is sold for $49.

    I don't care in the slightest if they go out of business.

     

  8. How accurate were their past lists? by Solandri · · Score: 5, Informative
    I always like to cross-check with past performance to see if a list is actually the result of good research, or just an opinion piece disguised as journalism.
    • 2018: Uber, Twitter, Faraday Future, LeEco, Net Neutrality, HTC, SoundCloud
    • 2017: Yahoo, Yik Yak, Twitter, Theranos (kinda obvious), HTC, Gearbox Software, Blackberry
    • 2016: Yahoo, HTC, Blackberry OS, Groupon, Rdio and Tidal
    • 2015: No results on Google
    • 2014: Radio Shack, Blackberry, HTC, Zynga, AMD

    So how good is their track record?

    • Radio Shack (2014) - bankrupt 2015, 1 year after placed on list
    • Blackberry (2014, 2017) - still around, but effectively dead since they no longer make phones as of 2016
    • HTC (2014, 2016, 2017, 2018) - still around, though its market share has dropped below 1%
    • Zynga (2014) - still around, seems to have stabilized since 2014
    • AMD (2014) - still around, best performing stock of 2018
    • Yahoo (2016, 2017) - swallowed up by Verizon in 2017, so premature call in 2016, full credit for 2017
    • Blackberry OS (2016) - killed in 2016 when they ceased making phones
    • Groupon (2016) - they had a bad 2016, but were in the black in 2017
    • Rdio and Tidal (2016) - Rdio died 2016, Tidal was swallowed by Sprint in Jan 2017, so we'll give Ars credit for this one
    • Yik Yak (2017) - died 2017
    • Theranos (2017) - died in 2018, kinda obvious it was dead
    • Gearbox Software (2017) - still around, though I can't find recent financials
    • Uber (2018) - still around, but took massive losses (-$2.8 billion) in 2018
    • Twitter (2018) - as much as I hate twitter, they seem to have recovered in 2018
    • Faraday Future (2018) - still around but looks likely to die this year
    • LeEco (2018) - still around but on life support, will give Ars credit for this one
    • Net Neutrality (2018) - dead, but kinda obvious
    • SoundCloud (2018) - still around, but still losing money, and expected to keep losing money through 2019

    Final tally:
    7 correct
    3 premature by one year, one obvious (Radio Shack, Yahoo, Theranos)
    9 wrong
    4 unknown (Gearbox, Uber, Faraday Future, SoundCloud)

    So they're batting around .500. Not exactly stellar.

    1. Re:How accurate were their past lists? by TFlan91 · · Score: 1

      If you continue with your baseball reference, you're right a .500 average is not exactly stellar, its amazing.

    2. Re:How accurate were their past lists? by Espectr0 · · Score: 1

      HTC was about to close down before Google bought them so you can count them in the dead pile

  9. Re:Essential phone, android with a couple of gimmi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I stopped reading at headphone jack! Nuke them (Essentials) from orbit! Burn them at the stake! Kill their offspring so they can't spawn more! Die die die!

    The headphone jacks u back bitches!

  10. Batting .500? by skam240 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I got a kick out of how you used that baseball analogy for this. Batting .500 would in fact be almost god like in modern baseball. Even .400 isn't really considered attainable anymore.

    This doesn't invalidate what you're actually getting at of course, it just means your analogy is terrible.

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  11. They forgot one by slashmydots · · Score: 1

    Don't forget Apple.

  12. musk and whole of tesla depends on next years numb by gl4ss · · Score: 1

    musk and whole of tesla depends on next years numbers... anyways, the problem for him was that for 10 years he managed to keep the money rolling in with the tweets.

    that is literally what he thinks that kept the investment money rolling in. you can even trace old popular mechanics ideas touted as new ideas on his tweets to tesla needing cash.

    so he thinks thats whats normal, and that it isn't a piss poor idea to have an official company outlet for (stock)news be his twitter account. for various reasons, one of which is that twitter could just ban it for funzies or delete a tweet or two for funzies and thats pretty bad from investor liability viewpoint. you should control your official information.

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